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Selasa, 22 Februari 2011

Alam Sutera – Best location (ASRI-BUY-IDR255-TP:IDR400) - Bahana Sekuritas

Closest to Jakarta; 69% EPS growth in 2011, the highest in the sector
Compared to other township developments in the vicinity like Bumi Serpong Damai, Summarecon Serpong, Modernland and Lippo Karawaci (exhibit 6), the location of Alam Sutera (ASRI) is the closest to Jakarta, around 15.4km via toll road. Therefore, ASRI’s expansions should continue to result in not only successful marketing sales but also higher selling prices. We maintain ASRI as our top pick on the back of these factors:
§ Robust 2011 EPS growth of 69% y-y, higher than sector’s average of 12.9% (exhibit 7).
§ High selling prices lead to higher margins as ASRI’s above-sector operating and net margins grow respectively to 34% and 30% in 2011 from 27.4% and 23.3% in 2009 (exhibit 8).
§ Positive operating cash flow should support the company’s solid balance sheet going forward. We estimate ASRI to remain in net cash position in 2011 with 7% debt to asset ratio.
§ 9.7% market ytd market underperformance means 2011 P/E of 10.6x, the lowest in the sector.

2011 marketing sales of IDR1.7t
ASRI plans several launches ahead to reach its 2011 marketing sales target of IDR1.7t (exhibit 9). This year, the company will launch residential clusters in three different areas located in Alam Sutra, targeted towards the middle and middle up market segment. With enrollment to start in 2012, Bina Nusantara (Binus) will start construction of its university building this year, paving the way for ASRI to launch the second apartment tower for students in 2011. Combined with shop-house launches, ASRI is on target to achieve IDR1.5t marketing sales from the Serpong area while the remaining IDR200b will come from residential launches in Pasar Kemis, Tangerang in 2H11.

Higher selling prices to persist
Exhibit 10 shows that ASRI’s land selling prices have been on an uptrend since 2007 with the commercial segment widening the gap relative to residential selling prices. Hence, ASRI’s master plan of developing more commercial areas at the heart of Alam Sutera’s location will support higher selling prices ahead. After succeeding to launch 102 shop houses at 12% y-y higher average selling price early this year, ASRI plans to launch a new residential area with 13.6% higher average land selling price of IDR5m/sqm.

Commercial development: On track
ASRI remains on track to develop its commercial area to provide recurring incomes in the coming years. With the construction of 60,000sqm retail mall having reached the 1st floor and operating date scheduled for early 2012, ASRI has recently obtained commitment from 60% of its tenants. By 2012, this mall and Flavor Bliss, an open air dining area, we estimate to provide 4% recurring contribution. While Living World Mall is not owned by ASRI, its opening last week has benefited ASRI, causing more traffic in this area.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 23.03

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