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Selasa, 22 Maret 2011

Potential short-term weakness - by Erindra Krisnawan (ADRO IJ / ADRO.JK, TRADING SELL - Downgraded, Rp2,325 - Tgt. Rp2,025, Coal Mining) - CIMB

We downgrade ADRO to Trading Sell from Outperform and reduce our price target to Rp2,025 (now based on sector P/E average 12.7x) from Rp3,300 (NAV-based). ADRO trades at 14.6x CY11 P/E, a 15% premium to the sector average. While a long-term valuation premium may still be warranted, we see short-term price weakness on the back of a potential earnings disappointment in 4Q10. While our unchanged 2010-11 earnings estimates have captured such a possibility, consensus estimates have not (our 2010-11 estimates are 16% and 5% below consensus). We therefore expect consensus estimates to drop following the release of 4Q10 earnings. With our view of a slowdown in coal demand, we believe the market will shift its focus to its earnings risks from a "top-down" view on coal prices.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 14.19

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