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Rabu, 02 Februari 2011

Credit Suisse Indo: Indonesia Economics - Headline inflation up, core inflation down; we expect Bank Indonesia to keep rate on hold this Friday

● CPI inflation of 7% YoY in January was higher than market expectations (6.8% YoY). However, core inflation slowed to 4.2% YoY in January from 4.3% in December. On a 3M/3M seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, we estimate that core inflation momentum slowed to 4.1% in January from 4.9% in October.

● Volatile food inflation might slow in coming months following the government’s recent initiatives to contain food price inflation. But with growth remaining strong and the output gap closing, we continue to expect core inflation to rise toward 5% by March.

● Although there is a risk that Bank Indonesia (BI) might opt for a pre-emptive policy rate hike, we think the slowdown in core inflation momentum in recent months should provide room for BI to keep the policy rate on hold this Friday (4 February).

● Looking forward, we think the risks to inflation remain to the upside and maintain our view that the first policy rate hike will come in March, with a total of 100 bp in 2011.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.40

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