Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 26 Februari 2011

Fitch Revises Indonesia's Outlook to Positive - The Indonesia Today

Fitch Ratings has on Thursday (February 24) revised Indonesia's outlooks to positive from stable. Its ratings have been affirmed at Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default (IDR) 'BB+', Short-term foreign currency IDR 'B' and Country Ceiling 'BBB-'.

"The positive outlook reflects Fitch's view that Indonesia's favourable macroeconomic prospects are likely to see the credit profile strengthen further over the next twelve to eighteen months, despite near-term risks from inflation and potentially volatile capital flows," said Andrew Colquhoun, Senior Director and Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings at Fitch. "Faster progress in tackling long-standing weaknesses in economic and credit fundamentals including the low tax take, infrastructure deficiencies and corruption, would further support the case for an upgrade."

Indonesia's economy grew 6.1% in 2010 after a mild slowdown to 4.6% in 2009, consolidating the five-year average at 5.7% pa, well ahead of the 'BB' and 'BBB' range medians (each 3.6% pa). Growth is being driven by domestic demand, supported by a pick-up in the investment rate to 32.5% of GDP in 2010, up from 24.9% in 2007.

Indonesia's growth has not been accompanied by the emergence of potentially risky external imbalances - rising savings rates have largely matched rising investment, and the economy has run a modest current account surplus since 1998. Moreover, investment is well-diversified across the industrial and service sectors as well as the traditionally-important mining industry.

Indonesia needs faster growth to narrow the income differential with rated peers; average income of USD3,000 in 2010 compares poorly with the 'BB' median of USD5,400 and the 'BBB' median of USD7,700.

Inflation poses a near-term risk to economic prospects. CPI inflation of 7% at end-2010 exceeded Bank Indonesia's (BI) target range of 4%-6%. BI hiked its key policy rate in February to 6.75% from 6.5% and signalled its willingness to act more firmly to contain inflation expectations, while citing the role of food prices (36% of the basket and up 17.7% to end-December).

However, Indonesia has a history of higher and more volatile inflation than rated peers, while BI's focus on its inflation target has been tempered by caution over attracting excessive capital inflows. Fitch expects inflation will average 6.5% over 2011, but a more severe inflation shock than the agency expects that is sufficient to damage economic and financial stability would weaken the case for positive rating action.

Indonesia's gross government debt to GDP ratio fell again to 26% of GDP by end-2010, well below the 'BB' median of 41% and the 'BBB' median of 37%. The budget deficit came in at 0.6% in 2010, extending a run of low deficits below 2% since 2002 that has contributed to the debt ratio reduction.

The low revenue take (just 16% of GDP in 2010) continues to weigh on the ratings, although even the debt/revenue ratio is projected to drop from 163% at end-2010 to nearer the projected 'BBB' median of 126% by 2012. Nonetheless, low revenues diminish fiscal flexibility and constrain resources available for public investment, all of which weigh on the ratings.

Official foreign reserves rose to a record USD96.2bn by end-2010, worth some seven months of imports and up 46% on the end-2009 figure. FDI inflows were also strong in 2010 at USD9.8bn (1.4% of GDP). A long run of current account surpluses has helped take Indonesia's net external debt down to the 'BB' median of 9% of GDP.

Strengthening external liquidity supports the ratings, although portfolio capital inflows were a strong USD14bn in 2010, and any reversal in the event of a shift in investor sentiment could undo some of the improvement.

Long-standing weaknesses in economic and credit fundamentals including deficiencies in physical infrastructure and a high reported prevalence of corruption weigh on the ratings. Faster progress in tackling these would help secure Indonesia's prospects for sustained growth and would support the ratings. Indonesia's steady consolidation as a democracy leaves political stability as a rating strength relative to the 'BB' category.

Transaksi Tukar Guling Saham BUMI Dengan Vallar Plc Tuntas 28 Februari 2011

Transaksi tukar saham antara Bumi Resources dengan Vallar Plc yang dilakukan oleh Bakrie Brothers (BNBR) akan tuntas pada 28 Februari 2011.

Dalam skema tukar guling tersebut, Bakrie Brothers sepakat menukar 25% saham BUMI dengan 43% saham Vallar Plc. Jumlah saham BUMI yang ditukar setara dengan 5,2 miliar yang dihargai sebesar Rp 2.500.

Wall St rebounds from sell-off, but down for week - Reuters

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Friday, bouncing back from a three-day sell-off as oil prices stabilized, but unease over the Libyan rebellion could be enough to keep buying in check.

The S&P 500 lost 1.7 percent for the week, breaking a three-week streak of gains. Friday's bounce followed a late recovery Thursday that showed buyers were ready to support shares after a bout of selling.

Analysts have been calling for a correction in stocks, with the S&P 500 up 25.8 percent since the start of September. Much weaker-than-average volume on Friday cast doubt on stocks' ability to move higher.

"It's going to be a bumpy ride. I don't think it's just one big correction and we're out of it. I think we'll see multiple, small corrections over the next few months before the market can really decide what the end game in the Middle East is," said David Kelly, the chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds in New York.

Brent crude futures for April rose 78 cents to settle at $112.14 barrel, easing from a 2-1/2 -year high of $119.79 on Thursday after a source said Saudi Arabia raised its oil output following days of bloody unrest in fellow producer Libya.

As stocks rose, the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX .VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, dropped 9.9 percent to 19.22, falling below 20 after three days of sharp gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 61.95 points, or 0.51 percent, to end at 12,130.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX advanced 13.78 points, or 1.06 percent, to finish at 1,319.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 43.15 points, or 1.58 percent, to close at 2,781.05.

Volume was a low 7 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE Amex and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 8.47 billion.

For the week, the Dow lost 2.1 percent and the Nasdaq declined 1.9 percent. more ...

INCO FY10 net earning jumps 156.64% - Insider Stories

Nickel producer PT International Nickel Indonesia Tbk (INCO) today reported a 156.64% jump in net earning last year as sales increased 67.73% as well as higher average realized price.

In an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) today, INCO's net earning rose to US$438.36 million last year from US$170.42 million in the previous year.

Operating profit surged 157.19% to US$596.37 million from US$231.88 million, reflecting a hefty margin which rose to 46.72% from 30.47%. Gross margin jumped 154.84% to US$624.08 million from US$244.89 million.

Inco posted a 67.73% rise in sales to US$1.27 billion from US$760.95 million. Total nickel matte delivered in 2010 was 77,035 metric tons, a 13.7% higher than 67,782 metric tons nickel matte delivered in 2009. The average realized price was US$16,568 per metric ton, a 47.6% higher than US$11,227 per metric ton.

CPO futures rebound after two days of losses - Business Times


CRUDE palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed higher yesterday prompted by bargain hunting after two days of consecutive losses, a dealer said.

March 2011 rose RM59 to RM3,565 a tonne, April 2011 increased RM62 to RM3,542 while May 2011 and June 2011 added RM60 each to RM3,515 and RM3,495 a tonne, respectively.

Turnover fell to 29,810 lots from 48,704 lots on Thursday while open interest declined to 107,659 contracts from 108,551 previously.

On the physical market, March South rose RM100 to RM3,630 a tonne.


THE rubber market closed mixed yesterday taking cues from the weaker regional futures market, a dealer said.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 shed 10 sen to 1,632 sen while the latex-in-bulk rose 1 sen to 1,092 sen.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 decreased 8 sen to 1,628 sen while latex-in-bulk remained unchanged at 1,091.5 sen.


THE tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) fell by US$400 (US$1.00 = RM3.04) to close at US$31,550 per tonne yesterday on technical correction, dealers said.

They said the downtrend was merely a market correction after the sharp upward movement in the tin price on Thursday and also the high premium at US$890 per tonne.

"Despite the uptrend on the London Metal Exchange (LME), market players were reluctant to take positions after the sharp increase. Sellers dominated trading and pushed the price lower," a dealer said.

The tin price on the LME, which normally influences global prices, increased US$125 to settle at US$31,650 per tonne.

On the local front, turnover was higher at 40 tonnes compared to the 30 tonnes at Thursday's closing, with the participation of Japanese, European and local buyers.

At the opening bell, buyers bid for 10 tonnes while sellers offered 97 tonnes. The price differential between the KLTM and the LME narrowed to US$365 per tonne from Thursday's US$890 per tonne. - Bernama

Oil Prices in 'Blow Off' Top, but Still Likely to Move Higher - CNBC

Thursday's violent swings in oil prices put in a "blow off" top for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, and the market is in a neutral zone with a bias to the upside, said oil analyst Mike Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick, editor of Energy Overview newsletter, expects oil to rise next week, and says the first level of resistance will be $99.59 per barrel.

"You've got all the weak longs out of the market so the positions are now in stronger hands," he said. A "blow off" top comes after a sharp spike higher gives way to an almost immediate sell off, which is usually on heavy volume.

Oil was barely changed Friday from Thursday's closing level. It finished at $97.88 per barrel, up $0.60. But the price moved above $98 after Friday's close when the U.S. said it was planning sanctions against Libya and was closing its embassy operations.

Oil soared to $103.41 early Thursday, just beneath an important technical level of $103.69 per barrel. That is the 61.8 percent retracement level between oil's all time high of $147.27 and its 2009 low of $33.20.

Oil moved lower during the day Thursday and saw a violent $2 drop at the end of the day.

"From $88 up to $103, there are longs and short positions scattered all over the place, as a remnant of what happened in the last couple of sessions," he said.

"We've got the market back in the neutral zone where you have a precarious equal librium between $95 an $100 ... They need an additional cue before we can make a trend out of this," he said.

But Fitzpatrick sees the next move as a move higher, and the technical pivot point Monday will be $97.75.

"Additionally, the market was over the 10-, 40- and 200-day moving averages and that's an automatic buy signal," he said.

Medco Hentikan Kegiatan Eksplorasi di Libya - TopSaham

PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) menyatakan telah menghentikan sementara kegiatan eksplorasinya di Libya. Hal tersebut karena adanya konflik yang tengah terjadi di negara kaya minyak tersebut.

Manajemen Medco dalam pemberitahuan yang disampaikan ke bursa menjelaskan namun program dirilling yang direncanakan untuk 2010-2011 telah rampung dia lakukan. "Kita beruntung baru saja selesai menyelesaikan drilling program 2010-2011.

Perseroan mengoperasikan Area 47, Libya melalui anak usahanya Medco Internasional Venture Limited (MIVL).

Penundaan drilling untuk sumur baru ini diambil Medco karena kondisinya sudah tidak kondusif untuk dilakukan kegiatan operasional. Sejak awal terjadinya konflik, Medco mulai waspadai konflik yang terjadi di wilayah Libya untuk meminimalkan dampak terhadap kegiatan operasi perseroan di sana.

Lonsum FY10 margins keep rising - Insider Stories

Palm oil producer PT PP London Sumatra Indonesia Tbk (Lonsum) recorded a 46.1% increase in net income last year as sales rose 12.3%.

In a consolidated financial statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) last night, Lonsum posted Rp1.03 trillion net income or Rp151 per share last year from Rp707.5 billion or Rp105 per share.
Operating profit soared 37.4% to Rp1.39 trillion from Rp1.02 trillion, reflecting higher margin to 39% from 31.8%.

Gross profit also surged 27.4% to Rp1.77 trillion from Rp1.39 trillion. As a result, gross margin improved to 49.3% from 43.5%.
Sales advanced 12.3% to Rp3.59 trillion from Rp3.19 trillion due to higher commodities prices, mainly rubber and palm products, as well as higher sales volume of SumBio oil palm seeds.
CPO sales volume in 2010 decreased 5.8% to 352,437 tons compared to 374,134 tons in the previous year.

About 83% of the total CPO sales volume was sold to parent company, PT Salim Ivomas Pratama, which aims to set an IPO in June this year, increased from 41%.
Palm kernel products sales volume slumped 3.3% to 90,723 tons from 93,796 tons. Rubber sales volume fell 17.2% to 18,318 tons from 22,110 tons.

At end of December 2010, the total planted area for Nucleus is 101,705 ha, of which 79% is oil palm, 17% is rubber, with the balance coming from other crops. Planting program for Oil Palm was 1,815 ha, of which 1,090 ha was new planting and 725 ha was replanting.

Pasca-IPO, Agung Podomoro Land Akuisisi Tiga Proyek Properti - Media Indonesia

Setelah meluncurkan initial public offering atau IPO, PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APL) telah menuntaskan akuisisi tiga proyek properti. Ketiganya adalah Green Lake di Sunter Jakarta Utara, Green Permata di Ulujami Jakarta Selatan, dan Grand Taruma di Karawang Jawa Barat.

Prisca Batubara, Corporate Secretary APL, menjelaskan, Green Permata seluas 14 hektare dibeli perseroan senilai Rp195 miliar. "Pada minggu pertama, 120 unit telah terjual," ujarnya di Jakarta, Jumat (25/2).

Untuk Grand Taruma yang dibangun di atas lahan seluas 40 hektare telah dibeli perusahaan dengan harga Rp35 miliar. Tapi, kepemilikan APL di properti ini tidak 100% melainkan 90%. Sebagian dana IPO yakni sebesar Rp600 miliar digunakan untuk akuisisi tersebut.

Itu melengkapi delapan properti yang telah dimiliki APL sebelumnya. Kedelapan properti itu adalah Podomoro City, Senayan City, Kuningan City, Green Bay, Festival City Link, Gading Nias Residence, The Lavande, dan Lindeteves Center Trade.

Sejatinya, APL di tahun ini masih terus menembak sejumlah proyek properti lain di berbagai daerah. Karenanya, perusahaan telah menyediakan biaya ekspansi 2011 sebesar Rp1,5-2 triliun. "Dana ini berasal dari pinjaman, hasil penjualan, dan keuntungan," ujar Prisca.

Sayang, Prisca menolak memberi tahu proyek properti yang tengah dilirik perusahaan. Ia beralasan, bila diberitakan terlalu gencar, maka pemilik lahan akan menaikkan harga jual dan pemerintah mendongkrak nilai jual objek pajak tanah tersebut.

Yang pasti, ia berjanji akan memberi tahu bila proyek tersebut sudah pasti ada di tangan. Target penjualan APL tahun ini dipatok sebesar Rp4 triliun.

Akuisisi Perusahaan Batu Bara, OKAS Siapkan Rp130 M - Okezone

Right Issue Rp150 Miliar

PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk (OKAS) mengganggarkan dana sekira Rp120 miliar-Rp130 miliar untuk proses akuisisi perusahaan batu bara.

Perseroan menyebutkan dana untuk mengakuisisi nantinya akan diperoleh dari dana right issue yang ditargetkan akan selesai pada Juni 2011 proses right issue-nya. Adapun dana yang akan diperoleh dari right issue ini ditargetkan sekira Rp100 miliar-Rp150 miliar.

Hal ini disampaikan President Director/CEO OKAS, Dharma Djojonegoro kala ditemui dalam acara Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) OKAS, Jakarta, Jumat(25/2/2011).

"Untuk proses akuisisi sudah berjalan, tunggu right issue yang tinggal menunggu dari Bapepam-LK. Target dana sekira Rp100 miliar-Rp150 miliar, dan rencana mayoritas dari penggunaan dana right issue ini kira-kira sebesar Rp120 miliar-Rp130 miliar untuk akuisisi sementara sisanya untuk working capital," ungkapnya.

Perseroan diketahui akan mengakuisisi perusahaan ini sebesar 51-58 persen saham PT Raja Kutai Baru Makmur. Di sisi lain, perseroan tengah jajaki proses untuk mengakuisisi perusahaan tambang batu bara lainnya dengan nilai sekira USD50 juta-USD100 juta, pada akhir tahun ini.

Dharma mengemukakan bahwa pihaknya siap untuk melakukan proses akuisisi. "kalau dana kita sih siap saja. Biasanya itu dari pinjaman dari bank tapi tergantung kas internal dan ketersediaan aset," pungkasnya.

IndoAgri FY10 profit after tax falls 7.2% - Insider Stories

Indofood Agri Resources Ltd (IndoAgri) posted Rp1.91 trillion net profit after tax last year, a 7.2% decrease from Rp2.05 trillion in the previous year.
In an official statement today, profit from operations including biological assets gain fell 8.3% to Rp2.99 trillion from Rp3.26 trillion.

IndoAgri, a SGX listed vertically integrated agribusiness group and manufacturer of edible oils and fats, booked a 16.3% in gross profit to Rp3.75 trillion from Rp3.23 trillion, sending a slight increase in gross margin to 39.5% from 35.7%.
Gross profit hike was contributed by higher selling prices of palm products and rubber as well as higher sales volume of palm seeds. Revenue slightly rose 4.9% to Rp9.48 trillion from Rp9.04 trillion.

IndoAgri CEO and Executive Director Mark Wakeford said in 2010, the company planted 15,041 hectares of new oil palm and 3,630 hectares of sugar cane, increasing total planted area to 242,107 hectares from 227,721 hectares in 2009.
Planted oil palm reached 205,064 hectares, excluding plasma area, last year from 193,613 hectares.

Mature area was 155,400 hectares, an increase of 22,840 hectares from 132,560 hectares, while immature area reached 49,664 hectares, reduced 11,389 hectares from 61,053 hectares.
CPO production fell 3% to 740,000 tons last year from 763,000 tons, while fresh fruit bunch (FFB) slightly decreased 3% to 3.30 million tons from 3.39 million tons.

Bank OCBC NISP Books Rp321 Billion Profit in 2010 Read more about Bank - The Indonesia Today

PT Bank OCBC NISP Tbk (NISP) announced today it posted a net income of Rp321 billion in 2010, falling Rp115 billion or 26.4% compared to Rp436 billion in 2009.

Notwithstanding the declining trend in interest rates, net interest income which amounted to Rp1,807 billion in 2010 represented an increase of Rp80 billion, or 4.6%, compared to Rp1,727 billion in 2009.

"This is attributed to the Bank’s ability to increase its lending by 27.7% in 2010, while maintaining an efficient level of cost of funds as evident from the increase in the composition of low-cost funds from 56.2% at year-end 2009 to 59.6% by the end of 2010," the bank said.

Net interest income contribution to total revenue has risen to 79.0% in 2010 compared to 77.6% in 2009. Net interest margin (NIM) experienced a slight drop from 5.5% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2010 due to a 16.1% increase in earning assets balanced only by a 4.6% rise in net interest income.

In 2010, interest income registered at Rp 3,332 billion or a decrease of Rp 36 billion or 1.1% compared to Rp 3,368 billion in 2009. While interest expense reached Rp1,525 billion or shrunk Rp116 billion or 7,1% compared to Rp1,641 billion in 2009.

In 2010, other operating income posted Rp482 billion, signifying a Rp15 billion or 3.1% reduction compared to Rp497 billion in 2009. Net non-operating costs amounted to Rp178 billion in 2010 mainly due to the incurrence of expenses worth Rp 189 billion arising from the merger of Bank OCBC NISP and Bank OCBC Indonesia as part of Bank OCBC NISP in 2010.

Total assets were worth Rp44,475 billion by 31 December 2010, an upsurge of Rp7,422 billion or 20% compared to Rp37,053 billion at year-end 2009. This upward trend is largely attributed to an increase in gross loans reported at Rp6,070 billion.

Gross loans outstanding by 31 December 2010 totaled Rp27,957 billion, representing a 27.7% rise compared to Rp21,887 billion in 31 December 2009.

The bank has managed to maintain asset quality as reflected in lower gross non-performing loans (NPL) at 2.0% from total gross loans or reaching Rp560 billion on 31 December 2010 compared to 3.2% or Rp694 billion by the end of 2009.

Loan increases that exceeded the growth of third party funds have led to a 5.6% rise in the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) to 78.0% at the end of 2010 from 72.4% on 31 December 2009 which is higher compared to the banking industry’s LDR at approximately 75.1%.

Total liabilities on 31 December 2010 recorded at Rp39,942 billion, an increase of Rp7,027 billion or 21.3% compared to Rp32,915 billion on 31 December 2009. This upward movement is principally ascribed to increased third party funds and the growth of subordinated bonds at Rp5,647 billion and Rp875 billion respectively.

Third party funds reached Rp35,863 billion on 31 December 2010 denoting an 18.7% rise compared to Rp30,216 billion by the end of 2009. The composition of third party funds consisting of demand deposits, savings and time deposits each represent 18.7%, 40.9% and 40.4% from total third party funds by the end of 2010.

Harga Minyak Naik Karena Kekhawatiran Pasokan Berlanjut - Antara

New York (ANTARA News) - Harga minyak dunia sedikit meningkat pada Jumat waktu setempat, karena berlanjutnya kekhawatiran bahwa eskalasi kerusuhan di Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara yang kaya minyak kemungkinan menghambat pasokan.

Di New York, minyak mentah light sweet untuk pengiriman April, yang dikenal sebagai West Texas Intermediate (WTI), ditutup naik 60 sen menjadi 97,88 dolar per barel pada Jumat, namun masih jauh dari posisi tertinggi harian (intra-day) 103,41 dolar pada Kamis, level yang terakhir terlihat pada September 2008, demikian AFP melaporkan.

Minyak mentah Brent North Sea di London untuk pengiriman April naik 78 sen menjadi 112,14 dolar per barel, setelah meroket pada Kamis mencapai 119,79 dolar -- level tertinggi sejak Agustus 2008 -- sebelum meluncur turun karena aksi ambil untung (profit taking).

"Di balik volatilitas ini adalah ketidakpastian besar pada skala pasokan di Libya dan bagaimana negara dapat mengkompensasi kehilangan (pasokan) ini," kata analis Commerzbank, Carsten Fritsch.

"Arab Saudi telah menyatakan kesediaannya untuk mengkompensasi memasok kekurangan dari Libya."

"Namun, banyak kilang di Eropa yang memperoleh minyak dari Libya hanya dapat memproses minyak ringan (light). Hal ini dipertanyakan apakah Arab Saudi dapat memberikan minyak (jenis) ini."

Kekhawatiran dari pemutusan (penghentian produksi) lengkap Libya 1,6 juta barel per hari minyak mentah light mendorong harga naik minggu ini karena pemimpin Libya Moamer Kadhafi tampak terisolasi di ibukota Tripoli dalam menghadapi "pemberontakan" rakyat terhadapnya yang telah memerintah selama 41 tahun.

"Pada tingkat ini tidak akan lama sebelum harga kembali naik di atas 140 dolar yang terlihat pada 2008," kata analis pada lembaga penelitian Capital Economics dalam komentar pasarnya.

Kekuatan dunia pada Jumat sedang mempelajari kemungkinan langkah-langkah hukuman terhadap Kadhafi karena tindakan keras orang kuat Libya itu terhadap para demonstran yang meningkat di seluruh negara tanpa menghiraukan hukum.

Para diplomat mengatakan mereka sedang mempelajari kemungkinan sebuah zona larangan terbang di atas Libya, serta larangan perjalanan dan membekukan aset terhadap keluarga Kadhafi, di tengah meningkatnya kekhawatiran atas jumlah korban yang terus bertambah.

Investor juga memonitor situasi di Bahrain, dimana ribuan demonstran melakukan pawai di Manama dan menekankan pemberontakan selama 11 hari terhadap monarki, kata Ong Yi Ling, analis investasi Phillip Futures di Singapura.

"Sementara Bahrain bukan merupakan produsen minyak utama, namun negara itu memiliki hubungan dekat dengan Arab Saudi, sehingga sangat penting untuk keseimbangkan strategis kekuatan di Tengah Timur," kata Ong.

Berlian Tanker removed from credit watch - Insider Stories

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it has affirmed its B- corporate credit rating on PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) and removed it from credit watch, where it was placed with negative implications on August 26, 2010. The outlook is stable.

"We also affirmed and removed from credit watch the CCC issue ratings on the US$400 million senior unsecured notes due 2014 and the US$125 million 5-year convertible bonds due 2012 (outstanding of US$0.1 million as at Sept. 30, 2010), both issued by BLT Finance B.V., a wholly-owned subsidiary of BLTA."
S&P also removed the ratings from credit watch after Berlian Tanker signed a US$685 million, 5-year secured syndicated loan.

The loan refinances US$593 million of the Indonesia-based shipping company's existing debt, reducing debt installments by US$167 million over the next 3 years.
"The loan will also finance most of BLTA's committed capital expenditure for 2011 and replace some tight covenants that were the reason for the company's CreditWatch listing," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Manuel Guerena in a press statement.
The rating on BLTA reflects the following weaknesses: The company's aggressive financial profile, evident from a high operating-lease-adjusted ratio of debt to annualized EBITDA of about 7.7x as at Sept. 30, 2010. "While the ratio is better than in 2009, we do not expect it to improve significantly in the next few quarters, given the supply-demand balance in the shipping sector and the bunker-raising costs."

The competitive, capital-intensive and cyclical nature of the shipping industry. S&P expects revenues and margins to remain under pressure in the next few years.
The following factors, however, support the rating such as good competitive position. The recent economic slowdown affected the chemical tanker segment less than other shipping sectors. In addition, BLTA's stainless steel, double-haul IMO II and III parcel tankers are in a good position, given the phasing out of single-hull vessels, as required by the International Maritime Organization.
Earnings stability and downside protection through contracts of affreightment and charters. These deals provide little more than 50% of BLTA's revenues.
Favorable local cabotage regulation for all intra-Indonesian seaborne transportation, which is to be carried by Indonesian-controlled -and flagged vessels.

BLTA's liquidity position is adequate. Cash and short-term investments were US$161 million as of Sept. 30, 2010. "In addition, we expect BLTA's annual funds from operations to exceed US$200 million during 2010. The new loan will refinance most of BLT's short-term debt and its offshore bank loans. The company's additional sale and lease-back contracts should finance its remaining capital expenditure commitments."

As at September 30, 2010, Berlian Tanker managed 95 tankers, representing 2.2 million deadweight tonnage, with a weighted average age of 7.5 years.
The company's key businesses are operation of chemical and oil tankers, which provide about 74% and 19% of BLTA's revenues, respectively.

PBRX:Sunrise Industry - Mandiri Sekuritas

Pan Brothers Tex is an example of the revival in the garment industry. PBRX is embarking on an ambitious expansion projects which the company expects to boost its revenue in 2011. After the expansion, it will become the biggest garment manufacturer in Indonesia. Our own rough estimate expects PBRX's revenue to grow 91.4% yoy to US$300.5mn (from 2010E of US$157.0mn), and net income of US$8.9mn, 128,2% yoy increase from 2010E of US$3.9mn. This will translate into EPS of Rp90 (using Rp/US$ = 9,000) or an FY11F PE of 18.2x.&nb sp; PBRX itself has more ambitious FY11F target of US$437.0mn revenue, and US$20.3mn net income. The material difference lies in (1) planned 2011 acquisitions, which we exclude from our forecast, and (2) operating margin assumed. PBRX assumes 7.2% operating margin, while Mandiri uses 4.9% (2010E : 3.9% operating margin).

Organic growth. PBRX manufactures products for Adidas, Nike, Calvin Klein, Perry Ellis, Liz Claiborne, Speedo, JC Penney, and others. In 2010, the company produced 24.6mn pieces, and it expects to produce 42mn pieces in FY11. PBRX employed 11,222 people, with 8,400 sewing machines in 4 cities (Tangerang, and Sukabumi in West Java, and Solo, Boyolali in Central Java). In 2011-2012, PBRX plans to expand by adding another 4,800 sewing machines in the expanded Boyolali plant and Srage n facili ty. The expansion is focused in Central Java to take advantage of the relatively lower minimum wages in the province. Minimum wage in Tangerang for 2011 is Rp1,243,000/month, while in Boyolali is Rp800,500/month. Wages comprise of 14.3% of COGS. Around 51.1% of the current machines are located in West Java, and therefore at the fully- run new expansion in Central Java, we can expect the margin to increase 1.15%.

Inorganic growth. Armed with the cash from the rights issue PBRX has also acquired 51% stake in Hollit Int., a buying agent garment company, which engages in raw material sourcing and production of collections of high quality garment to its customers. Hollit Intl FY10 revenue was estimated at US$60mn with profit before tax margin at 4.5%-5.0%. PBRX expects to tap Hollit expertise in raw material sourcing and improve its costs. Raw materials contribute 67.9% to the COGS. PBRX also has plans to acquire garments plants.

Strong support from shareholders. Post the December rights issue, 22.5% of PBRX is owned by Ganda Sawit Utama, one of the founding members of Wilmar Corp. Another 26.5% stake is owned by Trisetijo Manunggal Utama, local owner of Hana Indonesia. Valuations at this moment is expensive, however using FY11F from the management, EPS FY11F is Rp239, or a PE of 6.7x, and P/BV of 2.1x (using Sept 30 equity and rights issue proceeds).

Jumat, 25 Februari 2011

28 Februari, Vallar Resmi Kuasai 25% Saham BUMI - Okezone

Vallar Plc bakal merampungkan transaksi dengan PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) pada 28 Februari besok. Selanjutnya, transaksi untuk mendapatkan PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU) bakal segera Vallar realisasikan.

"Transaksi dengan BUMI diperkirakan akan selesai pada 28 February 2011. Vallar akan mulai mengontrol Berau pada saat yang sama. Sementara pemegang saham Berau, PT Bukit Mutiara,baru akan menuntaskan transaksinya pada 8 April 2011 setelah periode BCE lock up habis," jelas Co-chairman of Vallar Nathaniel Rotchschild dalam keterangan tertulisnya di Jakarta, JUmat (25/2/2011).

Sebelumnya, perusahaan milik keluarga Rothschild, Vallar Plc mengumumkan transaksi tukar guling 75 persen saham Berau dan 25 persen saham Bumi. "Transaksi ini bernilai USD3 miliar yang akan dibayar dengan tunai dan saham Vallar," kata Direktur Vallar Nathaniel Rothschild melalui telekonferensi di Jakarta beberapa waktu lalu.

Transaksi ini, kata dia, sesuai dengan tujuan perusahaan untuk berekspansi di bidang pertambangan. Bumi dan Berau diharapkan memproduksi 140 juta ton batu bara per tahun mulai 2013.

Vallar membeli 75 persen saham Berau melalui induknya, PT Bumi Mutiara. Skemanya, 35 persen saham Berau dibayar tunai Rp 6,57 triliun. Selebihnya ditukar guling dengan 52,3 juta lembar saham Vallar. Setelah transaksi ini, saham Bumi Mutiara di Berau tersisa 15,3 persen.

Sedangkan 25 persen saham Bumi Resources milik Bakrie and Brothers ditukar guling dengan 90,1 juta lembar saham Vallar. Transaksi ini butuh persetujuan pemegang saham dalam rapat umum pada 14 Januari 2011. "Grup Bakrie setuju membayar denda USD150 juta jika transaksi saham BUMI gagal," kata Rothschild.

Transaksi diharapkan selesai 8 April 2011. Bakrie akan menjadi pengendali Vallar dengan porsi saham 43 persen. Sedangkan Grup Recapital Investment melalui Bumi Mutiara memiliki 24,9 persen. Adapun saham pendiri Vallar tinggal 3,8 persen. "Vallar akan berganti nama menjadi Bumi Plc," kata Rothschild.

Perusahaan ini akan dipimpin Indra Bakrie, adik Ketua Partai Golkar Aburizal Bakrie, dengan Nathaniel Rothschild sebagai wakilnya. Presiden Direktur Bumi Resources Ari S Hudaya akan menjadi CEO.

Presiden Direktur Berau Coal Rosan Perkasa Roeslani, yang kelak menjabat direktur non-eksekutif, mengatakan, setelah transaksi ini, perusahaan yang dikendalikan orang Indonesia akan tercatat di London Stock Exchange.

MEDC:Down the drain - Mandiri Sekuritas

Libya has almost turned into a war zone. Guns, bombs, and tanks have been deployed to confront protesters, while oil investors, including Medco Energi (MEDC), began to halt their operations in the oil-rich country and sent their expatriate staffs out of the country. We are concerned with MEDC’s Block 47 future development which may go nowhere if civil war finally erupts and transition to the new government, if any, is not smooth. What may be worse is a threat from total loss of the assets through civil pillage or nationalization. Even if those threats are hard to estimate, we took a conservative stance by taking out the Block 47 from our estimate, resulted in a decline in our 2014 earnings forecast (-41.5%). While awaiting clarity in the geopolitical crisis, we downgraded MEDC to Neutral.

High uncertainty in Libya. Following recent turbulence in Libya, many oil producers, such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell, and also MEDC have halted their operations. MEDC earlier maintained operations since the initial anti-government movement site was significantly far from MEDC’s Block 47 (Benghazi City: ±590km from Block 47). Yet, as the unrests quickly spread close to Tripoli (±190km), it was wiser for MEDC to close down all exploration activities for unforeseeable future while at the same time, requested Libyan military to protect MEDC’s assets in Block 47 (US$175mn or 21% of MEDC’s total oil and gas assets). This clearly takes some of the luster off MEDC’s prospects although the impact is less compared wit h produci ng blocks.

Worst case scenario: no output from Libya. We think that Libya crisis will not be resolved soon as Gaddafi vowed to keep his throne and his son Saif al-Islam warned of a civil war. Civil war is clearly is in plain sight. What happens if it occurred continuously is that there will be a total shutdown in oil and gas activities, including MEDC’s. Moreover, if the military personnel guarding MEDC’s assets are outnumbered; there is likelihood those assets will be looted. If protesters finally triumph and a new government is assembled, rugged transition may hamper any furthe r contra ct development (exploration expires at 31Mar11) and may raise nationalization peril. Thus, we turn up with a conservative stance where Libya Block 47 is totally off for good which will lower MEDC’s expected cash flow 2014 onwards. With this exclusion, our revenue and net income forecast in 2014 declined significantly by 23.6% and 41.5% from our previous forecast.

Downgrade to Neutral. Due to the high uncertainties in Libya which may bring severe drawbacks on MEDC’s earnings outlook from the Block 47, we downgraded our recommendation to Neutral for the mean time with TP of Rp3,200. We apply our most conservative assumption where no revenue will be generated from Libya Block 47 in 2014 onwards. MEDC is currently traded at EV/2P US$5.7/boe, PER 11F 19.3x, and PBV 11F 1.4x.

London Sumatera (LSIP IJ) and United Tractor (UNTR IJ) - CLSA

London Sumatera (LSIP IJ) – in line
LSIP recorded strong 4Q earnings of Rp391bn, bringing FY10 earnings to Rp1,033bn (EPS of Rp757/share), +46% YoY, 4% above CL and consensus forecast. Good CPO vol growth + increased contribution from rubber. Reiterate BUY. For details pls see attached file.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) – broadly in line
· Net income of Rp3.88tn for FY2010 was little changed from 2009 (Rp3.82tn)
· Komatsu heavy equipment business saw unit sales spike by 74% to 5,400 units, while Pama's coal removal grew by 14% to 78m tons
· Revenue grew by 28% Rp37.3tn, but...
· Operating margins declined to 13.8% from 17.7% due to heavy rainfall and a strengthening Rupiah impacting Pama's profitability
· UNTR's sales was 7% above CLSA's expectation, operating income in line but on the net profit side, it was 6% below CLSA's expectation
· Vs. consensus, revenue 2010 was 1.8% above, but net profit was 3.5% below
· UNTR’s January's equipment sales was at an all-time high; and strip-ratio had improved. With AALI, potential upside will be from higher than expected CPO price

Astra Int’l , a strong 2010 - CLSA

So, the whisper number on Astra's net profit is wrong. Instead of 5% below consensus, the figure came in 7% above consensus.

Overall strong 2010 but margin dragged by United Tractors (UNTR IJ). UNTR’s operating margins declined to 13.8% from 17.7% due to heavy rainfall and a strengthening Rupiah impacting mining contractor Pama's profitability. The good news is that UNTR’s numbers are looking strong in Jan 2011.

Heavy equipment sales is an all time high at 731 units, 55% market share, and 2.1x the sales in Jan 2010. Wet weather still problematic for coal production, but strip ratio had improved.

There are some challenges and regulatory speed bump ahead. But the reality is that reality is that motorcycles (and cars) are the most effective mode of transportation because of lack of decent public transportation. Just this morning two of our dealers were talking about too many motorcycles in this city, some with very aggressive driving habits. And this is not going to change anytime soon.

Our analyst Sarina maintains her BUY call on the stock.

Key points from the report:
Better than expected FY10 results. Net profit at 3% above our forecast and 7% above consensus’ expectation. Revenue 3-5% above analysts’ forecasts. 4Q10 revenue and profit +6% and +2% QoQ respectively. FY10 profit +43% YoY to Rp14.3tn, with revenue +32% YoY to Rp129.9tn.
However, operating margin in FY10 dropped to 11.3% from 12.9% in FY09 driven by a drop in UNTR operating margin to 13.8% from 17.7% in 2009. UNTR's operational continued to be hampered by unfavourable weather conditions and a weak US dollar in 2010.
The good news is that UNTR’s January's equipment sales was at an all-time high; and strip-ratio had improved.
Regulatory speed bump ahead. We expect car sales to slow down by 10% this year: higher vehicle taxes + ban on subsidized fuel purchases for cars looming in the future.
We think more likely a short-term shock. Longer term still attractive due to lack of public transport for the foreseeable future and low car penetration at 4%.
Commodity as a hedge. 30% of its earnings come from its commodity-related businesses, mainly UNTR and Astra Agro (AALI IJ).
Remains a “BUY”. ASII share price has slumped from its peak on regulatory changes and runaway inflation fears. ASII remains a key market proxy to Indonesia’s compelling growth story.
Valuation: now trading at 13.8x PE11; our SOTP-based TP implies a 25% upside.
Dividend of Rp1,130/sh will be proposed at the AGM in May2011, bringing total dividend to Rp1,600/sh vs Rp1,120/sh in 2009, a 43% increase.

Daily Focus 25 Feb 2011 - DBS Vickers

Astra Agro Lestari: Buy; Rp21,700; TP Rp30,650; AALI IJ 4Q10 results in line
• Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) booked 4Q10 net profit of Rp788.6bn – in line with expectations
• Costs were higher than expected, offset by higher other income
• New planting reached c.3.5k ha
• Buy call reiterated for 41% upside to Rp30,650 TP.

London Sumatra P: Buy; Rp10,500; TP Rp13,500 prev Rp14,200; LSIP IJ Rubber production below forecast
• London Sumatra (Lonsum) booked 4Q10 net profit of Rp391.5bn – slightly below
• The variance was from 33% lower-than-expected rubber volumes
• New plantings reached 1.1k ha – below 3k ha target
• FY11F-13F EPS cut by 7-8%, TP lowered to Rp13,500. Buy call maintained for 29% upside.

Astra International: Buy; Rp51,900; TP Rp60,000; ASII IJ Beat expectations due to higher non-operating income
• 4Q10 net profit surged 36.4% yoy to Rp4,004 billion, 33% ahead of market expectations
• Despite FY10 earnings growing 43%, dividend payout ratio was unchanged at 45%
• Maintain BUY; earnings under review with upward bias.

United Tractors: Buy; Rp22,900; TP Rp27,900; UNTR IJ Net profit below estimates due to Pama’s margin pressure
• Strong Komatsu sales cushioned Pama’s weak earnings. Expect margin improvement at Pama this year.
• Beneficiary of positive outlook from coal sector
• Attractively priced at 14.6x FY11F PE for 20% earnings CAGR over FY10-12F. Maintain Buy, TP Rp27,200.

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah - 4Q10 weak due to high costs, but operations should start to improve in 2Q11 - JP Morgan

• FY10 results below expectations due to high costs: ITMG reported FY10 net income of US$204MM, down 39% Y/Y. The reported result was significantly below both JPM’s (26% below) and consensus’ (33% below) FY10 forecasts of US$276MM and US$305MM respectively. FY10 production volume of 22MM tons was up 3% Y/Y, while ASP of US$75/ton was up 6% Y/Y. Total cost of US$59/ton rose 19% Y/Y and was the main reason for the weak performance.

• 4Q10 core net income down 71% Q/Q: Subtracting 9M10 results, 4Q10 net income came in at US$18MM, down 74% Y/Y and 65% Q/Q. 4Q10 volume was 5.6MM tons, down 26% Y/Y but up 15% Q/Q. ASP of US$80/ton is up 32% Y/Y but flat Q/Q. The company mentioned mining fuel costs, increase in strip ratio, and demurrage costs caused the 71% Q/Q decline in 4Q10 core net profit.

• Could start to recover in 2Q10: Our channel check with mining contractors indicated that during 4Q10 rains occurred in 10 out of 12 weeks in Kalimantan, but that the weather has improved on a Q/Q basis in QTD 1Q11. ITMG mentioned that because of rain in 4Q10, it was forced to mine in areas that have a high stripping ratio, which increased its cost. We foresee an improvement in operations in 2Q10 as the dry season starts.

• Lower PT to Rp50,000, maintain Neutral: We reduce our FY11 net income forecast by 25% to US$336MM; this is now 39% below consensus as, at the time of writing, the Street has yet to react to the disappointing FY10. Our earnings estimate revision leads us to lower our Dec-11 DCF based PT from Rp60,000 to Rp50,000. The weak result could cause the stock to decline by about 10%, but we believe the worst was in 4Q10 and operations will start to recover in 2Q11. Maintain Neutral. We recommend selling the stock now and reestablishing a position at Rp42,500 or below.

Risks: (1) Rise in coal prices; and (2) lower-than-expected FY11E EPS.

Daily 25 Feb 2011 (ASII, AALI, LSIP, ASGR) - NISP Sekuritas

Laba bersih Astra International meningkat 43% di 2010 (ASII, Rp51.400)
· Astra International mencatatkan peningkatan laba bersih 43% dari Rp 10,05tn di 2009 menjadi Rp14,37tn di 2010. Laba bersih ini 7% lebih tinggi dibanding consensus yang sebesar Rp13,4tn.
· Dua segmen ASII yang menopang peningkatan laba adalah total penjualan Bisnis otomotif dengan Rp70,22tn dan total sumbangan dari bisnis alat berat dan pertambangan yang dijalankan oleh PT United Tractors dengan Rp37,32tn.
· ASII diperdagangkan di consensus PER 13.7x dan EV/EBITDA 10.8x.

Astra Agro Lestari raup laba bersih Rp2,01tn di 2010 (AALI, Rp22.200)
· Astra Agro Lestari mencatatkan laba bersih naik 21,44% dari Rp1,66tn di 2009 menjadi Rp2,01tn di 2010. Laba bersih ini 3% lebih tinggi dari konsensus yang sebesar Rp1.95tn.
· Selain itu, kas dan setara kas perseroan naik 57,34% dari Rp788,54milyar di 2009 menjadi Rp1,24tn di 2010.
· AALI diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 13x dan EV/EBITDA 8.4x.

London Sumatra raih laba bersih naik 46% di 2010 (LSIP, Rp10.500)
· London Sumatra mencatatkan laba bersih naik 46,1% dari Rp705milyar di 2009 menjadi Rp1,03tn di 2010. Laba bersih ini 4% lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan konsensus sebesar Rp944milyar.
· Selain itu, Lonsum juga mencatatkan EBITDA sebesar Rp1,59tn di 2010 atau naik 32,1% dibandingkan Rp1,20tn di 2009. EBITDA ini 6% lebih tinggi dari konsensus sebesar Rp1.49tn.
· LSIP diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 53.8x dan EV/EBITDA 1.1x

Laba bersih Astra Graphia naik 76,86% di 2010 (ASGR, Rp640)
· Astra Graphia mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 76,86% dari Rp66,95milyar di 2009 menjadi Rp118,41milyar di 2010. Laba bersih ini lebih tinggi 3% dibandingkan consensus sebesar Rp115milyar.
· Laba perseroan disumbang oleh penjualan yang mencapai Rp1,6tn di 2010 atau meningkat 17,22% dibandingkan periode yang sama di 2009 sebesar Rp1,3tn.

London Sumatra - 4Q10: Soft CPO output covered by rubber price surge - Credit Suisse

● LSIP reported 79.5% YoY, 74.8% QoQ 4Q10A earnings jump, supported by strong 4Q10A rubber price. LSIP’s FY10A earnings are up by 46.1% YoY, 14% ahead of our forecast and 4% ahead of consensus.

● 4Q10A CPO output was down by 0.5% YoY, up by 13.2% QoQ, but remained 8% below our FY10E forecasts. LSIP 4Q10A robust earnings growth has largely been driven by the surge in rubber prices with contribution of rubber to LSIP’s revenues jumping from 11% in FY09A to 15% in FY10A.

● Given LSIP’s weak FY10A CPO output, we reduce our FY11-12E CPO output forecast by 5.2%. We tweak down our FY11-12E earnings forecasts for LSIP by 1.2-2.7% on lower CPO output assumptions.

● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on LSIP and lower our target price from Rp13,030/share to Rp12,900/share as we reduce our FY11E earning estimates. Our target price for LSIP is based on 15x 2011E P/E.

KDB ends talks on Bank Panin deal - Reuters

South Korea's Korea Development Bank (KDB) said it failed to clinch a deal to buy a stake in Indonesia's Bank Panin from its top shareholder, in a move marking a setback for the Korean bank's plans to expand into Southeast Asia.

The South Korean state-run bank was in negotiations to purchase a stake in a Southeast Asian bank for around $1 billion as part of stepping up its effort to expand overseas in the face of weak growth prospects at home.

"The fact is that deal is dropped due to differences on conditions" a KDB spokesman said on Thursday.

KDB was in final talks with Panin Financial to acquire a part of its 45 percent stake in the seven-largest Indonesian bank in a bid to control the bank in the future, a source close to the deal said.

The potential deal was KDB's latest effort to pursue acquisitions abroad after the bank pulled out of bidding for an estimated $900 million stake in Thailand's Siam City Bank early last year.

CPO futures ease on Mideast unrest - Business Times


CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday on concerns over the unrest in the Middle East and big refiners selling down the market, a dealer said.

March 2011 and April 2011 slid RM72 to RM3,506 and RM3,480 respectively, while May 2011 dwindled RM59 to RM3,455 and June 2011 eased RM43 to RM3,435.

Bursa Malaysia Derivatives announced yesterday crude palm oil futures contracts reached an all-time high for the daily volume yesterday, surpassing the previous record of 41,879 contracts on November 18 2010.


THE Malaysian rubber market ended mixed yesterday as buyers remained sidelined in anticipation of lower prices, a dealer said.

The prices were also influenced by mixed performances on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange and the Shanghai futures market.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 16 sen to 1,642 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk eased 0.5 sen to 1,091 sen per kg.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 decreased 7 sen to 1,636 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk rose by 1.5 sen to 1,091.5 sen per kg.


THE Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed sharply lower yesterday as most buyers preferred to stay on the sidelines, dealers said.

Tin price fell by US$850 (US$1.00 = RM3.04) to US$31,550 per tonne, in line with the downtrend on London Metal Exchange (LME).

Tin price on the LME, which normally influences local market, fell by US$750 to US$31,650 per tonne.

On the KLTM, turnover fell to 49 tonnes from 55 tonnes on Wednesday with the participation from European, Japanese and local traders.

At the opening level, buyers bid for 10 tonnes while offers totalled 101 tonnes. The price differential between the KLTM and LME narrowed to a premium of US$365 per tonne from US$465 per tonne previously. - Bernama

AKRA:Priced-in catalysts - Mandiri Sekuritas

AKRA will distribute 30.5% of the gains from Sorini divestment in the form of special dividend amounting to Rp135/share or equivalent to 8.4% dividend yield. Using proceeds from Sorini divestment, AKRA repaid most of its debts and now is in net cash position. Volume growth this year (+35.0%yoy) should come from both the expansion to the East Indonesian market and higher allocation of subsidized fuel (+82.7%yoy). In addition, rising oil price is also an advantage for AKRA. However, at adjusted PER11-12F of 20.6-16.2x, we view that market might have priced in these positives; therefore, we have Neutral stance on AKRA.

Special dividend yield of 8.4%. AKR Corporindo announced a special dividend of Rp135/share or equivalent to 8.4% dividend yield. The Rp512bn special dividend represents 30.5% dividend payout taken from the gain derived from Sorini divestment. This ratio, in line with our expectation, is in line with the company’s historical dividend payout rate. The dividend ex-date will be on 14 March 2011.

Strong balance sheet with net cash position. AKRA got Rp2.2tn proceeds from SOBI divestment. Based on the company’s management, it used most of the excess cash for debt repayment, except for the US$75mn debts in Jakarta Tank Terminal and AKR China operation. We estimate its net gearing ratio by the end of this year will be -0.1x, which mean the company will be in net cash position.

FY11F volume growth of 35.0%yoy. We estimate petroleum sales volume could reach 1.8mn kl (+35.0%yoy). The catalysts should come from higher allocation of subsidized fuel (+82.7%yoy) and expansion to the East Indonesian market for non- subsidized fuel segment. In East Indonesia, the company serves mining companies in Papua and fishing vessels in Maluku, taking advantage of the government’s target to increase fishery production. In addition to volume g rowth, it also enjoys rising oil price of +14.0%yoy or US$90/barrel in our assumption.

Neutral on AKRA. Using 13.5% WACC and 5.0% TG rate, we arrived at TP of Rp1,600/share. Our TP is reduced from the previous one after factored in the special dividend payment and higher WACC due to capital structure shift to equity. At current market price, AKRA is trading at adjusted PER11-12F of 20.6-16.2x, which may indicate the positive outlook might have been priced in. The main risks are unfavorable changes in government regulations and declining oil prices.

Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

Vallar Final Prospectus


Astra Intert. FY10 net income surges 43% - Insider Stories

Indonesia largest automotive player PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) today reportd a 43.13% increase in net income last year as revenue reached higher level.

In a consolidated financial statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) today, Astra's net income reached Rp14.37 trillion last year from Rp10.04 trillion a year earlier.

Operating profit rose 15.43% to Rp14.73 trillion from Rp12.76 trillion. However, Astra's operating margin lowered to 11.33% from 12.95% because of higher cost.
Gross profit increased 18.32% to Rp26.87 trillion from Rp22.77 trillion. Cost of goods revenue surged 36.11% to Rp103.12 trillion from Rp75.76 trillion. Astra posted a 31.93% increase in revenue to Rp129.99 trillion from Rp98.53 trillion.

United Tractors Posts Rp3.87 Trillion Profit in 2010 - The Indonesia Today

Heavy equipment distributor and mining company PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR), a subsidiary of diversified company PT Astra International Tbk, posted net profit of Rp3.87 trillion in 2010, slightly increased from Rp3.82 trillion in 2009.
It recorded net earning per share (EPS) of Rp1,164, compared to Rp1,147 a previous year.

Revenue increased 28% to Rp37.32 trillion from Rp29.24 trillion in 2009 while cost of revenue also rose to Rp30.53 trillion from Rp22.57 trillion a year earlier.
The company said revenue growth was mainly boosted by the increase of heavy equipment sales volume and after-sale services of Construction Machinery unit, coal production increase and overburden removal of mining contracting unit and the increase of coal sales volume from mining unit.

Construction Machinery unit contributed 46.3% of UNTR's revenue, mining contracting unit contributed 45.4% and mining unit contributed 8.3%.

Operating expense increased to Rp1.63 trillion, then the company booked operating profit of Rp5.16 trillion, lower than Rp5.27 trillion in 2009.

The company paid income tax of Rp1.19 trillion in 2010, lower than Rp1.59 trillion a previous year.

As of December 2010, UNTR's assets totaled Rp29.7 trillion while liability amounted Rp13.54 trillion

Indonesia cbank eyes investment grade after Fitch positive outlook - Reuters

Indonesia's central bank said on Thursday Fitch decided to upgrade the country's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable, reflecting a higher probability to reach an investment grade rating.

"According to Fitch analysts, a positive outlook reflects higher probability for Indonesia's sovereign rating to get an upgrade within 12-18 months," spokesman Difi A. Johansyah said in a statement to reporters, just minutes before the rating agency moved to a positive outlook for Indonesia.

Jababeka unit signs PPA with PLN - Insider Stories

PT Bekasi Power, a wholy owned subsidiary of PT Jababeka Tbk (KIJA), has entered into purchase power agreement (PPA) with PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) today.

Jababeka Vice President Director Budianto Liman, in an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock exchange (IDX) today, said PLN is acting as 100% off-taker of electricity generated by gas and steam-fire power plants (full combined cycle) with 1x125.8 MW capacity owned by Bekasi Power in 20 years.

The commercial date of the power plans is scheduled in the last quarter of this year, generating revenue contribution of US$85 million a year to Jababeka with EBITDA margin above 30%. KIJA-coded stock today skyrocketed 29.81% to Rp135 per share.

Verena Multi Finance: Bertumbuh dengan pesat - Mandiri Sekuritas

Kunci berinvestasi
q Pertumbuhan dalam empat tahun terakhir sangat pesat. Laba bersih Perseroan bertumbuh 104% CAGR dari tahun 2006-2009, alhasil aset Persero an bertu mbuh secara CAGR 70%, jauh di atas industri yang bertumbuh 17%. Strategi dalam menyalurkan pembiayaan yang handal membawa piutang (bersih) pembiayaan Perseroan bertumbuh 93% CAGR dibandingkan industri yang hanya tumbuh 15%. Posisi terakhir per September 2010, total aset Perseroan mencapai Rp912miliar dengan total pembiayaan mencapai Rp995miliar. Pertumbuhan ini membawa Perseroan ke dalam kelompok 35 besar perusahaan pembiayaan otomotif berdasarkan aset.

q Kualitas kredit yang baik. Didukung oleh penerapan manajemen risiko yang prudent, kualitas piutang Perseroan terkontrol dengan baik. Per Sep10, besar penyisihan terhadap rata-rata piutang adalah 2.12%. NPL per Sep10 kembali ke level 0.2% setelah sempat menyentuh 0.6% di tahun 2009. Sementara itu, Net loss terhadap rata-rata piutang juga mengalami penurunan yang konsisten dari 13.2% di 2006 menjadi 0.6% per September 2010.

q Pendanaan yang solid. Dalam membiayai piutangnya, Perseroan didukung penuh oleh Bank Panin sebagai pemegang saham utama dengan plafon kredit yang diberikan oleh Bank Panin mencapai Rp1triliun dari total plafon kredit Perseroan yang sebesar Rp1.8triliun.

q Likuiditas yang terjaga. Perusahaan juga memiliki manajemen likuiditas yang baik. Rincian berdasarkan profil usia aset dan kewajiban Perusahaan menunjukkan bahwa jumlah piutang yang jatuh tempo di setiap periode, rata-rata lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kewajiban yang harus dipenuhi. Posisi terakhir per September 2010, total piutang adalah sebesar Rp1,015miliar dengan pendanaan (hutang bank) adalah sebesar Rp686miliar.

Risiko yang dihadapi
q Persaingan yang semakin ketat. Persaingan di industri pembiayaan saat ini semakin meningkat. Pada tahun 2010 Bapepam LK telah memberikan izin kepada lima perusahaan baru. Hal ini pada gilirannya dapat mempengaruhi pangsa pasar Perusahaan di masa datang. U ntuk itu , Perseroan merambah bisnis baru di luar otomotif yaitu pembiayaan peralatan dan perlengkapan penunjang usaha. Dan juga Perseroan masuk ke segmen korporasi dengan melakukan joint venture membentuk IBJ Verena guna dapat melakukan pembiayaan dengan nilai yang lebih besar.

q Kenaikan suku bunga. Seiring dengan ekspektasi inflasi yang lebih tinggi di tahun 2011 dan BI rate yang baru saja naik 25 bps, maka leasing rate yang saat ini terendah dalam l ima tahun terakhir juga diperkirakan akan naik. Maka, strategi Perseroan adalah mulai menambah jangka waktu kredit pada portfolio kredit nya dari yang maksimum 3 tahun menjadi 4 tahun sehingga pelanggan merasa ringan dalam membayar cicilan. Selain itu, pelanggan dari pembiayaan mobil bekas mempunyai karakteristik emotional buyer yang tidak sensitif terhadap pricing.

$6.4 rubber prices driving Indo consumption - LSIP and UNSP benefits - CLSA INDO

Another slice of plantation nation... how surging rubber prices are driving Indonesian domestic consumption by analyst Di Shui

§ Indonesia has the most rubber plantings by acreage globally, with an estimated 3.5m ha of plantings and 2.8m tons rubber production in 2010.

§ 85% of rubber estates are run by smallholder farmers, with on average 1-2 hectares each. This implies a minimum of 1.5m smallholder rubber farmers in Indonesia.

§ According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, Indonesian rubber production likely rose 16.5% YoY in 2010, mostly on the back of smallholders exploiting maximum yields from over-aged trees.

§ The average yield for smallholders is 750kg per ha. (Indonesia Directorate General of Estate Crops)

§ Our on the ground Komodo check suggests smallholder rubber ASP of Rp44,500/kg, or Rp33.375m annually at current prices. Annual upkeep runs ~Rp5m.

§ This means in the current market, the average smallholder farmer, with his 2ha of rubber plantings, is taking home up to ~Rp4.7m per month, nearly US$530/month and more than double GDP/capita.

§ Chunky dispensable income. If rubber farmers are similar to their oil palm counter parts, we reckon cigarettes, motorcycles, and cell phone sales are thriving in rubber land too. This would make companies like Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Astra Int’l (ASII IJ) happy beneficiaries of surging rubber prices.

Slice of Life note on plantation-driven Indo consumption attached.

Economist Tony Nafte reminded us that this is also another reminder that inflation pressures will persist as consumer demand firms.

And for direct exposure to upstream rubber producers, we offer 2 Indonesian plantation companies.

London Sumatra (LSIP IJ)
Market cap: US$1.62bn
3M ave T/O: US$5m
Rubber makes up 17% of total planted estates and accounted for 14% of operating profits in 9M10. At Rp10,800/share, the stock is trading on 11.2x CL11 earnings. We use a FY11 average prices of US$1,000/ton for CPO and US$4/kg for rubber, representing a 20% and 60% discount to current spot rates respectively. Every US$100/ton increase to CPO price forecast will boost earnings by 16% and

Every US$1/kg increase to rubber price forecast will boost earnings by 8%.

Bakrie Sumatera (UNSP IJ)
Market cap: US$520m
3M ave T/O: US$4.2m
Rubber makes up 14.5% (19k ha) of UNSP's 133k ha total plantings. Of this, 14k ha or 74% are mature.

In 9M10, rubber accounted for 35% of revenue (up from 20% in 9M09), and 40% of gross profits (vs 25% in 9M09). The company is not under coverage. At Rp330/share, UNSP is trading on 9x consensus FY11 earnings.

Perkembangan harga minyak dan inflasi Indonesia Correlation Between Political Event & Oil Price - AAA Sekuritas

Berdasarkan analisa data historis, dampak ketidakstabilan politik terhadap harga minyak hanya bersifat sementara. Harga minyak lebih banyak mengikuti trend dollar index dibandingkan dengan trend demand dan supply yang dapat dipengaruhi oleh kejadian politik yang sekarang terjadi di Timur Tengah. Atau dengan kata lain, harga minyak memiliki korelasi tinggi dengan dollar index dan korelasi rendah dengan demand dan supply. Sementara itu dampak kenaikan harga minyak belakangan ini terhadap inflasi di dalam negeri masih sulit di perkirakan karena pemerintah Indonesia belum memberikan kepastian bagaimana mekanisme kenaikan harga minyak akan di jalankan (dengan kenaikan harga BBM atau pembatasan).

Ketegangan politik di Timur Tengah maupun krisis politik di Libya, mendorong kenaikan harga energi kelevel yang cukup tinggi. Hal ini terkait dengan kekhawatiran terhadap kesinambungan supply maupun aktivitas eksplorasi migas yang berasal dari kawasan tersebut. Guna melihat dampak political event terhadap gejolak harga migas, kami menyajikan event study secara historis terkait dengan peristiwa politik dan harga migas.
Terlihat bahwa dampak ketidakstabilan politik terhadap harga migas hanya berlangsung dalam jangka pendek, dan tidak membentuk trend secara sistematis. Disisi lain harga migas lebih dipengaruhi oleh pergerakan dollar index. Pelemahan nilai tukar dollar AS, menyebabkan investor melakukan aksi lindung nilai dengan mengakumulasi emas maupun komoditas energi. Adapun dollar index merupakan index tertimbang mata uang dollar terhadap mata uang dunia.

Dollar Index & Oil Price
Melemahnya mata uang dollar akan menyebabkan adanya perubahan portfolio investasi. Investor akan memberikan bobot investasinya lebih besar kepada instrumen komoditas energi sebagai respons atas turunnya nilai tukar dollar. Pada gilirannya hal tersebut akan menyebabkan harga minyak kembali berada diatas US$ 80/barrel.
Disisi lain ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi akan semakin mendorong ekspektasi demand terhadap energi. Meskipun hubungan antara besaran inventory (sebagai indikator ketersediaan minyak) terhadap harga energi tidak signifikan secara historis, namun dalam situasi yang tidak pasti, informasi yang tidak signifikan dapat memicu perubahan harga sebagai akibat dari perilaku pasar yang tidak sepenuhnya rasional dalam jangka pendek.
Faktor yang masih kami anggap relevan dalam menentukan harga minyak adalah ekspektasi terhadap dollar index yang cenderung akan melemah, seiring dengan kebijakan moneter yang cukup longgar di AS. Kami masih mempertahankan proyeksi rata-rata harga minyak pada tahun 2011 ini pada level US$ 100/ barrel.

Policy Implication
Dengan ekspektasi kenaikan harga energi, maka pasar akan mencermati dampak inflatoir pada harga energi domestik yang masih belum pasti. Diperkirakan kenaikan harga BBM 10% akan mempengaruhi inflasi tahunan sebesar 0,8%. Dengan asumsi inflasi 2011 berada pada kisaran 6,4%, maka dampak kenaikan harga BBM sebesar 10% akan mempengaruhi kenaikan inflasi tahun 2011 menjadi diatas 7%. Namun asumsi dampak kenaikan harga BBM domestik masih belum pasti sehingga sulit untuk dikalkulasi. Ketidakpastian tersebut, paling tidak akan dapat dikurangi ketika skema kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan harga BBM domestik sudah dikomunikasikan secara pasti.

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ, Rp3,750 BUY) Steady Flow - Danareksa Sekuritas

BP Migas to prioritize oil production
Falling oil production raises concerns for the government since revenues from oil exports remain important to balance out the cost of imported oil for consumption. In the past five years, oil production has been below 1.0mn barrels per day. This has prompted BP Migas to prioritize an increase in lifting capacity, including a shift in gas production to old oil fields. This is also the case for Conoco Phillips’s gas production. Instead of delivering gas to PGAS, Chevron was given priority to use Conoco Phillips’ gas in order to boost oil lifting capacity. Chevron has relatively old oil wells and they need to be injected with hot gas to lift the oil to the surface. As a consequence of this policy, PGAS’s gas allocation is below the contract numbers. Currently, Conoco Phillips is only able to provide 300-350 mmscfd of gas to PGAS, below its contract of 375mmscfd.

Shortfall from Pertamina as well
PGAS also has a gas purchase agreement with Pertamina amounting to 250 mmcfd. However, for unspecified reasons Pertamina has only been able to supply around 170-180 mmscfd or a maximum of 200mmscfd, which falls short of the initial volume under the sale and purchase agreement. PGAS has not been able to confirm when Pertamina will be able to deliver the gas as promised. So far PGAS has not imposed any penalty on Pertamina because of the shortfall. The management guidance of gas volume is around 800-850 mmscfd (which takes into account the shortfall from Pertamina and Conoco Phillips). Our estimate is below 800 mmscfd for the next five years, already reflecting the current situation.

Construction to start on West Java floating terminal
PGAS has started construction on the LNG receiving terminal in West Java. Total capex allocated for this project is around US$100mn, mainly for the onshore facility, pipeline and jetty. This capex excludes the FSRU unit as PGAS intends to lease the vessel from Golar Energy, a global FSRU operator. By leasing the vessel, PGAS will not bear the capex for the FSRU and operating start-up time could be faster. PGAS would, however, be liable to pay certain amounts that comprise maintenance and operational expenses. PGAS is fully aware of the lack of expertise it has in operating and maintaining such a unit. The total capacity of the receiving terminal is designed to handle gas of 500mmscfd. However, PGAS has so far only been able to secure around 140mmscfd that will be directly allocated to PLN. According to PGAS, this is basically the break-even volume. Any volume above that amount will translate into profits for PGAS. This project is under PT Regas Nusantara, a joint venture between PGAS (40%) and Pertamina (60%). The project is expected to start commercial operation in 2H12 or early FY13.

Maintain BUY
We have already incorporated the shortfall of gas supply from Conoco Phillips and Pertamina in our model. We have not included the upside potential from the LNG receiving terminal due to a lack of gas supply at the current time. With these assumptions we arrive at a DCF Target Price of Rp5,430. BUY maintained.

Daily 24 Feb 2011 (MEGA, MAPI, INTA, MTDL) - NISP Sekuritas

Bank Mega berencana akuisisi bank beraset di atas Rp15tn di 2011 (MEGA, Rp2.850)
· Bank Mega berencana akuisisi bank beraset diatas Rp15tn tahun ini dengan tujuan melengkapi pertumbuhan organik yang dilakukan perseroan melalui pengembangan sejumlah produk. Dana akuisisi ini didapatkan dari dana internal, right issue dan surat utang.
· Selain itu, Bank Mega juga berencana membuka 75 kantor cabang baru tahun ini dengan tujuan pertumbuhan di dalam hal penyaluran kredit, penghimpunan dana pihak ketiga, dan aset.

Mitra Adiperkasa berencana ekspansi 10-15 gerai di 2011 dengan belanja modal Rp300milyar (MAPI, Rp2.425)
· Mitra Adiperkasa menyiapkan belanja modal Rp300milyar untuk ekspansi 10-15 gerai baru merek ritel asal Amerika Serikat tahun ini. Melalui gerai baru ini, MAPI juga berencana menjangkau kalangan bawah.
· Selain itu, MAPI juga menargetkan pertumbuhan 15% penjualan dari tahun lalu Rp4,73tn menjadi Rp5,44tn di 2011 dengan dukungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pertambahan daya beli masyarakat.
· MAPI diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 14.2x dan EV/EBITDA 6.3x.

Intraco Penta akan terbitkan obligasi US$50jt (INTA, Rp2.800)
· Intraco Penta akan menerbitkan obligasi sebesar US$50jt pada Juni 2011 yang akan digunakan sebagai sumber pendanaan bagi pengembangan anak-anak usaha INTA.
· Selain itu, INTA juga menargetkan 40% pertumbuhan pendapatan dari Rp1,93tn di 2010 menjadi Rp2,7tn di tahun ini. Kenaikan ini seiring dengan target peningkatan penjualan alat berat INTA dan optimalisasi kinerja anak-anak usaha INTA.

Laba Metrodata Electronics tumbuh 150% di 2010 (MTDL, Rp118)
· Metrodata membukukan laba bersih 2010 sebesar Rp25,15milyar, atau naik 150% dibandingkan dengan Rp10,06milyar di 2009 dan 50% dari pendapatan di 2010 yang mencapai Rp2,3tn berasal dari Metrodata E Bisnis, anak usaha hasil kerja sama dengan Synnex Technology.
· Dengan adanya kerja sama dengan Synnex Technology, Metrodata juga akan mengembangkan bisnis IT dan berencana masuk ke bisnis telekomunikasi dan consumer electronics.

Daily Focus 24 Feb 2011 - DBS Vickers

Jasa Marga: Not Rated; Rp3,100; JSMR IJ

Indonesia infrastructure play with solid track record
We recently met with Jasa Marga, the largest and oldest toll operator in Indonesia . While the progress on Indonesia ’s infrastructure development so far has been disappointing, we believe Jasa Marga is one of the safest bet to get exposure to Indonesia ’s infrastructure sector. There are several catalysts for Jasa Marga in our opinion. The scheduled tariff hike later this year for over 10 toll concessions, is adjusted based on CPI inflation every two years and hence provide Jasa Marga with some protection against inflation. Jasa Marga expects the two toll roads sections to commence in 2H11, contributing to revenue growth later this year and next year. More importantly, the company has a promising pipeline with seven concessions under development and potential concessions for acquisitions that are strategically linked to existing concessions. Jasa Marga currently trades at 15x forward PE, down from recent peak of 20x PE in October 2010.

Indo Tambangraya: Buy; Rp48,600; TP Rp62,350; ITMG IJ

FY10 net profit of US$204m below estimates
ITMG reported US$204m net profit in FY10, 26% below our estimates of US$276m and 33% below consensus. We have yet to receive the details but the weak result is likely due to unrealized derivative losses from coal price hedging. We believe the weak result has been priced-in given the recent weakness in share price. We expect strong 1Q11 earnings to be the short-term catalyst for the stock. Maintain Buy, TP of Rp62,350, implying 28% upside potential and 4% yield. ITMG is trading at attractive 11x FY11F PE below 13x 4-years average and 20x of peak.

INVESTOR DIGEST Equity Research | 24 February 2011 KIJA to sign 20 years power plant agreement with PLN today; ITMG : Disappointing FY10 results, 33.7% below consensus - Mandiri Sekuritas

Bekasi Kawasan Jababeka: KIJA to sign 20 years power plant agreement with PLN today (KIJA, Rp104, Buy, TP: Rp133)
 Bekasi Power (BP), a subsidiary of Kawasan Jababeka (KIJA), has finally announced the signing plan of Joint-Operation Agreement (JO/KSO Jual Beli) with PLN with regards to the long waited power plant plant, which is scheduled today. The JO will have a tenor of 20 years.
 PLN will be the 100% off-taker of the 130MW gas fired power plant capacity. In the mean time, BP will have an option to buy back electricity from PLN to ensure supply to the industrial tenants within Jababeka Industrial Estate. Scheduled COD of the power plant is Dec11.
 The power plant deal with PLN is the main catalyst for KIJA that people has been expecting since early of 2010. The sales pricing is indicated to be ±9 cents/kwh. KIJA would potentially obtain some US$80mn of annual power revenues (with 35% EBITDA margin), which expected to contribute 75% of total revenue onwards. Our 2011F valuation stands KIJA at Rp455/share. We call Buy with TP Rp133/share that we may revise higher, reducing discount that we put earlier due to the lingering deal. The stock currently trades at a very attractive 77% discount to our RNAV11F and PE11F 6.1x.

Indotambang : Disappointing FY10 results, 33.7% below consensus (ITMG, Rp48,600, Neutral, TP: Rp53,800)
 Despite FY10 expectation of production of 22Mt (Q4 : 5.6Mt), with Q4 higher than average quarterly production for the 3 quarters in 9M10 of 5.5Mt, quarterly net profit fell 73.8% qoq. Operating profit was 17.7% below consensus of US$440.7mn. Mining cost and cost of dispatch and demurrage were seen as the main reason (below table). We are looking to see whether this is a one-off event or pattern to continue in 2011. At Rp48,600, ITMG is trading at FY11F and FY12F PER of 13.1x, and 10.9x, respectively.



* Intraco Penta (INTA) – signed distribution agreement for heavy equipment brand Sinotruk, produced by China National Heavy Truck company, that reportedly claims a 20% market share in China. During the signing event, CEO Petrus Halim told the press that INTA’s heavy equipment sales has grown by 70% yoy to Rp1.9trn in FY10, driving the 121% yoy growth in net profit to Rp83bn in FY10. My take – INTA has not released FY10 audited results, so the CEO guidance on FY10 profit (perhaps unaudited) is new news to the market, that implies an impressive 4Q10 net profit of Rp35.5bn (1Q10=Rp13.5bn, 2Q10=17.5bn, 3Q10=16.5bn). Based on such result, the management’s ambition to hit FY11 net profit target of Rp210bn may increasingly look more credible, that would imply FY11 P/E of under 6x. During the signing ceremony, Mr.Halim also mentioned the plan to raise US$150mn financing through bonds and rights issue, and the ambition to acquire a coal mine.

* Indika Energy (INDY) – there is a one full page colour advert on PT Mitra Bahtera Segarasejati (MBSS), the company that INDY is looking to acquire through an IPO. MBSS is an integrated transport and logistic coal service company. MBSS looks like a good company with strong entry barriers, that is set to grow by 30 plus percent. The market has been somewhat concerned with the possibility of INDY over-paying the deal, but we do not think it is a likely case. Should be a good deal for INDY. BUY.

* Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA) – IDX official Mr. Eddy Sugito told the press that BLTA’s subsidiary, PT Buana Listya Tama, is planning an IPO to raise US$120mn by selling a 39% stake (implied market cap of US$307mn). BLTA’s current market cap is US$440mn.

* Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) – Bisnis Indonesia’s press article highlights the fact that Bahana Securities’ MKBD (net adjusted working capital) has fallen by 59% to Rp82bn when GIAA shares hit Rp570, or 24% lower from IPO price. Danareksa’s MKBD has fallen by 53% to Rp222bn as of 23 Feb. My take – Bahana, Danareksa, and Mandiri Securities have fully underwritten the IPO. Interpolating from these figures, it appears that a Rp10 down move in GIAA share price has resulted in Rp6.5bn reduction in Bahana’s MKBD. If the sensitivity is correct, Bahana’s MKBD could turn negative when GIAA’s share price hits Rp440/share.

Bea Keluar CPO 25% - Investor Daily

JAKARTA - Kementerian Perdagangan menetapkan bea keluar minyak sawit mentah (crude palm oil/CPO) untuk pengiriman Maret 2011 sebesar 25 persen, sama dengan bulan sebelumnya. Sementara itu, harga patokan ekspor komoditas tersebut sebesar US$ 1.222 metrik ton.

"Ada kenaikan 28 dolar AS, sehingga harga referensi bulan Maret menjadi 1.294,53 dolar AS per metrik ton," kata Direktur Jenderal Perdagangan Luar Negeri Kementerian Perdagangan Deddy Saleh di Jakarta, Rabu.

Pada Februari 2011 harga patokan ekspor CPO sebesar US$ 1.194 per metrik ton dan harga referensinya US$ 1.266,00 per metrik ton.

Sejak 1 April 2010, pemerintah menggunakan skema penetapan bea keluar ekspor CPO progresif berdasarkan perkembangan harga CPO internasional.

Menurut Peraturan Menteri Keuangan No.67/2010 tentang penetapan barang ekspor yang dikenakan bea keluar dan tarif bea keluar, bea keluar CPO ditetapkan berdasarkan harga referensi yang dihitung dari rata-rata harga CPO di Rotterdam, Belanda, satu bulan sebelumnya.

Beberapa kalangan berpendapat pengenaan bea keluar CPO dengan skema tersebut menimbulkan ketidakpastian biaya bagi eksportir dan menyarankan pemerintah mengenakan bea keluar dengan besaran rata dalam ekspor CPO.

Direktur Eksekutif Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia (GAPKI) Fadhil Hasan menyarankan pemerintah menetapkan bea keluar CPO rata sebesar tiga persen pada tingkat harga CPO dunia US$ 700 per ton atau lebih. Selain itu, membebaskan bea keluar produk turunannya supaya kebijakan itu bisa menjadi instrumen stabilisasi harga minyak sawit, sekaligus pendorong perkembangan industri hilir kelapa sawit dalam negeri.

Menurut perhitungan pengamat ekonomi pertanian dari Institut Pertanian Bogor (IPB) Hermanto Siregar, bea keluar CPO rata sebesar 10-11 persen dari harga akan berdampak baik bagi pengembangan industri hulu maupun hilir kelapa sawit. (tk/ant)

Oil could surge to $220 amid regional unrest - Gulf News

Prices will soar if North African exports slow or stop, but Opec and IEA say they will step in to address shortages
By Yazad Darasha, Business News Editor
Published: 00:00 February 24, 2011

Dubai: Oil prices will see a further surge — all the way to $220 a barrel — this year if the political unrest in North Africa slows or halts exports from Libya and Algeria, analysts said.

Brent crude futures hovered near $110 a barrel yesterday as turmoil in Libya fuelled fears that unrest could spread to other oil-producing nations and choke supplies.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped to $98 a barrel in New York yesterday while spot Brent saw an increase to over $109 in London trading — their highest in more than two years — as Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi vowed to fight until his "last drop of blood".

According to analysts at Nomura Holding, oil prices may surge to $220 a barrel this year if political unrest continues. "If Libya and Algeria were to halt oil production together, prices could peak above $220 a barrel," the bank said.

At the other end of the spectrum, Barclays Capital analysts said WTI prices may increase to an annual average of $106 this year from $91 last year. "At present, we do not expect a significant hit to oil supply, but such a scenario, if it were to materialise, would clearly be even more supportive for prices," BarCap analyst Paul Horsnell said.

Horsnell expects oil prices to continue rising well into the middle of this decade.

John Siddarth C.P., an analyst with Frost & Sullivan, said that if the crisis in the Middle Eastern countries continues, oil prices could touch $115 to $120 a barrel "within the next two weeks".

This would "risk the stability of the economy", as oil prices contribute to global inflationary pressures, he said.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that it will dip into reserves if exports drop.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al Nuaimi said on Tuesday that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will boost output if there is a shortage.

Opec member Libya produces 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. At least some 100,000 barrels per day, around 6 per cent of Libya's production, have already been shut in as companies batten their hatches in the face of growing unrest.

Oil Prices Rise and Wall Street Stocks Drift Lower - The New York Times

Oil prices continued to climb and stocks drifted lower on Wednesday as reports emerged about the disruptions of crude operations in Libya.

As the fighting in Libya raised the prospect of turmoil spreading in the Middle East and North Africa and weighed on global financial markets, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi has kept his grip on the capital, Tripoli, but large areas of the east of the country remained out of his control. There were also indications that the fighting had reached the northwest of the country.

Oil companies responded by starting to curtail operations and evacuate workers, according to media reports. The Italian company Eni said in a statement that natural gas supplies from Libya via the Greenstream pipeline have been suspended, but that it would still be able to meet customer demand.

ENI, the Italian oil company, Repsol of Spain, Total of France, Statoil of Norway and BASF, the German chemical and energy company, have halted much if not most of their oil production in Libya and moved personnel out of the country. Others, including the British giant, BP, said earlier that they were evacuating workers.

Much of Libya’s oil producing capacity and port operations are in the eastern part of the country where the government has lost most political control.

In a research note, Barclays Capital estimated that around 1 million barrels a day of production has been halted, or more than half the country’s total. more ...

Indo Tambangraya 2010 net profit plunges 39 pct - Reuters

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah , Indonesia's no.3 coal miner, said on Wednesday that its 2010 net profit down more than 39 percent on higher finance costs and loss on derivative transactions.

The firm, a unit of Thai's Banpu , posted a $204.15 million net profit in 2010, versus $335.55 million a year earlier. The company's net revenue climbed 10 percent to $1.67 billion.

It missed a consensus of 15 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S to post a full-year 2010 net profit of $284.8 million.

Indonesia motorcycle sales up 32.2 pct in Jan y/y - Reuters

Indonesia's domestic motorcycle sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rose 32.2 percent to 664,983 units in January compared to last year, industry data showed on Wednesday.

Domestic motorcycle sales volumes were led by Honda , Yamaha and Suzuki , according to data from Indonesia's Motorcycle Industry (AISI).

Total sales volume in 2010 was about 7.4 million units, with 513,343 units sold in December, the association said.

Crude Palm Oil Lower On CBOT Soyoil; Liquidation - Palm OilHQ

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday as investors liquidated long positions tracking general weakness across most commodity markets.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR155 lower at MYR3,514 a metric ton, off the intraday high of MYR3,558/ton.

Chicago March soyoil also weighed on palm oil prices; soyoil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended 4.4% lower at 53.99 cents a pound Tuesday; the contract was also 0.5% lower in screen trade around 1020 GMT.

Palm oil prices were also lower as rains have eased in Malaysia’s major palm growing regions and February production may rise as much as 5%-6% compared with the previous month, said a Singapore-based trader.

January palm oil production reached 1.06 million metric tons, according to data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board.

Palm oil prices could correct further as output gradually rises in Malaysia and Indonesia, Lee Oi Hian, chief executive of Malaysian palm oil producer Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd. (2445.KU), said.

“While palm oil’s fundamentals are still good, the market has risen too high. The rally may be running out of steam and CPO may ease to MYR3,300-MYR3,500/ton,” Lee told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview.

The market expects fresh cues from Malaysia’s export estimates for the Feb. 1-25 period to be released by cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. Friday, but exports are likely to be a tad lower or might remain unchanged, said two trading executives in Kuala Lumpur.

Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-20 period fell 3.2% from a month earlier, to 825,180 tons, cargo surveyor Intertek Agri Services said Monday.

If unrest continues in Libya, a key oil producer, U.S. crude could rally further, pulling along prices of palm oil, which is used as a feedstock in biofuels that competes with petroleum diesel, said a second Singapore-based trader.

However, right now people are being cautious. “There are a lot of sellers in the market, but nobody wants to buy until the political situation settles down a bit,” he added.

An executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage pegged immediate support for BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures at MYR3,470/ton.

The most active rupiah-denominated crude palm oil contract for May on the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange was last trading 4.4% lower at IDR10,285 a kilogram at 1005 GMT.

Many trades were reported in the cash market, with palm olein for April, May, June trading from $1,200/ton to $1,205/ton and July, August, September from $1,135/ton to $1,137.50/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based physical market trader.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR130 lower at MYR3,620/ton.

Open interest on the BMD was 109,347 lots versus 111,542 lots Tuesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 31,278 lots of CPO were traded versus 29,573 lots Tuesday

Rabu, 23 Februari 2011

IDX Composite Ends Up, Regional Markets Fall - The Indonesia Today

Composite index of IDX closed up by 0.67% at 3,474.12 mainly supported by gains in blue chips stocks. Meanwhile, regional markets mostly in red zone.
Crown holder ASII inched up 0.48% and Bank BCA hiked 2.40%, while Bank Mandiri fell 2.52% and PT Telkom stood flat.

In mining, ITMG soared 4.29%, Adaro surged 3.16%, Bukit Asam increased 3.06%, and Bumi gained 2.78%.

Banking stocks also followed the trend. State bank BRI gained 1.05%, while Bank Danamon and BNI increased 0.81% and 0.73% respectively.

Some stocks made their substantial gains such as IGAR (+11.58%), BTEL (+9.09%), AKRA (+8.11%), MNCN (+3.00%), and UNVR (+2.95%). State airline GIAA also rebounded 1.92% to Rp530 per share.

In regional markets, Nikkei fell 0.80%, Kospi declined 0.42%, Straits Times and Hang Seng lost 0.36%, All Ordinaries retreated 0.24% and KLSE slipped 0.17%. Meanwhile, Shanghai SSE advanced 0.25%.

The rupiah strengthened 0.18% to Rp8,857 against the dollar. Crude oil stood flat at US$93.57 per barrel after yesterday boost due to Middle East and North Africa havoc.

Ancora Sets Up Unit Named Ancora Indonesia Mining - The Indonesia Today

PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk (OKAS), owned by Gita Wirjawan, has in January 7, 2011 established unit named as PT Ancora Indonesia Mining (AIM).
The unit has paid-up capital of Rp249 million, where 99.60% ownership was held by OKAS, and PT Ancora Shipping, OKAS's unit, owned the rest 0.40%. OKAS' other two units are PT Multi Nitrotama Kimia and PT Bormindo Nusantara.

Forum Masyarakat Peduli Keadilan (FMPK/Justice Care Community Forum) had last month reported PT Ancora Mining Service (AMS) to the Tax Office for tax-evasion allegation. But OKAS had denied to own PT Ancora Mining Service (AMS).

At 03.33 pm Jakarta time, OKAS shares lost 1.67% to Rp295 per share. Year to date, the number had tumbled 20.7% from Rp370 per share at December 30, 2010.

As per end January 2011, OKAS is owned by PT Ancora Resources (50%), DBS Bank Ltd SA Summber Harvest Pte Ltd (17%), and Sarasin-Rabo Nominees (Singapore) Pte Ltd (11%), while the balance (22%) were taken by public.

Berlian Tanker to pay US$170 mio orders - Insider Stories

One of Indonesian giants oil and gas shipping company PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) sets US$165 million-US$170 million to complete their gradual payment of the order of 7 chemical and gas tankers by 2012.

Belian Tanker Director of Finance Kevin Wong stated half of the ordered tankers will be delivered in the middle of the year and will be used to support their current 96 unit fleets.

We require US$120 million to pay off the 3 ships that will be delivered in the middle of this year. For next year, we need another US$45 million-US$50 million,” as he said, today.
About US$70 million of the total payment will use loan facility from a consortium of 6 Singaporean banks in the amount of US$685 million. A US$593 million loan from it is allocated for international refinancing that will be mature this year.

Nestle Acquires 28 Hectars of Suryacipta City Industry Read more about Nestle - The Indonesia Today

PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) said its unit PT Suryacipta Swadaya (SCS), developer of Suryacipta City of Industry, had secured the commitment from PT Nestle Indonesia to buy 28 hectars of industry land area located in Karawang, West Java.

With the land acquisition, Nestle Indonesia becomes the new anchor tenant in Suryacipta City of Industry, following PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) and its subsidiaries.

SSIA said its land acquisition commitment totaled 145 hectars valuing of around US$53 million in the first quarter of this year. For the whole year of 2011, SSIA targets to sell 170 hectars of industry land area.

The company targets revenue to reach above Rp2 trillion, of which 25% will be contributed by Suryacipta Swadaya. While net profit is targeted to grow by 30%.

Intraco Penta FY10 profit jumps 121% - Insider Stories

Indonesia’s heavy equipment distributor, PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) recorded a 70% revenue rise or amounting Rp1.9 trillion compared to 2009's figure.

Intraco’s Finance Director Fred L Manibog said that the profit growth soared by 121% following such revenue jump. Intraco posted Rp83 billion profit in 2010, a 121.33% increase from Rp37.5 billion a year earlier.

Fred said that at the moment, Intraco recorded Rp473.1 billion total equity or 22% rebound compared to the same period in 2009. Intraco’s asset surged by 33%, reaching IDR1.48 trillion compared to the previous year.

Laba Bersih Metrodata 2010 Naik 150% -

Jakarta - PT Metrodata Electronics Tbk (MTDL) mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp25,16 miliar atau naik 150% dibanding periode sama tahun lalu sebesar Rp10,06 miliar.

"Sesuai dengan target, laba bersih tahun 2010 tumbuh 150% yang didukung oleh pertumbuhan penjualan kami," tutur Susanto Djaja, Presiden Direktur MTDL, Rabu (23/2).

Susanto mengatakan, penjualan perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang distribusi produk IT dan komputer tersebut mengalami pertumbuhan sekitar 11%. Penjualan 2010 diperkirakan mencapai Rp3,77 triliun dibandingkan periode sama sebelumnya sebesar Rp3,39 triliun. "Tapi ini masih dalam proses audit," kata Susanto.

Penjualan perseroan terutama dikontribusikan dari PT Metrodata E Business, anak usaha yang bergerak di bidang distribusi yakni sebesar 50%. Sedangkan sisanya diperoleh dari unit bisnis lainnya antara lain dari bidang solusi bisnis dan perangkat lunak.

Susanto pun tidak bersedia mengungkapkan berapa target pertumbuhan yang dicapai perseroan pada tahun ini. "Kita lihat laba tahun lalu meningkat 150%, ini ditunjang oleh adanya terobosan-terobosan dalam bisnis kami. kami harap dengan adanya terobosan baru seperti joint venture dengan distributor IT dari Taiwan, Synnex, akan mendukung pertumbuhan bisnis kami menjadi lebih baik," ujar Susanto.

RUPS LPKR Setujui Bagi Dividen Rp150 Miliar -

RUPS PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) menyetujui rencana Perseroan untuk membagi dividen sebesar total Rp150 miliar.

Persetujuan ini sejalan dengan pengumuman LPKR pada bulan September 2010 tentang kebijakan pembayaran dividen interim dan final secara teratur. LPKR akan membayar dividen final sebesar total Rp150 miliar, yang merupakan payout ratio sebesar 28,6%, atau setara dengan yield 1,6%.

Dividen interim sebesar Rp50 miliar telah dibayarkan pada tanggal 1 Desember 2010, dan para pemegang saham akan menerima dividen final ini setelah dilakukannya proses administrasi sesuai ketentuan yang berlaku.

Pada RUPS ini, para pemegang saham menyetujui penunjukan Dewan Komisaris, Komisaris Independen, dan Direksi Perseroan. Tidak ada penunjukan anggota Dewan Komisaris baru sedangkan Roberto Feliciano dan Ivan Setiawan Budiono ditunjuk sebagai anggota Direksi baru.

Ketut Budi Wijaya, Presiden Direktur LPKR, optimistis untuk memanfaatkan momentum kuatnya penjualan perumahan saat ini, dan sedang dalam perkembangan untuk meningkatkan skala bisnis rumah sakit, mal, dan bisnis manajemen aset. "Saya sangat antusias dan sangat berharap untuk dapat lebih mendorong strategi pertumbuhan kami dalam rangka mengubah LPKR dari suatu grup property dengan nilai 3 miliar dolar AS menjadi 8 miliar dolar AS."

Bakrie's Palm oil output to jump nearly 25 pct in 2011 - Commodities Now

Palm oil output at Bakrie Sumatera will jump by nearly 25 percent this year, while its plantation estates will expand by an additional 5,000 hectares, the company said on Tuesday. The strong production rise is due to some plantations coming into peak yield, Ambono Janurianto, president director at the planter, has told Reuters, while acreage will increase from the company's own landbank.

"The ramp up production is going to be quite strong because of the low and immature plantation -- we have a high concentration of immature plantations," said Janurianto. Bakrie Sumatera, the agricultural unit of the politically connected Bakrie Group, produced 220,000/230,000 tonnes of palm oil last year, and sees 280,000 tonnes in 2011.

The firm had about 134,000 hectares of plantations in 2010 this year -- mainly in Sumatra -- versus 119,000 hectares in 2009. About 80 percent is planted with palm oil and the rest with natural rubber. In "2011, we are only going to be planting - - it is not going to be an aggressive one (expansion)," he said. "We are only going to greenfield plantings," he said, referring to a practice of a company only clearing and using its own landbank.

The majority of Bakrie Sumatera's estates are located in the island of Sumatra. Since early 2007, the company has expanded into Central Kalimantan and is currently developing greenfield estates there.

Late last year Bakrie Sumatera bought control of the distressed assets of Domba Mas Group. Dobma Mas specialises in oleochemical and palm oil products and mainly operates in North Sumatera province, with its most prized asset a plant in Kuala Tanjung.

Oleochemicals are derived from biological oils or fats and are largely used to produce bio-diesel and cosmetics. "We are going to concentrate and put all our resources into Dobma Mas," he said. "The first plant (will be running) in April."

Janurianto, who was previously the chief financial officer of the company, said there were no acquisitions planned this year. Jakarta-listed Bakrie Sumatera is one of Indonesia's oldest plantations companies, with a history dating back to 1911.

Global palm oil production stood at about 45 million tonnes in 2010, with India buying about 8 million tonnes, China 7 million, and Europe 6 million. Bakrie Sumatera sells most of its palm oil to traders for markets in China and India. The benchmark May crude palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange hit a near three-year high at 3,967 ringgit ($1,307) this month, on worries that output would fail to keep pace with robust demand.

"It will stay quite high," he said. "(But) It is not going to be at 4,000 (ringgit)" Janurianto sees firm palm oil prices this year, within an average range between 3,500-3,800 ringgit. One area of concern however, is Indonesia's export tax for crude palm oil (CPO), which rose to 25 percent in February from 20 percent in January, as it seeks to ensure that domestic requirements are met.

"Every month there is change in the tax rate," he added. "What if I do a sale last month, delivery this month, eventually I have to come up with an additional 5 percent.

Indonesia’s Bank Danamon Stirs Takeover Interest, FT Reports - Bloomberg

PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, which had net income of $320 million last year, is the object of takeover interest at several foreign companies, including Bank of China Ltd., Standard Chartered Plc and Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd., the Financial Times reported, citing an unidentified person close to Danamon and unidentified bankers.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Purkiss in London

World Economy Can Survive Oil Price Surge for Now, IMF Says - Bloomberg

The world economy can withstand the surge in oil prices sparked by unrest in the Middle East and North Africa so long as the increase proves short-lived, said the International Monetary Fund’s No. 2 official, echoing Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Futures for April delivery climbed to within $2 of $100 a barrel in New York today, and London-traded Brent rose to $108.57, close to the highest since September 2008, as escalating violence in Libya stoked concern supplies from the region will be disrupted. Oil in New York has gained almost 6 percent since Jan. 24, the day before the first anti-government protests erupted in Egypt.

“It’s unlikely it would make a substantial change in the global economic outlook,” John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, told Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” today. The Washington-based lender assumed oil would average about $95 a barrel this year when it forecast global economic growth of 4.4 percent for 2011, he said.

Political unrest that has swept from Tunisia to Yemen, Algeria, Bahrain and Iran in the past four weeks is fanning oil’s advance at a time when the global economy is emerging from the deepest recession in more than 50 years. U.S. consumer confidence rose to its highest level in three years this month, according to a report today. Data showed yesterday that German business confidence increased to a record in February.

While an extended $10 advance in oil cuts 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth over two years, the world’s biggest economy will expand 3.8 percent this year, almost a percentage point more than in 2010, according to Deutsche Bank. more ...