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Jumat, 04 Februari 2011

APLN:Good news is in place! - Mandiri Sekuritas

There are three major factors that we would think have kept APLN’s stock price underappreciated against its fair value : (1) skepticism of apartment being a choice of home-buyers in Jakarta (2) less optimism on the company in expanding land bank to grow its business; and (3) doubt of its ability to meet its performance targets. Yet, during our recent meeting with its management, the company impressed us with some positive updates that help alleviated such concerns we mentioned above. It booked marketing sales of Rp2.8tn for FY10, 15% above our estimates, and the company is adding its land bank through a new JV partnership for a 14.3ha land in South Jakarta. The company also indicated to book in-line net profit for FY10. Thus, we call buy for APLN with TP: Rp430/share, attractively offering 19% upside from its current price.

FY10 marketing sales: Rp2.8tn. APLN pleased us with its 2010 sales data. Total marketing sales was booked at Rp2.8tn, coming from the company’s current 12 pipe-line projects (Exh. 1). The highly expected 2010 chunk sales contributor, the Central Park (CP) and the Kuningan City (KC) apartments reportedly booked Rp335bn and Rp385bn, respectively, in line with our estimation for KC although slightly below for CP. Yet this was offset by the strata-title office sales that remained 25% out of total 44,869m2 NSA. The company set an ambitious 3.0tn (vs. ours Rp 2.8tn) sales target in 2011, which will be expected mainly contributed by the Green Bay (GB) and CP projects, and the newly acquire d Green Permata (GP).

In line FY10 earnings estimates. Projects completion is on tract as expected (CP apt: 66%; KC apt: 57%), which our 2010 earnings target of Rp242bn was assured to be achieved. The figure implies to ROE 10F of 9.2%, but this expected to increase to 12.7% in 2011.

On scene further expansion. Following recent GP 14.3ha land acquisition, the company indicated that they are now in a close discussion for 6 new potential projects, which among others a project located in prime area of Jakarta and a 40-ha project in outskirt Jakarta. Such active expansion that we expect continuously seeing from APLN going forward considering the minimal land bank that it holds.

Buy with TP: Rp430/share. Given the state of proofs, we call buy for APLN, attractively offering 19% upside from the current market price. Our TP has also included the new GP project whose injection also contributed to further our EPS12F growth to 38% (vs. initial 30%). APLN is currently trading at PE11F 13.6x and 32% discount to our RNAV11F. Risks: (1) meeting 2011 sales target due to market risk (2) delay in project delivery (3) lack of transparency in asset injection.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.32

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