Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 29 Januari 2011

Reuters Bank Mandiri Q4 net profit falls 14 pct-govt

* Bank Mandiri 2010 net profit seen at 8.6 trln rph-govt
* Mandiri Q4 profit at 2.22 trln rph-Reuters calculation
* Bank Rakyat 2010 net profit at 8.5 trln rph-govt
* Bank Negara 2010 net seen at about 2 trln rph-govt

PT Bank Mandiri , Indonesia's largest lender, posted a 14 percent slump in fourth quarter 2010 net profit, as higher provisioning may have squeezed earnings, according to Reuters calculations based on government figures.

The drop comes as investors have reduced their bullishness on Indonesian assets this month on worries over inflation and high valuations, after years of sustained profit growth when Indonesian lenders took advantage of record low interest rates and growing consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

State enterprises minister Mustafa Abubakar said Mandiri earned 8.6 trillion rupiah ($952.7 million) in 2010, in line with expectations by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S for 8.657 trillion rupiah. Full year profit was up 19 percent from 7.2 trillion rupiah in 2009.
Mandiri posted 2.2 trillion rupiah of net profit in the fourth quarter, according to Reuters calculations based on the published nine-month financial result. 


"The figure is expected, I suspect Mandiri has a higher provisioning in the last quarter," said Teguh Hartanto, a senior banking analyst at PT Bahana Securities.


Mandiri's CEO Zulkifli Zaini told Reuters earlier this week that he saw 2011 net profit up by at least 2 trillion rupiah on 2010. 


Mandiri has the most diversified loan book composition among the top banks, giving investors exposure to the entire credit demand spectrum said Nomura, on raising the bank to "buy" from "neutral" in a note on Friday.


Mandiri's stock traded down 0.8 percent by 0706 GMT while the broader market fell 1.2 percent. The stock gained 38 percent in 2010, underperforming the index's 46 percent rally.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia , the second biggest lender, posted 8.5 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, Abubakar said, up 16 percent.


This failed to meet expectations for full-year 2010 net profit of 9.037 trillion rupiah, according to the consensus of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
"It shows that margins were squeezed due to greater competition in microlending," Hartanto said.


BRI's Q4 net profit fell 8 percent to 1.8 trillion rupiah from the year-ago period, according to Reuters calculations based on published first nine month results.


Abubakar also said that PT Bank Negara Indonesia , the fourth biggest bank, was seen posting 2 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, down from 2.48 trillion a year earlier.

This would mean the bank may have failed to meet its expectations for full year 2010 net profit to rise 80 percent, and would be well below analyst forecasts for 3.868 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

BRI and BNI shares traded down 2.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, to underperform the broader market. ($1 = 9027 Rupiah)

Bloomberg BofA Merrill Raises Second-Quarter Coking Coal Forecast to $400

Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its forecast for second-quarter coking coal contract prices by 21 percent to $400 a ton after the disruption to mining caused by floods in Australia’s Queensland state.

Merrill also increased its estimate of combined lost production of coking coal, used by steelmakers, and thermal coal burned at power stations to between 18 million and 23 million metric tons. It previously estimated second-quarter coking coal prices at $330 a ton and put lost output at between 10 million and 20 million tons.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne

The Australian $8bn coal hit wipes year's growth in Queensland

Lost coal production in Queensland will cost up to $8 billion by July according to miners, drowning a full year of state economic growth in the flood disaster.

The Queensland Resources Council yesterday predicted that coal production for the March quarter would crash by between 25 and 50 per cent. Queensland's gross state product for 2010-11 would take a hit of at least $4.5bn, rising to $8bn on the QRC's worst-case scenario.
The fallout for the $50bn coal industry, the nation's biggest single export earner, is an ominous pointer to how high the final bill will climb.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, who today is expected to release preliminary federal costings, this week said Queensland produced 80 per cent of Australia's coking coal, which in turn accounted for 10 per cent of total exports and 2 per cent of GDP.

Releasing the first industry-wide analysis of flood costs, QRC chief executive Michael Roche said it was "not a pretty outlook" for coal producers and the overall economy in Queensland.

Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser will release an update to the 2010-11 state budget today, incorporating running costs of the disaster.

The QRC's assessment of the damage to the coal industry is based on published financial reports and direct feedback from the mining companies, ranging from multinationals BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to local players such as Macarthur Coal .    more ...

The Wall Street Journal Flood disruptions to push up world coal price, says Rio

THE head of Rio Tinto's Australian coal unit says coal prices are headed for big, sustained price rises on the back of the Queensland and NSW rains, with coking coal only likely be capped once they start to make the price of steel too expensive.

Rio Tinto Coal Australia managing director Bill Champion said the effects of the Australian floods were evident in spot pricing and had been compounded by wet weather in Indonesia, South Africa and Colombia.
"It seems like our industry worldwide is having weather-related events impacting supply," Mr Champion said.
"It really depends on what happens with pricing and how high that's likely to get before it really has a knock-on effect, for the steel producers in particular, and whether they can pass those along to the customer."
While contract coking coal prices for this quarter are sitting at $US225 a tonne, spot prices reportedly rose to $US385 a tonne last week and were tipped to go through $US400 to a new record this week.

Mr Champion said he did not believe prices would rise to $US500, as has been suggested by some commentators.
"There are speculators out there tossing around $US400 to $US500 a tonne -- I think that's a bit of a stretch. If there's a tonne that's sold at that price, I certainly hope its ours," he said.
He said Rio's Queensland mines were still under force majeure and it was too early to give estimates on the effect of the weather on this quarter's production.
Mr Champion is also managing director of Rio's NSW coal subsidiary, Coal and Allied, which yesterday reported a 37 per cent drop in full-year operating profit after tax to $586m, despite flat production.    more ...

Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Drop as S&P 500 Has Biggest Decline Since August; Ford Falls

U.S. stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sinking the most since August, after declines in Ford Motor Co. and Amazon.com Inc. and intensifying unrest in Egypt overshadowed an acceleration in American economic growth.

Ford plunged 13 percent as the automaker said profit slid 79 percent. Amazon declined 7.2 percent after saying earnings may miss analysts’ projections. Microsoft Corp. had the biggest drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, retreating 3.9 percent, after a shortfall in Windows revenue raised concerns about future demand. The NYSE Arca Airline Index lost 4.3 percent as oil jumped the most since September 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 1.8 percent, the most since Aug. 11, to 1,276.34 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow declined 166.13 points, or 1.4 percent, to 11,823.70, preventing the index from completing its longest stretch of weekly gains since 1995. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of insurance against losses in stocks, jumped 24 percent after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak imposed a nationwide curfew following a day of protests aimed at undermining his 30-year rule.

“Investors are looking for safety,” said Jack Ablin, who helps manage $55 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago. “There’s a cloud of uncertainty out there. The unrest in Egypt makes the picture look pretty scary,” he said. “In the U.S., Ford and Amazon’s numbers are a big drag today. The stock market has had a nice run-up and stocks look fairly valued.”    moe ...

Media Indonesia Inflasi Januari Nyaris Satu Persen

Gejolak harga pangan di akhir 2010 terutama komoditas beras, cabai, dan gula pasir masih menjadi penyumbang inflasi tertinggi. Akibatnya, pada Januari 2011, inflasi mendekati angka 1% atau total 7% secara tahunan (year on year).

Hal itu dikatakan Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Rusman Heriawan di sela penandatanganan kesepakatan pasokan data ekspor impor dengan Indonesia Eximbank di Jakarta, Jumat (28/1).

"Kalau inflasi Januari tahun lalu kan 0,82%. Januari ini pasti ada inflasi, cuma besarnya berapa, saya berharap di bawah 1 persen. Antara 0,5%-1%. Lebih dekat ke 1% lah," ujarnya.

Ia menegaskan, fluktuasi di kisaran harga tinggi untuk komoditas beras, cabai, dan gula pasir masih menjadi penyumbang utama pada laju inflasi tahun ini. Komoditas beras belum memperlihatkan tren penurunan harga hingga akhir Januari.

"Masih beras, walaupun cabai mulai turun tapi kan celengannya pada minggu 1 dan 2 masih tinggi. Jadi secara bulanan masih ada dorongan dari cabai. Gula pasir juga ada kontribusinya," ujarnya.

Dengan demikian, bila Januari ini inflasi mencapai sekitar 0,9% maka bukanlah hal yang tidak mungkin secara year on year inflasi bulan ini mencapai 7%. Pasalnya, pada Januari tahun lalu besar inflasi mencapai 0,82% sementara sepanjang 2010 mencapai 6,96%.

Business Times CPO futures rise on short-covering

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended higher on short-covering activities ahead of the weekend, dealers said yesterday.

February rose RM15 to RM3,765 per tonne, March increased RM18 to RM3,743, April improved RM15 to RM3,700 and May gained RM16 to RM3,651.

Turnover decreased to 16,934 lots from 25,648 lots on Thursday while open interest increased to 92,488 contracts from 89,880 contracts previously.

On the physical market, February South increased by RM10 to RM3,760 per tonne compared with RM3,750 per tonne on Thursday.

RUBBER

RUBBER prices ended mixed yesterday amid profit-taking activities ahead of the Federal Territory and Chinese New Year holidays next week, a dealer said.

At noon, the Malaysian Rubber Board official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 rose 1 sen to 1,649.5 sen a kg compared with 1,648.5 sen on Thursday while latex-in-bulk eased 1 sen to 1,024.5 sen a kg from 1,025.5 sen previously.

Meanwhile, the unofficial seller closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 dropped 10.5 sen to 1,646.5 sen a kg compared with 1,657 sen on Thursday while latex-in-bulk eased 3.5 sen to 1,023.5 sen a kg from 1,027 sen previously.

TIN

THE tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) continued its winning streak to a fifth consecutive day and ended US$700 (US$1.00 = RM3.05) higher at US$29,200 per tonne, a dealer said.

He said the local tin market was firmer on the back of strong demand for the commodity globally. Meanwhile, the overnight metal price on the London Metal Exchange (LME), surged US$500 to US$28,125 a tonne.

The dealer said demand was strong for the commodity but tight supply continues to push prices higher.

At the opening bell, bids amounted to 150 tonnes while offers stood at 20 tonnes. Turnover on the KLTM was down at 45 tonnes from the 80 tonnes on Thursday with Japanese, European and local traders dominating the bulk of yesterday's trading.

Meanwhile, the premium between the KLTM and LME widened to US$495 per tonne from US$295 per tonne previously.
The local tin market will only be open on Monday and Wednesday next week. — Bernama

Nomura Indonesian Stocks Slump a ‘Buying Opportunity'

Investors should see the Jakarta Composite Index’s recent decline as a “buying opportunity” as Indonesia’s economy will benefit from “strong” commodity prices while “runaway” inflation is unlikely, Nomura Holdings Companies Inc. said.

PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), and PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) are among the stocks that will lead the rebound, given their “solid underlying fundamentals,” analyst Willanto Le said in a report today.

“The valuation of the Indonesian market is still far from demanding,” he wrote.

Reuters Bank Mandiri 2010 net profit jumps 19 pct-govt

PT Bank Mandiri , Indonesia's largest lender, posted 8.6 trillion Indonesian rupiah ($952.7 million) in 2010 net profit, up 19 percent from a year earlier, Mustafa Abubakar, state-owned enterprises minister, said on Friday.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia , the second biggest lender, posted 8.5 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, Mustafa said, up 16 percent.

PT Bank Negara Indonesia , the fourth biggest bank, posted 2 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, he added, down from 2.48 trillion a year earlier. ($1 = 9027 Rupiah).


Bank                                   Net profit 2010           Status
1. Bank Mandiri                    IDR 8.6 trillion            Up
2. Bank Rakyat Indonesia       IDR 8.5 trillion            Up
3. Bank Negara Indonesia      IDR 2 trillion                Down

Credit Suisse Research Weekly Asia US recovery and peaking JPY bodes well for the Nikkei 225

Highlights
􀂃 The macro economic picture in Japan and the US has become more constructive and corporate earnings have proved resilient.
􀂃 The risks of significant JPY strength, which weighed on Japanese equities in 2010, have receded and the shift in foreign investors' sentiment toward Japanese equities has improved the demand and supply situation for Japanese equities.
􀂃 Valuation of Japanese equities remains compelling versus historical average and technical outlook has improved.
􀂃 We upgraded our 12–month Nikkei 225 target to 12,000. Investors should focus Japanese exporters and interest ratesensitive companies.

Top investment ideas
We recommend investors BUY Japanese exporters that benefit from the recovery in the US economy and interest rate-sensitive companies that benefit from the Japanese government's reflationary policy.

Exporters: Toyota (7203 JP, BUY), Honda (7267 JP, BUY), Nidec (6594 JP, BUY), Toshiba (6502 JP, BUY)

Interest rate-sensitive companies: Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP, BUY), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316
JP, BUY), Nomura (8604 JP, BUY)

Europe: BUY ING (INGA NA) A compelling longer-term restructuring story

Improved outlook for Japanese equities in 2011
Japanese equities have lagged the other major stock markets substantially since the Lehman shock. However, the macro economic picture in Japan and the US has become more constructive since Q4 2010 and corporate earnings have proved resilient. The risk of a significant JPY strength, which weighed on Japanese equities in 2010, has receded and the change in foreign investors' sentiment toward Japanese equities has improved the demand and supply situation for these equities. Nevertheless, the valuation of Japanese
equities remains compelling compared to the historical average while technical outlook for the Japanese market has improved. Our investment stance on Japanese equities is now turning more positive for the next 1–6 months.

Jumat, 28 Januari 2011

Credit Suisse Indo: Kalbe Farma - Unaudited FY10 net profit +37% YoY to Rp1.27 tn, below our estimates

● Kalbe Farma released its FY10 unaudited results with net profit soaring 37% YoY to Rp1.27 tn, below our estimates of Rp1.36 tn. Revenue grew 12% YoY to Rp10.2 tn with gross profit rising 14% YoY. Thus, the gross margin improved to 50.6%, from 49.7% in FY09, due to the stronger rupiah. Operating profit increased 15% YoY and the operating margin improved 40 bps to 17.6%.

● Revenue rose 14% QoQ (+13% YoY) in 4Q10, with gross profit increasing 7% QoQ (+8% YoY). The gross margin declined to 49%, from 52% in 3Q10. Operating profit rose 13% QoQ (-1% YoY) with the operating margin relatively flat at 17.3% (4Q09:19.8%). Net profit stood at Rp372 bn (+13% QoQ, +19% YoY).

● At the end of 2010, Kalbe had a net cash position of Rp1.9 tn with Rp25 bn in working capital loans. It also still has 7.69% T-Stock, valued at Rp2.3 tn.

● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on the stock with a target price of Rp3,200, which equates to 19.7x 2011 P/E on 21% earnings growth this year.

The Indonesia Today AKRA Closes Deal with Cargill for Divestment of Sorini Shares


PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) today completed divestment of all its shareholding in PT Sorini Agro Asia Corporindo Tbk (SAAC) by crossing 629,166,945 shares (68.82% of SAAC issued capital) with PT Cargill Foods Indonesia (CFI) which is 99.99% held by Cargill Luxembourg 6 S.a.r.l.
The signing of the CSPA with Cargill Luxembourg 6 S.a.r.l. was announced on 15 December 2010 and was subject to shareholder approval.

The transaction received approval of the shareholders at the Extra ordinary General Meeting of AKRA held on 26 January 2011 - with shareholders representing 87.57% of the total issued shares attending either in person or by proxy AKRA sold the SAAC Shares to Cargill at Rp 3,500 per share, in a cash transaction which raised over Rp 2.2 trillion for the company.

“The completion of SAAC divestment is an important step for AKRA and we are pleased that the sale process was concluded expeditiously and benefits AKRA stakeholders” said Mr. Haryanto Adikoesoemo, President Director of AKRA.

“This divestment is in line with AKRA business focus and strategy and it enables us to further unlock shareholder value” said Mr. Haryanto Adikoesoemo. “The divestment will enable AKRA to reinvest toward energy, petroleum and chemical distribution and logistics infrastructure business which present higher-yield and better growth opportunity.” 

Insider Stories Hexindo 3Q10 net income soars 42.22%

PT Hexindo Adi Perkasa (HEXA), distributor of Hitachi heavy equipment, John Deere construction equipment, and Rotobec today repored a 42.22% jump in net income in thirs quarter of 2010 (3Q10).


As mentioned in the financial statement filed to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) today, Hexindo posted US$30.15 million net income in 3Q10 ended December 30 2010 from IDR21.20 million a year earlier as net revenue surged 56.49%.
Operating income also rose 20.77% to US$38.49 million in 3Q10 from US$29.66 million in 3Q09. However, operating expenses increased 23.86% to US$26.37 million from US$21.29 million.


As a result, Hexindo's operating margin slightly fell to 10.71% from 12.91%. Gross profit increased 27.30% to US$64.86 million from US$50.95 million. Hexindo Perkasa booked US$359.28 million net revenue in 3Q10, a 56.49% rise from US$229.58 million.

Bisnis Indonesia Lonsum Stock Split Rasio 1:5

PT PP London Sumatra Plantations Tbk (Lonsum) mendapatkan persetujuan pemegang sahamnya untuk melakukan pemecahan nilai saham (stock split) dengan rasio 1:5. 

Berdasarkan keterangan beberapa investor yang hadir dalam rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB) pagi ini, rapat itu dihadiri oleh 79,18% dari total pemegang saham yang beredar.

"Yang menyetujui sebesar 99,98% dari yang hadir," ujar salah satu investor yang ditemui di Indofood Tower-Sudirman Plaza, hari ini.

Salah satu investor lain mengatakan stock split akan membuat harga nominal saham perseroan akan terpecah dari Rp500 per lembar menjadi Rp100 per saham.

Perusahaan perkebunan sawit Grup Salim itu, lanjutnya, berencana mengeksekusi stock split tersebut pada 24 Februari, yang merupakan cum date.

"Lalu, book closing-nya pada 27 Februari. Tujuan stock split, kata manajemen, supaya perdagangan sahamnya lebih likuid lagi."

Harga saham perseroan yang memiliki kode saham LSIP itu masih terkoreksi sebesar Rp250 atau sebesar 2,08% ke level Rp11.750 siang ini. Harga itu membentuk kapitalisasi pasar emiten yang dipimpin Benny Tjoeng itu sebesar Rp16,03 triliun.

Ketika didatangi di lokasi RUPSLB untuk diminta konfirmasi, manajemen perusahaan sudah tidak berada di tempat.

Mandiri Sekuritas Jan11 CPI inflation and Dec10 trade preview

The statistics agency is scheduled to announce the Jan11 CPI inflation data on Tuesday (1/2). We expect inflation to soften to 6.67% yoy from 6.96% in Dec10, with on-month reading of 0.57%, below consensus estimate of 0.74%

Our price observation indicates raw food price inflation has started to abate, which may be heavily due to the government open market operation and rice importation. However, the persistently strong increase in raw commodity prices globally since Nov10 may have started to affect non-raw food commodities, thus core inflation may edge higher this month.

Easing inflationary pressures, we think, would encourage the central bank to keep the benchmark rate unchanged in the next board meeting (4/2), while opting to curb inflation with other monetary policy tools such as letting the currency to strengthen. However, the recent rising inflation expectation will manifest in the actual inflation. Thus, we think the central bank will eventually increase the benchmark rate. At this juncture, we maintain our BI rate forecast at 7% for the whole 2011, which the first rate hike will be delivered in 2Q11.

On trade, we expect the increase in commodity prices will continue to support Indonesia’s exports. Total exports and imports may have grown by 24.6% yoy and 38.4% yoy respectively, resulting in a surplus of around US$2.4bn in Dec10.

Nomura Indonesia Flavour: Bank Mandiri, Motorcycle, and Import duty

Anand Pathmakanthan, our banking analyst, reiterates Bank Mandiri as the top banking pick in Indonesia. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ – IDR5,950 –BUY) cleared two distractions this week i.e. completing its rights issue and successfully disposing of its stake in IPO-bound Garuda to recover IDR1.3tn owed by the latter.

Management can now wholly focus on achieving the operational targets encompassed within the group’s 2nd Transformation Plan that runs from 2010-2014, namely to (1) build market share in wholesale transactions, retail payments, high yield loans; (2) to increase ROE to 25% by 2014; and (3) to increase group market capitalisation to IDR225tn (US$25bn), from US$14bn currently.

Recent price weakness on macro inflation concerns is an opportunity to accumulate our recommended core holding for any Indo bank portfolio – target price is IDR6,800 or 2.7x FY11F book value, 15x earnings.


Motorcycle is a new public transport. Data from Jakarta police department has shown that the popularity of motorcycle has risen so fast that it took over public transportation as the #1 mode of transport in Jakarta. Nearly half of Jakarta commuters are using motorcycle. Motorcycle is one of the most efficient modes of transport not only because of its high fuel efficiency, but also because it can sneak away from the traffic jam in Jakarta.  Astra International (ASII IJ – BUY) is the largest producers and distributor of motorcycle in Indonesia with 46.3% market share.

Government has issued the official regulation that free import duty for 57 food related products which were previously charged 5% duty on average. The zero import duty is effective starting this week as part of government efforts to ease rising food price pressure. The abolishment of import duty will help (to some extent) to ease input cost pressure for companies such as Indofood Sukses (INDF IJ), Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ), and Mayora (MYOR IJ) as wheat and sugar are part of the list. Other sector to benefit is plantations sector as fertilizer/fertilizer material is also part of the list.

The 57 products include: wheat, cereal flours other than wheat flour, cornstarch, and rice flours, soy beans, bran and pellets, maize ingredients, bagasse, sugar refining residue, peanut oil residue, sunflower seed, radish seed, coconut or copra, oil palm fruit and kernel, dog food and cat food, chemicals, such as phosphate acid, ammonium acid, sodium acid, sodium bicarbonate, amino alcohol, salt, natural and urea fertilizer, sulfur.

The Indonesia Today Multipolar Posts Rp2.83 Trillion Profit in 2010


PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL), holding company of the country’s largest retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA), posted net profit of Rp2.83 trillion in 2010, mostly contributed by asset sale.
It recorded net earning per share (EPS) of Rp505.52, compared to Rp65.25 a previous year.

The company booked extraordinary gain of Rp5.73 trillion, from selling PT Matahari Department Store Tbk, unit of PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA).

It however said revenue declined 12.4% to Rp9.53 trillion, from Rp10.88 trillion a year earlier while cost of good sold only slightly increased to Rp7.36 trillion. As a result, gross profit dropped 41% to Rp2.17 trillion.

As the company also recorded operating expense of Rp2.15 trillion, it only booked operating profit of Rp15.89 billion, dropped 97% from Rp545 billion in 2009.

By end 2010, Multipolar's assets totaled Rp14.01 trillion while liability amounted Rp5.516 trillion.

The Indonesia Today Bank Mandiri Drops Plan to Issue Subdebt


PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) drops plan to issue subordinated bonds this year as it has sufficient liquidity raised from rights issue and stake divestment in national flag carrier PT Garuda Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia reported this morning.
Zulkifli Zaini, BMRI's president director, said the subdebt is postponed to be issued this year as the bank's current liquidity reaches Rp30 trillion. BMRI targets lending to grow by 20-22% this year.

He said the additional funds from rights issue will raise BMRI's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) to 15.5-16%.

BMRI has set the rights exercise price at Rp5,000 per share to raise approximately Rp11.3 trillion in net proceeds (after deducting commissions and expenses).

The bank will also raise Rp1.4 trillion from divesting 10.61% shares of Garuda through IPO.

Insider Stories MNC Sky Vision aims to hold IPO

PT MNC Sky Vision, subsidiary of PT Global Mediacom Tbk owned by Harry Tanoesudibyo, plans to hold initial public offering (IPO) plan this year.


In its official statement to Indonesian Stock Indonesia (IDX) yesterday, the company that engaged in pay television industry will raise public fund to support its expansion plan.
MNC’s pay television networks that mostly known as Indovision and Top TV has successfully dominated the market more than 78% in Indonesia.


At the end of 2010, the subscribers of Indovision and Top TV has reached more than 800.000 subscribers and projected to continue increasing in line with the low penetration of networked TVs within the country up to now.
The company believes its listing in the IDX can be conducted this year, although it hasn’t yet appointed the underwriter for the IPO plan.


If the IPO plan is realized then the MNC business groups that will be traded in the market are PT Bhakti Investama Tbk, PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk and PT Global Mediacom Tbk.

CLSA Indo : cement sector, valuations re-set

With recent correction in cement stocks, Nick Cashmore is back with his cement reports.

Reiterating BUY call on Indocement (INTP IJ) and Holcim (SMCB I).

Maintain UPF for SMGR. Some earnings adjustments are made due to changes in volume and cost assumptions.

Interestingly, recent correction in the cement sector is that valuation (PER-wise) for all three big cement companies have been re-set to about the same multiple. We are looking at PER 2011 of 13-14x.

At this juncture, Nick Cashmore still prefers Indocement (INTP IJ) and Holcim (SMCB IJ) over Semen Gresik (SMGR IJ). INTP and SMCB are running at 70% capacity utilization and SMGR is almost at full capacity (94% utilization). SMGR will only add capacity in 1Q12. On the pound for pound basis, INTP and SMCB are cheaper than SMGR.

NISP Sekuritas Daily 28 Jan 2011 (KLBF, ANTM, BMTR, OKAS)

Results in line with expectation (KLBF, Rp2,900, Hold)
·          Kalbe Farma booked revenue of Rp10.20tn in 2010, or up by 12.2% YoY from Rp9.09tn in 2009. Net income was Rp1.27tn, or jump by 37.1% YoY from Rp929.0bn. The results are inline with both ours and consensus’ expectation.
·          Operating profit grew at approximately the same rate as revenue growth, increasing about 14.6% YoY to Rp1.80tn from Rp1.57tn. A lower tax rate from 28% to 25% and the increased stake in Enseval Putera Megatrading and PT Saka Farma Laboratories that reduced minority interest was the main catalyst for stronger bottom line growth.
·          On a quarterly basis, revenue was still growing strong by 14.1% in 4Q10, where the distribution division grew by 52.3% QoQ to Rp1.24tn.
·          The company believes that growth in pharmaceutical sales can be continued in 2011. Its new production facility in Cikarang is currently waiting for BPOM certification and will be dedicated for generic drugs’ tablet production line. While for capex this year it allocates Rp650bn to support its 12%-15% revenue target and 15%-18% net income target.
·          We are satisfied with the results and the company’s plan for 2011 to control marketing efficiencies and introduce new products is in line with our view for the company. KLBF is trading at 2011F PER of 17.0x and EV/EBITDA of 9.7x.



Aneka Tambang takes over coal mine (ANTM, Rp2,300, Buy)
·          Aneka Tambang has taken over the Sarolangun coal mine in Jambi. The mine has a production capacity of 200 th tons with 8.25mn tons of coal reserves. Acquisition value is Rp92.5bn.

·          This year the company plans to increase capacity to 500 th  tons. Calorific value is 5,300-5,500 kcal/kg.
·          With the coal mine, Antam can obtain supply for its steam power plant in its ferronickel facility.
·          The company is also studying the possibility of acquiring a gold mine with estimated cost of U$15mn-U$20mn.
·          ANTM is trading at 2011F PER of 10.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.2x.


Global Mediacom to list subsidiary this year (BMTR, Rp720)
·          Global Mediacom is preparing for the IPO of its subsidiary, MNC Sky Vision which controls Indovision the cable channel provider. Global Mediacom currently controls 75.5% of Sky Vision shares.
·          Sky Vision’s market share is 78% the total market. Global Mediacom is currently looking for an underwriter.
·          The IPO is planned to be conducted this 1H11.


Ancora to conduct rights issue (OKAS, Rp310)
·          Ancora Indonesia Resources will soon conduct a rights issue to raise US$15mn. As much as US$12mn will be used to finance acquisition of 58% stake in Raja Kutai Baru Makmur, a coal company in Kalimantan Timur and the remaining US$3mn will be used for capex.
·          The target company produces low range coal and has mining rights of over 8,500 ha. Volume sales last year reached 450 th tons.  Production is targeted to increase to 1.2mn tons this year.
·          Ancora is allocating capex budget US$20mn this year, which will be used mainly to finance construction of an ammonium nitrate plant.

Indopremier Securities APLN Trillions Backlog from Superblocks

Total revenue to double in FY10, increasing recurring income shall lessen earnings volatility
APLN booked around Rp. 5 trillion of marketing sales by the end of the year leading to an estimated Rp. 5.26 trillion of backlog according to our calculation by the end of FY10, with recognizable portion of Rp. 1.56 trillion and a 106.5% increase of total revenue from FY09. Our forecast also shows strong revenue growth reaching 3.1 trillion by the end of FY12. Going forward, we also anticipate lessen earnings volatility seeing a rapid increasing portion of recurring income from 11.9% by the end of FY10 to 23.4% by the end of FY11.

Ongoing projects on schedule, new projects rolled out 
New acquisition of land bank in Jln. Pos Pengumben, Jakarta Barat, was made on December 21, 2010 and the ensuing launching of Green Permata project was scheduled on the upcoming January 28, 2011. Unlike previous project, Green Permata upholds a landed residential complex with 475 units houses offered in Rp 1.2 to 2.6 billion range and a high rise 15-level apartment aimed at middle low segment. We estimate an additional NAV of Rp. 227.68 billion from both Green Lake Sunter (99.9% ownership) and Green Permata (70% ownership) projects, bringing up the total NAV of all projects to Rp. 10.72 trillion. In addition, the company is in the process of several land bank acquisitions within Jakarta CBD proximity and Greater Jakarta this year.

High turnover reduces risk, improve margin
With superior brand name, APLN is able to target a niche asset light strategy by acquiring and developing land bank immediately as feasible. With no cash tied up in land bank, it becomes more flexible to face interest rate risk or changing market trend. The cash conversion cycle of the company is 698 days compared to 1,751 days on average and ROIC for FY11 shall reach 14.63%.

Reiterate Buy with 28% upside potential
Assuming 4-6.5% rental price appreciation, 10-15% sales price adjustment, and two to four years of marketing periods, we derive a net NAV of 9.87 trillion. Since the company does not have any land bank, we do not see a necessity to apply illiquidity discount in NAV valuation. New target price is Rp. 480/share, representing estimated TTM P/E of 23.69x and forward P/E of 11.27x.

MarketWatch Moody's backs U.S. rating, says risks rising

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service said late Thursday that it continues to rate the U.S. government's bonds at Aaa with a stable outlook. However, it added that recent trends and the outlook for government financial metrics "indicate that the level of risk, while still small, is rising and likely to continue to rise in the next several years." The agency added that, although it's not contemplating action on the U.S. rating at this time, the time frame for possible future actions "appears to be shortening" and the probability of assigning a negative outlook in the coming two years is rising. The agency made the comments after rival Standard & Poor's downgraded Japan's long-term sovereign-credit rating AA minus from AA but reaffirmed the country's short term rating. The dollar index traded at 77.72, compared with 77.707 in late North American trading. 

Reuters Floods may cut 50% of Queensland Q1 coal output-report

Coal production in Australia's flood-hit Queensland state could drop by between 25 percent and 50 percent this quarter, as the sector starts its recovery, an industry study said on Thursday.

Also as a result of flood damage to mines and transport infrastructure, the Queensland government will miss out on coal royalties of up to A$2.9 million a day for the rest of the financial year, which ends June 30, according to the study by the Queensland Resources Council
"It's not a pretty outlook for the industry or Queensland," the report said.
The production loss estimate was measured against a benchmark of 51 million tonnes of quarterly production.  The actual loss would be determined by how quickly Queensland's coal miners can reactivate operations, according to the report.  "The emptying of coal pits full of rainwater and the restoration of rail and road transport are central to ensuring losses are minimised," the report said.  More than half the world's metallurgical coal exports come from Australia, most of it destined for steelmakers in Asia.  

Roughly 90 percent of that coal comes from Queensland, mostly the Bowen Basin. Although Queensland produces mostly coking coal, it also produces some thermal coal used for power generation. Australia is the world's second largest exporter of thermal coal behind Indonesia.
By some estimates, Australia's coal industry is making a faster-than-expected recovery from flooding over the last two months, though some producers are warning that output this quarter will suffer.    

UBS analyst Tom Price forecasts Queensland will lose about 10 million tonnes of coking coal for the full year in 2011 due to flooding that has already occurred.
Patersons Securities analyst Andrew Harrington said it will be mid-2011 before the sector is back on its feet.  "The mines, the rails, the ports, the ships, and the customers all have to re-align themselves back to the previous logistics pattern," he said. 

Macarthur Coal , one of the first coal miners to declare force majeure as the heavy rains started to fall across the  Bowen Basin in December, said the disruptions were likely to restrict output through the current quarter.     Overall for the sector, production has resumed at more than 80 percent of the state's coal mines, according to Australia's resources minister, Martin Ferguson.     A week ago, the Queensland Resources Council said only 15 percent of the state's mines were operating at peak levels, while 60 percent were running under restrictions.
Parts of central and southern Queensland, where the main coal fields exist, received several hundred millimetres of rainfall during December, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, with more heavy rains occurring in the first weeks of January.  The annual wet season, which meteorologists say has been exaggerated by a La Nina event, normally runs until April, leaving open the chance for more rain. 

Xinhua China coking coal price to see leaps despite stable power coal price

China domestic coal price ha s been capped stable while coking coal price kept surging following th e international coking coal price hike. Experts predict that China's c oking coal price is likely to see the second uptrend of this year in March or April.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ch ina's top economic planner, only capped the price for contracted coal for 2011, but the pricing of spot coal, coking coal, and coke are full y market-oriented.
Since the beginning of this year, China's coke producers like Shanxi Xishan Coal and Electricity Power Co., Ltd (000983.SZ) and Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co., Ltd (600395.SH) have raised coke p rice at least by 100 yuan/tonne.
It is learned that the flood in Australia has severely bl ocked coking coal supply to global market. Spot coke price of Australi a has exceeded 300 US dollars/tonnes, and is expected to reach 400 US dollars/tonne, hitting a new high since 2008.
On the coming of spring, China's domestic steel productio n will return to full operation, plus the peak demand for steel, cokin g coal demand would accordingly witness rapid growth at that time.
China's domestic steel makers are looking for alternative supply of coking coke. They have shown that they would increase purch ase of coking coal in domestic market if coking coal imports could not be guaranteed. In this sense, China's coking coal price is likely to hike again within a range of 100-150 yuan/tonne.

Besides, China International Capital Corp. noted that tim e is needed for Australia, the major coal expertor in the world, to re sume normal coal production and transportation. As the Oceanic country will enter rainy season soon, which usually an off season of coal pro duction, the international coking coal price would go even higher, res ulting in more hikes of China's domestic coking coal price.

Deutsche Bank Strategy Alert : Key take away from meeting with BI

BI has explicitly stated that it will address the rising inflation. Whilst confident that CPI won't exceed 7%, it aims to bring it towards the 5% +/- 1% target range using a mix of 4 policy options;

1). BI explicitly mentioned a RATE HIKE, however the magnitude/timing is still being evaluated. It also noted that the economic dynamics are such that the Taylor rule on the right interest rates per inflation is outdated; reading between the lines, we believe the rate hike won't be too drastic.

Indeed many have often cited the negative real rates, but in fact, no-one gets to borrow at policy rate, ave. lending rates of around 12% are well above inflation.

2). Allow further CURRENCY APPRECIATION. As 60% of Indo's exports are commodity products, the impact on competition is limited. Besides, margins for the main commodity exporters are hefty enough to weather some appreciation.

3). RR MEASURE: This has recently been instituted at 8% for Rp deposits, and for FX in March. Liquidity supply in the system is ample even considering the unevenness across different banks. In fact, BI still expects FY11 system loan growth of 24%.

4). Manage CAPITAL FLOW closely. It had scraped 1mth SBI, and instituted 1mth holding period for 3mth and 6mth paper. This will be under constant review going forward.

On the fuel subsidy removal; BI's estimates of impact to CPI: 1st phase (Apr-11) +0.15% (slightly higher than our est. of 0.13%) - 2nd phase (Jul-11) +0.32%, in line with our est.

On the whole, the message is a bit more reassuring. Although still uncertain, we think there is more than a fair chance of BI hiking by 25bps on 4 Feb. This may help arrest the market downside, but for the market to really move further, we need to see inflation coming off.

It might peak in 2Q11 and come off in 2H11; as 3/4 of FY10 inflation was in 2H10.

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Deutsche Bank Indonesia strategy : This too shall pass

Near-term distraction 
Concerns over inflation and the perception that Bank Indonesia is behind the curve have led to a significant 25-30% pullback in big caps. Regional trade, moving away from inflation to disinflation countries and emerging to developed markets, may have also exacerbated the market sentiment. As such, nuances on the nature of inflation, i.e. weather-related with no scenario of runaway inflation, gets washed out. So, unless inflation peaks or BI acts to quell such concerns, the negative sentiment may linger, contrary to fundamentals.

Fundamentals remain intact; reiterating our 4,500 12-month index target
Importantly, earnings impact from this inflation is limited, if any. Not only are the cost pressures relatively contained, there are significant drivers to cushion earnings, e.g. 3-4% job growth from the surge in investments and 10-15% wage increases. Indeed the structural growth outlook, as the economy definitively breaks away from its lost decade, far outweighs the near-term headwinds.

Relatively stable rupiah amid outflow 
Recent selldowns have taken out some US$700m from foreign holdings in equity, or almost 20% of the entire inflow last year. In fixed income related, outflow of c.US$1.2bn amounted to c.10% of the entire FY10 inflow amount. However, the rupiah has held up relatively well, thanks to the hefty buildup in FX reserves last year, which reached US$96.2bn, up US$30bn and much more than the collective inflow in bonds and equity of US$16bn.

Reasons why we remain bullish on Indonesia
Inflation unlikely to spiral out of control – no material earnings risk
Rate hike unlikely to derail growth – no credit crunch expected
Real economy is definitively picking up
Stable/strong rupiah outlook
Political noises may rise but not boil over
Commodity up-cycle sustains
Higher oil price unlikely to derail macro stability
Post 25-30% pullback, valuations are more compelling

As such we believe the market weakness would be short-lived and as inflation peaks, market will start to focus on its strong fundamental. Inflation is front-loaded, as ¾ of FY10 inflation was in 2H10; we expect easing in 2H11. Our stock pick criteria; 1) companies with exposure to credit, and its food chain, 2) pricing power amidst rising purchasing power and 3) high barrier to entry on rising investments. Refer to adjacent
table for our top picks

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Reuters Indonesia cbank says could intervene in forex mkt to stem inflation

Jan 27 (Reuters) - Indonesia central bank deputy governor Hartadi A. Sarwono said on Wednesday the bank could intervene in the foreign exchange market to stem inflation.
Inflation reached a 20-month high of 6.96 percent in December, above the central bank's end-2010 range of 4-6 percent, triggering a sell-off in Indonesian assets. 

Reuters Indonesia fin ministry sees core 2011 inflation at 4-5 pct

Jan 27 (Reuters) - Indonesia's finance ministry said on Thursday it sees core 2011 inflation at 4-5 percent, and headline inflation at 6.1-6.6 percent.
This was higher than a government budget target of 5.3 percent for headline inflation and above the central bank's end-year target of 4-6 percent.
A deputy governor at the central bank told Reuters last month that Bank Indonesia would not hesistate to tighten policy if core inflation neared 5 percent, though investors have sold off Indonesian assets this month on worries the central bank may be behind the curve in tackling growing price pressures. 

Bloomberg Indonesia Stocks: Bank Permata, Media Nusantara Citra, Timah

Shares of the following companies had unusual moves in Indonesian trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and prices are as of the 4 p.m. local-time close in Jakarta.
The Jakarta Composite index climbed 12.91 points, or 0.4 percent, to 3,514.62, advancing for a third straight day.
PT Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), which is partly owned by Indonesia’s biggest auto retailer, PT Astra International, rose 2.5 percent to 1,670 rupiah. Permata sold this month a 31 percent stake in the Indonesian affiliate of Nipponkoa Insurance Co. for 67.4 billion rupiah ($7.5 million) to focus on its banking business, the lender said.
PT Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ), a television broadcasting company, advanced 2.2 percent to 920 rupiah. Media Nusantara’s 2010 net income rose 94 percent from a year earlier to 748 billion rupiah bolstered by growth in ad revenue, it said.
PT Timah (TINS IJ), Indonesia’s biggest tin producer, jumped 4.6 percent to 2,825 rupiah, the steepest increase since Oct. 13. Tin for three-month delivery rose to a record, gaining 1.5 percent to $28,625 a metric ton in London yesterday. The contract traded at $28,720 a ton today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta

The Indonesia Today Aneka Tambang Acquires Sarolangun Coal

PT Indonesia Coal Resources, a subsidiary of state miner PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM) Tbk, has acquired coal mine concession in Sarolangun, Jambi province for Rp92.5 billion.

"The acquisition is an initial step for Indonesia Coal Resources to develop its coal business," ANTM said in a press release today.

The Sarolangun coal asset has started production in June 2010 with output of 200,000 tons for 2010. ANTM expects ICR to boost coal production to 500,000 tons this year.

The asset has reserves of 8.25 million tons at calorific value of 5,300-5,500 Kcal/Kg. The company currently sells the coal to domestic customers and exports to India.

ANTM also expects the acquisition will support its plan to build a coal-fired power plant, which will provide electricity to its ferronickel facilities.

Insider Stories - Garuda stocks overwhelm market

When PT Krakatau Steel Tbk entered the primary market, the steel market stocks immediately 'disappeared, but now the market is flooded with stocks of PT Garuda Indonesia Tbk. 
 
M. Reza, Head of Research at PT Erdhika Sekuritas, said that the IPO stocks of Garuda floods the market, since the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) decided to allocate 57% subscription shares in fixed allotment.
 
“Of the total subscription of Garuda, Erdhika gets 57% allotment. The market will be flooded with Garuda stocks. After listing, will Garuda fly high? Will it last? Since the investors sell in the first day,” he said.
In the grey market, the premium 10% offered in the initial public offering (IPO) of Garuda at Rp750 has decreased to 3%.
 
Reza thought that bigger allocation for local investors is a strategy of investment managers and the government, considering that foreign investors are not too attracted to the shares of Garuda in IPO. “It may be a strategy, so the portion for local investors is bigger,” he said. 
 
Too expensive 
According to him, the initial price of Garuda at IDR750 is considered too expensive. The price reflects the estimated price to earning ratio (P/E) 2010 at 60 times. “Airlines, like British Airways has P/E 2010 around 27 times and the average P/E of airline industry is not more than 17 folds,” he said.
Sanusi, Secretary General of Indonesian Securities Investors Community (MISSI), responds the big allocation in Garuda’s IPO positively.
 
“In IPO of SOE, local retail investors are supposed to get the same allocation with foreign investors. Don’t let local retail investors only viewers,” he said.
When Krakatau Steel held IPO, Sanusi said he subscribed for 1 million shares but he got allocation of 1 lot or 10 lot.
 
According to him, Garuda Indonesia business is quite prospective, provided it is well managed. “Whether it may gain or lose after listing, it doesn’t matter. If it loses, investor can cut loss. The most important is that local investors become priority,” he said.
 
The government reduced the number of Garuda shares to be launched in the IPO from 36.5% or 9.36 billion shares to 6.27 billion shares,covering 4.4 billion new shares and 1.9 billion shares belonging to PT Bank Mandiri Tbk.
 
Garuda will generate Rp3.3 trillion and Bank Mandiri will gain Rp1.4 trillion. The subscription of Garuda shares reached 1.3 times for the price of Rp750. 

Bloomberg U.S. Stocks Advance on Earnings Reports, Home-Sale Data; Neflix Increases

U.S. stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gaining a fifth day, as home sales and Qualcomm Inc.’s forecast beat projections, offsetting Japan’s credit downgrade and higher-than-estimated jobless claims.
Qualcomm rallied 5.9 percent as the biggest maker of mobile-phone chips benefited from more sales of devices that browse the Internet. An index of car companies in the S&P 500 advanced 2 percent after online researcher Edmunds.com forecast a 17.3 percent jump in the industry’s new sales in January. Netflix Inc. surged 15 percent as profit topped projections. Microsoft Corp. increased 0.3 percent after its quarterly results were released before exchanges closed.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,299.54 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index has gained 1.5 percent over its five-day advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4.39 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 11,989.83.    more ...

Business Times Palm futures end slightly higher

CPO FUTURES

CRUDE palm oil futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed slightly higher yesterday, tracking the uptrend in soyaoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, dealers said.

February rose RM2 to RM3,750 a tonne, March increased RM5 to RM3,725, April improved RM15 to RM3,685 and May gained RM26 to RM3,635.

Turnover improved to 25,648 lots, from 21,679 lots on Wednesday, while open interest increased to 89,880 contracts from 87,641 previously.

On the physical market, February South remained unchanged at RM3,750 a tonne.

RUBBER

RUBBER prices ended mixed yesterday as market players continued to be sidelined ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays next week, dealers said.

At noon, the Malaysian Rubber Board’s official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 eased 2 sen to 1,648.5 sen a kg from 1,650.5 sen on Wednesday while latex-in-bulk eased 3.5 sen to 1,025.5 sen from 1,029 sen previously.

The unofficial seller closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 rose 14.5 sen to 1,657 sen compared to 1,642.5 sen on Wednesday while latex-in-bulk rose 3.5 sen to 1,027 sen a kg from 1,023.5 sen a kg previously.

TIN

THE Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) continued its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive day to close US$501 (US$1.00 = RM3.05) higher at US$28,500 per tonne yesterday, a dealer said.

He said the local tin market was tracking the firmer metal on the London Metal Exchange (LME overnight, which surged US$430 to US$28,625 a tonne.

Although strong buying was noted for the commodity internationally, local sellers are still reluctant to off load stocks in anticipation of even higher prices.

At the opening bell, bids amounted to 150 tonnes while offers stood at 40 tonnes.

Turnover on the KLTM was up at 80 tonnes from the 60 tonnes on Wednesday, Japanese, European and local traders accounting for the bulk of yesterday's turnover.

Meanwhile, the premium between the KLTM and LME widened to US$295 per tonne from US$200 a tonne previously. - Bernama

Bloomberg Oil Falls to Eight-Week Low in N.Y. After Jobless Claims Rise

Crude oil fell to an eight-week low in New York, and slid to a record discount versus London’s Brent, as a bigger-than-forecast gain in U.S. jobless claims bolstered concern that the economy will be slow to recover.
Futures dropped 1.9 percent after Labor Department figures showed applications for jobless benefits rose 51,000 to 454,000 last week. Orders for U.S. durable goods decreased in December.
“The market has just collapsed,” said Stephen Schork, president of Schork Group Inc., a consulting company in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “The economic numbers today were horrendous. We’ve had one bearish headline after another since last week.”
Crude oil for March delivery tumbled $1.69 to $85.64 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement price since Nov. 30. Futures are up 16 percent from a year ago.
Brent crude oil for March settlement fell 52 cents, or 0.5 percent, to end the session at $97.39 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Brent’s premium over Nymex-traded West Texas Intermediate widened to a record $11.75 a barrel. Investors are buying Brent contracts as a buildup of supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil, skews the U.S. grade’s reliability as an indicator of demand.    more ...

Credit Suisse Bank Mandiri - Rights issue, Garuda IPO to boost net income

 BMRI announced a Rp5,000/share exercise price for its one new for nine old right issues. Post the rights issue, BMRI’s free float will rise to 40%, allowing BMRI to benefit from a 5% tax rate cut.

 BMRI will also sell its 1.9 bn shares of Garuda Indonesia (not listed) in the airline’s upcoming IPO. We estimate that the sale will generate proceeds of Rp1.4 tn.

 Net net, we increase our FY11E-12E earning estimates for BMRI by 13.1-9.7% on: 1) a lower tax rate from increasing the free float to 40% on the back of upcoming rights issue, 2) earnings
generated from the proceeds of the rights issue, assumed to be re-invested in SBI, and 3) proceeds from Garuda’s IPO.

 We maintain BMRI as our top pick for Indonesia’s bank sector on robust fundamentals (a low LDR and high CASA) and undemanding valuations. Adjusting for the benefits from the rights
issue and Garuda divestment, we believe that BMRI is trading at the lowest 2011E P/E of all Indonesian banks under our coverage. Maintain an OUTPERFORM and a target price of Rp8,400/share.

Kamis, 27 Januari 2011

AFP Standard and Poor's had lowered Japan's long term sovereign credit ratings

TOKYO, Jan 27, 2011 (AFP)
Standard and Poor's on Thursday said it had lowered Japan's long term sovereign credit ratings to "AA-" from AA, citing the impact of high deficits on the country's fiscal flexibility in coming years.

"The downgrade reflects our appraisal that Japan's government debt ratios -- already among the highest for rated sovereigns -- will continue to rise further than we envisaged before the global economic recession hit the country and will peak only in the mid-2020s," the ratings agency said.

Bloomberg Yen Plunges Against Dollar, Euro After S&P Downgrades Japan Credit Rating


The yen declined against the dollar and the euro after Standard & Poor’s lowered Japan’s credit rating by one step to AA-.
The yen weakened 1 percent to 82.96 per dollar as of 7:58 a.m. in London, and 0.5 percent to 113.23 per euro.
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Brown in London 

The Indonesia Today PTPP Targets 66% Profit Growth This Year


State-contractor PT Pembangunan Perumahan Tbk (PTPP) targets to book net profit of Rp335 billion this year, a 66% increase compared to Rp201 billion in 2010.
Musyanif, PTPP's president director, said in a press statement issued today that the company also targets revenue to reach Rp8.4 trillion, mainly supported by carry-over contracts worth Rp6 trillion and new contracts. Last year, the company booked revenue of Rp4.4 trillion

The reguler construction projects contribute around 75% of total contracts while EPC projects contribute the balance.

"We are optimistic to double new contracts this year as we have some big projects carried over from last year," Musyanif said, adding the company targets to book orders worth Rp22 trillion this year, consisting of new contracts worth Rp16 trillion and carry over contracts worth Rp6 trillion.

The government had set in the state budget for construction and infrastructure amounting 128 trillion and offers opportunity in public private partnership (PPP) valuing of Rp417 trillion.