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Jumat, 28 Januari 2011

Mandiri Sekuritas Jan11 CPI inflation and Dec10 trade preview

The statistics agency is scheduled to announce the Jan11 CPI inflation data on Tuesday (1/2). We expect inflation to soften to 6.67% yoy from 6.96% in Dec10, with on-month reading of 0.57%, below consensus estimate of 0.74%

Our price observation indicates raw food price inflation has started to abate, which may be heavily due to the government open market operation and rice importation. However, the persistently strong increase in raw commodity prices globally since Nov10 may have started to affect non-raw food commodities, thus core inflation may edge higher this month.

Easing inflationary pressures, we think, would encourage the central bank to keep the benchmark rate unchanged in the next board meeting (4/2), while opting to curb inflation with other monetary policy tools such as letting the currency to strengthen. However, the recent rising inflation expectation will manifest in the actual inflation. Thus, we think the central bank will eventually increase the benchmark rate. At this juncture, we maintain our BI rate forecast at 7% for the whole 2011, which the first rate hike will be delivered in 2Q11.

On trade, we expect the increase in commodity prices will continue to support Indonesia’s exports. Total exports and imports may have grown by 24.6% yoy and 38.4% yoy respectively, resulting in a surplus of around US$2.4bn in Dec10.

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