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Rabu, 23 Maret 2011

Bank Rakyat Indonesia: (Buy; Rp5,200; TP Rp6,950; BBRI IJ) BBRI seeks to lower dividend payout - DBS Vickers

BBRI said that it planned to slash its dividend payout to 5% this year from 30% last year to lift its capital base and spur growth. CEO Sofyan Basir said that lifting its capital adequacy ratio, which is currently the lowest among the major Indonesian banks at 12-13%, via a rights issue was not an option as it would dilute the 51% stake held by the government. The other option to raise new capital was by issuing up to Rp5tr in subordinated debt this year, he said.

We view this positively as lower dividends would increase higher reinvestment of its returns internally without relying too much on external funding. As at end-3Q10, total CAR stood at 13.5%. With loan growth expected at 18% for FY10, total CAR would further decline nearer to the 13% mark at the end of FY10. We understand that management would consider raising the subordinated debt should the total CAR approach closer to 12%.

BBRI (Buy, TP Rp6,950) remains our top pick providing 34% upside. We like BBRI’s micro lending model, which we believe remains defensive especially with its focus on rural areas, and as it steps up its presence in the traditional markets via Teras BRI units. BBRI is due to release its 4Q10/FY10 results end of Mar. Unaudited net profit (as published on the BI website) stood at Rp9.03bn is in line with our estimates.

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