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Kamis, 24 Maret 2011

Flash Note on Astra Agro Lestari - NISP Sekuritas

Lack of Catalyst

· Results In line with consensus. Supported by the rise in average CPO selling price and sales volume in 2010, AALI successfully booked a revenue increase of 19.1% to Rp8.8tn from Rp7.4tn in 2009. In 2010, AALI’s CPO was traded at an average of Rp7,027 per/kg, represented an increase of 12.6% compared to the same period last year, while CPO sales volume went up by 5.2% to 1.11mn tons. AALI’s 2010 net income of Rp2tn was inline at 2.6% above consensus.

· CPO Production as of February 2011 reached 174,596 tons. As of February 2011, CPO production reached 174,596 tons, an increase of 23.7% YoY compared to the same period last year. The increase in CPO production was mainly derived from the rise in nucleus and plasma FFB production. During this period, total FFB production grew by 18.4% YoY to 641,053 tons from 541,366 tons in the same period last year.

· Same target growth as last year. AALI is currently targeting its CPO production growth for 2011 to be at least the same as last year at 2.8% given its maturity profile. In the mean time, the company is also focusing on re-planting some of its aging estate. On the first two months of 2011, AALI has replanted 124 hectare on the existing plantation and added 82 hectare new planting.

· The CPO price volatility and unpredictable weather are major risks to our view. With relatively flat expected CPO production, the company’s performance hinges on the mercy of the volatility of CPO prices, which in turn is also affected by the recent unpredictable weather pattern. So far, average CPO price ( Rotterdam ) stood at US$1,248/ton YTD, or 38% and 12% higher than the 2010 and 4Q10 average CPO price of US$903/ton and US$1,111/ton respectively. Nevertheless, of late, CPO price has declined from its recent high of US$1,330/ton in mid February to around US$1,125/ton currently. Going forward, CPO price is not expected to strengthen in near term as seasonal high production kicks in.

· Trading at premium. AALI is currently trading at consensus of 2011 PER 13.0x at premium to the average sector valuation of PER 11.7x.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.32

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