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Rabu, 16 Februari 2011

Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ) – ready to facilitate - CLSA Indo

Analyst Bret Ginesky is revisiting Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN IJ), the largest low-end mortgage lender in the country. Bret continues to be upbeat on the bank’s long-term prospect. We agree that the bank is well positioned to take advantage of the structural long-term mortgage growth (national housing demand about 800k per annum with supply of only 200k), however, on a shorter-term horizon, the bank is facing headwinds:
· First, to fully tap into the government subsidy, BBTN still has to raise about Rp4tn this year.
· Already, BBTN this morning announced that the Medium Term Notes (MTN) raising of US$55-110m will be delayed
· Second, the 33% BBTN loan growth (highest forecasted for banks under coverage) appears a tad aggressive in this environment

We prefer Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) and Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) as both banks have secured capital to support robust loan growth – trading at 2x and .2.4x PBV, respectively.

Key points from the report:
· Indo is short of 8.5m homes, with 200k mortgage-able homes built p.a.
· BTN finances > 50% of these homes, which are subsidized at fixed rates with relatively fixed funding
· Less sensitive to rising rates as subsidized mortgages have matched funding, while non-subsidized mortgages are variable rate
· 2010 could disappoint due to govt delays in implementing a liquidity facility and tax issues
· Currently valued at 2011CL 1.6x PBV & 9.1x PE is at a discount to Indonesian peers
· BUY rating with TP of Rp2,400, valuing the company at 2011CL 2.9x PBV & 17.4x PE

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