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Rabu, 27 Juli 2011

Bank Negara Indonesia Momentum on track (Buy; Rp4,025; TP Rp5,000; BBNI IJ) - DBS

At a Glance
 1H11 net profit of Rp2.7trn comprised 53%/52% of our/consensus estimates. Costs are likely to escalate in 2H11.
 Loans grew strongly at 10% q-o-q but deposit growth fell short.
 Maintain Buy and Rp5,000 TP.

Comment on Results
2Q11 earnings were driven by higher NIM. Loan yields increased across segments and would be sustainable while cost of funds remained relatively stable. We understand that BBNI had given out lower yielding short-term loans in 1Q11 as it had excess funds (largely from the rights issue), but these would be the case going forward. Non-interest income improved with higher fees and commissions. Opportunities for cross-selling of insurance products are likely for future growth. We understand that BBNI was not significantly hit with the re-pricing of its variable rate for
government recap bonds from the 3-month SBI rate to the 3-month SPN rate. Bulk of its government recap bonds will mature in 2017. Operating expenses appear to be low currently but it is expected to inch up in 2H11. Y-o-y, costs was within control with the absence of the voluntary pension program and golden handshake payments it made to 1,200 employees to rationalize its workforce over 2008-10.

Loan growth excelled but deposits fell short. Loans grew by a strong 10% q-o-q in 2Q11, led mainly by corporate, medium and consumer segments. Deposit growth fell short of expectations as BBNI continued to flush out expensive corporate deposits which accounted to as much as 10% of total deposits. Management hinted that it may not achieve its target of 12-15% total deposit growth for the full year but it aims to continue growing CASA (6.4% growth YTD) which we believe would further help boost its NIM for the rest of the year. Asset quality, which has been management’s key focus for the year continued to improve (NPL ratio at 4.0%, loan loss coverage at 121%). Small loans segment’s (loan size
Maintain Buy with Rp5,000 TP. BBNI is still among the cheapest Indonesian banking stocks with strong growth prospects. Its relatively low LDR (76%) and high CASA to total deposits (61%) continue to drive growth. Our Rp5,000 TP is based on the Gordon
Growth Model with the following assumptions: 18% ROE, 13% growth and 15% cost of equity, and implies 2.2x FY12 P/BV.

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