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Selasa, 01 Februari 2011

NISP Sekuritas Daily 1 Feb 2011 (TLKM, EXCL, BNII, ANTM, MEDC)

Telkom management open to Indosat partnership (TLKM,Rp7,550; ISAT, Rp4,875)
·                      Telkom CEO, Rinaldi Firmansyah, stated that it is open to Indosat partnership in the CDMA business. He stated that in the event of a spinoff of Indosat’s Star One, Telkom will approach the company for a possibility of partnership.
·                      Previously Telkom’s plan to merge with Bakrie Telecom’s (BTEL, Rp220) Esia has been stalled due to its labor union’s rejection to the merge.
·                      TLKM is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 11.8x and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x. ISAT is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 17.7x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x.

Excel net income up by 70.5% YoY (EXCL, Rp5,250)
·                      XL Axiata has booked Rp2.9tn net income in 2010, up by 70.5% YoY from Rp1.7tn in 2009. Revenue increased by 27% YoY to Rp17.64tn from Rp13.88tn. Net income results was inline with consensus estimate for Rp2.91tn while sales was lower than the forecasted Rp17.07tn.
·                      Number of subscribers increased by 28.6% YoY to 40.4mn. While the number of outgoing calls increased by 28% YoY to 81.9bn minutes.
·                      The company’s operating income more than doubled to Rp5.16tn from Rp2.46tn. Net income was also helped by a decrease in interest expense from Rp1.27tn to Rp842.6bn.
·                      The company is proposing a change to dividend payout ratio to 30% or total proposed dividend to reach Rp870bn from 2010 net income.
·                      EXCL is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 12.0x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.

Bank International Indonesia books Rp461bn net income in 2010 (BNII, Rp720)
·                      Bank International Indonesia achieved Rp461bn net income in 2010, a vast improvement from a net loss of Rp41bn in 2009. Net interest income rose 19% YoY to Rp3.56tn from Rp2.99tn in 2009.
·                      Overhead cost control managed to maintain net interest margin at 5.89% from 6.10% in 2009.
·                      Credit grew by 35% YoY to Rp53.6tn from Rp39.6tn in 2009. 45% of total credit comes from the consumer credit where 55.9% of consumer credit is for automotive loans, 28.9% is for housing loans while 8.8% is from credit cards.
·                      The company’s assets also increased by 23% YoY to Rp75.2tn. LDR rose to 89.03% from 82.93% in 2009 while TPF increased by 26.5% to Rp59.9tn.
·                      BNII is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 31.3x.

Aneka Tambang books Rp.8.72tn sales in 2010 (ANTM, Rp2,175)
·                      Aneka Tambang has booked Rp8.72tn in sales compared to Rp8.71tn in 2009. This figure is higher than consensus expectation of Rp8.63tn.
·                      The company’s performance was driven an increase in sales volume and nickel price. Ferronickel production reached 18,688 tons in 2010, up by 49% from 2009. The nickel business contributed Rp3.65tn to total revenue as Antam’s nickel ASP reached US$10.05/lb.
·                      Although gold price increased by 26% to US$1227.52 per troy ounce, gold revenue was down by 45% to Rp2.5tn due to decrease in production to 2,780kg.
·                      This year’s ferronickel production is targeted to reach 18 th tons with sales volume of 18.5 th tons. While gold production target is 3,804kg with sales volume target (including third party refining) is 7,304kg.
·                      ANTM is trading at 2011F PER of 9.8x and EV/EBITDA of 5.0x.

Medco sells Tomori E&P (MEDC, Rp3,225)
·                      Medco Energi announced that it has sold its entire ownership in Tomori E&P Limited to the Mitsubishi Corporation with a total value of US$260mn or Rp2.34tn.
·                      Tomori E&P controls 20% participation right in the Senoro Toili block’s production sharing contract. The block’s PSC is mostly controlled by Pertamina subsidiary, Pertamina Hulu Energi Tomori Sulawesi (50%). Medco still has some stake in the block as the remaining 30% is still controlled by its other subsidiary, Medco E&P Tomori Sulawesi .
·                      The Medco company has set US$400mn-US$500mn for capex this year where US$254mn will be used to develop its oil&gas blocks and the remaining fund will be used for other projects such as power plant.
·                      MEDC is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 14.9x and EV/EBITDA of 5.7x.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.32

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