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Sabtu, 30 April 2011

PGN Profit Grows 18%, Revenue Up 5.7% - The Indonesia Today

State-owned gas producer PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) posted net profit of Rp2.16 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2011, increased 18% from Rp1.83 trillion in the same period of last year.

It recorded net earning per share (EPS) of Rp86, compared to previous Rp71.

Revenue only rose 5.7% to Rp4.74 trillion from Rp4.49 trillion in the first quarter of 2010.

Gross profit rose 10% to Rp2.99 trillion while operating profit increased 7.8% to Rp2.27 trillion.

As of March 2011, its assets totaled Rp31.19 trillion while liability amounted Rp14.04 trillion.

PGAS is currently priced at Rp4,000 per share. At this price, it has market capitalization of Rp96.97 trillion.

Indosat posts 63% increase in net profit - Insider Stories

Indonesia's second largest cellular operator PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) today reported a 63.3% increase in net profit for the first quarter of this year on higher cellular revenue, lower marketing expenses, forex gain increase.

Indosat, which is currently controlled by Qatar Telecom, posted Rp453.9 billion net profit in 1Q 2011 from Rp278 billion in 1Q 2010.
However, the operator's operating profit fell 10.6% to Rp666.8 billion from Rp746 billion as operating expenses increased 5.6%, mostly driven by higher expenses of employees.

Operating expenses increased 5.6% to Rp4.21 trillion from Rp3.99 trillion. Indosat booked Rp4.88 trillion operating revenue, a 3% growth from Rp4.73 trillion with the only contributor coming from cellular business which slightly made 6.2% increase as Indosat recorded 21.2% growth in subscribers.

Revenue from multimedia, data communication, and internet slightly decreased 7.8% as tight competition spurring tarrif war and fixed line fell 10.2%, contributed by lower revenue from international direct dialing.
Cellular performanceIndosat recorded 45.7 million cellular subscribers in 1Q 2011, a 21.2% increase from 35.7 million subscribers. Average revenue per user of Indosat's GSM products lowered 14.8% to Rp28,800, abating positive impact of higher subscribers. Indosat manages 18,368 base transceiver stations at end of March 2011.

SMCB Membukuan Laba Bersih Rp 209,191 Miliar - TopSaham

Perusahaan pembuat semen, PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk (SMCB) membukuan laba bersih Rp 209,191 miliar pada triwulan I-2011, naik tipis dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu, Rp 204,89 miliar. Laba per saham stagnan pada level Rp 27.

Penjualan perseroan naik 22,79% dari Rp 1,369 triliun menjadi Rp 1,681 triliun. Beban usaha yang naik menjadi Rp 255,92 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp 189,38 miliar menjadikan pertumbuhan laba usaha naik tipis dari Rp 312,21 miliar menjadi Rp 330,98 miliar. Laba kotor juga naik menjadi Rp 586,913 miliar dari periode sebelumnya Rp 501,6 miliar.

Laporan keuangan perseroan, seperti dikutip dari keterbukaan informasi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menyebutkan pula laba sebelum pajak tercatat Rp 298,474 miliar, usai terpangkas oleh beban lain-lain yang mencapai Rp 32,511 miliar.

Aset perseroan hingga triwulan I-2011 mencapai Rp 10,64 triliun, naik tipis dari sebelumnya Rp 10,437 triliun. Dimana posisi kewajiban yang dicatatkan perseroan hingga Maret 2011 sebesar Rp 3,609 triliun, turun dari periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 3,611 triliun.

Bank Mandiri 1Q net profit increases 89% - Insider Stories

The state-controlled lender PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) posted a 89% jump in net profit for the first quarter of this year.

Bank Mandiri President Director Zulkifli Zaini said the bank booked Rp3.78 trillion in 1Q 2011 from Rp2 trillion in 1Q 2010. Net interest margin slightly increased 7.13% to Rp4.96 trillion from Rp4.63 trillion.

Bank Mandiri's fee-based income soared 145.6% to Rp3.68 trillion from Rp1.50 trillion. Operating profit increased 52.8% to Rp4.13 trillion from Rp2.70 trillion.
Total loans grew 24.7% to Rp251.79 trillion from Rp201.94 trillion, while total assets increased 16.71% to Rp251.79 trillion from Rp201.94 trillion.

Yield 5,1% GMTN cegah capital outflow - Bisnis Indonesia

Pemerintah mengklaim penerbitan obligasi global medium term notes (GMTN) senilai US$2,5 miliar dengan yield 5,1% merupakan keberhasilan menangkal aksi pelarian modal secara tiba-tiba.

Rahmat Waluyanto, Direktur Jenderal Pengelolan Utang, menuturkan yield 5,1% yang diperoleh dalam penerbitan GMTN kemarin, merupakan yang terendah sejak 2004. Yield GMTN yang diperoleh Indonesia tersebut juga lebih baik dibandingkan negara lain yang menerbitkan instrument pembiayaan serupa menyusul perbaikan peringkat kredit oleh lembaga-lembaga pemeringkat internasional.

"Perbaikan rating itu akan membuat country risk kita turun, dan kepercayaan pembayaran utang akan lebih baik. Pemerintah optimistis hal ini tidak akan membuat sudden reversal (pembalikan modal secara tiba-tiba) terjadi," ujar dia, hari ini.

Seperti diketahui, pemerintah berhasil menarik pembiayaan dari pasar internasional melalui penerbitan GMTN seri RI0521 (INDO21 – GMTN) bertenor 10 tahun senilai US$2,5 miliar. Tingkat kupon GMTN tersebut adalah 4,87%, dan yield 5,1%.

Menurutnya, pemerintah berhasil memperbesar basis investor domestik dalam kepemilkan obligasi valas, dari 5% menjadi 16%, pada penerbitan GMTN kemarin. Upaya pembiayaan tersebut juga sekaligus mampu mengurangi likuiditas dollar AS yang sangat banyak di dalam negeri di tengah derasnya aliran modal masuk.

Rahmat menambahkan yield global bond Indonesia tertinggi adalah 11,7%, yakni pada penerbitan 2009. Saat itu pemerintah mau mengambil risiko membayar bunga tinggi demi mengamankan APBN agar program-programnya bisa berjalan.

"Waktu itu kita terbitkan walaupun yield tinggi. Tapi positifnya kan kemudian kepercayaan publik makin tinggi karena APBN terjaga," kata Rahmat.

Kendati demikian, lanjut Rahmat, pemerintah berhasil menghemat pembayaran bunga utang hingga Rp15,5 triliun pada 2009 sejalan dengan penurunan yield obligasi negara. Hal positif tersebut berlanjut ke 2010 sehingga penerbitan surat utang dikurangi Rp16 triliun dari rencana awal.

Terkait pinjaman luar negeri, Rahmat mengungkapkan posisi saat ini dalam kondisi aman mengingat setiap tahun Indonesia mendapat kucuran pinjaman program sekitar US$3 miliar. "Kedua kami juga dapat pinjaman proyek yang biasanya kontraknya multi years. Jadi jadi tidak ada masalah," ucapnya.

Beban Naik, Laba BII Turun 27% - Detikfinance

PT Bank Internasional Indonesia Tbk (BII) mengalami penurunan laba bersih 27,88% di triwulan I-2011 menjadi Rp 150 miliar, dari periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 206 miliar.

Presiden Direktur BII Ridha Wirakusumah mengatakan, perseroan mengalami kenaikan biaya overhead sebesar 29% di triwulan I-2011 menjadi Rp 1,05 triliun, dari periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 820 miliar.

"Pendapatan bunga bersih BII naik sebesar 21% menjadi Rp 975 miliar pada Maret 2011, dari periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 809 miliar. Meski terjadi kompetisi ketat pada industri perbankan, BII dapat menjaga marjin bunga bersih sebesar 5,67% dibandingkan triwulan I-2010 sebesar 6,26%," tutur Ridha.

BII di triwulan I-2011 terpaksa meningkatkan penyisihan kerugian penurunan nilai atas kredit menjadi Rp 350 miliar, dari Rp 188 miliar di triwulan I-2010.

Kredit BII sampai triwulan I-2011 mencapai Rp 56,7 triliun, naik 41% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya Rp 40,3 triliun.

Kredit bermasalah (NPL) juga menurun, untuk NPL gross menjadi 2,57% dari 2,79% di triwulan I-2010. Demikian juga untuk NPL net yang turun dari 1,92% menjadi 1,4%.

Dana Pihak Ketiga (DPK) BII di triwulan I-2011 naik 29% menjadi Rp 60,2 triliun dari Rp 46,6 triliun pada triwulan I-2010 lalu.

Indo Mines Confirms Consistent Production at Mangkok Coal - The Indonesia Today

Indo Mines Ltd confirms its Mangkok Coal Project is now producing at a consistent rate, while the Jogjakarta Iron Project still ongoing to complete feasibility study by June 2011.

According to the quarterly report made by Indo Mines, Mangkok Coal Project, South Kalimantan is now producing 25,000 tons per month consistently, and the focus continues on preceding the operational activities in the project.

Meanwhile, The company is assessing the potential to initially produce 2 million tons of iron concentrate per year from the feasibility study.

Indo Mines also looking for further potential to produce 1 million tons of pig iron per year at a later date. Feasibility study for the development will be completed in the next 18 months.

Listed in Australia, Indo Mines Limited is an Indonesian-focused Mining and metals company, having a Contract of Works to mine and process iron sands in a 70%-owned Jogjakarta Project and operates a small coal mine in South Kalimantan.

Krakatau Steel suffers 70% drop in profit - Insider Stories

Indonesia's largest steel maker PT Krakatau Steel Tbk (KRAS) today reported a 69.69% plunge in consolidated net profit for the first quarter of this year because of higher cost of goods sold (COGS).

Krakatau posted Rp141.89 billion net profit or Rp9 per share in 1Q 2010 from Rp468.06 billion or Rp30 per share in 1Q 2010.

The company also suffered a 52.39% drop in gross profit to Rp422.26 billion from Rp886.92 billion as a result of higher cost of goods sold than net revenue growth.
Krakatau Steel's COGS was Rp3.81 trillion, a 7.93% increase from Rp3.53 trillion, while its net revenue increased 3.85% to Rp4.24 trillion from Rp4.41 trillion. Majority stake in Krakatau Steel is still controlled by the state.

Kimia Farma Membukukan Laba Bersih Rp 24,021 Miliar - TopSaham

Perusahaan farmasi, PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) membukukan laba bersih Rp 24,021 miliar pada triwulan I-2011, naik 108,44% dari periode sebelumnya Rp 11,52 miliar. Laba didukung oleh penjualan bersih yang naik hingga Rp 634,385 miliar.

Penjualan bersih tercatat naik 18,45% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu, Rp 535,557 miliar. Beban penjualan juga naik menjadi Rp 442,769 miliar. Laba kotor pun mencatat pertumbuhan dari Rp 150,652 miliar menjadi Rp 191,616 miliar.

Laporan keuangan yang dipublikasikan, Jumat (29/4) menyebutkan laba sebelum pajak pun mencapai Rp 36 miliar, naik hampir dua kali lipat dari periode sebelumnya Rp 18,06 miliar. Dan posisi laba per saham mencapai Rp 4,33 dari periode sebelumnya, Rp 2,08.

Disebutkan, aset perseroan sepanjang Januari hingga Maret 2011 tercatat naik dari Rp 1,466 triliun menjadi Rp 1,647 triliun. Total kewajiban di awal triwulan ini mencapai Rp 509,193 miliar, naik tipis dari sebelumnya, Rp 459,59 miliar.

Perseroan berencana membangun pabrik yang memproduksi Sebacic Acid (bahan baku pembuat bio plastic atau plastik resin). Perseroan bekerja sama dengan perusahaan Jepang, Toray, untuk mengembangkan produksi Sebacic Acid. KAEF kini dalam tahap visibilities studies (VS) atas rencana pendirian pabrik Sebacic Acid di Indonesia.

Rencananya pembangunan baru akan terlaksana di 2012, jika proyek tersebut layak. Pembangunan pabrik atau pengembangan kebun jarak melalui dana dari pihak Jepang.

Pemerintah lelang lima SUN Rp5 triliun - Bisnis Indonesia

Pemerintah akan melakukan lelang lima Surat Utang Negara (SUN) pada 3 Mei 2011 dengan jumlah indikatif sebesar Rp5 triliun untuk memenuhi target pembiayaan APBN 2011.

Kepala Biro Komunikasi dan Layanan Informasi Kementerian Keuangan Yudi Pramadi mengatakan lima SUN yang akan dilelang adalah seri SPN20110804 (new issuance), SPN20120504 (new issuance), FR0055 (reopening), FR0053 (reopening), dan FR0056 (reopening).

"Lelang dibuka pada 3 Mei 2011 pukul 10.00 WIB dan ditutup pukul 12.00 WIB. Sedangkan hasil lelang akan diumumkan pada hari yang sama. Settlement akan dilaksanakan pada 5 Mei 2011," ujar Yudi, dalam rilisnya, hari ini.

Adapun SUN yang akan dilelang mempunyai nominal per unit sebesar Rp1 juta. Untuk SPN 20110804 dengan pembayaran bunga secara diskonto dan jatuh tempo pada 4 Agustus 2011. Kemudian seri SPN20120504 dengan pembayaran bunga secara diskonto dan jatuh tempo 4 Mei 2012.

Seri FR0055 memiliki tingkat bunga tetap sebesar 7,375% dan jatuh tempo pada 15 September 2016 dengan pembayaran kupon dilakukan setiap 15 Maret dan 15 September.

Seri FR0053 dengan tingkat suku bunga tetap sebesar 8,250% dan jatuh tempo pada 15 Juli 2021, dimana pembayaran kupon dilakukan setiap 15 Januari dan 15 Juli. Serta FR0056 dengan tingkat suku bunga tetap sebesar 8,375% dan jatuh tempo pada 15 September 2026, yang pembayaran kuponnya dilakukan setiap 15 Maret dan 15 September.

Garuda Raup Rp 5,1 Triliun Dalam 3 Bulan - Detikfinance

PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk (GIAA) mencatat pendapatan Rp 5,189 triliun pada triwulan I-2011, meningkat 49% dari periode yang sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp 3,486 triliun.

Demikian disampaikan Direktur Utama GIAA, Emirsyah Satar usai rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS) perseroan di Hotel Ritz Calton, SCBD Jakarta, Jumat (29/4/2011).

"Operating revenue (pendapatan operasi) naik 49% menjadi Rp 5,189 triliun," jelasnya.

Ia menerangkan, terjadi penurunan persentase atas kerugian operasional dibandingkan periode-periode sebelumnya. Di mana posisi hingga triwulan I-2011 mencapai Rp 258 miliar, menurun 28% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 361 miliar.

"Setiap quarter cycle, selalu lost. Tapi tahun ini lebih kecil 28%," tutur Emirsyah. Namun ia enggan menyebutkan pencapaian laba bersih perseroan, dengan alasan laporan keuangan lengkap akan disampaikan kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) malam ini.

Ia menambahkan, jumlah penumpang hingga Maret 2011 mencapai 3,67 juta orang, dibandingkan dari periode sebelumnya 2,57 juta orang. Sementara kapasitas produksi (availability seat kilometer atau ASK), naik 40% dari 3,7 miliar kursi kilometer ke 5,2 miliar kursi kilometer.

"Dengan demikian yield penumpang meningkat naik 71,7%," tambahnya.

Tak Bagi Dividen

Sementara itu, dalam RUPS pemegang saham menyepakati laba bersih di 2010 sebesar Rp 515,521 miliar digunakan sebagai pengurang saldo rugi tahun buku sebelumnya. Sehingga perseroan tak membagi dividen.

"Keuntungan tahun berjalan, jadi pengurang. Berdasarkan berhitungkan kita, untuk menghilangkan kerugian kumulatif lama sekali. Maka kita lakukan kuasi reorganisasi. Mudah-mudahan dilakukan pada semester II, dan minta persetujuan dalam RUPSLB kemudian," kata Direktur Keuangan Garuda Elisa Lumbantoruan.

Aneka Tambang Reports 72% Profit Growth - The Indonesia Today

State-owned miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) posted net profit of Rp347 billion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2011, surged 72% from Rp201 billion in the same period of last year.

It recorded net earning per share (EPS) of Rp36, compared to previous Rp21.

Revenue jumped 20% to Rp1.99 trillion from Rp1.66 trillion in the first quarter of 2010.

Gross profit rose 32% to Rp626 billion while operating profit increased 36% to Rp470 billion.

As of March 2011, its assets totaled Rp12.59 trillion while liability amounted Rp2.65 trillion.

ANTM is currently priced at Rp2,275 per share. At this price, it has market capitalization of Rp21.7

Bumi 1Q coal sales estimated US$1.22b - Insider Stories

Indonesia's coal miners Berau Coal Energy and Bumi Resources are calculated to post US$304.63 million and US$1.22 billion in coal sales in the first quarter of this year.

Berau Coal, Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), and Arutmin Indonesia today reported a 9% increase, slight decreased of 9.2% and 0.5% respectively in coal production to 4.1 million tons, 8.2 million tons, and 6 million tons respectively in the first quarter of this year, a document provided by Bumi Plc revealed today.
Berau, KPC, and Arutmin posted average selling prices (ASP) of US$74.3 per ton, US$92.8 million per ton, and US$77.1 per ton in 1Q 2011. Referring to the ASP, Berau is calculated to book US$304.63 million in coal sales and US$1.22 billion for KPC and Arutmin.

PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk, that is 75% owned by London-listed Bumi Plc, previously Vallar Plc, recorded 4.1 million tons coal production in 1Q 2011 from 3.76 million tons. Overburden removal increased 33.3% in 1Q 2011. Berau sales increased 53%.
PT Kaltim Prima Coal, that is 65% owned by PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), produced 8.2 million tons from 9.03 million tons. Overburden removal was 1% higher in 1Q 2011.
Bumi is 25% owned by Bumi Plc. PT Arutmin Indonesia, which is 70% owned by Bumi, produced 6 million tons from 6.03 million tons. Arutmin's overburden removal rose 37%.

Outlook for 2011
Berau Coal is expecting to produce 20.4 million tons in 2011 compared with 17.4 million tons in 2010. Referring to 1Q production figure, Berau reached 20.09% of the target this year.
KPC and Arutmin are expecting to produce 66 million tons this year from 60.4 million tons last year. At end of 1Q 2011, KPC and Arutmin reached 21.51% of the full year's target.

XL Axiata Catatkan Peningkatan Pendapatan Usaha Sebesar 9% - TopSaham

PT XL Axiata Tbk (XL) mencatatkan pendapatan usaha meningkat sebesar 9% YoY menjadi Rp4,5 triliun dan laba bersih sebesar Rp756 miliar (naik 26% YoY) kuartal pertama 2011.

Presiden Direktur XL, Hasnul Suhaimi mengatakan EBITDA mencapai Rp2,4 triliun (naik 50% YoY), di mana EBITDA margin tetap stabil di level 52% pada akhir Maret 2011. Selain itu jumlah pelanggan bertambah sebesar 21% YoY dari 32,6 juta di kuartal 1-2010 menjadi 39,3 juta di kuartal 1-2011.

Disebutkan, tarif untuk Voice/SMS sudah sangat rendah. "Kami melihat tidak ada benefitnya untuk menurunkan tarif lebih dalam karena elastisitasnya sudah tidak ada lagi.

"Kami tidak berniat untuk terlalu agresif dalam merespon kompetitor kami. Dengan meningkatnya popularitas layanan Mobile Data Service (MDS), kami mengharapkan sumber pertumbuhan pendapatan dikemudian hari berasal dari layanan MDS," kata Hasnul.


Disebutkan, perseroan telah meluncurkan portal XLgo! untuk pengguna layanan data pada bulan November tahun lalu dan pada akhir Mar’11, sudah ada sekitar 6 juta pengguna yang mengakses portal tersebut.

Sesuai dengan fokus XL di layanan MDS, XL meluncurkan beberapa inisiatif sepanjang kuartal 1-2011. XL menawarkan paket XL Blackberry 3 in 1 dengan tarif Rp 125 ribu/bulan, meliputi full BlackBerry service, telepon gratis ke 3 nomor XL yang terdaftar dan gratis SMS ke semua operator.

Soal penawaran gratis BlackBerry roaming sebelumnya, XL menambahkan area layanan di 2 negara yaitu Macau dan Taiwan (untuk seluruh pelanggan prabayar dan pascabayar) dan juga Filipina (khusus pelanggan pascabayar). Sehingga saat ini, XL telah menawarkan layanan gratis BlackBerry roaming di 10 negara.

XL juga meluncurkan layanan data bacaan dalam format digital, XL Baca, sehingga pelangggan dapat membaca majalah, koran dan buku melalui format digital yang 40% lebih murah dibandingkan format cetak. Sebagai tahap awal, layanan ini dapat diakses melalui Huawei S7 dan selanjutnya akan dikembangkan untuk dapat diakses melalui ponsel smartphone lainnya. XL adalah operator pertama di Indonesia yang meluncurkan layanan ini.

Jumat, 29 April 2011

BBRI Higher ROE, Lower NPL - AAA

2010 dividend payout is inline with the estimate at 20%, implying a yield of only 1.7%. However, future NPL should go lower due to relatively manageable inflation. At the same time, BBRI ROE still is the biggest among peers. BUY.

± 1Q11 ROE at 37%; Net Profit Jumped 52% yoy
Today Bank Rakyat published their first quarter net profit of Rp3.3 trillion. Jumped by 52% yoy. Across the board, the number was in line, net profit fueled 24% of our forecast, signaling that this second biggest bank in Indonesia should book Rp13.6 trillion net profit by the end of year. 1Q11 number were strong, unlike BBNI which showed flat growth on the upper line. BBRI’s net interest income rose 22% yoy, fee based up 50% yoy. Those translated into higher NIM of 9.7% from 9.4% while 1Q11 ROE reached 37%.

± Better Asset Quality, NPL Down Almost 100 bps
Loan grew 20% yoy to Rp251 trillion, on the back of the increase in deposits of 20%, forming an LDR ratio at 85%. CASA reached 55% as the bank are moving more into urban customers to eye low cost funding through “Untung Beliung”. NPL pressed down to 3.1% from 4.1%, as the medium loan, the one that brought most bad debt loan decreased. We expect that by the end of year, NPL should go lower to 2.5% with ample coverage ratio of more than 200%. Our view on BBRI’s NPL is supported from relatively low interest rate regime.

± Valuation, BUY with TP Rp7,400
With reference to our previous report on BBRI “Beating The Street”, which we estimated dividend payout would be around 19%, yesterday, in general annual meeting, the company declared a dividend payout of 20%. This will translate into dividend yield of just 1.7%, however, it should be noted that the bank in 2011, will still have the biggest ROE among peers with manageable NPL. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock, as our TP still offers 13.0% potential upside. Our TP implies 3.8x PBV, slightly higher than its +1Std of 3.5x. Currently the bank’s share price only traded at 3.2x PBV. BUY.

BBNI Moderate But Impressive - Indopremier

For 1Q11, BBNI booked modest asset performance, where loans only grew by 16.7% due to negative growth of medium business. However, BBNI drove solid bottom line growth of 22.1% on the back of lower expenses, especially cost of deposit and operating expenses. LDR increased to 73.3%, or on track to meet BI requirement of 75%, and assisted with improve NPL to 4.1% from 4.7%. We project loans to grow 16.3%, adequate to boost FY11 bottom line to 28.8% triggered by lower expenses. BUY Recommendation for BBNI with new TP of Rp 4,900 per share, provides 21% upside potential.

Moderate Loans Growth of 16.7% YoY
BBNI reported remarkable loans growth in corporate, consumer and international business for worth above 27% YoY in 1Q11. However legacy problem in middle business, particularly on its NPL ratio. Middle business loans reported negative growth of 7% YoY, with NPL of 10.6%, improved figure than 11.9% in 1Q10. It also has become the management concern of casing loans to meet LDR ratio >75%. Management is in the process to re-established middle business and expect to meet normal grow in year end 2011. We forecast BBNI to deliver 16.3% loans book in 2011 with improve NPL to 4%.

Solid Bottom Line
Despite moderate loans growth, BBNI achieved net profit of Rp 1.25 tn, 22.1% YoY increase. Deposits modest growth of 7.8%, combine with 600bps CASA improved to 60% has drag down cost of fund (IDR only) to 3.3% in 1Q11 from 3.8% in 1Q10. The sluggish was the function of management strategy to slow down deposit growth after equity insertion, and seasonal factor which we anticipate to gradually improves in the next three quarters ahead. Operational expenses decrease 7.6% YoY due to normalized PSAK 24, which benefit 1Q11 to record lower operating cost. Additionally, BBNI also embarked to demonstrate centralize operation system, which pools the back office function in one center office and let branch office fulfilled by front liners. Benefit to more consumers while cost is minimized. We estimate BBNI to delivered Rp 4.999 bn net income this year, or increase 21.9% YoY.

Write off and Recovery on Going
In line with improving NPL to 4.1%, BBNI started to maintain modest coverage ratio (LLR/NPL) of 120.2% in 1Q11, decline 90bps from 121.1% in 1Q10. Significant write off still the main factors of improved NPL. During 1Q11, BBNI wrote off Rp 917 bn loans, or increase from Rp 906 bn in 1Q10. We anticipate the lofty write off episodes will continue through this year in order to settle benign NPL.

BNI Securities to Right Issue of Rp 114 bn
The strategic investors to invest in BNI securities is SBI Securities Co Japan, which is expected to acquire approximately 25% of BNI ownership through rights issue scheme that will be conducted by BNI Securities in 2Q11. BNI Securities is estimated proceeding Rp 114 bn from this right issue. SBI Securities Co is the largest online trading securities company in Japan that expected to strengthen BNI Securities online trading business.

1Q2011 results - CLSA

Astra (ASII IJ) good and in line. Net Profit 1Q was Rp4.3tn, up 7% QoQ, 20% YoY. This came at 29% of our FY expectation, and 27% of consensus. Strong operational data from all divisions in 1Q (auto sales, heavy equipment sales etc), as can be seen in table below. The rise in net profit was also boosted by strong subsidiaries income. Maintain BUY. See attached for details.

Indofood CBP - in line. Revenues grew by 9% YoY, mostly driven by price increases to offset rising costs. Top line represents 23% of our forecast and 24% of consensus numbers respectively. Net profit up 17% YoY, 22% of our numbers and 24% of consensus. ICBP now trades at 20x 11CL PE and 18x 12CL PE. We have an O-PF rating on ICBP with target price offering 11% upside. See attached file.

London Sumatera (LSIP IJ) reports came in considerably ahead of our numbers and consensus forecast: Sales +73% to Rp1,176bn (27% of CL11 and consensus FY11). Operating profit+126% YoY to Rp528bn (30% of CL11, 32% of consensus FY11). Net profit +135% YoY to Rp394bn (28% of CL11, 29% of consensus FY11). Awaiting analyst comment.

Bank Tabungan (BBTN IJ) – in line, on the lower end. BTN 1Q11 net profit increased by 2% YoY to Rp245bn, representing 20% of 11CL estimates. Most metrics were weaker on a QoQ basis given the combination of seasonality and very strong 4Q10 earnings. See attached file.

Bukit Asama (PTBA IJ) - broadly in line. Results were up 108% YoY but 16% of our full year forecast. Not out of line, we wont be making any adjustments to our forecasts. First quarter volumes are seasonally low due to the rainy season. Remain BUY. The stock has the fastest volume growth in our Indonesian coal universe over three years.

Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) – in line. - reported Net Profit of Rp136bn in 1Q11, +20% YoY, -23% QoQ due to an extraordinary gain booked in 4Q10. Recurring income still constitutes a strong 53% of total revenue for the quarter, and grew by 20%. Revenue for property development rose 32% YoY, with hospital revenue rose 17% YoY:
Full 1Q result is not out yet, hence we can't provide more details. But, 1Q11 Net Profit came at 21% of our FY11 forecast and 22% of consensus. Revenue in 1Q10 was down 2% QoQ, +25% YoY, at 24% of our FY11 forecast. Pls see file for more details.
BP Plantation (BWPT IJ) – in line . NP grew 90% YoY, but came in at 19% of consensus FY11 forecast. 1Q11 production +51% YoY, ASP +21% YoY (but 5% lower than AALI due to sales timing). Net gearing increased to 69% making BWPT the most leveraged planter under coverage. Valuation looks rich relative to peers: BWPT is trading on 15.8x consensus '11 earnings, vs 12.2x for Indo peers. See file for details.

Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ): 1Q11 net 3.26tr, +51.6%YoY and 25.7% of FY11FC. Very strong numbers, analyst waiting for details during conference call this morning.

Indofood (INDF/ICBP): 1Q11 net numbers out and quite good. That will help sentiment as they are planning to list subsdiary Ivomas soon.

Bank Tabungan (BBTN IJ): 1Q11 net IDR 245bn +2%YoY and 22% of FY11. In line, but on low side.

Bank Bukopin (BBKP IJ) net profit of Rp156bn (+46% YoY), 26% of consensus. Total equity reached Rp3.9tn, up 50% YoY as new capital raised from rights issue kicked in. LDR sunk to 58.6% as deposit grew much faster than loan (32% vs 7% YoY). Lower loan has also inflated the NPL ratio to 3.7% (+70bps YoY) though nominal NPL has decreased to Rp921bn (-5.73% QoQ).

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ). Total revenues grew by 8% YoY, making up 20% of our FY number and consensus. Gross profit grew by 11% YoY with gross margins expanding from 50% to 52% in 1Q11. Operating profit grew by 8% YoY, making up 21% of our forecast and 20% of consensus numbers. See file for details.

Media Nusantara (MNCN IJ) - in line. We're continuing to see strong advertising growth this year. Advertising revenues grew by 29% YoY in 1Q11. YTD the company has increased its rate card by 20%. Overall revenues grew by 15% YoY diluted by its other businesses including print, radio, content, and VAS. EBITDA grew by 25% YoY as EBITDA margin expands from 32% to 35% in 1Q11. This is due to an increased portion of in-house produced contents. Net income grew by 27% YoY, making up 25% of our numbers.

BCA 1Q review + Indo banks - CLSA

Banks – Indonesia country visit by regional bank head Daniel Tabbush

Daniel visited banks in Jakarta and remains positive on the Indo banks. He points out that there is no sign of structural margin pressure and that many bank NIM’s may be understated due to low LDR and high liquid assets. Favorable demographic will continue to drive this structural growth. And despite strong loan growth (over 20% CAGR in last five years), Indonesia remains the most underpenetrated with credit/GDP of 28%. OWT Indso banks vs Asian banks.

· Loan growth remains strong with banks indicating 22% to 39% rates of growth
· The micro finance lenders Danamon, BRI and BTPN are seeing the highest rates of growth
· System margins are 6.5% with micro finance lenders at 10-13%, given their high yields of 25% here
· Credit quality is improving, especially for BNI, a turn around story, but Bank Jabor shows rising NPLs
· BNI's NPLs are down from 18% to 4% over the past three years and this year should mark the bottom
· Mortgage NPLs for Indo's banks are exceptionally low at 0.2% on average, and micro finance NPLs are 2-4%
· The BTPN story remains unique, with its pension loans (80% of book) and micro finance loans (20%) and 4% ROA
· Indonesia's banks remain the best performers in absolute terms and are on par with China vs Asian banks YTD (OWT)

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) 1Q review – in line by Bret Ginesky

As can be expected from blue chip BCA, solid results overall. NIM improved to 5.4%. However, Bret is downgrading recs to UPF solely because of valuation. BBCA now trading at 4.7x book.

Key points:
BCA’s 1Q11 reported net profit of Rp2.0tn, up 4% YoY and represent 21% of our FY11 forecast.
BCA’s NIM increased 30bps YoY and 13bps QoQ to 5.42% as funding mix and costs (CoF) continue to improve.
Higher LDR and a stable NIM will drive 11CL earnings growth of 14%. As a result, we are tweaking our 11CL EPS forecast by +1% to Rp395 reflecting a higher net interest income outlook.
Valuations appear stretched at current levels, lower to Underperform as near term upside appears limited. BCA is in a league of its own as the most liquid, well capitalized and premier depository in Indonesia. However, this league does not justify a multiple of nearly 5x PBV and 19x earnings, representing a premium of 34% and 58% to its Indonesian peers.
We continue to think BCA is a phenomenal bank, with ROA and ROE at a 21% and 18% premium to Indo peers, respectively, but we would recommend BMRI or BNI to investors.

Berlian Laju Tanker, Buana Tailwinds - U/R, 36% upside to SOTP - CLSA

The IPO process of Berlian Laju Tanker’s domestic subsidiary “Buana” is now underway. BLTA is looking to raise up to US$150m in proceeds. Pricing/allocation is scheduled for the 05th of May

Buana is a purely domestic Indonesian based tanker company with a focus on energy related shipping services serving the oil, gas, FPSO and FSO and chemical sectors throughout Indonesia which have a strong growth profile given Indonesia’s large energy reserves. It operates a total of 21 tankers and is protected from foreign competition via the Cabotage principle.

The event is major catalyst for BLTA for the following reasons:
1. Unlocks considerable value in a higher-growth/more attractive asset currently depressed and embedded within BLTA’s business.
2. De-leverages the parent balance sheet allowing for a more streamlined capital structure (Net/Debt Equity falling from 2.1x to 1.7x)
3. Provides for better access to capital markets fuelling the expansion and growth of the domestic assets

Specialty chemical tanker rates breaking-out positive for the parent business

With 80% of revenues from specialized chemical shipping, BLTA is the most leveraged play on a recovery in chemical tanker rates which is well underway.
Specialty chemical freight rates have spiked sharply this year (Clarkson data) which will be reflected in 1H11 earnings. In addition the company has minimal exposure to rising fuel costs as 2/3 of its contracts are on a “time charter” basis in which the customer is responsible for paying fuel charges.

Trading at 0.5x PB the stock offers a unique risk/reward profile as it is not pricing in the unlocking of value from the Buana IPO or the recent sharp increase rise in chemical tanker rates. The stock also looks very attractive when compared to regional shipping company’s which are currently trading at 1.1x P/B.

Our SoTP values BLTA at Rp524 per share implying 36% upside from current levels.

Astra International; Good start to the year; ; Rp55,600; TP Rp65,000; ASII IJ - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
· 1Q11 net profit surged 42.8% yoy to Rp4,303bn, well ahead of market expectations of Rp3,924bn
· Auto production to slow in 2Q
· Maintain BUY and TP of Rp65,000

Comment on Results
Astra International (ASII) reported 1Q11 net profit of Rp4,303bn (+42.8% y-o-y, +7.5% q-o-q), well ahead of market expectations of Rp3,924bn. 1Q net earnings met 26% of our FY11F earnings estimate. Upside surprise came from a combination of higher net earnings from its automotive division (Rp2.1tn +28% y-o-y), a big jump in non-operating income (net) of Rp441bn (from Rp197bn in 1Q10), and lower-than-expected effective tax rate of 18.5% (consensus 20.5-22.5%). Specifically, on its automotive division, both sales of 4W and 2W reached new record highs, with 4W +27% y-o-y to 125k vehicles and 2W +32% y-o-y to 990k units. At the bottomline, ASII’s net margin improved 0.9% ppt y-o-y to 11.1%. On a positive note, ASII’s well-diversified business portfolio was well-positioned to defend its margins, mainly via its agribusiness & mining.

Recommendation
After the surprisingly strong 1Q11 automotive sales data and higher net earnings, we expect consensus estimates to trend upwards. However, the upside potential in earnings will be limited by slowing auto production in 2Q. Disruption to global automotive manufacturing caused by Japan earthquake will have varying effects across Asia . In fact, according to the latest information, we estimate that about 27K units of its domestic production (ex. import) will be lost during the year. While the company still finds it difficult to determine the full potential damage from the disaster, we maintain our current forecast for now. The counter is currently trading at 13.6x FY11 PE, 28% lower than its peak valuation from

Bank Central Asia; Shift in liquid asset investments positive to topline; Hold; Rp7,600; TP Rp7,100; BBCA IJ - DBS Vickers

at a Glance
· 1Q11 net profit was within expectations even though it comprised 21% of our and consensus estimates. Traditionally 1Q is a slower quarter.
· Shift in its liquid assets composition ensured that NIM and net interest income remained on an uptrend.
· No change to our estimates. Maintain Hold and Rp7,100 TP

Comment on Results
Net profit of Rp2.0bn was driven by net interest income as NIM expanded. Although the decline in lending yields outpaced cost of funds, BBCA’s net interest income was higher as it shifted its liquid assets from SBI (held in trading accounts) to higher-yielding BI term deposits. This shifted revenues from non-interest income (which declined) to net interest income. Under PSAK 50/55, income from SBI held in the trading account is recognized as non-interest income. Pre-provision profits were lower due to higher expenses to support business expansion. Asset quality remained resilient with NPL ratio at 0.6%. Loans contracted due to business cyclicality – corporate and commercial/SME loans shrank by 7%/3% q-o-q respectively. Consumer loans remained strong growing at 6% q-o-q of which mortgages being the mainstay (comprising 50% of total consumer loans). Total deposits declined with lower time deposits despite continued growth in CASA. CASA to total deposits stood at 77% in 1Q11. Capital improved after taking into account previous year’s profits bringing total CAR to 14.8%.

Recommendation
BBCA remains Indonesia ’s premium bank with a solid deposit and transactional banking franchise. However, valuations remain dear at 4.8x FY11 P/BV. Maintain Hold and TP at Rp7,100 based on the Gordon Growth Model (26% sustainable ROE, 11% growth, and 14% cost of equity). Our target price is equivalent to 4.6x FY11 P/BV and 18.5x FY11 PE. Downside risks relate to NIM, which is already low, further exacerbated by competitive pressures as well as its reluctance to gear up its balance sheet for growth in order to protect asset quality, and its low loan-to-deposit ratio, which could drag ROEs.

Bumi Resources: Incorporating new guidance and new coal prices; expect strong 1Q11 - JP Morgan

· Incorporate new coal price and new guidance: We revisit our model on BUMI and incorporate the following adjustments: (1) incorporating the better-than-expected FY10 results; (2) lowering our volume estimate from 70MM tons to 66MM tons, in line with the new guidance; (3) raising our FY11 coal price assumption from US$120/ton to US$124/ton and long-term coal price assumption from US$90/ton to US$95/ton. We believe there could be upside to BUMI's US$77/ton ASP guidance in FY11, given the current high coal price; we forecast an average ASP of US$85/ton; (4) early repayment of CIC loan; (5) incorporating BRMS forecasts; and (6) extending our PT from Dec-11 to June-12.

· Raise FY11 earnings forecast by 5.6% and expect strong 1Q11: The adjustments to our model result in us raising our FY11 EPS forecast by 5.6% as ASP is adjusted upwards by 3.1% and cost is adjusted downwards by 2.6%. Currently, our FY11 net income forecast of US$516MM is 1.2% above the consensus forecast of US$509MM. We expect 1Q11 net income to be US$129MM, up 33% Y/Y and 12% Q/Q.

· Florenceville's cancellation should not deter debt repayment: BUMI announced that Florenceville Financial Ltd has cancelled the purchase of 20% of Gallo Oil due to Yemen’s political situation. There will be no write-off due to this cancellation. The US$290MM cash yet to be received will not deter the US$600MM repayment of CIC loan as BUMI has received a total of US$466MM from Bukit Mutiara (US$250MM), Nusantara Pratama Indah (US$170MM) and Thionville Financier (US$45.5MM); on top of its expected FY11 EBITDA of US$2.2B.

· Maintain OW, extend and raise PT to Rp4,500: We extend our PT time horizon from Dec-11 to June-12. This results in us raising our PT from Rp4,000 to Rp4,500. We expect further purchases by Vallar and Batu Hijau IPO to re-rate the stock to our PT. Risks: Volatility and unfavorable corporate actions.

Bank Central Asia (BCA) - 1Q results: Earnings Growth falters, could prompt a correction - ALERT - JP Morgan

• 1Q results disappointing: BCA’s 1Q FY11 net profis came in at Rp2.02T, well below our Rp2.4T estimate. Net profit grew by 5.5% y/y, but was down 15% q/q.

• Revisions likely – biased towards the downside: 1Q net profit was just over 20% of FY11E consensus PAT, and we believe the direction of revisions is likely to be lower.

• Loan growth a bit slower than expected – seasonality to blame: Loan growth in 1Q was 25% y/y, healthy, but below the 30% that we had forecast. Management highlighted seasonality, as although lending declined 2.4% q/q, total facilities extended grew 2% q/q and 28% y/y, suggesting that a pick-up in credit growth could be quick. BCA’s consumer credit grew by 36% y/y in 1Q, while corporate loans grew by 14% y/y.

• On the positive side, margins increased in 1Q and management appears to have eschewed attracting time deposits. Savings and demand deposits grew by 19% and 22% y/y, respectively, while time deposits contracted by 3% y/y. Interestingly, BCA’s demand deposit base is now bigger than its time deposit base. The overall impact of better asset yields and lower funding costs is that the bank’s net interest margin increased by 13bp q/q.

• But management cautious on the margin outlook due to the reserve impact in 2Q: Management noted that the additional LDR-based reserve (applicable from 31 March) would manifest as additional pressure on margins – with a 10-15bp impact from the new norms.

• Valuations leave little room to absorb disappointment: Trading at 4.7x 12M forward PBV, BCA’s valuations do not leave much room for disappointment. We therefore expect these results (declared after market) to cause some near-term downside in response.

BBRI (TP Rp7,900) : Lower payout to strengthen capital structure - Deutsche Bank

BRI shareholders have approved a 20% dividend payout, which is below our payout assumptions of 30% throughout our forecast years (2011-13F). This implies a dividend per share of Rp93, which translates to gross yield of 1.4%. Despite lower payout, we view this as positive for BRI.

This will further limit BRI's capital risks. We have adjusted our projection to reflect lower payout. Consequently, BRI CAR would rise by 30bps in 2011F to 13%, and by 60bps in 2012F to 14%. This would also mean increasing the bank's sustainable loan growth level from 22-25% to potentially 25-27% without much risks to capital. The adjusted ROAE remains muted with BRI still delivering ROAE of 28-31% in 2011-12F.

On the back of this, we reiterate BRI as one of our top picks in Indonesian banking sector. Lower dividend payout would alleviate BRI's capital risks. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp7,900. Despite the stock's strong price performance in the recent month, at 12.5x 11F earnings, BRI is amongst cheapest banks in our Indonesian banking universe.

1Q11 earnings underway: PTBA, INDF, APLN winners - JP Morgan

1Q11 results underway, plenty more to come over the next few days. Agung Podomoro Land (APLN), Indofood (INDF), and Perusahaan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) seem to exceed market expectations. Watch out for Bumi Resources also; Stevanus Juanda revised up PxT to Rp4500 as te stock is off restricted list. Bank Central Asia results may trigger profit taking; over 20x P/E and 4.7x price-to-book is not making any sense unless the bank can grow EPS by 30% per year for the next 5 years (which I very much doubt). Results from smaller banks un-impressive so far (PNBN, BBTN), the exception being BBKP after rights issue. Astra International good results but cautious outlook on Q2 and Q3 may capped the upside potential. Could be time for mid and small caps that can show impressive Q1; watch out property and construction space.

* Research call – Bank Central Asia (BBCA): 1Q results: Earnings Growth falters, could prompt a correction. BCA’s 1Q FY11 net profis came in at Rp2.02T, well below our Rp2.4T estimate. Net profit grew by 5.5% y/y, but was down 15% q/q. Revisions likely – biased towards the downside: 1Q net profit was just over 20% of FY11E consensus PAT, and we believe the direction of revisions is likely to be lower. Last rating is an O/W. My take – If consensus profit for FY11 converge to around Rp9trn, BBCA would trade on 20.8x P/E and 4.7x 12M forward PBV. The share price factors-in aggressive growth potential for BBCA that is unlikely to be met over the medium term. Sell.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-585637-0.pdf

* Research call – Bumi Resources (BUMI): Stevanus Juanda revised up PxT from Rp4000 to Rp4500, as the stock is no longer on a blackout for JPMorgan research. He raised FY11 EPS by 5.6%, previewing 1Q11 net income to come in at US$129mn or 33% yoy. My take – Steve may end-up revising his FY11 net profit forecast of US$516mn (consensus US$511mn) further upward post 1Q11 results and announcement of contracted selling price for year 2011, likely to come in May. Remains a conviction Buy for me.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-585506-0.pdf

* Research call – PTBA: Strong net income growth re-affirming FY11 estimate by the Street. 1Q11 net income came in at Rp761bn; up 108% Y/Y and 23% Q/Q. It accounts for 20% of JPM and consensus full year forecast of Rp3.8 trillion and Rp3.7 trillion. My take – PTBA recently signed price contract with PLN (as buyer) at Rp805k/ton, vs. realized ASP of Rp751k/ton in 1Q11 (+35% yoy). So the results is looking good versus consensus at 20% of full year. Cash cost per ton only rose 7% yoy, that was quite impressive. The stock has lagged the JCI by 8.7% ytd and by 12% on 12M basis. Could be a good candidate for portfolio rotation buying at 13.5x and 11.7x P/E for 2011-12.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-585616-0.pdf

* Research call – Astra International (ASII): Strong results, but will they translate into revisions in the wake of supply risks? Strong 1Q results, PAT up 43% y/y: Astra’s results were strong. Revenues grew by 30% y/y and net profit by 43% y/y to Rp4.3T (up
7.5% q/q), on healthy contributions from almost all businesses. 1Q profits were in range (3.5% below) of our Rp4.45T forecast, with the difference mostly explained by the earnings miss at Astra Agro. My take – I would agree with Aditya that at in the current environment, consensus may opt to hold back on raising estimates until there is more clarity on the magnitude of supply risks. In this situation Astra’s stock price could be range-bound in the near term, despite the supportive results. Hold.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-585588-0.pdf

* Research call – Astra Agro Lestari (AALI): AALI’s 1QPAT at Rp.653bn was well below our Rp.773bn estimate. Although revenues were in line, margins were well below estimates and resulted in the earnings miss. 1Q PAT was 25% of consensus FY11E estimates, and we think that with CPO prices easing revisions to consensus and JPM forecasts are likely to be biased to the downside. Costs higher – driven by fertilizer & newly mature acreage: We estimate that cash costs of nucleus CPO were about Rp 5,425/kg, up a substantial 28% y/y. AALI reclassified 16,700 ha of CPO plantations as
mature in 1Q (a 11% growth in mature acreage q/q). This would have resulted in expensing of costs (as opposed to capitalizing of immature plantation expenses) – but with possible low yields from the newly mature plantations. My take – London Sumatera and IFAR looking like a better bet for me, judging from Indofood’s strong results released today.
https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-585461-0.pdf

BBNI Slow but steady - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
• 1Q11 earnings within expectations comprising 24% of our and 23% consensus FY11 estimates.
• Loans grew 2% q-o-q while deposits shrank by 3%, a normal 1Q trend experienced by banks.
• BBNI poised for a turnaround story in 2H11.
• Maintain Buy and Rp4,300 TP.

Comment on Results
Net profit of Rp1.25bn was within expectations. Revenue was driven by net interest income. The higher net interest income arose from improved treasury activities with higher government bonds outstanding with average yield of 7.0-7.5%. Although NIM slid marginally, the 2% q-o-q loan growth and yields from the government bonds were sufficient to ensure growth at the net interest income level. Cost of funds continued to decline. Asset quality continued to improve with gross NPL ratio declining to 4.1% largely due to the improved medium segment NPL portfolio.

Meanwhile, the decline in non-interest income for the quarter was due to unrealized forex revaluation losses arising from the stronger Rupiah. Provisions were significantly lower during the quarter. While BBNI only booked 2% loan growth q-o-q, (typically slow in every 1Q), we understand that there is still a strong pipeline ahead for the bank. Our loan growth forecast of 20% should be achievable as loan growth momentum picks up over the next 2-3 quarters. CASA to total deposit remained intact at 60% despite a 3% contraction in deposits. Loan-to-deposit ratio stood at a comfortable 75% in 1Q11. Total CAR remained strong at 18.4% thanks to the rights issue in Dec-10.

Recommendation
Maintain Buy and Rp4,300 TP. Our target price is based on the Gordon Growth Model with the following assumptions: 18% targeted ROE, 13% long term growth and 15.3% cost of equity. It is equivalent to 2.2x FY11 BV and 15.5x FY11 EPS. We see BBNI as
a good turnaround story for 2012. BBNI will continue to improve its asset quality in 2011 for a cleaner platform for growth in 2012.

United Tractors: A good start for the year (Buy; Rp23,250; TP Rp27,000; UNTR IJ) - DBS Vickers

At a Glance
• 1Q11 results were inline with estimates
• Strong Komatsu sales lifted earnings
• Maintain Buy, TP lowered to Rp27,000 (from
Rp27,200)as we adjusted FY11/12 earnings by 1-2%.

Comment on Results
United Tractors (UT) 1Q11 net profit grew 43% yoy to Rp1.3tn, inline with our and consensus estimates (25% of our FY11F of Rp5.2tn). Revenue increased by 45% yoy to Rp12.6tn led by strong 83% yoy growth in revenue from construction machinery
(Komatsu) while Pama grew by only 8% yoy. However, gross margin fell to 17.6% (from 18.6% in 4Q10) on the back of lower contribution from after sales services, higher production costs at Pama due to heavy rainfall and stronger rupiah. We lowered our
FY11-12F net profit by 1-2% after imputing lower margin at Pama and Komatsu. Komatsu contributed 54% of 1Q11 revenue while Pama 35% and coal mining 11%.
Looking ahead, we expect slower sales volume for Komatsu due to potential supply disruptions in Japan while Pama’s production should accelerate from 2Q onwards due to better weather conditions.

Recommendation
We maintain our Buy call, DCF-based (WACC12%, terminal growth 3%) TP lowered to Rp27,000 (from Rp27,200) to reflect the earnings revision. The stock is currently trading at attractive 15x FY11F PE supported by 20% annual earnings growth between
FY10-12F.

AALI Robust 1Q11 HOLD - Samuel

Highlights:
• AALI reported net earnings of Rp682 bn in 1Q11, rose by 140% YoY. Top line surged
69.2% YoY to Rp2,764 bn.
• Margin expanded, with gross and operating margin rose to 38.9% (from 34.3%) and
33.2% (from 26.7%), respectively

Comments:
• Overall, 1Q11 results were inline consensus estimates. Revenue and net profit represents 28.2% and 28.7%, respectively of our FY11 forecast. The excellent results were largely driven by the surge in CPO prices and stronger than expected CPO sales volume.
• CPO sales volume grew by 27.3% YoY to 284,249 ton or 25% of our target. ASP was
Rp8,278/kg or 26.5% higher than last period of Rp6,544/kg. Higher sales volume was due to higher CPO production of 275,099 mn ton (+25.7%) and FFB harvested of 1.0 mn ton (+20.6% YoY).
• AALI still in net cash position of Rp1,979 bn or equivalent Rp1,257/share, supported by its strong cash flow. As of March 2011, cash flow provided by operating activities amounting to Rp1,104 bn, or 92% higher than last period.
• CPO production in 2Q11 should be higher than 1Q11, unless bad weather condition. Hence we maintain our CPO production target of 1.2mn ton. On the other hand, CPO price is expected to remain favorable due to soaring oil price and tight supply.
• According to Oil World, world CPO production increased by 1% to 45 mn ton in FY10. This year, CPO production is expected to grow slightly by around 1% as supply remains tight.

Action & Recommendation:
• No changes in our forecast. We maintain HOLD recommendation on AALI with price target Rp24,500/share. Our target price for AALI is based on 16.0x PER’11. Maintain HOLD

Vallar PLC (“Vallar” or the “Company”) Interim Management Statement and Production Report for Q1 2011 and Transaction Update

Vallar PLC (“Vallar” or the “Company”)

28 April 2011
For Immediate Release

Interim Management Statement and Production Report for Q1 2011 and Transaction Update

Vallar today issues its Interim Management Statement for the period from 1 January 2011 to the current date and its Production Report for the first quarter ended 31 March 2011 together with a Transaction Update.

Highlights for the 3 months ended 31 March 2011
• Vallar owns a 75 per cent stake in subsidiary PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (“Berau”) and a 25 per cent stake in associate PT Bumi Resources Tbk (“Bumi”)
• Berau sales for the first quarter of 2011 increased 53 per cent as compared with the first quarter of 2010
• As a result of strong global coal prices, Berau, KPC and Arutmin sales (on an attributable proportional basis) for the first quarter 2011, increased 37 per cent as compared with the first quarter of 2010

Production update
• Berau is a holding company that owns 90 per cent of PT Berau Coal (“Berau Coal”). In the first quarter of 2011 Berau Coal produced 4.1 million tonnes of coal, an increase of 9 per cent from the first quarter of 2010. Overburden removal was up 33.3 per cent on the first quarter of 2010.
• Bumi is a holding company that owns 65 per cent of PT Kaltim Prima Coal (Indonesia) (“KPC”) and 70 per cent of PT Arutmin Indonesia (“Arutmin”).
• In the first quarter of 2011 KPC produced 8.2 million tonnes of coal, a decrease of 9.2 per cent from the first quarter of 2010. Overburden removal was up 1.0 per cent on the first quarter of 2010, but production and overburden volumes were below plan due to higher than anticipated rainfall.
• In the first quarter of 2011 Arutmin produced 6.0 million tonnes of coal, a small decrease of 0.5 per cent from the first quarter of 2010. Overburden removal was up 37 per cent on the first quarter of 2010, but production was marginally below plan due to higher than anticipated rainfall.

Development and Expansion
• PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (“BRM”) continues to work to develop its properties in Indonesia and West Africa as outlined in its initial public offering in 2010.
• Berau Coal expansion plan to achieve 30 million tonnes annual production in 2014 is on schedule.
• KPC expansion plan to achieve 70 million tonnes annual production in 2014 is on schedule.
• Arutmin’s plan to achieve a total production of approximately 23.0 million tonnes in 2011 is on schedule, and is currently evaluating tenders for further expansion in production capacity.

Outlook for the Full Year 2011
• Increase in production expected in 2011:
o Berau Coal is currently expecting to produce 20.4 million tonnes in 2011 (compared with 17.4 million tonnes in 2010).
o KPC and Arutmin are currently expecting to produce 66.0 million tonnes
(compared with 60.4 million tonnes in 2010).
• Realised prices for the full year are expected to be ahead of those achieved in 2010:
o Berau Coal has achieved an average selling price per tonne in the first quarter of $74.3 (compared with an average selling price per tonne of $56.4 in the first quarter of 2010)
o KPC has achieved an average selling price per tonne in the first quarter of
$92.8 (compared with an average selling price per tonne of $65.4 in the first
quarter of 2010)
o Arutmin has achieved an average selling price per tonne in the first quarter of
$77.1 (compared with an average selling price per tonne of $58.6 in the first
quarter of 2010)

Vallar is expecting to announce its half-yearly results for the period from 1 January to 30 June 2010 on 17 August 2011.

Transaction update
On 24 February, Vallar published a prospectus in connection with the previously announced acquisition of a 75 per cent holding in PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (“Berau”) and a 25 per cent holding PT Bumi Resources Tbk (“Bumi”).

On 4 March Vallar announced the closing of the Bumi transaction and the assumption of control of Berau and on 8 April we announced the closing of the Berau transaction.

On 10 March 2011, Vallar posted a circular to its shareholders in connection with a scheme of arrangement of the Company (the “Scheme”) for the purpose of introducing a new UK-incorporated company, Bumi plc, as the parent company of the Vallar group. The Scheme was approved by Vallar shareholders on 7 April 2011.

Before the Scheme can become effective, Bumi plc must publish a prospectus (the “Prospectus”) in connection with the admission of its voting ordinary share capital to the premium listing segment of the Official List of the Financial Services Authority and to trading on London Stock Exchange plc’s main market for listed securities (“Admission”).


The Prospectus was expected to be published on or around 28 April 2011 with the Scheme becoming effective and Admission occurring on 10 May 2011. In the course of the ongoing IFRS accounting work being undertaken by Vallar in connection with the preparation of the Prospectus, a review is being undertaken of the accounting treatment of exploration and development costs incurred in 2007 and 2008 in relation to assets now owned by BRM. This review is ongoing.

Vallar does not consider that the resolution of this matter is likely to have any bearing on the commercial value attributed to the assets and is confident about the development potential of those assets. In accordance with ndonesian reporting obligations, BRM and Bumi published their audited financial results for the year ended 31 December 2010 (with comparative figures for the year ended 31 December 2009) on 31 March 2011. This financial information has been prepared in accordance with the generally accepted accounting principles in Indonesia.

In light of the above, Vallar has decided to delay publication of the Prospectus and, accordingly, the effective date for the Scheme. As a result, the court hearing to sanction the Scheme and to confirm the Company’s reduction of capital will not now take place on 6 May 2011 and is expected to be rescheduled for a later date. A further announcement will be made in due course.

Commenting on the announcement, Indra Bakrie, Chairman of Vallar said:
"Despite higher than anticipated rainfall in the first quarter, we remain confident on the trading outlook for the rest of the year. Average selling prices remain high relative to 2010, and we expect operating profit margins to increase year on year, despite higher fuel costs. We have made significant progress in integrating our activities under Vallar, and look forward to working towards a Premium Listing in due course."

Nat Rothschild, Co-Chairman of Vallar added:
“It remains our intention to greatly increase transparency and levels of governance across the group. With these encouraging results, we are more than ever convinced of the value and potential of Bumi and Berau.”

BUMI Coal Production

BPS: April Bisa Deflasi 0,3 Persen - Vivanews

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) memprediksi terjadi deflasi selama April 2011. Deflasi akan dikontribusi dari penurunan harga bahan-bahan kebutuhan pokok seperti cabai.

Kepala BPS, Rusman Heriawan, menjelaskan, tingginya harga emas saat ini memang memberikan pengaruh pada inflasi sebesar dua persen. "Ada sumbangan inflasi dari konsumsi emas perhiasan," kata Rusman di sela Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional di Hotel Bidakara, Jakarta, Kamis, 28 April 2011.

Rusman mengatakan, emas perhiasan dimasukkan dalam penghitungan inflasi. "Karena dibeli untuk dipakai. Kalau emas batangan tidak," ujarnya.

Meski dipengaruhi inflasi pada emas perhiasan, selama April, Rusman masih memperkirakan terjadi deflasi sebesar 0,3 persen. "Kalau kemarin (Maret) kan 0,32 persen. April, kalau nggak 0,3 persen, ya 0,2 persen," tuturnya. BPS akan mengumumkan inflasi bulanan April pada 2 Mei.

Pada Maret 2011, deflasi tercatat sebesar 0,32 persen. Pencapaian itu merupakan yang tertinggi untuk tingkat deflasi selama 3 tahun terakhir.

Dengan pencapaian deflasi pada Maret 2011, BPS mencatat inflasi kumulatif Januari-Maret 2011 sebesar 0,7 persen. Sementara itu, inflasi year on year selama periode tersebut mencapai 6,65 persen.

Unilever Laporkan Peningkatan Penjualan - Antara

Den Haag (ANTARA News) - Raksasa makanan dan kosmetika Inggris-Belanda Unilever, Kamis melaporkan, penjualannya melebihi 10 miliar euro untuk triwulan pertama 2011, didukung oleh pertumbuhan volume dan harga penjualan yang lebih tinggi.

Total penjualan 10,86 miliar euro (15,73 miliar dolar AS) mencerminkan peningkatan tujuh persen, perusahaan itu mengatakan dalam sebuah pernyataan.

Itu sedikit lebih rendah dari perkiraan oleh para analis yang disurvei oleh Dow Jones Newswires, yang memperkirakan penjualan 10,96 miliar euro, demikian AFP melaporkan. (A026/K004)

Borneo 1Q net income jumps 4,027% - Insider Stories

Indonesia's coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi Tbk (BORN) today reported a 4,027.03% jump in net income at end of March this year as a result of operating revenue increase.
Borneo posted Rp425.91 billion net income or Rp24 per share in 1Q 2011 from Rp10.32 billion or Rp8 per share in 1Q 2010, said Borneo in a financial statement filed to Indonesia Stock Exchange today.

Operating profit rose 204.16% to Rp533.91 billion from Rp175.45 billion. The company's gross profit surged 171.62% to Rp691.39 billion from Rp254.54 billion.
Operating revenue soared 123.77% to Rp1.20 trillion from Rp537.29 billion. Borneo obtained operating revenue from coal sales to stellar global commodities agency Glencore International AG.

The largest contributor for cost of goods revenue was overburden and coal processing of Rp304.37 billion and royalty of Rp149.51 billion.
PT Republik Energi & Metal controls 75% shareholding in Borneo Energi, PT Muara Kencana Abadi owns 0.0001%, and public shareholders hold 24.99%.
Republik Energi is owned by Indonesian businessmen Samin Tan and Suryadinata Sumantri, former partner at accounting giant Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu (DTT).

Indonesia’s First-Quarter Coal Output, Exports Fall on Rains - Reuters

Indonesia’s first-quarter coal production was below target after rains disrupted mining, said Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association.

Output rose to 32.43 million metric tons in March from 27.15 million in February and 29.54 million in January, Kamandanu said in an interview at the Coal Upgrading & Conversion conference in Singapore today. The average for the quarter at 29.7 million tons a month compares with 30 million tons a month a year earlier. The monthly target this year was about 30 million tons.

“Production was unchanged because of a very wet season,” Kamandanu said. “We hope to see a real dry season this year as most of last year was wet.”

Indonesia’s coal production may rise to between 335 million and 370 million tons this year, Kamandanu said at the conference. Output climbed to 325 million tons in 2010 from 283 million in 2009, he said.

Exports of the fuel fell 5.9 percent to 68.8 million tons in the first quarter from 73.1 million a year earlier because of a delay in issuing trading permits by the government earlier this year, according to calculations based on Kamandanu’s data.
Overseas sales rose to 25.8 million in March from 20.3 million in February.

China's imports of coal Q1 2011 - ICAP Shipping

China's coal imports in the first quarter were some 27% down on a year ago at 32.3 Mt (2010: 44.4 Mt). Part of the reason for the decline has been due to extra availability within

the country as it produced some 792 Mt in the quarter - up 8.3% on Q4 2010. Shipments down the long coast line from the north have increased by 25% this year and this had directly impacted import requirements. The high price of imported coal has also put pressure on imports with steam coal imports this March at $107/t as compared to $85/t in the same month a year ago. By coal type imports this year have fallen as follows: anthracite -10.5%, coking -3.5% and steam coal -40.3%.

Astra International 1Q net income up 41% - Insider Stories

Indonesia's largest auto maker PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) reports a 41.62% increase in net profit in the first quarter of this year as net revenue rose.
Astra posted Rp5.07 trillion in net profit or Rp1,063 per share in 1Q 2011 from Rp3.58 trillion or Rp744 per share. Operating profit increased 34% to Rp4.34 trillion from Rp3.25 trillion.

Astra booked Rp38.69 trillion net revenue, reflecting a 30% growth compared to Rp29.69 trillion. "Favourable economic situation, stable inflation rate, and higher commodities prices underpinned Astra Group' performance," said Astra President
Director Prijono Sugiarto in a statement obtained today.

Contribution of otomotive division to Astra's consolidated net income rose 28% to Rp2.1 trillion. Astra Group sold more cars with 27% growth in 1Q 2010 to 125,000 units, counting 56% national market share, a slight declined from 57% a year ago.
The financial division contributed Rp797 billion, a 25% increase, to Astra's net income. Heavy equipment and mining business contributed Rp785 billion, representing a 43% growth. Agribusiness made net income of Rp521 billion to the Astra Group.
Infrastructure and logistic and information technologies contributed Rp221 billion and Rp17 billion.

Astra International is a 50.11% owned by Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd, President Commissioner Budi Setiadharma holds 0.02%, Commissioner Anthony John Liddell Nightingale owns 0.02%, and public holders own 49.85%.

Laba BTN naik 30,31% - Kontan

PT Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) mencatat pertumbuhan laba 30,31% pada triwulan I 2011 menjadi Rp 245 miliar dibandingkan periode yang sama di 2010 yang mencapai Rp 188 miliar. Peningkatan laba ini ditopang oleh pertumbuhan kredit mencapai 23,78% menjadi Rp 53,39 triliun dibandingkan tahun 2010 yang mencapai Rp 43,13 triliun.

"Laba kita tumbuh seiring dengan ekspansi kredit kita yang naik," kata Direktur Utama BTN Iqbal Latanro, Kamis (28/4).

Sementara dari pengumpulan dana pihak ketiga (DPK) per 31 Maret 2011, tumbuh 27,86 menjadi Rp 48,39 triliun dari Rp37,85 triliun dibandingkan sebelumnya.

Berdasarkan kinerja perseroan per 31 Maret 2011, dari sisi aset BTN mencatatkan pertumbuhan sebesar 25,08% menjadi Rp 70,24 triliun bila dibandingkan dengan 31 Maret 2010 sebesar Rp 56,16 triliun. Sedangkan dari rasio-rasio keuangan BTN selama triwulan pertama 2011 tercatat rasio kecukupan modal (CAR) sebesar 17,13%, tingkat kredit bermasalah (NPL) gross sebesar 4,04%, serta margin bunga bersih (NIM) 5,47%

Rencana Go Private, BEI Suspensi ALFA - TopSaham

PT Bursa Efek Indonesia menetapkan penghentian perdagangan sementara (suspensi) atas saham PT Alfa Retailindo Tbk (ALFA) di seluruh pasar mulai sesi I, Kamis (28/4).

"BEI lakukan suspensi sebab ALFA terkait rencana go private," ujar Kepala Divisi Penilaian Perusahaan Sektor Jasa, Umi Kulsum, dalam keterbukaan informasi BEI, Kamis (28/4).

Saat ini, bursa tengah meminta penjelasan perseroan soal rencana go private tersebut. Pemegang saham ALFA mayoritas dikendalikan PT Carrefour Indonesia sekitar 99,89%, sisanya 0,11% dimiliki publik.

Bhakti Investama bagi dividen Rp59,7 miliar - Bisnis Indonesia

PT Bhakti Investama Tbk membagikan dividen sebesar Rp2 per lembar saham atau setara dengan Rp59,7 miliar dari laba bersih yang diperoleh pada akhir tahun lalu sebesar Rp258 miliar.
Laba bersih tahun lalu meningkat signifikan sebesar 638% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya di mana perusahaan membukukan kerugian sebesar Rp48 miliar.

“Dividen kami naik 100% dari tahun sebelumnya karena pada 2009 kami bukukan kerugian,” kata Direktur Utama Bhakti Investama Hary Tanoesoedibjo usai rapat umum pemegang saham tahunan , malam ini.

Namun Hary belum dapat menungkapkan jadwal pembagian dividen tersebut mengingat masih dalam proses. Dalam RUPST tersebut juga disetujui pengangkatan Wandhy Wira Riady sebagai direktur perseroan yang tidak terafiliasi.

Dalam rapat tersebut juga disetujui rencana perseroan untuk divestasi aset, investasi pada proyek-proyek baru, dan penambahan modal perseroan kepada anak usaha.

Bhakti Investama ialah induk usaha dari empat lini bisnis. Dua di antara lini bisnis itu yakni PT Global Mediacom dengan bendera MNC media dan PT Bhakti Capital Indonesia Tbk yang membawahi anak usaha bidang jasa keuangan.

Bhakti divestasi 20% saham MNC Vision - Bisnis Indonesia

PT Bhakti Investama Tbk berkomitmen melepas sebagian dari 20% kepemilikan saham di PT MNC Sky Vision atau setara nilainya dengan US$64 juta guna mengambil keuntungan dari transaksi tersebut.
Langkah divestasi tersebut akan ditempuh perseroan jika MNC Sky Vision, perusahaan televisi satellit berbayar itu akan melepas saham perdana (initial public offering/IPO) yang diharapkan terealisasi pada semester II/2011.

Direktur Utama Bhakti Investama Hary Tanoesoedibjo mengatakakan keputusan divestasi tersebut sudah mendapat persetujuan dari rapat umum pemegang saham tahunan (RUPST) dan rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB).

“Izin divestasi MNC Sky jika perusahaan ini go public, ini sudah disetujui dalam waktu dekat ini, mudah-mudahan bisa semester kedua tahun ini. Kami [Bhakti Investama] punya 20% di perusahaan ini,” katanya dalam konferensi pers di Jakarta, malam ini.

Saat ini, saham MNC Sky digengang oleh Bhakti Investama sebesar 20%, sementara 75% dimiliki oleh anak usaha Bhakti Investama di bidang media yakni PT Global Mediacom Tbk.

Global Mediacom membawahi anak usaha media yakni PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk, MNC Sky Vision, dan PT Infokom Elektrindo. Namun Hary menegaskan perseroan tidak akan melepas kepemilikan 75% saham MNC Sky melalui Global Mediacom mengingat porsi tersebut begitu strategis dan berkontribusi kepada perusahaan.

“Secara langsung kami lepas sebagian dari 20% kami tidak bisa bilang sebagian ini 10% belum tentu. Nah yang kepemilikan tidak langsung 75% itu tidak akan kami lepas,” katanya.

Dalam kesempatan tersebut perseroan membagikan dividen sebesar Rp2 per lembar saham atau setara dengan Rp59,7 miliar dari laba bersih yang diperoleh pada akhir tahun lalu sebesar Rp258 miliar.

Laba bersih tahun lalu meningkat signifikan sebesar 638% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya di mana perusahaan membukukan kerugian sebesar Rp48 miliar. Namun Hary belum dapat menungkapkan jadwal pembagian dividen tersebut mengingat masih dalam proses selanjutnya.

Dalam kesempatan tersebut, anak usaha Bhakti Investama yakni PT Bhakti Capital Indonesia Tbk juga menggelar RUPST dan RUPLB. Direktur Bhakti Capital Purnadi Hardjono mengatakan rapat juga menyetujui penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) setinggi-tingginya 10% dari modal disetor masing-masing dengan nominal Rp100.

BW Plantation 1Q profit rises 68.15% - Insider Stories

PT BW Plantation Tbk (BWPT), an Indonesian oil palm plantation company that is controlled by Widodo family, posted a 68.15% increase in net profit to Rp54.11 billion in first quarter 2011 compared to Rp32.20 billion in same period last year.

The company’s financial statement as of March 31, 2011, shows the increased profit was contributed by revenue that reached 55.8% higher to Rp172.54 billion compared to Rp110.76 billion at same period last year.
The company’s gross profit significantly increased 86.6% to Rp124.34 billion in first quarter 2011 compared to same period in 2010 at Rp66.64 billion.
Dividend

The company will distribute dividend at Rp9 per share for book year of 2010 totaled Rp36.54 billion or 10% of the total net profit in 2010 at Rp243.6 billion.
The dividend payout ratio has been approved by the shareholders in the annual general meeting of shareholders held today.

About Rp203.3 billion will be put as retained earnings while the remaining of Rp3.8 billion for reserves, BW Plantation Corporate Secretary Kelik irwantono said.
“The payment time is still being arranged but clearly it will be conducted this year,” he said after the annual meeting.

Delta Djakarta Siap Bagi Dividen Rp 10.500 per Saham - TopSaham

PT Delta Djakarta Tbk (DLTA) membagikan dividen Rp 10.500 per lembar saham untuk tahun buku 2010, atau setara dengan Rp 168,1 miliar. Pemerintah Daerah (Pemda) DKI Jakarta sebagai salah satu pemegang saham perseroan mendapat 'setoran' Rp 44,21 miliar.



Produsen Anker Bir ini menyebutkan total dividen yang dibagikan kepada pemegang saham Rp 168,1 miliar. Ini setara dengan 120% dari total laba bersih 2010 yang sebesar Rp139,6 miliar. Sisa dana diambil dari saldo laba ditahan tahun sebelumnya.

Direktur Marketing DLTA Ronny Titiheruw usai Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham (RUPS) tahunan perseroan di Hotel Mandarin, Jakarta, Kamis (28/4) mengatakan, saham DLTA dimiliki tiga pihak, di mana San Miguel Malaysia menjadi pemilik mayoritas, 58,3% atau setara 9.341.223 lembar. Publik memiliki 15,4% saham atau 2.467.944 lembar. Sisanya milik Pemda DKI Jakarta, dengan porsi 26,3%.

Dengan porsi tersebut, Pemda akan mendapat dana segar Rp 44,21 miliar. Seluruh dividen kan dibagikan pada Juni 2011.

Hingga Desember 2010, posisi saldo laba ditahan DLTA mencapai Rp 542,64 miliar dengan umlah saham beredar perseroan ada sebanyak 16 juta saham.

Harum Energy 1Q profit surges 142% - Insider Stories

Coal miner PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM), which is owned by Indonesian tycoon Kiki Barki, reported a 142.43% surge in net profit for the period of March 2011 as a result of higher revenue.
Harum posted Rp377.34 billion net profit or Rp114.46 per share in 1Q 2011 from Rp155.65 billion or Rp53.63 per share.

Operating profit soared 206.94% to Rp502.31 billion from Rp163.65 billion, while gross profit rose 156.08% to Rp628.90 billion from Rp245.59 billion.
Revenue was Rp1.51 trillion, reflecting a 69.26% increase from Rp894.66 billion. "1Q11 net profit accounted for 19.0% ours and 20.2% consensus relatively inline with expectation, considering the seasonality in which 1Q usually account for 16%-20% of full year result. Last year 1Q10 net profit accounted for 16.3% FY10 net profit," said a note distributed by Mandiri Sekuritas.
Margins jump

Gross margin and operating margin increased significantly to 41.5% and 33.2% respectively, mainly driven by higher selling price at US$88.4 (+35.8% yoy, +7.5% qoq) near to our FY11F ASP of US$90.5/ton.
HRUM booked attractive ASP compare to peers, suggesting better pricing strategy and higher exposure to spot market.

Combined 1Q11 coal production from its unit PT Mahakam Sumber Jaya (MSJ) (1.6 million tons) and Santan Batubara (0.4 million tons) reached 2 million tons (+14.9.% yoy, - 7.8% qoq), which represent 19% FY11 target.
This is inline considering seasonality and Tambang Batubara Harum mine that is expected to commence production of 0.5 million tons in 4Q11. "Currently we have buy rating on the stock. HRUM is traded at 13.2x adjusted PER11F."

Anak Usaha BHIT Produksi Batubara 400 Rb Ton/Bulan - Inilah.com

PT Bhakti Coal Resources, anak usaha PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) menargetkan produksi batubara dari Sumatera Selatan dan Kalimantan Timur sebesar 400 ribu ton per bulan pada akhir tahun 2011.

Hal itu disampaikan Direktur PT Bhakti Coal Resources, Budiono, saat paparan publik Kamis (28/4). "Akhir tahun produksi dari Sumatera Selatan sebesar 200 ribu ton dan Kalimantan Timur sebesar 200 ribu ton pada akhir tahun," tutur Budiono.

Lebih lanjut ia mengatakan, produksi batu bara dari Sumatera Selatan memiliki kalori rendah sebesar 4.800-5.000. Saat ini, produksi batu bara dari Sumatera Selatan sebesar 50 ribu-60 ribu ton per bulan. Penjualan batu bara ini untuk ekspor ke India dan domestik.

Menurut Budiono, penjualan batu bara ke India tidak mengalami masalah karena India membutuhkan kalori batu bara rendah. "Akhir tahun ini ekspor sebesar 200 ribu ke luar negeri. Untuk menggenjot produksi memang infrastruktur harus selesai," kata Budiono.

Sedangkan produksi batu bara dari Kalimantan Timur, Budiono mengakui, kalori batu bara di Kalimantan relatif lebih baik. Penjualan batu bara dari Kalimantan Timur diekspor ke China. Saat ini produksi batu bara dari Kalimantan Timur sebesar 40 ribu-50 ribu ton per bulan.

Budiono mengharapkan, produksi batu bara bulan depan mencapai 100 ribu ton. PT Bhakti Coal Resources belum dapat berkontribusi ke perseroan pada 2011.

MAIN Bagi Dividen Rp185 /Saham - TopSaham

Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham (RUPS) PT Malindo Feedmill Tbk (MAIN) menyetujui pembagian dividen 2010 sebesar Rp185 per saham atau sebesar 35% dari laba bersih 2010 perseroan yang tercatat senilai Rp179,96 miliar.

Sekretaris Perusahaan MAIN, Rudi Hartono, mengatakan perseroan telah membagikan dividen interim sebesar Rp70 per saham pada Desember 2010 lalu.

“Sementara sisanya sebagai dividen tunai senilai Rp115 per saham akan dibagikan dengan waktu yang akan ditentukan perseroan,” ungkapnya pada paparan publik perseroan di Jakarta, Kamis (29/4).

Mengenai kinerja 2010, laba bersih MAIN tercatat meningkat sebesar 137% menjadi Rp179,96 dari Rp75,97 miliar pada 2009. Kenaikan laba didukung oleh peningkatan penjualan tahun lalu sebesar 9% menjadi Rp2,04 triliun, dari Rp1,87 triliun pada 2009.

Marjin kotor perseroan pada tahun tersebut juga meningkat menjadi 19,1% dari 12,4% pada tahun sebelumnya, sedangkan marjin laba bersih meningkat menjadi 8,8%, dari 4,1% pada tahun sebelumnya.

Kamis, 28 April 2011

PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk ROE Below 20%, But With Better NPL - AAA

Post rights, ROE in 2011 and beyond would be hard to reach 20% in our view, as net profit growth would resume to normal as opposed to 50%-100% during FY09-FY10. Furthermore, BBNI will focus on lowering NPL to around 2.9% and will adopt a strategy in selective lending.

± 1Q11 Net Profit Rp1.3 tn, Up 22% YoY
In 1Q11, BBNI booked net profit Rp1.3 trillion, or grew 22% yoy contributed by 1) Declining operating expense by 8% yoy, which is then reflected in better cost-to-income ratio to 44.5% from 50.4%. 2) Lower provisioning by 5% yoy on higher assets quality, as NPL tamed down to 4.1% from 4.6%. On the upper line, net interest income growth was flat, as the bank cut out loan yield from 12.1% to 10.4%. NIM slightly declined to 5.7% from 5.8%. Going forward, we expect loan yield to be at an average of 10.2% on better CASA funding, which is positive for loan growth.

± Healthy Loan Growth Would Be Primary Focus
CASA portion increased to 61% from 54%. Overall funding only expanded by 8% yoy as savings and time deposits slid by 6% and 8% respectively which was due to seasonality, like what happened in 1Q10 when third party deposits only grew 6% yoy. Nevertheless, with capital injection from rights issue, in 1Q11 loan increased moderately at 15% yoy, translating into LDR at 73% from 67% in previous year. Up to the end of 2011, BBNI targeted loan growth of 15%-20%. The bank currently focuses on minimizing NPL through more selective lending. On this basis, we see that NPL could go lower to around 2.9% as opposed to 3.4% in FY10.

± Valuation, BUY – New TP Rp4,700
Post-rights, the bank’s share price is currently traded at only at 2.0x, which was mostly driven by lower ROE (adjusted). Going forward ROE would be hard to reach 20%. Furthermore, to sustain CAR, we anticipated dividend payout would be around 20%. This higher retention ratio will result in higher book value. Overall, those lead to higher TP of Rp4,700 from Rp4,400 previously. Our TP reflects 2.3x PBV which is at the same level with its +1 Std.

PGN Alert : KTA from recent meet; still lacking near-term catalyst

Although we reiterate our view that the stock lacks any clear positive catalysts near term, we continue to like its longer term potential given encouraging progress of the LNG receiving terminal project to help address supply concerns longer term.

We see moderate earnings risks near term due to lingering uncertainties surrounding ramp-up of existing contracts & delays in signing of new contracts. Indeed, the regulators have been less supportive of PGAS when allocating gas recently, instead favoring allocations to oil co's for oil lifting, PLN, fertilizer co's, and even local govt co's (eg. recent dispute on Ketapang supply). PGAS is trying to address this, inc by lobbying the MoF, industrial customers and Industrial Ministry for support, also increasing its focus on upstream investments to secure off-take. KTA summary below:

Current supply (Conoco): Chevron to get 20mmscfd from Jambi Merang by 2H’11; in exchange, Conoco to return the same amt to PGAS (vs shortfall of abt 80 mmscfd). An additional 65mmscfd from the field is originally committed to PLN’s power plant in South Sumatra, but the plant may not be ready in time. This could be a temporary supply opportunity for PGAS, However, no agreements have been signed so far.

Risk on new supply contract: Our 2012F foreast factors in a 50mmscfd supply from Bukit Tua (Ketapang) field in E. Java, operated by PETRONAS. However, local government entity (Petrogas) is recently trying to intercept a Heads of Agreement (HoA) already in place between PGAS & PETRONAS. BP Migas (upstream regulator) doesn’t appear to be siding with PGAS either. PGAS believes the local govt entity is unlikely to able to execute even if it wins the contract (eg. building the connecting pipelines etc); Given this, at worst PGAS may end up having to buy the gas from the local govt at a margin, but for now PGAS will continue to lobby to retain its HoA.

LNG project progress encouraging: Fabrication of FSRU (floating regas facility) for W. Java has already begun. PGAS is quite comfortable with the 150mmscfd volume commitment from Total/Inpex (Kalimantan) & believes project is on track to start ops by 2H2012.

Upstream investment: The newly formed Planning & Investments Division at the BoD reflects PGAS' increased focus on this. Primary criteria of target fields: a) credible operator(s), b) fields nearing/already at production stage.

Corporate Result Flash Bank Negara Indonesia - Bahana

1Q11 performance


§ BBNI reported growth of 22.0% y-y and 9.1% q-q in 1Q11 net profit to IDR1.25t, in line with expectations, accounting for 23% of our 2011 and market estimates.

§ 1Q11 performance was buoyed by net interest income (NII) and lower provisioning with gross NPL of 4.1% versus 4.3% in 4Q10. NII grew 8.7% q-q on 4Q10 strong loan growth of +8.2% q-q while 1Q11 loans grew 1.7% q-q, coming from corporate (+3.9% q-q) and consumer (+3.1% q-q) segments. This supported 1Q11 NIM at 5.7% vis-à-vis 5.8% in 4Q10.

§ On the funding front, 1Q11 third party funding contracted 2.9% q-q caused by lower time deposits (-7.7% q-q) while core funding edged up 0.3%. As a result, CASA ratio improved to 61% at end 1Q11 from 59% at end 2010 and LDR increased to 73.5% from 70.2% over the same period.

Outlook
We believe BBNI is set to report improved earnings in the subsequent quarters on the back of stronger loan growth and lower provisioning as a result of further improvement in its assets quality. With CAR of 18.4% and LDR of 73.5%, BBNI has greater flexibility to expand its loan portfolio. In 2011, we have conservatively assumed 2011 loan growth of 17%, before rising to 19% in 2012. For corporate loans, the bank targets 8 main industries, which include prioritizing infrastructure projects. On the consumer side, growth will stem from the mortgage and credit card segments.

Recommendation and valuation
We continue to like BBNI’s strong deposit franchise, which has paved the way for continued re-rating and ytd market outperformance (exhibit 4). As we use lower cost of equity on lower 10-year government risk free rate (-50bps to 7%), we raise our TP on BBNI to IDR5,000 (+4.2%), reflecting P/BV of 2.5x, still a substantial 29% discount to the industry’s average 3.5x P/BV. BUY.

MAPI Strong growth momentum in 1Q11: EBIT+56% and net profit +45% YoY by Jessica - CLSA

· MAPI registered strong sales growth in 1Q11. Sales grew by 21% YoY with SSG of 10%, beating our expectation of 17% YoY sales growth for 2011.

· Due to operating leverage, EBIT grew by 56% YoY, making up 15% of our forecasts and 16% of consensus forecasts.

· In the past, 1Q operating profit usually made up only 12-14% of total FY operating profit due to strong seasonality in the business, while 4Q usually made up 33-35% of total FY operating profit. Our forecasts seem conservative at this point if the growth momentum continues throughout the year.

· MAPI remains our top pick in the small cap consumer sector. MAPI is currently trading at 18.3x 11CL and 13.8x 12CL PE. On a PEG basis, MAPI is trading half of its aggregate peers at 0.4x PEG ratio.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) good 1Q11 results by Sarina Lesmina - CLSA

1Q11 profit was Rp1.29tn, up 42% QoQ, 43% YoY. This came at 26% of our FY11 forecast and 27% of consensus.
1Q11 revenue was higher than expectation, at 30% of our FY11 forecast, however GP margin was lower than expected
On Operational performance: results as expected as can be seen in tables below. Note that strip ratio for Pama had improved.
Short-term risk: Impact of components shortage for the heavy equipment business. Our 5,737 units target for the year might be too low now, especially if things recover in 4Q.
Maintain OPF on UT. Rights issue will go ex on 10 May, at Rp15,050/sh rights price.

Disruption (as expected) in domestic car production is happening due to components shortage by Sarina - CLSA

Mitsubishi’s sole distributor, Krama Yudha Tiga Berlian Motors expects car sales to drop 20% MoM in April due to a cut in production to 10,000 units per month from 13,000 per month normally. Number of shifts was cut to one from two. Mitsubishi said its local production in Indonesia needs 40% imported components, mainly from Japan.

· Toyota’s main dealer Auto 2000 also expects sales in April to drop 20% from March’s 26,000 units. Auto 2000 also stated that supply of cars have dropped 30%, and expects 2Q target to be hard to achieved.

· Honda’s car sales in April are expected to drop almost 50% due to a drop in components supply in April-May, hence production is cut to one shift. CBU supply from Japan for Honda CRV and Freed has decreased.

· Previously, Astra Daihatsu is reported to have cut production by 20% and expected to last until at least June. Toyota Motor Indonesia (TMMIN) has also cut production by 50%.

· Car manufacturers are not cutting the number of employees, believing this is a temporary issue.

· We have already forecasted a 10% YoY drop in car sales this year. If monthly domestic car sales in Indonesia drops 25% from current level, then we are looking at 56,250 units sold per month, from an average of 75,000 unit sold per month in 3M11. Assuming the same amount of sales until December, then we are looking at a total car sales of 675,049 units this year, which is a 11% YoY drop.

· Key thing is pent-up demand is building, and when things recover, we are going to see a swift recovery in car sales. The upside is if recovery is sooner than expected. For Astra, every 10% recovery in car sales volume translates into 3% impact to earnings. Car penetration is at a low 4%. For long term, Astra remains a compelling consumption story for Indonesia.

Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) slowly turning around - CLSA

Bret Ginesky is looking at the BNI’s 1Q results more closely. Solid results – NPL continued to decline and operating efficiency are improving. In addition personnel costs declined by almost 20% YoY. This is exactly what we like to see, slow but steady operational turnaround. And with ample capital raised last year, BBNI is well positioned for strong loan growth this year. We like Mandiri (BMRI) and Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) in this space.

· Net profit Rp1.25tn, up 22% YoY, 25.8% of our FY11 estimates. Normalized net profit is closer to Rp1.05tn (22% of our estimates) after taking out forex gains (Rp104bn) and recovery on written off loans (Rp326bn).

· Biggest driver of earnings was operating efficiency (down 7.6% YoY) as personnel expenses fell 18% YoY due to PSAK 24 compliance. CIR also improved by 590bps to 44.5% from 50.4% YoY.

· NPL’s keep improving to 4.1%, down by 20bps QoQ and 60bps YoY.

· Shares currently trade at 2.1x 11CL PBV, representing 28% discount to Indonesian peers.

· BNI remains our favourite turnaround story in Indonesia. Maintain our outperform rating.

PT TELKOM (TLKM): Share buy-back as trading support – Watch EGM May 19th! - Credit Suisse

We continue to reiterate Consolidation in Industry continue to benefit the Top-3 Incumbents and therefore we reiterate Overweight Indonesia Cellular. Given this Share buy-back plan, I personally recommend Trading Buy TLKM (@Rp7,550- 11.9x 2011F PER with 29% upside to DCF Rp9,750)! However, I continue to see TLKM ADR/Stock as a Short Candidate for Long-Short Strategy.

· Colin McCallum (Daily attached): PT Telkom has issued a circular to shareholders in advance of the 19 May 2011 AGM. The circular sets out the proposal for a fourth share buyback scheme. The scheme proposes the purchase of 416.7 mn shares (representing 2.07% of the current shares in issue) in the open market.

· We view the purchase of shares in PT Telkom, which we value at Rp9,750/share using DCF, as a very good use of the company’s strong balance sheet (and far preferable to overseas investment). Furthermore, the buyback is set to have a positive impact on the company’s EPS and ROE. On a pro-forma basis for FY10 (i.e. as if the buyback had occurred on 1 January 2010), it would have raised FY10 EPS by 1.0%, ROA by 0.3% and ROE by 1.8%.

· Confirmation of the capital management plans represents the delivery of the first catalyst we have been expecting for PT Telkom, and supports our OUTPERFORM rating on the name. We now await the evidence of an improved revenue performance from cellular subsidiary Telkomsel (not listed) as promotional tariffs are lifted.

UNITED TRACTORS (UNTR): 1Q volume strong & above heavy equipments - Credit Suisse

UNTR Rights Issue is 4 new shares for 33 old shares at Rp15,050/share. Ex-date will be on May 10th, Rights trading period will be on May 16th-30th. Standby Underwriter is the majority 59.50% ASII IJ. 1Q volume for Heavy Equipment distribution is above expectation 2,207 units (+81%YoY and 36% of 2011F), for Mining Contracting is in-line 19.2m tonnes coal production (+3% YoY and 22% of 2011F) & in-line 167.5m bcm overburden (+9% YoY and 23% of 2011F), and Coal Mining is in-line 0.8m tonnes (c+10% YoY and c20% of 2011F). I am recommending accumulate UNTR on weakness with timing during the Rights Trading period on May 16th-30th!

· UNTR’s Equipment sales volume in March jumped 63% YoY (+15% MoM) to a historical high of 789 units, bringing the first quarter figure to 2,207 units (+81% YoY), or accounted for 36% of our FY11E estimates. The mining contracting business also posted positive growth both on MoM and YoY basis. While the coal mining business grew 6% MoM (despite of being down 3% YoY) for the DEJ mine only. Note that the TTA mine has started its production and recorded 0.1mn t in March. Hence, total coal sales volume came in line with our expectations.

INDO TAMBANGRAYA (ITMG): In-line 1Q11 sales volume -15% YoY – reit Buy! - Credit Suisse

1Q EPS to be strong despite 1Q volume in-line but rather weak. EPS Sensitivities Analysis to US$10/bbl rise in oil coal price is -2.3%, 5% volume shortfall is -5.5%, and US$10/t rise in coal benchmark price is +8.7%. At Rp47,600/share, ITMG IJ is trading on 13.3x 2011F PER and implying 20% upside to end-2011F Target Price Rp57,000 (based on 16x 2011F PER), we reiterate BUY ITMG!

· Investor Daily newspaper: ITMG 1Q11 coal sales reached 5.2 mn tonnes (-14.7% YoY, 20.8% of our FY11E assumption) with the average selling price (ASP) of US$80/ tonne (+19.4% YoY). The company managed to produce 5.5 mn tonnes of coal in 1Q11 (22% of company’s target of 25 mn tonnes), ITMG Finance Director Edward Manurung said.

· Paworamon Suvarnatemee: Management expect 11mnt in 1H and the rest (14mnt) to be done in 2H with two new mines starting up then. Therefore, the company said it is in line w their mining plan. An unknown for the 1Q is actually the derivatives gain/loss.

ECONOMICS: Oil & Japan impacts, Upgrade IDR to Rp8,250 & FDI surged - Credit Suisse

Robert is forecasting 2011F-12F Real GDP 6.0-5.5%, GDP per capita US$3,558-3,988, year-end CPI 7.0-5.3%, year-end IDR8,250-8,100/US$, average IDR8,620-8,175/US$, and year-end BI rate 7.50-7.50% respectively. IDR Rp8,250 is POSITIVE to Domestic Sectors, such as Auto (ASII), Banks (BMRI, BBNI), Cements (SMGR), Consumer (GGRM, INDF, ICBP)!

· Robert Prior-Wandersforde (Focus Asia (Q2 2011) Report available on request): We assess the implications of first, the political crisis in North Africa and the Middle East, which has sent oil prices up 30%, and second the worst natural disaster in Japan for decades. In its 2011 budget, the government estimated that fuel subsidies would amount to 1.5% of GDP, based on an oil price assumption of just USD80/barrel. World Bank suggest that a USD10/barrel increase in the oil price adds 0.2 percentage points of GDP to Indonesia’s budget deficit. Indonesia’s budget deficit came in well below expectations at just 0.6% of GDP last year, giving the government plenty of room for fiscal maneuver. All in all, we expect the oil price effect on headline inflation to be smallest in Indonesia, Malaysia and India. March headline inflation eased to 6.7% from 6.8% in February, but core inflation moved up. Our economists expect inflation to average 7.5% this year and 75bps more of rate hikes by the end of 3Q 2011. We see the central bank of Indonesia raising rates at least another 75bps this year, before growth concerns force a pause.

· The impact of the earthquake and tsunami will be both on Japan itself and the rest of Asia, some negative growth effects and upward pressure on prices are inevitable in the next few months. Our analysis suggests that Singapore, Hong Kong and Thailand are likely to suffer the biggest hits, while commodity producers, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, will be least affected both in the short and longer term. Japan will need plenty of commodities for the re-building process.

· We are bullish with IDR. We expect BI to continue favouring FX appreciation over rate hikes.

· Indonesia recorded a record breaking year of inward Foreign Direct Investment in 2010 of USD12.7bn (equivalent to nearly 2% of GDP and the early signs for 2011 are encouraging. According to figures from the country’s Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) inward FDI rose 11.6% year-on-year in the first quarter. The breakdown of the numbers showed roughly one quarter of the investment went into mining, while, by country, Singapore accounted for by far the largest share (also around 25%).

Indonesia Banks 1Q previews: credit momentum to drive top line, but a watchful eye on margins - JP Morgan

The four major banks under our coverage are expected to declare results on April 28-29. Given recent trends, we believe that volume growth should be healthy across the board – perhaps led by BCA (JPM estimate 1QFY11E credit growth of 30% y/y). However, looking at system data for February we believe that there may be the risk of margin compression during the quarter. We estimate NIMs compressed c40bps q/q at Danamon but were generally stable elsewhere in the sector – which could be a source
of downside risk, if proven incorrect.

• BBCA: We forecast BBCA to have reported net profits of Rp 2.4 trn in 1Q, up 25% y/y but flat q/q. Profits should have been driven by healthy PPOP growth (10% y/y) and continued benign credit costs. The risk to the stock comes from valuation, which at 4.7x FY11E PBV leave little, if any, room for disappointment.

• BBRI: We forecast BBRI to have earned net profits of Rp3.25 trn in 1QFY11. However, given indications by management of profits of about Rp 4trn, this forecast is exposed to substantial upside risk. If results demonstrate that BBRI is able to generate a healthy level of growth from a higher base, and operating metrics remain strong – we believe that results could open up significant upside to the stock from both revisions and re-rating. It remains our top pick in the sector.

• BDMN: We estimate that BDMN grew loans at 28% y/y in 1Q, and forecast a 40% growth in profits y/y to just under Rp 1trn. Our estimates build in a 40 bps q/q contraction in margins – which we believe is already discounted in the stock price. BDMN has been a laggard over the last couple of months, and healthy results may provide an impetus to the stock to close gaps with its peers.

• BMRI: We project 1QFY11E net profits of Rp2.5 trn at BMRI. Key aspects to look for in the results would be for signs of acceleration in growth now that the bank is flush with capital, the outlook on margins and potential for policy–related upside on asset write downs.

United Tractors Overweight UNTR.JK, UNTR IJ 1Q Results: PAT as expected, mining contracting margins a setback - JP Morgan

• 1Q PAT Rp 1.32 trn - in line with JPM – probably positive relative to consensus: UNTR’s 1QFY11 PAT of Rp 1.32 trn was 2% below JPM estimates of Rp 1.35trn. Profits grew by 45/44% y/y/q/q and at 27% of consensus FY11E PAT, we believe will be well received by the street.

• Equipment ASP’s better than expected – Mining contracting margin recovery hopes belied: Equipment division sales were 8% higher than forecast on higher ASP’s, which could be deceptive since UNTR reports revenues net of interdivisional sales, but equipment volumes gross of sales to its mining contracting division. Gross Margins 40bps q/q. Equipment margins came down as expected to 21% (JPME 21.1%) on
lower services contribution. Mining contracting was slightly disappointing with 1QFY11E margins down 213bps q/q to 14.3% (JPME 16%) despite higher strip ratios. This remains an area of concern given a strong Rupiah. UNTR earned $19/T of own coal sales.

• Net Gearing at 17%, inventory decline to foreshadow slowing volumes? UNTR reported Net D/E of 16.7% at the end of 1Q. Capex during the quarter was Rp 1.13trn, predominantly on mining contracting even as new contracting subsidiary Multi Prima (a new investment thrust) only saw an increase in assets of Rp 197bn. Finished goods inventories declined by Rp 831bn during the quarter – perhaps pointing to slowing Komatsu deliveries in months to come.

• Price target Rp 25,000 (ex rights) remains OW: At 17.5x FY11E PE, we believe UNTR’s pedigree is well recognized in its stock price. However, current results could catalyze some near term upside, which is key to our maintaining an OW rating on the stock despite the overhang from its proposed rights issue. Noting better than expected Komatsu volumes, we identify a strong Rupiah as a key risk to our PT. If the Rupiah stabilized at Rp 8600, we see a 10% risk to our FY12E EPS.

Agung Podomoro Land Overweight APLN.JK, APLN IJ Alleviating the worries - firm 1Q11 earnings improvement - JP Morgan

• Positive 1Q11 should raise confidence in the stock. The company reported 1Q11 earnings of Rp148bn, up by 377% y/y. 1Q11 earnings are above our estimates and consensus (26% of ours and 28% of consensus). The firm 1Q11 earnings is a reversal from the 2H10 result. We saw improvements in all sections in gross margins (apartment, office, and rental) of 37% in 1Q11 compared to FY10’s 33%. Margin on
office sold was particularly strong, with 1Q11 gross margin of 42% higher than our expectation of 33%. We view that the company’s firm 1Q11 numbers should raise confidence in the company’s execution and recommend investors to buy post the result.

• Safe cushion: unrecognized sales + firm momentum on marketing sales. With the company’s firm 1Q11 marketing sales number of Rp1.1tr, we view the FY11 marketing sales target of Rp3tr as achievable. We estimate the company to have around Rp2.5tr of unrecognized sales as of 1Q11. In our estimate, Rp1.7tr of the unrecognized sales mainly comes from the company’s new projects; Greenbay Pluit, Green Permata, and Greenlake.

• Maintain OW, Dec-11 PT of Rp455. We are adjusting our FY11/12 earnings estimates for APLN by +1/-3% respectively after accounting for higher top-line and higher operating expenses. We maintain our OW, and slightly tweak our Dec-11 PT to Rp455 versus Rp470 previously on earnings adjustment and higher capex estimates. We think firm project deliveries and execution should raise confidence in the stock. Our Dec-
11 PT is based on a 15% discount to NAV (Rp8.1tr for existing projects and Rp2.2tr for potential new projects).

• Key risks: (1) Delay in execution or construction of projects, (2) Lack or slowdown of new projects.

Price target and valuation analysis
Our TP is based on 15% discount to total NAV of Rp11tr. Our Dec-11 NAV for existing projects (based on DCF, WACC 12.6% and TG of 0%) yielded Rp8.1tr. We add this
with potential NAV accretion of Rp2.8tr. Key risks: (1) Lack of launches of new projects as APLN's new projects are key for APLN's outperformance to its peers, (2) Delay on projects, (3) Lack of transparency on potential asset injections