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Senin, 31 Januari 2011

BNP Paribas BMRI Maintaining strong position


ƒRights issue to raise IDR11.7t
ƒPlus IDR1.4t additional earnings from Garuda Indonesia IPO
ƒEarnings adjustment following the rights issue
ƒMaintain our BUY recommendation with TP of IDR7,000


Rights issue to raise IDR11.7t
The government has decided to price Bank Mandiri’s rights issue at IDR5,000 per share, which will raise IDR11.7t in fresh capital. The terms of the sale are 1,000-for-8,985, or nearly 1-for-9 shares, for which the bank will issue 2.34b new shares. Due to financial conditions, the government will not take its rights, which
would reduce its stake to 60%, from 66.7% currently. The ex-date for the cash call is set at 8 February, while the rights are tradable between 14 and 21 February 2011.


IDR1.4t profit from upcoming Garuda IPO
In addition to the rights issue proceeds, Bank Mandiri should also book IDR1.45t in pre-tax profit from the proposed sale of 1.93b shares of Garuda Indonesia (GI) at the IPO price of IDR750/share, when it is spun
off. This represents 7.7% of GI’s enlarged capital (10.4% before the IPO). We previously expected IDR1.2t in proceeds from the sale of GI shares. The IPO is scheduled for February 2011.


Earnings adjustments following the rights issue
We adjust our earnings forecasts based on the expected full subscription of the upcoming rights issue. Given the strong demand on the government’s rights placement, we believe Bank Mandiri will be able to
get full subscription for the rights issue. Our earnings adjustment is based on the fresh capital of IDR11.7t, higher earnings from GI’s IPO, lower income tax of 21%, and a lower dividend payout ratio of 35% (from 50%). We expect ROE for 2011 to decline to 20% based on recurrent earnings (without taking into account the one-off earnings from GI), declining to 17.5% in 2012, due to the enlarged capital base. After the rights issue, Bank Mandiri’s total equity would reach IDR63.8t (USD7.1b) by end-2011, far higher than that of its domestic peers.


Maintain BUY with TP of IDR7,000

Given the expanded capital and lower cash calls, we adjust our TP to IDR7,000 (from IDR7,700), based on 2.6x 2011E P/BV, which we derive by taking the average of 1 SD above the stock’s average valuation since
going public, and the Gordon Growth model (assuming a sustainable ROE of 21%, COE of 12% and growth rate of 7%). Our numbers (TP, EPS) are below consensus, as we have factored in the enlarged capital
while the market is in the process of adjusting its forecasts. We believe with a higher capital base, Bank Mandiri will maintain and improve its dominant market position in various segments. Risks to our TP are steep
inflation and interest-rate hikes.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.26

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