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Selasa, 25 Januari 2011

JPM Indo: United Tractors: Markets unnerved by December Volumes: a mistake & an opportunity

·         * Sell off On December Volumes a mistake, should recoup losses: We see UNTR’s sell-off on weak December Komatsu volumes (-25% m/m) as a mistake, prompted by a nervous market. Komatsu sales have fallen m/m in December in each of the last 8 years, only to rebound in January, the magnitude of the bounce being proportionate to the December fall. We think investors should use the opportunity to buy. We anticipate Jan. volumes to be up 20-30% m/m, helping UNTR regain lost ground.
·         * Strong Coal price and a mildly weakening Rupiah - the best combination: UNTR is fundamentally geared to the coal cycle, and profits expand when the Rupiah depreciates. The current environment of a mildly weakening currency and strong coal prices is a favourable combination for UNTR. The stock has tended to outperform the JCI in previous periods of currency weakness, and margins could offset some of the risk of lower demand. Every 100 Rp decline in the average Rp/$ rate over the year boosts EPS by 2.9%.
·         * Stock has derated sharply – favourable risk reward: UNTR has been derated from 18x consensus 12M FWD PE at the beginning of December, to just above 14x JPM 12M forward PE. A 13x forward multiple has proven to be a reliable valuation support since 2006 (with the exception of crisis period Sept 08-May 09), and we see downside support combining with 25% potential upside to our PT (which envisages the stock trading at current multiples 12 months from now) as an attractive risk-reward for longer term investors.
·         * 25% potential upside to our Rp 25,000 PT, realigning of expectations is the near term risk: We tweak our PT to 25,000, rolling our horizon out to Dec 2011. We see a realignment of street earnings expectations as the main near term risk (Our FY11E Komatsu sales & FY10/11E EPS are 3-7.5% below consensus), which could provide buying opportunities.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.03

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