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Rabu, 27 April 2011

Indonesia Banks Sector - Government may speed up its new haircut regulation - Credit Suisse

● Kontan (21 March 2011) stated that the government is willing to accelerate the completion of the Settlement of State’s Receivables law draft. Under the new law, the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) receivables will no longer be settled under the
State’s Receivable Management Committee (PUPN) and can be settled under corporation mechanism.
● We estimate the total size of written-off loans to be around 53% of the BMRI and BBNI FY11E book value and around 17% of the BBRI FY11E book value.
● If we assume 80% discount, with only 20% written back, the total size of the write back is equivalent to 11% of BMRI and BBNI FY11E book value and 3% of BBRI FY11E book value. The write back is also equivalent to 51% of the BMRI FY11E earnings, 75% of the BBNI FY11E earnings and 13% of BBRI FY11E earnings.
● We continue to prefer BMRI and BBNI as our two top picks for Indonesia. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on BMRI and BBNI. We maintain our target price of Rp8400 for BMRI and of Rp4300 for BBNI.

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