World Economy Can Survive Oil Price Surge for Now, IMF Says - Bloomberg

The world economy can withstand the surge in oil prices sparked by unrest in the Middle East and North Africa so long as the increase proves short-lived, said the International Monetary Fund’s No. 2 official, echoing Deutsche Bank AG and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Futures for April delivery climbed to within $2 of $100 a barrel in New York today, and London-traded Brent rose to $108.57, close to the highest since September 2008, as escalating violence in Libya stoked concern supplies from the region will be disrupted. Oil in New York has gained almost 6 percent since Jan. 24, the day before the first anti-government protests erupted in Egypt.

“It’s unlikely it would make a substantial change in the global economic outlook,” John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, told Bloomberg Television’s “Inside Track” today. The Washington-based lender assumed oil would average about $95 a barrel this year when it forecast global economic growth of 4.4 percent for 2011, he said.

Political unrest that has swept from Tunisia to Yemen, Algeria, Bahrain and Iran in the past four weeks is fanning oil’s advance at a time when the global economy is emerging from the deepest recession in more than 50 years. U.S. consumer confidence rose to its highest level in three years this month, according to a report today. Data showed yesterday that German business confidence increased to a record in February.

While an extended $10 advance in oil cuts 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth over two years, the world’s biggest economy will expand 3.8 percent this year, almost a percentage point more than in 2010, according to Deutsche Bank. more ...