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Rabu, 27 Juli 2011

Bukit Asam: 1H11 results 47.1% ours and 45.4% consensus (PTBA, Rp20,900, Buy, TP: Rp23,950) - Mandiri

􀂄 PTBA posted 1H11 revenue of Rp5,119bn (+34.9%yoy, +21.1% qoq) followed by net profit of Rp1,611bn (+77.4%yoy, +11.9%qoq), relatively in line with our estimates and consensus represent 45-47% FY11F considering seasonal factor.
􀂄 Total average selling price (ASP) in 1H11 jumped to Rp843k/ton (+43.1%yoy, +22.8%qoq). Mostly driven by robust coal export’s ASP in 2Q11 which increased by 20%qoq up to US$103/ton following tsunami incident in Japan. Cummulatively in 1H11’s coal export ASP was posted at US$98.8/ton, increased by 62% yoy. It has surpassed our FY11F assumption; therefore it will lead to earnings upgrade possibility.
􀂄 Interestingly PTBA’s upbeat coal price in 2Q11 would suggest strong positive sentiment to other coal companies which have similar coal quality like BUMI, ITMG and HRUM.
􀂄 Sales volume in 1H11 was 6.5Mt (+1.6%yoy, +12.5% qoq), a slightly lower than internal target due to lower trading volume from Kalimantan region that still faced wet weather in 2Q11. In 1H11 PTBA produced 6.2Mt coal, +6%yoy, including 0.24Mt from IPC in Kalimantan
􀂄 Strip ratio was 3.67x lower than previous year of 3.87x and coal railway capacities in 1H11increased by 11%yoy up to 5.63Mt.
􀂄 Lower operating margin in 2Q11 down to 36.6% vs 40.8% in 1Q11 was mainly driven by higher salaries expenses following bonus payment, higher rental fee and higher trading activities
􀂄 Currently we have Neutral rating on the stock. PTBA is traded at 14.1x-10.7x PER11F-12F.

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