Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 26 Maret 2011

DOID mendapatkan pinjaman sebesar USD 750 Juta dair CIC dan GIC - Britama

China Investment Corporation (CIC) dan Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) dikabarkan akan memberikan pinjaman senilai USD 750 juta kepada Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (Buma), anak usaha Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID). Buma akan menggunakan pinjaman tersebut untuk membayar (refinancing) utang sebesar USD 600 juta.

FLSmidth signs contract with Adaro Indonesia worth over $135 mln - Reuters

* Signs materials handling contract with PT Adaro Indonesia
* Says deal worth over $135 million

Danish engineering group FLSmidth (FLS.CO) said on Friday it had signed a coal mining equipment deal worth over $135 million with PT Adaro Indonesia.

The group said it would supply material handling equipment to PT Adaro Indonesia, a subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), to a coal mine in the Tanjung district.

"This material handling contract is the first in Indonesia and reflects a growing market in the region, particularly in the minerals sector where mining companies are expanding," FLSmidth Chief Executive Jorgen Huno Rasmussen said in the statement.

The contract comprises an out-of-pit crushing and conveying system, FLSmidth, a supplier of engineering services and equipment to the cement and minerals industries, said.
"Being the first of its kind in Indonesia, the project will act as a catalyst for other potential orders in the region," Rasmussen said.

Adaro aims to double coal production - The Jakarta Post

Coal producer PT Adaro Indonesia is planning to soon boost its production capacity to 80 million tons annually, almost double the 42.19 millions tons it produced throughout 2010.

The planned boost in production is intended to support the Indonesian government's policy placing the private company as among “national vital objects” in regard to energy production, Adaro general manager Priyadi said Friday.
“Our production is vital. [If we] halt our supply for just one week, Java and Bali will suffer from blackouts,” Priyadi said in Tabalong, South Kalimantan, as quoted by tempointeraktif.com.

“This year we're targeting to produce up to 48 millions tons,” he said.
Priyadi said more than 25 percent of the coal Adaro produced was aimed at the domestic market, most of which would be to support power plants in Java and Bali.
The three coal mines Adaro operates in South Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan contain combined total coal reserves of 5.7 billions tons, he said.

Semen Bosowa seeks Rp600 bio IPO - Insider Stories

One of Indonesian cement manufacturer PT Semen Bosowa, owned by Bosowa Group which is controlled by Indonesian businessman Aksa Mahmud, plans to enroll the stock market via initial public offering (IPO) in the fourth quarter of this year.
Semen Bosowa is seeking to raise at least Rp600 billion proceed from IPO. The manufacturer aims to establish new cement plants with capacity of 2 million-2.5 million tons annually.

Bosowa Group CEO Erin Aksa said the new factories will require a total investment of Rp3 trillion. "Besides IPO proceed, the project will be bankrolled by internally generated cash flow and bank loan facility," Aksa told Insider Stories.
The ground breaking of the plants is expected by end of this year and initiate commercially production in 2015 or 2016. At that time, capacity production of Semen Bosowa will be ramped up to 5 million tons per annum from current output of 2.5 million tons.

Akhir 2010, kewajiban HRUM turun 40% dan aktiva naik 52% - Kontan Online

JAKARTA. Pada akhir 2010, PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM) mencatat kenaikan total aktiva hingga 52%. Sementara, pada kewajiban perseroan turun sebesar 40%.

Direktur Utama HRUM Ray Gunara menyebut kenaikan aktiva sebesar Rp 1,181 triliun atau 52% menjadi Rp 3,470 triliun karena kenaikan pada beberapa akun aktiva.

Salah satunya, penambahan kas perseroan sebesar 76% menjadi Rp 1,030 triliun, karena penambahan dari hasil penawaran umum saham perseroan pada Oktober 2010. Piutang usaha bertambah 62%, dan persediaan naik 57% karena kenaikan aktivitas pertambangan perseroan.

Akun investasi saham meningkat hingga 110% terutama karena pencatatan bagian laba bersih PT Santan Batubara (SB), yang tahun sebelumnya masih nihil. Adapun, aset bertambah 63% karena penambahan armada kapal tunda dan tongkang yang dibeli anak usaha perseroan PT Layar Lintas Jaya di 2010.

Sementara, dari sisi total kewajiban turun Rp 604,981 miliar atau 40% menjadi Rp 925,284 miliar di 2010. Ini seiring pelunasan utang jangka pendek perseroan kepada Bank mandiri dan Bank CIMB Niaga.

Adapun, utang jangka panjang turun 77% karena pinjaman kepada Bank Permata sudah dilunasi. Sehingga, utang sindikasi perseroan tersisa Rp 44,832 miliar di akhir 2010.

Selain itu, akun utang pajak turun 68% karena penurunan pajak penghasilan badan anak usaha PT Mahakam Sumber Jaya.

Ray menyebut, perubahan-perubahan itu bagian dari kegiatan usaha perseroan. "Dan tidak berpengaruh negatif terhadap kinerja keuangan perseroan pada tahun berjalan," ujarnya, dalam keterbukaan informasi BEI.

Agus Marto Bebaskan Pemerintah Beli Saham Perusahaan Swasta - Detikfinance

Jakarta - Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo membebaskan Badan Investasi Pemerintah (PIP/Pusat Investasi Pemerintah) melakukan pembelian saham pada perusahaan swasta.

Hal ini ditetapkan dalam Peraturan Menteri Keuangan No.44/PMK.05/2011 tanggal 9 Maret 2011 tentang pelaksanaan investasi pemerintah.

"Aturan ini untuk memberikan kepastian investasi pemerintah bisa ke badan usaha atau jenis aktivitas yang lebih luas. Karena pada saat lalu tidak cukup terbuka alternatifnya. Jadi lebih luas. Apakah perusahaan publik atau non publik," tutur Agus saat ditemui di kantornya, Jalan Wahidin Raya, Jakarta, Jumat (25/3/2011).

Sebelumnya, PIP hanya bisa membeli saham yang diterbitkan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan terbuka saja.

Agus mengakui, aturan ini secara tidak langsung bisa memuluskan rencana pemerintah membeli 7% saham divestasi Newmont.

"Secara umum PIP persiapan menjadi instansi yang bisa mewakili pemerintah. Tapi juga cukup punya fleksibilitas," tukas Agus.

Menteri BUMN Dukung 'Buyback' Telkomsel oleh Telkom - Republika

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA - Kementerian Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) mendorong PT Telkom Tbk (Telkom) menjadi pemegang saham tunggal alias pemilik 100 persen saham PT Telkomsel. Saat ini kepemilikan saham Telkom hanya 65 persen, sedangkan sisanya dimiliki PT Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) sebesar 35 persen.

"'Buyback' (membeli kembali) saham di Telkomsel, pernah ada wacana sedikit secara formal ke saya, tapi ke pemegang saham belum. Itu suatu wacana yang bagus," kata Menteri BUMN, Mustafa Abubakar saat ditemui di kantornya, Jakarta, Jumat (25/3).

Menurutnya, jika aksi korporasi pembelian saham kembali maka akan berdampak positif ke Telkom, dan itu sangat bagus. "Itu suatu wacana yang bagus, memperkuat posisi Telkom untuk menguasai kembali 100 persen saham Telkomsel," jelas Mustafa.

Namun, ia mengutarakan manajemen Telkom terlebih dahulu harus membahasnya secara mendalam dengan SingTel. "Telkom juga tentu akan bicara dengan SingTel, bagaimana kompensasi atau trade off. Silakan dibicarakan," tutur Mustafa.

Saya kira, lanjutnya, memang ada sinyal ke Telkom kembali menguasai 100 persen saham Telkomsel. "Kalau dianggap itu kuat dan positif untuk tambah profit silakan," ujar Mustafa. Dia memperkirakan Telkom akan melakukan 'buyback' saham dengan dana internal.

Secara terpisah, Head of Corporate Communication Telkom, Eddy Kurnia, menyatakan pihaknya menyambut baik dorongan Kementerian BUMN tersebut. "Kami mendukung pernyataan Bapak Menteri (BUMN) karena itu memang yang diharapkan, baik oleh Telkom maupun oleh pemegang saham," kata Eddy.

Tetapi, ia menambahkan tahapan untuk melakukan buyback saham tersebut membutuhkan waktu cukup panjang. "Tahapannya tentu masih panjang karena itu sifatnya perencanaan, jadi belum bisa berbicara target waktu, apa dan bagaimana. Kami masih perlu melakukan kajian internal yang komprehensif atau matang," papar Eddy.

Laba Medco Melesat 331,9% Jadi US$ 83,05 Juta - Detikfinance

Jakarta - PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) membukukan laba bersih sebesar US$ 83,05 juta di tahun 2010, atau melonjak 331,9% dari perolehan laba tahun sebelumnya US$ 19,23 juta.

Seperti dikutip dari laporan kinerja keuangan perseroan tahun 2010, Jumat (25/4/2011), naiknya laba perseroan didorong pertumbuhan pendapatan usaha yang naik 39,24% menjadi US$ 929,85 juta dari sebelumnya di akhir tahun 2009 US$ 667,8 juta.

Penjualan tertinggi perseroan masih dipegang sektor minyak dan gas sebanyak US$ 170 juta. Namun lonjakan penjualan tertinggi adalah di sektor kimia dan produk petroleum lainnya, dari US$ 47,75 juta menjadi US$ 170 juta.

Dengan naiknya laba bersih tersebut, maka laba per saham dasar perseroan pun naik dari US$ 0,0065 di tahun 2009 menjadi US$ 0,0282 per lembar di akhir tahun 2010.

Aset perseroan tercatat naik di akhir tahun 2010, dari US$ 2,04 miliar di tahun 2009 menjadi US$ 2,27 miliar.

Harga saham MEDC di sepanjang tahun 2010 telah tumbuh 37,75%, dari Rp 2.450 per lembar di tahun 2009 menjadi Rp 3.375 per lembar di tahun 2010.

Pada penutupan perdagangan hari ini, harga saham MEDC stagnan di Rp 2.850 per lembar. Sahamnya aktif diperdagangkan 770 kali dengan volume 24.292 lot senilai Rp 35 miliar.

Bakrieland FY10 earning rises 35.1% - Insider Stories

Property developer PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY), one of Bakrie Group's subsidiaries, today reported a 35.1% increase in net income last year on the back of higher revenue.

In an official statement today, Bakrieland booked Rp178.7 billion net income last year from Rp132.3 billion in the previous year.
Adding to that, income from operations augmented 44.9% to Rp241.7 billion from Rp166.8 billion, while gross profit increased 34.4% to Rp669.3 billion from Rp498.1 billion. Operating margin reached 17.7% from 15.8%, representing a 12.8% higher.

Revenue was Rp1.37 trillion, reflecting a 29.1% rise from Rp1.06 trillion. The company's revenue was underpinned by its business segment dubbed City Property with 35.1% contribution. Landed residential segment counted 29.5% of its consolidated revenue, while hotel and resort and toll road segments contributed 29.2% and 6,2% respectively.

UNVR (TP Rp13,000) : Where for art thou upside? - Macquarie

Event
§ We reiterate our Macquee Underperform call on UNVR ahead of the company's 4Q10E result (expected mid next week), where we see tangible risks of another earnings disappointment (our forecasts are shown overleaf).

Impact
§ Weak earnings momentum and a rich multiple: UNVR enters its 4Q10E result announcement with a combination of weak YTD earnings momentum and rising cost pressures, and a share price that has also staged a significant recovery off its lows (from Rp13,800) in recent times. We therefore believe the risks of another earnings disappointment to be relatively high (and at the very least, that UNVR's risk/return profile is skewed to the downside).
§ We would remind investors that 3Q10A revenues grew just 4.5% YoY and triggered a sharp sell-off. Barring an aberration in retailer reordering patterns being the cause, we believe the explanation must lie in either the impact of rising food and fuel costs on HPC spending (UNVR's belief), growing market maturity, or market share pressures (our belief). None of these factors are likely to have abated QoQ, in our view. Also, rising raw material prices during 2H10A also hints at scope for emergent margin pressure during the quarter.
§ FY11E price increases to be of little avail: In February, UNVR instituted price increases of 5–10% pa across many HPC categories, which has also been received positively by the market. However, we believe these price increases came only reluctantly in response to rising cost pressures (and too late to aid 4Q10A), and importantly, we understand that P&G has not followed suit in several key categories (such as hair care and laundry detergent). This hints at growing industry competitive intensity, and we expect rising A&P spend to offset any residual benefits from these price hikes. All told, we believe FY11E is shaping up to be a relatively challenging year for margins.

Earnings and target price revision
§ No change – we are already 6.0% and 10.9% below 4Q10E and FY11E consensus expectations, respectively.

Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp 13,000 based on a DDM methodology.
§ Catalyst: 4Q10E result expected next week. In our view, a continuation of the weak earnings momentum evident in 3Q10A could result in UNVR relinquishing a material proportion of its recent share price recovery.

Action and recommendation
§ Underperform maintained: UNVR is currently trading on a FY10E PER of 36.7x and FY10E P/sales of 6.3x, despite FY10E revenue growth being just 8.2% YoY. Bearing in mind that it is primarily changes in opinion that drive stock prices (in our view), and UNVR's premium pricing, we believe growing competitive risks and decelerating revenue growth pose much greater scope for investors' appraisal of UNVR to become materially more bearish than more bullish from current levels. We therefore expect UNVR to Underperform.

PT Indocement Tbk – Still Attractive - AAA Securities

Summary
Although sales only increased slightly due mainly to volume, INTP’s net profit increased significantly by 17% yoy. This was due to the contribution of higher operating income (as INTP did better in expense management) and interest income. Going forward, favorable climate in property and infrastructure sectors as well as the relatively low interest on housing loans will be the growth catalyst for INTP. We recommend BUY with target price Rp19.000 based on blended valuation method.

2010 Financial performance
INTP sales during 2010 increased by 5% yoy to Rp 13.8 trillion, mainly due to higher sales volume of 13.8 million tons (2009: 13.4 million tons) while price has not changed much. Spurred by favorable domestic demand, exports decrease by 35% yoy to only 1 million tons, while sales to the domestic market increased by 8.5% yoy to 12.5 million tons. The latter growth of 8.5% in domestic market is well above the national average of 6.2%. As such, INTP’s market share increased slightly to 30.9% (2009: 30.2%). Amid the capacity constraint faced by domestic cement producers, INTP could still enjoy higher growth than its peers as its utilization rate is still 73%, while Semen Gresik and Holcim have reached 100% and 82% respectively. The availability of the capacities has placed INTP favorably to capture an increase demand for cement in the short term.

Operating profit & net income growth
The gross profit to increase by 8% yoy to Rp 5.5 trillion and gross profit margin increased to 49.7% in 2010 (2009: 48.3%) due to stronger Rupiah in 2010 and relatively stable fuel price. This caused operating profit to increase by 9% YoY to Rp 4, 020. INTP’s net income in FY2010 improved significantly by 17% yoy to Rp3.2 trillion. Apart from the higher operating income, interest income of Rp 167 billion also contributed to the net income.

Outlook & valuation
With the level of economic growth of 6.4% in 2011, domestic cement sales will grow around 6% - 8% this year. Relatively low interest on loan, the growing demand for housing and infrastructure sectors will be the drivers of INTP’s growth this year. By using a blended valuation method (DCF, PE and EV/ton), our target price is Rp19.000, hence, our BUY recommendation.

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk – Attractive Valuation (Unrated) - AAA Securities

Summary
Curah hujan yang tinggi masih menjadi tantangan utama bagi “Buma” (anak perusahaan DOID, serta kontributor tunggal terhadap revenue dan income), karena mengganggu aktivitas penambangan di area tambang pelanggan yaitu Adaro, Kideco dan Berau. Hal ini menyebabkan menurunnya tingkat produktivitas Buma. Namun hal ini dapat diimbangi oleh beberapa faktor: 1) Permintaan pelanggan untuk menggenjot produksi batubara menghadapi demand yang tinggi di tahun 2011. 2) Meningkatnya jarak hauling road from pit to port, sehingga Buma dapat meminta fee lebih tinggi kepada pelanggannya. 3) Peningkatan efisiensi yang diakibatkan oleh penurunan fuel cost, karena 60% dari pelanggan Buma memiliki cadangan bahan bakar di area tambangnya sendiri. Saat ini saham DOID ditransaksikan di PE 9.45X lebih rendah dari rata – rata PE industri yang sebesar 13.5X. Dari sisi ROE, DOID memiliki ROE tertinggi sebesar 63%, dan rata – rata ROE industri hanya sebesar 37%.

Company Backround
Buma yang didirikan pada tahun 1998, adalah emiten kontraktor tambang batubara terbesar di Indonesia, saat ini saham terbesarnya dimiliki oleh perusahaan Private Equity ternama Northstar Pacific. Kegiatan usaha Buma adalah memberikan jasa angkutan overburden batubara dan produk batubara. Overburden adalah tanah atau batuan yang tidak atau kurang bernilai ekonomis, yang berada di sekitar area tambang dan keberadaanya dapat mengganggu kegiatan operational tambang. Buma juga bertanggung jawab untuk mengatur rencana dan jadwal operasional tambang, sesuai dengan target yang sudah ditentukan oleh pemilik tambang. Saat ini Buma memiliki lima pelanggan besar, antara lain adalah Adaro, Bumi, Kideco, Bayan, Berau.

Heavy rain hits Buma productivity
Di 9M2010, Buma hanya berhasil mencatatkan peningkatan yang kurang berarti sebesar 1.9% yoy dan 6.1%yoy masing – masing 210.7 juta Mt dan 25.4 juta Mt ton untuk overburden removal dan volume produksi batubara. Hal ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan curah hujan yang meningkat drastis di dua area penambangan Buma, yaitu Adaro 26% dan Kideco 50%. Jarak hauling yang jauh dan keterlambatan dalam pengirimin alat berat ke area tambang adalah faktor lain penyebab pertumbuhan yang tidak signifikan ini. Secara kwartalan, meskipun dengan curah hujan yang tinggi sebesar 146% yoy di kwartal tiga 2010, Buma tetap berhasil meningkatkan output untuk overburden removal dan produksi batubara, masing - masing sebesar 4% yoy dan 8% yoy, ini dikarenakan oleh meningkatnya persediaan alat berat di area tambang yang siap dioperasikan untuk membantu pelanggan utama dalam meningkatkan produksinya. Di tinjau dari komposisi pendapatan di 9M2010, Berau memberikan kontribusi terbesar sebanyak 30% dari total pendapatan perseroan dan sisanya berasal dari Adaro 16% dan Kideco 15%. Sebagian besar (60%) pelanggan Buma memiliki cadangan supply bahan bakar sendiri, sehingga Buma tidak perlu membelinya dari supplier lain yang mematok harga yang lebih mahal. Hal ini akan memberikan kontribusi positif terhadap cash cost bahan bakar yang merupakan komponene biaya kedua terbesar yang mencapai 24%, setelah biaya suku cadang yang mencapai 27%.

Contract Extension
Pada tanggal 12 November 2010, Buma menandatangani kontrak jangka panjang higga 2014, untuk area penambangan baru dengan PT Arutmin Indonesia. Komitmen kerja jangka panjang ini, untuk penambangan di area pit 4 - 7 Senakin mine site dengan total produksi batubara sebesar 6.7 juta Mt dan 81 juta Mt overburden removal per tahun. Total nilai kontrak adalah US$200 juta selama 4 tahun. Berdasarkan laporan dari manajemen Buma, kontrak ini akan berlaku efektif di akhir maret 2011.

Financial performance
Di tinjau dari sisi revenue secara kwartalan selama 2010, perseroan hanya mengalami peningkatan sebesar 5% QoQ yang mencapai Rp1.489 triliun karena menurunnya produktivitas perseroan di area tambang yang disebabkan oleh tingginya curah hujan. Tetapi di antara 9M2009 – 9M2010, revenue perseroan naik 321% yoy menjadi Rp4.191 triliun dari Rp995 miliar karena dimulainya kegiatan perseroan dibidang kontraktor tambang, yang telah bertransformasi dari sebelumnya yaitu pada akhir tahun 2009. Selain itu, perseroan mulai mendapatkan kontrak kerja yang signifikan di awal tahun 2010. Hal ini menjadi faktor utama yang menyebabkan Net Profit perseroan juga meningkat drastis sebesar 106% yoy di 9M2010 menjadi Rp 351 miliar dibandingkan dengan rugi tahun sebelumnya Rp - 6,3 miliar. Namun transformasi tersebut juga mengakibatkan naiknya total kewajiban Buma sebesar 1.019% menjadi Rp7 triliun, dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya yang hanya mencapai Rp6 miliar, faktor ini juga mengakibatkan meningkatnya beban bunga sebesar 600% menjadi Rp408 miliar dari Rp6 miliar. Beban bunga tersebut berasal dari senior notes, hutang jangka panjang dan pinjaman bank, dan pinjaman lain – lain.

Outlook and valuation
Pertumbuhan produktivitas yang kurang signifikan sebagai akibat dari hujan lebat akan dapat dikompensasikan oleh beberapa faktor: 1) Permintaan pelanggan untuk menggenjot produksi batubara menghadapi demand yang tinggi di tahun 2011. 2) Meningkatnya jarak hauling road from pit to port, sehingga Buma dapat meminta fee lebih tinggi kepada pelanggannya. 3) Peningkatan efisiensi yang diakibatkan oleh penurunan fuel cost, karena 60% dari pelanggan Buma memiliki cadangan bahan bakar di area tambangnya sendiri. Saat ini saham DOID ditransaksikan di PE 9.45X lebih rendah dari rata – rata PE industri yang sebesar 13.5X. Dari sisi ROE, DOID memiliki ROE tertinggi sebesar 63%, dan rata – rata ROE industri hanya sebesar 37%.

Asia Equity Focus China's 12th FYP provides long-term investment opportunities - Credit Suisse

Selected consumer and building material names will benefit from the 12th FYP
Although the recently concluded National People's Congress (NPC) did not turn out to be a market re-rating event, a less aggressive policy tightening tone and recovery in risk appetite could lead to a mid-year market rebound in China equities as inflation peaks, in our view. In fact, the agenda of this year's NPC was very much centered on improving the living standards of the poor. There are many initiatives in the 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) that addresses this issue. These include curbing food inflation, income redistribution, tax reform, social housing, and healthcare coverage to name a few.

Almost all of the consumption-related sectors in China should benefit from the policies of the 12th FYP. However, we do not advise investors to take up positions in consumer staples at this point, especially food and beverage names, due to the mounting margin pressure on rising soft commodities prices. The only exception are supermarket operators, such as China Resources Enterprise (291 HK, BUY, TP HKD 38), which have effective means of absorbing the higher costs of goods sold through subsidies and the pass-through to customers. For the consumer discretionary sector, the effect of rising income will differ across the mass and highend retail markets. The consumer discretionary names that we expect to receive a boost from an increase in disposable income over the longer term are mass consumption-related consumer discretionary stocks such as Tencent (700 HK, BUY).

According to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development's (MOHURD) latest announcement, local governments will be required to begin construction of no less than 10 million units in 2011 (versus 5.8 million in 2010), and another 10
million in 2012. This is an ambitious target, considering the construction start target for 2011 could account for almost 50% of the commodities housing floor space sold in 2010. We believe the social housing program announced during the NPC, together with water facility initiatives and the full-scale expansion of the high speed rail system during the 12th FYP period, will significantly boost demand for various building materials. The cement industry, in particular, should be one of the major beneficiaries due to the improving demand and supply dynamics. Our TOP PICK in the sector is China Resources Cement (1313 HK, BUY, TP HKD 7.4). On the other hand, low-end construction steel products will also be required, e.g. products produced by Maanshan Steel and Iron (Magang) (323 HK, HOLD). Despite this, Magang is currently facing imminent margin pressure with rising iron ore prices; thus, we only recommend accumulating this stock on dips.

We continue to advocate avoiding sectors that are not supported by government policies (e.g. auto, properties) and favor sectors that stand to benefit in the medium to long term from the government's 12th FYP, including the cement, energy, machinery, consumer and banking sectors.

Jumat, 25 Maret 2011

ASEAN Strategy : Tropical comeback - Deutsche Bank

The ASEAN markets looked almost written off just a few weeks ago during the EM to DM rotation. While some seemed convinced that ASEAN had run its course and that inflationary challenges were going to dismantle all structural positives built up in the last five years, we could not
disagree more.

No capital exodus, debt manageable, food inflation easing and growth intact Let us start with a few key observations.

First, contrary to the perception of some, foreigners did not exit TIPM (Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia) markets in droves in the period from November 2010
to February 2011. Net selling during this period amounted to just US$263m: a negative sign, but not significantly so. The Philippines was the worst hit market with net selling of US$326m, the equivalent of 20% of cumulative net flows in the previous 12 months: again, negative but not
enormous. Indonesia was barely affected, with net selling of just US$130m (-3% vs. the previous 12 months), while Malaysia (+1%) and Thailand (+12%) actually recorded net buying in the period. Even if there was persistent capital outflow, economies like Indonesia and the Philippines are now structurally much stronger and more resilient given the healthy build-up of foreign reserves.

Second, food inflation concerns have abated since early 2011. Commodity prices, especially essential food items like rice and palm oil, have pulled back. ASEAN corporate gearing remains low at 0.23x, offering a sufficient buffer if rates rise too quickly. With the
exception of Malaysia and Singapore, household debt/GDP is low at <30%.

Third, ASEAN valuations may be at a slight premium to historical trends at 13.3x 2011F and 11.4x 2012F PER (vs. Asia ex-ASEAN at respective 11.7x and 10.1x), but EPS growth is superior at 23% and 16.7% (vs. 20.9% and 16.2%).

Our order of preference – Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore.

Sector Flash Banking Update - Bahana

New benchmark on yields of government variable bonds
§ Our recent meeting with Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance revealed that the benchmark rate for the government variable recap bonds will now be tied to the 3-month T-Bills from the 3-month SBI (Certificates of Bank Indonesia) rate previously. Reference to SBI is no longer possible as SBI auctions have ceased since October 2010.

§ It is worth noting that the last SBI rate was priced at 6.36% while the T-Bills rate currently stands at only 5.19%. This suggests negative spread of 1.17%, translating to loss of incomes for banks holding variable bonds.

§ However, most banks are in the process of rejecting this move by the central bank as reference to T-Bills will pressure yields on government bonds owned Indonesian banks.

Outlook
The use of T-Bills as the new benchmark rate will be unfavorably for banks carrying government variable bonds. Amongst banks under our coverage, Bank Mandiri (BMRI) would suffer the most as it is highly exposed to variable bonds, accounting for approximately 97% of its government bond holdings, equivalent to nearly IDR80t. This is followed by Bank Negara Indonesia’s (BBNI) IDR15.9t (49% of total government bonds) and Bank Central Asia’s (BBCA) IDR15.7t (39%). Meanwhile, variable bond exposures in other banks amount to less than IDR5.0t (exhibit 5).

Recommendation and valuation
Our back of the envelope calculation suggests that banks’ lower interest incomes from government bonds would result in the following net earnings downgrades: BMRI (-4.7%), BBNI (-2.2%), BBTN (2.1%), BBCA (-1.2%), BDMN (-0.9%) and BBRI (-0.2%). However, the impact towards BVPS is less significant (ranging from 0bps – 50bps), allowing our BUY ratings for BBNI and BMRI to remain intact. This coupled with continued inflationary pressure in 1H11 has us reiterating our NEUTRAL view on the sector.

Regional plantations - Inventories rising faster than expected - Macquarie Research

Event
§ Our channel checks suggest that production growth is above our expectations, while customers have shied away from purchases in recent months due to high CPO prices and a narrow price discount to soy oil. This means that CPO inventories are likely to rise faster than our and market expectations, putting downward pressure on prices in the near term.

Impact
§ Indonesian production rebounds strongly, Malaysia recovering as well:
Production growth for some Indonesian companies (large and small) in the first two months of the year has been north of 25% (see Fig 2). Production in Indonesia had already started recovering in 4Q10 as can been seen in Fig 3, but the growth this year has so far exceeded our expectations. We are assuming a 7% YoY growth in Indonesian production for 2011. Our discussions with Malaysian companies also suggest that production continues to recover in March after easing of heavy rains. Recent press reports suggest that mills in Johor (which produce 30% of Malaysian CPO output) have reported a 20+% MoM increase in March output.

§ Export demand continues to be weak: Latest data from cargo surveyors suggests that Malaysian exports for March so far have fallen 10% MoM. This would imply a 20% YoY fall in export demand for 1Q11. Indonesian exports for the month of January also fell 2.4% YoY despite an increase in output. We believe that high CPO prices and a relatively narrow discount to soy oil have caused customers to postpone/shift their purchases.

§ Inventories to rise sooner than expected: Rising production and falling export demand mean that inventories are likely to rise sooner than expected, causing pressure on prices in the near term. We now see downside risk to our 2Q11 CPO price forecast of RM3,683/t unless soy fundamentals turn significantly supportive.

§ Soybeans – tight supply but also slower demand: Soybeans are the supportive factor for CPO prices for 2011, in our view, as our agri-economist, Alex Bos, expects a tight US soy balance sheet this year and no growth in US soy acreage. On the other hand, Chinese imports of soybeans in recent months have been weak (see Figs 8 and 9), with Feb 2011 imports falling to a three-year low and crush margins weakening further. USDA’s 31 March planting intentions report should be a key factor to watch.

Outlook
§ We are Neutral on the plantations sector for 2011. We believe that stocks are currently factoring in a CPO price of RM3,150/t vs the current three-month forward of RM3,330/t. We see higher production pressure prices in the coming months, while a tight soy complex and rising crude oil prices should provide support. Our preference, therefore, is to own stocks that are still likely to grow their earnings in 2012, despite our assumption of an 11% decline in CPO prices next year. Based on this, our top picks are KL Kepong in Malaysia, London Sumatra in Indonesia and New Britain Palm Oil in London.

Harum Energy result, Astra Int update, budget, DOID - Nomura Indonesia

Harum Energy (HRUM IJ - BUY) just released a financial result for FY10 which is inline with our expectation.

Key summaries and our comments are as follows:
· Earnings grew 7% y-y to Rp824bn which was in line with our estimate of Rp832bn
· Revenue growth was flat due to a combination of higher sales volume at MSJ (+49% y-y to 6.0mn tons in our estimate) and lower ASP (-16% y-y to US$76.5/ton in our estimate)
· EBITDA was down 11% y-y on higher oil price
· HRUM was in a net cash position with a cash balance of Rp1,030bn (~US$114mn) and a low debt of Rp45bn (~US$5mn)
· No operational numbers are issued by HRUM as of now but we believe that they wouldn’t be much different from our estimates as follows:
o Production volume (100% basis) : 7.4mn tons
o Sales volume (100%) : 8.6mn tons
o ASP (MSJ) : US$76.5/ton
o ASP (SB) : US$71.3/ton

· We continue to like HRUM on its strong exposure to seaborne market, highly exposed to spot market, and healthy balance sheet.
· We maintain our Buy rating with a target price Rp11,400/share

Astra Intl (ASII IJ – BUY) – Toyota and Komatsu latest update + risk of disruption in MCU. Maintain BUY.

The report of damage in production facilities at microcontroller unit production lines in the Tohoku region, including the key Naka (Ibaraki Prefecture) plant of Renesas Electronics [6723] (No rating; ¥658, 18 March close) might have some impact to automotive production globally (see attached report from our equity research team in Tokyo). Renesas Electronics is the #1 microcontroller manufacturer globally with 45% market share of automotive MCU. MCU is used in automobile components including power train, steering, airbag, lights, locks, etc. A typical mid-range automobile contains between 30-100 microcontrollers.

However, the risk to Indonesia automotive production is likely to be less severe vs. develop market given the popular car models in Indonesia are of simpler technology with minimum usage of sophisticated MCU.

In the meantime, Toyota Motor Corporation has resumed production of parts for overseas production (Toyota update as per March 24, 2011).

“In addition to the resumed production of replacement parts (started on March 17) and parts for overseas production (including knockdown) assembly (started on March 21), from March 28 TMC will resume production of hybrid vehicles (the Prius, HS 250h and CT 200h) for which worldwide demand is strong. The production will be limited to TMC's Tsutsumi Plant and Toyota Motor Kyushu. For the time being, we are keeping an eye on progress in production while carefully assessing parts supply.” http://www2.toyota.co.jp/en/announcement/110324_1.html


Komatsu on the other hand has yet to resume its operation in its Ibaraki (dump trucks, articulated dump trucks, large wheel dozers, large wheel loaders) and Koriyama (hydraulic equipments) plants. Astra’s subsidiary, United Tractors (UNTR IJ), is the sole distributor of Komatsu in Indonesia. United Tractors contributes about 20% of Astra profit. Selling Komatsu equipments only accounts for 25%-30% of United Tractors profit with the remaining profit comes from contract mining, parts/after sales services, and its own coal mine. About 20% of Komatsu equipments sold in Indonesia are imported from Japan.

Government budget recorded a surplus of Rp18.5tn for the first 2 months of 2011, due to higher income realization and low expenditure/spending. Income for the first two months of the year recorded Rp130t or 11.8% of full year budget target or 20% higher than last year realization. Realized spending for the period was Rp111.5t or 9.1% of current year budget. Although government spending realization is lower than income realization, current year-to-date spending amount was 14% higher than last year. Healthy government budget would be positive for economy, and would potentially support further upgrade in Indonesia's credit rating. More specifically as healthy budget would help ensure sufficient government spending for infrastructure development.


Buma, mining contractor subsidiary of Delta Dunia (DOID IJ – not rated) obtained new US$750m debt funding from CIC and GIC. The new funding will mostly be used to refinance the US$600m debt raised by the company end of last year. The new funding from GIC and CIC will have longer tenor of 7 years compared to current existing loans. While longer tenor debt would benefit Buma, entry of CIC and further investment by CIC in the company would further strengthen shareholder base of Buma, and ensure sufficient funding for any future expansion. CIC would be a majority financial shareholder of Buma in addition to GIC and TPG.

Kangaroo-Bayan Resources Commences Mamahak Coking Coal Project - The Indonesia Today

Kangaroo Resources Ltd said the coal operation and sales have commenced from Mamahak Coking Coal Project with PT Bayan Resources (BYAN) Tbk.
The company reported steady coal production in site, as well as an upgrade to haul roads to allow year-round use of haul trucks to transport coal to the port stockpile, and upgrades to the coal loading infrastructure at Mamahak. They also said Bayan to mobilize additional barges to ship the coal to its coal handling facilities.

Kangaroo expects to have steady cashflow throughout the year from Mamahak, including the dry season. Bayan expects to able to load the coal directly from the Mamahak jetty, demonstrating the immediate impact of the off-take contract and benefits of the strategic alliance and associated transaction.

Both companies are immediately commencing an exploration programme to target an expansion of the existing JORC-compliant resource estimate at Mamahak.
The current JORC comes from less than 10% of the overall concession area and the company spoke its confidence that this can be elevated over the next year. The exploration programme has a view to lift production towards 1 million tons per annum.
Kangaroo is currently targeting 500,000 tons per annum from Mamahak as an initial production objective which would earn up to US$50 million in annual revenue at current price.

Dynaplast Goes Private, Tender Offer Priced Rp4,500 - The Indonesia Today

PT Dynaplast Tbk (DYNA), the leading rigid plastic manufacturing company in Indonesia, decided to go private and be voluntarily delisted from stock exchange. It has set tender offer price of Rp4,500 for its shares owned by public investors.
The company said in a propectus published today that the tender offer price is 41.5% premium compared to its fair value of Rp3,181 set by the independent appraiser.

It said the tender offer shares accounts for 33.25% of total company's enlarged capital, or Rp332.82 billion in total.

The tender offer is scheduled for May 25, 2011 to June 27, 2011 while delisting will be effective in August 1, 2011.

The company will hold extraordinary general meeting (EGM) of shareholders in April 27, 2011 for gaining approval on go private plan.

Dynaplast's shareholders are PT Hambali Dina Mitra (40.09%), Dynapack Asia Pte., Ltd., Singapore (26.66%), UOB Kay Hian Pte., Ltd., Singapore (8.71% and public (24.54%).

The Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) had since November 22, 2010 suspended trading in DYNA shares after receiving go private proposal from Dynaplast.

WIKA mengincar Proyek RFCC senilai USD 1,5 Miliar - Britama

Wijaya Karya (WIKA) mengincar proyek RFCC (residual fluid catalytic cracker) milik Pertamina senilai USD 1,5 miliar. WIKA telah menggandeng Hyundai (Korea Selatan) dan Wison Shanghai Group (China). WIKA bersama mitranya telah memenangi prakualifikasi tahap pertama untuk tender RFCC dan siap membangun 1 pabrik derivatif dari minyak Pertamina.

Bakrieland Posts 35% Profit Growth - The Indonesia Today

Property developer PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) posted net profit of Rp178.7 billion in 2010, grew by 35% compared to Rp132.26 billion in previous year. It recorded net earning per share (EPS) of Rp5.62, compared to Rp5.72 in 2009.
Revenue increased 29% to Rp1.37 trillion from Rp1.06 trillion while cost of revenue also rose 40% to Rp698.28 billion. As operating expense totaled Rp427.56 billion, the company booked operating profit of Rp241.71 billion, a 45% surge from Rp166.75 billion in 2009.
It also recorded interest charges of Rp53.65 billion, compared to interest income of 23.94 billion a year earlier.
The Rp178.7 billion profit represents net profit margin of 13.1% and return on equity of 2.2%.

As of December 31, 2010, the company's assets totaled Rp17.06 trillion while liability amounted Rp6.58 trillion. It has cash of Rp860.56 billion.
The stock, ELTY, closed at Rp137 Thursday (March 24). At that price, Bakrieland currently has market capitalization of Rp5.469 trillion or about US$625 million.

Kepala BPS : April Juga Berpotensi Deflasi - Okezone

JAKARTA - Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan menuturkan bahwa bulan April 2011 mendatang berpotensi untuk terjadinya deflasi, sama seperti bulan Maret ini.

“Saya belum tahu, tetapi potensi deflasi ada. Potensinya ada, yang terburuk ada inflasi tetapi kecil," ungkap Rusman di Jakarta, Kamis (24/3/2011).

Lebih lanjut Rusman menjelaskan bahwa potensi deflasi pada bulan depan sangat tergantung kepada harga minyak karena pada bulan Maret 2010 ada deflasi. Akan tetapi jika deflasinya lebih tipis, maka inflasi year on year (yoy) akan cederung naik.

Terkait dengan harga minyak, Rusman menambahkan bahwa hal ini masih belum diputuskan karena policy yang masih belum diputuskan.

“Kalau kenaikan harga minyak dalam pengertian policy tentu belum karena sekarang masih di pending. Tetapi kalau bicara pertamax memang ada kenaikannya karena bulan kemarin kita hitung pertamax Rp8.100, sekarang hitungannya sudah Rp8.700. Tetapi perlu dipahami share pertamax tidak begitu besar. Sekarang ini diduga perbedaan yang tinggi ada migrasi penggunaan pertamax ke premium," pungkasnya.

Strong provincial banks' profitability metrics underscore underpenetrated market - CLSA

Our bank analyst Bret Ginesky is looking at regional bank IPO pipeline. Following the step taken by regional bank Bank Jabar (BJBR IJ), some regional banks are likely to follow through with IPOs.

Bank Jatim (Bank of East Java) is scheduled to offer shares to the public this year, with seven others planning for IPO in 2011 or 2012.

What is very interesting is the solid profitability metrics from ROE and ROA perspective. Average ROE and ROA in 2010 for these regional banks are 31% and 2.9% respectively. Credit quality is also pristine with NPLs under 2%. High CASA ratios are also common. Bank Papua, for example, has 90% CASA and 43% LDR!

The data underscores the attractiveness of the banking sector in Indonesia. Structurally, Indonesia is a very underpenetrated market for banking sector.

Indo consumer credit to GDP is only 8% and loan/GDP is 26%, one of lowest in the world. Only 25% of the population has a bank account. Demographics further favor Indonesia growth in credit, fees and general banking.

Indo banking sector is in the frontline to benefit from hockey stick J-curve growth in middle class in Indonesia. About 45% of the population in Indonesia is < 25 yrs old. Demographics and an increasing proportion of middle-income families will be important drivers for the sector over the next decade in Indonesia.

The proportion of middle and upper middle class households will increase from 30% currently to 40% next year. There will be nearly 100mn middle class people in 2012, four times the population of Australia. More than 60% of the Indonesian population will be urbanized by 2012.

Demand growth in many sectors, such as financial service, is likely to be exponential, as average per-capita disposable income approaches the critical US$3,000 level.

Our top picks in the banking sector are Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) and BNI (BBNI IJ).

COMPANY_NOTES UNTR_Updates From Komatsu Japan - Indopremier

Good news winded from Komatsu production facilities in Japan. Three Komatsu plants have recovered soon after the earthquake and expected to operate shortly. However, electricity shortage could be a major issue before return to full speed. We are optimist that the quack’s effect is minimal to UNTR’s full year performance. For conservative reason, we cut our Komatsu sales target from 6,000 units to 5,800 units to reflect current disruptions. BUY recommendation remains for UNTR with TP Rp 25,800 per share (12.1% upside)

Early Recovery
From seven production plants, three plants were damaged by the quake:
1. Ibaraki Plant (dump trucks and large size wheel loaders)
One of the Komatsu plants that hit the most by the quake. Early and rapid recovery after the quake give us the optimism to gradually resume its operation as early as middle of this week
2. Koriyawa Plant (hydraulic cylinders and components)
This plant only suffered some damages. Current problem is gasoline supply, which affected employee’s mobility. The gasoline supply is expected to ease up this week and operation should be back to normal shortly
3. Oyama Plant (engines and hydraulic components)
This plant suffered some damages in buildings and facilities. The damages were restored and it has started the manufacturing operation on 18 March 2011.

Electricity, Hitachi Naka port, and Komatsu parts and Components
Electricity also becomes main issue before all three plant return to normal production given main damage of nuclear power plants. Another issue comes from damage Hitachi Naka port where Komatsu ships its product from Ibaraki Plant. Reconstruction has begun and may take 1.5 to 2 months to come back to normal. Alternatively, Komatsu is seeking other port temporarily. The last issue is the Komatsu parts and component suppliers, where from 200 suppliers, half of them suffered some damages as well. In order to restore the supply of parts and components, Komatsu also tries to find other alternative sources such as in-house or other suppliers.

Adjusted Down Komatsu Sales Target
We expect the disruptions to have minor impact to UNTR’s full year performance. Normal supplies activities may incur in 1-2 month a head, while at present UNTR estimates its inventory is adequate for three months sales. Hence we see UNTR’s Komatsu sales will remain stable in the next two months. The disruptions are likely arise in May to July as UNTR’s inventory comes to empty among uncertain Komatsu supplies from Japan, especially dump truck and large size wheel loaders. We cut our Komatsu sales to 5,800 units from previously 6,000 units to anticipate unfavorable Komatsu sales result in the mid of year.

Downgrade but Still BUY
We downgrade our TP to Rp 25,700 per share (from Rp 26,300 per share) to reflect Komatsu’s issues. We believe UNTR’s FI11 performance will benefit from commodity price hike as more order for Komatsu and more order for mine contracting service. Hence, we estimate UNTR to deliver 12.5% YoY and 5.7% YoY revenue and net profit growth. Our target price reflect 21x PER and 9.3x EV/EBITDA in 2011.

Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ, TP IDR950) FY10 results: Net profit in line, margins widen - OSK Nusadana

· FY10 net profit within expectation. Adhi Karya posted a FY10 net profit of IDR189.5bn, up 15% y-o-y, which was in line with our expectation (FY10F:184.3trn) but higher than consensus’ estimated IDR173trn. The increase was mainly supported by higher margins and a lower effective tax rate. Revenue, however, dropped 26% y-o-y to IDR5.7trn, coming in 8% below our forecast of IDR6.2trn, mainly on the later-than-expected launch of government projects. Meanwhile, its operating profit of IDR551bn for FY10 was ahead of our and consensus estimates of IDR490bn and IDR505bn respectively. Overall, we are satisfied with the company’s FY10 numbers.

· EPC and property segment partly boost margins. The company booked 12.5% in gross margin in FY10, which was its highest annual margin ever, expanding by 400bps from 8.5% in FY09. We have yet to get the revenue breakdown for FY10 but judging from the 9M10 results, we believe the margin expansion was from: i) strong revenue growth in the Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) and property (ADHI Realty) segments; and ii) claims of cost escalation in the government’s multi-year projects. The EPC and property segments normally command higher margin than the ordinary construction business. The higher revenue contribution from its property unit, Adhi Realty, also helped to reduce its effective tax rate as the company pays a normal corporate tax rate of 25% versus the 3% final tax charged to its construction revenue.

· Accelerating balance sheet recovery. The company made a provisioning for IDR96bn in bad debt in 4Q10, of which IDR82bn was for its Qatar project. We are positive with management’s aim to quickly clean up its balance sheet of further provisioning, especially from the failed Qatar project. This should help boost the company’s earnings beyond 2012, when the remaining IDR250bn in bad debt associated with the Qatar project is expected to be cleared.

· Buy maintained with TP of IDR950. ADHI is now trading at 6.3x and 5.5x its 2011-12f earnings respectively, or a 30% discount to the average sector valuation. At this juncture, we maintain our Buy call as our TP of IDR950 provides a 20% upside potential. The company’s high margin in 2010 may provide an upside to our earnings forecasts, but this may be offset by future provisioning on bad debts. ADHI’s higher gearing compare to its peers may also hinder its ability to capture future projects owing to financing constraints. The company has been planning a rights issue to pare down its debts since 2005 but this has yet to materialize.

Astra International - Expecting supply disruption post April - Deutsche Bank

The Association of Indonesian Auto Industries (GAIKINDO) together with representatives from Toyota, Daihatsu, Isuzu, Hyundai, Hino, Mitsubishi and Indomobil stated that the Japanese car producers' components and parts inventories are sufficient only until next month and their availability beyond April would largely depend on the principals' ability to revive their production facilities in Japan.

It is fair to expect Astra Int'l (ASII) to experience supply disruption, however, it is still too early to determine the impact of above shortages given no information on the principals' progress on the resumption of their productions. GAIKINDO has lowered its 4-wheeler forecasts in 2011F from 850k units to 800k units (vs. DB: 862.5k units). Based on our sensitivity analysis, every 10% decline in 4-wheeler or 2-wheeler sales volumes would result in a 2% decline in ASII's consolidated net earnings.

ASII distributes 4-wheeler under following brands: Toyota, Daihatsu, Isuzu, Nissan Diesel and Peugeot controlling 56% market share in the first two months of 2011. For details please refer to table below.

OMPANY_NOTES TBIG_Front Runner - Indopremier

PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) is one of the major independent tower companies in Indonesia that holds a competitive tower portfolio. Strong relationships with Indonesia’s largest telecommunication operators and a well-positioned and robust tower portfolio provide TBIG a buffer for competition with other tower companies. We initiate with a Buy call and TP of Rp 3,100, 39% upside.

Promising outlook of the tower infrastructure industry. Infrastructure sharing is increasingly becoming the optimum answer as Indonesian telecommunication companies continue to remain under pressure to boost profitability. According to Detecon, Indonesia mobile subscriber growth is expected to remain strong with anticipation to grow 9% CAGR from 2009 to 2014 and minutes of usage at 12% CAGR for the same period. Both aspects would fuel new tower demand and overall tower tenancy growth.

Front runner. We are sanguine on the prospect of tower industry, particularly on TBIG. We believe that to grow faster TBIG will actively participate in any tower acquisition opportunities. At end 2010, TBIG has managed around 4,700 tenancies, an increase of 149% YoY. With the current capacity we estimate an additional 140 tenancies per month or around additional 1,680 tenancies in 2011. Post 2011, we assume an increase of 5% YoY of monthly tenancies.

Appealing valuation. On the back of the foregoing, we estimate that TBIG’s revenue and EBITDA for 2011 of Rp 1,179bn and Rp 905bn, respectively, representing a 76% and 77% YoY growth. Higher co-location should improve its EBITDA margin. And using DCF and WACC of 11.3%, we derive the equity value for TBIG of Rp 14.1trillion or Rp 3,100/share, representing 39% upside. Currently TBIG is traded 14.9x FY11 EV/EBITDA and 11.5x FY12 EV/EBITDA, at the low end of international peers trading multiple. BUY

Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA), Company Visit Note - Lowering Its Leverage - OSK Nusadana

Berlian Laju Tanker at a glance. Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA), established in 1981, is one of the largest chemical tanker operators in the world. The company owns 105 tankers comprising chemical tankers, oil tankers, gas tankers and FPSO tankers, with an average age of 7.5 years. BLTA has 7 tankers under construction, of which 3 chemical tankers and one gas tanker will be operated in 2011, and 3 gas tankers for 2012. As of 9M10, its main revenue contributors were chemical bulk (78%) and oil (14%). Its owned vessels account for 80% of its operating revenue while chartered vessels make up the remaining 20%.

Subsidiary on board for public listing. BLTA’s subsidiary, Buana Listya Tama, which is currently 100%-owned, plans to float via an IPO to raise USD150m in May 2011 by offering for public subscription some 40% of its shares. The proceeds would be used to purchase 9 tankers and some 25-30% to pay its loans. Strategy-wise, the IPO will benefit the parent company as BLTA would be able to focus on its international routes, thus giving Buana Listya Tama (non-chemical transporting vessels) the chance to flap its wings and focus on the domestic routes. According to the company’s management, Buana Listya Tama contributes 13% of BLTA’s total assets and 27% of EBITDA. Post-IPO its debt would be minimal while it has 90% revenue coming from long term contracts with relatively higher charter rates compare to international market rates.

Easing debt burden equals better credit profile. As of 9M10, BLTA’s debt to assets ratio stood at 69%, while its net gearing was 200%. After the IPO, its net gearing level will drop to 140% in 2011 on a consolidated basis. BLTA has embarked on US$685 million refinancing facilities which has boosted its credit profile where it has:

1. Reduce 10 different bank loan facilities to only 1 facility;
2. Lengthen the maturity period of its bank loans from 5 years to 10 years, which reduces its principal installment burden by US$166mil for the next 3 years.

Cabotage & LPG demand the catalyst. Most of BLTA’s chemical, oil and gas and its offshore tankers are categorized as B vessels, therefore are not part of category C currently being reviewed by the government for exemption. This means that the cabotage ruling will open up many opportunities for the company. Furthermore, Indonesia’s shift to LPG usage from kerosene would also bolster BLTA’s gas transportation revenue (7.5% revenue contribution in 9M10). It is worth noting that LPG demand has grown 23x to 460k cubic m in the last 2 years.

Hopes of a better future. Despite its high leverage, BLTA owns quality assets and is able to sustain gross profit and margin growth. The company’s 9M10 net loss of USD36m was an improvement over the 9M09 loss of IDR177bn. The losses were mainly due to non-cash items treated as other expenses, which negatively affected its bottom-line. Based on market consensus, BLTA is trading at 6.8x – 6.2x 2011-12 EV/EBITDA.

APLN complication - JP Morgan

* Agung Podomoro Land (APLN) – a complicated issue indeed. The company held an analyst meeting yesterday after releasing FY10 results. Management expects profits to be at least double in 2011 (at least Rp480bn). We expect net profit of Rp552bn and consensus expects Rp578bn for FY11.

My take – management’s new guidance seems to be on the safe side, taking into account the possibility of APLN borrowing some US$150mn in the event that the company can close an opportunistic land acquisition deal (market speculates the landbank seller to be Bakrieland). Without that, I continue to see upside risk to consensus number, given that 2010 marketing sales have far exceeded JPM estimate (Rp2.4trn vs. Rp1.8trn excluding VAT), and the upbeat 2011 marketing sales guidance of Rp3.5-4.0trn vs. JPM estimate of Rp1.8trn. The company guides normalized gross margin of 35% (slighly lower than JPM estimate of 38%), but the net effect on earnings should still be positive. In theory, a much higher than expected 2010-11 marketing sales should drive substantial upgrade to 2012 net profit. But the complication lies on maithe adoption of new accounting rule for the high-rise developers, where they can no longer book revenue on percentage of completion. So the issue now is that despite the fact that APLN is doing really well, net profit realization for 2011 and 2012 may be an on-going concern for the stock. On a discount to NAV, the stock trades on an 18% discount to last publish NAV/share of Rp415 (assuming no re-investments), versus peer group at 40% discount. *** Perhaps we should look at these property names on a whole different metric – I am suggesting MarketCap-to-Unbooked Profits, which is often used to compare construction companies to account for backlog orders ***

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk 2010 Financial Update: Better 4Q10 Performance - Lautandhana Securindo

Highlight Events
§ Indocement has released its audited FY10 financial report, where the company’s revenue grew by 5.3% YoY reached to Rp 11.14 trillion vs Rp 10.58 trillion in FY09. Meanwhile, net profit climbed by 17.4% YoY from Rp 2.75 trillion to Rp 3.22 trillion.

§ On quarterly basis, the company’s revenue also grew by 10.3% QoQ attained to Rp 3.03 trillion from Rp 2.75 trillion in 3Q10. Gross profit and EBITDA also increased by 9.4% QoQ and 10.6% QoQ, respectively, while net profit jumped by 13.3% QoQ.

§ In 2011, Indocement will start to construct a new cement mill (located in Citeureup plant) with capacity of 2 million tones p.a. and is expected to commence operation in 2012/2013. The new cement mill will increase the total cement capacity by 10.8% to a total of 20.6 million tones p.a. from the current capacity of 18.6 million tones p.a.


Comments
§ Indocement profitability looked superior in yearly basis, thanks to lower production cost and an efficient distribution cost due to concentrated selling coverage area. Operating and EBITDA margins climbed by 117 bps and 136 bps, respectively. Meanwhile, net profit margin was recorded at 29% in FY10 on the back of an increase in interest income, lower interest expenses, forex gains and tax cut rate.

§ COGS per ton decreased by 0.9% YoY (Rp 403 k in FY10 vs Rp 406 k in FY09), thanks to Rupiah appreciation in 2010 since around 60% of the production cost are US$ based.

§ Indocement has no difficulty to finance their expansion, backed by stronger balance sheet. As of 2010, the company maintained its net cash position while debt equity ratio tumbled to 2.8% from 3.2%. Meanwhile, its internal cash soared by 78.6% YoY reached to Rp 4.68 trillion vs Rp 2.62 trillion in FY09.

§ Based on FY2010 result, we revised our financial projection to reflect a more conservative average selling price assumption. For FY2011, we expect the revenue to grow by 11.3% YoY to Rp 12.40 trillion and net profit is projected to reach Rp 3.56 trillion (+10.4% YoY), backed by interest income growth, lower interest expenses and further tax cut rate (25% in FY11 vs 28% in FY10).


Recommendation
§ Based on our new forecast estimates, our new DCF valuation (WACC of 12.1%), results in a lower equity value of Rp 18,500 per share from previous value of Rp21,350 per share. The new target price represents PER of 19.13x FY2011 and PBV of 4.35x FY2011. Currently, the counter is traded at FY11 PER of 15.51x and PBV of 3.53x, therefore our target price offered 23% upside. STILL A BUY.

BBNI: More money to lend out - Mandiri Sekuritas

BBNI’s performance remained solid in FY10 thanks to strong recovery of written-off assets. We see at least 2 positive catalysts for the bank’s performance this year (1) lower tax rate as the bank managed to raise its public shareholding to 40% and (2) higher loan growth post rights issue. We therefore maintained our buy recommendation on the stock, which offer 23.3% upside potential from the current share price.

Benefited from high recovery of written-off loans. In FY10 BBNI recorded strong recovery of its written-off assets of Rp2.2tn, which consisted of Rp1.8tn recovery of written-off assets before 2010 and Rp358bn recovery of written-off loans in 2010. Until Dec10, the total recovery was approximately 15-20% (total written-off assets until Dec 2010 was around Rp30tn, Rp9tn of which occurred during 2008-2010 under the new management). The bank expects to recover at least Rp2.2tn of such assets this year.

.. while coverage ratio remained sound. Despite its success to recover written-off loans, the state-owned lender still allocated significant provision expenses for impairment losses of Rp3.9tn in FY10, thus bringing the accumulated allowance to Rp7.0 tn at end Dec10. Most of the allowance belong to individual impairment, in line with the bank’s high exposure to corporate and medium-size segment (around 54% of total loans at end 2010). It is worth noting that NPL from these two segments represented 73.5% of the total NPL recorded by the bank in 2010. The bank’s aggressive provisioning policy enabled it to maintain strong coverage ratio of 120.6% at end 2010 (from 120.1% at end 2009).

To boost loan thanks to stronger capital. Post rights issue, the bank’s CAR strengthened to 18.6% at end 2010 from 13.8% at end 2009. This allowed higher loan growth this year of 17-20%, significant increase from 12.8% in 2010. The highest growth will still be expected on the consumer segment (24-27%) followed by corporate (19-22%) and SME (12-15%). It is worth noting that in 2010, the banks’ exposure to the medium sector fell by 11.1% yoy, bringing its contribution to total loans down to 17.9% at end 2010 from 22.7% at end 2009.

Buy recommendation is maintained. We expect the bank’s net profit to grow by 34% yoy, supported by higher loan growth and lower tax rate. Risk to our forecast is lower recovery from written-off assets. We assume Rp1.0tn recovery from written- off assets (vs management’s targets of minimum Rp2.2tn). At the current price, the stock offers 23.3% upside potential. Maintain buy.

Indonesia Stocks: Astra International, Borneo Lumbung, Telkom - Bloomberg

Shares of the following companies had unusual moves in Indonesian trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are as of the 4 p.m. Jakarta-time close.

The Jakarta Composite index (JCI) advanced 55.41 points, or 1.6 percent, to 3,611.64.

Energy companies: PT Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ), Indonesia’s biggest listed oil company, gained 1.8 percent to 2,850 rupiah and PT Energi Mega Persada (ENRG IJ), the second largest, rose 2.4 percent to 128 rupiah.

Oil rose for a fourth day as Allied strikes in Libya intensified, raising concern crude supplies from Africa’s third- biggest producer will remain halted. Oil gained 0.6 percent to $106.39 a barrel in after-hours trading in New York as of 4:20 p.m. Jakarta time.

Banks: PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Indonesia’s largest bank by market value, rose 0.7 percent to 6,850 rupiah. PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), the largest bank by assets, jumped 2.50 percent to 6,150 rupiah.

The Finance Ministry sees the strengthening of Indonesia’s rupiah supporting the country’s economic growth and won’t hurt exports or imports, Bambang Brodjonegoro, head of fiscal policy, said today.

PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ), the nation’s second-biggest cement producer, climbed 5.3 percent to 15,800 rupiah. The expectation the cement maker will benefit from infrastructure spending, according to Teguh P. Hartanto, an analyst at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta.

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), the nation’s biggest telephone company, advanced 5.1 percent to 7,150 rupiah. The company will propose a share buyback at its next shareholders meeting, Eddy Kurnia, a spokesman for Telkom, as the company is known, said by phone in Jakarta today.

PT Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), which runs Starbucks Corp. and Burger King Holdings Inc. outlets in Indonesia, gained 2.8 percent to 2,750 rupiah. The Indonesian retailer has allocated 350 billion rupiah for capital spending this year to add new stores, Bisnis Indonesia reported, citing Corporate Secretary Fetty Kwartati.

PT Astra International (ASII IJ), Indonesia’s biggest automotive retailer, gained 1.7 percent to 56,800 rupiah. Indonesia’s February domestic vehicle sales declined to 69,489 units from 73,866 units a month earlier, the company said, citing data from the nation’s automotive industries association.

PT Borneo Lumbung Energi & Metal (BORN IJ), the producer of hard-coking coal, advanced 6.5 percent to 1,650 rupiah, set for the steepest increase since Mar. 8. Borneo said it posted 2010 net income of 348.85 billion rupiah ($40 million) compared with a net loss of 99.78 billion rupiah a year earlier.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), Indonesia’s second- biggest bank by assets, gained 1.9 percent to 5,300 rupiah. President Director Sofyan Basir said in Jakarta today that 2010 net income may have risen to more than 9.33 trillion rupiah.

To contact the reporter on this story: Femi Adi in Jakarta

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 25 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Jumat, 25 Maret 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Kamis (24/3), IHSG ditutup menguat 55,41 poin (1,55%) ke level 3.611,64. Penguatan ini dipicu dirilisnya sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten yang mencatat kinerja di atas konsensus dan penguatan indeks regional. IHSG masih berpotensi untuk melanjutkan penguatannya, namun investor perlu mewaspadai aksi profit taking. Soalnya, candlestick IHSG sudah menyentuh garis upper bolinger band. Pada perdagangan Jumat (25/3), indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.556–3.651. Pantau BMRI, PTBA, dan JSMR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas
IHSG ditutup menguat 55,41 (1,56%) ke level 3611,64 kemarin. Seluruh sektor menguat kecuali sektor perdagangan yang melemah 0,47%. Asing membukukan net buying Rp 850 miliar. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak pada kisaran 3.571-3.632 dengan saham rekomendasi JSMR dan ADRO.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada perdagangan Jumat (25/3), secara teknikal indeks akan bergerak menguat pada kisaran 3.580-3.642. Perusahaan-perusahaan manufaktur Jepang yang mulai beroperasi serta ekonomi Jepang yang mulai aktif kembali menjadi sentimen positif indeks saham domestik. Apalagi, kondisi makroekonomi Jepang belakangan ini terus membaik. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan ASRI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI.

Resource Alam Indonesia Closing 2010 on a Convincing Note - OSK Nusadana

KKGI reported FY2010 earnings of IDR166bn, surging by a whopping 418% y-o-y,which was in line with our estimate.

Strong topline growth.
KKGI’s revenue climbed 138% y-o-y to IDR969bn, driven byhigher sales volume as well as average sales prices (ASP). 2010 coal sales volume totaled2.2m tonnes, up 133% from 0.9m tonnes in 2009. In addition, ASP also edged up toUSD48/tonne, 19% higher compared to the 2009 ASP of USD40/tonne. On the contrary, itsproduction cash cost declined by 16% y-o-y to USD24/tonne as the larger economies ofscale in production gave rise to better efficiency. However, we estimate that the cash costin 2011 will be higher due to a higher fuel price and larger production volume.

Outlook for 2011 remains promising.
With contribution from the newly producing blocksat its mine concession, we estimate that KKGI’s sales volume will jump 63% y-o-y to 3.5mtonnes in 2011. We also envisage the company’s ASP increasing by 17% y-o-y toUSD56/tonne given that the stubbornly high global coal price benchmark will give it moreleverage to garner higher contract prices.

Balance sheet position stays strong.
At the end of 2010, the company had a total cashbalance of IDR131bn. Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 40%, this will translate into adividend per share of IDR66, which in turn provides a dividend yield of 2%.

Reiterate our BUY call.
Given the strong 2010 results, we are maintaining our bullishstance on the counter. We retain our BUY call with a TP of IDR4,625, which offers a 26%upside potential. At present, the counter is still trading at an undemanding multiple of 9x2011f earnings compared to the industry’s consensus average of 15.4x.

Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI Conviction Buy - Trimegah Securities

Good 2010 Execution
MAP scintillating performance recorded in 2010 with 46% YoY growth in operatingprofit, followed by growth in net profit which grew 23% YoY. Excluding Harvey Nicholesand other assets writeoffs of Rp57bn, Net profit should have been Rp258bn,translating to 58% YoY growth.

Department Store Overhaul
MAPI's department stores has historically been a smaller contriutor to sales (27% of sales) while contributing 57% of total floor space operated by MAPI. The good newsis that the worst should be over for Dept Store business unit. MAPI had renovatedtheir department stores in 2010 to implement a new zoning and product mix strategy,leading to a higher per sqm productivity sales. Past experiments have shown 20%improved productivity. This potentially adds Rp300bn of topline for MAPI.

F&B Drives Margin Expansion
Management is targeting 20% sales growth driven by 35% increase or 300 new stores.MAPI plans to open 200 specialty stores in 2011, 150 of which are shoes (KIDSStation, Payless, etc) and another 80 F&B stores (Starbucks, Burger King, DominoPizza). The F&B expansion will drive F&B floor space area for total MAPI portfoliofrom 7% in 2010 to 10% in 2011, driving margins up as F&B contributes 60%-65%GPM, higher than MAPI portfolio average of 50%. Increased in economics of scalefor the F&B business will drive fix cost per unit down. Our channel checks confirmthat MAPI's F&B unit is still running loss at the net level. This turnaround in profitabilitywill contribute to significant bottom line contribution for MAPI.

Preying on Credit Card Partnerships
MAPI is famous for its bargaining position with retail space owners, able to squeezeanother 50bps of savings on a per sqm rental for its portfolio of floor space from2009 to 2010. MAPI is next monetizing its barganing power with bank credit carddivisions, as MAPI come to find out 70% of credit card users who shops in MAPIleaves behind outstanding credit which gives banks profit. MAPI is monetizing itsbargaining power with banks, and is successful in reducing marekting expense from>1.5% to sales to 1.0% to sales in 2010. However, company continue to guide 1.5%to sales marketing expense going forward to, of which 0.5% will be used for a moretargetting brand awareness campaigns in the hope to sustain 20% topline growth.

Spectacular Capital Management
Apart from sales and margins mix, the company has improved its capital managementas well. MAPI has engaged consultants and implemented a more streamlined inventorystrategy, leading to a significant decline in inventory days, from 200days in 2009 to168days in 2010. This has freed up 170bn in cash for 2010, and potentially anotherRp40bn for working cap expansion every year going forward. This is driving fasterdeleveraging for MAPI, turning it into a net cash company in the next 2 years (by2012). Net gearing continue to improve towards 0.2x in a few years. Interestexpense for 2010 is Rp123bn, making up >3% of sales and >50% of net profit

Valuation & Recommendation
We adjusted our SSG, GPM margins and capital management assumptions in ourmodel, rasing our TP for MAPI from Rp2850/shr to Rp3278/shr, representing 23%upside. The TP also reflects 16.3x 2011 PE, in the back of 66% EPSg vs, retaileraverage 15.8x 2011 PE in the back of 27% EPSg. Currently, MAPI is our convictionBUY for the retail & consumer space.

Mitra Adiperkasa Mainly in Line - OSK Nusadana

As envisaged.
Net profits surged 22.6% y-o-y to IDR201bn in FY10, backed by a 15% y-o-y growth in revenue to IDR4.7trn. Gross margin expanded by 40bps to 50.4%, driven byMAPI’s policy of directing its new store expansion to the higher yielding segments. Some59% of the 40,595 new retail outlets added this year are specialty stores and F&B outlets.As such, almost 70% of MAPI’s revenue was contributed from these two segments, wheregross margin can reach as high as 40%-45% from specialty stores and 60%-65% fromF&B outlets, compared to 28% from department stores.

Strategic efforts pay off.
FY10 operating margin also expanded strongly to 9.5% from7.5% previously, helped by: i) the company’s astute move to collaborative its marketingstrategies with local banks, which cut down its advertising cost by 10bps to 1.2% of sales;ii) cost savings from letting go of two underperforming brands this year (Harvey Nichols
andArmani); and iii) having more stores enables the company to meet its principal’s quota,which allowed it to source for more goods and materials locally, and hence saving onfreight costs in the F&B division (for stores like Starbucks or Burger King). This will continueto bolster MAPI’s cash flow from operating activities at IDR770bn for FY10, doubling fromIDR270bn in FY09.

Expansion driven margin.
This year, MAPI will add around 40,000sq m in retail outlets. Itscapex for FY11f is estimated at IDR350-400bn as the expansion plan does not include anew department store. A third of the new stores will be outside Java and will be financed byinternal funds. If required, the company can raise more loans considering its current netgearing of 0.5x compared with at 0.7x in FY09 after bringing down its interest bearing debtsto IDR955bn by 14.7% y-o-y.

Maintain BUY, TP IDR2,925.
We remain positive on company’s future outlook, as it tapsinto the middle segment of the market, which comprises more than 50% of Indonesia’spopulation. Maintain BUY, with our target price of Rp2,925, which puts the counter at17.1x-12.9x 2011f-12f PE

CPO futures continue downtrend - Busniness Times

CPO

CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended lower for the fourth consecutive day yesterday tracking a weakening global trend, dealers said.

At the close, April 2011 fell RM24 to RM3,323 per tonne, May 2011 and June 2011 fell RM36 each to RM3,292 and RM3,270 respectively, while July 2011 went down to RM38 to close at RM3,255 per tonne.

Turnover rose to 45,341 lots from 26,032 lots on Wednesday while open interest decreased to 92,967 contracts from 93,157 contracts previously.

On the physical market, April South fell by RM30 to RM3,350 per tonne. - Bernama

RUBBER

MALAYSIAN rubber prices finished higher for the fourth consecutive day yesterday following the uptrend in the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (Tocom), dealers said.

The Malaysian Rubber Board's noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 went up 25 sen to 1,527.50 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk improved 26.5 sen to 1,018.00 sen per kg.

The unofficial sellers' closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 increased 22 sen to 1,539.0 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk rose 22 sen to 1,029.0 sen per kg. - Bernama

OIL

LONDON: Oil prices dipped yesterday in London, weighed down by Portugal's debt crisis, but rose in New York thanks to unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, analysts said.

Brent North Sea crude for delivery in May inched down one cent to US$115.56 a barrel in London deals. However New York's main contract, light sweet crude for May, rose 78 cents to US$106.51 per barrel.

"The debt crisis in Portugal is likely to weigh on oil only briefly... given the numerous supportive factors," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

"Besides the war in Libya and the ongoing unrest in other Arab countries, yesterday's inventory data from the US Department of Energy have given tailwind to oil prices... petrol stocks surprisingly fell by a sharp 5.3 million barrels, despite higher refinery utilisation." - AFP

Kamis, 24 Maret 2011

Sesi II IHSG ditutup melompat 1,56% tembus 3.600 - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) ditutup melompat 55,41 poin atau 1,56% menembus level 3.600 ke posisi 3.611,64 sore ini dari level penutupan kemarin sore di 3.556,23.

IHSG bergerak pada rentang 3.551,42 - 3.611,92.

Dari 422 saham perusahaan yang menopang indeks, sebanyak 156 di antaranya menguat, 62 lainnya tertekan dan 204 sisanya tidak bergerak.

Saham Telekomunikasi Indonesia memotori penguatan indeks sore ini dengan mengontribusi positif sebesar 8,35 poin, disusul oleh Astra International 4,55 poin, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa 3,70 poin, dan Bank Rakyat Indonesia 2,89 poin.

Sejumlah saham yang menahan penguatan indeks lebih lanjut dengan mengontribusi negatif adalah Perusahaan Gas Negara sebesar 0,72 poin, lalu Indosat 0,64 poin, United Tractors 0,59 poin, dan Bank Mega 0,56 poin.

Sebanyak delapan dari sembilan indeks sektoral yang ada di BEI memberikan kontribusi positif dipimpin oleh keuangan sebesar 29,09%, infrastruktur dan utilisasi 19,82%, pertambangan 16,32%, industri kimia dasar 15,15%, aneka industri 9,48%, consumer goods 5,09%, konstruksi dan properti 3,64%, dan pertanian 2,95%.

Indeks BISNIS-27 juga ditutup naik 6,32 poin atau 2,04% ke posisi 315,91 dari level 309,59 kemarin sore. BISNIS-27 bergerak pada kisaran 308,69 - 315,94.

GJTL FY10 sales outstrips US$1 bio - Insider Stories

Indonesia's largest tire maker PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk (GJTL) increased net sales in 2010 to IDR9.85 trillion, up 24.2% from IDR7.94 trillion in 2009.
Sales volumes in all business segment rose significantly as the domestic market experienced strong growth and the export market normalized after the global automotive crisis.

In a press statement obtained by Insider Stories today, the launch of new products, such as the Champiro Eco, an Euro 2012 Eco Compliant tire, and Savero Komodo Extreme for Off Road travel and sports, proved to be very well received by the markets.

Gross profit inched up 12.4% to IDR1.94 trillion even as the 2010 gross margin at 19.7% was slightly lower than 23% in 2009, but still strong on a historical basis. Margins came under pressure in 4Q10 as natural rubber and other raw materials increased in pricing.

On the operating level, EBITDA reached US$181 million from US$142 million in the previous year as the expansion programs in the radial and motorcycle tire segments start to commence commercial production.

Net income decreased slightly to IDR831 billion from IDR905 billion in 2009, due to a lower gain of a IDR487 billion in foreign exchange related to our US$ denominated bonds over the previous year.

Medco 2010 Profit Surges 332% - The Indonesia Today

Oil and gas company PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) posted net profit of US$83.06 million in 2010, surged 332% from Rp19.23 million in 2009.

The profit jump was mainly supported by higher sales and gain from asset sales. The company recorded net earning per share (EPS) of US$0,0282 compared to US$0,0065 a year earlier.

Sales and other operating revenue increased 39% to US$929.85 million from US$667.8 million in 2009. Net sales of oil and gas totaled US$569.39 million, higher than US$470.21 million in previous year.

Cost of sales and other direct cost totaled US$173.27 million, then the company booked operating profit of US$114.49 million, a 59% rise from US$72.19 million a year earlier.

The company also booked gain on disposal of subsidiaries of US$250.73 million, helping it booked other income of US$101.34 million. In 2009, the company booked other charges of US$21.64 million.

As of December 31, 2010, Medco's assets totaled US$2.28 billion while liability amounted US$1.46 billion. It has cash and cash equivalents of US$178.86 million.

Newmont Terancam Ditutup, 4.000 Pekerja Mulai Ketar-ketir - Detikfinance

Mataram - Sebanyak 4.000 karyawan PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT) mulai resah, begitu mengetahui rencana penutupan operasional tambang oleh Pemkab Sumbawa Barat mulai 19 April. Mereka mengaku sebagai pihak yang terkena dampak pertama kali jika penutupan itu benar-benar terjadi.

"Kami para pekerja mengetahui rencana penutupan itu hari ini. Jujur saja, hampir semua kami sudah mulai resah," kata Irwan Gozali, Sekretaris Serikat Pekerja PTNNT pada detikFinance melalui sambungan telepon, Kamis (24/3/2011) petang.

Ia mengungkapkan, sepanjang hari ini ketika karyawan berkumpul istirahat dan makan siang di lokasi tambang Batu Hijau, pembicaraan mereka didominasi ancaman penutupan operasional tambang.

"Psikologis kami mulai terganggu saat bekerja. Kami tidak tenang. Tapi kami belum tahu dampaknya secara internal perusahaan," katanya.

Karyawan PTNNT saat ini kata Irwan, mencapai 4.000 orang. Selain mereka, di lokasi tambang juga bekerja karyawan rekanan PTNNT yang jumlahnya tak kurang dari 3.000 orang.

Yang membuat karyawan kian resah, Pemkab Sumbawa Barat selalu merealisasikan ancamannya, kendatipun banyak pihak yang menyebut Pemkab tak memiliki landasan hukum.

Januari lalu, Pemkab Sumbawa Barat mengerahkan Polisi Pamong Praja di Pelabuhan Khusus PTNNT untuk menghentikan pengapalan konsentrat. Dikritik berbagai kalangan, Pemkab bergeming. Penghentian berlangsung sepekan, Newmont merugi tak kurang US$ 21 juta.

Serikat Pekerja kata Irwan tak menyalahkan niat Pemkab Sumbawa Barat ingin memiliki 7% saham divestasi tahun 2010. Selain itu adalah amanat Kontrak Karya PTNNT, pekerja memahami kalau pemerintah daerah juga memiliki hak untuk membeli.

"Kami hanya ingin itu dilakukan secara profesional. Kan ada mekanisme dan aturan. Silahkan itu dinegosiasi dan dikomunikasikan. Tapi jangan kami sebagai pekerja yang dikorbankan," pintanya.

Kamis siang, Serikat Pekerja telah menyurati Pemkab, menyampaikan keresahan karyawan. Pekerja juga memandang masalah divestasi saat ini urusan internal pemerintah daerah dan pemerintah pusat.

"Kami hanya ingin pemerintah daerah bersikap adil terhadap masalah divestasi ini," ujar Irwan.

Dalam surat juga disebutkan kerugian-kerugian yang mungkin terjadi jika operasional PTNNT benar-benar dihentikan. Diantaranya adalah kerugian pengembangan masyarakat, pembayaran pajak dan royalti, termasuk juga memengarugi kontrak-kontrak korporasi dengan perusahaan lokal di Sumbawa Barat.

Seperti diketahui, PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara telah menerima surat dari KSB (Kabupaten Sumbawa Barat) soal ancaman tersebut. Newmont dan para pemegang saham asing kecewa dengan surat ancaman Bupati Sumbawa Barat yang akan menghentikan operasi Newmont mulai 19 April 2011 jika keinginan membeli 7% saham divestasi Newmont tak dikabulkan pemerintah.

Padahal pemerintah pusat sebagaimana ditegaskan Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo menegaskan pemerintah pusat akan tetap mengambil 7% jatah divestasi terakhir.

Kesuai kontrak karya, pemegang saham asing NNT diwajibkan mendivestasikan 51% saham asingnya yang berjumlah 80% itu ke pihak nasional dengan jadwal paling akhir seharusnya Maret 2010. Sebanyak 20% sudah dikuasai nasional melalui Pukuafu, sehingga NNT mesti mendivestasikan 31% sisanya.

Jadwal divestasi 31% saham NNT sesuai kontrak karya adalah 3% Maret 2006, 7% Maret 2007, 7% Maret 2008, 7% Maret 2009, dan 7% Maret 2010. Namun semua jadwal divestasi itu mundur, dan kini tersisa 7% saham untuk jatah divestasi tahun 2010.

PT Multi Daerah Bersaing (MDB) sudah menguasai 24% saham divestasi dan berniat memiliki 7% divestasi 2010 sisanya. MDB merupakan perusahaan patungan PT Daerah Maju Bersama (DMB) dengan PT Multicapital, yang merupakan anak usaha Grup Bakrie. Sementara, DMB merupakan BUMD milik tiga pemda, yakni Pemda Sumbawa, Pemda Sumbawa Barat, dan Pemda NTB.

Resource Alam earning soars 418% - Insider Stories

Thermal coal producer PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI), part of Rain Group, posted a 418.84% jump in net income last year as a result of a steep jump in net sales.

In a financial statement published today, Resource Alam booked Rp166.03 billion net income or Rp166 per share last year from Rp32 billion or Rp128 per share in the previous year.

Operating profit surged 390.75% to Rp220.74 billion from Rp44.98 billion, while gross profit augmented 233.24% to Rp476.84 billion from Rp143.09 billion.
Resource Alam's net sales soared 138.39% to Rp969.35 billion from Rp406.62 billion.
The company is eyeing to produce 3.5 million tons of coal in 2011, up 58% year on year. In 2010, the company has sold 2.2 million tons of coal.

Resource Alam expects Rp1.89 trillion revenue this year, a 95.4% increase from 2010 and net profit of Rp413 billion in 2011, a 138.9% rise from last year, assuming average coal selling price of US$59.8 per ton or 24.3% increase YoY.
About 95.4% of its coal was exported with China and India as the main destination, counting for 87.9% of its total sales.

Resource Alam plans to announce one coal asset acquisition within this year. Beside that, KKGI also consider to diversify its business to other mining business like iron ore, bauxite and manganese that have similar model to coal mine.

Total capital expenditure in 2011 is expected around Rp90 billion, where Rp40 billion allocated to its contractor and Rp50 billion is equity portion especially for buying new heavy equipment, and expand its transportation infrastructure.
KKGI has locked 1.7 million tons of coal volume in 1 year contract with average selling price of US$61 per ton FOB vessel, while allocates around 1 million tons to spot market. And the remaining 800,000 tons is allocated to domestic market, supplying to PLN. Around 500,000 tons coal for PLN is priced at US$ 47/ton FOB barge.

Bangun Hotel di Bali dan Jakarta, Laba APLN Melonjak 588% di 2010 - TopSaham

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk membukukan laba bersih Rp 242 miliar naik dari rencana sebelumnya senilai Rp 230 miliar. Demikian disampaikan Handaka Sentosa, Vice President perseroan di Jakarta Kamis (24/4).

Di 2010 perseroan juga berhasil meningkatkan penjualan dan pendapatan usaha sebesar Rp 1,94 triliun naik dua kali lipat dari tahun 2009 Rp 856 miliar.

Di 2011 ini, kata Handaka, perseroan akan terus menambah proyek-proyek barunya, yakni penambahan lahan dan mencari lokasi-lokasi strategis. Juga akan mengembangkan hotel di Central Park, saat sedang mengincar hotel di Jakarta dan Bali. Pendanaan hotel di Jakarta dan Bali akan mencari pendanaan dari bank. Salah satu diantarnya adalah dari Deutche Bank.

Mandom Targets 9% Revenue Growth This Year - The Indonesia Today

PT Mandom Indonesia Tbk (TCID) targets to book revenue of Rp1.6 trillion this year, a 9% rise from Rp1.47 trillion in 2010.

It also expects to book net profit of Rp132 billion, a slight increase from Rp131.4 billion last year.

The company said it sets dividend payment of Rp340 per share for 2010 profit and will increase dividend payment to Rp360 per share for 2011 profit.

Mandom has three production bases; Japan, Indonesia and China. In China, the company's production runs under the management of Zhongshang City Rida Fine Chemical in which Mandom Corporation Japan (MCJ) holds 66.75% ownership.

Currently MCJ holds 60.84% stakeholding in Mandom Indonesia. Other shareholders are PT Asia Jaya Paramita (11.32%), Wilson Suryadi Sutan (5.03%), BP2 Singapore/Fully Taxable (2.34%) and BBH Boston 3/A Abeerdeen Indonesia (2.08%).

Tower Bersama FY10 earning up 35% - Insider Stories

Telecommunication tower provider PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) today reported a 35.76% jump in net income last year as a result of soaring revenue.
In an official financial statement published today, Tower Bersama, controlled by Indonesian private equity Saratoga Capital, posted IDR326.73 billion last year from IDR240.66 billion in the previous year.
Income from operation also skyrocketed 95.52% to IDR486.29 billion from IDR248.71 billion. However, the company's operating margin slightly lowered to 72.43% from 72.85%.

With 72.43% operating margin, the newly listed Tower Bersama is one of the most profitable publicly listed companies at Indonesia Stock Exchange.
A 76.37% increase in operating expenses haven't eroded Tower Bersama's gross profit which made a 92.35% surge to IDR573.16 billion from IDR297.97 billion.
Tower Bersama posted a 96.66% rise in revenue to IDR671.36 billion from IDR341.38 billion. However, the growth of cost of goods revenue was 126.19%, higher than the revenue growth.

BJBR Venturing beyond its sphere - OSK Nusadana

Initiating coverage with a Buy.
We initiate coverage on Bank Jabar Banten(BJB) with a Buy rating and a two-stage DDM-derived price target of IDR1,400,implying 24% upside. Recent underperformance has made valuation attractive fora growing bank that has ample liquidity, decent asset quality, sufficient losscoverage, adequate capital and a well-planned strategy.
Progressing beyond its home borders.

BJB‟s growth story involves two
strategic avenues of branching out of its vibrant domain markets of West Javaand Banten (WJ&B) to become a national outfit and expanding its capabilitiesfrom relying heavily on a consumer-centric model (lending to Governmentsalaried employees) to micro and commercial lending. We think the plan isimperative to ensure continuation and diversification of growth, given that BJB isalready lending to 90% of Government employees in WJ&B. As it looks beyondWJ&B, its provincial dominance is unlikely to be disoriented.

Has ample fuel and sensible plan for the new roads.
Developing franchiseand riding the learning curves in new geographies are key strategic challengeswhereas its maturity gap could exert downward NIM pressure in rising rateenvironment. However it is ready for the journey, in our view: BJB is one of themost liquid among its regional development and commercial bank peers withLDR of 73.2%, sufficient loan loss cover at 140% and adequate capital with 23%CAR. Expansion strategy seems to be reasonably laid out.

Valuation has turned appealing.
Post a strong post-IPO performance in 2H10,BJB has underperformed the market by 17% YTD. Valuation has now turnedappealing with the stock now trading at 2011f 9.6x EPS or 2.0x BV and we thinkthe risk-reward balance at current level is favourable. We expect BJB to poststable ROAEs at above 21% with earnings growth averaging 18% in 2011-13f.Key risks: expansion difficulties in newly ventured markets leading todeterioration in asset quality, worse than expected NIM compression

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk On Attractive Spot - AAA Securities

SummaryBased on ANTM’s unaudited FY10 results, revenue growth is relatively flat, butnet profit jumped 175% yoy, mostly due to declining cost by 22% yoy. The grossprofit margin increased significantly to 33.4% in FY10 (from 13.75% in FY09). Thecompany’s current stock price is attractive at this moment, as our TP offers 11%upside potential. As such, we upgrade our recommendation from HOLD to BUY.

 Revenue is relatively flat; Net profit jumped 175% yoy
ANTM reported unaudited FY10 result with surprisingly robust figures. Net incomejumped 175% yoy to Rp1,663 billion, beating our and consensus estimations. Thestunning jump in net profit was driven by lower than anticipated COGS, a factor thatwe admit, made our FY10 forecast on net profit at Rp 1,373 billion, deviated by aboutRp2 trillion lower. COGS down by 22% yoy, constituting only 89% of our estimates.Management said that lower COGS was caused by the declining metal trading activityas it has low margin. Currently we are still waiting for full year meeting to have clearview whether company’s decision to stop metal trading activity should sustain goingforward. Audited financial statement report will be on public by mid of March.

 COGS Declined by 22% as Metal Trading Activity Halted
While we admit that our forecast on COGS was missed, unaudited revenue was about100% with our estimate. Revenue run at a flat rate, 0% yoy growth to Rp8,745 billion.On quarterly basis, revenue up 113% yoy on higher ASP on ferronickel of +7% qoq ;gold +13% qoq and silver +13% yoy, while volume were recorded mix with ferronickel -3% qoq ; gold +20% yoy and silver +14% yoy. ANTM’s biggest revenue contributor isstill ferronickel (42%) followed by nickel ore (27%), gold (10%), silver and other metalby 21%.

 Rely on Gold in 2011
Moving into 2011, in conjuction with current gold prices which already reached itsnew record plus bad weather that is predicted to come to an end in 1Q11, ANTM’sshould have better gold production. For 2011, we believe gold will be the key factorto propel ANTM’s profitability to a higher level. Meanwhile the biggest contributor,ferronickel, will apparently remain flat due to an overhaul in its ferronickel factories,Feni II and unsustainable nickel spot price.

 Valuation, Upgrade to BUY
Company’s current share price is attractive at this moment, giving more than 10%discount from its FY11F fair value at Rp2,500. We assign fair value of ANTM atRp2,500 using blended valuation method to capture short and long term exposure oncompany’s fundamental. The stock currently is traded at 11.9x vs our implied TP at13.2x, historically the stock is traded at PE 15x. On that basis, we change our viewfrom HOLD to BUY

Indosiar Karya (HOLD, TP IDR850): FY10 Results Review, Lower Than Anticipated - OSK Nusadana

· Lower than estimated. IDKM’s FY10 net profit fell to IDR8bn (-9.1% y-o-y) while sales declined to IDR749bn (-12.2% y-o-y), coming in below our expectation due mainly to weak financial performance in the fourth quarter last year. Notably, 4Q10 sales totaled only IDR142bn (-10.6% q-o-q) while the 4Q10 net loss increased to IDR19bn (-159.4% q-o-q).

· Wrong program strategy in 4Q10. IDKM attempted to copy the success of Trans Group by airing Indonesia’s Got Talent, a talent show program, at prime time. The company also continued to broadcast Take Celebrity Out, a reality program whose prime time ratings have been on the decline. This strategy backfired as the program’s audience rating fell to 8.9% in December 2010 from 9.3% in September 2010.

· Performance improved early this year. IDKM’s performance has been improving since its management switched program strategy early this year. The company is now broadcasting more quality TV drama series on prime time instead of games and reality shows. IDKM has an exclusive agreement with one of the most reputable production houses to produce popular drama series.

· Great strides in audience rating improvement in 1Q11. The airing of better TV programs has translated into higher audience ratings, significantly boosting IDKM’s audience rating from 8.9% in December last year to 12.5% in the first week of March. Indosiar is now ranked third in terms of single TV audience rating, after SCTV. This will draw more advertisements to the TV station.

· Maintain HOLD. We maintain our forecast and recommendation as we believe IDKM’s financial performance will turn around this year. As the stock is trading at 18.7x-14.9x 2011f-12f, we maintain a HOLD with a target price of IDR850.

Mitra Adiperkasa (BUY, TP IDR2,925), FY10 Results Review, Mainly in Line - OSK Nusadana

· As envisaged. Net profits surged 22.6% y-o-y to IDR201bn in FY10, backed by a 15% y-o-y growth in revenue to IDR4.7trn. Gross margin expanded by 40bps to 50.4%, driven by MAPI’s policy of directing its new store expansion to the higher yielding segments. Some 59% of the 40,595 new retail outlets added this year are specialty stores and F&B outlets. As such, almost 70% of MAPI’s revenue was contributed from these two segments, where gross margin can reach as high as 40%-45% from specialty stores and 60%-65% from F&B outlets, compared to 28% from department stores.

· Strategic efforts pay off. FY10 operating margin also expanded strongly to 9.5% from 7.5% previously, helped by: i) the company’s astute move to collaborative its marketing strategies with local banks, which cut down its advertising cost by 10bps to 1.2% of sales; ii) cost savings from letting go of two underperforming brands this year (Harvey Nichols and Armani); and iii) having more stores enables the company to meet its principal’s quota, which allowed it to source for more goods and materials locally, and hence saving on freight costs in the F&B division (for stores like Starbucks or Burger King). This will continue to bolster MAPI’s cash flow from operating activities at IDR770bn for FY10, doubling from IDR270bn in FY09.

· Expansion driven margin. This year, MAPI will add around 40,000sq m in retail outlets. Its capex for FY11f is estimated at IDR350-400bn as the expansion plan does not include a new department store. A third of the new stores will be outside Java and will be financed by internal funds. If required, the company can raise more loans considering its current net gearing of 0.5x compared with at 0.7x in FY09 after bringing down its interest bearing debts to IDR955bn by 14.7% y-o-y.

· Maintain BUY, TP IDR2,925. We remain positive on company’s future outlook, as it taps into the middle segment of the market, which comprises more than 50% of Indonesia’s population. Maintain BUY, with our target price of Rp2,925, which puts the counter at 17.1x-12.9x 2011f-12f PE.

Indonesia Banks Sector - Government may speed up its new haircut regulation - Credit Suisse

● Kontan (21 March 2011) stated that the government is willing to accelerate the completion of the Settlement of State’s Receivables law draft. Under the new law, the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) receivables will no longer be settled under the State’s Receivable Management Committee (PUPN) and can be settled under corporation mechanism.

● We estimate the total size of written-off loans to be around 53% of the BMRI and BBNI FY11E book value and around 17% of the BBRI FY11E book value.

● If we assume 80% discount, with only 20% written back, the total size of the write back is equivalent to 11% of BMRI and BBNI FY11E book value and 3% of BBRI FY11E book value. The write back is also equivalent to 51% of the BMRI FY11E earnings, 75% of the BBNI FY11E earnings and 13% of BBRI FY11E earnings.

● We continue to prefer BMRI and BBNI as our two top picks for Indonesia. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on BMRI and BBNI. We maintain our target price of Rp8400 for BMRI and of Rp4300 for BBNI.

BUMI IJ - watch out for stock action - Nomura Indonesia

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ – BUY) share price breaks up from its consolidation pattern at Rp2900-Rp3125 is now hovering around Rp3175/sh. The next resistant is at Rp3250 and then Rp3500/sh.

Given the supportive fundamentals, we see more upside risk than downside risk. 1) Coal price will benefit from Japan’s effort to ramp up its power plant utilization. 2) Vallar (VAA LN) has completed its share swap with BUMI IJ and will complete the Berau transaction around 8 April 2011. 3) Bumi trades at discount to peers.