Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Selasa, 15 Februari 2011

The Fastest Fall - 3rd Encore Emerging Markets Equity Strategy - JP Morgan

• MSCI Emerging Market is now down 7% since its recent high on 1165. A typical EM correction is 15-20%; assuming this then the buy zone is below 990. In this report we revisit the historical corrections in emerging equities and put the current correction into perspective.

• The median post-correction 12-month forward return is 35%. This assumes that you can time the bottom. As this is unrealistic, we look at the 12-month forward return after a 15% decline over four weeks. The median forward return from this point is 19% (see Table 3). Note that forward P/Es of MSCI EM is inline with the median post-correction.

• Drivers of current correction are inflation fears, resulting fear of tighter policy and a rotation into developed markets. This type of correction punishes companies with good fundamentals as investors can only sell what they own. We continue to believe in the fundamentals of emerging economies.

• Corrections of this magnitude have historically been buying opportunities except 1997 Asian crisis and credit crisis in 2008. Our key overweight markets are Taiwan, ASEAN ex Indonesia, Russia and Turkey.

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