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Rabu, 27 April 2011

Indonesia Banks - Industry margins moving lower in 1Q: Micro franchises offer best value - JP Morgan

• Industry margins moving lower in 1QFY11: While markets have focused on healthy loan growth (25% y/y in early April according to BI), we have noted a resumption of the declining trend in margins recently. System net interest margins in February stood at 5.53%, down 20 bps from December levels. The risk is that lower margins offset some of the volume driven growth in FY11E.

• Micro franchises should be cushioned, and offer the best value: We expect most margin pressure in corporate loans, while micro franchises (fixed rate products) should be best insulated. This view is not reflected by stock markets currently. Figure 2 below scatters RoE vs PBV. We note that all the banks to the right of the trend line (offering better value) have significant micro banking businesses. Our top pick is BRI, where we think 1Q results could be a catalyst for further upside.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.15

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