Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 19 Februari 2011

Benakat puts Elnusa for sale - Insider Stories

Oil and gas producer PT Benakat Petroleum Energy Tbk (BIPI) aims to sell shareholding in PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) in a bid to pay back short term promissory notes maturing on March 12 2011.

According to Benakat Director Firlie Ganindito, as reported by Kontan today, said contribution from Elnusa, integrated oil and gas services operator, is not in line with Benakat's expectation.

"When we acquired Elnusa, Benakat was considering to stay in the long term. However, the situation is not in line what we expected," Firlie said.

Previously, Elnusa acquisition would pave ways for Benakat to grab contracts in oil and gas sector. For sure, Benakat hasn't obtained the expectation yet.

Benakat had officially controlled 37.15% shareholding in Elnusa in July last year after it bought from PT Tridaya Esta, a company controlled by Indonesian businessman Anton Sugiono, who is also controlling shareholder in PT Duta Graha Tbk (DGIK), a property developer.

Benakat issued Rp894.81 billion promissory notes to its controlling shareholder PT Indotambang Perkasa. About Rp302.5 billion was paid back by Benakat in the third quarter of last year and the remaining will mature on March 12 2011. Benakat shall consider to dispose 24.6% stake in Elnusa to pay the notes.

BIPI pledged 12.55% stake in Elnusa to Amadia Investment last year in a bid to secure US$30 million or Rp270 billion financing. Benakat also pledged stake in PT Delta Samudra, a company focusing in coal trading.

Bumi expects 2013 coal output over 110 mln T - Reuters

PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Asia's largest thermal coal exporter, expects to produce more than 110 million tonnes in 2013, or 64 percent higher than this year's forecast output, a company director said on Thursday.

"Expansion projects to achieve the 2013 target are already under execution," Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters. "The strategic principle we are adopting is to build for over capacity across our entire coal supply chain."

Bumi will become a unit of Bumi Plc, to be listed in London after a $3 billion deal with Nathaniel Rothschild's Vallar Plc in November.

China Coal-Prices flat, expected lower in coming weeks - Reuters

China's thermal coal prices were stuck at 780 yuan ($118.5) for a fourth week, with traders and buyers expecting prices to fall in coming weeks as heating demand slackens and supply improves.

China's steam coal prices began a downward trend in early December and have shed around 22 yuan per tonne since its 2010 peak struck in November.
Coal with a heating value of 5,500 kcal/kg stood at 775-785 ($118.50-$119.68) on Friday, while inventories at top coal port Qinhuangdao were down about 2 percent at 7.28 million tonnes from a week ago, data from industry website sxcoal.com showed.
"There is more supply coming into the market because rail transport is improving on the back of warmer weather," said a coal trader based in Guangzhou. "The general market sentiment seems to be that prices could start moving lower as we enter a seasonal demand low."

A second trader said talks that some carriages on the coal rail network would soon be changed to those with 80 tonnes, from the current 70 tonnes, were also damping market sentiment as that means supplies from northern provinces would significantly increase.

Despite stronger demand during winter months, Chinese coal prices have struggled to move higher, even as sea ice in Bohai slowed imports earlier this month and as international prices spiked.

Domestic traders also blamed soft prices on Beijing's determination to control inflation, as price pressures on goods, excluding food, were at their highest in at least a decade.

"With inflation the No. 1 focus, the government will continue to keep spot coal prices in check and that doesn't bode well for the market," said a Chinese coal trader.

On imports, Chinese buyers said Australian and South African coal was uncompetitive at current levels and would not price into the domestic market. Although they have been scouting for sub-bituminous material from Indonesia, offer prices were at best just 10 yuan lower than Qinhuangdao rates, giving them little incentive to import.
Analysts and some traders have said the steep discount for Chinese versus international thermal coal prices could persist through the first half of the year, as global values are bolstered by rain-led output disruptions and Chinese demand enters a seasonal lull.

Australia's thermal coal prices, a benchmark for Asia, climbed above $126 per tonne as news of a force majeure at Xstrata's Ulan mine in New South Wales boosted prices.
With Chinese domestic prices trading at a discount to Australian rates, overseas traders said Chinese producers were still actively offering cargoes to Japanese buyers and were also expected to kick off annual price negotiations with South Korean utilities soon.

Indofood Jajaki Salim Ivomas Pratama IPO

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) tengah menjajaki untuk meng-IPO-kan anak usahanya kembali, yakni PT Salim Ivomas Pratama (SIMP). INDF tercatat memiliki 60,4% saham Salim Ivomas, perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang agribisnis.

Sebelumnya, anak usaha INDF, yakni Indofood Consumer Branding Product (ICBP), produsen mie instan, bumbu makanan, dan makanan ringan telah IPO.

Direktur sekaligus Sekretaris Perusahaan INDF Werianty Setiawan dalam keterbukaan informasinya kepada Bursa Efek Indonesia, mengatakan, bila rencana penawaran umum terlaksana, SIMP akan tetap menjadi anak usaha perseroan.

Rencana penawaran umum saham tergantung kepada, antara lain, persetujuan dari pihak-pihak berwenang yang terkait, persetujuan para pemegang saham bila disyaratkan, dan kondisi pasar. "Tidak ada kepastian apakah rencana IPO SIMP akan dilaksanakan. Oleh karena itu, pada saat ini perseroan belum dapat memberikan informasi terperinci sehubungan dengan rencana penawaran umum saham," jelas dia.

Menurut Wellianty, perseroan akan menyampaikan informasi lebih lanjut atas perkembangan yang penting mengenai hal ini pada saatnya nanti.

Garuda Tambah Enam Unit Boeing 737 800 NG - Republika

GE Capital Aviation Services siap memasok enam pesawat B737-800NG ke PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk sebagai bentuk kepercayaan perusahaan itu kepada BUMN penerbangan itu.

"Ini bentuk kepercayaan GECAS kepada Garuda. Perusahaan ini sudah lama membantu Garuda dan dengan komitmen baru ini total pesawat GE yang disewa kami sebanyak 17 pesawat," kata Direktur Utama PT Garuda Indonesia (Tbk) Emirsyah Satar kepada pers usai menandangani kerja sama pengadaan enam pesawat itu di Jakarta, Jumat.

Hadir dari pihak GECAS adalah Executive Vice President GECAS Mike Jones. GECAS adalah bagian dari perusahaan General Electric (GE) yang bergerak di bidang penyewaan dan pembiayaan pesawat dan peralatan penerbangan. Saat ini GECAS memiliki lebih 1.800 pesawat dan melayani lebih dari 245 maskapai di 75 negara.

Emirsyah menjelaskan, selain enam pesawat, pihaknya juga menyewa tiga mesin pesawat jenis CFM56-7B. Dari keenam pesawat itu, tiga akan diterima pada Juni, September dan Oktober 2013.

Tiga pesawat lagi akan diterima pada bulan yang sama pada 2014, sedangkan tiga mesin CFM56-7B akan diterima pada Juli dan Agustus 2011 dan Juni 2012. "Pengadaan ini tujuan besarnya adalah peremajaan armada dari rata-rata 8,8 tahun dari 90 pesawat yang dimiliki saat ini menjadi 153 pesawat di 2015 dengan rata-rata umur pesawat 4,4 tahun," katanya.

Bila pesawat Garuda lebih muda, kata Emirsyah, diharapkan ada peningkatan pelayanan dan ujung-ujungnya konsumen yang akan merasakan kenyamanan. Seluruh pesawat Garuda yang dipesan secara sewa operasi melalui GECAS tersebut, lanjutnya, akan dioperasikan pada rute-rute domestik dan regional Garuda.

"Total pesawat baru yang kami datangkan tahun ini adalah 11 pesawat yang terdiri atas 10 B737-800NG dan 1 unit A330-200 karena, 10 pesawat lama kami keluarkan dari jajaran armada kami, maka tambahan 'nett' (bersih) pesawat kami, satu saja," katanya. Garuda hingga saat ini mengoperasikan 87 pesawat dengan komposisi 2/3 di antara adalah sewa dan 1/3-nya adalah milik BUMN penerbangan itu.

Mike Jones pada kesempatan itu menyampaikan penghargaan atas berbagai prestasi dan keberhasilan Garuda dala meningkatkan performa bisnis perusahaan. Sebelumnya, Garuda juga telah melaksanakan kerja sama pengadaan pesawat dengan Standard Chartered Bank melalui anak perusahaan "Pembroke Group Limited" dan RBS "Aviation Capital".

PT XL Axiata Tbk – Less Debt Leads to Higher Earnings - AAA Securities

Summary
EXCL membukukan kinerja yang sangat positif di 2010, pendapatan naik 27%, pendapatan operasional tumbuh 50% yoy dan laba bersih meningkat 69% yoy. ROE meningkat dari 21% menjadi 29%. Hal tersebut ditunjang oleh berbagai usaha efisiensi perseroan diantaranya melalui pengurangan beban utang, sehingga bisa menopang peningkatan laba bersih kedepan.

Efficiency Leads to Better ROE
Kami mengapresiasi kinerja positif EXCL di FY10, dimana perusahaan berhasil melakukan serangkaian aksi yang telah meningkatkan tingkat pengembalian modal kepada investor, ROE naik dari 20,8% di FY09 menjadi 29,6% di FY10. Serangkaian aksi tersebut antara lain, berupa efisiensi di pos biaya umum dan administrasi yang merupakan satu-satunya akun pada pos beban operasional yang yang relatif flat sebesar Rp3,6 triliun, dibanding beban personil dan marketing serta interkoneksi yang masing-masing naik 16% yoy, 25% yoy dan 14% yoy sehingga secara keseluruhan beban operasional hanya tumbuh 9% yoy.
Hal tersebut kontras dibanding pendapatan yang mengalami kenaikan 27% yoy, sehingga
laba operasional melonjak 50% yoy ke Rp9,3 triliun. Selain itu, turunnya beban utang
sebesar 35% yoy yakni dari Rp1,2 triliun menjadi hanya Rp780 miliar, ikut mendorong
lonjakan laba bersih akhir tahun 2010 sebesar 69% yoy menjadi Rp2,89 triliun. Akibatnya marjin laba kotor naik menjadi 53% dari 45%, sedangkan marjin laba bersih mengalami peningkatan menjadi 17% dari 12%. Marjin laba bersih tersebut relatif tetap dibanding kuartal sebelumnya, mengindikasi tingginya komitmen dalam menjaga profitabilitas meskipun ARPU secara kuartalan tidak mengalami peningkatan, yakni Rp34 ribu.

Mobile Data Services Drives Higher Revenue
Profil pendapatan EXCL di 2010, secara umum masih digerakkan oleh pendapatan dari
dari mobile data services yang naik 85% yoy, antara lain melalui penggunaan Facebook, Twitter dan sarana social networking lainnya. Sementara itu, pendapatan dari segmen telepon dan SMS masing-masing naik 20% yoy dan 29% yoy. Kenaikan pendapatan dari bisnis inti tersebut lebih ditopang oleh volume (jumlah pelanggan) yang naik 29% yoy menjadi 40 juta, atau naik 9 juta, namun pricing (tarif) mengalami penurunan akibat semakin rendahnya MOU (minutes of usage/penggunaan telepon per menit) sebesar 7% yoy (82 miliar) sehingga ARPU juga turun 6% yoy menjadi Rp34 ribu. Kedepan tren penurunan ARPU akan terus berlangsung sebab dengan penetrasi telepon seluler yang mencapai 80%, maka peningkatan jumlah pelanggan akan sulit jika terus mempertahankan tarif yang sama.

Valuation, At Discount
Meski industri telekomunikasi merupakan industri yang highly competitive, namun kami yakin EXCL masih mampu mencatat pertumbuhan kinerja yang positif kedepan terutama setelah perusahaan berhasil menurunkan porsi utang dimana net debt to equity saat ini turun menjadi 0,8x dibanding tahun sebelumnya 1,4x. EXCL telah menetapkan dividend payout 30% atas laba bersih 2010 dan seterusnya, mengimplikasi dividend yield 2010, sebesar 2%. Saat ini, EXCL ditransaksikan pada 12,4x PE FY11F, terdiskon dari valuasi peers sebesar 14,1x, sehingga berdasarkan relative valuation, harga EXCL berpotensi menuju Rp6.310.

Palm futures weaker at close - Business Times

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contracted to close lower, taking the cue from other oil markets and some by profit-taking activities yesterday, dealers said.

Talks that China would impose a food import tax also weighed heavily on sentiment as such a move will result in CPO prices declining significantly.

March 2011 dropped RM33 to RM3,755 per tonne, April 2011 fell RM47 to RM3,734, May 2011 erased RM38 to RM3,683 and June 2011 fell RM50 to RM3,630.

"Some people say this (price fall) has happened because of an increase in palm oil supply, but it wouldn't affect prices this much," said Leonardo Gavaza, an analyst at Bahana Securities.

"The trigger should be the Chinese government policy (talk)," he added. "If it does happen, the price of CPO will decrease significantly."

Turnover decreased to 30,420 lots from 34,151 lots on Thursday while open interest rose to 108,046 contracts, from 102,293 contracts on Thursday.

On the physical market, Feb South declined RM20 to RM3,770 per tonne.

RUBBER

MALAYSIAN rubber hit an all-time high of 1,734 sen per kg inline with the firmer rubber futures contract prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), a dealer said.

“Rubber futures at TOCOM rebounded on a bullish technical outlook due to supply concerns,” he said.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 increased 11 sen to 1,734 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk added 5.5 sen to 1,079.5 sen per kg.

While the unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 decreased 2.5 sen to 1,727.5 sen per kg, the latex-in-bulk added 8.5 sen to 1,086 sen per kg.

TIN

THE Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed sharply lower yesterday by US$600 (US$1.00 = RM3.04) per tonne to US$31,900 per tonne due to a techincal correction and in line with the downtrend on the London Metal Exchange (LME), a dealer said.

The tin price on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which influences global prices, was down overnight by US$850 to US$31,650 per tonne.

At opening bell on the KLTM, buyers bid for 20 tonnes, while sellers offered 100 tonnes. Turnover remained at 40 tonnes from Thursday with the participation of European and local traders.

The price differential between the KLTM and LME widened to a premium of US$715 a tonne from US$465 a tonne on Thursday. - Agencies

Jumat, 18 Februari 2011

BUMI memiliki cadangan batubara sebesar 2,9 Miliar ton - Britama

Bumi Resources (BUMI) memiliki cadangan batu bara sebesar 2,9 miliar ton per Januari 2011 atau naik 107% dibanding 1,4 miliar ton pada September 2010. Total sumber daya batu bara per Januari sebesar 10,02 miliar ton. BUMI menargetkan produksi batu bara akan mencapai 113 juta ton pada tahun 2013 saat ekspansi produksi, terutama di tambang KPC dan Arutmin dilakukan.

BUMI Allocates $2.26 Billion for Coal and Non-Coal Investment Read more about Tons - The Indonesia Today

Giant coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI), controlled by Bakrie Group, allocates US$2.26 billion funds for investing in coal and non-coal until 2013.
The company allocates US$1.25 billion for funding coal expansion. It targets to produce 113 million tons of coal by 2013, a 88% increase from estimated 2010 production of 60 million tons.

It said PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin Indonesia, Bumi's subsidiaries, will boost their coal production up to 100 million by 2013. Bumi allocates US$1.1 billion for KPC and Arutmin. It said the coal expansion is expected to contribute Ebitda of US$800 million per year.

Bumi also allocates US$150 million to boost coal production of other units - PT Fajar Bumi Sakti (FBS) and PT Pendopo Energi Batubara (PEB) - to 13 million tons and expects to contribute Ebitda of US$100 million per annum.

As of January 2011, Bumi's coal reserves totaled 2.9 billion tons, surged 107% from 1.4 billion tons in September 2007.

Bumi also allocates US$1.01 billion funds for its unit PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) to invest in minerals mine up to 2013. BRMS will develop black tin and zinc mines in Dairi, North Sumatera with investment of US$211 million, to develop gold and cooper in Gorontalo and Palu, Sulawesi with investment of US$500 million and to develop iron ore mine in Mauritania, West Africa which cost around US$300 million.

Dileep Srivastava, Bumi's director, told Investor Daily that the company is expected to book net profit of US$285 million, doubled from US$190.4 million in 2009, and revenue of US$4.27 billion, increased 33.4% compared to US$3.2 billion in 2009.

Ramba Secures Higher Gas Price from PGN - The Indonesia Today

Ellipse Energy Jatirarangon Wahana Ltd, a subsidiary of Ramba Energy Limited, has secured 69.9% price hike for gas supplied to PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Tbk.

Ramba told SGX this morning that Ellipse Energy Jatirarangon Wahana Ltd has been notified by PT Pertamina Exploration & Production that it has concluded a variation of the gas sale and purchase agreement between TAC Pertamina-Ellipse Energy Jatirarangon Wahana Ltd and PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk (PGN) dated 26 July 2004, which will result in a significant adjustment to the gas sale price from US$2.55 per MMBTU to US$4.332 per MMBTU; representing an increase of 69.9% in the gas sale price (the “new gas sale price”).

EEJW owns a 70% participating interest in, and is the operator of, a technical assistance contract covering the Jatirarangon Block, an oil and gas-producing field located in Cikarang, West Java, Indonesia. The new gas sale price will take effect from 1 April 2011 and it will be subject to an escalation rate of 3% per annum.

Bank Danamon Indonesia - 2010 Results Update: Marginally Below Expectations - Citigroup

 Lower Q4 earnings but strong balance sheet growth — The CY10 profit of Rp2.9trn is 2% below forecast, with Q4 profit of Rp680bn down 12% q-o-q. Lower Q4 earnings are due to 1) decline in NIMs to 10.6% (from 11.4%) due to higher reserve requirement and one-off interest expense and 2) flat fee income and lower trading income. Balance sheet growth though was robust, with loan growth of 7% and deposit growth of 13%.

 Changing Balance Sheet Mix — Management focus in 2010 has been on increasing high yield loans and reducing expensive deposits. While loan growth was 31%, asset growth was 20% and Net Interest Income growth was 20% (adjusting for accounting change) even with higher NIMs. It needs to be seen if the year-end surge in deposits is retained or reversed in Q1 2011. Asset quality has improved, though credit cost in auto loans has gone up to 4.3% (from 3.4%).

 Auto Loans speeding On – Loan growth was driven by 59% growth in auto loans, increasing their share to 39%. Micro loan growth was 25% and Wholesale loan growth was 37%. SME loans picked up in Q4 to end with 19% growth. Both Mortgage and Personal unsecured loans are being reduced due to lower spreads and higher credit costs, respectively.

 2011 outlook is business as usual — 1) loan growth guideline is 20%; 2) funding will be a mix of deposits, bond issuance, swaps and borrowings; and 3) inflation is a manageable risk, as proactive measures have been implemented.

 Maintain Sell — Our Sell on BDMN is due to 1) expensive PER multiples with our earnings 6% below consensus; 2) high LDR with BDMN paying upto 8.25% on large time deposits; and 3) declining CAR that we calculate as 12.5% on a standalone basis applying full Operational risk. (The 2010 numbers are actual, but we have used 2010E as we await a detailed income statement & balance sheet).

Indonesian banking sector - Lending rate disclosure may keep lending competition tight - Deutsche Bank

Lending rate disclosure to go ahead as of 31 March
The Bank of Indonesia (BI) has provided more details regarding banks' lending rate disclosure requirements. As many as 44 banks with assets of Rp10tr or more will likely be required to disclose their rupiah prime lending rates for corporate, retail and consumer loans. Over time, this change should keep intense lending competition intact. Consequently, we reiterate BNI, Mandiri and BCA as our top picks in the sector. We also believe that these banks have lower earnings risks than peers.

More clarity into what constitutes a prime lending rate
There is now less ambiguity in regards to the components of the prime lending rate. According to BI, the prime lending rate should be gauged by: 1) cost of funds, 2) “overhead” costs related to loan underwriting and 3) margins determined for the various types of loans offered. Banks will need to disclose corporate, retail and consumer loan rates. These lending rates will be required to be published in: 1) the announcement board of the banks’ branches, 2) the banks’ online websites and 3) newspapers (along with the banks’ quarterly financials).

Banks with low COF, LDR to have fewer risks of lower re-pricing vs. peers
Aside from these disclosures of prime lending rates, we have seen evidence of a declining lending rate trend largely due to competition. Even so, this development should bode well for our top picks (BNI, Mandiri and BCA), as their low COFs and LDRs should increasingly become a competitive advantage. Pricing competition in the sector will likely intensify as borrowers become more aware of the different rates offered on the market. Our top picks should have fewer risks of lower loan re-pricing than their peers. Currently, the rate differentials between banks with the highest and lowest lending rates and NIM have declined to 8.4% and 5.1%, respectively, down from the 21-month peaks of 11.4% and 8%, respectively. Additionally, with lower lending rates and margins, robust volume of loan growth will likely become an increasingly important earnings driver.

Focus on banks with lower earnings risk such as BNI, Mandiri, and BCA
Despite near-term concerns over rising inflation weighing on Indonesian banking stocks, we retain our long-term Overweight call. Two key risks to the sector are lower spreads due to lending and funding competition, and higher credit costs. We maintain BNI, Mandiri and BCA as our top picks given their lower earnings risks versus peers. We derive our target prices using the Gordon Growth Model. Other risks are macroeconomic and regulatory changes (e.g. an asymmetrical increase in reserve requirements).

Daily 18 Feb 2011 (BDMN, BNGA, LPKR, ADMF, RALS) - NISP Sekuritas

Bank Danamon memperkirakan net interest margin turun menjadi 10,5% (BDMN, Rp6.450)
· Bank Danamon memperkirakan penurunan net interest margin menjadi 10,5% di 2011 dari 11,3% tahun lalu yang disebabkan oleh kenaikan biaya pendanaan pihak ketiga dan pasar kredit yang lebih kompetitif.
· Selain itu, Danamon juga menargetkan pertumbuhan kredit dan cost of fund sebesar 15-20% tahun ini. Pertumbuhan ini akan bergantung pada besarnya inflasi dan juga nilai komoditas yang membaik.
· BDMN diperdagangkan di PER consensus 14.9x dan PBV 2.7x.

CIMB Niaga berencana mendirikan perusahaan multifinance (BNGA, Rp1.890)
· Dengan dana Rp100milyar, Bank CIMB Niaga berencana mendirikan usaha multifinance yang difokuskan pada penyaluran kredit motor untuk menunjang kredit konsumsi dari bank tersebut.
· Sementara itu, perusahaan menargetkan 20% pertumbuhan pinjaman terutama dari kredit kendaraan bermotor tahun ini. Target peningkatan total pinjaman tahun ini lebih kecil dibandingkan kenaikan pinjaman di tahun 2010 yang mencapai 26% menjadi Rp104.89tn.
· BNGA diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 19.9x dan PBV 2.9x.

Lippo Karawaci buka rumah sakit di Jambi (LPKR, Rp560)
· Lippo Karawaci mengumumkan pembukaan rumah sakit Siloam senilai US$18jt di Jambi kamis lalu. Pembukaan rumah sakit ini bertujuan mendominasi daerah Sumatera pusat.

· Selain itu, LPKR juga berencana membangun 20 rumah sakit baru dan melakukan akuisisi tambahan, dengan target pendapatan rumah sakit US$500jt per tahun, tumbuh lebih dari 35% dibandingkan tahun lalu.
· LPRK diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 17.9X dan EV/EBITDA 11.9x.

Adira Multi Finance akan terbitkan obligasi Rp3tn (ADMF, Rp10.500)
· Adira Multi Finance berencana menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp2-3tn dengan tenor 2-3 tahun pada April 2011. Penerbitan obligasi ini bertujuan untuk menyiapkan dana jangka panjang yang digunakan untuk pembiayaan.
· Hingga akhir 2010, Adira Finance mencatatkan total piutang yang dikelola sebesar Rp30,67tn, yang sebagian besar berasal dari pembiayaan sepeda motor.

Target penjualan Ramayana Lestari Sentosa di 2010 meleset (RALS, Rp770)
· Ramayana Lestari Sentosa mencatatkan penjualan senilai Rp6,04tn, naik 7,54% YoY di 2010 yang merupakan 3,3% lebih rendah dari target di Rp6,25tn. Melesetnya target penjualan di 2010 disebabkan oleh kurang kondusifnya harga komoditas di daerah-daerah.
· Sementara itu, manajemen Ramayana menyiapkan belanja modal senilai Rp200milyar untuk ekspansi gerai di luar jawa di 2011 yang berasal dari kas internal.
· RALS diperdagangkan di PER consensus 11.8x dan EV/EBITDA 6.1x.

First Asean-focused ETF launched - Financial Times

By Kevin Brown in Singapore

Published: February 16 2011 17:40 | Last updated: February 16 2011 22:30

A New York fund manager will today launch the world’s first exchange-traded fund focused on the Asean region, reflecting what some people see as the emergence of a new asset class in developing Asia.

Global X Funds, which runs ETFs tracking the Nordic and Andean regions, says the launch reflects increasing institutional interest in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a fast growing 10 country organisation that is rapidly moving towards greater economic integration.
The ETF, listed on the New York Stock Exchange, will be based on the FTSE Asean 40 index, which tracks the largest companies in the five biggest Asean economies – Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

These countries account for the bulk of economic and markets activity in the region, although the five other members – Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma and Brunei – are developing rapidly.

Bruno del Ama, Global X chief executive, says the launch of the fund was driven by demands from US institutions for an easier way of investing in the region, which has historically been overshadowed by the major Asian economies of east and south Asia.

The timing of the Asean ETF launch looks awkward, given that markets in the region have been declining or relatively flat this year, after rising strongly last year.

The FTSE Asean 40 ended 2010 up 28.22 per cent, but was down 1.64 per cent at the end of January compared with December.

There has been a significant outflow of funds in the past few weeks as investors have withdrawn cash from emerging markets amid worries over food and energy prices and political stability.

The suggestion that investors are awaiting a chance to invest in the Asean as a unit is questioned by some analysts and economists, who say the regional grouping is largely irrelevant to the image of the individual countries, which attract investors because of their fast growth rates. Singapore’s gross domestic product expanded by 14.7 per cent last year.

“Most investors still see this region as a group of countries with their own niches,” says Tai Hui, an economist at Standard Chartered bank.

“Interest is not so much linked to Asean as a unit, but rather still attached to its members.”

Many bankers and traders say the region is rapidly emerging from the shadows as companies and investors become more aware of its size and growth prospects, and more familiar with its companies.

With a population of 590m people, the Asean has an economy bigger than India’s, and aggregate stock market capitalisation of $1,750bn, according to the World Federation of Stock Exchanges, which is larger than both India and Brazil.

The region’s economies expanded by 7.5 per cent last year, according to the Asian Development Bank, which forecasts 5.4 per cent this year.

Much of the interest in Asean reflects a degree of economic integration that was regarded as impossible until recently

Unilever Indonesia (Underperform) - Still too expensive - MACQUARIE

Event
§ We update our investment thesis in light of UNVR's recent share price weakness (down 17% from Rp17,450 in late October). We maintain our view that UNVR is too expensive, notwithstanding its recent pullback, and we reiterate our Underperform rating and keep it on the MarQuee Sell list.
Impact
§ Multiple and margins have now topped out: It is a truism that only three things can drive a stock higher – sales growth, margin expansion and multiple expansion – and for UNVR, we believe the latter two factors have now peaked. More specifically, UNVR continues to trade at a FY10E EV/sales multiple of 5.5x (on its US$2.2bn sales base) and a FY10E PER of 32.7x, which we believe to be very full relative to UNVR's likely sales growth rate.
§ In addition, with UNVR now confronting an intensifying competitive landscape, we believe it is likely to face growing challenges to preserving its world class profitability (currently 17% NPAT margins and an 88% ROE), as it is forced to raise A&P spending and keep pricing tight to maintain market share against increasingly aggressive rivals (such as P&G). We therefore consider both UNVR's margin and multiple risks to be skewed towards the downside.
§ Sales growth likely to average only 10–13% pa: With respect to sales growth, we believe UNVR will continue to grow, but at an insufficient rate relative to its now-substantial ‘multiple overhead'. Specifically, we believe UNVR's sales growth is likely to average only 10–13% pa from here (modestly below its 13.5% CAGR since FY03), as it is forced to adopt sub-CPI pricing strategies and rely primarily on volumes for ongoing sales growth. In addition, UNVR's ‘excess growth' window remains a finite one, and we expect some categories to experience growing maturity as the decade progresses.

Earnings and target price revision
§ FY10 EPS -3.7%, FY11 EPS -8.2%, FY12 EPS -7.3%: Downgrades reflect a weaker short-term EBIT margin outlook due to rising A&P spending, and in FY11E, some impact from rising input costs (which are linked to oil prices).
§ Price target lowered from Rp14,000 to Rp13,000, due to relatively minor refinements in our core margin and revenue growth rate assumptions. We continue to view our valuation as a bull case, which utilises full assumptions.
Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp13,000 based on a DDM methodology.
§ Catalyst: 4Q10E results (expected in mid-to-late March).

Action and recommendation
§ Macquarie MarQuee Underperform maintained: We still cannot justify UNVR's current price on maturity issues alone (ie, assuming Indonesia grows to developed-world levels of HPC spending by FY30, and assuming UNVR suffers no adverse market share or margin impacts from rising competition). In our view, therefore, UNVR remains too expensive and an unattractive risk/reward proposition for investors at current levels.

Delta Dunia considers debt refinancing - Insider Stories

PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID), parent of Indonesian second largest coal mining contractor PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (BUMA), is considering to secondly refinance US$600 million of syndicated bank loan facility which was just secured by BUMA.

Several sources familiar with the matter said Northstar Pacific Partners, as controlling share holder with 40% stake in Delta Dunia, seems unhappy with the current structure of syndicated loan. Indirectly, Northstar Pacific, now based in British Virgin Island company, is controlled three stellar shareholders, Texas Pacific Group, Government of Singapore's Investment Corporation, and Chinese sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corporation (CIC).

"Considering gloomy situation, refinancing is more likely possible than rights issue. For sure, rights issue is inevitable for Delta Dunia as it requires to enlarge equity, enabling the company to secure more loans for business expansion," the sources said.

Perusahaan Gas Negara: Buy; Rp3,875; TP Rp4,815 prev Rp4,800; PGAS IJ - DBS Vickers

Steady expansion

• New sources of gas from LNG terminals and larger domestic supply

• Larger capacity and potential gas price hike are key catalysts

• Attractive valuation with superior yields and ROE; maintain Buy

Strong capacity growth from new LNG terminals. PGN is finalizing plans for the construction of two new LNG receiving terminals in West Java and North Sumatra . Its distribution volume may increase to 1,050 MMScfd in FY14 (+23% from FY10) upon completion of the West Java terminal. PGN is also well-poised to receive additional domestic gas supply as new regulations mandate upstream natural gas producers to sell 25% of their production to the domestic market. All the new supply will be absorbed given the underserved domestic market and PLN’s efforts to switch to gas as part of its initiative to reduce costs.

Gas price hike after new supply. We expect a gas price hike in 2H11 as adjustments to gas selling prices are expected to go hand-in-hand with the new, higher-priced, supply contracts. Assuming a similar increase in net earnings given PGN’s cost-plus gas pricing mechanism, we expect 25% net earnings CAGR in FY10-14F. Our sensitivity analysis shows that every 10ppt increase in PGN’s distribution volume (from base case) would raise FY11F net profit by 11%.

Maintain Buy, raised TP. We reiterate our Buy call for PGN for its promising outlook and attractive valuation. Our DCF-derived target price is raised to Rp4,815 after rolling over our valuation base, despite increasing WACC assumption to 11.9% to reflect recent market rates. PGN is trading at a discount to regional gas peers, at 12x FY11F PE against peers’ average of 16x, but offers higher yields of 4% against peers’ average of 2%.

Banking Loans grew 22% y-o-y in 2010 - DBS Vickers

Bank Indonesia (BI) has released the Dec 2010 banking stats.

2010 loan growth came in at 22%, which was spot on with our target. Loan growth was driven by working capital loans, which grew 25% y-o-y, followed by consumption loans at 23%. Investment loans (corporate loans) grew by 17% as we understand that corporates largely raised funds from the corporate debt market, which made it challenging for banks to book bigger ticket loans. Property loans grew by 13% and we believe the top players for mortgage loans are still BBCA, BMRI and CIMB Niaga. BBTN remains the key player in the subsidised mortgage market.

Deposits grew 19%, while loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 75% (2009: 73%). We believe the strongest deposit franchise still remains with BBCA while BMRI is catching up very quickly in terms of being the largest transactional bank in Indonesia . Note that BI will implement the loan-to-deposit rule of 78-100% by Mar-11.

NIM increased to 5.74% from 5.56% a year ago. We believe a large portion of the increase arose from lower cost of funds as the top 14 banks were urged to lower time deposit rates to a 7% cap from Nov-09. Average lending rates were lower from a year ago with consumption lending rates declining the fastest by 2%pts (working capital loans declined by 88bps; investment loans declined by 69bps) but the impact to NIM was largely negated by lower cost of funds. There was some distortion in the NIM for banks as they implemented the PSAK 50/55.

NPL ratio eased to 2.5% from 3.3% a year ago while absolute NPLs declined by 5% y-o-y.

Total CAR was a tad lower at 17.2% (2009: 17.4%) as banks included operational risks in the capital ratio calculations. At 17.2%, the Indonesia banks remain well capitalized vs. ASEAN bank peers. Note that CAR ratio for Dec 10 does not include the impact of the rights issue for BBNI and BMRI.

Our top pick for Indonesia banks is BBRI (Buy, TP Rp6,950) for its resilient micro lending business. We recently upgraded BMRI (Buy, TP Rp7,100) and BBCA (Buy, TP Rp7,100) on valuation reasons. In addition, these banks would also benefit in a rising interest rate environment.

Daily 17 Feb 2011 (AALI, BBTN, BBKP) - NISP Sekuritas

Produksi tandan buah dan CPO Astra Agro Lestari naik 10,9% dan 17,3% (AALI, Rp22.300)
· Hasil panen tandan buah segar Astra Agro Lestari naik menjadi 333,582 ton selama January 2011 atau meningkat 10,9% dibandingkan hasil produksi di periode yang sama tahun lalu.
· Hasil CPO AALI juga meningkat 17,3% dari 78,524 ton menjadi 92,116 ton.
· Peningkatan panen dan CPO ini didukung oleh pertumbuhan hasil produksi dari kebun Kalimantan dan Sumatra sebesar 28,9% dan 11,8%.
· AALI diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 13,2x dan EV/EBITDA 8.6X.

Bank Tabungan Negara alokasikan Rp26tn untuk KPR (BBTN, Rp1.300)
· Bank Tabungan Negara menargetkan pembangunan 120,000 unit rumah bagi masyarakat berpenghasilan rendah dengan alokasi dana sebesar Rp26tn tahun ini, atau meningkat 30% dibandingkan tahun lalu yang sebesar Rp20tn.
· Secara makro, BTN optimis sektor properti akan tumbuh 30% tahun ini. Namun dari sisi mikro, sektor property masih tersendat karena belum siapnya perda dan BPHTB di beberapa daerah.
· BBTN diperdagangkan di konsensus PER10.5x dan PBV 1.7x.


Bank Bukopin berencana akuisisi Tugu Kresna Pratama (BBKP, Rp530)
· Bukopin berencana akuisisi Tugu Kresna Pratama senilai Rp150 milyar tahun ini.
· Kemitraan ini memberikan keuntungan bisnis asuransi kepada Bukopin dan peningkatkan modal Tugu Kresna Pratama.
· BBKP diperdagangkan di konsensus PER 6.9x dan PBV 1.1x.

Bank Danamon: 4Q margins mildly pressured, no sign of inflation impact on portfolio quality (Aditya Srinath) - JP Morgan

4QFY10 profits slightly lower than expected on one-off interest charge: BDMN’s FY10 net profits at Rp2.9 trn were 2-4% below consensus/JPM estimates, but in line with indications published on Bloomberg earlier this week. Detailed financials are yet unavailable, but an Rp45 bn interest charge on a legacy BI sub-loan (dating to the Asian crisis) accounted for in December explains 50% of the variance. Therefore, we consider these results to be broadly in line.

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/PubServlet?action=open&doc=GPS-549839-0.pdf

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 18 Februari 2011

Berikut adalah rekomendasi dari dua sekuritas untuk perdagangan Jumat, 18 Februari 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Kamis (17/2), IHSG masih bergerak sideways dan ditutup naik 17 poin (0,51%) ke level 3.434. Asing kemarin melakukan net buying Rp 411 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah otomotif dan perbankan. Secara teknikal, indeks masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi. Sedangkan pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.346-3.489. Cermati ASII, BBTN dan INTP.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas
Di tengah penguatan indeks kemarin, tiga sektor melemah yakni, perkebunan, konsumsi dan keuangan masing-masing 1,56%, 0,93% dan 0,17%. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada kisaran 3.419-3.456. INTP, SMGR, MNCN, JSMR menjadi saham-saham pilihan kami.

CPO futures end slightly lower - Business Times

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Bhd closed slightly lower yesterday due to a technical correction and the downtrend on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, a dealer said.

March 2011 declined RM32 to close at RM 3,788 a tonne, April 2011 fell RM9 to RM3,781, May 2011 shed RM24 to RM3,721 and June 2011 slipped RM15 to RM3,680.

Total volume increased to 34,151 lots from 25,895 on Wednesday while open interests was up to 102,293 contracts from 101,211contracts previously.

On the physical market, March South slipped to RM3,790 from RM3,830 previously.

RUBBER

THE Malaysian rubber market ended mixed yesterday, after two consecutive days of gains, despite the uptrend on the Tokyo rubber futures market, a dealer said.
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He said the market was still in short supply of the commodity from major producing countries although the wintering season was beginning to taper off.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 slipped 1.5 sen to 1,723 sen a kg while latex-in-bulk rose 8.5 sen to 1,074 sen.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 added 16.5 sen to 1,730 sen and latex-in-bulk gained 10.5 sen to 1,077.5 sen a kg.

TIN

THE Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) extended its rally yesterday to close at a new high of US$32,500(US$1.00 = RM3.05), up US$300 per tonne, despite a technical correction on the London Metal Exchange (LME), dealers said.

A dealer said the local market would continue to dictate the LME''s performance, which saw the tin price dipped by US$50 per tonne to US$32,500.

He said sellers were refusing to sell at the current level, resulting in upward pressure on the price.

"The sellers are controlling their output as they are waiting for the price to increase further," he said.

At the opening bell, buyers bid for 75 tonnes, while sellers offered only 30 tonnes.

Turnover decreased to 40 tonnes from 55 tonnes on Wednesday, with the participation of Japanese, European and local traders.

The premium between the KLTM and the LME widened to US$465 per tonne from US$115 per tonne previously. - Bernama

Kamis, 17 Februari 2011

Bank Danamon 2010 Profit Jumps 88%

PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk (BDMN), the country's sixth largest bank, today announced it booked consolidated net profit after tax of Rp2.88 trillion in 2010, increased 88% from Rp1.53 trillion in 2009.
The profit growth was mainly contributed by an increase in non-interest income in addition to loan growth in all customer segments, particularly micro, small and medium enterprises (UMKM).

“Indonesia’s macro economic condition in 2010 provided a positive operating environment for Danamon which enabled us to accelerate loan growth across all lines of businesses,” said Henry Ho, President Director of Danamon.

At the end of December 2010, Danamon’s loans reached Rp82.66 trillion, increasing 31% throughout the year from Rp63.28 trillion at the end of 2009.

Danamon’s micro, small and medium business loans have grown 24% year-on-year reaching Rp26.56 trillion and accounted for 32% of its total loans at the end of 2010.

Corporate and commercial loans have grown 21% to Rp16.27 trillion from Rp13.39 trillion in 2009, driven by trade finance business which grew 74% to Rp3.14 trillion from Rp1.81 trillion in the previous year.

Heavy equipment financing through Asset-Based Finance (ABF) unit also performed well, having grown 49% from Rp1.06 trillion at the end of 2009 to Rp1.58 trillion.

“Growth across our businesses in the past year was accompanied by a maintained quality of assets,” said Vera Eve Lim, Danamon’s Director and Chief Financial Officer. Danamon’s Gross NPL was 3.0% as of end of December 2010, down from 4.5% in 2009.

Indonesia’s automotive sector recorded significant growth in 2010 with motorcycle and car sales increasing 26% and 57%, respectively. In line with this, Danamon’s automotive financing through Adira Finance marked a 54% and 86% growth, respectively, in units of motorcycles and cars financed.

Adira Finance’s total outstanding receivables reached Rp30.68 trillion at the end of 2010, driven by motorcycle financing which accounted for 66.6% of all Adira Finance’s financing.

Danamon’s general insurance subsidiary, Adira Insurance, also grew significantly. Its gross premiums rose 34.3% to Rp1.08 trillion from Rp808 billion at the end of 2009.

Kimia Farma FY10 net income up 61.44% - Insider Stories

The state-owned drug producer PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) estimated to post FY2010's net income of Rp100.9 billion, a 61.44% jump from Rp62.5 billion in the end of 2009.
Kimia Farma President Director Kimia Farma Syamsul Arifin said that such profit jump is expected to realize following the 6.31% revenue jump, from Rp2.85 trillion in 2009 to Rp3.03 trillion in the end of 2010.

Meanwhile, this year, the company seeks to record 10.89% revenue growth to Rp3.36 trillion compared to the same period in the previous year.
Syamsul said that the company owns three business units, including drug stores, trading and manufacture industry. Until now the contribution from sales is still higher compared to drug stores and trading. For the profit, manufacture industry somehow still dominates.
“In term of sales, the biggest contributors are trading and distribution while in terms of profit the industrial sector gave the biggest contribution up to 77%,” he explained.

Laba Bersih CIMB Niaga 2010 Naik 62% - Toko Saham

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA) berhasil membukukan perolehan laba bersih konsolidasi per Desember 2010 sebesar Rp 2,55 triliun, naik 62 persen dibanding periode yang sama tahun 2009 sebesar Rp 1,57 triliun.

"Hal ini menghasilkan earning per share (EPS) sebesar Rp 106,46 lebih besar dari angka tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 65,52," kata Presiden Direktur CIMB Niaga Arwin Rasyid di Jakarta, Kamis (17/2).

Menurut dia, naiknya pendapatan bunga bersih sebesar 16% dan turunnya biaya pencadangan sebesar 28% pada 2010, ikut mendongkrak perolehan laba bersih CIMB Niaga. Selain itu, efisiensi yang dilakukan juga turut menurunkan cost to income ratio dari 50,54% menjadi 48,20% pada 2010.

Total aset Bank CIMB Niaga tercatat sebesar Rp 143,65 triliun, naik 34% dibanding periode yang sama 2010 sebesar Rp 107,10 triliun. "Ini memantapkan posisi Bank CIMB Niaga sebagai bank terbesar kelima di Indonesia dari sisi aset," katanya.

CIMB Niaga juga menghimpun dana pihak ketiga sebesar Rp 117,83 triliun, naik 37% dari periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp 86,25 triliun. Deposito berjangka meningkat sebesar Rp 19,62 triliun (42%) dan giro plus tabungan meningkat sebesar Rp 11,96 triliun (30%).

Meningkatnya dana pihak ketiga diimbangi dengan naiknya penyaluran kredit. Hingga 31 Desembe 2010 CIMB Niaga mampu memperbesar pertumbuhan kredit sebesar Rp 21,50 triliun menjadi Rp 104,89 triliun. "Pertumbuhan kreedit ini kami barengi dengan meningkatnya kualitas aset, dengan NPL gross turun dari 3,06% menjadi 2,53%, sementara LDR tercatat sebesar sebesar 88,04%," kata Arwin.

KRAS Ingin Partisipasi di Proyek Selat Sunda - Inilah.com

PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk berharap dapat berpartisipasi dalam pelaksanaan Proyek Jembatan Selat Sunda (JSS).

Hal ini disampaikan manajemen Peseroan menjawab BEI, Kamis (18/2). "Berdasarkan estimasi kami bahwa dari sisi volume kebutuhan baja untuk pembangunan JSS dapat dipenuhi PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk sepanjang spesifikasi baja yang dibutuhkan sesuai dengan spesifikasi produk yang diproduksi oleh PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk," ujar manajemen KRAS.

Hal ini sangat bergantung dengan Teknologi/Basic design yang
ditetapkan oleh designer yang ditunjuk oleh investor. PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk sudah cukup mampu memproduksi Mill Steel untuk structure jembatan termasuk pipa dan besi beton serta besi siku untuk aplikasi bangunan khususnya yang tahan gempa.

PT Krakatau Engineering sebagai anak perusahaan PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk yang bergerak di bidang EPC diharapkan juga dapat berkontribusi sesuai dengan kemampuan yang dimilikinya untuk menunjang pelaksanaan proyek tersebut.

Credit Suisse arranges Visi Media IPO - Insider Stories

PT Visi Media Asia, a business group belonging to Aburizal Bakrie, appoints Credit Suisse as the international underwriter to handle the initial public offering (IPO) of the company this year.
Presiden Direktur Viva Media Grup Anindya N. Bakrie said that the company will be assisted by four underwriters, namely PT Ciptadana Securities, PT Danatama Makmur, and Credit Suisse.
“Our global underwriter is Credit Suisse, and we have invited them. Moreover, we have Danatama and Ciptadana,” he said yesterday.

Visi Media Asia is a media conglomerate that controls two TV stations, TV One and Antv, and an online news portal Vivanews.
There has been rumor saying that Visi Media will release 20%-30% shares to public. From the IPO, the company is predicted to get Rp1 trillion.
However, Anindya declined to disclose the portion of ownership to be released and the amount of cash targeted from the IPO.

Bumi Resources targets to produce 67 million tons of power station coal in 2011

Bumi Resources targets to produce 67 million tons of power station coal in 2011 and cross 110 million tons in 2013. Expansion projects to achieve the 2013 are already under execution - ie conveyors, captive coal fired power plants, mining equipment and heavy duty trucks, doubling port stock piling capacity and adding a 2nd ship loading for completion next year. Shiploading capacity has already been upgraded to 7500 tons/hour in May'10 (vs earlier 4500 tons/hour).

The strategic principle we are adopting is to build for over capacity across our entire coal supply chain - mining equipment, transportation (that's exponential increase in conveyor length and heavy duty trucks), captive power, adding a 2nd shiploader and a second berth in KPC Tanjung Bara port. Not only would all these make us less weather sensitive but also reduce costs by $1 -$2/ton in 2013 once the above expansion/optimization projects are on line next year.
Bumi expects a strong performance in 2010 (vs previous year) and even stronger in 2011 further catalysed by debt reduction of ca $1 billion this year.

Japanese 2011 coal contract seen climbing to record level - Reuters

PERTH/TOKYO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Annual negotiations between Australian coal producers and Japanese utilities for thermal coal contracts starting April 1 are underway with the prices expected to meet or exceed record levels seen in 2008.

Prices are widely expected to match or exceed the 2008 record price of $125 per tonne due to upward pressure from floods in Australia's Queensland state as well as production disruptions elsewhere.

Trade sources said that the price is likely to settle between $125 and $130 per tonne. A new contract at $125 per tonne would represent an almost 30 percent increase from last year's contract. "We think there are enough reasons (for a higher coal contract settlement) -- Queensland, of course, the disruptions in South Africa and export issues in Indonesia," said David Brennan, an analyst with Daiwa Securities.

Flooding in Queensland lifted thermal coal prices to a high over $140 per tonne earlier this year and the globalCOAL index for Newcastle coal is still hovering around $125 per tonne,
about 35 percent higher than this time last year. Rain-related disruptions during the last months in other coal producing countries have also contributed to global supply tightness.

The annual contract prices are set by mining major Xstrata Coal , the world's largest exporter of power-station coal and large Japanese utilities including Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), Tohoku Electric Power Co Inc and Chubu Electric .

Forecasts for the contract price among coal analysts have varied widely, with Macquarie Research putting its forecast at $145 per tonne, while others put the price around the 2008 record of $125 per tonne.

The contracts, which represent the majority of coal imported into Japan are generally around spot price levels, often with a supply security premium. Some contracts, typically smaller volumes, are signed in July and October. Japanese utilities use about 50 million of thermal coal annually, with Australia supplying about 60 percent of its imports.

Japanese utilities may accept a price of $125 per tonne, but there's a feeling they do not want to pay higher than that, according to one Japanese coal trader. "There's a sense of resistance to ($125 per tonne) level for the buyers," one Japanese utility source said. "Of course, we
aim to keep it below that." Some market sources said the Queensland floods and recent
market tightness would bolster Xstrata's hand in the negotiations.

"This is coming at a very good time from Xstrata's point of view," said one Sydney-based trader, indicating that Xstrata may use some of its recent mine disruptions to negotiate for a
higher price. Xstrata recently declared force majeure on one of its thermal coal mines in Australia due to heavy rains; another of its thermal coal mines has been shut for weeks due to a
fire. "In the end, whoever holds the tonnage will have the final say," the Sydney based trader said.

Strategy - The Perth of Indonesia + ASEAN Small cap wrap - CLSA Indo

Nick Cashmore visited Balikpapan in East Kalimantan to kick some tire (literally speaking - see pic below). With its massive resource deposits, Balikpapan is one of the richest cities of Indonesia. This area is the prime example of our NJJ theme (Not-Just-Jakarta) being well and alive.

East Kalimantan is rich in oil and thermal coal and the per capita income has tripled to over US$8,500 in the past decade, exceeding Jakarta. A clear example why Jakarta contributes less than 15% to the national GDP. This year, GDP/capita is set to reach US$10,000 in East Kalimantan.

We visited a hospital (owned by LPKR IJ), microfinance unit of Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ), the heavy equipment warehouse of United Tractors (UNTR IJ) and the “big dig” coal mine of Kaltim Prime Coal (BUMI IJ).

The rapid economic development in East Kalimantan means demand for higher level of healthcare. There are no international quality hospitals in the area and the Lippo Group is looking to leverage on this with the recently acquired Balikpapan Husada Hospital. LPKR intends to triple current capacity to 111 beds.

The banking system in the province has also grown robustly in the last decade – total deposits have grown by 18.5% Cagr or five fold to over US$5bn over the last decade. There is so much more to Indonesia than just Jakarta!!

Key points from the report:
· Per capita income for the province, East Kalimantan, should reach US$10,000 this year, the highest in Indonesia
· Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) aims to tap the nascent medical services market that still flies heart attack patients to Singapore for US$25k a trip
· Bank Rakyat (BBRI IJ), Indo's largest microfinancier, has a 15% share of the city's loans, and we note the SMEs are doing good business
· United Tractors (UNTR IJ) keeps 80% of their stock in Kalimantan due to the resource boom, and sited its largest warehouse in Balikpapan
· Bumi Resources' (BUMI IJ) KPC mine moves over a billion tonnes of earth each year, and has very high quality infrastructure to support its business needs

Asia Palm Oil Sector - What goes up must come down - Credit Suisse

● La Nina is usually a non-event but the 2010-11 La Nina was one of the worst in history, leading to plantation stocks outperforming at end-2010. According to weather experts, La Nina should have already peaked; hence, the worst should be over. Palm oil prices could still spike to RM4,000/t with weather vagaries, but we believe this is unsustainable for a longer duration, as it leads to a slowdown in demand.

● Huge price volatility in 2011E, but palm oil prices may have already peaked: (1) speculative positions for soy, corn and palm oil are at record highs – vulnerable to profit-taking; (2) supply could surprise on the upside in 2011 (reversal of tree stress, higher new planting in 2007 and rising output from higher rainfall).

● Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. We have raised our 2011 palm oil price assumption to RM2,950/t (from RM2,300), but remain UNDERWEIGHT, as the stocks are fairly valued. YTD, plantation stocks have underperformed, but we expect further underperformance. We maintain UNDERPERFORM on IOI Corp and Sime Darby. Wilmar remains our only OUTPERFORM.

Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ, Rp22,300 HOLD) AALI's January production - Danareksa Sekuritas

Highlights:

l FFB production reached 259,499 tons for nucleus and 74,083 tons for plasma. This is 11.1%-10.2% higher than January 2010’s production.

l Supporting the growth is the substantial improvement in the FFB yield to 1.5ton/ha, up from 1.4ton/ha last year (+7.1% YoY) thanks to robust production growth in Sumatra and Kalimantan at 11.8% and 27.8%, respectively.

l The CPO extraction rate (OER), however, declined slightly to 22.8% in January 2011, from 23.8% in January 2010. CPO production, consequently, reached 92,116 tons (+17.3% YoY) – helped also by FFB processed from third parties.

Comments:

l More third party purchases. Note that the company’s third party purchases have increased to around 20% of the internal production from 10% in May 2010. This is largely because of the aging plantations profile. As such, third party FFB purchases increased by 143% to 70,163 tons in January 2011.

l The FFB yield is likely to decline slightly to 19.4ton/ha. Annualized, the implied yield would be around 19.9ton/ha, assuming January’s production is about 7-8% of the total annual production. We, however, conservatively estimate a lower yield of 19.4ton/ha (much lower than BWPT’s yield of more than 25.0ton/ha). This owes to the aging plantations profile, exacerbated by a lack of fertilizer application in plasma areas and bad weather.

l Land bank is still an issue. Mid-term production growth is likely to come from the 2007 plantings of 16,800ha, which shall begin to mature this year, albeit still yielding a low 3-4ton/ha. Extraction rates of palm oil and palm kernel are likely to stay at the 22-23% and 5% levels, respectively. We therefore expect CPO production to reach 1.1mn tons in 2011, up a mere 4.7% YoY. Expansion will slow as new land bank is limited.

l Maintain HOLD. Our TP of Rp24,500 is based on 16.5x 2011E PER, a 1.0x std-deviation to the sector’s 7-year mean, taking into account the current CPO price momentum as supply constraints prevail.

Asia Equity Strategy - Foreign investor capitulation - more signs - Credit Suisse

■ Net foreign selling reaches US$7.4 bn. With net foreign selling of US$1.7 bn on 10 February and a further US$1.6 bn on 11 February, net foreign selling in Emerging Asia ex. China has now reached US$4.6 bn in February. If we add the net foreign selling out of China (using the weekly EPFR data), aggregate net foreign selling in Emerging Asia has already reached US$7.4 bn.

■ Average net foreign selling in Emerging Asia in non-recession corrections is US$8.8 bn. Given the high degree of investor concern about outflows from GEM, we note that the net foreign selling of US$7.4 bn we have seen so far is not much below the average of US$8.8 bn seen in previous non-recession corrections (admittedly our EPFR data for China only goes back to 2008).

■ Foreign investors starting to nibble in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Foreign investors are now net sellers of all markets YTD in 2011 except for Taiwan. Interestingly, foreign investors are starting to nibble in Indonesia and Thailand. In Indonesia, we saw net foreign buying of US$195 mn yesterday – and it was the third day of net foreign buying in the last five days. In Thailand, we saw net foreign buying of US$66 mn yesterday – the first day of net foreign buying after five consecutive days of net foreign selling. In Korea, we saw net foreign buying of US$33 mn yesterday, the first day of net foreign buying after four consecutive days of net selling.

Indonesia Banks - 2010 Ended Strongly: Recent Data Points and Result Preview - Citigroup

 Record loan disbursements and deposit mobilization in December— The key takeaways from Dec 2010 industry data are: 1) strong loan growth of 23% in 2010, led by Private National Banks; 2) Deposits rising sharply near year-end (2010 growth of 19%) with State-Owned banks raising CASA by 17% (m-o-m); and 3) lending-deposit spreads narrowing to 3-year low of 8%. Sustaining loan growth into 2011, in our opinion, will be constrained by inflation. Bank Indonesia expects loan growth of 19-23%, and Citi forecasts are based on 20% loan growth (management guidance).

 Out and Under Performers? — BBCA and BDMN are likely to be beneficiaries of strong 2010 loan growth (inferring from 28% loan growth for Private National banks). BBNI and BBRI are most likely to be laggards, as State Owned banks loan growth was only 18% (BMRI has indicated above 20% loan growth for 2010). SOE banks though will show a healthy balance sheet due to December surge in CASA deposits, which tend to reverse in Q1.

 Result Calendar — BDMN will kick off the FY10 result season on Feb 17, with expected 88% EPS growth. Results from other banks are expected, based on initial management guidance, in end Feb (BBNI and BBTN) and end March (BBCA, BMRI and BBRI). Citi forecasts are above Consensus for BBCA and BBTN, below for BBNI, BBRI and BDMN and in line with for BMRI.

 Surprise Factor — Credit costs and in particular cash write backs are the biggest unknowns (BBCA and BBNI in particular). Additional Reserve Requirements for banks from Nov 2010 and declining spreads are negative for NIMs but may be offset by higher loan growth and lower dependence on Time Deposits. Consensus EPS growth forecast is 28% for 2010F and 19% for 2011F. Recently, both have been revised down marginally. Amongst banks, down revisions have been for BMRI, BBCA and BBRI while BBNI has been revised up for 2011.

DOID: Right issue required… - Mandiri Sekuritas

Given robust coal demand, Buma, the principal operating subsidiary of Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) would benefit from the robust backlog contract from large-reputable coal producers. From the current project we expect Buma’s EBITDA to grow by 16.3% CAGR10F-12F up to US$295mn. Strong operating cash flow should only cover existing project. To expand further, more capital is required since it will reach its credit limit in our view. If we considering equity recapitalization, followed by potential dilution on ROE, less attractive valuation is expected in the near term, but it’s better justified and represent better capital structure risk compare to peers (see exhibit 3). Stronger capital means further expansion and additional value cr eation. We initiate coverage on DOID with a Buy rating and TP at Rp1,600 implying 14.9xPER11F

Robust backlog contract. Buma enganges in a medium-long term coal mining services contract with large and reputable Indonesia’s coal producers such as Berau, Adaro, Kideco, Arutmin, and Bayan Group. Buma accounted around 17% market share of the aggregate coal production in Indonesia in 2008-2009. As of 31 December 2010, Buma has total backlog contracts for coal mining and overburden removal of 389Mt and 3,162mm bcm respectively, which worth more than US$6.0bn gross revenue.

Shareholders transformation. Last year DOID launched internal restructuring at shareholder level and debt refinancing that lowered its cost of debt significantly by more than 5%. The new shareholders of TPG Capital, Government of Singapore Investment Corporation Pte Ltd (GIC) and China Investment Corporation (CIC) have joined the investor consortium with non-voting interest in Northstar Tambang Persada (NTP), a 40% shareholder of DOID, likely to help clarify the ultimate owners of Northstar’s stake in DOID and should reduce earning risk.

Buy rating. We initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating with TP of Rp1,600 per share implying 14.9xPER11F and 7.1x EV/EBITDA11F. We use blended method valuation combining DCF and relative multiples. We use WACC of 12.7% and target PER11F and EV/EBITDA of 15.0x and 7.0x respectively.

Underlying risks. The main risk faced by the company is related to possible changes or termination in contracts, increasing competition, government regulations, which will pose risks for its business continuity. Other risks include but not limited to fluctuation in fuel prices, materials, weather, and country risks.

Late Buying Helps IDX Composite Recovers - The Indonesia Today

Composite index of IDX closed slightly higher by 0.01% at 3.416,795, with late buying helping the index recovered from its morning losses. Rebound of some regional markets also supported the buying in local stocks ahead of the market close.

Leading gainers were Bank Danamon which jumped 3.25%, AGIS that rose 0.79% and Matahari which rocketed 17.36% following its dividend and non-current assets divestment reports.

Leading losers were Delta Dunia (-4.65%), Adaro Energy (3.09%), Bukit Asam (-1.78%) and Elnusa (-1.59%).

Astra, BCA and Bumi also slipped. While Telkom and Bank Mandiri traded flat.

State airline continues further correction by decreasing 5.08% today. With the fall, the company had dropped up to 15.7% in the first 3 days trade.

Regional stocks closed mixed, led by Hang Seng which hiked 1.12%, followed by Shanghai SSE (0.86%), Nikkei (0.57%), Straits Times (0.56%), and Bursa Malaysia (0.06%). Meanwhile, Kospi fell 1.06%, and All Ordinaries slipped 0.02%.

Rupiah strengthened 0.2% to Rp8,904 against the dollar. Crude oil increased 0.63% to US$84.84 per barrel.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 17 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk Kamis, 17 Februari 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities
Pada Rabu (16/2), IHSG ditutup naik tipis 0,018 poin ke level 3.416,78 setelah sempat minus pada sesi pertama. Terlihat fase konsolidasi indeks masih berlanjut paling tidak sampai dengan keluarnya laporan keuangan emiten. Asing kemarin melakukan net buying Rp 16 miliar di pasar reguler dengan sektor yang paling banyak masuk adalah perbankan dan pertambangan. Pada Kamis (17/2), indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.334-3.449. Amati TINS, UNVR, AALI dan BBRI.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Secara teknikal, indeks pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.396-3.434. Pergerakan indeks dapat dipengaruhi oleh bursa global, menyusul dirilisnya data perindustrian dan kegiatan manufaktur AS. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan adalah TINS, UNVR, ROTI, BBRI.

3. Erdhika Sekuritas
Penguatan indeks kemarin ditopang oleh sektor konsumsi sebesar 1,2%, sementara pelemahan terbesar terjadi di sektor perkebunan sebesar 1,87%. Indeks hari ini akan bergerak pada kisaran 3.397-3.437. Saham-saham rekomendasi kami adalah JPFA, UNVR, MLPL.

4. Kresna Sekuriondo
IHSG tertekan pada awal perdagangan kemarin, namun kembali menguat dipimpin oleh UNVR dan BBRI. Angka inflasi AS yang diekspektasi mencapai 1,6% akan menjadi katalis pergerakan global hari ini. Di sisi lain, indeks hari ini diperkirakan kembali berada di area positif di kisaran 3.380-3.456. BBRI dan PGAS menjadi saham pilihan hari ini.

Semen Baturaja set for Rp1 trio IPO - Insider Stories

Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (MSOE) aims to privatize 35% shareholding in cement maker PT Semen Baturaja via initial public offering (IPO) in the third quarter of this year. The IPO is targeted to reach more than Rp1 trillion.

"We hope Privatization Committee at MSOE will approve the IPO in this quarter and we expect Semen Baturaja will get approval from House of Representative in the second quarter," said Pandu Djajanto, Deputy Restructuring and Privatization at MSOE said today.

Semen Baturaja plans to jack up production capacity to 1.5 million tons-2 million tons annually from 1.2 million tons.

Following Semen Baturaja IPO, MSOE is also planning to divest shareholding in two state-owned contractors PT Waskita Karya and PT Hutama Karya in 3Q with a target proceed of up to Rp1 trillion. The ministry is also planning to set up IPO of two or three operating companies under agriculture holding in the second half of this year.

Three SOEs will be disposed via strategic sale. MSOE plans to sell 100% shareholding in PT Sarana Karya, up to 52.79% shareholding in PT Primissima, and 40.8% shareholding in PT Kertas Padalarang.
Pandu said PT Timah Tbk (TINS) and PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) are interested to acquire PT Sarana Karya.

Palm futures end sharply lower - Business Times

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Bhd closed sharply lower yesterday on profit-taking, dealers said.

They said market players took the cue from the sharp losses in soyabean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade as well as the decline of other commodities globally on Tuesday.

February 2011 declined by RM148 to close at RM3,820 per tonne, March 2011 fell RM177 to RM3,790, April 2011 shed RM188 to RM3,745 and May 2011 slipped RM190 to RM3,695.

Total volume increased to 25,895 lots from 22,646 while open interest fell to 101,211 contracts from 101,509 contracts previously.

RUBBER

RUBBER prices continued to climb yesterday despite a downtrend in Tokyo rubber futures, a dealer said. He said limited supply in major producing countries supported physical rubber prices in staying higher.

At noon, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 rose 2 sen to a new high of 1,724.5 sen a kg while latex-in-bulk added 3 sen to 1,065.5 sen a kg.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 fell 14 sen to 1,713.5 sen a kg, but latex-in-bulk added 0.5 sen to 1,067.0 sen a kg.

TIN

THE tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) soared to another all-time high yesterday, rising sharply by US$500 (US$1.00 = RM3.04) to settle at 32,200 per tonne, as supply fears continued to pressure the price.

A dealer said overseas buying has been the engine behind the price rally, which is expected to continue as traders continued to chase supply.

"Sellers are refusing to sell at the current price level as they waiting for the price to reach US$35,000 in the near future," he added.

Similarly, the tin price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also hit an all-time high of US$32,550, moving higher by US$750 per tonne on lower production,especially from the world's second largest producer of the metal, Indonesia.

The local market was closed on Tuesday for the Maulidur Rasul holiday. At the opening bell yesterday, buyers bid for 100 tonnes, while sellers offered only 30 tonnes.

Turnover decreased to 55 tonnes from 59 tonnes last Monday, with the participation of Japanese, European and local traders. The premium between the KLTM and the LME narrowed to US$115 per tonne today against US$365 per tonne previously. — Bernama

Brent crude settles up 2 pct on Israel-Iran tension - Reuters

Feb 16 (Reuters) - ICE Brent crude oil futures surged 2.1 percent and settled above $103 a barrel on Wednesday as fresh tensions between Israel and Iran added to concerns about Middle East unrest that already had markets on edge.

Brent crude futures jumped above $104 a barrel intraday.

Brent crude for March delivery LCOJ1 rose $2.14, or 2.1 percent to settle at $103.78 a barrel, trading from $101.73 to $104.52.

Astra Agro CPO Production Grows 17% in January - The Indonesia Today

Plantation company PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) reported it produced 92,116 tons of crude palm oil (CPO) in January 2011, increased 17.3% from 78,524 tons in January 2010. For whole year of 2010, it produced 1.11 million tons of CPO.

The company said its FFB production in January 2011 reached 333,582 tons, rose by 10.9% compared to the same period last year. The increase was mainly supported by the growth in Sumatra & Kalimantan area of 11.8% and 27.9% respectively.

World CPO Consumption in 2010 reached 46.2 million tons or 0.7 million tons higher than its production. In the same period, production of world
major vegetable oils was 121.7 million tons, an increase of 4.9% compared to last year. On the other hand, it’s consumption decreased to 121.4 million or 0.3 million tons lower than its production.

Crude Palm Oil Falls 3.6%; DCE, CBOT Also Hit By Profit-Taking - Palm OilHQ

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange ended lower Wednesday as profit taking and sharp losses hit Chicago soyoil and Chinese commodities.

The new benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended down MYR140, or 3.6%, at MYR3,745 a metric ton after moving in a range of MYR3,741-MYR3,822. The market was closed for a public holiday on Tuesday.

Investors shrugged off price-friendly export figures due to improved South American soybean crop prospects. Fears that sharp recent increases in global vegetable oil prices may constrain future demand exacerbated the fall in palm oil prices.

Malaysia’s outbound sales of palm oil during the Feb. 1-15 period rose 7.3% from a month earlier to 610,087 tons, according to cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. Another surveyor, Intertek Agri Services, Tuesday pegged exports at 636,966 tons, compared with 589,010 tons during the Jan. 1-15 period.

Palm oil’s decline to its lowest level since Dec. 17 followed losses overnight in soybean and soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, as traders cut risky positions following higher soybean crop estimates for Brazil and rains in Argentina diminished the threat of prolonged tightness in supplies.

Soybean, palm oil and soyoil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange ended lower Wednesday, after soyoil futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 115 points or 2% to 56.64 cents a pound overnight, and recovered only marginally in screen trade.

The most-active rupiah-denominated April CPO contract on the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange was trading 3.1% lower at IDR11,015 a ton at 0945 GMT.

CME Group’s dollar-denominated palm oil contract for May delivery was $25.75 lower at $1,235/ton.

In the cash market, palm olein for April, May and June delivery traded at $1,270/ton, and shipments for July, August, September at $1,222.50 and $1,220/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based physical market broker said.

Open interest on the BMD was 101,210 lots, versus 101,509 lots Monday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.

A total of 26,026 lots of CPO were traded versus 23,805 lots Monday.

Garuda IPO & lack of readiness - Insider Stories

Amid the pressure on stock price of PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (GIAA), which reached Rp590 at closing of Monday’s trading from IPO level at Rp750, Minister of Finance Agus D.W Martowardojo thought that the disappointment in the initial public offering (IPO) of the state-owned airline was caused by lack or arrangement before the action.

The Minister viewed that Garuda should have done a better preparation before the IPO, including completing a reverse stock. Regardless of all, Garuda has become a public company whose performance is expected to improve after the IPO.
“Garuda could have done a better preparation before the IPO. For example, making a reverse stock split,” he said on Monday.

In IPO, Garuda offered 6.34 billion stocks, or 27.89%, that included 4.40 billion new shares and 1.94 billion shares belonging to PT Bank Mandiri Tbk.
According to the agreement, three underwriters were committed to guarantee 6.34 billion shares worth as much as IDR4.7 trillion.
Those three underwriters and its affiliation were obliged to absorb 3.01 billion shares. Meanwhile, public investors absorbed 3.33 billion shares through pooling and fixed allotment.

“I think that the main task of the underwriters is to guarantee. It means that they must absorb. The must have the strategy to reduce the burden. And in business world, there are times when we gain and lose,” the minister said.
However, Agus still encouraged other state-owned companies to conduct IPO once they are assumedly appropriate to go public. Basically, the government will not hinder other state companies willing to make IPO as long as the preparation is well done, so the result will be optimal.

Rabu, 16 Februari 2011

Daily 16 Feb 2011 (BMRI, BDMN, EXCL, PTBA, TPIA, MPPA, META, MLPL)

Laba bersih Bank Mandiri naik 23,7% (BMRI, Rp5,600 )

· Bank Mandiri membukukan laba bersih 2010 (unaudited) sebesar Rp8,85tn yang naik 23,6% dari Rp7,16tn di 2009. Pertumbuhan laba bersih perseroan didukung oleh pendapatan bunga senilai Rp30,4tn di 2010.

· Bank Mandiri juga memperoleh pendapatan non bunga sebesar Rp8,3tn dari surat berharga dan transaksi spot dan derivatif. Dana pihak ketiga Mandiri berupa giro, tabungan, dan deposito hingga akhir 2010 mencapai Rp332,1tn.

· BMRI diperdagangkan di PER consensus 11.5x dan PBV 2.4x.



Bank Danamon untung Rp2,8tn di 2010 (BDMN, Rp6,200)

· PT Bank Danamon Tbk meraih laba bersih (unaudited) Rp2,88tn di 2010, naik 88% dibandingkan laba di 2009. Pertumbuhan laba bersih didukung oleh pendapatan bunga senilai Rp11,9tn.

· Dana pihak ketiga yang ada di Danamon berupa giro, tabungan, dan deposito hingga akhir 2010 mencapai Rp79,53tn.

· BDMN diperdagangkan di PER consensus 14.2x dan PBV 2.6x.
XL Axiata targetkan penumbuhan pendapatan 10% (EXCL, Rp5,200)
· XL Axiata menargetkan penumbuhan pendapatan sebesar 10% tahun ini. Pendapatan EXCL di 2010 tumbuh 27% dari Rp13,88tn di 2009 menjadi Rp 17,63tn. Laba bersih EXCL di 2010 naik 69% menjadi 2,89tn.
· Perseroan mencatatkan arus kas positif yang diperoleh dari aktivitas operasional dan kegiatan investasi sebesar Rp8,79tn dan Rp5,05tn.
· EXCL diperdagangkan di PER consensus 10.2x dan EV/EBITDA 5.0x.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam ekspansi 3 dermaga batubara (PTBA, Rp19,700)
· Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam berencana ekspansi 3 dermaga batubara dengan nilai anggaran sebesar Rp550milyar. Dana anggaran ini termasuk didalam anggaran belanja modal tahun ini yang senilai Rp1,8tn.
· PTBA juga bekerja sama dengan Kereta Api Indonesia meningkatkan daya angkut batubara yang mencapai 13,5jt ton tahun ini. Sementara itu, PTBA memproyeksikan volume penjualan tahun ini meningkat 30%.
· PTBA diperdagangkan di PER consensus 12.9x dan EV/EBITDA 8.6x.

Chandra Asri bangun terminal LPG di cilegon (TPIA, Rp3,800)
· Chandra Asri Petrochemical bekerja sama dengan perusahaan Singapore, Vopak Asia Pte. Ltd, membangun terminal liquefied petroleum gas di Cilegon, Banten. Nilai investasi pembangunan ini adalah sebesar US$150jt.
· Nilai investasi lain sebesar Rp300milyar digunakan untuk penambahan mesin baru demi meningkatkan produksi yang akan beroperasi pada April 2011.
· TPIA berencana membangun pabrik butadiene pertama di Indonesia yang diharapkan selesai pada pertengahan 2013.

Matahari Putra Prima targetkan penumbuhan pendapatan 20% (MPPA, Rp1,440)
· Matahari Putra Prima berencana membuka 17 gerai hypermart baru tahun ini. Perseroan berencana mendapatkan 20% pertumbuhan pendapatan dan laba bersih 15%.
· MPPA menganggarkan belanja modal Rp1tn yang sumbernya diambil dari kas internal.
· Perseroan berencana mendivestasi divisi Matahari Food Business yang merupakan anak usaha di luar bisnisnya. Nilai asset dari divestasi ini sekitar Rp3tn.
· MPPA diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 18.2x.

Nusantara Infrastruktur membidik tol baru di Jawa Timur (META, Rp300)
· Nusantara Infrastruktur mengincar proyek tol baru di Jawa Timur dengan nilai akuisisi JORR W1 sebesar US$300jt.
· META menyiapkan belanja modal proyek tol Jawa Timur sebesar Rp4tn, yang merupakan bagian dari belanja modal jangka panjang untuk akuisisi sebesar Rp38tn.

Multipolar menganggarkan investasi dan pembagian dividen (MLPL, Rp260)
· Multipolar akan mendirikan 7 outlet baru di China dengan nilai investasi mencapai US$70jt. Dari total investasi, sebesar US$12-15jt diinvestasikan untuk pengembangan jasa lain.
· Multipolar membagikan dividen Rp10 per lembar atau sebesar 2,75% dari total laba bersih sebesar Rp2,8tn, meningkat 240 kali lipat dari Rp110,7milyar di 2009. Sepanjang tahun lalu total asset perseroan meningkat 18,1% dari Rp11,68tn di 2009 menjadi Rp14,01tn.
· Dividend yield sebesar 3,8%.
· Kewajiban perseroan turun 34,5% dari Rp8,42tn di 2009 ke Rp5,51tn di 2010.

ENRG:No more delay - Mandiri Sekuritas

ENRG confirmed that all projects are on schedule with the signing of GSA in the Kangean TSB field attractively priced at US$5.15/boe, higher than the initial estimate of US$3.7-4.2/boe. This is a positive development after delays in the past marred ENRG’s outlook. In addition, small but meaningful flow from the Kangean PUO and Bentu PSC showed that ENRG keeps ramping up its reserves. On the other hand, we should value ENRG’s acquisition of the offshore Masela Block, which was very cheaply priced at US$0.3/boe. Valuation wise, ENRG still trades cheaply at EV/2P US$1.4/boe, the lowest among its peers. Maintain Buy at Rp180/share.

Kangean GSA has been signed. ENRG has recently signed the GSA for the Kangean PSC with PLN, Pertamina Gas (Pertagas), and Indogas. As a result of rising commodity and energy prices, gas ASP was also attractive at US$5.15/mmbtu (3% escalation), higher than the expectation of US$3.7-4.2/boe. We see the signing positively as this is a final affirmation that the Kangean TSB field (25 mboepd of gas) is on schedule to produce first gas in 1Q12. High ASP will certainly beneficial for ENRG and may also be seen as the first step to obtain deal with even higher ASP in the future.

Ramping up production continues. Previously, ENRG has also commenced oil and gas production at the Kangean PUO field and Bentu PSC totaling 2,500 boepd oil and 3,500 boepd gas, respectively. We consider this a satisfactory performance while ENRG is for the Kangean TSB’s flow next year. In addition to that, oil discovery from the Malacca Strait and Gelam TAC (totaling around 1,200 bopd) provided us high conviction that production ramp up is occurring.

Masela: one of the finest deals. Many investors have realized that Masela block contains abundant gas and condensate reserve of around 306 mmboe (net WI). Yet, the interesting part rarely exposed is that the resource-rich block (30-year worth of LNG) was bought at a very attractive price of about US$0.3/boe, much lower than 2010 deals average of US$10.6/boe (IHS Global Upstream M&A). This indicated ENRG’s good bargaining ability to acquire valuable projects. Moreover, Masela purchase not only raised ENRG reserve upward but also R/P ratio to 7.2 years (higher than peer average), which we think is fairly essential for an upstream company.

Maintain Buy recommendation at Rp180/share. Valuation wise, we view ENRG is at a very appealing level with EV/2P US$1.4/boe, which is the lowest among its peers (table 3), thanks to Masela. However, we admit concerns over its interest burden are still there although it is already minimized post rights issue last year. Hence, we maintain our Buy call on ENRG at TP of Rp180 (25% discount).

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) – ready to facilitate - CLSA Indo

Analyst Bret Ginesky is revisiting Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ), the largest low-end mortgage lender in the country. Bret continues to be upbeat on the bank’s long-term prospect. We agree that the bank is well positioned to take advantage of the structural long-term mortgage growth (national housing demand about 800k per annum with supply of only 200k), however, on a shorter-term horizon, the bank is facing headwinds:
· First, to fully tap into the government subsidy, BBTN still has to raise about Rp4tn this year.
· Already, BBTN this morning announced that the Medium Term Notes (MTN) raising of US$55-110m will be delayed
· Second, the 33% BBTN loan growth (highest forecasted for banks under coverage) appears a tad aggressive in this environment

We prefer Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) as both banks have secured capital to support robust loan growth – trading at 2x and .2.4x PBV, respectively.

Key points from the report:
· Indo is short of 8.5m homes, with 200k mortgage-able homes built p.a.
· BTN finances > 50% of these homes, which are subsidized at fixed rates with relatively fixed funding
· Less sensitive to rising rates as subsidized mortgages have matched funding, while non-subsidized mortgages are variable rate
· 2010 could disappoint due to govt delays in implementing a liquidity facility and tax issues
· Currently valued at 2011CL 1.6x PBV & 9.1x PE is at a discount to Indonesian peers
· BUY rating with TP of Rp2,400, valuing the company at 2011CL 2.9x PBV & 17.4x PE

Palm Oil : Legislative asks Government of Indonesia to review progressive CPO export tax - Mandiri Sekuritas

 Legislative asks Government of Indonesia to review progressive CPO export tax. Legislative and Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) propose to Government of Indonesia to change CPO export tax from progressive tax scheme to flat tax scheme. GAPKI proposes to Government of Indonesia flat tax rate of 3% if international CPO price more than US$700/ton.

 In current high CPO price, Indonesia CPO planter companies should get benefit from narrowing difference between domestic CPO price and international CPO price if the Government of Indonesia agrees to change CPO export tax from progressive tax scheme to flat tax scheme.

Daily Focus 16 Feb 2011 - DBS Indo

Banking
Sterling FY10 results
The Indonesian banking industry covering both commercial and rural banks, reported a 21.1% y-o-y growth in total distribution of funds to Rp2,808tr. Total banking assets increased 19% to Rp3,053tr from FY09’s Rp2,571.5tr. Commercial banks (excluding sharia banks) booked 15% higher total credits of Rp2,831.8tr with FY10 NPL ratio declining to 2.57% from 3.3% in FY09. Commercial banks’ total operating income expanded 16.3% to Rp119.15tr with net profit rising 22% to Rp22.76tr. As at end FY10, CAR including operational risk of commercial banks stood at 17.18% with LDR at 75.2% (below the BI’s target of 78%). SOE banks recorded NIM of 6.11%, which is higher than commercial banks’ NIM of 5.73%.

Bukit Asam: Buy; Rp19,700; TP Rp26,650; PTBA IJ
To expand port capacity to 50m tons by end of 2015
Bukit Asam plans to spend Rp2.7tn (US$300m) to boost its port capacity to 50m tons (194%) by end of 2015. Out of Rp1.8tn capex this year, PTBA has set aside Rp550bn for port capacity expansion. The company also plans to increase railway transportation capacity by adding new locomotives and wagons to expand capacity from 11.5m tons to 14m tons by end of this year. We believe that PTBA is on track to build up its logistics network in order to catch up with massive railway capacity expansion that is expected to rise from 11.5m tons in 2010 to 47m tons by end of 2015. The stock is trading at an attractive 11.3x FY11F PE which is below its five years’ average PE of 15.0x. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp26,650 implying 17x FY11F PE and 35% upside potential.

Daily 14 Feb 2011 (SMAR, BBTN, BWPT, MLPL, ADHI, NIKL) - NISP Sekuritas

SMART membangun pabrik pengolahan sawit (SMAR, 5.250)
· SMART Tbk akan membangun pabrik pengolahan kelapa sawit baru senilai US$ 500 juta bertujuan untuk meningkatkan produksi minyak kelapa sawit. Perusahaan berniat mendirikan refinery plant.
· Saat ini SMAR telah memiliki empat pabrik dengan kapasitas total 4.600 ton per hari. Total kapasitas ke empat pabrik tersebut mencapai 4.600 ton per hari atau 1,31 juta ton per tahun
· Saat ini SMAR tengah membangun sebuah pabrik di Tarhun, Kalimantan Selatan, dengan kapasitas produksi 340.000 ton per tahun.

BTN tunda penerbitan obligasi (BBTN, Rp1,300)
· Bank Tabungan Negara memutuskan untuk menunda penerbitan surat utang jangka menengah senilai Rp500M. Hal ini disebabkan karena permintaan bunga yang tinggi oleh pelaksana penjamin emisi.
· Tingginya bunga disebabkan oleh kondisi pasar yang tidak kondusif. Perusahaan akan terus memantau keadaan pasar untuk melihat waktu yang tepat.
· BBTN diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 10,5x dan PBV 1,7x.

Produksi CPO BW Plantation meningkat 63% YoY di Januari 2010 (BWPT, Rp1.150)
· BW Plantation memproduksi 8.868 ton CPO di bulan Januari 2011, meningkat 63% YoY dibanding 5.427 ton di bulan Januari 2010. Ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan produksi TBS yang meningkat sebesar 69% YoY dari 22.914 ton menjadi 38.708 ton.
· Sedangkan volume penjualan hampir tidak berubah dari 89.965 ton menjadi 91.382 ton.
· Produksi kerenel preusahaan naik dari 894 ton menjadi 1.471 ton dan volume penjualan kernel perusahaan meningkat 10,3% menjadi 16.118 ton dari 14.615ton.
· BWPT diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 15,0x and EV/EBITDA 9,8x.

Multipolar menargetkan pertumbuhan 7,2% YoY (MLPL, Rp295)
· PT Multipolar Tbk, induk usaha grup Matahari, memproyeksikan pendapatan senilai Rp12tn pada 2011, naik 7,2% dibandingkan dengan pencapaian 2010 senilai Rp11,2 tn.
· Pendapatan tetap (recurring income) ditargetkan naik 23,9% menjadi Rp12 triliun, dari Rp9,7tn di 2009. Tahun lalu Multipolar meraup Rp1,5tn pendapatan luar biasa akibat penjualan Matahari Department Store.
· Tahun ini 17 gerai Hypermarket baru direncanakan untuk dibuka oleh perusahaan.

Adhi Karya raih kontrak jalan tol tangerang (ADHI, Rp760)
· Adhi Karya meraih kontrak baru dari Jasa Marga dengan nilai kontrak sebesar Rp 131,43M. ADHI mendapat kontrak pekerjaan penambahan jalur baru yg berada di ruas tol Jakarta-Tangerang. Manajemen ADHI mengharapkan bias mengantongi total kontrak baru senilai Rp 12,5T sepanjang tahun 2011.
· Sebanyak 15% dari target total, atau senilai Rp 1,9T, diharapkan datqng dari proyek jalan tol. Selain proyek jalan tol, Adhi Karya juga meraih kontrak baru untuk proyek pembangunan empat pembangkit listrik di Kalimantan dan Sumatra. Total nilai kontraknya mencapai Rp 3,5T.
· Adhi Karya optimis bisa mencatakan pertumbuhan pendapatan di 2011 sebesar 51,2% menjadi Rp 9,15T. Laba bersih berpeluang meningkat 9,71% menjadi Rp 203,55M
· ADHI diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 6.8x dan EV/EBITDA 3.9x.

Pelat Timah Nusantara targetkan penjualan naik 15% (NIKL, Rp 370)
· Pelat Timah Nusantara atau Latinusa menargetkan penjualan tumbuh 15% di tahun 2011. Nilai penjualan di 2010 lebih tinggi 10% dibandingkan di 2009. Penyebab pertumbuhan penjualan adalah peningkatan volume produksi sekaligus penjualan. NIKL menargetkan volume produksi dan penjualan sepanjang tahun 2011 meningkat menjadi 115,000 ton.
· Latinusa berencana mengganti mesin produksi dengan menggunakan anggaran total sebesar US$ 14,75juta atau sekitar Rp 131,83M. Dari total anggaran itu, yang terpakai tahun ini berkisar US$ 10juta sampai US$ 11juta. Kebutuhan dana itu diambil dari hasil penawaran saham perdana.
· NIKL diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 9.9x dan EV/EBITDA 5.6x.

Bank Tabungan Negara: Buy; Rp1,300; TP Rp2,500; BBTN IJ - DBS

Booked Rp2.06tr from Property Expo

BBTN booked a total transaction value of Rp2.06tr from BTN Property Expo held on 5-13 February 2011. Value of property transactions amounted to Rp2tr from mass housing, flats and shop-houses on top of Rp361m from furniture and Rp270m from electronic products sales. Apart from these, BBTN also projected housing transaction commitments of Rp800m made by prospective buyers during the exhibition. Total transaction volume made during the Expo reached 728 housing units mostly from landed house sales in Jakarta and the outskirts. Total property transaction of Rp2tr in this expo contributes 3% from our estimated loans in FY11F of Rp64.8tr. BBTN plans to hold the Expo in 2012 and is targeting 25%-30% growth in transaction value. BBTN is currently trading at 8.5x FY11 EPS and 1.5x FY11 BV. Maintain Buy with TP of Rp2,500.

Indonesia cement – a fresh re-look into the investment thesis - JP Morgan

Liliana Bambang (analyst) has updated her earnings forecasts and thoughts on INTP and SMGR. She downgrades INTP from O/W to Neutral, after trimming her FY11-12 EPS by 10% and 12% (10% below consensus FY11). She maintains SMGR as O/W but trims her FY11-12 EPS by 5% and 1% (9% below consensus FY11). Liliana’s inclination is to play defense with the cement stocks (ie: wait), as she thinks the government’s plan to remove fuel subsidy might become an overhang for the stock.

My personal thoughts on the cement stocks:

* Earnings downgrade already priced-in by the market. On page 18 of the report, the P/E band for SMGR shows unwarranted de-rating based on the lowered EPS forecast. If SMGR can mean revert to 13x forward P/E, the stock can recover to Rp10,200 or 20% upside.

* Industry volume growth forecast conservative relative to last GDP report. Indonesia’s fourth quarter real GDP came in as stronger than expected, rising 6.9%oya and up 7.5%q/q, saar (J.P. Morgan 5.5%oya, consensus 6.5%oya). From 2007-08 period, we saw that two consecutive years of solid GDP growth (6.3% in 2007 and 6.1% in 2008) resulted in strong industry volume growth, especially in the second year (6.9% in 2007 and 11.4% in 2008). Liliana currently forecasts slowing industry volume growth, from 6.3% in 2010 to 4.8% in 2011 (despite consensus GDP forecast showing economic acceleration, and despite the rainy 2010 as the base).

* Buy Semen Gresik (SMGR). Bottom-up, it appears that the market has not fully priced-in the likely commissioning of SMGR’s new cement capacity in 2011-12. Even on Liliana’s lowered EPS number, SMGR looks attractive on 13x FY11 with 21% EPS growth forecast for FY12 (vs INTP on 15x FY11 with 12% EPS growth in FY12).

Selasa, 15 Februari 2011

Harum Energy Lunasi Sisa Utang USD5 juta Kepada Sindikasi Kreditur

PT Harum Energy Tbk (HRUM) mengumumkan telah melakukan pelunasan atas sisa utang perseroan sebesar USD5 juta kepada sindikasi kreditur yang diatur oleh Bank DBS Ltd-Singapura selaku Agen fasilitas pada tanggal 7 Februari 2011.

Demikian diungkapkan Direktur Utama PT Harum Energy Tbk Ray Antonio Gunara, dalam keterbukaan informasi BEI, Jakarta, Senin (14/2).

"Pada 7 Februari 2011, kita telah melakukan pelunasan atas sisa utang perseroan sebesar USD5 juta kepada sindikasi kreditur yang diatur oleh Bank DBS Ltd-Singapura selaku Agen fasilitas," imbuhnya.

Perseroan mengklaim bahwa pemberitahuan ini telah sesuai dengan ketentuan yang diatur dalam keputusan direksi PT Bursa Efek Jakarta No. Kep-306/BEJ/07-2004 mengenai peraturan I-E tentang kewajiban penyampaian informasi- angka IV mengenai laporan Insedentil serta keputusan Ketua Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal Nomor Kep-86/PM/1996 tentang keterbukaan informasi yang Harus Segera Diumumkan ke Publik.

Multipolar Bagi Dividen Rp 10 per Saham

PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) memutuskan untuk membagikan dividen sebesar Rp 10 per saham. Total dividen yang akan dibagikan mencapai Rp 77.275.428.300.

Jumlah dividen ini sangat kecil, setara 2,75% dari total laba bersih yang dicapai perseroan di 2010 Rp 2,8 triliun. Laba bersih tersebut meroket 240 kali lipat dibandingkan 2009 yang sebesar Rp 110.7 miliar.

Demikian hasil RUPST MLPL di Hotel Intercontinental Mid Plaza, Jalan Jenderal Sudirman, Jakarta, Senin (14/2).

Di tahun 2010 pendapatan Multipolar tercatat mencapai Rp 11,2 triliun, ini sudah termasuk penjualan konsinyiasi Rp 2,1 triliun.

Pendapatan berkelanjutan (recurring income) mencapai Rp 9,7 triliun, dengan pendapatan luar biasa di 2010 Rp 2,83 triliun. Laba sebelum pajak dan depresiasi, amortisari diprediksi Rp 467 miliar.

Laba bersih konsolidasi akhirnya mencapai Rp 2,8 triliun, di mana hasil tersebut didapat dari divestasi anak usaha MPPA, Matahari Department Store, dan penghematan biaya bunga.

Asia ex Strategy - Developed vs Asia ex call requires the US$ to rally - Citigroup

 Last year investors could not get enough of Asia, but no more — It is now fashionable to be bearish on the region: seemingly, inflation is out of control even
though inflation rates are below mean for the stage of the cycle; margins will disappoint, yet earnings growth rates have been revised up from 13% to 14.3% for this year, and all of this will lead to monetary overkill. Sell and move on to Developed.

 Bearish call on Asia ex requires the US$ to rally — If the US$ rallies from here
(this would need to be by more than a few %), the Asia ex bears will turn out to be
right. If the US$ does nothing or weakens further, the switch call towards DM will
turn out to be plain wrong. While global investors have a slight overweight in Asia
ex, GEMS investors are actually underweight the region.

 We remain overweight HK, Korea and Taiwan; biggest Asian underweights are India, Malaysia and Indonesia — Valuations in ASEAN and India have corrected but so have earnings revisions. North Asian earnings revisions continue to fare better than those in South Asia. As long as global growth remains firm, North Asia wins out vs South Asia.

The Fastest Fall - 3rd Encore Emerging Markets Equity Strategy - JP Morgan

• MSCI Emerging Market is now down 7% since its recent high on 1165. A typical EM correction is 15-20%; assuming this then the buy zone is below 990. In this report we revisit the historical corrections in emerging equities and put the current correction into perspective.

• The median post-correction 12-month forward return is 35%. This assumes that you can time the bottom. As this is unrealistic, we look at the 12-month forward return after a 15% decline over four weeks. The median forward return from this point is 19% (see Table 3). Note that forward P/Es of MSCI EM is inline with the median post-correction.

• Drivers of current correction are inflation fears, resulting fear of tighter policy and a rotation into developed markets. This type of correction punishes companies with good fundamentals as investors can only sell what they own. We continue to believe in the fundamentals of emerging economies.

• Corrections of this magnitude have historically been buying opportunities except 1997 Asian crisis and credit crisis in 2008. Our key overweight markets are Taiwan, ASEAN ex Indonesia, Russia and Turkey.

Daily 14 Feb 2011 (SMAR, BBTN, BWPT, MLPL, ADHI, NIKL) - NISP Sekuritas

SMART membangun pabrik pengolahan sawit (SMAR, 5.250)
· SMART Tbk akan membangun pabrik pengolahan kelapa sawit baru senilai US$ 500 juta bertujuan untuk meningkatkan produksi minyak kelapa sawit. Perusahaan berniat mendirikan refinery plant.
· Saat ini SMAR telah memiliki empat pabrik dengan kapasitas total 4.600 ton per hari. Total kapasitas ke empat pabrik tersebut mencapai 4.600 ton per hari atau 1,31 juta ton per tahun
· Saat ini SMAR tengah membangun sebuah pabrik di Tarhun, Kalimantan Selatan, dengan kapasitas produksi 340.000 ton per tahun.

BTN tunda penerbitan obligasi (BBTN, Rp1,300)
· Bank Tabungan Negara memutuskan untuk menunda penerbitan surat utang jangka menengah senilai Rp500M. Hal ini disebabkan karena permintaan bunga yang tinggi oleh pelaksana penjamin emisi.
· Tingginya bunga disebabkan oleh kondisi pasar yang tidak kondusif. Perusahaan akan terus memantau keadaan pasar untuk melihat waktu yang tepat.
· BBTN diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 10,5x dan PBV 1,7x.

Produksi CPO BW Plantation meningkat 63% YoY di Januari 2010 (BWPT, Rp1.150)
· BW Plantation memproduksi 8.868 ton CPO di bulan Januari 2011, meningkat 63% YoY dibanding 5.427 ton di bulan Januari 2010. Ini disebabkan oleh peningkatan produksi TBS yang meningkat sebesar 69% YoY dari 22.914 ton menjadi 38.708 ton.
· Sedangkan volume penjualan hampir tidak berubah dari 89.965 ton menjadi 91.382 ton.
· Produksi kerenel preusahaan naik dari 894 ton menjadi 1.471 ton dan volume penjualan kernel perusahaan meningkat 10,3% menjadi 16.118 ton dari 14.615ton.
· BWPT diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 15,0x and EV/EBITDA 9,8x.

Multipolar menargetkan pertumbuhan 7,2% YoY (MLPL, Rp295)
· PT Multipolar Tbk, induk usaha grup Matahari, memproyeksikan pendapatan senilai Rp12tn pada 2011, naik 7,2% dibandingkan dengan pencapaian 2010 senilai Rp11,2 tn.
· Pendapatan tetap (recurring income) ditargetkan naik 23,9% menjadi Rp12 triliun, dari Rp9,7tn di 2009. Tahun lalu Multipolar meraup Rp1,5tn pendapatan luar biasa akibat penjualan Matahari Department Store.
· Tahun ini 17 gerai Hypermarket baru direncanakan untuk dibuka oleh perusahaan.

Adhi Karya raih kontrak jalan tol tangerang (ADHI, Rp760)
· Adhi Karya meraih kontrak baru dari Jasa Marga dengan nilai kontrak sebesar Rp 131,43M. ADHI mendapat kontrak pekerjaan penambahan jalur baru yg berada di ruas tol Jakarta-Tangerang. Manajemen ADHI mengharapkan bias mengantongi total kontrak baru senilai Rp 12,5T sepanjang tahun 2011.
· Sebanyak 15% dari target total, atau senilai Rp 1,9T, diharapkan datqng dari proyek jalan tol. Selain proyek jalan tol, Adhi Karya juga meraih kontrak baru untuk proyek pembangunan empat pembangkit listrik di Kalimantan dan Sumatra. Total nilai kontraknya mencapai Rp 3,5T.
· Adhi Karya optimis bisa mencatakan pertumbuhan pendapatan di 2011 sebesar 51,2% menjadi Rp 9,15T. Laba bersih berpeluang meningkat 9,71% menjadi Rp 203,55M
· ADHI diperdagangkan di PER konsensus 6.8x dan EV/EBITDA 3.9x.