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Kamis, 28 Juli 2011

Weekly Economic Research (27-Jul-2011) - Resolution on European debt problem boosts sentiment - Mandiri

Market review
§ The agreement between European leaders and the IMF to extend second bailout for Greece amounting around 159bn euro relieved concern on European debt crisis. Overall, market responded positively. The rupiah appreciated to Rp8,524/US$ (0.2% wow), while the stock market rallied to its new high of 4,107 (2.1% wow).

Global economic update
· The second Greece financial bailout required private sector participation.
· US housing sales figure in Jun showed mix result, suggesting recovery remains fragile.
· Both China's and Europe's PMI points the economy growth is likely to decelerate further in the coming quarter.

Domestic economic update
· Indonesia direct investment rose 22% in 2Q11 to Rp62tn, with FDI amounting around Rp43.1tn. Government’s Rp240tn (15% increase from last year) direct investment target seems to be achievable.
· The parliament approved higher fuel subsidy spending in revised budget, thus reduces the likelihood of fuel price increase this year.
· Fitch sees potential upgrade of Indonesia sovereign rating to investment grade in the next 12-18mo.

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