Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 05 Maret 2011

BI Rate tetap, saham bank angkat IHSG 1,38% ke 3.542,90 - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Indeks saham di bursa Indonesia sore ini ditutup naik 1,38% ke posisi 3.542,90, ditopang oleh penguatan saham perbankan dan indeks saham di bursa Asia Pasifik.

Harga saham perbankan melonjak setelah Bank Indonesia tetap menahan suku bunga acuan di posisi 6,75% hari ini.

Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, dari 422 saham yang dikalkulasi oleh indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG), sebanyak 98 saham harganya naik, 100 saham menurun, dan 224 saham stagnan.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia menjadi penyumbang terbesar kenaikan IHSG dengan kontribusi 7,96 poin, Bank Central Asia 5,78 poin, Bank Mandiri 5,48 poin, dan Astra International 3,84 poin.

Namun, penguatan IHSG ditahan oleh penurunan harga saham Bank Internasional Indonesia 1,98 poin, Bumi Resources 1,23 poin, Telekomunikasi Indonesia 1,19 poin, dan Elang Mahkota Teknologi.

Pelemahan harga saham Bumi terjadi justru setelah Grup Bakrie mengumumkan transfer 5,19 miliar saham Bumi kepada Vallar Plc sore ini. Saham Elang Mahkota jatuh setelah mengumumkan rencana akuisisi saham Indosiar Karya Media di level Rp900 per saham.

Indeks BISNIS27 sore ini ditutup naik 1,98% ke 310,65, sedangkan rupiah menguat 0,18% ke Rp8.792 terhadap dolar AS dari posisi kemarin Rp8.808.

Di Asia Pasifik, Nikkei 225 di Jepang naik 1,02% ke 10.693,66. Hang Seng di Hong Kong menanjak 1,24% ke 23.408,86.

Indeks Shanghai SE di China menguat 1,35% ke 2.942,31, sedangkan Taiwan Taiex menanjak 0,53% ke 8.784,40.

Kospi di Korsel dan Straits Times di Singapura sore ini juga di area hijau sebesar 1,73% dan 1,05% di posisi 2.004,68 dan 3.068,13.

Gali Lubang Tutup Lubang, Bakrie Kembali Ngutang US$ 600 Juta - Detikfinance

Jakarta - PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) dan Long Haul Holdings Ltd (LHH), suatu perusahan yang berkedudukan di Nevis, West Indies, mendapat fasilitas pinjaman US$ 1,345 miliar dari Credit Suisse AG, cabang Singapura sebagai Structuring Agent.

Menurut Sekretaris Perusahaan BNBR Sri Dharmayanti, jatah pinjaman yang menjadi hak perusahaan Grup Bakrie itu sebanyak US$ 601,75 juta.

"Hasil dari pinjaman itu sebagian besar digunakan untuk melunasi kewajiban-kewajiban perseroan yang ada saat ini," katanya dalam keterbukaan informasi di situs resmi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Jumat (4/3/2011).

Ia mengatakan, kewajiban perseroan dari perjanjian fasilitas pinjaman itu terpisah dari kewajiban LHH.

Bakrie transfers Bumi shares to Vallar - Insider Stories

After 10 times crossing transactions via seven brokerage, as much as 10.38 million lots of shares or 5.19 billion shares of PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI-coded stock) successfully transferred to Vallar Plc at 02:02 pm.

Based on data of Indonesia Stock Exchange, J.P Morgan Securities bought 5.19 billion shares or 25% of BUMI shares. Credit Suisse Securities is the selling brokerage of this action.

The number of shares that change hands is equal with 25% of BUMI shares which transferred by PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) and Long Haul, a company owned by Bakrie, to Vallar Plc at a price of Rp2,500 per share.
“With crossing share transaction, Bakrie Group has fulfilled its commitment to finalize the transaction today,” said one of the market players who are close to the matter. BUMI climbed 0.81% to Rp3,100 per share in this afternoon.

Saham Garuda mulai melayang di kisaran wajar - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Harga saham PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk saat ini dinilai sudah masuk dalam kisaran wajar dan kemungkinan akan stabil di posisi saat ini.
Head of Research Universal Broker Indonesia Satrio Utomo mengatakan kenaikan harga saham Garuda menunggu momentum keluarnya laporan keuangan full year 2010.

"Kondisi pasar saat ini sedang bagus, dan kenaikan harga saham Garuda sebenarnya tinggal menunggu waktu. Saat ini harga saham Garuda masuk dalam range yang rasional," ujarnya hari ini.

Harga saham Garuda pada penutupan sore ini berada di level Rp520 per saham atau naik sebesar 1,96% dari penutupan kemarin yang berada di level Rp510 per saham. Harga saham maskapai penerbangan ini sebelumnya mengalami penurunan setelah melantai di bursa.

Pada debut awalnya, emiten berkode GIAA ini dilepas di harga Rp750 per saham. namun harga tersebut tidak mengalami kenaikan, dan justru turun hingga di level saat ini.

Sebelumnya, tiga underwriter yaitu PT Bahana Securities, PT Danareksa Sekuritas, serta PT Mandiri Sekuritas sempat mengusulkan harga IPO di kisaran Rp500-Rp650 per saham. Namun, Kementerian BUMN memasang di kisaran harga Rp750-Rp1.100 per saham.

Satrio Utomo menyatakan bahwa pihaknya optimistis dengan kinerja Garuda ke depan, termasuk langkah ekspansi yang dilakukan perseroan.

Sebagaimana diketahui, Garuda akan menambah armada pesawatnya setelah menggelar IPO. Perseroan menargetkan memiliki armada sebanyak 153 unit pada 2015, dari saat ini sebanyak 84 unit.

Selain Boeing 737-800 NG, perseroan juga akan menambah pesawat jenis Airbus A330-200 serta Boeing 777.

Terkait dengan pengadaan A330-200 dan Boeing 777, perseroan akan menggelar tender untuk mendapatkan fasilitas leasing pembiayaan 20 unit pesawat jenis Airbus 330-200 dan Boeing 777.

Plt Direktur Keuangan Garuda Elisa Lumbantoruan mengatakan perseroan akan menambah 10 unit pesawat jenis Airbus 330-200 dan 10 unit Boeing 777 untuk ekspansi rut eke berbagai negara.

"Pesawat-pesawat tersebut akan kami datangkan pada 2013, dan kami akan membuka rute-rute baru di luar negeri mulai tahun tersebut setelah pesawat yang kami pesan tersedia," ujarnya.

Menurut Elisa, perseroan ingin mendapatkan fasilitas leasing dengan rate yang kompetitif melalui tender. Garuda akan menggunakan dana dari penawaran publik perdana (initial public offering/IPO) untuk pre delivery payment. (ea)

Wall St ends the week flat as oil prices weigh - Reuters

(Reuters) - Wall Street erased most of its weekly gains on Friday as fears of more geopolitical turmoil and higher oil prices threaten to stifle rallies in coming weeks.

The worries overshadowed strong labor market news. U.S. unemployment fell below 9 percent for the first time in nearly two years, but investors quickly turned to focus on intensified fighting in Libya and simmering unrest throughout the region.

Brent crude prices rose above $116 a barrel and the CBOE Volatility Index VIX .VIX, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, rose 2.7 percent to 19.11.

"After the kind of rally we had, the market is more vulnerable to news events and more so these days on a spike in oil prices," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in Austin, Texas.

Data earlier in the week had raised expectations about Friday's employment report, lifting stocks to their biggest gains in three months on Thursday.

But bank shares fell after Bank of America Merrill Lynch said first-quarter earnings could be hurt by rising oil prices as well as by reduced client activity.

The brokerage downgraded shares of Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) to "neutral" from "buy."

Goldman fell 2.1 percent to $161.00 and Citi dropped 3 percent to $4.54. The KBW bank index .BKX lost 1.5 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 88.32 points, or 0.72 percent, at 12,169.88. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 9.82 points, or 0.74 percent, at 1,321.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 14.07 points, or 0.50 percent, at 2,784.67.

For the week, the Dow rose 0.3 percent and the S&P and the Nasdaq both gained 0.1 percent.

About 7.73 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

The Labor Department said payrolls rose by 192,000 in February, slightly above the 185,000 gain forecast in a Reuters poll, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 8.9 percent from 9 percent.

Among consumer-related shares, the homebuilding sector was hurt the most. The PHLX housing index .HGX fell 1.3 percent with Weyerhaeuser (WY.N) down 2.2 percent to $23.57. KB Home (KBH.N) shares dropped 2.6 percent to $13.08 and MDC Holdings (MDC.N) fell 2.6 percent to $24.99.

Richards Bay Coal Terminal Shipments Declined 7.4% in February - Bloomberg

Richards Bay Coal Terminal Ltd., Africa’s largest export facility for the fuel, said shipments fell 7.4 percent last month. Shipments from the port on South Africa’s northeast coast dropped to 4.57 million metric tons in February from 4.94 million tons a year earlier,

RBCT said today on its website, without giving a reason.
RBCT, whose owners include BHP Billiton Ltd. and Anglo American Plc, said in January that first-quarter exports will be affected by train derailments following heavy rains. The reduced rail service forced coal suppliers to tap stockpiles, which shrank to 1.7 million tons at the end of 2010 from 2.98 million tons on Nov. 30.
Prices for coal traded through RBCT rose 22 percent to an average $117.84 a ton in February from a month earlier, according to IHS McCloskey data on Bloomberg. The port received 5.52 million tons during the month, and had stocks of 2.8 million tons, said RBCT, which has capacity to export 91 million tons annually.

The freight rail unit of state-owned Transnet Ltd. aims to deliver 68 million tons of coal to the port this year, up from 63 million tons last year, Mxolisi Mgojo, head of coal at mining company Exxaro Resources Ltd., said Feb. 24. Transnet Freight Rail will comment later, Sandile Simelane, a spokesman for the unit, said today by mobile phone.

NYMEX-Crude near 2-1/2 year peak on Libya fighting - Reuters

* Fierce fighting between loyalists, rebels in Libya

* Supply fears push U.S. crude to near 2-1/2 year high

* U.S. crude discount to Brent narrows to $11.55 at close

* Coming up: API petroleum data, 4:40 p.m. EST Tuesday

NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose
to a near 2-1/2 year high on Friday as fierce fighting between
loyalists to Libya's Muammar Gaddaffi and rebels seeking to
oust him from power raised more fears of supply disruptions.

Upbeat U.S. jobs data helped lift crude futures at a faster
pace than their Brent counterpart traded in London, narrowing
the discount of U.S. crude against Brent to $11.55 a barrel
from $12.88 at the close on Thursday.

Crude oil gained for the third day in four. Prices fell on
Thursday after Venezuela offered to mediate a resolution to the
conflict that has seen Libyan output fall by about 1.0 million
barrels a day.

FUNDAMENTALS

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for April
delivery CLJ1 settled at $104.42 a barrel, gaining $2.51, or
2.46 percent, the highest since the Sept. 26, 2008 close at
$106.89. The contract traded from $101.54 to $104.60.

* In post-settlement trading, the contract shot up to
$105.17, the highest intraday since Sept. 29, 2008's $106.91.

* For the week, NYMEX front-month crude gained $6.54, or
6.7 percent, after rising $11.68, or 13.5 percent, in the week
to Feb. 25. Prices rose for the third week in a row.

* In London, ICE April Brent LCOJ1 settled more than 1
percent higher, near $116. For the week, front-month Brent
crude rose $3.83, or 3.42 percent, after surging $9.62, or 9.38
percent, in the week to Feb. 25. Brent crude prices gained for
the sixth consecutive week.

* NYMEX April RBOB RBJ1 ended higher and for the week
jumped 30.69 cents, or 11.2 percent, the biggest weekly
percentage gain since the week to Oct. 16, 2009, when RBOB rose
11.95 percent.

* NYMEX April heating oil HOJ1 closed up and for the week
advanced 15.84 cents, or 5.4 percent, after gaining 21.8 cents,
or 8.04 percent, in week to Feb. 25.

* Speculators increased net long positions in U.S. crude
oil futures by 30 percent to an all-time high 268,622 in the
week to March 1, data from the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission showed. [ID:nN04234225]

* U.S. payrolls rose 192,000 in February, slightly above
the 185,000 gain forecast in a Reuters poll, and the jobless
rate unexpectedly dipped to 8.9 percent, nearly a two-year low,
from 9 percent in January. [ID:nOAT004757]

* Loyalists to Libya's Muammar Gaddafi fought their way
into Zawiyah, about 50 km (30 miles) west of Tripoli, killing a
rebel commander and pinning fighters into pockets of
resistance. [ID:nLDE7231X0]

* Rebels against Gaddafi said they had captured the eastern
oil town of Ras Lanuf, extending their hold on eastern Libya.
[ID:nLDE72300M]

* For a FACTBOX on the latest developments in the Middle
East and North Africa, click on [ID:nLDE7231SG]

Bakrie & Long Haul raih utang Rp11,77 triliun dari Credit Suisse - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Dua perusahaan kendaraan milik keluarga Bakrie PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) and Long Haul Holdings Ltd mengantongi fasilitas pinjaman US$1,34 miliar atau setara dengan Rp11,77 triliun pada 2 Maret dari Credit Suisse AG, Singapura.

Berdasarkan keterbukaan informasi yang disampaikan kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia sore ini, dari pinjaman itu, Bakrie & Brothers menerima US$601,75 juta atau setara dengan Rp5,29 triliun, selebihnya diterima oleh Long Haul.

"Hasil dari pinjaman itu sebagian besar digunakan untuk melunasi kewajiban-kewajiban perseroan yang ada saat ini," ujar Direktur dan Corporate Secretary Bakrie R.A. Sri Dharmayanti dalam keterbukaan informasi itu.

Namun, dia tidak menjelaskan secara jelas kewajiban yang mana yang akan dilunasi tersebut.

Transaksi pinjaman itu bukan merupakan transaksi afiliasi.

Pada saat yang sama, Bakrie & Brothers dan Long Haul telah memindahkan 5,19 miliar saham Bumi atau 25% kepada Vallar Plc.

Bakrie mengalihkan 2,85 miliar saham Bumi dari rekening kustodian di Credit Suisse ke rekening kustodian Vallar di J.P.Morgan.

Long Haul memindahkan 2,34 miliar saham Bumi dari rekening kustodian di Credit Suisse ke rekening kustodian milik Vallar di JP Morgan.

Pemindahan saham itu dilaksanakan melalui transaksi crossing di pasar hari ini pada harga Rp2.500 per saham.

Wintermar Buat Anak Usaha Kapal Tongkang - Investor Daily

JAKARTA - PT Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk memastikan telah membuat usaha patungan dengan mendirikan anak usaha khusus mengelola kapal tongkang untuk membidik pasar pendukung konstruksi minyak dan gas (migas) lepas pantai di Indonesia dan regional.

"Kami membuat anak usaha baru bernama PT Winpan berbendera Indonesia, khusus mengelola tongkang untuk alat berat dan konstruksi platt-form migas lepas pantai," kata Managing Director PT Wintermar Offshore Marin Sugiman Layanto saat dihubungi di Jakarta, Jumat.

Layanto melanjutkan, kepemilikan saham anak usaha baru itu adalah 49 persen oleh PT Linpan dan PT Wintermar 51 persen.

"Pada tahap awal, anak usaha ini akan mengelola satu set kapal tongkang senilai 8 juta dolar AS yang kini sedang dikerjakan di sebuah galangan di Tiongkok dan akan dikirim pada pertengahan tahun ini," katanya.

Ukuran kapal tongkang tersebut sebesar 330 X 120 X 70 dan berbobot 10.000 DWT.

Investor Relation PT Wintermar Offshore Marine, Pek Swan Layanto, mengatakan terobosan membuat anak usaha khusus yang mengelola tongkang tersebut merupakan bagian dari tekad perseroan yang akan fokus untuk melakukan pengadaan kapal yang masih langka di Indonesia.

PT Wintermar Offshore Marine saat ini memiliki lebih dari 60 kapal yang melayani kegiatan eksplorasi dan produksi minyak dan gas di sektor hulu.

Berau Coal sets US$106.3 mio capex - Insider Stories

Indonesia's fifth largest thermal coal miner PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU) is aiming to spend US$106.3 million of capital expenditure (capex) this year, while coal production is set at 20.4 million tons.

In an official prospectus published by Vallar Plc pages 154, in relation to acquisition of two coal major assets in Indonesia BRAU and PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), Berau Energy is estimated to produce 17.4 million tons of coal last year. During the first 11 months of last year, BRAU might produce 11.8 million tons.
The capex is intended to jack up production and installed capacity in coming years. About US$11.4 million will be used for land improvement measures, US$21.9 million of routine operating investment, and US$37.7 million of exploration and development activities.

By 2014, BRAU is targeted to reach 30 million tons of coal production with capex spending of US$304.9 million during 2012-2014. At end of this year, BRAU's production capacity is expected to reach 24 million tons.

Iron Ore-Spot extends losses, China steel futures hit 3-mth low - Reuters

Spot iron ore prices continued to lose ground on Friday on weak demand from top consumer China as a decline in Shanghai steel futures to three-month lows discouraged mills from buying more of the raw material.

Falling steel prices and huge stockpiles of iron ore at China ports, which had topped 80 million tonnes, are keeping mills and traders from snapping up supplies even as exports from No. 3 supplier India are bound to get more costly after the country raised export taxes on iron ore fines to 20 percent from 5 percent.
India also raised freight rates on iron ore exports, which should further curb shipments of the material out of the country that have already fallen for a seventh straight month in January.

Indian ore with 63.5 percent iron content was quoted at $183-$185 a tonne, including freight, on Friday, down from $187 the previous day, said Chinese consultancy Mysteel.
Indian producer Essel Mining sold a 63.5/63 grade cargo at$182 per tonne, cost and freight to China, said Dhruv Goel, managing partner at Steelmint in India's eastern Orissa state.
Sesa Goa , India's top iron ore exporter, sold a lower 52/52 grade cargo at $82.50 a tonne, C&F, to China, added Goel.

"Buying interest is very, very low. Customers are only interested in buying cargoes from the port because they're cheaper," said a Singapore-based iron ore trader.
"Unless we see Chinese steel prices go up, the interest will remain dim and mills will only be buying very minimum volumes because their order book might not be that strong."

The most active rebar contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to as low as 4,770 yuan per tonne on Friday, its weakest since Dec. 1, before closing nearly flat at 4,816 yuan.
TIGHTER LIQUIDITY
Shanghai rebar futures hit a series of record highs in early February because of rising input cost and in anticipation of a pickup in Chinese construction activity in spring.

Iron ore spot prices similarly zoomed to all-time highs at that time before a correction in Chinese steel futures triggered a decline.
"I think mills have really run out of money, the liquidity tightness is affecting them. I've heard a lot of companies including steel mills are asking bankers everyday if their loan is ready," said an iron ore trader in Shanghai.
"So that might be a limiting factor."

China has been tightening monetary policy to tame inflation, both by raising interest rates and bank cash reserve requirements. Beijing has been increasing reserve requirement at a pace of about once a month since October and local media has reported another hike may be underway this month.

"Construction is very uncertain now with the new policies in place in China restricting people from buying properties. Although prices are still firm there might be some reservation about building new projects," said the Shanghai trader.
Key iron ore indexes, which global miners use in setting quarterly contract prices, extended losses on Thursday.
Platts 62 percent iron ore benchmark IODBZ00-PLT fell a dollar to $180 a tonne. It has lost 6.7 percent in the past 11 sessions since hitting a record high of $193 in mid-February.

The Steel Index's 62 percent gauge .IO62-CNI=SI slipped 10 cents to $177.90 and Metal Bulletin's index .IO62-CNO=MB dropped $1.46 to $177.83.
But forward swaps still at a discount to spot prices, were mostly firmer.
The Singapore Exchange-cleared April contract rose almost $3 to $165.37 a tonne, May gained $2.43 to $162.33 and June climbed $1.07 to $159.67.

Oil prices hit highest level since September 2008 - The Economic Times

NEW YORK: Oil prices hit a fresh two-year intraday high after the U.S. government said the unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent in February.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery gained $1.07 to $102.98 per barrel in New York. The price hit $103.57 per barrel earlier in electronic trading, the highest since Sept. 29, 2008.

The Labor Department said the economy added 192,000 jobs last month. More jobs means more cars in the morning commute at a time when world oil supplies are under pressure because of the crisis in Libya.

In Libya , tensions escalated further on Friday as forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi used tear gas to repel protestors marching on Tripoli. Most of Libya's oil production has been shut down because of the crisis.

BRI Perbesar Bisnis Bank Agro di Sektor Pertanian - Infobank

Arah pengembangan bisnis BRI, khususnya ke sektor pertanian untuk tumbuh lebih cepat dinilai memerlukan kemampuan dan kapasitas Bank Agro yang telah lama menggarap agribisnis di Indonesia. Paulus Yoga

Jakarta–PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (persero) Tbk yang telah resmi menjadi pemegang saham pengendali PT Bank Agroniaga Tbk, akan mengarahkan Bank Agro menjadi bank komersial terkemuka yang fokus pada sektor pertanian dalam mendukung pengembangan agribisnis di Indonesia.

“Bank Agro pasca akuisisi diupayakan mampu menyediakan produk dan jasa perbankan pada seluruh lapisan masyarakat dan pembiayaan akan difokuskan pada segmen Usaha Kecil dan Menengah (UKM) khususnya sektor agribisnis,” ujar Direktur Utama BRI Sofyan Basir dalam siaran persnya di Jakarta, Kamis, 3 Maret 2011.

Menurutnya, arah pengembangan Bank Agro pasca akuisisi tidak dapat dilepaskan dari arah pengembangan BRI secara keseluruhan.

Proses akuisisi tersebut diambil BRI setelah melihat potensi pertumbuhan sektor agribisnis masih sangat besar di Indonesia, maka strategi pertumbuhan secara non organik dengan mengakuisisi Bank Agro diyakini merupakan langkah awal yang tepat.

“Fokus bisnis Bank Agro di sektor agribisnis dan dukungan para stakeholders Bank Agro diharapkan mampu mempercepat penetrasi BRI ke sektor Agribisnis. Potensi sinergi yang signifikan bagi BRI dihasilkan dari aspek distribusi (cross selling products) mengingat stakeholders Bank Agro seperti Dana Pensiun Perkebunan dan PTPN merupakan nasabah yang
cukup berpotensi bagi Bank BRI,” terang Sofyan.

Ia menambahkan, potensi sinergi lain yang diharapkan adalah dalam hal penyediaan layanan perbankan yang lebih luas
khususnya di sektor agribisnis baik kepada stakeholders Bank Agro maupun BRI yang pada gilirannya akan memperkuat posisi BRI di segmen UKM khususnya di sektor agribisnis.

“Sedangkan bagi Bank Agro, keberadaan dan dukungan dari BRI dalam permodalan, teknologi dan infrastruktur akan meningkatkan daya saing, credit standing dan jangkauan pasar Bank Agro sehingga Bank Agro akan dapat mewujudkan visi dan misi-nya secara lebih optimal,” pungkasnya.

Santos Akan Perbaiki Anjungan Maleo di Madura - Antara

Jakarta (ANTARA News) - Perusahaan tambang asal Australia, Santos, mengumumkan akan mengerjakan perbaikan pada anjungan produksi dari daerah lapangan lepas pantai Maleo di Selat Madura, Jawa Timur, yang telah memproduksi gas untuk banyak industri.

Siaran pers Santos yang diterima ANTARA di Jakarta, Jumat malam menyebutkan, hasil inspeksi rutin pada anjungan Maleo yang disewa Santos menunjukkan perlunya dilakukan pengerjaan perbaikan pada fasilitas produksi bergerak ("mobile oil production unit"/MOPU).

Perbaikan tersebut rencananya akan dilaksanakan antara bulan April dan Juni 2011. Dalam tenggang waktu itu terdapat kemungkinan penghentian operasi sementara ("temporary shutdown") sekitar 15 hari untuk memartikan agar upaya perbaikan berjalan aman dan efisien.

Santos juga bekerja sama dengan BP Migas berupaya meminimalkan kemungkinan penghentian operasi dampak dari pengerjaan perbaikan tersebut.

Selain itu, pengerjaan perbaikan juga diharapkan tidak berdampak secara material pada produksi Santos pada tahun 2011.

General Manager Santos Indonesia, Marjolijn Wajong mengatakan, kontribusi Santos di Indonesia, khususnya di wilayah Jawa Timur, adalah sangat signifikan.

"Santos menyadari bahwa kebutuhan energi listrik dan gas untuk industri di wilayah Jawa Timur bersifat sangat strategis dalam menunjang kegiatan ekonomi baik provinsi maupun nasional," kata Marjolijn.

Oleh karena itu, lanjutnya, pihak Santos juga mencoba sedapat mungkin agar tetap memenuhi kebutuhan energi.

Lapangan Maleo yang berlokasi di wilayah Kabupaten Sumenep memproduksi gas rata-rata 120 juta kaki kubik per hari (mmcfd) yang diserap Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) untuk dimanfaatkan berbagai industri di Jawa Timur.

Pemerintah Jaga Defisit di bawah 2 Persen - Media Indonesia

Pemerintah mengakui bahwa kenaikan harga minyak mentah Indonesia (Indonesia Crude Price/ ICP) hingga di atas US$100 per barel berdampak ke peningkatan defisit yang diasumsikan 1,8% pada APBN 2011. Namun demikian, defisit akan tetap dijaga di bawah 2%.

Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengatakan bahwa hingga kini pemerintah mengkaji kenaikan harga ICP. Hal tersebut dilakukan bersamaan dengan kajian beberapa asumsi lainnya di APBN seperti produksi minyak (lifting), nilai tukar, dan tingkat suku bunga.

"Itu yang menjadi secara umum defisit kita akan meningkat, tetapi secara fiskal kita akan jaga supaya defisit itu tidak akan sampai melebihi 2," kata Agus di Kantor Kementrian Keuangan Jakarta, Jumat (4/3).

Menurut Menkeu, dengan adanya peningkatan ICP, itu dampaknya memang masih ke peningkatan defisit. Apalagi ada faktor biaya anggaran untuk pendidikan yang kita musti selalu jaga di 20% dari anggaran belanja.

"Jadi tinggal berapa besar nilai ICP itu dibandingkan average US$80 (di asumsi APBN)," katanya.

Agus menilai, meskipun harga ICP naik, secara umum pihaknya masih berpandangan bahwa naiknya ICP ini tidak permanen. Walaupun ia tidak menampik jika kenaikan harga itu ada dampaknya kepada penerimaan. Tetapi di bagian belanja, kata dia, harus diketahui karena ada subsidi listrik maupun subsidi BBM dan juga faktor anggaran untuk pendidikan yang harus dilakukan penyesuaian.

"Secara umum membuat defisit kita itu akan meningkat. Secara umum kita masih mewaspadai melihat tapi belum memiliki rencana untuk mengubah. Dan kalaupun mengubah tidak akan melebihi 2%," katanya.

Menurutnya, inisiatif untuk menjaga defisit antara lain dengan Inpres Penghematan Anggaran Kementrian/ Lembaga ataupun bentuk-bentuk inisiatif yang lain. Yaitu menangani supaya tidak ada pengelauaran yang tidak prioritas atau tidak produktif.

Adapun saat ditanya impor migas yang masih lebih besar dari ekspor juga akan berpengaruh pada defisit. Agus mengatakan bahwa dirinya harus melihat lebih lanjut mengenai impor migas tersebut. Tetapi kalau dilihat dari total anggaran memang ada peningkatan defisit.

"Lalu dikombinasikan antara lifting yang agak berat untuk mencapai 970 ribu (barel per hari) kemudian harga pembelian minyak dari luar yang semakin tinggi. Ini kan tergantung simulasi dari harga, apakah itu di harga ICP US$80 (per barel) apa US$90 apa US$100," katanya.

Waiting for Godot - Mandiri Sekuritas

The Indonesian Parliaments has formed a special committee (Pansus) to speed up the deliberation on the bill concerning land clearance for public usage, which is targeted to be completed by April this year and can be signed by end of 1H. Under the proposal the rights of the land owners automatically will be revoked when the land is set for public usage. But please note that the law implementation requires a government regulation, which usually takes at least a year to get issued. Hence, we are still skeptical on the land clearing process due to the long time lag of the impact of the new land law implementation.

Slow process on new toll road operations in 2010. According to the Ministry of Public Affairs, only 52.7Kms of new toll roads started operations in 2010, lower than initial estimate of 63.8Kms. Nonetheless, we think that the actual realization is lower than the ministry cited. We noted only 2 new toll roads started to operate commercially in 2010, namely: the Kanci-Pejagan (34.0Km) in Jan’10 and Kebon Jeruk – Penjaringan (9.7Km) also known as JORR W1, in Feb’10.

Prolonged land clearing process on Trans Java toll road project. The plans to connect Jakarta-Surabaya with toll roads popped up in 1995, but the economic crisis in 1998 delayed the development of the project. In 2005, the government formed the Toll Road Regulatory Authority (BPJT) to revive the mega project. Nonetheless, the hurdles in land clearing were the main constrain of the project. Land clearing process only reached 36.5% or equivalent to 1,970ha by mid Jan’11. The Ministry of Public Affairs is targeting land clearing process on the Trans Java toll road project (total length 653Km or equivalent to 5,281ha, consisting 10 branches) to reac h 80% by end 2011. Such expectation is supported by a new land law and additional budget for land clearing cost amounting to Rp315bn. But, we are skeptical on the target considering its slow historical record.

At least one more year until the law can be implemented … We definitely don’t doubt that better regulation would speed up the realization of toll road development; nonetheless, our skeptical view remains. Please note that a government regulation is required for the implementation of the law, which commonly takes at least one year to be issued and land owners might remain uncooperative.

We like JSMR, being the biggest toll operator in Indonesia. JSMR operates 531Km length of toll roads covering 70% of the country’s total toll road length, consisting 14 sections from 11 branches of toll roads. Most of its existing toll roads are located in the Greater Jakarta area, the most populous area in Indonesia and has integrated connection. Thus, this makes JSMR the busiest toll operator with a total traffic in 2009 reaching 916mn vehicle s (+4.1% yoy).

Jumat, 04 Maret 2011

INAF:Enough of bad business - Mandiri Sekuritas

Indofarma (INAF) is the second largest listed state-owned pharmaceutical company in Indonesia with FY09A revenue of Rp1.1tn. The company, since 2007, has low profit margin of less than 1% due to regulation that caps its average selling price (ASP). Based on our meeting with the company’s management, there are 3 short-to-long term catalysts for the company’s profitability: (1) ASP increase starting on 2Q10, (2) new product launching by 4Q10, and (3) synergy f rom prop osed restructuring between 3 state-owned pharmaceutical companies. If it meets its targeted FY11 5% net profit margin and Rp1.4tn revenue, the stock valuation could equivalent to 3.2x PER11F.

Higher ASP may boost net margin from 1% to 5%. Half of INAF’s sales are generated from generic products which have low margin as the government regulates ASP. Since 2004, the government has reduced the ASP by 3 times so that most of generic products have less than 12% gross margin while the company expects it to have a normal 30% gross margin. The company expects ASP increase approval this month. We view the ASP increase is fair as other sectors that involve in the public service obligation, such as oil & gas and telecommunication, also get subsidy. In addition, changes in the company’s KPI from cost focus to profit focus, as mandated by the Ministe r of SOE, may support the ASP increase proposal. If it is approved, the company expects net margin to improve from 1% to 5% in FY11F.

New product launch should boost sales. INAF plans to launch new herbal product by 4Q10 after approval from Indonesian Food and Drug Administration (BPOM) authority. Note that the drug’s main chemical content has been approved by USA FDA. Based on the company, the product is effective to enhance immunity and rapidly cures dengue and herpes. The company believes the product could be a breakthrough in dengue medication; it has attracted demand from Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand, and Korea. INAF expects the product will be a key growth catalyst; one of the reasons is huge number of dengue patients in Indonesia that could reach 150k persons annually. Main risk is a delay in BPOM approval.

Synergy from ownership restructuring. The government resumes its plan to make a holding company for the 3 state-owned pharmaceutical companies. The latest update is the government has chosen a restructuring advisory firm. Current discussion is to possibly make Biofarma as the holding company which owns Indofarma and Kimia Farma. One of the visible synergy is cost saving from better production assignment as currently Indofarma and Kimia Farma compete in several product lines. In addition, being a bigger group could increase bargaining power.

Indo Tambang Raya Megah - Alert: Analyst Meet - Cost Pressures to Taper Off - Citigroup

We came away from a meeting with the company more assured that the surging costs seen in 2H10 are unlikely to transpire in 2011, barring a further surge in the oil price and another major weather disruption.

The company attributed the weak 2010 results to:
1. Heavier than normal rainfall, which: 1) forced a move to a different pit in its Indominco mine and 2) resulted in sizable demurrage costs of US$23m. The former resulted in a substantially higher stripping ratio (SR).

2. Surging fuel prices (average of US$0.72/l in 2010 vs. US$0.52/l in 2009). For 2011, the company has hedged c.80% of its fuel requirement at c. US$90/b.

3. Several one-off items, such as the write-off of an underground project’s deferred exploration and development costs of US$25m and a standby fee to contractors of US$9m as the Jorong mine operation was suspended for several months.

4. Derivative losses. The company booked US$71m losses (realized and unrealized) on its coal swap contracts in 2010.

Post the meeting, we take comfort in our view that the cost pressures are likely to taper off substantially in 2011. First, the company expects the SR of its major Indominco mine would decline to 13.6x in 1Q11 from 14.7x in 4Q10. Demurrage costs are also expected to be substantially lower as the company slows vessel acceptance and expects the waiting period for the vessels to normalize starting March. Finally, we expect the company’s coal swap losses to decline to c. US$30m in 2011E on our benchmark coal price assumption of US$122/t.

The company is upbeat on the coal price outlook and hence has locked in prices for only 40% of its 2011E volume target as at February. The buoyant coal price outlook, normalizing costs and attractive valuations lead us to maintain our Buy call. We view the current share price weakness as an enhanced buying opportunity. Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG.JK; Rp42,500; 1L)

Daily 4 Mar 2011 (BBCA, BTPN, EMTK) - NISP Sekuritas

BCA menargetkan 25% pertumbuhan usaha kecil menengah (BBCA, Rp6.650)
· Bank Central Asia menargetkan pertumbuhan UKM tahun ini tumbuh diatas 25% atau diatas pertumbuhan tahun lalu, sehingga total outstanding kredit UKM hingga akhir 2010 mencapai Rp55tn.
· Untuk mencapai target, BCA menempuh 2 jalur yaitu penyaluran langsung dan memanfaatkan chanelling dengan bank perkreditan rakyat (BPR). Selain itu, BCA juga mengandalkan penyaluran kredit pemilikan rumah dan kredit kendaraan bermotor.
· BBCA diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 17.1x dan PBV 4.2x.

Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara berencana ekspansi kredit Rp5,5tn di 2011 (BTPN, Rp11.200)
· Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Negara targetkan ekspansi kredit baru sebesar Rp5,5tn tahun ini. BPTN menyiapkan dana Rp2,4tn untuk mendukung ekspansi kredit yang berasal dari right issue Rp1,3tn dan penerbitan obligasi Rp1,1tn.
· Sementara itu, BTPN membukukan pertumbuhan kredit mencapai 48% di 2010 dibandingkan tahun 2009 yang sebesar Rp15,7tn menjadi Rp23,3tn.
· BTPN diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 11.6x dan PBV 2.4x

Elang Mahkota mengambil 27,24% saham Indosiar (EMTK, Rp1.340)
· Elang mahkota mengandalkan sumber pembiayaan kas internal dan pinjaman untuk menyelesaikan transaksi pengambilalihan 27,24% saham Indosiar yang dijadwalkan selesai pada akhir april 2011.
· Selain itu, EMTK juga mengambil kepemilikan saham Prima Visialindo atau salah satu pemegang saham utama Indosiar, sebanyak 551,71jt lembar saham Indosiar dengan harga per lembar saham Rp900.

Komodo report - transformation at state-owned power PLN - CLSA

Our on the ground specialist Mita “the Komodo” Valina is on fire, producing her second on-the-ground report within a few days (her recent piece on the status of long anticipated land bill is worth reading, pls let me know if you want a copy).

We met with state owned power company PLN’s president director Dahlan Iskan and the primary energy director Nur Pamuji. (Interesting to note that some parts of the PLN head office was not really well lit because PLN turns off sections of the lights since they want to conserve energy. Talking about leading by example) . From our meetings, we learned about the interesting transformational changes at PLN.

It is encouragingly to learn that instead of passing the blame, PLN management is taking responsibility and actions in the case of delay of the completion of the first 10GW power plant project - a fresh wind of change.

PLN is also dealing fairly with coal producers and making decisive actions in setting the prices with their coal suppliers. At the same time, PLN also removes the 18% price caps previously enjoyed by a handful of companies (314 companies out of 10,856 in total). This will save PLN US$214mn/year and level the playing fields for PLN customers.

Another example of concrete achievement is that PLN also successfully brings online 150MW (worth US$150mn) from improving efficiency in 2010.

The improvement at PLN under the new leadership is remarkable and the company is evolving into a healthier institution.

Key points from the note today:
· PLN chairman expects 3,5000MW of additional power to come on the grid in 2011. This is revised down from 4,700MW due to project delays
· Measures in place to speed up construction: more project managers, faster design approvals, and directly involving themselves in fast track projects
· Plans reduced reliance on oil and increase usage of gas and coal for fuel
· Coal consumption expected to grow at 25% Cagr till 2014 as coal-fired power plants come on-line. It is 34m tons today
· PLN is including Jan reference prices to calculate coal reference price, which will give a fairer (higher) price, and not forcing coal producers to sell below market price
· Removal of 18% cap on price hike only affects 341 out of 10,856 companies. With cap on, avg. price was Rp680/KWh, while new price is Rp720/KWh
· We like companies with less dependence on PLN’s grid, Indocement (INTP IJ).
· Companies that are more dependent on PLN like Holcim (SMCB IJ) Semen Gresik (SMGR IJ) and Krakatau Steel (KRAS IJ) might be more impacted by price hikes

Daily Focus 4 March 2011 - DBS Vickers

Economy

Expect no change in the BI rate
Bank Indonesia will meet today to review its monetary policy. The Bloomberg consensus has shifted to expect BI to keep rates on hold at 6.75% rather than hiking to 7.0%, following the lower-than-expected inflation data reported earlier this week (6.8% for Feb). We also maintain our expectation of no rate increase at today’s BI meeting. The surge in fresh food prices could stabilize, as Indonesia ’s harvest season normally starts in February-April and domestic rice stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Indonesia has scope on the fiscal front to afford the costs for fuel subsidies. The government intends to delay the reform plan of limiting the use of subsidised fuels, which should help avert an abrupt rise in oil price inflation and give BI some leeway to hike rates at a measured pace.

Automotive

Despite the slight slow down, February 4W sales remain strong
It was reported in the Bisnis Indonesia this morning that according to the interim data, February 4W Sales reached 69,494 units (+25% y-o-y, -6%m-o-m). Several dealerships are suggesting that this 6% m-o-m decline is caused by fewer working days in February. Despite the decrease, the figure is higher than both Gaikindo and our monthly average estimates. Gaikindo 4W sales forecast for this year is 820,000 units (+7% y-o-y), which translates into average monthly sales of 68,333 units. We are estimating 833,534 units annual sales (+9% y-o-y) which is equivalent to 69,461 unit monthly sales. Sustainable strong 4W sales might be a good indication of a strong outlook for 2011. Yet, at the same time we suspect that these higher sales might be a pull forward impact of the increase in registration tax expected later this year.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia: Buy; Rp4,925; TP Rp6,950; BBRI IJ

BBRI signed AGRO acquisition deal
BBRI finally sealed the acquisition deal of Bank Agroniaga (AGRO) with total transaction value of Rp330.3bn. BBRI plans to grow lending in agribusiness by utilising AGRO infrastructure and capabilities and has a growth target of 24%. Current AGRO loans stand at Rp2.5tr. BBRI is targeting to grow agriculture lending as a percentage of total company loans from 8.8% in FY10 to 21% this year. As a majority owner of AGRO, BBRI will focus more on core agriculture lending while AGRO will emphasise on plasma financing.

US Stocks Rise Most This Year on Economy; Euro Gains - Bloomberg

U.S stocks rallied, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average up the most in three months, as oil retreated and reports signaled the global economy is strengthening. The euro climbed as the European Central Bank said an interest-rate increase may be needed to fight inflation.

The Dow climbed 204.91 points, or 1.7 percent, to 12,271.71 at 3:19 p.m. in New York and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased for a fifth day, the longest rally in two months. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index pared gains amid concern borrowing costs will rise. The euro appreciated 0.5 percent against the dollar and German two-year note yields jumped 23 basis points. Oil lost 0.3 percent to $101.91 a barrel, falling from its highest price in more than two years. Treasuries and the dollar fell.

U.S. equities advanced for the fourth time in five days after jobless claims unexpectedly fell, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the labor market is improving. Other reports showed American service industries expanded at the fastest pace in five years, retail sales topped estimates and South Korean industrial output grew. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers must exercise “strong vigilance” as inflation risks increase.

“The stock market has the best of all worlds,” said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees more than $85 billion. “The numbers we’ve seen -- employment, ISM, retail sales --argue that concern about a slowdown due to rising energy costs may be overstated.” more ...

Crude Oil Slips From 29-Month High on Libya Mediation Proposal - Bloomberg

Oil in New York fell from a 29-month high after Venezuela offered to mediate the conflict in Libya, Africa’s third-largest oil producer.

Crude declined 0.3 percent on the Venezuelan proposal and after the Associated Press reported army deserters secured oil facilities in the rebel-held port of Brega on the Gulf of Sidra. Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi briefly seized, then lost control of, Brega yesterday.

“There are people attempting to come up with some kind of compromise that would allow some kind of peace settlement, and that’s definitely a bearish sign,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. The government’s failure to hold Brega “removed any thought that there would be any damage to the oil exports,” he said.

Crude for April delivery slid 32 cents to settle at $101.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have risen 26 percent in the past year.

Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa expressed support for the initiative in a conversation with Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro, Andres Izarra, the Latin American country’s information minister, said in a Twitter post today. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is a Qaddafi ally.

The Arab League has also discussed the plan with Venezuela, Hesham Youssef, chief of staff for Secretary General Amr Moussa, said in a telephone interview today.

Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the Libyan leader’s son, said after floor trading closed that he wasn’t aware of Venezuela’s offer.

Libya pumped 1.39 million barrels a day in February, trailing Nigeria and Angola in African production, according to Bloomberg News estimates. more ...

Bumi Minerals seeks US$200 mio loan - Insider Stories

Indonesia's non-coal miner PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS), subsidiary of coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), is seeking US$200 million of bank loan facilities to develop severap projects.

Yuanita Rohali, BRMS Finance Director, said several banks have offered the company with several financing facilities. However, she declined to mentione the banks.
Bumi Minerals also secures US$143 million dividend from PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara.
BRMS is planning to spend US$240 million of capital expenditure this year. "We will use proceed from IPO last year."
The company will develop five projects such as Dairi Prima Mineral, Bumi Mauritania, Gorontalo Mineral, Citra Palu Minerals, and Liberia's Konblo Bumi Project.

Dairy Prima is expected to produce 100,000 tons of led and zinc metal, silver, and ore by 2012. It requires US$311 million of investment.
Bumi Mauritania estimates to commence production in late of first quarter 2012 with 6,000 tons of gold. Gorontalo and Citra Palu prokects will run in the second half of 2012.

Indonesia AirAsia to Float 20% Shares to Public in 4Q - The Indonesia Today

PT Indonesia AirAsia, a subsidiary of Malaysia's budget airline Air Asia, plans to offer 20% shares to public in the fourth quarter (4Q) of this year, targeting proceeds of US$150-200 million, detikfinance.com reported.

Dharmadi, president director of Indonesia AirAsia, said in press briefing today that the airline has appointed Credit Suisse and CIMB as underwriters for the IPO.

He said the IPO proceeds will be used for purchasing new aircrafts, strengthening capital for long term development and giving opportunity to employees to hold the stake.

Currently, Dharmadi said, AirAsia has 20 aircrafts, consisting of 16 Airbus and 4 Boeing. The airline booked net profit of Rp474 billion in 2010, soared 351% from previous year. Revenue also rose 37% to Rp2.76 trillion last year.

"We targets to book net profit of Rp500 billion this year with number of passengers targeted to grow by 15% to 4.5 million," he said.

Elang Mahkota buys Indosiar at Rp900 - Insider Stories

PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk (Emtek) spends not less than Rp496.54 billion or Rp900 per share to buy 551.71 shares, or 27.24% ownership, of PT Indosiar Karya Media Tbk.
In an information disclosure today, Elang Mahkota, the parent of PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCTV channel) and controlled by Sariaatmadja family, will be the major shareholder of Indosiar.

The deal on taking over TV station Indosiar was signed on March 1, 2011. Management of Elang Mahkota said that the take over of Salim Family’s media group will be financed through internal cash and loan.

However, Elang Mahkota confirmed that the corporate action needs due diligence of the company and approval from shareholders before it can be completed. The acquisition is the follow-up of merger between Indosiar and SCTV.

Tidak Ada Kartel, Prime Lending Rate Dorong Kompetisi Perbankan - Infobanknews

Dengan terbentuknya transparansi dalam penetapan SBDK, BI yakin persaingan perbankan akan semakin ketat dan tidak akan menimbulkan pembentukan kartel yang memang tidak pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Paulus Yoga

Jakarta–Melalui pengumuman suku bunga dasar kredit (SBDK), Bank Indonesia (BI) yakin tidak akan ada kartel dalam pembentukan suku bunga karena akan tercipta transparansi kepada masyarakat.

“Kartel itu tidak ada. Kami lihat contohnya di sesama bank BUMN saja ini sebenarnya berkompetisi. Dan kami sudah panggil dan melihat itu bersaing dalam hal pembentukan harga,” tukas Kepala Biro Penelitian dan Pengaturan Bank BI Irwan Lubis, kepada wartawan di Jakarta, Kamis, 3 Maret 2011.

Untuk melihat ada atau tidaknya kartel suku bunga tersebut, bisa dianalisa dari segmentase yang masing-masing bank bidik dalam mengembangkan bisnisnya.

“Makanya mereka itu akan main di segmen yang berbeda. BRI head to head dengan NISP dan Danamon di mikro, ada Bank Mandiri dengan bank-bank offshores di level korporasi. Yang jelas tidak ada itu SBDK rupiah yang di bawah 8%, dan masing-masing punya cara perhitungannya sendiri,” terang Irwan.

Dengan adanya kebijakan prime lending rate atau pengumuman SBDK yang sedianya efektif diberlakukan per 31 Maret 2011, BI melihat ini akan mendorong transparansi sehingga membuka kompetisi dalam pembentukan suku bunga yang lebih rendah.

“Kesepakatan di antara sesama bank adalah untuk meningkatkan efisiensi bukan dalam pengaturan bunga kredit. Saya pastikan tidak ada kartel atau oligopoli bank. Dan selama 18 tahun pun menjadi pengawas bank itu memang tidak ada kartel, karena bank-bank itu berbeda masing-masing penelaahan risiko dan tingkat efisiensi,” pungkasnya.

Ciputra Development (CTRA IJ, Rp 305 BUY) January Marketing sales - Danareksa Sekuritas

Highlights:

l January 2011’s marketing sales are up 52% YoY to Rp 206bn, with 2 new estates launched in Semarang and Jambi.

l Excluding the 2 new estates, marketing sales still grew 34% YoY.

l 63% of the sales were still contributed by residential projects under CTRA. The best performance came from CitraGarden City, for which sales surged 3.5 times YoY to Rp 48bn, underpinned by a 20% increase in average land selling prices (including building cost) in the area (up from Rp 3.8mn/sqm in FY09 to around Rp 4.6mn/sqm currently).

l The company also recorded Rp 12bn of pre-sales for 4 MyHome apartment units (CTRP).


Comments:

l The company’s FY11F marketing sales target is Rp 3.2Trn, up 85% YoY from FY10’s marketing sales of Rp 1.7Trn.

l However, this target is 50% above our FY11F marketing sales target of Rp 2.1Trn since we remain conservative and do not take into account the company’s 13 new projects launched in 2011.

l Yet if we exclude the new projects from the sales target, the company’s marketing sales target for FY11F would be Rp 2.2Trn - achievable in our view.

l An additional 4 MyHome apartment units were sold, meaning 79 units or 58% of the total 136 MyHome apartment units have been sold. The units are currently offered for sale at Rp 24mn/sqm, already 33% higher than the price at the first launch of Rp 18mn/sqm in 2008. At the current price, the company’s target is to sell a total of 50 MyHome apartment units.

l As previously mentioned, CTRA’s 13 new residential projects in 13 different cities will push up the company’s NAV by 4% to Rp 856/share.

l We remain upbeat on the company given that property investment remains a lucrative business in Indonesia . Compared to other countries in the region, Indonesian property prices are still among the cheapest, ranging from US$ 1,200 to US$ 1,700 per sqm on average. Prices in Malaysia and Vietnam are 3-4 times higher and even as much as 10 times higher in Singapore .

l Demand for housing in Indonesia is high with unfilled demand of around 7.1-8mn units. Since around 60% of the demand is for landed houses, we favor the company’s strategy to tap the property market in areas out of Java through joint operations with local land owners.

l All in all, we maintain our BUY call on the company with a TP of Rp 470 implying 19.9 -18.3x PE11-12F and 1.4-1.3x PBV11-12F.

Indosat: Buy; Rp5,100; TP Rp6,800; ISAT IJ EBITDA margins on uptrend, multiple catalysts ahead DBS Vickers

At a Glance
• Inline 4Q10 EBITDA supported by higher than expected margins, likely to sustain in FY11F.
• Potential tower sale/lease and CDMA business sale should be the key catalysts.
• Cheapest telco at 4.7x FY11F EV/EBITDA. XL remains our top pick followed by Indosat.

Enseval Putra Megatrading: Not Rated; Rp810; EPMT IJ Rp300bn rights issue approved - DBS Vickers

In the Extraordinary Shareholder General Meeting, Enseval Putra Megatrading (EPMT)’s shareholders have approved the company’s Rp300bn rights issues plan. The rights proceeds would be used for expansion, strengthen the company’s distribution network, and build 4 new regional hubs in Cikarang, Makasar, Medan , and Palembang . KLBF, as a standby buyer has set aside the Rp300bn from its Rp1.8tr net cash as at Dec 2010 to take up all the rights that is unsubscribed, which will potentially raise its stake to 86.3%.

On another note, KLBF is planning to develop other ASEAN markets for its ethical and OTC drugs. The company is conducting feasibility studies on both Thailand and Vietnam and some Rp0.5-1tr is set aside to fund this expansion. Currently, export contributes to only 4% to KLBF’s total sales. With no immediate earnings enhancement expected from Vietnam or Thailand markets, KLBF is targeting 12%-15% sales growth this year. For now, we maintain our Hold call and TP of Rp3,275/share.

LSIP A better bet - AmCapital

Investment Highlights
PP Lonsum Indonesia (Lonsum) surprised us with higher than expected FY2010 financial results. Going forward, high CPO and rubber prices should guard its earnings momentum. The planned IPO of its parent company, Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIP), should not distract equity investors away from the counter as Lonsum offers better return given its pure commodity play in the light of rising soft commodity price. BUY.

FY10 results
Lonsum’s FY10 results surprised us with higher than expected gross profit, operating profit, pre-tax profit, and net profit amid weather-disrupted plantation activities last year. FY10 top and bottom lines were robustly up by some 12% and 46%.

Enduring momentum
Rising soft commodity prices should guard the company’s earnings momentum. Entering March, CPO price has stayed above US$1,200 per ton, while rubber enjoys stronger rally to more than US$5.0 per kg. Weather, as the swing factor, will further support production this year.

A different ball
The planned IPO of SIP should not distract investors away from Lonsum, in our view. SIP has significant exposure to consumer sector via its cooking oil business, contributing approximately 63% of SIP’s 9M10 revenues. Given rising soft commodity prices and business model as a planter, we believe that Lonsum should be a better bet.

BUY, target price upped to Rp3,000
Windfall profit from higher soft commodity prices should support earnings. Higher than expected dividend could be an additional catalyst to the counter given Lonsum’s debt-free balance sheet. We have revisited our model to factor some adjustments in. Current price is valuing the counter at 2011-12F PERs of 10.8-10.6x. We revise up our year-end target price to Rp3,000 per share. Maintain BUY.

FOCUS (03-Mar-2011) KIJA:Off the hurdle - Mandiri Sekuritas

KIJA has finally signed the long-awaited 20-year Electricity Sales and Purchase Agreement with PLN for 100% off-take of electricity generated from its 130-MW combined cycle power plant. The deal will ultimately guarantee the company of some US$85mn annual revenue (EBITDA margin: 34%), which is expected to contribute up to 55% of total revenue onwards. Yet, we see its revenue contribution to start streaming only by 2012, later that we have earlier assumed. Less operational efficiency is seen if the plant runs only with 2 out of 3 planned turbines. This resulted in reduction in the EPS11F by 49% to only Rp9. However, we still like the company, especially given the prospects of its industrial estates post the power plant completion. KIJA can now es tablish itself as a proxy of fully integrated-industrial estate developer, coupled with the outlook of the country’s economy. We upgraded our TP to Rp150/share, benchmarking it to the current trading discount to NAV of its peers of 58%. BUY. KIJA is trading at attractively 62% discount to RNAV11F.

Passed the biggest hurdle. We understand the prolonged time waiting of the power plant contribution that now we expect to start streaming by 2012. The company said minimal profit is seen if they run the power plant only with the currently installed two turbines. This is evidenced in the company 9M10 book, where KIJA experienced loss supplying PLN on emergency contract basis, while taking similar pricing structure of ±9cents/ kwh. Given such condition, it led us to eliminate our earlier power plant assumption in 2011, hence reducing our EPS11F to Rp9 from initially Rp17. Nonetheless, we are still positive on the company’s growth outlook in 2012, as we are confident that KIJA has passed its biggest hurdle in completing the project.

Loan disbursement to complete the project. We don’t see any more major issue that will impede the completion of the project. The next stage would be the disbursement of the remaining US$40mn syndicated loan that US$20mn is used to complete the project, while the remaining to refinance the maturing CIMB-Niaga’s bridging loans. The company expects this to be received by the end of Mar11.

Buy with new TP Rp150/share. Despite lowered EPS11F, we still like the company, due to its prospects post the power plant completion. We expect land sales to continue showing growth, especially given the guaranteed power supply from the power plant, coupled with the newly dry port service and other maintenance facilities in the area. KIJA is now a proxy of a fully-integrated industrial developer in the country. Buy, with upgraded TP Rp150/share.

Asia Equity Focus Structural growth story in Indonesia continues to unfold - Credit Suisse

On-the-ground insights into Indonesia based on positive anecdotes
To gather first-hand information on consumers and corporates in Indonesia, we attended a conference last week in Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia. The trip to Surabaya included one-to-one meetings with company managements and site visits to companies with significant operations in Surabaya. The firms we met with were mainly banks, property and consumer companies, including Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Bank Danamon, Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Ciputra Development, Pakuwon Jati, AKR Corporindo, Ace Hardware, Charoen Pokphand Indonesia and Indofood CBP. The key takeaway from the conference was that companies generally remain bullish about their outlook. Although they think that inflation might be on the high side, these companies are confident that they can pass on higher raw material costs to consumers, premised on robust growth in consumer incomes.

Indofood shared an anecdote about the sales of its instant noodles, which have yet to see any impact on volumes after it implemented a price hike of IDR 100 per pack (6%–7% price increase) across the board in January (previous price hike took place in August last year). Bogasari (Indofood's flour unit) has not increased flour prices since September last year and we gather from management that price hikes could be forthcoming. We also visited a Nasi Uduk food store owner, who is currently a BRI micro-lending customer. He started out with a street-side stall and has now moved into a shop, generating revenues of around USD 550 per day. Looking ahead, the food store owner hopes to get another mortgage to buy the shop we visited, which costs around USD 270,000. Among banks and property companies, the sentiment we gathered on the ground concerns expansion plans, with banks targeting the mass market for consumer-related loans (micro-lending, mortgage and automotive) and property companies focusing on launching new residential and township projects.
Indonesia's February CPI numbers surprised on the downside, coming in at 6.8% YoY, compared with market expectations of 7.1% YoY and versus 7% YoY a month ago. The decline in inflation was largely due to easing food prices. The Indonesian government's initiatives to import more rice and remove import duties on wheat, flour, soy beans and animal feed, have also help to ease food price inflation. After hiking the policy rate by 25 bp in February, the Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Hartadi Sarwono, recently commented that the central bank might not need to raise the policy rate any further, saying that the government's efforts to contain food inflation were sufficient. Thus, the market is split as to whether Bank Indonesia will hike the policy rate at its upcoming policy meeting scheduled for tomorrow, 4 March. Despite recent concerns about inflationary pressures and rising interest rates, we believe that structural growth in Indonesia is continuing to unfold. Based on our latest earnings forecasts for 2011E and a higher equity risk premium, we have slightly adjusted our 12-month DDM-based JCI target downwards to 4,100 from 4,300. With the recent correction, Indonesia is trading at a 12M forward P/E of 12.7, approaching its 5-year average P/E of 12.4. We believe the recent correction has provided a window of opportunity for investors to buy into our preferred consumer and infrastructure-related sectors for the multi-year growth
story. Our TOP PICKS are Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ, BUY), Indofood (INDF IJ, BUY), Indosat (ISAT IJ, BUY) and United Tractors (UNTR IJ, BUY).

FOCUS (03-Mar-2011) Strategy:Fuel subsidy likely will stay - Mandiri Sekuritas

In February, JCI turned positive (+1.8% MoM) and we expect this positive sentiment to continue in March. We grew optimistic due to improved GDP outlook boosted by delay in the reduction of fuel subsidy, which will lead to less inflationary pressures. The delay in the subsidized fuel rationing will be positive for the JCI in the short term. In the longer term, however, pent-up inflation will continue to overshadow the optimism. The sectors which underperformed the JCI in February were construction, infrastru cture, a nd agriculture. While the biggest outperformer was trading and services. We still like commodities especially coal. Also, despite our neutral call, we grew more positive on the consumer and financial sectors. We are still negative on cement (basic industry) and property. Our picks are: Bumi Resources, Indofood, Gudang Garam, Bank BRI, and Mitra Adiperkasa.

Better month but slower trading. IDX posted a positive 1.8% MoM return with trade and service sector posting the biggest MoM gains of 5.6%, followed by miscellaneous industry (+5.4% MoM), and basic industry (+3.8% MoM). Trade and service was the only sector that still book ed a pos itive return on ytd basis (+5.5%ytd), while the sectors, which ytd still outperform the JCI (-6.3%ytd) were mining (-4.5%ytd), miscellaneous (-4.8%ytd), and consumer (-5.2%ytd). Average daily trading was Rp3,432bn for Feb11, much smaller than Jan11 (Rp4,950bn), or Dec10 (Rp3,959bn). Threat of inflation created overhang. No major progress on the government initiatives or programs is also not helping the sentiment.

Govt backtracked on its fuel subsidy rationing plan. We think there is less chance for the government to continue with its plan to limit consumption of subsidized fuel or increase fuel prices. Recent changes in political landscapes, marked by the breakup in the coalition, will lik ely force the government to adopt more populist policies. This will help alleviate inflation concerns. Consumer price inflation reached 0.13% mom or up 6.84% yoy in Feb11, lower than our and consensus estimates of around 0.4% mom or 7.12% yoy. The Jan-Feb11 accumulative inflation reached 1.02%. Lower inflation was triggered by decline in food and clothing prices, which dragged down the headline reading by 0.09ppt and 0.01ppt respectively. We expect BI to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 6.75% in the next board meeting on Friday (4/3).

Anecdotal evidences indicated strong economic growth continued. In February, electricity peak demand in the Java-Bali system reached its highest level ever (18,270MW), higher than the previous record of 17,890MW in 2010. Car sal es reach ed its monthly highest sales ever of 73,849 units. Mitra Adiperkasa, a mid-segment fashion and F&B retailer, enjoyed strong SSG sales in January of 10%. In Q410, the GDP registered 6.9% yoy expansion, beating forecast of 6.3%.

Our picks for the month: coal and consumer. Expectation of good prices set for Japanese coal consumers, and the general positive sentiment arising from the consummation of Vallar deal will be the catalysts for the coal sector in March. As for consumers, positive sentiment will com e from Indofood, as it’s preparing for the float of its unit Salim Ivomas, and slower inflation pace.

Indonesia Banks' Foreign Ownership - Feb 2011: Ownership Rising while EPS Growth Cut Marginally - Citigroup

 Preference for positive correlation — Foreign investors turned net buyers of BBCA, BMRI, BBNI and BDMN. The first three have positive EPS correlation with rising rates while BDMN remains in the news as a potential acquisition target. Foreigners were net sellers in BBRI and BBTN, for the fourth consecutive month. Relative to the free float, foreign ownership in BDMN is now at peak levels (since Jan 2008). Foreign ownership increased in BMRI due to the govt. placement but declined as a % of free float, as a higher portion was allocated to local investors. In value terms, ownership in BMRI and BBRI is almost the same at c~USD4.5bn.

 Consensus EPS forecast trends — Consensus (MSCI Factset) has revised down sector weighted avg. EPS growth for 2010F and 2011F. For 2011F, EPS growth has been cut for all except BBNI. The 2011F EPS growth forecast ranges from 23.8% (BDMN) to 14.8% (BBCA).

 Valuation cycle (since 2006) — BBCA and BBNI are now trading above their mean multiples on both forward PER and PB. BBRI is trading below mean multiples, due to concerns about sustainability of its loan growth and asset quality. BMRI is trading on mean PER multiples while BDMN is +0.5 std.

 Macro Economic Environment — Inflation remains a risk with our economics team who hold the opinion that 1) Indonesia is running loose monetary policy based on Monetary Condition Indices and 2) the economy is less vulnerable to oil price shocks due to a relatively low oil consumption intensity, current account surplus and a net revenue contribution from oil and gas on fiscal side.

 BMRI is our Top Buy and BDMN and BBNI are top Sells — We prefer BMRI due to its attractive valuation, positive sensitivity to rising rates and potential upside surprise from cash write-backs. Our Sells on BBNI and BDMN are based on their higher PER (we have below-consensus EPS growth forecast for 2011F).

Antam - 2010: strong performance, high operating expenses - Credit Suisse

● 4Q10 and full-year unaudited results: ANTM’s net profit increased 257% QoQ and 122% YoY, ~10% above consensus but ~11% below our estimates. Its revenue ex. gold trading rose 45% QoQ and 51% YoY, approximately 4% above our 2010 estimate. ANTM’s gross profit was 7% above our expectation, but higher opex and lower dividends from Newcrest put its net profit below our initial forecast.

● ANTM’s significant increase in earnings was primarily driven by strong nickel and gold prices in 2010, as well as additional gold production from Cibaliung. We revise our 2010 earnings estimate to reflect the unaudited results. We also revise our 2011-12 earnings estimates to reflect latest nickel price forecasts and higher fuel prices.

● Strong nickel and gold prices have primarily been driven by growth in global industrial production (indicated by Global IP). Despite positive outlook, we remain cautious given the oversupply concerns about nickel. However, ANTM should benefit from its product mix from gold, which would provide further earnings hedge.

● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating and target price of Rp2,600.

Mayora, downgrading earning and TP - CLSA

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ), cookie warrior, from Jessica Irene, downgrades 2011CL by 10% and TP from Rp18,000 to Rp13,500. BUY maintained.

While larger business scale and an appreciating Rupiah will help offset cost increase, MYOR is facing cost pressures from rising commodity prices that is expected to compress margins in the near term. Hence, Jessica Irene downgrades MYOR’s 2011 earnings by 10% on compressed margin.

Extrapolating past events can be dangerous. Back in 2008-2009, consumer companies increased their prices in their effort to pass on the rising cost burden to consumers. And when commodity prices fell substantially towards the end of 2009, margins for the consumer companies nicely expanded.

Will the same cycle be repeated this time? Obviously very difficult to forecast, but if the commodity prices stay elevated we are going to see margin squeeze for consumer companies, esp. the one targeting mass market (limited purchasing power) like MYOR.

Export is growing very fast at MYOR (growing 90% CAGR for the past 5 years and already 30% of sales). This is a good achievement since they are using their own brands in the overseas market. However, in the environment of weak US$ and stronger rupiah, this will exacerbate pressures on margin.

Key points from the report:
· Trading cheaply at 9.8x 12CL PE vs. regional peers at 17.5x
· 34% Cagr profit growth over past five years; expect 30% Cagr for the next two years
· Export market grew at 90% Cagr for past five years, now accounting for 30% of total sales. Mgmt expects to grow to 40% of sales
· 25-30% expansion to capacity expected by end 2011
· 10% downgrade of 11CL earnings due to higher than expected raw material prices and advertising expenses
· Upgrading 2012’s earnings by 7% on the expectations of margin recovery when commodity prices normalize.
· Food & candies to be key growth driver as Coffee inputs sees significant price hikes
· Rapidly rising commodities prices is a risk to margins unless Mayora starts increasing prices
· Cut TP to Rp13,500, 36% upside. Based on 25% discount to 12CL regional peers P/E. Maintain BUY

Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk : Analyst Meeting Report (Unrated) - AAA Securities

Summary:
Di 3Q2010 BLTA telah berhasil membukukan peningkatan pendapatan sebesar 10% qoq yang
mencapai US$497 juta, disebabkan oleh peningkatan pendapatan dari long term chartered tanker yang meningkat sebesar 25% menjadi US$100 juta. BLTA juga telah berhasil menghimpun dana sebesar US$859 juta, yang berasal dari bank loan, sales and leaseback dan penerbitan convertible bond. Dana ini pada dasarnya digunakan untuk memperbaiki struktur pembiayaan perusahaan dengan kondisi yang lebih baik dan lebih sesuai dengan kondisi cash flow perusahaan. Di tahun 2010, BLTA berhasil memenangkan tender Pertamina untuk jasa Very large Gas Carrier (VLGC) dan Kangean Energy untuk jasa Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Unit (FSPO), total nilai dari kedua proyek ini adalah US$190 juta. Di tinjau dari sisi Industri, BLTA diuntungkan dengan keadaan industri sekarang, ini disebabkan oleh eksport kimia di negara Timur Tengah yang meningkat, dan maraknya bisnis migas domestik swasta dan Pertamina. Kedua faktor ini akan mendorong permintaan jasa pelayaran BLTA. Kedua faktor diatas, yakni, outlook pendapatan yang lebih cerah serta struktur pembiayaan
yang lebih sesuai akan membantu BLTA bertumbuh lebih baik di masa yang akan datang.

Financial Performance
BLTA membukukan kenaikan sales di periode 3Q2010 sebesar 10% menjadi US$ 494 juta (3Q2009: US$450 juta) yang disebabkan oleh naiknya pendapatan dari chartered vessel sebesar 25% menjadi US$100 juta dari US$79 juta. Selain itu di kuartal terakhir 2010, BLTA telah berhasil menghimpun dana (fund raising) sebesar US$859 juta. Dana tersebut sebagian besar dari pinjaman bank sebesar US$263 juta, sales and leaseback US$182 juta, right issue US$192 juta dan penerbitan convertible bond US$173 juta. Dana baru tersebut akan memperbaiki struktur pembiayaan BLTA selain juga memiliki persyaratan yang lebih sesuai dengan kondisi cash flow perusahaan saat ini.

Kedepannya dengan outlook industri yang cerah, sales dan juga EBITDA diharapkan akan meningkat. Seiring dengan kondisi kewajiban perusahaan setelah refinancing dilakukan, EBITDA/Debt Service ratio juga akan membaik.

Outlook and valuation
Sebagai operator kapal tanker terbesar di Indonesia khususnya tanker kimia. BLTA masih diuntungkan oleh faktor external. Antara lain adalah: 1) Pertumbuhan industr kimia yang baik, 2) Peraturan perairan (cabotage) yang melindungi pangsa pasar domestik BLTA dari perusahaan asing. 3) Pertumbuhan industri national perkapalan yang signifikan. 4) Brand positioning yang cukup baik di mata international, karena BLTA dikenal sebagai operator tanker terbesar nomer 4 di dunia. Dari segi internal, BLTA memiliki armada yang relatif muda dengan umur rata – rata 7 tahun, serta memiliki jaringan dan jangkauan yang tersebar dibeberapa benua. Semua faktor diatas akan membantu BLTA untuk terus berkembang dan memungkinkannya untuk dapat melunasi beban hutang yang cukup tinggi.

Kamis, 03 Maret 2011

Indosat - Alert: FY10 Bottom Line Misses, EBITDA In-line - Citigroup

Indosat released highlights of its full year 2010 performance. The bottom line posted a miss, falling 57% YoY to Rp647bn. This translates to a 27% miss vs. Citi and a 33% miss vs. Bloomberg consensus profit estimates. EBITDA on the other hand was broadly in-line for both. What did strike us in the limited release was the 4Q trend. Mobile revenue growth was weak at a 0.7% rise YoY, significantly slower vs. full-year mobile growth of 12%. Non-mobile revenues, which account for 19% of service revenues, continued to shrink, declining 15% YoY for 4Q and 17% YoY for the full year. From a mobile standpoint, we see that the company is materially lagging XL which posted 5% QoQ/15% YoY growth on revenues. XL also appears to have extended its revenue market share in 4Q vs. Indosat. We note that while Indosat may have added an impressive 4.6m subs in 4Q (+12% QoQ), this was not monetized, with revenues flat and trailing peers.

Capex also accelerated in 4Q to Rp2.2tn, taking up 34% of the full year capex spend of Rp6.5tn. Management had flagged previously that cash capex should accelerate as vendor equipment backlog is filled in 4Q10 and FY11.

On the positive front, we do see that efficiency initiatives have started to bear fruit with EBITDA margins improving 200bp YoY to 48.6% for the year as the company better controls costs with new management.

The company is due to release its financial statements and operating results on 24 March and will hold an investor call on 28 March. We may review our numbers accordingly following these. On balance, we find the company to have disappointed on the bottom line, although there remains limited granularity on this front with only highlights of the full year results released. We currently have a Sell/Low Risk rating on Indosat with a TP of Rp4,900. We believe its valuations
look expensive at 29.1x FY11 PER on our current estimates.

Daily 3 Mar 2011 (ISAT, UNSP, ASRI, DILD, ITMG) - NISP Sekuritas

Laba bersih Indosat turun 56,8% di 2010 (ISAT, Rp5.000)
· Indosat membukukan laba bersih Rp647milyar di 2010 atau turun 56,8% dibandingkan Rp1,49tn di 2009. Penurunan ini disebabkan oleh meningkatnya jumlah beban pendanaan dan peningkatan beban penyusutan dan amortisasi. Laba bersih ini 33% lebih rendah dibandingkan konsensus Rp966milyar.
· Meskipun laba bersih menurun, pendapatan perseroan tumbuh 5,2% dari Rp18,8tn di 2009 menjadi Rp19,8tn di 2010.
· ISAT diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 18.2x dan EV/EBITDA 4.5x.

Bakrie Sumatra Plantations meraih laba bersih Rp787,3milyar di 2010 (UNSP, Rp360)
· Bakrie Sumatra Plantations membukukan laba bersih (unaudited) Rp787,3milyar di 2010 atau meningkat 211,5% dari Rp252,8milyar di 2009. Kenaikan ini ditopang oleh kenaikan harga produksi CPO dan karet. Laba bersih ini 229% lebih tinggi dibanding konsensus sebesar Rp342.6milyar.
· Dari sisi pendapatan, terdapat kenaikan 27% dari Rp2,35tn di 2009 menjadi Rp 2,95tn di 2010 yang juga didapat dari kenaikan pendapatan CPO dan karet.
· UNSP diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 9.9x dan EV/EBITDA 6.7x.

Alam Sutera berencana Rp70milyar di 2011 (ASRI, bagi dividen Rp245)
· Alam Sutera berencana membagikan dividen senilai Rp70milyar atau setara dengan 23,3% dari total laba bersih Rp300milyar tahun lalu.
· Laba bersih ASRI tumbuh 219% dari Rp94milyar di 2009 menjadi Rp300milyar di 2010. Kenaikan ini tak lepas dari pengaruh kenaikan harga property di kawasan Alam Sutera. Laba bersih ini 7% lebih tinggi dibandingkan konsensus sebesar Rp297.5milyar.
· ASRI diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 9.1x dan EV/EBITDA 6.7x.

Intiland berencana menerbitkan obligasi sebesar Rp1,32tn di 2011 (DILD, Rp320)
· Intiland Development berencana menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp1,32tn tahun ini yang akan digunakan untuk ekspansi beberapa proyek perseroan.
· Selain itu, Intiland juga mengalokasikan belanja modal sebesar Rp1tn tahun ini atau meningkat 66% dibandingkan Rp600milyar di 2010. Dana ini juga akan digunakan untuk mendukung ekspansi proyek perseroan.
· DILD diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 8.2x dan EV/EBITDA 5.7x.

BUMI Eksekusi Convertible Note Bumi Resources Mineral 9 Maret 2011 - Toko Saham Blog

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) akan mengonversi mandatory convertible note PT Bumi Resources Mineral Tbk (BRMS) menjadi saham pada 9 Maret 2011.

Jumlah convertible saham yang dikonversi menjadi saham setara dengan Rp 4,96 triliun dengan harga konversi Rp 670/saham. Jumlah saham yang diterbitkan mencapai 7.401.541.000 saham baru yang akan dicatat atas nama PT Bumi Resources Tbk selaku pelaksana konversi.

"Sehubungan dengan eksekusi ini, kami mohon kesediaan Bursa Efek Indonesia untuk mencatat saham-saham hasil konversi convertible note tersebut," jelas Corsec BRMS Muhammad Sulthon kepada otoritas BEI, di Jakarta, Rabu (2/3).

China Coal-Prices stay at 4-mth low; seen weak til May - Reuters

China's thermal coal prices were stuck at a four-month low of 770 yuan ($117.2) a tonne as supplies continued to outstrip demand, with stockpiles at Qinhuangdao port rising to the highest in more than seven months.

Some Chinese traders remained bearish on the market and voiced concerns that demand would only pick up in late April or May ahead of summer restocking by utilities.
Coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg was flat at 770-780 ($117.19-$118.72) on Wednesday, while stocks at top coal port Qinhuangdao jumped 12.5 percent to 8.47 million tonnes, data from industry website sxcoal.com showed.

Coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg (NAR) was steady at 825-835 yuan.
"Prices won't start moving higher until around May. The outlook for imports will probably only improve ahead of summer, but even that is highly dependent on international prices," said a source at a big trading house.

"We have to remember that China doesn't need to import. They have more than enough coal domestically to feed the entire nation. They only do it when imports are cheaper."
But coal prices in Australia and South Africa have continued to rise in recent weeks, making Chinese coal cheaper by $38 and $9.30 a tonne respectively, based on coal with heating value of 6,000 kcal/kg NAR, Reuters calculations showed.
The arbitrage between Chinese coal prices and Australian imports are at the widest since September 2008.

"The floodgates of Chinese demand closed as suddenly as they had opened in 2009. You get the occasional enquiry but they are just fishing; none of them are serious buyers," said a Singapore-based trader.
Another trader said Chinese buyers were offering some $5-$10 below market rates for Indonesian sub-bituminous coal, which is now hovering at around $87 a tonne, based on coal with a net heating value of 4,900 kcal/kg.
Lured by higher overseas prices, Chinese producers are still trying to sell spot shipments to Japan, but there is a general lack of buying interest in Japan and the Pacific market as whole.

Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, slipped to $132 a tonne versus last week in a thinly traded market which is largely awaiting the results of annual contract negotiations between Australian producers and Japanese utilities.

Queensland's Dalrymple Bay coal chain operating at 88% of capacity - Platts

The Dalrymple Bay coal chain, which feeds Queensland's Dalrymple Bay coal export terminal, is operating at about 88% of its capacity of 85 million mt/year, Dalrymple Bay coal chain chief executive, Ross Dunning said Wednesday.

Two months after heavy rainfall hit the Bowen Basin coalfield and left many coal mines flooded, the Dalrymple Bay coal chain continues to experience problems in sourcing enough coal to export from its 22 coal mines operated by eight coal producers to keep the system running at its potential capacity of 85 million mt/year.

"At the moment, the coal chain is seriously affected by the fact that producers aren't producing sufficient coal for it to rail at full capacity," said Dunning in a telephone interview.
Anglo American, BHP Billiton, Macarthur Coal and Rio Tinto are among the eight coal producers that use the Dalrymple Bay coal chain to transport their coal exports to Dalrymple Bay coal terminal.
Dunning estimated that the Dalrymple Bay coal chain was operating at an annualized capacity of 75 million mt/year.

"Capacity is in the mid-70s million mt per annum," he said.
Coal train operators such as QR National and Pacific National and other users of the coal chain have brought forward planned maintenance to the coal chain's infrastructure while its capacity was being underutilized.
"Service providers are taking advantage of spare capacity. More maintenance is taking place than normal," said Dunning.

As to when production in the Bowen Basin coalfield was likely to return to pre-flood levels, Dunning said it was very difficult to forecast this, and suggested the region's coal industry would need at least a few more weeks for production to begin to recover.

"At least to the end of March, it could be longer, some miners are more seriously affected than others," he said.
Dalrymple Bay coal terminal's vessel queue has continued to ease since peaking at 45 ships in late December as the flooding started to affect coal production in central Queensland.

Dalrymple Bay Coal Terminal had 20 vessels offshore and waiting to load coal exports at 12:00 am Australian Eastern Standard Time March 1 (1400 GMT), according to the coal chain's website.
Coal stocks available for loading at the terminal were 540,700 mt at that time.
"We are still plagued by the same problems in terms of cargo availability. There is not enough cargo coming out of the mines to supply the railway and port," said Dalrymple Bay coal terminal general manager for operations, Greg Smith in an interview.

The coal terminal was presently ordering up 11-12 train loads of coal exports from mines per day, which was significantly below its usual number of 15 coal trains per day, he said.

The terminal was still finalizing its figures for its coal exports for February. However, on a provisional basis Dalrymple Bay coal terminal exported 2.8 million mt of coal in February, still significantly below its capacity of 7 million mt/month, said Smith.

QR National, the operator of the Goonyella rail system which is used to rail coal exports to Dalrymple Bay coal terminal, said in its half-year results statement February 28 that flooding in Queensland could cut its coal haulage volumes by 25 million mt in the year to June 30 2011.

It estimated that 7 million mt of coal exports had already been lost in the six-month period to December 2010, and another 18 million mt of coal exports stood to be lost in the January-June 2011 half-year period.

Palm futures uptrend continues - Business Times

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives continued its upward momentum at the close yesterday, on the back of biofuel demand, dealers said.

The dealers said demand for biofuel has risen, as unrest in the Middle East threatens to keep energy prices high.

March 2011 rose RM46 to RM3,665 a tonne, April 2011 increased RM46 to RM3,624, May 2011 went up RM44 to RM3,590 and June 2011 chalked up RM37 to RM3,565.

Meanwhile, turnover rose to 35,869 lots from 24,896 lots on Tuesday while open interests fell to 104,263 contracts from 106,457 previously.

On the physical market, March South was up RM30 to RM3,660 a tonne.

OIL

LONDON: Brent rose towards US$116 a barrel yesterday on reports of Libyan government counter-attacks on rebel-held towns in the east of the country, heightening fears of a civil war.

Yesterday, forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi attacked the eastern oil town of Brega killing 14 people, rebel officers in the region said.

Brent crude for April delivery pared earlier losses to trade 15 cents higher at US$115.57 a barrel at 1000 GMT after previously sliding by almost 90 cents.

US crude for April delivery rose by 41 cents to trade at US $100.04 a barrel around the same time.
“Oil prices are subject to the ebb and flow of news out of the Middle East ... there’s a good chance of Brent rising to $120 over the next couple of days,” said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC markets.

RUBBER

THE rubber market ended lower for the third consecutive day yesterday , on renewed concerns that the crude oil price surge could hold back the economic recovery.

The Malaysian Rubber Board''s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 17.5 sen to 1,581.5 sen a kg yesterday, while the latex-in-bulk fell 6.5 sen to 1,078.5 sen.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 decreased 24.5 sen to 1,572.5 sen a kg while latex-in-bulk decreased 6.5 sen to 1,076 sen a kg.

TIN

THE tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed unchanged at US$32,305 (US$1.00 = RM3.04) per tonne yesterday despite a downtrend on the London Metal Exchange (LME), dealers said.

They said the LME saw the metal price drop by US$25 per tonne to settle at US$32,300 per tonne due to concerns over the impact of surging oil prices on global growth.

"However, despite the drop on the LME, the KLTM remained very steady due to good buying from Japanese traders," a dealer said.

Meanwhile, on the local front, turnover was higher at 66 tonnes compared with Tuesday's 40 tonnes with Japanese and European buyers being the active participants.

At the opening bell, buyers bid for 70 tonnes while sellers offered 66 tonnes.

The premium between the KLTM and the LME widened to US$470 per tonne from US$445 previously. — Agencies

US stocks edge higher on jobs, economy - News.com.au

US stocks edged higher Wednesday after a surprisingly strong report on hiring by private companies raised hopes that the job market may be improving.

Traders remained concerned about the latest spike in oil prices as Libya's internal conflict deepened. Crude settled above $US102 a barrel for the first time since Sept 2008.

Worries about the impact of high oil prices on the US economy have recently sent stocks lower.

Payroll processor ADP said private employers added 217,000 jobs last month, well above the 180,000 analysts had predicted. That raised hopes that the Government's employment report coming up Friday local time could show a decline in the unemployment rate, which is currently 9 per cent.

The Federal Reserve also reported that the US economy expanded broadly over the last two months. All 12 regions covered by the survey reported "modest to moderate" growth, including a pickup in retail sales.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8.78 points, or 0.1 per cent, to close at 12,066.80.

The S&P 500 rose 2.11, or 0.2 per cent, to 1,308.44. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 wavered between gains and losses throughout the day.

The Nasdaq composite gained 10.66 points, or 0.4 per cent, at 2,748.07.

The escalating conflict in Libya resulted in a surge in crude oil prices over the last week and volatility in global financial markets.

US stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that higher oil prices could threaten the pace of the economic recovery

"When you look at the stock market any given day it's hard to isolate cause and effect, but today we don't have that problem," said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager at Federated Investors.

"Investors will have one eye on oil prices for quite some time."

Retail companies reported mixed earnings reports before the market opened. Costco Wholesale Corp fell 2.5 per cent after reporting earnings that met expectations.

Apple Inc rose almost one per cent after the company's CEO, Steve Jobs, briefly emerged from a medical leave to introduce the second generation of its iPad tablet computer.

Rising stocks outnumbered falling ones two-to-one on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was one billion securities.

Oil Prices May Retreat as Saudi Arabia Boosts Supply, Credit Suisse Says - Bloomberg

Global oil prices will probably decline to below $100 a barrel as Saudi Arabia releases supply from its reserves and demand drops from elevated December levels, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

The rise in prices is “manageable” and central banks are unlikely to raise interest rates “on account of oil alone,” Andrew Garthwaite, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote in a note dated today. Still, any rally driving Brent crude 100 percent higher year-on-year to between $140 and $155 a barrel may be a “trigger point” that has historically led to equities “correcting” by 34 percent, he wrote.

Countries that are significant energy importers and where energy accounts for a large part of the consumer price index such as India, Thailand, the Philippines, Czech Republic and Poland are among the potential losers, according to the report.

Russia, Colombia, Australia, Canada, Malaysia and Norway are potential winners as they are net exporters of oil, the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Weiyi Lim in Singapore

Intiland Development & bond issuance - Insider Stories

Property player PT Intiland Development Tbk (DILD) is aiming to spend Rp1 trillion capital expenditure (capex) this year, Rp400 billion higher than last year, to develop several projects.

With bank loan to equity ratio at 0.06x and hefty financial performance, Intiland remains a wide room to obtain more debts. Which financing will it take?

Base metals weaken tracking weak equities - Commodity Online

Base metals are trading weak on LME because of weakness in global equity markets. Investors are hesitating to take any fresh positions in base metals on renewed concerns that rising crude prices may hamper global economic recovery. Rising crude prices may lead to higher inflationary situation in the world. The recent rise in crude prices is due to ongoing tension in Middle East.

Strong Euro is helping metal complex somewhat. While, strong US economic data look supportive for the base metal complex. Base metal prices are likely to rise. Base metals look fundamentally strong from the present levels. Traders and investors are advised to buy metals on dips.

LME Aluminum 3M prices are likely to rise and could touch USD 2650-2725 per tonne in the coming few days. Copper is also seen go upward and may touch USD 9975-10000 a tonne. Copper is a metal which is strongly correlated with the performance of the economy as it is widely used in building construction, power generation and electronic products. LME Lead 3M prices are also likely to move up and may test USD 2625-2650 a tonne.

Metals may find its direction from global equity indices and currency movements in the next few weeks. Traders are waiting for US unemployment and factory orders data due later this week.

Rabu, 02 Maret 2011

Indonesia May Allow Exports of Lower-Quality Power-Plant Coal - Reuters

Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of power-plant coal, may revise a government plan and allow lower quality coal to be exported after objections from miners, an official said.

“We don’t want this rule to hamper investments although it’s aimed at increasing exports of higher-value coal,” Bambang Setiawan, director general of coal and minerals at the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, said today at a conference in Balikpapan, East Kalimantan province. “Investors are worried that they won’t be able to sell most of their output if the grade limit is too high.”

Indonesia had planned to ban exports of the fuel with an energy value of less than 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram starting in 2014, requiring producers to upgrade the calorie if they want to ship it overseas, Witoro Soelarno, then secretary to the director general of coal and minerals at the energy ministry, said in January.

The price of coal for sale in February with energy value below 5,600 kilocalories a kilogram was set from $63.34 to $95.62 a metric ton, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. That compares with $127.05 a ton for coal with 6,322 kilocalories a kilogram of energy value.

“It’s not an easy and cheap process to upgrade the calories,” Setiawan said. “We need to adjust the limit to give the producers the ability to sell their output without having to invest too much on technology upgrades.”

The government’s main objective in setting the new rule is to increase revenue from coal exports and ensure sufficient supplies of the fuel for state utility PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, he said.

Bakrie Plantations FY10 profit triples - Insider Stories

Palm oil producer PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) is estimated to triple net income to Rp787.35 billion last year from IDR252.78 billion in the previous year.

"Our net income rose because of extraordinary income and higher average selling price [ASP]," said Bakrie Plantations' President Director Ambono Janurianto told Insider Stories today.

ASP last year surged 41.1% to US$905.5 per ton from US$641.8 per ton. Revenue surged 27% to Rp2.95 trillion from Rp2.33 trillion.
The biggest sales are dominated by crude palm oil sales of approximately 62.03% or Rp1.83 trillion. The number was up 8.5% from the previous year sales amounted Rp1.68 trillion.

CPO sales volume fell 18.7% to 227,376 tons from 279,821 tons. The decrease also occurred in kernel sales by 18.1% to 53,095 tons from 64.855 tons.
Rubber sales volume last year was flat to 30,211 tons from 29,217 tons in the previous year. And oleo chemical sales were 1,911 tons in last year.
Bakrie Plantations expects to double its revenue this year because CPO output will increase. Oleochemical sales is expected to contribute Rp2 trillion revenue. CPO production is estimated to rise 30% from 270,000 tons last year.

Laba Petrosea Meroket 25 Kali Lipat ke US$ 42 Juta - Detikfinance

PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) membukukan laba bersih US$ 42,254 juta di tahun 2010. Laba perseroan naik lebih dari 25 kali lipat dari periode sebelumnya, US$ 1,59 juta.

Menurut laporan keuangan perseroan yang dipublikasikan, Rabu (2/3/2011), peningkatan laba utamanya disumbang oleh porsi laba dari PT Santan Batubara (SB) dan PT Tirta Kencana Cahaya Mandiri (TKCM) sebagai perusahaan asosiasi, dengan nilai US$ 14,385 juta.

Pendapatan perseroan turun dari US$ 171,826 juta menjadi US$ 186,949 juta. Dengan beban yang mencapai US$ 131,683 juta, PTRO mencatat laba kotor US$ 55,266 juta.

Laba usaha perseroan juga turun 3,04% menjadi US$ 38,296 juta dari periode sebelumnya tahun lalu, US$39,497 juta. Turunnya performa laba usaha karena beban administrasi yang naik tipis dari US$ 15,9 juta menjadi US$ 16,97 juta.

Namun laba sebelum pajak langsung langsung membaik, bahkan meroket seiring masuknya laba dari perusahaan asosiasi sebesar US$ 14,385 juta. Laba sebelum pajak naik dari hanya US$ 4,564 juta menjadi US$ 51,593 juta.

Laba bersih akhirnya berada pada level US$ 42,254 juta, dengan laba bersih per saham US$ 0,41 dari sebelumnya, US$ 0,01.