Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 29 Juli 2011

BDMN: NIM erosion - Mandiri

While 2Q results are usually exciting for banks, this is not the case for Bank Danamon (BDMN). Net profit fell by 6.9% qoq to Rp710bn in 2Q11 despite 7.8% qoq growth in loans. The management claimed it as a result of tighter competition that pushed lending rates to fall. We therefore downgraded our earning forecast for the bank by 13.3% for FY11 and 8.5% for FY12. Rolling our valuation into 2012 led us to a new TP of Rp5,900/share (post rights issue), which was a decline from Rp6,300/share previously. Maintain neutral.

Lower loan yield… BDMN reported strong loan growth in 2Q11 of 7.8% qoq or 30.4% yoy, which was particularly derived from wholesale segment (+13.7% qoq or 33.3% yoy), SME segment (+9.2% qoq or 28.8% yoy) and mass market segment (+6.5% qoq or 36.5% yoy). Included in the mass market segment was loans booked by Adira Finance which grew by 7.8% qoq or 46.0% yoy. Despite such strong growth, tighter competition in the market pushed lending rate to fall. The lending rate for motorcycle financing, for instance, has been cut from 25% p.a in 1H10 to 22% p.a in 1H11. We estimate the average loan yield of 18.3% in 1H11, a decline from 19.8% in 1Q11, which caused NIM to slightly decline to 10.0% in 1H11 from 10.2% in 1Q11.

Improved asset quality, yet cost of credit rose. The bank’s NPL fell to 2.9% at end Jun11 from 3.0% at end Mar11. Yet, it is worth noting that the bank wrote off around Rp568.4bn of bad loans in 2Q11, an increase from Rp553.8 bn in 1Q11. This led to a higher cost of credit of 3.3% from 3.0% in 1Q11.

Lower TP, maintain neutral. BDMN will hold a 144-for-1,000 rights issue with offering price between Rp4,100-Rp4,800, translating into total fresh funds of Rp5.0 tn - Rp5.8 tn. CAR (bank only) is estimated to reach 16.98% post rights issue from 12.2% at end Jun11. We estimate that post rights issue, BVPS will increase by 6.0% - 9.2%, which is actually quite attractive. However, fierce competition will likely lead to lower ROAE, thus limiting organic equity expansion in the future. If this prevails, the need for another capital raising in a relatively shorter period is likely, which will expose investors to another dilution risk. We therefore lowered our sustainable ROAE assumption in deriving the bank’s target price from previously 21% to 18%, which coupled with 13.3% and 8.5% downgrade in earning forecast for FY11 and FY12, respectively, led to a TP of Rp5,900/share based on 2012F BVPS (post rights issue at Rp4,100/share). This is lower than our previous TP of Rp6,300/share. Maintain neutral.

Tidak ada komentar:

Poskan Komentar