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Jumat, 28 Januari 2011

Nomura Indonesia Flavour: Bank Mandiri, Motorcycle, and Import duty

Anand Pathmakanthan, our banking analyst, reiterates Bank Mandiri as the top banking pick in Indonesia. Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ – IDR5,950 –BUY) cleared two distractions this week i.e. completing its rights issue and successfully disposing of its stake in IPO-bound Garuda to recover IDR1.3tn owed by the latter.

Management can now wholly focus on achieving the operational targets encompassed within the group’s 2nd Transformation Plan that runs from 2010-2014, namely to (1) build market share in wholesale transactions, retail payments, high yield loans; (2) to increase ROE to 25% by 2014; and (3) to increase group market capitalisation to IDR225tn (US$25bn), from US$14bn currently.

Recent price weakness on macro inflation concerns is an opportunity to accumulate our recommended core holding for any Indo bank portfolio – target price is IDR6,800 or 2.7x FY11F book value, 15x earnings.


Motorcycle is a new public transport. Data from Jakarta police department has shown that the popularity of motorcycle has risen so fast that it took over public transportation as the #1 mode of transport in Jakarta. Nearly half of Jakarta commuters are using motorcycle. Motorcycle is one of the most efficient modes of transport not only because of its high fuel efficiency, but also because it can sneak away from the traffic jam in Jakarta.  Astra International (ASII IJ – BUY) is the largest producers and distributor of motorcycle in Indonesia with 46.3% market share.

Government has issued the official regulation that free import duty for 57 food related products which were previously charged 5% duty on average. The zero import duty is effective starting this week as part of government efforts to ease rising food price pressure. The abolishment of import duty will help (to some extent) to ease input cost pressure for companies such as Indofood Sukses (INDF IJ), Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ), and Mayora (MYOR IJ) as wheat and sugar are part of the list. Other sector to benefit is plantations sector as fertilizer/fertilizer material is also part of the list.

The 57 products include: wheat, cereal flours other than wheat flour, cornstarch, and rice flours, soy beans, bran and pellets, maize ingredients, bagasse, sugar refining residue, peanut oil residue, sunflower seed, radish seed, coconut or copra, oil palm fruit and kernel, dog food and cat food, chemicals, such as phosphate acid, ammonium acid, sodium acid, sodium bicarbonate, amino alcohol, salt, natural and urea fertilizer, sulfur.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.27

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