Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 05 Februari 2011

Indonesia Stocks: Bakrie & Brothers, Bank Central Asia, Medco - Bloomberg

Shares of the following companies had unusual moves in Indonesian trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are as of the 4 p.m. Jakarta-time close.

The Jakarta Composite index climbed 15.34 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,496.17, rising for a second week. The market was shut yesterday for a public holiday.

Banks: PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Indonesia’s biggest bank by market value, rose 2.6 percent to 6,000 rupiah. PT Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), the third-biggest state-owned bank, advanced 3 percent to 3,400 rupiah.

Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 6.75 percent, the first increase since October 2008. The move helps avoid a bigger interest rate increase later this year to curb inflation, said Putut Endro Andanawarih, a director at PT First State Investments Indonesia, which manages about $300 million in assets in Jakarta.

PT Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR IJ), an investment company, advanced 1.5 percent to 67 rupiah. The company’s unit, PT Bakrie Power, plans to build a steam power plant with Samsung C&T Corp. that may cost more than $2 billion, Investor Daily Indonesia reported, citing Bakrie & Brothers Chief Executive Officer Bobby Gafur Umar. Bakrie & Brothers Corporate Secretary Sri Dharmayanti couldn’t be reached when called at her office.

PT Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ), Indonesia’s largest listed oil company, climbed 1.5 percent to 3,325 rupiah, the highest close since Jan. 5. Crude oil futures advanced 0.3 percent to $90.78 a barrel in after-hours trading in New York, on course for a second weekly gain.

To contact the reporter on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta

Franklin Templeton Controls 5.15% Danamon - The Indonesia Today

Franklin Templeton Investments controls 5.16% of the total issued shares of Bank Danamon through additional purchase of stocks early this week.

Lori A Weber, Assistant Secretary of Franklin Resources Inc, told the Capital Market Supervisory Agency (Bapepam) yesterday that FTIF-T Asian Growth Fund, a Luxembourg Company, has on February 2nd, 2011 acquired 3.695 million ordinary shares at Rp5990 per share.

With the purchase, FTIF-T Asian Growth Fund now holds 434.37 million ordinary shares of Bank Danamon Indonesia, constituting 5.16% of the total paid up shares.

The fund also purchased 6.59 million shares at Rp5936 on Feb 1, 2.72 million Danamon shares on January 28 at Rp6100 per share and 2.6 million shares on Jan 31 at Rp6036/share.

Danamon closed higher by 1.67% to Rp6100 on Friday (Feb 4). At that price, Franklin Templeton's ownership in Danamon is worth Rp2.65 trillion or about US$293 million.

META requires Rp5 trio financing - Insider Stories

Rajawali Group, controlled by Indonesian tycoon Peter Sondakh, gave an oppurtunity to PT Nusantara Infrastructure  Tbk (META) to obtain financing from loans and equity to acquire and develop infrastructure of green field project.

The company requires Rp4 trillion-Rp5 trillion this year to acquire projects which have generated a lot of profits to the company as well as to seek a strategic partner to develop the green field project.
President Director of Nusantara Infrastructure M. Ramdani Basri said that the company has asked Rajawali

Group to support the funding by proposing loans to banks, creditors, and equity.
“We ask a commitment from the shareholders to fund the company, if the company needs a big fund and the sharesholders could not provide it then they have to be diluted,” he said.

This year, as he said, Nusantara Infrastructure requires between Rp4 trillion and Rp5 trillion to fulfill acquisition needs. A number of projects are under review, five projects consist of toll road, port, power plant and airport construction.

Ramdani refused to give the detail about the target projects but he ensured that those projects are of big scale.

“Port construction, for example, it will spend US$2 billion to US$3 billion.”
In the extraordinary meeting of shareholders last Wednesday, the public investors gave an authority to the Directors to propose bank loans.

US Stocks inch up on Wall St as US jobless rate falls - Daily Telegraph

US stocks were rising modestly in early trade today after a mixed employment report showed the unemployment rate fell last month but new jobs remained scarce.

The Government said unemployment in January dropped to 9.0 per cent from 9.4 per cent in December.
But the Labour Department report said that only 36,000 new jobs were created, the fewest in four months.

In early trade, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 15 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 12,075.
The S&P 500 was up 2, or 0.1 per cent, to 1309, and the Nasdaq composite index was up 5, or 0.2 per cent, to 2759.

Coal Mining License (IUP) Already Signed, Minister Says - The Indonesia Today

Minister of Energy & Mineral Resource, Darwin Zahedy Saleh said his ministry has approved and recently signed the coal mining license (IUP) for coal sales and delivery both for domestic or export markets.
“I have signed it,” Darwin told to Detikfinance. “But yes, to sign it needs to be prudent plus other considerations,” he added.

Coal miner Association (APBI) had earlier alleged Energy Minister to have been "punishing" domestic coal trader as the minister pended to sign coal mining license.  (IUP) for coal sales and delivery both for domestic or export markets.

Former APBI chairman Bob Kamandanu Bob said further delay on IUP signing will make the country to suffer loss from royalties on trading. The royalty can reach 5% of export value, excluding 10% added value tax.

Replying to APBI's claim, Darwin said his ministry had very carefully given permission for mining sectors, especially in coal mining activities, as current regulation on the sector is very loose.

“Minerals & Coal is subsector in the ministry with its regulation relatively loose compared to the regulations of Electricity and Oil & Gas. That's why we need more considerations, does not meant we missed the bus. Alhamdulillah, I have signed it recently,” Darwin said.

Crude gains as focus remains on Egypt, US employment - The Economic Times

LONDON: Crude oil futures rose on Friday as Egypt’s volatile situation kept markets on edge, and ahead of US employment data due later in the day. US crude was 16 cents up at $90.70 a barrel by 1109 GMT. Brent crude for March rose by 20 cents to $101.95 a barrel.

Brent touched $103.37 on Thursday, the highest intraday price since Sept. 26, 2008. “Everybody is watching what is happening in Egypt, it seems to be a crucial day,” Credit Agricole CIB analyst Christophe Barret said. Analysts said prices were likely to remain strong while the protests continue.

Egyptians fighting to oust president Hosni Mubarak hoped to rally a million people on Friday while the United States worked to convince the 82-year-old leader to begin handing over power.

“The OPEC president has said that oil above $100 is not desirable, but while Middle-East unrest continues prices will probably hold around here,” Bache Commodities analyst Christopher Bellew said. “The terrible fear must be of this unrest spreading to a major producing country like Saudi.”

Front-month Brent has rallied more than $7 since unrest in Egypt started 10 days ago, from about $95 a barrel on Jan. 25. That 8% gain is more than a third of last year’s total increase of 22%.

“Given the continued protests in Egypt and the risk of the troubles spreading to other Arab countries, crude oil should be well protected on the downside and Brent should manage to sustain the $100 mark,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.

Tarif Tol Naik Lagi Mulai Agustus - Detikfinance

Jakarta - Beberapa ruas tol yang dikelola PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) akan naik di Agustus atau September tahun 2011. Namun hingga kini perseroan belum mengajukan usulan kenaikan tarif kepada pemerintah, yang nantinya akan diputuskan dalam Keputusan Menteri.

"Harus menunggu Kepmen, saat nanti disetujui. Biasanya sekitar September atau Agustus," kata Direktur Utama JSMR, Frans Sunito saat berjumpa di kantor Kementerian BUMN, Jalan Medan Merdeka Selatan, Jakarta, Jumat (4/2/2011).

Kenaikan ruas mengacu pada data inflasi yang dikeluar Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Nantinya keputusan naiknya tarif akan dituangkan dalam Keputusan Menteri.

"Belum kita ajukan. (penerapan tarif baru) menjelang itu, akan permohonan terlebih dahulu. Inflasi yang kami pakai, yang BPS punya," ujarnya.

Diperkirakan, kenaikan tarif tol akan dilakukan pada 11 ruas jalan yang dikelola JMSR, setelah tahun lalu telah dinaikan 2 ruas tol lainnya, yakni ruas Jakarta-Cikampek dan tol Sedyatmo (akses menuju Bandara).

"(Kenaikan) ini memang sesuatu yang berkala. Jika tahun genap kita ada dua ruas yang meningkat, maka di tahun ganjil ada 11 ruas, kecuali Jakarta-Cikampek dan tol Sedyatmo. Kenaikannya mengikuti kenaikan inflasi tahun depan, kita masih tunggu," ucap Direktur Keuangan JSMR Reynaldi, kala itu.

Sepanjang tahun 2010 perseroan meyakini bahwa laba bersih sampai akhir tahun 2010 melebihi Rp 1 triliun, atau melampaui pencapaian tahun sebelumnya, Rp 922 miliar. Peningkatan laba tahun ini disumbang oleh pendapatan usaha yang diprediksi mencapai Rp 4,3 triliun, atau naik 17% dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2009.

Sedangkan, volume kendaraan yang akan menggunakan 13 ruas tol JSMR akan mencapai 960 juta kendaraan. Realisasi volume kendaraan ini dipicu oleh kenaikan traffic hampir di seluruh ruas tol milik JSMR. Rata-rata kenaikan sebesar 3-4%.

Pada tahun ini, JSMR berencana menambah 15 Km ruas baru yaitu tol Semarang-Ungaran. Penambahan ini bagian dari rencana perseroan menambah ruas tol sepanjang 200 Km selama 3 tahun kedepan.

Alokasi belanja modal alias capital expenditure (capex) juga telah disiapkan sebanyak Rp 7 triliun. Dana ini termasuk capex anak usaha dan induk, masing-masing Rp 4 triliun dan Rp 3 triliun.

Timah Almost Lost No. 2 Spot - The Indonesia Today

PT Timah (TINS) Tbk almost lost its position as the second largest tin producer in the world due to substantial drop of production last year.
According to data from International Tin Research Institute (ITRI), Timah is estimated to produce 39,100 tons of tin last year, dropped 13.3% from 2009. Yunnan Tin, China, the world's largest tin producer reported 5.9% output growth to 59,180 tons last year, while third largest Malaysia Smelting Corp (Malaysia) produced 38,737 tons, increased 6.4% from 2009.

Minsur (Peru), the fourth largest, maintained its position with 6.3% growth. Top performer last year was Liuzhou China Tin, which moved up to No 6 from No 8 in 2009 as its output surged 36.2%.

Cargill Tender Offer Saham Sorini Rp 479 Miliar - Detikfinance

PT Cargill Foods Indonesia (CFI) menawarkan tender offer atas 137.029.580 saham PT Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo Tbk (SAAC) di harga Rp 3.500 per lembar dengan total dana yang akan diperoleh Rp 479,603 miliar.

Demikian disampaikan perseroan dalam keterangan tertulisnya seperti dikutip detikFinance, di Jakarta, Jumat (4/2/2011).

CFI siap melakukan penawaran untuk membeli sampai dengan 137.029.580 lembar Sorini Agro Asia, dengan harga tender Rp 3.500 per lembar. Harga tersebut yang dilakukan oleh pihak yang melakukan penawaran tender.

Harga penawaran tersebut lebih tinggi dari rata-rata tertinggi perdagangan harian selama 90 hari terakhir di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), yakni Rp 2.783 per lembar, atau sebelum 15 Desember 2010 yang merupakan pengumuman rencana pengambilalihan.

Transaksi saham sisa tersebut ditawarkan melalui mekanisme perdagangan pasar negosiasi BEI. Pihak-pihak yang melakukan tender, menyatakan telah memiliki cukup dana untuk membeli saham sisa tersebut. Pernyataan ini didukung oleh suatu surat referensi pada 31 Januari 2011 yang dikeluarkan oleh Deutsche Bank AG, Cabang Jakarta, Indonesia.

Pada akhir Januari 2011, CFI telah membeli seluruh saham SAAC milik PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA), sebanyak 629,166,945 saham SAAC (68,82% of saham beredar SAAC).

Pengalihan atau crossing saham terjadi pada 28 Januari 2011 dengan CFI  yang 99,99% sahamnya dimiliki oleh Cargill Luxembourg 6 S.a.r.l.  AKRA menjual saham SAAC kepada Cargill di harga yang sama, Rp 3,500 per lembar secara tunai. AKRA pun telah menerima lebih dari Rp 2,2 triliun.

Transaksi ini stelah mendapatkan persetujuan pemegang saham pada Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) AKRA pada tanggal 26 Januari 2011.

Dalam RUPSLB tersebut, pemegang saham yang mewakili 87.57% dari total saham yang diterbitkan, menghadiri RUPSLB baik hadir secara langsung maupun melalui kuasanya.

American Funds Owns 6.77% Alfamart - The Indonesia Today

SMALLCAP World Fund Inc, a company registered in Maryland, USA, has purchased additional 5.269 million shares of PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT) Tbk, operator of convenience store Alfamart.

With the purchase in the period of January 25-27, 2011, SMALLCAP currently owns 232.49 million ordinary shares or 6.77% of total paid up capital of AMRT.

SMALLCAP purchased the shares in the price range of Rp2699-2700 per share. The last quoted price of AMRT is Rp2750. At that price, the value of SMALLCAP's investment in AMRT is currently Rp639 billion or about US$70 million.

Majority shareholder of AMRT is the family of Djoko Susanto. Djoko's PT Sigmantara Alfindo recently held a placement of 10% shares to strategic investors to raise Rp943 billion or Rp2750 per share.

Jumat, 04 Februari 2011

Asosiasi Asuransi Negara (Asgara) Pembeli Terbesar Saham IPO Garuda - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Asosiasi Asuransi Negara (Asgara) menjadi salah satu pembeli terbesar dalam penawaran publik perdana (initial public offering/IPO) PT Garuda Indonesia (persero) Tbk.
Salah satu anggota asosiasi yang menjadi pembeli terbesar tersebut adalah PT Jaminan Sosial Tenaga Kerja/Jamsostek (persero).
Asuransi BUMN yang tergabung dalam Asgara yakni PT Jasindo,PT Asuransi Jiwasraya, PT Asabri , PT Taspen , PT Jamsostek, PT Jasa Raharja, PT Asuransi Ekspor Indonesia, PT Askes, PT Reasuransi Umum Indonesia.
“Yang lainnya juga ada, dan Asgara  menjadi salah satu yang terbesar. Untuk jumlahnya, kami belum mengetahuinya, karena hal itu hubungan business to business,” kata Parikesit Suprapto, deputi Menteri BUMN bidang perbankan dan jasa keuangan, hari ini.
Menurut dia, Asgara membeli saham Garuda lebih disebabkan karena pertimbangan portofolio investasi.
Dirut Jamsostek Hotbonar Sinaga dalam keterangan resminya menyatakan bahwa pihaknya menyediakan dana antara Rp250 miliar—Rp300 miliar untuk membeli saham Garuda.
“Sebenarnya kami ingin membeli saham dengan jumlah yang lebih besar dari angka itu. Namun ketentuan yang berlaku dalam investasi kami membatasi maksimal hanya dapat mengambil 5 % darifree float," katanya.
Dia mengemukakan pihaknya akan berkomitmen sebagai investor jangka panjang Garuda, dengan tidak melepas kembali saham tersebut dalam jangka waktu 2-3 tahun ke depan.

Strategy: Fuel subsidy has to go - Mandiri Sekuritas

Pressured by persistent high inflation and escalating commodity prices, BI has taken its first 25bps increase in their reference rate to 6.75%. Although the JCI has tendency to fall when rates are rising, an exception took place in 2005. But that was after BI raised rates and government increased fuel price in October. In January 2010, domestic-demand driven sectors such as consumers (JAKCONS) and trade services (JAKTRAD) outperformed the market, a sign that investors were not worried about the sound fundamentals of the domestic economy. We are continuing our recommendation to overweight on commodities (coal rather than palm oil), neutral on financials and consumers, underweight on property and cement.

The first 25bps hike for the year. Inflation registered at 0.89% mom in Jan 11 or 7.02% yoy, higher than our and consensus estimates of 0.57% mom and 0.71% mom respectively. Rising prices of raw food components remained as the culprit for the headline inflation last month, while core inflation was stable at 4.18% yoy. There were indications of wage-increase induced inflation (i.e. housing rental, maid wages, and doctor fee) that potentially drive demand.  With  FAO Food Price Index up by 3.4% in January,  its highest level since they started the measuremen t in 199 0,  BI seemed not to have any choice but to raise its rate to 6.75%.

Record high export in December 10. Indonesia total exports broke another record high reaching US$16.8bn (25.7% yoy) in Dec10, as commodity price continued to surge. Imports hovered around US$13.1bn, resulting in hefty trade surplus of US$3.7bn, jumped from US$2.1bn month earlier. Overall, Indonesia’s trade surplus rose to US$22.1bn in 2010 from US$19.7bn in 2009. The figure lends support for strong domestic-demand theme.

Putting of infrastructure story. With SBY popularity sliding (based on Kompas polling), it is difficult to see him taking ‘non-popular’ policies, for example when it comes to land acquisitions, a major  hindrance for the progress in infrastructure projects. We stick to global theme of improved economic outlook, hence commodity. Despite possible erosion in purchasing power coming from higher prices of basic goods and the reduction of fuel subsidy, industry leaders such as Indofood, and Gudang Garam, will emerge as winners. We believe the victims of rising commodity prices will be mid-sized companies who are unable to come up with additional working capitals and maintaining their inventories.

Siaran Pers Bank Indonesia No. 13 / 3 / PSHM / Humas

Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada 4 Februari 2011 memutuskan untuk menaikkan BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) atau 0,25% menjadi 6,75%. Keputusan tersebut diambil sebagai langkah antisipatif untuk mengendalikan ekspektasi inflasi ke depan yang mulai meningkat. Peningkatan ekspektasi inflasi terutama dipicu oleh kenaikan harga volatile foods yang masih tinggi, di samping karena kenaikan harga komoditi global termasuk minyak dan rencana kebijakan Pemerintah di bidang komoditi strategis. Bank Indonesia akan terus mencermati perkembangan inflasi ke depan, dan memperkuat kebijakan nilai tukar Rupiah yang sesuai dengan upaya mengurangi tekanan inflasi ke depan, serta kebijakan makroprudensial untuk pengendalian likuiditas yang telah ditempuh sejak tahun 2010 yang lalu. Melalui bauran kebijakan moneter dan makroprudensial tersebut, serta langkah-langkah Pemerintah untuk mengatasi tingginya harga komoditi pangan, Dewan Gubernur meyakini inflasi dapat dijaga pada sasarannya yakni 5% ±1% untuk 2011 dan 4,5% ± 1% di 2012

Bank Indonesia Raises Reference Rate to 6.75% From 6.50% - Bloomberg

2011-02-04 06:08:45.316 GMT

By Widya Utami
    Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Bank Indonesia raises its benchmark interest rate
to 6.75 percent from 6.50 percent today, Deputy Governor Halim Alamsyah told
reporters in Jakarta.

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
Widya Utami in Jakarta

APLN:Good news is in place! - Mandiri Sekuritas

There are three major factors that we would think have kept APLN’s stock price underappreciated against its fair value : (1) skepticism of apartment being a choice of home-buyers in Jakarta (2) less optimism on the company in expanding land bank to grow its business; and (3) doubt of its ability to meet its performance targets. Yet, during our recent meeting with its management, the company impressed us with some positive updates that help alleviated such concerns we mentioned above. It booked marketing sales of Rp2.8tn for FY10, 15% above our estimates, and the company is adding its land bank through a new JV partnership for a 14.3ha land in South Jakarta. The company also indicated to book in-line net profit for FY10. Thus, we call buy for APLN with TP: Rp430/share, attractively offering 19% upside from its current price.

FY10 marketing sales: Rp2.8tn. APLN pleased us with its 2010 sales data. Total marketing sales was booked at Rp2.8tn, coming from the company’s current 12 pipe-line projects (Exh. 1). The highly expected 2010 chunk sales contributor, the Central Park (CP) and the Kuningan City (KC) apartments reportedly booked Rp335bn and Rp385bn, respectively, in line with our estimation for KC although slightly below for CP. Yet this was offset by the strata-title office sales that remained 25% out of total 44,869m2 NSA. The company set an ambitious 3.0tn (vs. ours Rp 2.8tn) sales target in 2011, which will be expected mainly contributed by the Green Bay (GB) and CP projects, and the newly acquire d Green Permata (GP).

In line FY10 earnings estimates. Projects completion is on tract as expected (CP apt: 66%; KC apt: 57%), which our 2010 earnings target of Rp242bn was assured to be achieved. The figure implies to ROE 10F of 9.2%, but this expected to increase to 12.7% in 2011.

On scene further expansion. Following recent GP 14.3ha land acquisition, the company indicated that they are now in a close discussion for 6 new potential projects, which among others a project located in prime area of Jakarta and a 40-ha project in outskirt Jakarta. Such active expansion that we expect continuously seeing from APLN going forward considering the minimal land bank that it holds.

Buy with TP: Rp430/share. Given the state of proofs, we call buy for APLN, attractively offering 19% upside from the current market price. Our TP has also included the new GP project whose injection also contributed to further our EPS12F growth to 38% (vs. initial 30%). APLN is currently trading at PE11F 13.6x and 32% discount to our RNAV11F. Risks: (1) meeting 2011 sales target due to market risk (2) delay in project delivery (3) lack of transparency in asset injection.

PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk Gold Will Shine - AAA Securities

In 2011, we expect ANTM ferronickel and nickel ore performances will be surpassed by gold due to: 1) an overhaul of one of its three ferronickel factories, Feni II, hence flat volume. 2) world supply of nickel will outpace demand, hence, nickel’s ASP to remain relatively unchanged. Meanwhile gold volume and its ASP are set to grow higher. HOLD.

±     Robust Production Volume & Sales on Ferronickel and Nickel Ore in 2010
ANTM which produced nickel ore, ferronickel, gold, silver and bauxite, ended 2010 with production performances of 20% yoy, 49% yoy, -5% yoy, -18% yoy, and -87% yoy respectively. Unlike in 2009, in which major revenue contributor came from gold (47% of total), in 2010, ferronickel stepped forward as the new biggest revenue contributor at 52% of total export. Export accounts for 81% of total sales. Ferronickel is a nickel ore processed through pyrometallurgical technology, and is accounted for two-third of stainless steel production. Higher volume (+49% yoy) and sales (+29% yoy) indicated higher level of world demand of ferronickel following a short supply of it in 2010. ASP for ferronickel rose by 49% yoy to US$10.1/lb, as contrast to FY09’s ASP that decreased 32% yoy to US$6.8/lb.

±     Unsustainable Nickel’s ASP Due to High Inventory
For the 2011, nickel performance will be surpassed by gold due to: 1) an overhaul in one of its three ferronickel factories, Feni II, therefore ferronickel production volume is targeted only at 18,000 tones, slightly lower than 2010 at 18,688 tones. 2) Unsustainable nickel spot price which currently stands at US$12.7/lb in LME, while total world’s stock has reachead 134,442 tones, the highest level of world’s inventory in 2008-2010 which averaged at 100,231 tones, at ASP of around US$8.7/lbs.

±     Gold Will Overtake in 2011
Lower gold production in 2010 at 2,780 kg vs. internal target at 3,080 kg was primarily due to bad weather which hindered exploration activities in Cibaliung site. Nevertheless, in 2011 we believe ANTM gold volume production targeted at 3,804 kg will be back on track as bad weather is predicted to end in 1Q11. Furthermore, in our view, US QE2 policy should sustain gold’s ASP at an average of US$1,300/toz in 2011. Hence higher volume and ASP, should boost revenue from gold to around 35% yoy, as opposed to ferronickel and nickel revenue that will expand by 6.5% in FY11F.

±     Valuation, Limited Potential Upside. HOLD
We reinitiate coverage on ANTM with TP at Rp2,500 which is derived from blended valuation to capture long and short-term valuation. Our TP implies 13.2x PE, slightly below its historical average PE at 14x. ANTM is traded at PE 12.2x FY11F. Since our TP only offers 8% potential upside, we recommend HOLD.

Daily 4 Feb 2011 (BMRI,PGAS,BBTN, META) - NISP Sekuritas

Bank Mandiri seeks lowed dividend payout ratio (BMRI, Rp6,100)
·                      Bank Mandiri is seeking for a lowed dividend payout ratio, below 30%, in order to supports its credit expansion. The last dividend payout ratio was 35% from 2009 net income.
·                      The company targets credit this year to grow by 20%-22%  YoY.
·                      It stated that it has not yet heard of the Ministry of SOE’s plan to erase interim dividends but welcomes such a plan as it is inline with its plan for expansion.
·                      BMRI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 12.3x and EV/EBITDA of 5.9x.

Perusahaan Gas Negara prepares US$500mn for 2011 (PGAS, Rp4,150)
·                      Perusahaan Gas Negara’s capex this year is US$250mn and another US$250mn is also prepared for gas block acquisition in Sumatra .
·                      Distribution volume is targeted to equal as last year’s distribution volume.
·                      For 2010, distribution revenue is projected to reach US$2.04bn or Rp18.3tn from 2009’s distribution revenue of Rp16.3tn. The increase was due to higher volume and higher ASP.
·                      This year the company expects volume to increase by 9% YoY. However this target is dependent on gas supply from Conoco Phillips. If realized, additional net income for 2011 could be as much as Rp2tn. The company did not share 2010 indicated net income or revenue.
·                      PGAS is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA of 8.9x.

Bank Tabungan Negara indicates net income up by 60%-70% (BBTN, Rp1,390)
·                      Bank Tabungan Negara has indicated that net income was up by 60%-70%YoY  to  Rp784bn. This was on the back of stronger credit growth of 30% YoY to Rp53tn from Rp40.7tn in 2009.
·                      For this year credit growth is targeted to grow at 27%-30% YoY.
·                      To support this target, in addition to a planned Rp2tn bond issuance in 1H11, it will open 208 new branches this year. With the new branches, the bank intends for cheap TPF to contribute 45% to total financing.
·                      BBTN is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 11.3x and EV/EBITDA of 10.6x.

Nusantara Infrastructure books 23% YoY growth  ( META , Rp295)
·                      In 2010, Nusantara Infrastructure booked Rp255.9bn operational revenue, or up by 23% YoY from Rp190.5bn in 2009.  While operating income grew by 23% YoY to Rp78.3bn. However management did not share bottom line indication.
·                      Nusantara Infrastructure targets operational revenue to increase by 17% this year to more than Rp300bn. Traffic volume is targeted to increase to 80 mn vehicles this year from 66 mn in 2010.
·                      The company has 4 toll roads in operation, the Jakarta-Bumi Serpong Damai, Bosowa-Makassar, Airport section IV, and Lingkar Barat I.

Daily Economic Review Jumat 4 Februari 2011 - Samuel Sekuritas

·        Indonesian market was closed yesterday, yet IDR was traded in the international market and continued to appreciate to Rp.9.014 per USD, while WTI price dropped to US$90.54 pbrl. The decrease may bring negative sentiment for the Asia market today including IDR. We expect IDR will be traded in the range between Rp.9.020 to Rp.9.025 per USD.

·        Rice import has entered the local market lowering local rice price. The government expects deflation for March since another 800K rice imports is due to arrive by the end of February at almost the same time with the harvest period in March and April.

·        The US ISM manufacturing index hit 59.4 the highest for the last 5 year. The improvement is also supported by the new orders index combined with the employment index that could bring higher non farm payrolls in January.  Manufacture increase will support US economic growth to 4% in 2011.

Sierad Produce Plans 10-for-1 Reverse Stock - The Indonesia Today

Poultry feed producer PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) plans to reverse stock with ratio of 10 for 1, aiming for boosting its share price.

Elies Lestari, SIPD's corporate secretary, said in a disclosure to stock exchange that the reverse stock has been included into the agenda of shareholders extraordinary general meeting scheduled for March 11, 2011. Other agenda is the management change.

Elies said the reverse stock will change SIPD's nominal price to Rp3,950 per share from current Rp395. The company has also serries C share with nominal price of Rp100 per share. The series C shares was originated from bond and long term loan conversion conducted in 2005.

The company also plans to launche rights issue after reverse stock but Elies said the company has not decided yet on the plan.

Currently, SIPD shares price stood at Rp62 per share with market capitalisation of Rp582.25 billion.

Bakrie, Samsung to Build $2 Billion Power Plant - The Indonesia Today

PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR), through its unit PT Bakrie Power, and Samsung C&T Corporation plan to jointly build steam power plant (PLTU) which costs around US$2 billion, Investor Daily reported this morning.

Bobby Gafur Umar, BNBR's CEO, said the power plant establishment is part of company's investment for this year. He said BNBR and Samsung had on October 2010 signed joint agreement to develop business in Indonesia, focusing on construction, infrastructure and property.

The company had also in mid of 2010 said Bakrie Power will invite Korea Power Company (Kepco) for bulding steam power plant with capacity of 2x100 megawatts located in Sangatta, East Kalimantan, close to coal mining area of PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC), a subsidiary of PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI).

Bobby had earlier said BNBR allocated investment of up to US$800 million for funding infrastructure projects and acquisition. He said the company planned to invest around US$300-500 million in gas pipe line, toll roads and power plant.

Cargill Launches Tender Offer on Sorini Shares - The Indonesia Today

PT Cargill Foods Indonesia, a subsidiary of Cargill Inc, has launched a tender offer on 137 million shares in PT Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo (SOBI) Tbk owned by public investors.

Cargill Foods offers a tender offer price of Rp3500 per share or a total of Rp479.5 billion.

Cargill has previously acquired 777 million or 85.01% of the total issued shares in SOBI from PT AKR Corporindo (AKRA) Tbk and UOB Kay Hian Private Ltd.

The tender offer price is a premium of 3.7% to the last quoted price of Sorini (SOBI) at Rp3375 on February 2nd, 2010.
Sorini is the largest sorbitol producer in Indonesia and one of key players in the world.

Garuda eyeing Rp27.5 trio revenue - Insider Stories

PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is expecting to reach 5%-10% rise in revenue to Rp22 trillion-Rp27.5 trillion this year, following an increase in load factor. 

Assuming the airlines posted Rp20 trillion-Rp25 trillion revenue last year, Garuda estimates to reach Rp22 trillion-Rp27.5 trillion revenue in 2011.

Garuda's Finance Director Elisa Lumbantoruan said  he expects the load factor may increase after Garuda obtains 24 additional fleets at the beginning of this year.
"If we compare, Garuda's load factor reached 71% last year and may increase to 75% after we receive additional new fleets," Elisa said.

During period ended 9 months last year, Garuda posted Rp12.68 trillion revenue, while total assets reached Rp14.22 trillion. Net income was Rp194.87 billion and expected to reach Rp450 billion.  

Naik 21%, Adira Raup Laba Rp 1,46 Triliun - Detikfinance

Jakarta - PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk membukukan laba bersih 2010 Rp 1,468 triliun. Meningkat 21% dibandingkan periode sebelumnya, Rp 1,212 triliun.

Menurut Direktur Utama Adira, Stanley Setia Atmadja pencapaian laba hampir Rp 1,5 triliun karena meningkatnya pembiayaan baru kendaraan hingga 78%. Dimana sepanjang tahun 2010, total pembiayaan baru mencapai Rp 25,9 triliun. Bandingkan dengan periode 2009 yang hanya Rp 14,5 triliun.

"Seiring dengan peningkatan pembiayaan baru ini, maka jumlah piutang yang dikelola  Adira Dinamika Multi Finance tumbuh dan mencapai Rp 29,1 triliun per Desember 2010," jelasnya dalam keterangan tertulisnya kepadadetikFinance, Jumat (4/2/2011).

Stanley mengatakan, piutang Rp 29,1 triliun ini termasuk pembiayaan bersama (join financing) dengan Bank Danamon, selaku induk perseroan. 

Atas pencapaian pembiayaan baru tersebut, Adira Finance mampu mengangkat kinerja keuangannya sepanjang tahun lalu. Dimana pendapatan operasional perseroan naik 24% dari tahun 2009 Rp 2,7 triliun menjadi Rp 3,4 triliun di 2010. Dengan laba bersih mencapai  Rp 1,468 triliun, meningkat 21% dibandingkan periode sebelumnya, Rp 1,212 triliun.

Pembiayaan motor perseroan naik signifikan, 54% menjadi 1,6 juta unit di tahun 2010. Dengan porsi pembiayaan motor baru mencapai 71%, dan sisaya 29% motor bekas.

Sedangkan total pembiayaan mobil pada periode lalu naik 86% menjadi 76 ribu unit, dari sebelumnya 41 ribu unit. "Kami melanjutkan strategi dalam membangun awereness publik terhadap Adira sebagai penyedia pembiayaan mobil di Indonesia. Karenanya pangsa pasar mobil kami tumbuh menjadi 5,2% di 2010, dibandingkan dengan 3,9% di tahun 2009," paparnya.

The Indonesia Today Vallar Gained 31.5% Since November

The stock of Vallar Plc (VAA.L) has gained 31.5% since the announcement of acquisition of shares in Bumi Resources (BUMI) and Berau Coal (BRAU) last November.

Vallar, to be renamed Bumi Plc, gains further by 0.39% to 1,280 pence on Thursday (Feb 3) in London Stock Exchange. The company, controlled by Bakrie Group, is expected to close the acquisitions in the coming months.

BUMI, on the other hand, has declined 5% year-to-date to Rp2875 on Wednesday (Feb 2). At that price, BUMI currently has market capitalization of Rp59.7 trillion.

Berau Coal (BRAU), meanwhile, gained slightly by 3.9% year-to-date to Rp530. At that price, BRAU currently has market capitalization of Rp18.5 trillion.

PalmOil HQ Crude CPO Hits 3-Year High On Malaysia Floods, Supply Disruption

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange rose to their highest level in three years in a holiday-shortened trade Wednesday on the back of logistical problems in the key palm oil state of Johor that could limit availability of oils for export.

The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended 2.3% higher at MYR3,895 a metric ton after rising as high as MYR3,910/ton, a level not seen since March 2008.
Palm oil extended gains after floods in major oil palm growing regions damaged roads, with transportation from mills in Segamat and Kota Tinggi regions in Johor state grinding to a halt.
Disruption to harvesting rounds at several oil palm estates will reduce supply in February as less palm fruit is collected.

"The output in February will be sharply lower, due to the shorter month and disruptive weather. I'm expecting a drop of 15%-20%" from January's level, said a trading executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based commodities brokerage.
Traders and analysts estimate January's output to have fallen 15% on month to 1.05 million tons.
Concerns about a slowdown in exports of soybeans and soy products from Argentina amid an ongoing port strike may support palm oil prices.

"Palm oil prices may hit MYR4,000/ton when the market reopens Monday due to ongoing issues in Malaysia and Argentina," said an analyst at a Singapore-based investment bank.
The BMD will be closed Thursday and Friday due to Lunar New Year holidays.
Chicago Board of Trade March soyoil was trading 18 points higher at 58.90 cents a pound in screen trade at 0441 GMT.

CME Group's dollar-denominated crude palm oil contract for April delivery was trading $24.25 higher at $1,279.75/ton at 0449 GMT.
Indonesia Commodities & Derivative Exchange rupiah-denominated April palm oil contract was last trading at IDR11,415/ton, up 2.6%.

Open interest on the BMD was 89,398 lots, versus 92,083 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 11,600 lots of CPO were traded versus 19,085 lots Monday.

Kamis, 03 Februari 2011

Bisnis Indonesia BCA angkat IHSG 1,11% ke 3.480,83

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) sore ini ditutup mendaki 38,33 poin atau 1,11% dari level penutupan kemarin sore di 3.442,50 ke posisi 3.480,83.

Indeks bergerak pada rentang 3.443,16 - 3.490,25.

Dari 422 saham perusahaan yang menopang indeks, sebanyak 120 di antaranya menguat, 83 melemah dan 219 sisanya belum bergerak.

Saham Bank Central Asia memotori penguatan indeks pada bursa dengan kontribusi sebesar 4,33 poin, disusul oleh Telekomunikasi Indonesia 3,57 poin, United Tractors 3,34 poin, dan Adaro Energy 2,83 poin.

Saham yang menahan penguatan indeks pada sesi II ini dengan mengontribusi minus adalah Astra International 1,20 poin, lalu Bumi Resources sebesar 0,61 poin, Media Nusantara 0,49 poin, dan Indika Energy 0,46 poin.

Sebanyak delapan dari sembilan indeks sektoral yang ada di BEI memberikan kontribusi positif, dimotori oleh sektor keuangan sebesar 31,63%, lalu pertambangan 20,31%, infrastruktur dan utilisasi 14,02%, jasa dan perdagangan 12,33%, consumer goods 9,22%, industri kimia dasar 7,59%, pertanian 4,51%, serta konstruksi dan properti 1,06%.

Indeks BISNIS-27 juga ditutup menguat 3,88 poin atau 1,31% dari posisi penutupan kemarin sore ke 299,24. BISNIS-27 bergerak pada kisaran 295,47 - 301,02.

Insider Stories - Asahimas up 15.38% on take-over rumor

Automotive and flat glass maker PT Asahimas Flat Glass Tbk (AMFG) today skyrocketed 15.38% to Rp5,250 after a market rumor said PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), auto maker, may consider to acquire the glass producer.
"I heard a market rumor saying Astra may consider Asahimas. This is why AMFG-coded stock surged 15.38%," a local fund manager today.
Referring to the closing price today, Asahimas's market capitalization was Rp2.28 trillion. With annualized earning of Rp693.3 per share, AMFG is traded at 7.57x price to earning ratio, which is currently cheap.
Asahimas's financial performance at end of September was hefty as well.
The company posted Rp1.72 trillion revenue, Rp303.48 billion operating profit, and Rp225.63 billion net income or Rp520 earning per share.
Chief Corporate Communication Astra Arief Isnanto said so far there is no talk about Asahimas proposed acquision in Astra International's board of director. "I haven't heard about such acquisition." However, he admitted that Asahimas is one of auto glass supplier for Astra Group.

Bloomberg Coking Coal Contract Prices May Gain 15-20% in Second Quarter

Coking coal contract prices may rise 15 percent to 20 percent between April and June from the previous quarter as supplies drop due to floods in Australia, the Indian unit of Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said. Prices may increase to $260 to $270 a metric ton, reducing operating margins at Indian steel producers, Manoj Mohta, head of Crisil Research, said in an emailed statement. Floods since November have swept Australia’s

Queensland state, shutting coal mines and cutting rail links in the supplier of about half the world’s seaborne supplies of the steelmaking material. “Coking coal accounts for about 45 percent of the raw material costs of non-integrated steel producers in India,” Mohta said. “The run in coking coal prices will affect the margins of these producers, who are already vulnerable to an expected increase in iron ore prices over the next quarter.” Some 85 percent of coal mines are “impaired by excess water,” Queensland Resources Council said Jan. 27.

Lost coal production may total as much as A$9.5 billion ($9.45 billion), the council estimated in its State of the Sector report.

The Indonesia Today Gayus to Disclose Macao Gambling Sponsor

Hotma Sitompoel, lawyer of convicted taxman Gayus Tambunan, said Gayus will disclose the sponsor for an alleged gambling in Venetian Casino, Macao in the court hearing.

"We will disclose in court hearing, so we can have a serial," said Hotma after accompanying Gayus in an examination by Corruption Eradicaction Commission (KPK) Wednesday (Feb 2) as quoted by
Police detectives chief Ito Sumardi told a hearing at the House Commission III Tuesday (Feb 1) that Gayus went to Macao, Hong Kong, and Singapore, among others, for gambling activities.

Gayus left police detention center on September 24, 2010 to Macao, where Gayus, according to his wife Milana Anggraeni, gambled at Holiday Inn, Lisboa, Lama, and MGM. On September 25, 2010, Gayus played at Venetian Casino, Macao.

Police had earlier disclosed the initials of a businessman, HS, who allegedly provided financial support for Gayus-related activities while the former taxman was detained.

Insider Stories - META appoints two new executives

A new director and commissioner have been officially appointed by extraordinary of shareholders' general meeting of toll road operator PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META), following the acquisition deal by Rajawali Group. 

Managing Director of Rajawali Group Darjoto Setiawan has been mandated as a new commissioner in META as well as Corporate Director Bernardus Djonoputro.

META President Director M. Ramdani Basri said the appointment has been approved by EGM held today.
"During EGM, we scheduled the change of META management and a mandate for BoD to seek bank loan facility and other lenders," he said.

Adding to that, the loan is expected to underpin META for acquisition and development of infrastructure projects in next 5 years.

Group Rajawali, controlled by Indonesian tycoon Peter Sondakh, owns 23.6% shareholding in Nusantara Infrastructure after it acquired 3.2 billion shares from Infrastructure Growth Fund. Rajawali manages equity portfolios in several business sector such as infrastructure, retail, mining, agriculture, and hotel.  META-coded stock today advanced 1.72% to Rp295 per share, sending a market capitalization of Rp3.99 trillion.

Rabu, 02 Februari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas ADRO: Fairly trade, firm coal price…

Rich valuation should adjust and back to its fundamental (as seen from its forward PER band that has reverted to mean). Unrest in Egypt has surged crude oil price to US$100/brl, continued weather threats in Queensland, and indicated coal price contract between PLN and coal producers at US$114-115/ton have firmed coal prices level this year with Indonesia coal producers as the beneficiaries. We increase our coal benchmark price to US$115/ton which lead higher earnings growth for Adaro. We upgrade o ur ratin g from Neutral to Buy with higher TP of Rp2,800 implying 17.8xPER11F.  

Less coal from Tutupan, more coal from Wara. Adaro produced 10.4Mt coal in 4Q10 (-14.6% yoy, +1.4%) and sold 10.58Mt coal (-15.0% yoy, -0.3% qoq). FY10 coal production reached 42.2Mt (+4.0% yoy) including Wara portion of 2.5Mt and Paringin of 0.5Mt. These results were in line with the revised FY10 target but only 94% of the early year production target of 45Mt. For the Tutupan mine only, its production declined 3.2% yoy. We expect around 2.5Mt contracted volume in FY10 should be carried over to FY11 sales which potentially affect its FY11’s ASP.

Pit dewatering priority in 1Q11. In 4Q10 Adaro pumped 36% increase of 24.1mn m3, said equivalent to 9,640 Olympic sized swimming pool. Hence Adaro will give priority to pit dewatering in 1Q11. Overburden (OB) removal in 4Q10 reached 60.35 Mbcm (+10.1% yoy, +2.5% qoq) and FY10 increased 8.4% yoy to 226 Mbcm. This translated into higher SR of 5.8x in 4Q10 and 5.4x in FY10, in line with our expectation. Our panel checks reported that Tutupan has been a challenging mine for Adaro. Should Adaro keep its economical and reliable production, successful OPCC project and the 2x30-MW mine mouth power plant are required.

Higher price, higher earnings. We apply higher coal price benchmark up to US$115/ton (+9.5% previously) onwards, lead to higher ASP for Adaro of US$70.4/ton this year (+5.1%). As a result we increase our earnings estimates for Adaro up to Rp5,019bn (+8.8%) and Rp7,066bn (+19.2%) for FY11F and FY12F respectively. Please note, Adaro’s long term contract should lag to current year pricing with expected 50% volume based on last year Japanese benchmark.

Fairly traded, upgrade buy. Based on our earning estimates Adaro now trade fairly at 15.5xPER11F. Based on our new forecasts, we upgrade our TP up to Rp 2,800 implying 17.8xPER11F, offering 16.7% upside. We upgrade our rating to Buy.

The Indonesia Today Lautan Luas Increases Stake in Two Units

Chemical manufacturer and distributor PT Lautan Luas Tbk (LTLS) has increased its ownership in PT Findeco Jaya and PT Lautan Natural Krimerindo (LNK) to 37.87% and 99.93% respectively.

In Findeco, Winarto Adrianto divested all of his 3% shares to Lautan Luas and PT Wings Surya. Findeco, an affiliated company of Lautan Luas, is established in 1975 and began production in 1978. It has annual production capacity of 30,000 metric tons of branched alkylbenzene sulphonic acid (BAS) and linear alkylbenzene sulphonic acid (LAS).

In LNK, the company acquired shares from Indrawan Masrin, President Director of Lautan Luas and Commissioner of PT Unggul Indah Cahaya Tbk. LNK, domiciled in Mojokerto, East Java,, producing vegetable creamer.  Lautan Luas is 63.04% owned by PT Caturkarsa Megatunggal, and 36.96% owned by public.

Detikfinance PGN Targetkan Produksi Gas 825 MMSCFD di 2011

Jakarta - PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGN) targetkan produksi gas sekitar 820-825 MMSCFD di tahun 2011. Angka ini tidak jauh berbeda dengan produksi tahun 2010.

“Perkiraan pada 2010, PGN memperkirakan gas yang didistribusikan sebesar 820-825 MMSCFD. Kalau untuk 2011 jumlahnya tidak akan jauh dari ini,” kata Direktur Utama PGN, Hendi Priyo Santoso ketika menghadiri Rapat Dengar Pendapat dengan komisi VII DPR RI di Senayan, Jakarta (2/2/2011).

Selain itu, perusahaan pelat merah itu juga berkomitmen untuk mengembangkan infrastruktur penyaluran gas bumi dalam negeri. Hal ini mengingat masih dirasa kurangnya alokasi pasokan LNG nasional.

“Untuk mengatasi krisis kekurangan pasokan gas, PGN telah berkomitmen untuk membangun fasilitas/infrastruktur gas bumi dalam bentuk Terminal Penerimaan LNG Terapung (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit/FSRU) di Jawa Barat (bersama dengan Pertamina) dan Medan,” kata Hendi.    more ...

JPM Indo: Aneka Tambang - Higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation and downside to nickel prices; sell into strength

•Higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation: Recently ANTM released its guidance for the gold operation for FY11. The cash cost of producing one t.oz of gold at US$750/t.oz is significantly higher than the originally expected cash cost of US$544/t.oz and also the 9M10 cash cost of US$564/t.oz. The company citied lower-than-expected production volume at the Pongkor gold mine, the unavailability of highgrade veins, and the unavailability of low-cost veins as the main reasons. With these, we lower our FY11 net income forecast by 3% to Rp1,694B, which is 8% below the consensus estimate.

Downside to nickel prices; sell into strength: J.P. Morgan’s global metals strategist, Michael Jansen, in his report titled, “Base and Precious Metals Daily Nickel – a little left in the tank but a compelling medium term sell at $28k-$30k”, published on January28, 2011, views that the nickel price could peak in the range of US$28,000–US$30,000/ton on the back of faster growth in supply than demand. Jansen expects nickel to trade around US$22,000/ton by the year end. In view of this, we recommend selling ANTM into strength.

•Investment drivers: Negatives: (1) High production costs for the gold operation; (2) a Q/Q decline in nickel price working against the stock’s performance; (3) rising oil price translate into rising costs; and (4) no significant progress on ANTM’s projects. Positives: (1) Rising preciousmetal prices generating higher profits; (2) a strong Y/Y profit growth in FY11E; and (3) unrecognized upside value in the joint ventures.

Downgrade to UW from OW, extend and lower our price target to Rp2,000: With lower volume and higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation, declining nickel prices, and higher costs due to the rising oil price, we downgrade ANTM from OW to UW. We also extend the time horizon of our price target from June-11 to Dec-11 and lower our price target from Rp3,250 to Rp2,000. Our price target is derived from the average of our DCF and SOTP valuations.

Deutsche Bank Indonesia strategy : BI sets the tone in the near term

BI sets the tone in the near term
Market behaviour following higher-than-expected January inflation was interesting and may provide some hope of a back-stop from the recent havoc -- provided BI follows with a 25bps rate hike on Friday (4 February). Contrary to expectations, the market actually gained 0.8% from its intra-day low following the news, but was "marked down" by "market on close" orders on some counters. The positive reaction seems to suggest that the market would be happy with – and indeed expects -- a simple rate hike response, perhaps 25bps come this Friday. Naturally, disappointment looks a given if BI decides otherwise.

Higher headline but lower core inflation
Foods (primary and processed) were again the main culprit, accounting for 75% of January inflation of 0.89%mom (December 0.92%). Indeed, 40% of the rise that pushed headline to 7.02% (December 6.96%) was due to four items: rice, onions and two types of chilli. Core inflation remained subdued at 4.18% (December 4.28%) because the calculation excludes the very items that caused headline to spike. We note a slight uptick in non-food inflation but at 3.9%yoy, based on our estimates, this still appears well contained.

Record trade surplus
Away from inflation, December external trade was very robust, with both exports and imports at all-time highs, as was the trade surplus, which clocked in at some US$3.7bn, double the monthly average last year. Overall, the FY10 trade surplus reached US$22.1bn. This contributes to the current account surplus of US$6.2bn (BI estimate), and consequently the increase in FX reserve by US$30bn vs. portfolio inflows of US$16bn (US$4bn equity and US$12bn bonds + SBI). Non-commodity exports also rose a significant 25%yoy (15% of non-oil). Nonetheless, commodity exports (non-oil) remain the primary driver, with the top seven items +40%yoy (c. 50% of non-oil). Exports to China, though the second-largest after Japan, were the biggest driver; they represented 16% of the increase in exports.

Sentiment rules
We reiterate our view that inflation is not going to spiral out of control, but a near-term market call has more to do with trying to tap into market psychology than assessing fundamentals. Indeed, we think the recent effects of rising inflation and a potential rate hike have a minimal impact on our earnings estimates. However,
because inflation has become a focus point elsewhere, unless inflation peaks -- likely in 2Q -- the market will likely remain fixated on the issue. As such, BI's actions this Friday are likely to set the market direction in the near term.

Credit Suisse Indo: Indonesia Economics - Headline inflation up, core inflation down; we expect Bank Indonesia to keep rate on hold this Friday

● CPI inflation of 7% YoY in January was higher than market expectations (6.8% YoY). However, core inflation slowed to 4.2% YoY in January from 4.3% in December. On a 3M/3M seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, we estimate that core inflation momentum slowed to 4.1% in January from 4.9% in October.

● Volatile food inflation might slow in coming months following the government’s recent initiatives to contain food price inflation. But with growth remaining strong and the output gap closing, we continue to expect core inflation to rise toward 5% by March.

● Although there is a risk that Bank Indonesia (BI) might opt for a pre-emptive policy rate hike, we think the slowdown in core inflation momentum in recent months should provide room for BI to keep the policy rate on hold this Friday (4 February).

● Looking forward, we think the risks to inflation remain to the upside and maintain our view that the first policy rate hike will come in March, with a total of 100 bp in 2011.

Credit Suisse Indo: CPI flat 7%, Upgrade Buy GGRM, FY2010- Take Profit ADRO Buy EXCL!

1) ECONOMICS: January Inflation 7.02% YoY flat to December Inflation 6.96% YoY
iSay: Given January CPI flat 7% while January Core Inflation slightly lower to 4.2%, BI rate is likely flat 6.50% on Friday 4th February. Robert Prior-Wandesforde is forecasting Core CPI to exceed 5% in February data and CPI may touch 8% mid-2011F (average 7.5% 2011F). Since 2000, the headline CPI rate has averaged 8.2% in Indonesia, while average Core CPI rate 7.3%. Robert is forecasting BI rate to increase 100bps starting from March to 7.50% end-September, having been flat 6.50% since August 2009. Technically, I see JCI Index to range bound (3,300pts – 3,800pts) until March and I am recommending Selective Buy Coals (ITMG PTBA BORN & UNTR), Auto (ASII), Banks (BBCA, BBNI-, BMRI), Telecom (ISAT & EXCL), Cement (SMGR & INTP) and Undemanding Consumer Staples (GGRM and INDF). I continue to recommend TAKE PROFIT overvalued Consumer Staples (UNVR & KLBF), CPO (AALI, LSIP & IFAR SP) and Metal (INCO & ANTM)!

·         Bloomberg: Indonesia’s inflation accelerated in January, putting pressure on policy makers to consider raising the benchmark interest rate from a record low in coming months even as they may avoid an increase when they meet on Feb. 4. Consumer prices rose 7.02 percent last month from a year earlier, after a 6.96 percent gain reported earlier for December, Central Bureau of Statistics data showed in Jakarta today. That’s more than the 6.81 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 21 economists. Consumer prices in Indonesia climbed 0.89 percent in January from the previous month. Core inflation was 4.18 percent in January, easing from 4.28 percent the previous month.

·         Bank Indonesia has kept its policy rate at a record-low 6.5 percent since August 2009, delaying an increase that could attract more funds at a time when emerging markets are luring investment. Still, the central bank has signaled it may be getting ready to consider a move as core inflation accelerates.

2) GUDANG GARAM (GGRM): Report – Upgrade to Buy on undemanding Valuation!
iSay: After January +2% ASP increase, Ella expects further ASP increases to cover excise tax and Inflation costs increases (2011F ASP forecast +8% vs Excise tax +6.5% while in 2010 ASP +10% vs Excise +8%). Short-term catalysts are 4Q2010 Earnings announcement by end-March and 1Q2011 Earnings announcement by end-April. Current DCF Target Price Rp53,000 is based on Long-term Risk-free rate 8.0%, but based on current 8.9% 10-years T-Bond Yield the DCF will remain attractive at R45,000! At Rp37,250, GGRM is trading undervalued 14.2x 2011F PER with +21% EPS Growth, 2.1% 2011F Dividend Yield and implying hugh 42% upside to DCF Rp53,000 (20x 2011F PER). BUY GGRM!

·         Ella Nusantora (Report attached): Upgrade rating. GG share price has been under pressure, as have other consumer stocks, after an outperformance last year. At the current level, we believe that the valuation is undemanding, and it is time for investors to take a look at the company again. We maintain our DCF-based target price of Rp53,000, which equates to 20.2x P/E 2011E with 21% estimated earnings growth this year. It provides 40% potential upside, which warrants us to upgrade our rating to OUTPERFORM.

·         We believe that the company’s fundamentals are still intact, with an estimated 8% ASP increase in 2011 on 3% higher volume growth. The recent excise tax rise is also favourable to GG whose products are mostly on machine-made cigarettes, or SKM (83% of total volume). The recent tax change (which became effective on 1 January 2011), increased tax on SKM by 4.8% and SKT (hand-rolled cigarettes) by 9%. Based on our survey, SKM is the most favoured type of cigarette, with Gudang Garam brands being the favourite outside Java.

3) ADARO ENERGY (ADRO): In-line weak -4% YoY 2010 Coal production – reit TRIM
iSay: Given short-term coal spot price weakness as Queensland floods easing and Target Price multiple downside risk to 15x (Rp2,400) from 18x currently (Rp2,900), on unattractive risk-reward, we continue to recommend TAKE PROFIT ADRO!

·         Fonny Surya (Daily attached): ADRO reported 4Q production of 10.36 mn tonnes, a 1.2% QoQ increase and ~15% YoY decrease. This resulted in 2010 production of 42.2 mn t, ~4% YoY, in line with our forecasts and revised guidance of 42-43 mn tonnes. Sales in 2010 reached 43.8 mn tonnes, ~4% increase YoY and 8.2% QoQ in 4Q10. We believe that ADRO has managed production relatively well. However, heavy rain has significantly increased demurrage costs and mildly impacted ASP given delayed shipments on higher priced coal.

·         We expect to still observe the lingering impacts of heavy rain in 1H11. Given ADRO’s share price has performed relatively well in the past three months, driven by coal prices and liquidity, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating and are revisiting our target price in the light of current market conditions.

4) XL-AXIATA (EXCL): In-line Revenue better margins FY2010 results - reit Buy!
iSay: We continue to like Top-3 Cellular Incumbents as beneficiary of industry consolidation and we donot believe a tariff war ala 2007-2008 in the cards. Therefore, we reiterate Buy EXCL (11.6x-10x 2011F-12F PER) together with ISAT (22x-13x 2011F-12F PER)!

·         Colin McCallum (Daily attached): Excelcom reported even stronger-than-expected 4Q10 results. Net cellular services revenue grew 4.8% QoQ and 17.7% YoY, driven by a 10% QoQ increase in SMS revenue and a 17% QoQ increase in data and other VAS revenue. Excelcom’s opex remained very well controlled into 4Q10, thus able to report a 5.6% QoQ and a 27.0% YoY EBITDA growth, and a 16.8% QoQ and an 88.3% YoY normalised net profit growth in 4Q10. Relative to our full-year forecast, Excelcom beat our FY10E net revenue, EBITDA and normalised net profit by 1.2%, 3.8% and 9.8%, respectively.

·         We believe Excelcom’s strong 4Q10 results support our argument that fears of a possible return to the 2007-08 price war and the risk of material decline in RPM and ARPU levels are overplayed. We are increasingly confident that Excelcom could achieve our FY11 forecasts. We maintain an OUTPERFORM.

Insider Stories Moody's withdraws Energi Mega ratings

oody's Investors Service has withdrawn PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk's (ENRG) provisional (P)B3 corporate family rating, and the provisional (P)B3 rating on its proposed bonds. 

Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn the credit ratings for its own business reasons. 
The last rating action with respect to Energi Mega was on November 2, 2010, when the first-time (P)B3 ratings were assigned. 

Energi Mega is an independent oil & gas exploration and production company and affiliated with Bakrie family with total proved reserves of around 113 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) and daily production of 13.3 mboe in 1H10. 
Listed in Indonesia and headquartered in Jakarta, Energi Mega is 25.84%-owned by PT Bakrie and Brother Tbk, with a public float of 72.18%.

Mandiri Sekuritas BBTN: Targets met, yet remained cautious

Our latest meeting with the management affirmed that most of the targets have been met and the bank expects to have its growth sustained despite concern over rising interest rates and lower margin from new subsidized loans. However, we remained cautious with the bank’s outlook as we are concerned with the negative impact from high inflationary pressures this year which will affect banks with high exposure to the middle-low income people. We therefore maintain our TP at Rp1,600/share, and consider any weaknesses in the price as good buying opportunity.  

Rp1.6tn of funds have been placed by the government to support subsidized mortgage … Related to the new liquidity facility scheme to support the subsidized mortgage, the government has placed Rp1.6tn in BBTN in Oct10. This will translate into Rp2.7tn of new subsidized mortgage as BBTN will also  provide 40% internal funds to support this loan scheme. So far around 50% has been disbursed. This year, the bank expects to get additional Rp3tn of funds from the government to support this scheme or equivalent to Rp5tn of new subsidized mortgage. This new subsidized mortgage will account for 25% of total targeted new loans this year. Please note tha t BBTN t argets its loans to grow by 25-30% yoy this year.  

.. which will give around 4.25% NIM. This new subsidized mortgage will give a margin of 4.25% to the bank. Despite such low margin, BBTN still expects its NIM to be around 5.5% - 5.7% this year enabled by higher yield from other loans (i.e. commercial mortgage and other consumer/commercial loans). We actually expect the bank’s NIM to decline to 5.3% this year  due to (1) tighter competition in the mortgage segment and (2) tightening liquidity in the banking sector, which will put pressure on banks with high TD composition like BBTN.

Aggressive kiosk expansion. To support the growth in funding, BBTN has been quite aggressive in growing its kiosks (small outlet with only 3-5 officers). Last year, the bank managed to open more than 100 kiosks (from the target of 100 kiosks) and obtain Rp600bn from these outlets. This year the bank expects to open another 150 – 200 outlets.

TP maintained at Rp1,600/share. BBTN’s share price has declined substantially post our sell call on 29Dec10. Even though everything seems to be on track, we  remain concerned with the bank’s funding constraint and possible rising NPL due to inflationary pressures. We therefore maintain our sell recommendation on the counter, yet believe that any weaknesses in price may serve as a good buying opportunity for the stock.

NISP Sekuritas Daily 2 Feb 2011 (Economy, ADRO, BSDE, MYOR, BWPT)

Adaro produced 41.2mn tons coal in 2010 (ADRO, Rp2,400)
·                      Adaro Energy has produced 41.2mn tons of coal in 2010, up by 4% from 40.6mn tons in 2009. This was below the company’s target for 45mn tons. However management is pleased with the results considering the heavy rainfall that disrupted production in 3Q10 and 4Q10.
·                      Sales increased by 6% to 43.8mn tons compared to 41.4mn tons in 2009.
·                      Adaro is targeting production this year to reach 46mn-48mn tons, including  Envorcoal-Wara coal of 4mn-5mn tons.
·                      ADRO is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 13.9x and EV/EBITDA of 6.6x.

Bumi Serpong eyes Rp700bn net income in 2011 (BSDE, Rp740)
·                      Bumi Serpong Damai targets net income this year to reach Rp700bn and revenue to reach Rp2.7tn. Marketing sales this year from its subsidiaries, Duta Pertiwi, Sinar Mas Teladan, and Sinar Mas Wisesa, is targeted to reach Rp2.7tn.
·                      80% of revenue this year is expected to come from non recurring income while the remaining 20% will come from recurring income.
·                      BSDE is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 16.0x and EV/EBITDA of 16.3x.

Mayora to build 2 new plants (MYOR, Rp10,250)
·                      Mayora Indah will build two new plants to increase capacity by 30%. The plants will be located in Tangerang with total cost of Rp700bn. Estimated time of construction is 1.6 years beginning from March this year
·                      The expansion will be funded by bank loans and internal cash.
·                      The company indicated that revenue last year will exceed Rp7tn. This is higher than consensus expected figure of Rp6.57tn. It is optimistic about the outlook for this year, and sees that revenue can grow 25%-30%. Although commodities prices have increased, Mayora still has no plans to increase prices as current margin is still considered satisfactory.
·                      MYOR is trading at 2011 consensus PER of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 8.1x.

BW Plantations net income increases 46.1% YoY (BWPT, Rp1,210)
·                      BW Plantation booked Rp244.7bn, up by 46.1% YoY from Rp167.5bn in 2009. Revenue increased by 21.9% YoY to Rp712.6bn from Rp584.1bn. This exceeded consensus forecast for net income and revenue which had called for Rp220.2bn and Rp670.0bn.
·                      Increase in sales was due to improvement in CPO ASP from Rp6,117 per kg to Rp7,326 per kg. Sales volume was stabile at 91.4 th tons compqared to 90.0 th tons in 2009. Price increase improved EBITDA margins where it rose from 48.2% to 57.3%.
·                      This year the company plans to add planted area from 52,060 ha to 62,450 ha, while increasing land bank to 92 th ha. US$45mn is set for capex this year.
·                      BWPT is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 16.6x and EV/EBITDA of 10.6x.

Samuel Daily Economic Review Rabu 2 Februari 2011

·         IDR, JCI has strengthened in the yesterday market, while WTI price was slowdown to US$90.77 pbrl. Positive sentiment was back in the local market supported by tolerating inflation. For the today market we expect IDR will be traded in a stable range from Rp.9.030 to Rp.9.045 prbl.

·         January inflation reached 0.89% mom, higher than the market expected but tolerable.  The inflation is mostly generated by higher food prices, while other prices increase moderately. The core inflation was slow down to 4.18% yoy that could support BI to maintain its rate in 6.5% on Feb 4 meeting.

·         Indonesian trade surpluses in 2010 are amounted to US$22.13 billion as exports hit US$157 billion and imports reach US$135.6 billion.  The exports are gained from higher commodity prices. The good news, the import of capital goods has improved showing expansionary in manufacturing sector.

Mandiri Sekuritas Economy:Stable core inflation will hold off benchmark rate hike

Inflation registered at 0.89% mom in Jan11 or 7.02% yoy, higher than our and consensus estimates of 0.57% mom and 0.71% mom respectively. Rising prices of raw food components remained as the culprit on the headline inflation last month, while core inflation was stable at 4.18% yoy.

There were indications of wage-increase induced inflation (i.e. housing rental, maid wages, and doctor fee) that potentially drive demand. However, we found that the increase remained in line with seasonal pattern. Stable wholesale price (WPI) inflation in Jan11 and ample trade surplus in Dec10 also indicated there is no excessive inflationary pressure coming from the demand side.

We think the stable core inflation figure will allow the central bank to hold off rate hike. We think the central bank will wait for more evidence of rising demand before it initiates the rate hike cycle, which we believe could be triggered by fuel consumption capping starting in Apr11. At this juncture, we maintain our view that the first rate hike will be delivered in 2Q11 of a total 50bps to 7% this year. Earlier rate hike may happen if the currency is under pressure.

Indonesia total exports broke another record high reaching US$16.8bn (25.7% yoy) in Dec10, as commodity price continued to surge.  Imports hovered around US$13.1bn, resulting in hefty trade surplus of US$3.7bn jumped from US$2.1bn month earlier. Overall, Indonesia’s trade surplus rose to US$22.1bn in 2010 from& nbsp;&nb sp; US$19.7bn in 2009.