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Selasa, 25 Januari 2011

NISP Sekuritas Daily 25 Jan 2011 (BMRI, SMGR, BORN, MEDC)

Bank Mandiri right issue price announcement delayed to today (BMRI, Rp5,500)
·          The Ministry of SOE has decided to delay the decision for Bank Mandiri’s right issue price to today as it  is still reviewing market conditions today.
·          If the price improves today, it could be used as the reference for the right issue price. However if it still continues to decline, the monthly average will be used as the reference.
·          BMRI is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 11.1x and PBV of 2.3x.

Semen Gresik eyes 10%-15% YoY growth (SMGR, Rp7,650)
·          Semen Gresik is targeting net income this year to rise by 10-%15% YoY to Rp4tn from last year’s projection of Rp3.46tn-3.63tn with revenue increasing by 10% YoY to Rp15.4tn.The company’s various efficiencies managed to push up net income by 5%-10% YoY, although revenue was relatively flat.
·          By the end of this year, the company targets the completion of the Tuban and Tonasa to add another 5 mns to existing capacity.
·          As much as Rp5tn is allocated for capex this year, where Rp4tn will be used for expansion and Rp1tn for maintenance. 60%-70% of the budget will be taken out from internal cash, while the remaining balance will be sourced externally from bank loans. The company has decided to delay its global bonds issue to raise between US$200mn-US$300mn. Instead it is exploring possibility of export credit and medium term notes financing.
·          SMGR is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 10.9x and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x.

Borneo Lumbung secures 2mn ton contract (BORN, Rp1,620)
·          Borneo Lumbung shares that it has already won 2mn tons contract from its sales volume target of 3.2mn tons. The buyers are Chinese companies, each purchasing 1mn ton for a duration of 1 year. The company did not share the price but stated it followed market price.
·          Management shared that its ASP this year could reach US$195 per ton or 5.4% YoY higher from US$185 per ton in 2010.
·          Production volume is targeted to reach 3.5mn tons this year from the company’s total capacity of 5mn tons. In 2010, the company had produced 1.95mn tons.
·          BORN is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 14.4x and EV/EBITDA of 9.3x.

Medco reduces stake in Donggi-Senoro LNG (MEDC, Rp3,075)
·          Medco Energi has sold its stake in Donggi-Senoro LNG, reducing its stake to 11.1% from previously 20%. In addition the Sulawesi LNG Development Limited has increased its stake from 51% to 59.9%. The latter company is a joint company owned by Mitsubishi (75%) and now also by Korea Gas Corporation (25%).
·          Medco management stated that this divestment is inline with the company’s strategy.
·          The LNG project is estimated to cost US$2.8bn including financing costs, infrastructure, overhead and land acquisition costs.
·          The DS LNG consortium has already signed sale and purchase agreement with Chubu Electric Power Co and Kyushu Electric Power Co  and is now negotiating with Korea Gas Corporation to supply 700,000 tons per year.
·          MEDC is trading at 2011F consensus PER of 14.1x and EV/EBITDA of 5.5x. 
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.01

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