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Jumat, 25 Februari 2011

Astra Int’l , a strong 2010 - CLSA

So, the whisper number on Astra's net profit is wrong. Instead of 5% below consensus, the figure came in 7% above consensus.

Overall strong 2010 but margin dragged by United Tractors (UNTR IJ). UNTR’s operating margins declined to 13.8% from 17.7% due to heavy rainfall and a strengthening Rupiah impacting mining contractor Pama's profitability. The good news is that UNTR’s numbers are looking strong in Jan 2011.

Heavy equipment sales is an all time high at 731 units, 55% market share, and 2.1x the sales in Jan 2010. Wet weather still problematic for coal production, but strip ratio had improved.

There are some challenges and regulatory speed bump ahead. But the reality is that reality is that motorcycles (and cars) are the most effective mode of transportation because of lack of decent public transportation. Just this morning two of our dealers were talking about too many motorcycles in this city, some with very aggressive driving habits. And this is not going to change anytime soon.

Our analyst Sarina maintains her BUY call on the stock.

Key points from the report:
Better than expected FY10 results. Net profit at 3% above our forecast and 7% above consensus’ expectation. Revenue 3-5% above analysts’ forecasts. 4Q10 revenue and profit +6% and +2% QoQ respectively. FY10 profit +43% YoY to Rp14.3tn, with revenue +32% YoY to Rp129.9tn.
However, operating margin in FY10 dropped to 11.3% from 12.9% in FY09 driven by a drop in UNTR operating margin to 13.8% from 17.7% in 2009. UNTR's operational continued to be hampered by unfavourable weather conditions and a weak US dollar in 2010.
The good news is that UNTR’s January's equipment sales was at an all-time high; and strip-ratio had improved.
Regulatory speed bump ahead. We expect car sales to slow down by 10% this year: higher vehicle taxes + ban on subsidized fuel purchases for cars looming in the future.
We think more likely a short-term shock. Longer term still attractive due to lack of public transport for the foreseeable future and low car penetration at 4%.
Commodity as a hedge. 30% of its earnings come from its commodity-related businesses, mainly UNTR and Astra Agro (AALI IJ).
Remains a “BUY”. ASII share price has slumped from its peak on regulatory changes and runaway inflation fears. ASII remains a key market proxy to Indonesia’s compelling growth story.
Valuation: now trading at 13.8x PE11; our SOTP-based TP implies a 25% upside.
Dividend of Rp1,130/sh will be proposed at the AGM in May2011, bringing total dividend to Rp1,600/sh vs Rp1,120/sh in 2009, a 43% increase.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.11

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