Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 16 September 2011

Sektor Perbankan : Bank Mandiri Tbk (TP 9.173) - Bang Juntri (Pengamat Pasar Modal)


 Sektor perbankan masih memberikan kinerja yang cemerlang sepanjang tahun 2011 ini. Laju pertumbuhan kredit masih sangat baik dengan rata-rata industry tumbuh sekitar 25% YoY. Pertumbuhan kredit mikro dan consumer tetap moderat dan NPL tetap terjaga rendah. Sektor perbankan masih memberikan ROE yang cukup tinggi.

 Sektor Perbankan memiliki PBV sebesar 3.0x BV dan PER sebesar 16.31x.


















 Ekspansi Kredit menyebabkan Net Profit pada 1H’11 naik 57% YoY. Kenaikan net profit ini diatas konsensus analis atau sudah mencapai 51% dari FY’11.

 Net Interest Margin naik ke 5.4% dari 5.2% YoY sedangkan fee base income naik 74% YoY. NPL down to 2.4%.

 Dengan ekspansi kredit yang dilakukan kami percaya Net Profit BMRI akan tumbuh 35% YoY.

 Book Value BMRI memiliki Rata-Rata Pertumbuhan 3 Bulanan sebesar 6.02%

 Dalam kurun waktu 3 tahun terakhir saham BMRI diperdagangkan dalam rentang PBV rata-rata di 2.03 – 3.71 x Book Value. Median BMRI berada pada 2.88 x BV. Sementara pada penutupan perdagangan BMRI di transaksikan pada 2.83 x BV.

 Kami mencoba menggunakan beberapa scenario perhitungan dalam rentang BV BMRI dalam kurun waktu 3 tahun dengan pertumbuhan BV yang moderat. Untuk kategori Euforia BMRI diperdagangkan pada 3.71x BV atau setara dengan Rp. 11.313, Optimis pada 2.83x BV atau setara dengan Rp. 8.798, Pesimis pada 2.03x BV atau setara dengan Rp. 6.268.

 BV Sektor Perbankan sebesar 3x BV atau setara BMRI Rp. 9.173

Asian Stocks Rise, Paring a Weekly Loss - Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, paring the regional benchmark index’s decline this week, after the European Central Bank and international policy makers coordinated to lend euro-area banks U.S. dollars, increasing confidence the region’s debt crisis may be contained.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.1 percent to 119.17 as of 9:12 a.m. in Tokyo. All 10 industry groups on the measure rose, with about 14 stocks advancing for each that felld.

The index this week fell to its lowest level since Aug. 25, 2010, dragging the measure towards its second weekly loss. Concern the global economy was slipping back into a recession amid a worsening European-debt crisis and slowing U.S. growth triggered a 16 percent plunge in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index between this year’s high on May 2 and yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anna Kitanaka in Tokyo at akitanaka@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: John McCluskey

Goldman Sachs Maintains Crude Oil, Copper Forecasts Even as Risks Increase - Bloomberg

Brent crude and copper may rally as global economic growth led by emerging markets remains adequate to drive an expansion in raw-materials demand, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said, sticking with forecasts for price gains.

“We remain constructive on commodities,” Allison Nathan, an analyst at Goldman for more than a decade, said in an interview today. Still, “risks to our bullish views have risen,” said Nathan, citing Europe’s sovereign-debt problems and a “mixed bag” of economic data from the United States.

Goldman’s position contrasts with the outlook from Societe Generale SA’s global asset-allocation team, which said commodities are in a “danger zone” as growth slows, according to a report distributed yesterday. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities has shed 14 percent since April 11 on speculation that the global recovery is faltering.

“We’ve seen emerging-markets demand for key commodities, including oil, holding up well,” Nathan said in Singapore. There haven’t yet been signs that the economic woes in developed markets are spreading to emerging economies, she said.

Goldman correctly advised investors to sell oil and copper in April, then turned bullish in May before prices rebounded. Last month, the bank forecast gains for Brent crude, zinc, and other commodities over the next 12 months, analysts led by Jeffrey Currie said in an Aug. 8 report.

Copper may climb to $11,000 per metric ton, while Brent gains to $130 a barrel, the report said. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange, which reached a record $10,190 per ton in February, traded at $8,660 per ton at 4:10 p.m. in Singapore, while Brent was at $112.60 per barrel.
Greek Rescue

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that they are “convinced” Greece will stay in the euro area, boosting equity and metals prices. European governments are aiming to ratify a July 21 accord to bolster a bailout fund and extend a second rescue to Greece.

Investor skittishness over the spread of Europe’s debt crisis combined with signs that U.S. growth may be slowing have roiled markets worldwide. Recent data have shown U.S. retail sales were unchanged in August, while the economy generated no jobs and earnings fell.

“If we see weakness spreading on a global basis, that would be a catalyst to expect a weaker demand environment and potentially weaker prices relative to our forecast,” Nathan said in the interview. ‘If there was a crisis in the European banking sector, a crisis akin to 2008 could occur and that would have a large impact on commodity prices.”

China Forecasts

Still, Goldman economists forecast that China’s economic growth may be 9.2 percent next year, compared with an estimate of 9.3 percent for this year, according to Nathan. The nation is the world’s largest user of metals and energy.

Low inventories of aluminum, copper and steel in China are an indicator that demand in the country “isn’t that bad,” Julian Zhu, a Goldman analyst, said at a media briefing in Singapore today. Traders and investors have been concerned that rising interest rates and a credit-tightening policy in the nation may lead to slower consumption of raw materials.

“The Chinese government is very flexible and if they need, they can reverse the tightening policy very fast,” said Zhu. “This could be very supportive to demand for commodities because investment by local governments at all levels will see a Rebound,” said Zhu.

Societe Generale’s report said that there may be a “meaningful drop” in prices of so-called cyclical commodities such as oil and copper. Gold may rally from an increase in risk aversion, according to the report.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chanyaporn Chanjaroen in Singapore

Freeport Weighs Strike Impact at Indonesian Copper Mine as Peru Halted Too - Bloomberg

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) is assessing the impact on production and deliveries at its Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia after the union said 70 percent of workers started a one-month strike last night.

About 8,000 employees at Grasberg, excluding workers from contractors, joined the strike that started at midnight to demand wage increases, Juli Parorrongan, a labor union spokesman, said today. Freeport miners are also striking in Peru.

“We are disappointed that union workers decided to implement an illegal work stoppage,” said Ramdani Sirait, a PT Freeport Indonesia spokesman, in a statement. “The company has negotiated in a diligent good-faith manner with union representatives to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement.”

Grasberg has the world’s largest recoverable reserves of copper and the biggest single gold reserve, according to the Freeport website. Workers in Peru, Chile, Bolivia and Indonesia have gone on strike at copper, gold and zinc mines this year, seeking improved conditions and a bigger slice of record profits after metal prices more than doubled since the end of 2008.

Copper for three-month delivery advanced as much as 1.1 percent to $8,727 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange today and traded at $8,647.75 a ton.

Strikes at Grasberg in Papua province 1,940 miles (3,120 kilometers) east of Jakarta, and in Peru may widen a global shortage of copper estimated at 670,000 metric tons this year by Barclays Capital and boost prices of the metal.
Mining ‘Inactive’

Concentrate shipments from Amamapare port in Papua have been halted since 5 a.m. local time, said Virgo Solossa, head of organizational affairs at Freeport Indonesia’s labor union.

“The last deliveries left the port at 11 p.m. and this morning there are three or four vessels that were unable to load,” he said. “I could say that all mining-related activities at Grasberg are inactive at the moment.”

Freeport may complete an assessment on the impact of the strike as early as tomorrow, company spokesman Sirait said by phone, without elaborating.

In Peru, Freeport miners will continue their strike after wage talks ended in disagreement, Mining Federation General Secretary Luis Castillo said by phone. Workers and officials at the Cerro Verde unit, Peru’s third-largest copper producer, are scheduled to resume government-brokered talks today, he said. About 1,200 workers had walked off their jobs, he said.
‘Better Welfare’

Copper and molybdenum concentrate output from the unit in Peru had not been “materially affected” by the strike, said an e-mailed statement from spokesman Eric Kinneberg.

In Indonesia, more workers supported the strike at the Grasberg mine including non-union members, Parorrongan said.

“Workers put down their tools as per midnight and have moved down from mining sites since 6.30 a.m.,” he said today by telephone from Timika, the closest town to Grasberg. “This is purely an act for a better welfare.”

The company and labor union at Grasberg ended 38 days of talks over 2011-2013 contract terms on Aug. 26 after failing to agree on wages. Negotiations started after the workers walked off their jobs for eight days in July. Cerro Verde miners held a 48-hour work stoppage last week.

Grasberg workers expect wages to increase to between $17.50 and $43 an hour from $1.50 to $3.50, said Solossa yesterday. The union cut their expectations from $35 to $200 an hour initially, he said Aug. 26. Freeport offered a compensation package that includes an increase in basic wages for non-staff employees of 22 percent over a two-year period, Sirait said on Sept. 5.

Copper production at the mine fell to 1.22 billion pounds (553.4 million kilograms) last year from 1.41 billion pounds in 2009, according to the website. Gold output declined to 1.79 million ounces from 2.57 million ounces.

To contact the reporters on this story: Eko Listiyorini in Jakarta

Kamis, 15 September 2011

Ayah Michael Jackson Lirik Properti Lippo Karawaci - Okezone

JAKARTA - Indonesia kembali menjadi ladang investasi yang menggiurkan bagi masyarakat dunia. Kali ini, ayah mendiang King of Pop Michael Jackson, Joe Jackson, menanamkan investasinya di Tanah Air.

Adapun dalam lawatan bisnisnya di kawasan Asia, Joseph Walter "Joe" Jackson menyambangi The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences. Kunjungan bisnis tersebut langsung diterima oleh CEO The St Moritz & Lippo Shopping Malls Group, Michael Riady.

"Kunjungan ini menjadi bukti yang kuat bahwa nama mega proyek The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences telah diakui di kalangan pebisnis dan selebriti internasional. Kunjungan ini mungkin merupakan kunjungan yang pertama dari selebriti kelas dunia Hollywood ke mega proyek yang dibangun di Indonesia," jelas Michael Riady, dalam siaran persnya kepada okezone, Kamis (15/9/2011).

Diakuinya, kunjungan bisnis sekaligus rencana investasi properti yang akan dilakukan Joseph Walter "Joe" Jackson di kawasan Asia dan Indonesia, tak lepas dari melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi saat ini di Amerika Serikat (AS). Di mana, Joe akan berinvestasi properti di Indonesia dan The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences.

"Saya senang dengan konsep global city yang akan terwujud di The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences dan tertarik untuk berinvestasi properti di wilayah dengan pertumbuhan yang signifikan," papar Joe Jackson.

Ditambahkan Michael, kawasan Asia dan Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang jauh lebih menarik dan investasi di bisnis properti memberikan keuntungan yang signifikan, terlebih jika investasi properti tersebut dilakukan di kawasan yang sedang bertumbuh, seperti CBD Jakarta Barat di mana mega proyek The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences sedang dibangun.

Sekadar informasi, The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences yang berlokasi di CBD Jakarta Barat memiliki keunggulan strategis, karena sangat dekat dengan bandara dan memiliki fasilitas-fasilitas dengan standar internasional, dekat dengan komunitas elit di Jakarta Barat serta didukung infrastruktur yang sangat memadai.

Lebih dari itu, kehadiran The JW Marriot Hotel West Jakarta St Moritz (hotel mewah internasional berbintang lima pertama dan satu-satunya di luar area segitiga emas CBD) dan St Moritz Mall dengan anchor tenant terkemuka seperti Debenhams Department Store dan butik-butik fesyen internasional serta restoran kelas dunia, tentu saja akan mampu mendorong pertumbuhan investasi properti yang sangat signifikan yang dilakukan di The St Moritz Penthouses & Residences.

Harga batu bara di China akan naik - Bisnis Indonesia

SINGAPURA: Goldman Sachs Group Inc mengatakan harga batubara di China akan naik tahun ini dan 2012 sebagai akibat hambatan transportasi yang memaksa untuk menutup beberapa tambang.

Menurut Julian Zhu, analis di Goldman, batubara termal dapat meningkat 7% pada 2011 dan 5% tahun depan. Harga untuk bahan bakar yang digunakan dalam pembuatan baja (kokas) diperkirakan naik 12% tahun ini dan 8% pada 2012.

Batubara termal atau steam coal, banyak digunakan untuk bahan bakar pembangkit listrik, pembakaran umum seperti pada industri bata atau genteng, dan industri semen. Sedangkan batubara metalurgi atau kokas (metallurgical coal atau coking coal) digunakan untuk keperluan industri besi dan baja serta industri kimia.

Zhu mengatakan gangguan kereta api dan konsolidasi dalam industri batubara mendorong harga lebih tinggi. Menurut McCloskey HIS—penyedia data yang berbasis di Inggris, batubara di pelabuhan Newcastle Australia, harga patokan Asia, naik US$2,35 atau 2% menjadi US$122,90 per metrik ton pada pekan yang berakhir 9 September.

Selain itu, lanjut Zhu, merger di industri batubara akan menyebabkan penutupan tambang yang lebih kecil.

"Kita telah melihat 1.000 tambang ditutup. [Selain itu] kemacetan kereta api dan meningkatnya biaya juga akan menjaga harga naik,” ujarnya seperti dikutip Bloomberg.

Aug11 cement sales slipped 0.3% - Mandiri

Domestic cement sales slipped 0.3% yoy and 17.7% qoq in Aug11 due to seasonality factor, confirming our prediction. Continued works on property and infrastructure during the month managed to support growth, shown from the solid bulk cement sales growth (16.3% yoy), despite bag segment fell 3.8% yoy. Hence, cumulative sales growth eased to 13.1% yoy, amounting to total sales of 31.3 mn tons during 8M11. We think sales should rebound in Sept11, as no major impediments yet seen, including the weather. Our favorites are still SMCB and INTP, given consistently strong growth at their home markets, namely Jakarta and West Java, with strong presence in the ready-mix segment. We maintain overweight on the sector.

August growth softened due to religious holiday. Domestic cement sales in Aug11 recorded 3.6mn tons, fell by 0.3% yoy and 17.7% qoq. This was expected following religious festive period when similar trend occurred at least in the past 5 years. Yet, cement sales was helped by the boom in property sector and progressing infrastructure works, as indicated by the strong 16.3% growth in bulk cement sales, while bag segment fell 3.8% yoy. Growth in Jakarta (5.1%) and West Java (1.2%) also supported the argument, besides notable growth seen in resource-rich regions, including Sulawesi (42.7% yoy) and Kalimantan (+4.5% yoy). All concludes to domestic cumulative sales of 31.3mn tons, which increased by 13.1% yoy, a little softer than in the previous month of 15.1% yoy.

SMCB tackled the two giants. SMCB lead the pack in terms of growth in Aug, by posting 16.8% yoy growth, while INTP’s was flat 0.1% yoy and SMGR even recorded a decline of 8.3% yoy. As a result, SMCB’s Indonesia market share improved to 15.7%, which was the best since 2005. We see the key is on the company’s ability in tapping upbeat growth in areas outside Java, while sustaining market presence on its main areas, namely Jakarta and West Java that are experiencing bullish market condition. For INTP, despite of overall decline in Java region by 1.9% (70% of its sales), the company managed to mitigate this by strengthening its presence in areas outside Java, such as Sulawesi (+89.4% yoy), Kalimantan (3.1% yoy) and East Indonesia (40.9%), as a result of the recent improvement of the port in Tarjun, South Kalimantan that provides an additional 1mn tons cement to market. In the meantime, SMGR seemed to continue struggling in sustaining market share underpinned by weak pricing power, in our view. In Aug, SMGR market share contracted to 40.6%, the lowest, at least, in the past 6 years.

Sales should rebound in Sept11. While we don’t see any major event yet that would cloud cement demand, including economic and weather factors, sales should rebound in Sept11 that sustain cumulative sales growth for the entire year. SMCB and INTP are still our favorites given stronger pricing power, supported by strong market presence in the ready-mix segment, which outlook continue to be buoyant. We maintain overweight on the sector.

Indonesia Palm Oil Sector - Earnings sensitivity to CPO price recovered - Credit Suisse

● Earnings sensitivity to CPO prices for Indonesian companies when CPO prices range between RM3,000 and RM3,500 is now higher than that of Malaysian CPO producers. During such a CPO price range, every RM100/t increase in CPO prices translates into
an average 4.3% increase in earnings of Indonesia CPOs versus 3% for their Malaysian counterparts.
● Despite the improvement in earnings sensitivity, we find that Indonesia plantation companies are trading at a discount to their Malaysian peers. Indonesian companies are trading at 11.2x FY11E P/E, while Malaysian companies at 14.9x FY11E P/E.
● We foresee that there might be a potential return of La Nina. However, it still unclear as to what the strength of the La Nina will be, but will most likely be weaker than the one in 2010-11.
● AALI’s August 2011 CPO output was down by 4% YoY (-8% MoM) due to the holiday season and thus September may see a MoM pick-up. However, we expect a flattening output ahead with 4Q11 output likely to decline QoQ.

PT London Sumatra Plantation Tbk (LSIP) Ongoing Good Result - AAA

LSIP continued to book good result in 1H11 with revenue increased 52% yoy to Rp2.3 tn while net profit was up 112% yoy to Rp886 bn. The higher revenue was due to 12% yoy increase in CPO ASP and PK ASP of 34%, while sales volume of CPO yoy was up 27%, PKO 18% and Palm Seed 61%. These results were above our expectation. Based on these impressive results, we have recalculated our forecast and upgraded our TP to Rp3,400.

± Production In Good Shape, Sales Volume Up
The production increased 26% yoy to 860,891 tons in 1H11. This was mainly because of the favorable weather in the 1H11. FFB from plasma and 3rd parties were also up 58.8% yoy while from nucleus was 15.3%. Downstream, the CPO production increased 25% to 199,447 tons yoy. Combined with higher ASP, the higher production led to an increase in sales volume of CPO, PKO and Palm Seed of 27%, 18% and 61% respectively.

± Stable CPO Price
ASP CPO was up 12% yoy to Rp7,239/kg and ASP PK also up 34% yoy to Rp4,481/kg in 1H11. Although production or harvest in the 2H11 will likely to be higher than the 1H11, we expect CPO price to remain relatively unchanged due to strong demand particularly in Asia.

LSIP’s palm seed is highly demanded with its ASP of Rp10,700/seed. LSIP palm seed price is believed to be one of the highest quality in the industry. However, the contribution to the total sales is insignificant of about less than 5%.

± Financial Performance
LSIP’s sales to its parent, SIMP was up from 51% (Rp797.9 mn) in 1H10 to 65% (Rp1.5 tn) in 1H11. This is one of the advantages of having an integrated business within the group.

While revenue has increased 52.12% yoy to Rp2.38 tn in 1H11, the net profit soared 112.2% yoy to Rp886 mn in 1H11 from previously Rp418 mn in 1H10. Higher percentage increase yoy of net profit than revenue in 1H11 was due to the impact of economic of scale on lower manufacturing costs plus the lower operating forex losses. In addition, with IndoAgri Resources sold 8% of its ownership to PT Salim Ivomas Pratama and to public in December 2010, the share’s public float increase to 40.5% (from 35.6% previously). This entitles LSIP to 5% lower corporate tax. As of 1H11, effective tax rate was at 20%, lower than in 1H10 of 25%.

± Valuation
We revised production forecast for full year 2011 in which FFB production will reach 2 mn tons (up 8%), CPO production will reach 453 thousand tons (up 1%) and PK production will reach 108 thousand tons (down 2%). After the revision our new TP is upgraded to Rp3,400, with an implied PE of 11.5x versus PE industry of 10.5x. Our TP provides about 46.6% potential upside, making LSIP the top picks in our plantation coverage.

New BI regulation heralds as positive for domestic banks - Deutsche Bank

Plans to regulate export monies and forex borrowing could be positive for domestic banks

Soon the central bank ('BI') will require monies obtained from exports to be repatriated. In addition, BI is also putting limits on FX denominated debts issued by indonesian corporations. The proposals are aimed at "strengthening" the country's forex reserves which is so far standing at US$125bn, providing support for rupiah stability ‐ hence reducing risks of capital reversals.

We view that the new regulation should be positive for the Indonesian banking sector. Not only that this will support the already ample liqudity in the system, but it will also encourage domestic loan growth, especially for Rupiah‐based lending (which has grown 20.6% yoy ‐ lower than the overall loan growth of 23.0%). As of Jun‐11, the estimated excess liquidity remains plentiful at 22% of total loans outstanding. As most of the liquidity is concentrated in major banks, they are more likely to maintain a strong lending appetite.

We retain our overweight call for sector and we view that the main beneficiaries from the new regulation are those banks with strong deposit franchises. This bodes well with our top picks such as BBNI, BBRI, BMRI and BBCA.

Agus Marto Pasang Status Waspada Krisis Eropa - Detikfinance

Jakarta - Krisis yang berlangsung di AS dan Eropa menyebabkan kondisi ekonomi global terguncang. Pemerintah Indonesia waspada penuh dan siap melakukan antisipasi terkait krisis tersebut.

"Eropa harus kita waspadai dan kita harus mempersiapkan diri selalu merespons dengan tepat perkembangan yang ada," ungkap Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo di Gedung DPR, Kamis (15/9/2011).

Antisipasi yang dilakukan pemerintah yakni melakukan kerjasama antar institusi. Antara lain dengan Bank Indonesia, Bapepam LK, dan juga Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS).

Agus menambahkan, Indonesia saat ini sudah lebih siap menghadapi krisis melalui protokol krisis yang kuat.

"Kita kemarin berkesempatan meyakini krisis managemen protokol kita berjalan dan itu adalah bentuk kerjasama yang kita lakukan ke depan khusus untuk ekonomi," tuturnya.

Agus sebelumnya mengatakan, di tengah kondisi ekonomi global yang tidak menentu pemerintah menyiapkan strategi khusus untuk mengantisipasi dampak krisis. Salah satunya, pemerintah telah menyiapkan stimulus di semester I-2012 yang dipersiapkan untuk menghadapi kondisi terburuk.

Indofood Sukses Makmur Naikkan Kepemilikan di ICBP Menjadi 80,58% - Top Saham

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk mengumumkan telah melakukan pembelian saham PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) melalui bursa. Pembelian sebanyak 1 juta lembar saham pada kisaran Rp 4950 - Rp 4975 per saham.

Demikian disampaikan Werianty Setiawan, Direktur & Corporate Secretary Indofood Sukses Makmur dalam keterbukaan informasinya di Jakarta, Kamis (15/9).

Disebutkan, atas transaksi tersebut, kepemilikan saham perseroan di ICBP meningkat dari semula 4.697 miliar menjadi 4.698 lembar atau semula 80,56% menjadi 80,58% lembar. Pembelian dilakukan pada 6 dan 7 September 2011.

XL Axiata to seal Rp10 trio loans in 3 years - Insider Stories

Indonesia's third largest cellular operator PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) aims to secure Rp10 trillion loan facilities in the next 3 years.

The operator is seeking syndicated loan faciliies or bilateral credit from financial institutions. XL Axiata is also considering the bond or other debt instruments issuance. The financing has obtained approbal from XL's board commissioner on September 13 2011. XL Axiata will use the facilities to support its cellular business.

Total Bangun Persada incar kenaikan omzet 25% - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: PT Total Bangun Persada Tbk, perusahaan konstruksi, menargetkan pertumbuhan pendapatan 25% (year-on-year) selama Januari-September 2011.

Direktur Total Moeljati Soetrisno mengungkapkan kinerja perseroan selama sembilan bulan pertama tahun ini sudah sejalan dengan target yang dipatok oleh perseroan hingga akhir tahun.

"Sampai akhir tahun, kami targetkan pendapatan bisa mencapai Rp1,7 triliun, sementara laba bersih sebesar Rp100 miliar. Jumlah tersebut merefleksikan pertumbuhan 25% dibandingkan tahun lalu. Pada kuartal III ini, kami perkirakan juga tumbuh sekitar itu," ujarnya saat dihubungi Bisnis hari ini.

Selama periode sembilan bulan pertama tahun lalu, Total membukukan pendapatan sebesar Rp1,07 triliun dan laba bersih sebesar Rp53,4 miliar.

Dengan perkiraan pertumbuhan sebesar 25%, maka hingga September tahun ini perseroan berpotensi meraup pendapatan dan laba bersih masing-masing sebesar Rp1,33 triliun dan Rp66,76 miliar.

Duta Pertiwi considers rights issue - Insider Stories

PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) is considering to hold rights issue in a bid to meet the financing requirement for coal investment business.
President Director Duta Pertiwi Siang Hadi Widjaja said the company is seeking Rp200 billion to diversify business.

Duta Pertiwi currently holds 60% shareholding in PT Intitirta Prima Sakti that discovers potential coal reserves of 150 million-200 million tons. PT Ayrus Prima is holding 21.04% stake in Intitirta. Ayrus Prima is controlling shareholder in shipping operator PT Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Tbk (APOL).

Agung Podomoro Mengakuisisi 80 persen Alam Hijau - Top Saham

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) mengumumkan mengakuisisi 80 persen saham PT Alam Hijau Teduh. Demikian Wakil Direktur Utama APLN Ariesman Widjaja dalam keterbukaan informasi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Jakarta, Kamis (15/6).

PT Alam Hijau Teduh adalah perusahaan yang berdomisili di Jakarta. Pengambialihan saham dalam perusahaan merupakan bentuk realisasi terhadap rencana penggunaan dana hasil obligasi perseroan.

Sebelumnya, Agung Podomoro Land juga telah melakukan perjanjian pengikatan jual beli saham untuk mengakuisisi 99,9 persen saham PT Karya Gemilang Perkasa (KGP) yang berdomisili di Jakarta Utara.

KGP adalah perusahaan yang memiliki 52,83 persen saham dari PT Pluit Propertindo. Pluit Propertindo adalah pemilik dan pengelola Emporium Pluit Mall yang terletak di daerah Pluit, Jakarta Utara.

Akbar Indo tender offer set at Rp151 - Insider Stories

PT Citra Bumi Sentosa (CBS) has set a mandatory tender offer for 57 million shares or 51.82% stake in PT Akbar Indo Makmur Stimec Tbk (AIMS) at Rp151 per share or Rp8.61 billion.

The tender offer is set at a period of September 13 to October 12 2011, an official statement said to Indonesia Stock Exchange today.

The settlement date will be completed on October 17 2011.
The tender offer is required by the regulation after CBS and previous controlling shareholder in Akbar Indo Makmur, dubbed PT Stimec International, entered shares sale and purchase agreement on July 19 2011.Under the agreement, CBS acquired 28.41% stake or 31.25 million shares in Akbar Indo Makmur on August 1 2011 at Rp70 a share.

CBS is a company focusing in coal mining and trading. It was founded in 2007. Hendra Firmansyah and Felix owns 50% stake each in CBS. In the first quarter of 2011, CBS booked a Rp5.5 million net loss.
Stimec International is owned by PT Berkat Amalia Intan Kemuliaan with 66.07%, Gunadi Dibjojuwono with 22.47%, and Cythia Minarni Dharma with 22.46%.

Sukses Sawit bangun 2 pabrik di Kaltim - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: PT Sukses Sawit Sejahtera, anak perusahaan PT BW Plantation Tbk, akan menggunakan kucuran dana segar dari Bank Rakyat Indonesia untuk membangun dua pabrik baru di Kalimantan Timur.

Pembangunan akan mulai dilaksanakan tahun depan dan direncanakan selesai tahun 2013, dengan kapasitas masing-masing 60 Ton per jam. Menurut Sekretaris Perusahaan PT BW Plantation Kelik Irwantono, pembangunan tersebut menghabiskan dana sekitar Rp220 M.

"Untuk kredit investasi kebun senilai Rp1 Triliun akan digunakan untuk perawatan tanaman belum menghasilkan dan perluasan tanaman baru. Total planted area BWPT saat ini 56.000 Ha, sementara lahan yang kita miliki 92.000 Ha. Lahan kosong seluas 36.000 Ha itu yang akan kita tanami dengan dana pinjaman tersebut," ujarnya saat dihubungi Bisnis.

Kelik menambahkan Sukses Sawit Sejahtera akan mulai berproduksi 2013 bersamaan dengan selesainya pembangunan pabrik tersebut. "Produksi akan signifikan karena areal menghasilkan di 2013 luasnya 9.000 Ha dan 2014 bertambah lagi sekitar 8.000 Ha."

Seperti diketahui, emiten berkode BWPT ini baru saja mendapatkan kucuran dana dari Bank Rakyat Indonesia dalam dua bentuk dengan nilai lebih dari Rp1,3 Triliun. Kredit investasi senilai Rp1,2 Triliun dikenakan bunga 10% per tahun dan akan dibayarkan tiap triwulan.

Penarikan kredit akan berlangsung selama 5 tahun sejak penandatangan perjanjian. Sedangkan bunga yang dikenakan besarnya 10% per tahun dan akan dibayarkan tiap triwulan.

Sementara itu, untuk kredit modal kerja sebesar Rp46,5 miliar jangka waktunya 48 bulan. Penarikannya akan dilakukan bertahap antara tahun 2012 hingga tahun 2013, dengan bunga 10% per tahun.

Sebagai jaminan dua bentuk kredit tersebut, emiten berkode BWPT ini menjaminkan Hak Guna Usaha tanah seluas 20.220 Ha yang terdapat di Desa Senyiur, Kabupaten Kuta Timur, Kalimantan Timur. Mereka juga menjaminkan aktiva tetap milik PT Sawit Sukses Sejahtera, tanaman, dan 2 bangunan pabrik yang akan dibangun dengan dana pinjaman.

Surya Citra to distribute Rp205 dividend - Insider Stories

PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA), a parent company of Surya Citra Television that is controlled by Sariaatmadja family, today announces a Rp205 per share of interim dividend.

The company will distribute the dividend after it has been approved by board of commissioner and director on September 13 2011. Cum dividend is set on October 3 2011 in the regular and negotiation markets.

The company reported Rp382.63 billion net profit in the first half of this year, a 81.82% jump from Rp210.44 billion a year earlier.

Operating profit rose 57.93% to Rp515.67 billion in 1H 2011 from Rp326.51 billion in 1H 2010. Surya Media's net revenue increased 26.83% to Rp1.12 trillion from Rp879.29 billion. Cash from operations grew 35.27% to Rp500.77 billion from Rp370.20 billion.

PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk controls 85.26% stake in Surya Media, Fofo Sariaatmadja owns 0.09%, and public investors hold 14.65%.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) (TP 4.955) - Bang Juntri (Pengamat Pasar Modal)

Resume:
 Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berkisar 6,3-6,8 % di 2012. Kuatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi ditandai dengan meningkatnya permintaan domestik yang mampu mendorong peningkatan pertumbuhan.
 BI memperkirakan dalam jangka menengah inflasi akan berada pada kisaran 5%.
 Kami perkirakan BI tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga sampai akhir 2012 mengingat laju inflasi yang tetap terjaga.
 Sikap pemerintah terhadap defisit dan utang tetap bijaksana. Bahkan meskipun Rasio utang terhadap PDB menurun, defisit anggaran selalu lebih rendah dari target.
 Bond Stabilization Framework, BI menekankan bahwa fasilitas mereka tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan jaminan hasil bagi investor tetapi lebih dari perlindungan terhadap krisis likuiditas yang kemungkinan dipicu oleh peristiwa eksternal.
 Secara keseluruhan dari beberapa point diatas kami masih optimis bahwa pergerakan IHSG dalam jangka menengah dan panjang akan terus bertumbuh positif. Hal ini ditandai dengan kuatnya fundamental ekonomi Indonesia, masih derasnya ‘capital inflow’ yang ditandai dengan meningkatnya investasi langsung dan meningkatnya kepemilikan asing di Surat Utang Negara serta potensi peningkatan peringkat Indonesia menjadi ‘Investment Grade’ pada Q4’11 atau 1Q’12.
















 Secara historical 3 tahun IHSG diperdagangkan pada rentang 16.12-20.16x PER.

 Price Earning Ratio IHSG memiliki Rata-Rata Pertumbuhan 3 Bulanan sebesar 5.60%


















 Dengan menggunakan beberapa scenario perhitungan dalam rentang PER IHSG dalam kurun waktu 3 tahun dengan pertumbuhan PER yang moderat.

Euforia IHSG diperdagangkan pada 20.16x PER atau setara dengan 5.550,
Optimis IHSG diperdagangkan pada 16.12x PER atau setara dengan 4.338,
Pesimis IHSG diperdagangkan pada 12.09x PER atau setara dengan 3.328.

Secara historical median rata-rata IHSG berada pada kisaran 18x PER sehingga denga laju pertumbuhan EPS yang sebesar 5.6% QoQ maka kami perkirakan IHSG akan berada pada 4.955 pada tahun 2012.

Japanese Stocks Advance as Germany, France Express Support for Greece - Bloomberg

Japanese stocks rose, with the Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average headed for its biggest gain in a week, after German and French leaders said they are convinced Greece will remain in the euro zone and speculation grew that China may help the region’s most-indebted nations.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (8306), Japan’s largest publicly traded lender, gained 1.2 percent. Sony Corp. (6758), which depends on Europe for more than 20 percent of its sales, climbed 1.7 percent after the euro appreciated against the yen, boosting the exporter’s earnings outlook. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203), the biggest carmaker by market value, advanced 1.3 percent.

The Nikkei 225 rose 1.6 percent to 8,653.92 as of 9:24 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its biggest increase since Sept. 7. The broader Topix added 1.3 percent to 751.31, with about 10 shares rising for each that fell.

“There was a concern that France and Germany would one- sidedly blame Greece and show no support, but the situation on Greece was not as bad as expected,” said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees about $600 million in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. “Following the stronger euro, more companies sensitive to the euro on earnings will likely be bought.”

The Topix fell 17 percent through yesterday this year amid concern U.S. growth is sputtering and Europe’s debt crisis will damage the banking system, damping demand in two of Japan’s biggest export markets.
Support For Greece

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced for a third day yesterday in New York, rising 1.4 percent. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel are “convinced” Greece will remain in the euro area, according to a statement issued by Sarkozy after they spoke to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou by telephone. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed today.

China is willing to buy the bonds of nations hit by the debt crisis, Caijing reported on its website yesterday, citing Zhang Xiaoqiang, a vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The euro rose against the majority of its most-traded counterparts, after leaders of the region’s two-largest economies express support for Greece. The shared-currency appreciated to 105.59 yen from 104.82.

Earlier yesterday in New York, stocks slumped after inventories in the U.S. rose less than forecast in July, indicating companies are bracing for slowing demand.

Separate data showed U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in August as a lack of employment and limited income growth restrained demand, highlighting the risk the world’s biggest economy will stall.

To contact the reporters on this story: Norie Kuboyama in Tokyo at nkuboyama@bloomberg.net; Toshiro Hasegawa in Tokyo at thasegawa6@bloomberg.net.

ADB cuts 2011 China growth forecast to 9.3% - Chinadaily

BEIJING, September 14 (Xinhua) -- The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday cut China's growth forecast to 9.3 percent for the year from its previously estimated 9.6 percent.

The ADB also lowered its estimate for the country's economic growth to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent for next year, according to the update to the Asian Development Outlook released Wednesday by the Manila-based lender.

China's economic growth slowed during the first half of the year, mainly due to the country's tightening policies and weakening outbound demand, said Paul Heytens, ADB country director for China, in the report.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 9.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2011, tapering off from the 9.7-percent growth posted in the first quarter of this year and 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

The report said the country's economy will largely be driven by domestic consumption and future investment. Urbanization and the massive construction of government-subsidized housing projects will become important engines for GDP growth.

A possible economic slowdown in the second half is mainly due to the faltering global economic recovery, especially the weak demand from European countries as a result of the deepening debt crisis, according to the report.

Food prices will rise at a slower pace over the rest of the year, partly because of the bumper autumn harvest and increased pork supplies.

Inflationary pressures may ease in the second half and next year, as food prices account for about one-third in the basket of goods used to calculate China's consumer prices.

The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose 6.2 percent in August year-on-year, down from a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

A slower inflation rate, coupled with reductions in personal income tax and government efforts to improve people's livelihoods, will help to stimulate private consumption, the ADB said.

China has adopted a slew of measures to stem soaring consumer prices by steadily raising interest rates, ordering banks to put more money in reserve and imposing limits on home purchases in several major cities.

The bank said it expects the country to increase investment in construction of government-subsidized housing units, including affordable homes, low-rent homes, public rental homes and price-capped homes.

China plans to build 10 million subsidized housing units this year and 36 million more over the next five years.

Furthermore, the ADB said China has become an aging society since 2000. The country's working-age population will peak in 2015 and labor shortages will become more common thereafter.

A relatively high age-dependency ratio means more medical expenses and endowment expenditures from the government, while labor shortages are likely to push up labor costs. This highlights the pressing need for the country to rebalance its economy and increase labor productivity, the bank noted.

Pemerintah Buyback Surat Utang Rp 100 Miliar - Detikfinance

Jakarta - Hari ini pemerintah melakukan pembelian kembali (buyback) surat utang negara (SUN) sebesar Rp 100 miliar. Buyback dilakukan secara langsung di pasar sekunder.

Hal ini disampaikan oleh Kepala Biro Humas Kementerian Keuangan Yudi Pramadi dalam siaran pers, Rabu (14/9/2011).

"Kementerian Keuangan telah melaksanakan transaksi pembelian kembali Surat Utang Negara (SUN) secara langsung di pasar sekunder dengan menggunakan fasilitas dealing room Ditjen Pengelolaan Utang," kata Yudi.

SUN yang ditransaksikan hari ini meliputi 1 seri SUN dengan jumlah atau nilai nominal yang dibeli Pemerintah sebesar Rp 100 miliar.

Adapun SUN yang dibeli kembali adalah SUN seri FR0030 dengan kupon 10,75% dan jatuh tempo 15 mei 2016. Jumlah yang dibeli kembali adalah 100 ribu unit.

"Setelmen hasil pelaksanaan transaksi langsung ini akan dilaksanakan pada 16 September 2011, sesuai dengan peraturan yang berlaku. SUN yang dibeli kembali oleh Pemerintah melalui transaksi SUN secara langsung sebesar Rp 100 miliar dinyatakan lunas dan tidak berlaku lagi," tukas Yudi.

Indo Straits Angkut 2,4 Juta Ton Batubara BUMI - Detikfinance

Jakarta - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) akan mengangkut batubara milik PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) sebanyak 2,4 juta ton. Pengangkutan akan dilakukan selama enam bulan.

Menurut Presiden Director PTIS Hui Mun Leong, perseroan sudah mendapatkan letter of intent dari salah satu anak usaha BUMI, yaitu PT Arutmin Indonesia untuk menyewa floating crane perseroan.

"Rencana pengangkutan tersebut akan dimulai mulai bulan September 2011 ini di tempat produksi batubara Arutmin di Satui, Kalimantan Selatan," katanya dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Rabu (14/9/2011).

Kerjasama ini juga memungkinkan untuk perpanjangan selama enam bulan lagi jika masa kerjasama telah berakhir. Menurutnya, Arutmin sudah sejak lama menjadi klien perseroan, dan kerjasama ini akan memberi nilai tambah kepada perseroan.

Pada perdagangan hari ini, harga saham PTIS turun 40 poin (-4,49%) ke level Rp 850 per lembar. Sahamnya ditransaksikan sembilan kali dengan volume 133 lot senilai Rp 56,365 juta.

Investasi Toyota Bukti Iklim Investasi Makin Baik - Okezone

KARAWANG - Langkah PT Toyota Motor Manufacturing Indonesia (TMMIN) berinvestasi di Indonesia menunjukkan bahwa iklim investasi semakin baik.

Dengan adanya pabrik TMMIN yang baru, Menteri Perindustrian MS Hidayat berharap akan menyerap banyak tenaga kerja. "TMMIN sebagai salah satu pelaku industri automotif terbesar di Indonesia diharapkan dapat menjadi pelopor dalam pengembangan industri komponen berdaya saing tinggi," kata dia, Rabu (14/9/2011).

Selain itu, perusahaan ini diharapkan dapat memberikan perhatian pada peningkatan penguasaan kemampuan teknologi dalam negeri melalui pengembangan riset, sehingga pada akhirnya industri kendaraan bermotor roda empat secara utuh dapat dikuasai.

Direktur Jenderal Industri Unggulan Berbasis Teknologi Tinggi (IUBTT) Kementerian Perindustrian (Kemenperin) Budi Darmadi mengatakan, apabila ada sebuah prinsipal kendaraan yang melakukan investasi, maka langkahnya akan diikuti oleh industri pendukungnya.

"Biasanya kalau prinsipal investasi 100 persen, maka industri pendukung seperti komponen akan investasi juga 40 persen," tutup Budi.

Duit Miliaran Bank Bukopin 'Nyangkut' di Istaka Karya - Detikfinance

Jakarta - Proses pailit PT Istaka Karya (Persero) meninggalkan banyak 'warisan' berupa utang. Antara lain PT Bank Bukopin Tbk yang apes kebagian warisan berupa utang yang nilainya miliaran rupiah.

Direktur Utama Bukopin Glen Glenardi mengungkapkan meski jumlahnya tidak signifikan bagi arus kas Bukopin namun Istaka Karya masih menyisakan utang dalam bentuk working capital.

"Jumlahnya miliaran, tapi size Bukopin dibandingkan bank lain masih relatif tidak begitu besarlah. Ada bank BUMN juga kok yang jadi kreditur termasuk bank Permata dan BII," ungkapnya ketika ditemui disela acara IBI-Perbanas silaturahmi di Hotel JW Marriot, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta, Rabu (14/9/2011).

Menurut Glen, Bukopin sendiri masih menunggu proses hukum karena proses pailit masuk ke ranah pengadilan. Urusan dengan kreditur juga akan diurus pengadilan.

"Kita sudah bekerja sama dengan Istaka Karya sejak 6 sampai 7 tahun lalu. Karena merupakan BUMN maka kita berikan working capital tapi ternyata pailit ya pemerintah pasti juga ada tanggung jawablah," paparnya.

Dijelaskan Glen, pembiayaan bagi Istaka Karya ini dikucurkan untuk pembangunan proyek-proyek konstruksi. Kedepan, sambungnya Glen berharap keputusan hukum akan jelas sehingga dananya bisa kembali.

"Kita hormati proses hukum dan kita tunggu sampai selesai," pungkasnya.

Seperti diketahui, Keputusan Perdata Khusus Mahkamah Agung nomor: 124 K/PDT.SUS/2011 tanggal 22 Maret 2011 mengabulkan gugatan pailit Istaka Karya, namun demikian Mahkamah Agung mengeluarkan keputusan yang bertentangan yaitu Keputusan Perdata Umum nomor: 678 PK/PDT/2010 tanggal 22 Maret 2011 yang keputusannya mengabulkan permohonan Peninjauan Kembali (PK) Istaka Karya dan menolak tuntutan utang PT JAIC.

Kemenkeu : Pelemahan Rupiah Cuma Sementara - Okezone

JAKARTA - Amblesnya rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) diyakini tidak akan berlangsung lama. Pasalnya, ambruknya rupiah kali ini disebabkan karena kekhawatiran investor terhadap krisis Eropa yang diyakini tidak akan berlangsung lama.

"Temporary lah lah, ini juga disebabkan karena kekhawatiran investor terhadap krisis di Eropa, kita harap tidak akan berlangsung lama," ungkap Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kemenkeu Bambang Brodjonegoro ketika ditemui di Gedung DPR RI, Senayan, Jakarta, Rabu (14/9/2011).

Lebih lanjut dia menjelaskan ambruknya rupiah hari ini dijelaskan karena banyaknya investor global yang melakukan hedging ke dolar karena krisis global yang terjadi. Namun demikian dia meyakini dengan membaiknya krisis Eropa nanti rupiah akan kembali menguat. "Zona euro mencari solusi," tambahnya.

Untuk antisipasi ini juga dia mengatakan Indonesia mempunyai semacam antisipasi jika krisis di Eropa belum mereda, sehingga rupiah tidak terpuruk lebih lama. "Kita punya semacam crisis management protocol menjaga surat berharga," pungkasnya.

Indo Straits seals contract from Arutmin - Insider Stories

PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) has obtained a contract of transhipping a minimum quantity of 2,40 million tons coal over an initial period of 6 months.
In an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange today, the contract, which will tentatively commence in September 2011, takes place at coal mine in Satui, South Kalimantan.

The arrangement also allows for option for another 6 month contract extension following the end of the initial 6 months period.
"This is an excellent milestone for Indo Straits given that Arutmin Indonesia has been a long-standing esteemed client for our marine engineering division," said Indo Straits.

Duta Pertiwi discovers coal reserve - Insider Stories

PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discovers coal reserves of 200 million tons.
Duta Pertiwi President Director Siang Hadi Widjaja, as quoted by Bisnis Indonesia today, said the coal reserve discovery is a result of area survey in Jambi province, Sumatra.

Duta Pertiwi will invest Rp200 billion or US$23 million to explore the reserves. But, it seeks approval from the government. Duta Pertiwi is expanding its business into coal sector through its subsidiary PY Intitirta Prima Sakti.

Rabu, 14 September 2011

Indonesia-Market Factors to watch - Sept 14 - Reuters

JAKARTA, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Following is a list of events
in Indonesia as well as news stories and press reports that may
influence financial markets.



MARKET SNAPSHOT

* Global stocks and the euro rose on Tuesday on hopes
Europe's top powers will supply fresh support for Greece, even
as uncertainty driven by fears of a Greek default coursed
through markets.

* Indonesia's main stock index slipped 0.55 percent
on Tuesday with lender Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank
Mandiri leading the turnovers.

For prices see <0#.JKSE>, for news see .

* U.S. stocks gained on Tuesday as investors bought shares
beaten down in recent weeks and bet European leaders would take
action soon to ease the Greek debt crisis.

* Brent crude prices slipped on Tuesday, dragged down by
spread selling and a downward revision to the International
Energy Agency's forecast for growth in global oil consumption
due to the struggling economy.

* Malaysian palm oil futures retreated on Tuesday from near
one-month highs hit the previous day as a better-than-expected
production outlook for the U.S. soy crop signalled improving
vegetable oil supplies.

Thai, Indonesian Stocks Farthest From 2008-2009 Lows, Credit Suisse Says - Bloomberg

Thai and Indonesian stock markets are the farthest from 2008/9 lows, based on current price-to- book, Credit Suisse Group AG said.

Thailand traded at 2.24 times price-to-book and Indonesia at 3.43 times as of Sept. 12, more than double their 2008/9 lows, Sakthi Siva and Kin Nang Chik, analysts at Credit Suisse, wrote in a report dated yesterday. The stock markets closest to their 2008/9 lows are Israel, Brazil, Egypt and MSCI China, with the latter being just 1 percent above its low in that period, they wrote.

“Significantly, Europe’s price-to-book of 1.27 times is still 14 percent above the 2008/09 lows of 1.11 times,” they wrote.

Indonesia is the world’s fifth-best performer in the past 12 months, rising 20 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Thailand has rallied 12 percent in that time, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of developed and emerging nations has dropped 2.6 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Frost in Hong Kong

PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) Super Company, Super Highway - AAA

JSMR reported its strong financial performance in 1H11 delivering consistent growth. Promising outlook for JSMR remains intact considering its strategic role in the Indonesian development. Plus, the government is very supportive in speeding up toll-road development. We have factored in the higher traffic volume and tariff increased on our model, and maintained our TP at Rp4,500.

± Revenue increased by 12.2% YoY to Rp2.36 tn backed by the higher traffic volume. The latter increased by 13% YoY to 525.2 million vehicles compare to 464.6 million at previous year. This 1H11’s revenue achievement reflects 49% of our estimation. Cawang-Tomang Cengkareng (CAMARENG) is the largest revenue contributor which accounted for 24.4%, meanwhile Jagorawi and Jakarta outer ring road (JORR) are in the second and third position contributed 15.94% and 15.89% respectively. In total, these toll roads generated 49% of JSMR revenue.

± Operating expense increased by 12.4% YoY to Rp1.13 tn. However, this increase did not have a significant impact on operating margin, which was stable at 52%. Salary and allowance for ticket booth operators were the largest component of operating expense that accounted for around 34%. JSMR is currently in the process of implementing the transition from the human-based system to technology-based toll collection fee, e.g. e-toll card, to keep operating expenses under control.

± Net income increased by 16% YoY to Rp752 bn. Although the operating expenses increased, JSMR was quite successful to maintain net income margin at 32%, unchanged from previous period. Apart from effective operation cost control, the higher interest income and lower amount of other expenses also contribute positively to the bottomline income in 1H11.

± Benefiting from tariff adjustment in 2H11. According to the Toll Road Law no. 38 of 2005, we will see the implementation of tariff adjustment in 2H11. Referring to the accumulated inflation for the last two years, the average tariff will increase by around 13%. This adjustment will be reflected in revenue growth and net income this year. As demand for toll road is inelastic, the tariff adjustment will not negatively affect traffic volumes.

± Valuation. We have factored in the volume and tariff increase (of around 13%) in our model and maintained our TP at Rp4,500. Our TP offer 10% upward potential, for the time being we recommend BUY.

Central banks turn less hawkish on deteriorating global economic condition - Mandiri

Market review
 Overall market was still bearish, regional stock market declined affected by weakening global demand and Euro-zone debt crisis fears. The rupiah weakened 0.7% to Rp8,578/US$ while the JCI continued to show its resilience, up by 4.1% to 3,999.

Global economic update
 Fears of global economic slowdown triggered the central bank across the globe to shift to more dovish monetary policy. Brazil took an advance step by cutting policy rate; most other central banks were on hold.

Domestic economic update
 Headline inflation rose to 4.8% yoy, while core inflation exceeded central bank comfortable level at 5.2% yoy in Aug10. However, we think the spike in the core price is likely to be temporary given the seasonal factors and recent surge in gold prices.
 BI rate stays at 6.75% but the central bank widened its lower interest rate bound corridor to BI rate minus 150bps from previously BI rate minus 100bps, to stimulate interbank transaction.
 BI was reported to require exporters and debtor to repatriate foreign exchange proceeds, in order to increase supply of foreign exchanges. The impact on the rupiah is likely will be neutral, as they will not be required to convert the proceeds into the rupiah.

Oil and gas industry report - Ciptadana

Spiking price of crude oil in 1Q11 had reached its end and we estimate oil price to experience declining stage but could maintain slightly above the last year average to US$89.00/barrel. Last year average price was US$85.20/barrel and 2011 average price until September, 5 was US$99.07/barrel (WTI). Slowing economy growth in developed countries, coupled by overheating concern in developing countries, especially china, might deteriorate expected demand for short term period. Yet, we are optimistic for long term view of oil price. Growth will be derived from developing countries energy consumptions.

Doubtful world economy growth – Lower than expected financial data in US and uncertainty in Europe solvency issues have slow down developed countries growth. On the other side, developing countries put major concern on rising inflation and overheating economy. Thus, reducing the economy activity is still the best option for them. We are not really excited with the QE III package which probably kicks in as economy recovery from QE1 and QE2 have showed disappointing results so far. We put more weight on sluggish demand problem rather than liquidity and funding crisis which occurred on last crisis, 2007 and 2008.

Solid demand starts to diminish – In line with the economy outlook, OEDC continued reporting negative demand growth and developing countries, especially China, the backbone of the growth, started signaling weakening demand. Although Developing countries demand decelerated, we still expect that it might be sufficient to offset the declining growth from OECD. We might also highlight the possibility of further downside risk from longer-than-expected recovery from US, Europe and Japan economies, and also decelerating pace of oil demand from China and India, the highest and second highest growth contributors.

Well supplied ¬– Oil market is expected to be well supplied. Non OPEC oil supply is projected to increase by 0.58mb/d to 52.83mb/d while OPEC has indicated strong substantial growth in production from the previous month. In July OPEC production grew by 0.4md/d to 30.07 mb/d. Global production might enlarge even larger as Libya production coming in. Abundant supply might suggest additional downside risk to oil price.

Our national oil and gas outlook – Indonesian oil has experienced steady level of consumption since 2000 while production has a tendency to decrease year by year. However, oil demand is expected to ease in the future as continuing effort in replacing oil with gas to meet energy demand has gradually increased. This explains the substantial increase in the gas production as well as its utilization since 2008.

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) Maintaining growth - Ciptadana

Reinitiating coverage with target price of Rp59,000 - We reinitiate ITMG with BUY recommendation and target price of Rp59,000. Our target price is derived from DCF calculation with 11.8% WACC and 1.5% terminal growth. From the current market price, the target price translates for 34% upside potential. The company’s price to earning ratio is tempting where 2012 PE is 8.7x, far lower than JCI 2012 PE of 12.7x. As earnings growth will be holding up we see no reason for ITMG’s current market undervaluation.

Benign weather, production target will be achieved - ITMG has experienced unfavorable weather condition in second half of 2011 (particularly at Indominco site), but weather condition has started to improve in third quarter. As weather is one and only obstacle that could hinder the company’s to achieve its production target, we believe ITMG will meet its 2011 production target with minimum coal production of 24.5 million tones.

Maintaining growth through Trubaindo and Bharinto - Going forward, Trubaindo and Bharinto will be ITMG’s growth spots as Indominco has started to reach production plateau.The management has hinted that Indominco will produce less than 16 million tones of coal for the coming years. For speeding up production and maintain the coal production growth , additional capacity from PAMA (the company’s main contractor) already arrived at Trubaindo and Bharinto’s crushing plant construction has already completed.

Stable coal price - Although oil price has stubbornly traded below US$90/barrel since early August (a significant decrease if one compares it with 52 week high of US$114/barel), Newcastle coal price is surprisingly stable and consistently traded above US$120/tonne since last week of August. This fact is contrary to what market participants had been worrying before that benchmark coal price will have a significant correction. We estimate that ITMG will realize average selling price of US$92/tonne, much higher than 2010 ASP of US$74.7/tonne

Progress on Indonesia’s new land law - Mandiri

The DPR, through its special task force (“Pansus”), has held its first working session on the draft law (RUU) regarding the provisioning of land for infrastructure development on 18 August 2011. Our channel checks indicate that some follow-up meetings have taken place since then, and that the law makers aim to pass the law before the recess period on 28 October (optimistic scenario), or after recess in November (likely scenario). We laid out below a basket of stocks that likely outperform the market should the land acquisition bill is passed as planned.

Misinformed and confused. We sense market frustration and unwillingness to bet on Indonesian law makers approving the draft land acquisition bill anytime soon. The market expects a prolong debate caused by conflicting interests among parliament members on the matter, or the lack of political will.

Conflicting interests or pure bureaucratic delay? The fact is, the DPR Pansus has had no working session on the subject since the draft law was submitted on 15 Dec 2010. The other fact is, the DPR has only passed 10 out of the 91 draft laws, year to date. Our sources indicate that once a draft bill has been put in the agenda, the odds for its passing improves markedly.

A draft law that favors infrastructure developers, with rigid timeline for resolution of disputes. The key feature of the draft of the land acquisition bill is that the national land agency (BPN) sets the compensation value for land that would be acquired for public use. Land owners have 14 days to file a legal case, and national court has 30 days to reach final and binding verdict. Risk of civil rights violation aside, numerous infrastructure projects may progress much more quickly with this new land law, benefiting Indonesia’s economy as a whole.

One powerful new theme that should influence equity investment decision. Past disappointments aside, market participants are aware that the probability of the draft law being passed increases each year, given the worsening infrastructure bottleneck. Two years to the end of president SBY’s term, 4Q11 is the perfect time for this important draft law to be passed.

Astra Agro 8M CPO output rises 19.7% - Insider Stories

During January–August 2011,CPO production of PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) reached 807,720 tons, an increase of 19.7% compared to the same period last year.

In an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) today, the increase was mainly supported by the growth in fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production of 13.4%, from 2.63 million tons last year to 2.98 million tons.

As the biggest contributor, during this period Sumatra region booked 1.25 million tons of FFB production or up by 10.3% compared to the same period last year, while Kalimantan and Sulawesi region were 1.13 million tons (up by 18.0%) and 0.60 million tons (up by 11.7%) respectively.

Telkom: No approval to buy CamGSM - Insider Stories

Indonesia's largest telecommunication operator PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) is considering to buy companies of information technology and media in a bid to provide a fasten services.

Telkom needs Rp1 trillion cash to acquire the target companies. However, Telkom declines to further explain about the target companies.

Regarding to the proposed acquisition of Cambodian telecommunication company CamGSM, Telkom President Director Rinaldi Firmansyah, as quoted by Kontan today, said the Ministry of State Owned Enterprises, as controlling shareholder in Telkom, has not provided the approval. "There is still no approval from the government," he said.

Indonesia Menjadi Basis Produksi Toyota di Asia - Tempo Interaktif

Jakarta -Toyota Motor Corporation menyatakan komitmennya menjadikan Indonesia sebagai basis industri produksi. Pabrik di Indonesia tidak hanya untuk memasok kebutuhan mobil dalam negeri, tapi juga untuk kawasan Asia.

“Indonesia menjadi basis produksi untuk ekspor," ujar Menteri Perindustrian Muhammad Sulaiman Hidayat setelah mendampingi Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono bertemu dengan President and Representative Director Toyota Motor Corporation, Akio Toyoda, di kantor kepresidenan kemarin.

Untuk itu, kata Hidayat, Toyota meminta pemerintah segera membenahi infrastruktur, khususnya pelabuhan. Produsen otomotif terbesar di dunia ini menilai pelabuhan yang ada saat ini, Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok, sudah tidak memadai.

"Mereka meminta, dibutuhkan fasilitas pelabuhan yang memadai, bukan hanya untuk ekspor tetapi juga ke provinsi lain," kata Hidayat. Bahkan Toyota menyatakan akan ikut bersama pemerintah membantu membangun pelabuhan baru.

Dalam kesempatan itu, Akio Toyoda menyatakan pihaknya melakukan ekspansi industri otomotif dengan membangun pabrik baru di kawasan industri Karawang dengan nilai Rp 2,9 triliun. Angka ini jauh lebih besar ketimbang yang diumumkan Toyota pada Mei lalu sebesar Rp 1,7 triliun. Investasi ini digunakan untuk membangun pabrik seluas 76 ribu meter persegi.

Nantinya, pabrik baru Toyota akan menambah produksi dari 110 ribu unit menjadi 200 ribu unit per tahun. Ditargetkan, pada 2013 pabrik baru sudah mulai beroperasi.

Juru bicara Presiden, Julian Aldrin Pasha, mengatakan pemerintah akan memfasilitasi keberadaan pelabuhan, khususnya bagi percepatan arus barang dan perbaikan infrastruktur. “Yang dilakukan sekarang adalah mengembangkan Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok,” ujarnya. Sebab, untuk membangun pelabuhan baru dibutuhkan waktu sekitar 10-15 tahun.

Presiden Direktur Toyota Astra Motor Johny Darmawan menyatakan investasi Toyota di Indonesia cukup besar. Investasi ini tidak hanya menyangkut sektor produksi, tapi juga sektor pemasok. "Toyota melihat Indonesia adalah potensial market yang bagus sekali," ujarnya.

Dia berharap, pemerintah, melalui program Master Plan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi Indonesia, bisa segera memperbaiki infrastruktur.

Dalam kesempatan terpisah, Akio Toyoda menyatakan penambahan investasi didasari keyakinan ekonomi nasional terus tumbuh menggembirakan. Visi global Toyota menilai Indonesia sebagai negara berkembang yang paling diperhitungkan. "Kondisi Indonesia saat ini juga berpotensi untuk dijadikan basis produksi.”

Cina Borong Obligasi Italia - Tempo Interaktif

TEMPO Interaktif, Jakarta - Cina dipastikan akan ikut membantu mengatasi krisis utang Italia dengan membeli obligasi negara tersebut. Juru bicara Kementerian Keuangan Italia, Giulio Tremonti, mengatakan pihaknya telah bertemu dengan Ketua China Investment Corp Lou Jiwei. Dalam pertemuan tersebut dibicarakan keuntungan keuntungan Cina bila membeli obligasi Italia. Namun dia menolak berkomentar lebih jauh.

Bank sentral Cina maupun Cina Investment Corp, yang mengelola kekayaan negara, tidak bersedia memberikan keterangan. "Ini merupakan niat yang jelas dari Cina untuk membantu menstabilkan kawasan Eropa,” kata Nicholas Zhu, mantan ekonom Bank Dunia yang saat ini menjabat Kepala Penelitian Makro-Komoditas untuk Asia, Australia, dan New Zealand Banking Group di Shanghai.

Italia kemarin melelang obligasi senilai 7 miliar euro atau sekitar US$ 10 miliar. Hasil lelang akan digunakan untuk membayar imbal hasil obligasi sebesar 14,5 miliar euro, yang jatuh tempo pada 15 September nanti.

Ju Wang, seorang ahli strategi pendapatan tetap di Barclays Capital, Singapura, mengatakan pembelian obligasi oleh Cina belum tentu menyelamatkan Italia dari krisis utang. Jumlah beban utang Italia melebihi setengah dari cadangan devisa Cina. "Cina mungkin akan terus membantu untuk menopang euro,” ujarnya. Tapi dia melanjutkan, “Keterlibatannya dalam pembelian langsung obligasi Eropa tidak mungkin agresif."

Krisis keuangan di zona Eropa, termasuk Italia dan Yunani, telah menyulut kekhawatiran pasar global. Pekan ini Menteri Keuangan Amerika Serikat Timothy Geithner berencana mengadakan kunjungan ke Polandia. Dia akan menggelar perundingan dengan menteri-menteri keuangan zona euro. Kondisi ini dipicu kekhawatiran kemungkinan gagal bayar utang Yunani merembet ke sektor perbankan Eropa, sehingga memaksa mereka bertemu.

Geithner diharapkan menghadiri pertemuan zona euro pada Jumat dan langsung kembali ke Washington. Departemen Keuangan, Senin lalu, mengumumkan adanya upaya meningkatkan pemulihan global dan bekerja sama dalam regulasi keuangan. Namun perhatian Amerika Serikat tetap difokuskan pada risiko akibat menjalarnya krisis utang di Eropa.

Dampak dari potensi gagal bayar utang Yunani sudah mulai kelihatan. Senin lalu saham perbankan di Prancis berguguran. Kepercayaan investor terhadap kemampuan zona euro mengatasi krisis utang mulai runtuh. Ekonomi global terancam karena masalah utang Eropa.

Saham Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, dan Credit Agricole merosot lebih dari 10 persen. Ancaman penurunan peringkat utang oleh lembaga pemeringkat Moody Investor Services menjadi salah satu pemicunya.

Dua pejabat Prancis buru-buru mengeluarkan pernyataan untuk menenangkan pasar. Menteri Keuangan Francois Baroin mengatakan, bank-bank Prancis cukup solid untuk menahan dampak krisis di Yunani. Gubernur Bank Prancis, Kristen Noyer, meyakinkan bahwa bank-bank Prancis tidak berisiko.

"Tidak ada krisis untuk bank-bank karena mereka saat ini sedang hit di pasar, memiliki semua sarana yang diperlukan untuk menawarkan solusi," kata Baroin.

Selasa, 13 September 2011

Bumi Resources (BUMI-BUY-IDR2,675-TP:IDR3,400) Pricing in more conservative volumes - Bahana

6% per annum volume growth in 2011-13
Bumi Resources (BUMI) is the biggest coal company in Indonesia with total reserves of 2.86b tons (exhibit 7), producing the largest 1H11 volumes of 30m tons (-4% y-y) in the sector. We note that BUMI’s 1H11 domestic coal sales jumped 4x y-y to USD679m, some 38% of total (exhibit 8 & 9), helped by volume take up from PLN, the state-owned electricity company. Going forward, we expect less rain to allow production volumes to further improve over 1H11 level, reaching 34m tons, bringing full-year figure to 64m tons (+6% y-y), before slightly rising to 68m tons (+6% y-y) in 2012. Note that these figures are lower than our previous estimates of 66m tons in 2011 and 78m tons in 2012. Although BUMI expects production volumes to reach 100m tons in 2013, we have applied a much more conservative assumption of 72m tons (+6% y-y) in production volumes, increasing by an average growth of 5% per annum (pa) thereafter (exhibit 10). This is reasonable in our view given that in the last five years, BUMI’s production volume growth averaged around 6% pa.

Lower sales, higher margin assumptions
On BUMI’s coal, we have applied lower 2012-13 sales volume assumptions, as discussed above, compared to our previous forecasts. However, this is offset by higher ASP assumptions (exhibit 11), which only resulted in slightly lower 2012-13 top lines (exhibit 12). Therefore, while we expect lower revenues, margins will still be higher (exhibit 6). We expect BUMI’s 2012 operating and EBITDA margins to improve to 35% and 40% respectively, before slightly decreasing in 2013 and flattening afterwards (exhibit 13).

Net gearing to fall to 181% by 2013
On the net profit margin front, we expect a significant jump in 2011, as a result of USD213m derivative gains posted in 1H11 (exhibit 14), but still lower than the company’s peak in 2008 (exhibit 13). In 2012-13, however, we expect net margins to be maintained at the 14% level, helped by lower net interest expenses as BUMI’s net gearing falls from nearly 303% in 2011 to 228% in 2012 and 181% in 2013 (exhibit 1). Nevertheless, we note that BUMI remains as the most leveraged coal company in our coverage with high average cost of debt of around 15%, which we expect to fall to 14% in 2012 and to 13% in 2013, helped by the company’s plan to refinance.

27% upside potential + 17% market underperformance = BUY
We like the fact that BUMI’s net gearing is falling over time. This should improve sentiment on the counter over the medium term in our view. On valuation, the impact of our decreased volume assumptions is a lower target price (TP) on BUMI to IDR3,400 (from IDR4,200 previously), following the application of lower WACC assumption of 10% from 10.8% previously and new terminal growth rate of 1.5%. Therefore, 27% upside potential to our TP coupled with 17% ytd market underperformance (exhibit 5) have us reinitiating coverage on BUMI with a BUY.

Bumi secondly delays EGM, strategy? - Insider Stories

Indonesia's largest thermal coal exporter PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) for the secondly decided to delay extraordinary of shareholders meeting (EGM) to October 21 2011.

In an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) today, Bumi Director Dileep Srivastava said the company intends to delay the EGM to October 21 from the previous schedule on September 26.

Dileep said the delay is a result of the additional agendas regarding to the proposed shares sale in its non-coal subsidiary PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) as requited by the regulation of IX.E.2 about Material Transaction and the Change of Main business. Bumi will publish further announcement on the shares sale on September 19.

On an official statement dated on August 11 sent to Bapepam-LK was mentioned that the EGM was scheduled on September 26 with three agendas, the shares sale of BRMS, proposed shares buyback, and propose change of the company's charter.
Previously, Bumi intended to schedule the EGM on August 23 with two agendas, the shares sale of BRMS and the proposed shares buyback.

On June 10, Bumi Plc, previously dubbed Vallar Plc, announced a 75% stake acquisition of BRMS by Bumi Plc in return for US$2.07 billion convertible bonds (CB) to be issued by Bumi Plc with a 2% coupon and a £15.88 initial conversion price to Bumi Resources. The bonds are convertible into new Vallar voting ordinary shares.

The acquisition price of Rp850 per share represents a 21.9% premium to Bumi Minerals's 30 day average closing price of Rp697 per share to 27 May 2011.
A while after these announcement, many investors and analysts speculated that the CBs would be offered to China Investment Corporation (CIC) as the early payment of Bumi's debt. Many estimated that CIC would receive the offer and partipate at Bumi Plc's shareholder with a member of Bakrie Group.

The question is who will agree a 19% interest debt converted into 2% interest CBs with 17% spread?
At the announcement published by Bumi Plc, the BRMS proposal is expected to complete in the third quarter of 2011 and will require approval of Bumi voting ordinary shareholders.

If the transaction is expected to complete in the third quarter, the question is why Bumi has secondly delayed the EGM? Is it just a strategy to cease the deal?

Newcastle Weekly Coal Exports Decline 27%; Ship Queue Lengthens - Bloomberg

Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port fell by 27 percent last week. The queue of ships waiting to load coal cargoes rose to 9 from 7, Newcastle Port Corp. said on its website today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net

Adaro & BCA Perusahaan Terbaik Asia - Forbes

Forbes menilai 1.073 perusahaan publik dengan kapitalisasi pasar sedikitnya US$3 miliar.

Dua perusahaan Indonesia yaitu PT Adaro Energy Tbk dan PT Bank Central Asia Tbk masuk dalam daftar 50 Perusahaan Terbaik di Asia versi majalah Forbes.

Daftar ini dihasilkan setelah Forbes menilai 1.073 perusahaan publik yang memiliki pendapatan atau kapitalisasi pasar setidaknya US$3 miliar (Rp25,79 triliun). Forbes juga melihat track record kinerja selama lima tahun, seperti pendapatan, laba, return on capital, pergerakan saham dan bagaimana prospeknya. Penilaian itu menghasilkan daftar perusahaan terbaik di wilayah Asia.

Wakil perusahaan Indonesia, Adaro Energy merupakan perusahaan tambang batu bara terintegrasi, yang memiliki tiga anak usaha langsung yaitu PT Alam Tri Abadi, PT Saptaindra Sejati, dan PT Makmur Sejahtera Wisesa.

Berdasarkan data Forbes, Adaro memiliki kas US$1,19 miliar (Rp10,233 triliun)dan utang US$1,67 miliar (Rp14,36 triliun). Pendapatan perusahaan ini sebesar US$2,86 miliar (Rp24,59 triliun), dengan aset US$4,52 miliar (Rp38,87 triliun), dan laba US$462,9 juta (Rp3,98 triliun). Adaro memiliki market value US$7,6 miliar (Rp65,35 triliun).

Adapun Bank Central Asia Tbk memiliki market value US$23,2 miliar (Rp199,51 miliar) dan pendapatan US$3,1 miliar (Rp26,65 triliun). BCA masuk dalam kategori perbankan bersama China Merchants Bank, dan bank asal India, Kotak Mahindra Bank.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk membukukan laba bersih pada semester I-2011 sebesar Rp4,8 triliun. Laba ini meningkat 20,4 persen dari periode sama tahun sebelumnya sebesar Rp3,98 triliun.

Dalam daftar ini, perusahaan China mendominasi, di mana hampir separuhnya, atau 23 perusahaan asal China masuk daftar itu. Padahal pada 2005, hanya ada 5 perusahaan China pada 2006 yang masuk daftar sama.

Namun, bertambahnya perusahaan China ini sekaligus menghilangkan daftar perusahaan India, yang tercantum sebanyak 7 perusahaan tahun ini. Sementara Jepang yang pernah memimpin dengan 13 perusahaan pada saat Forbes memulai analisanya enam tahun lalu, kali ini untuk pertama kalinya tidak masuk daftar. Ini terkait gempa bumi 11 Maret 2011 lalu.

Kuatnya ekonomi Korea juga terlihat dari masuknya 8 perusahaan di daftar 50 perusahaan itu. Perusahaan-perusahaan itu juga terus masuk daftar sejak 2005.

Sebelumnya, dalam daftar 200 Best Under A Billion, masuk tiga perusahaan Indonesia, yaitu PT Jasuindo Tiga Perkasa Tbk, PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk, dan PT Panin Sekuritas Tbk. Kategori dalam penilaian itu adalah perusahaan dengan pendapatan US$5juta hingga US$1 miliar atau Rp40 miliar-Rp8 triliun.

Wall Street berkibar dipicu rencana investasi China di Italia - Bisnis Indonesia

NEW YORK: Spekulasi rencana investor China akan investasi di Italia mendorong saham-saham di bursa Amerika Serikat meningkat dan mengangkat Dow Jones 200 poin dalam 45 menit terakhir perdagangan.

Sebanyak 9 dari 10 grup industri di indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 tercatat reli dipimpin saham teknologi dan finansial.

Saham Bank of America Corp, bank terbesar AS tercatat naik 1% meski ada rencana pemangkasan 30.000 karyawan hingga beberapa tahun ke depan. Saham NetLogic Microsystems Inc juga melonjak 51% setelah Broadcom Corp akan mengakuisisi perusahaan semikonduktor itu dengan US$3,7 miliar tunai.

Indeks S&P 500 naik 0,7% menjadi 1.162,27 pada 4 p.m. di New York, setelah sempat turun 1,6% sebelumnya. Secara keseluruhan, indeks Dow Jones tercatat naik 68,99 poin atau 0,6% menjadi 11.061,12.

"Jika China memang ingin berinvestasi di Italia, mungkin itu jadi solusi," kata Mark Bronzo, pialang Security Global Investors di Irvington, New York, yang mengelola US$26 miliar.

Italy turns to China for help in debt crisis - Financial Times

Italy’s centre-right government is turning to cash-rich China in the hope that Beijing will help rescue it from financial crisis by making “significant” purchases of Italian bonds and investments in strategic companies.

According to Italian officials, Lou Jiwei, chairman of China Investment Corp, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, led a delegation to Rome last week for talks with Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, and Italy’s Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, a state-controlled entity that has established an Italian Strategic Fund open to foreign investors.

Italian officials were in Beijing two weeks ago to meet CIC and China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe), which manages the bulk of China’s $3,200bn foreign exchange reserves. Vittorio Grilli, head of treasury, met Chinese investors in Beijing in August. Italian officials said further negotiations were expected to take place soon.

The possibility of Chinese investment comes at a critical moment for Italy, as markets demand increasingly high yields to buy Italian public sector debt, projected to reach 120 per cent of GDP this year, a ratio second only to Greece in the eurozone.

Mr Tremonti has written extensively in the past about his fears of China’s “reverse colonisation” of Europe. But he has been driven to seek new alternatives as Europe prevaricates over strengthening its bail-out fund and the European Central Bank warns that its month-old bond-buying programme cannot go on indefinitely. In a reflection of Italy’s refinancing problems, the treasury on Monday sold €11.5bn of short-term notes at higher yields.

European analysts were cautious over the outcome of talks. Despite Beijing’s numerous expressions of confidence in the creditworthiness of countries such as Greece and Portugal analysts say Chinese purchases of peripheral European debt have been relatively small.

How much of Italy’s €1,900bn of debt is already held by China is unclear, though one Italian official told the FT that Beijing held about 4 per cent.

Italy’s debt crisis has forced the government to consider possible sales of strategic stakes in companies such as Enel, the Italian power utility, and Eni, the oil and gas multinational.

Cassa Depositi e Prestiti is a founding member of the informal “long-term investors club” along with similar institutions in France and Germany. In July it launched its Italian strategic fund with an investment of €4bn that it plans to expand to €7bn with participation from other sources, including foreign institutional investors.

CIC was set up in 2007 with capital of $200bn and its assets under management now total about $410bn. It says it “maintains a strict commercial orientation and is driven by purely economic and financial interests” and that it is committed to “high professional and ethical standards in corporate governance, transparency and accountability”. China’s embassy in Rome had no immediate comment.

Additional reporting by Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

TINS Realisasikan Biaya Operasional Rp27,8 Miliar, Hingga Agustus 2011

PT Timah Tbk (TINS) hingga akhir Agustus 2011 memiliki cadangan timah mencapai 8.474 ton. Perseroan telah merealisasikan biaya operasinal (opex) senilai Rp27,80 miliar dan biaya belanja modal (capex) sebesar Rp818,11 juta.

Sekretaris Perusahaan TINS, Abrun Abubakar mengatakan kegiatan eksplorasi pada bulan Agustus 2011 lalu sebagian besar masih melanjutkan eksplorasi yang dilaksanakan pada Juli 2011, dimana aktivitasnya berupa bor pemantapan di perairan Bangka Barat yang dilakukan oleh 1 kapal Bor Mitra.

"Untuk pemboran laut di perairan Kundur pada bulan Agustus lalu, belum dilakukan karena rencana repeat order penambahan kontrak bor laut dengan kapal bor mitra sedang dalam proses," ujarnya dalam keterbukaan informasi BEI di Jakarta, Senin (12/9).

Sementara itu untuk pengeboran di darat diarahkan untuk pengeboran pemantapan yaitu berupa penyiapan RK dan pemanduan penambangan tambang darat serta pemantapan untuk persiapan tambang besar.

Abrun juga menambahkan untuk September 2011, pengeboran produksi dan pengeboran pemantapan dilaksanakan oleh 1 Kapal Bor mitra di perairan Bangka Utara, sedangkan untuk kapal Bor Geotin I akan diarahkan untuk melakukan pemboran pemantapan di perairan Bangka Barat dan Timur.

Untuk Kapal Geotin II juga akan bekerja menyelesaikan RK bor pemantapan di kawasan perairan Bangka Utara.

Indofood Sukses Makmur - Looking past the PER - Macquarie Research

Event
§ INDF has recently announced a 2Q11A adjusted NPAT of Rp840bn, down 6.4% on the pcp despite the period benefiting from a low effective tax rate of 19.7% (2Q11A reported earnings grew 8.4% YoY only due to a cessation of goodwill amortisation). The decline was driven by a mean reversion in Bogasari’s operating margins and higher ICBP minority interests, which more than offset a higher contribution from the company’s agribusiness division.
§ We maintain our Underperform recommendation and lower our PT to Rp5,100 from Rp5,400, the former of which is in line with our Rp5,100 NAV-based valuation (which is unchanged, but with a different composition).

Impact
§ Bogasari’s margins mean-revert: INDF’s flour-milling division Bogasari reported a 55.5% YoY decline in 2Q11A earnings, as operating margins fell to 7.0% from the artificially-high 19.1% recorded in the pcp, partly due to higher input costs. Operating margins are now below the division’s 10-year average of 9.5% (FY10A margins were 14.1%). Meanwhile, volumes grew 7.4% YoY relative to a reasonably easy comp period. Our divisional Bogasari valuation utilises an 11.0x PER capitalisation multiple of margins normalised to 9.5%.
§ Marked-to-market (M2M) NAV declines from Rp5,300 to Rp5,100: The recent fall in ICBP’s share price has lowered INDF’s M2M NAV to Rp5,100 from Rp5,300 (utilising a Rp5,300 ICBP price and S$1.44 IFAR price). Our official Rp5,100 NAV valuation adjusts IFAR’s price upwards to S$1.70, in line with Macquarie analyst Conrad Werner’s valuation in his recent initiation, but this has been offset by our Rp5,000 ICBP valuation being below-market.

Earnings and target price revision
§ FY11–12E EPS upgraded by 13.1% and 15.4%, due to the inclusion of Conrad’s IFAR forecasts, which are materially above our previous estimates (and consensus); our recent 4.7% upgrade to our FY11E ICBP numbers (on higher short-term margin assumptions); and lower effective tax rates (23.5%).

Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp5,100 based on an RNAV methodology.
§ Catalyst: 3Q11E result (expected in late October).

Action and recommendation
§ Underperform maintained: INDF continues to trade at a substantial 16.7% premium to its NTA, and we therefore believe the stock remains materially overvalued. We believe investors who wish to get exposure to INDF’s underlying assets are better off investing in ICBP IJ (Rp5,300, Underperform, Rp5,000 PT) and IFAR (IFAR SP, S$1.44, Outperform, S$1.70 PT) directly.
§ While INDF’s 15.5x TTM PER and respective FY11–12E PERs of 14.8x and 14.2x may appear reasonably attractive at first glance, we note that these earnings encapsulate earnings from a mature noodle business (44%), lowvalue flour-milling earnings (21%), and CPO earnings enjoying robust commodity prices (27%). We also note that our FY11–12E EPS growth estimates of 5.9% and 4.2%, respectively, are materially below IDX averages.

Senin, 12 September 2011

Germany May be Ready to Surrender Over Greece (update) - Bloomberg

Germany may be getting ready to give up on Greece.

After almost two years of fighting to contain the region’s debt crisis and providing the biggest share of three European bailouts, Chancellor Angela Merkel is laying the ground for what markets say is almost a sure thing: a Greek default.

“It feels like Germany is preparing itself for a debt default,” Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, said in an interview. “Fatigue is setting in. Germany could be a first mover or other countries could be preparing too.”

Officials in Merkel’s government are debating how to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package and is unable to get a bailout-loan payment, three coalition officials said Sept. 9. The move capped a week of escalating German threats that Greece won’t get the money unless it meets fiscal targets and investors raising bets on a default.

Ring-fencing their banks and a hardening of rescue terms risk isolating Germany and unnerving global policy makers already fretting that the region’s political tussles are roiling markets and threatening growth. Underscoring the tone of weekend talks of Group of Seven finance chiefs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner told Bloomberg Television that European authorities must “demonstrate they have enough political will” to end the crisis. Read More

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall Amid Speculation Greece Approaching Default - Bloomberg

U.S. stock futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will extend last week’s loss, as speculation Germany is preparing for a Greek default spurred turmoil in financial markets worldwide.

S&P 500 futures expiring in December lost 0.8 percent to 1,142.60 at 9:44 a.m. in Tokyo. The benchmark measure of U.S. equities slumped 1.7 percent last week, wiping out its rally since Sept. 2 on the final day amid concern the debt crisis is worsening. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.2 percent today.

Officials in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government are debating how to shore up German banks in the event that Greece fails to meet the budget-cutting terms of its aid package and is unable to get a bailout-loan payment, three coalition officials said Sept. 9. BNP Paribas SA, Societe Generale SA and Credit Agricole SA, France’s largest banks by market value, may have their credit ratings cut by Moody’s Investors Service as soon as this week because of Greek holdings, two people with knowledge of the matter said on Sept. 10.

“There’s so much anxiety among investors,” Richard Sichel, who oversees $1.6 billion as chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said in a telephone interview. “There’s troubling news out of Europe. People are concerned that if Greece defaults, there could be a ripple effect. It’s fear of the unknown. There’s an abundance of bad news overseas and, in the U.S, the economic news has not really been enough to boost confidence.”

Prime Minister George Papandreou, vowing to avoid a default and keep Greece in the euro, approved new measures to help plug a budget gap as resistance builds at home and in Europe to extending more aid to the European Union’s most-indebted nation.

Top Priority

The Greek government’s top priority is “to save the country from bankruptcy,” he said in a Sept. 10 speech in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki. “We will remain in the euro” and this “means difficult decisions,” he said.

The S&P 500 wiped out its weekly advance on Sept. 9 after the European Central Bank said Juergen Stark resigned from the executive board, suggesting policy makers are divided over how to fight the debt crisis. Stocks also fell after President Barack Obama called on Congress to pass a $447 billion plan to boost employment after jobs growth stalled last month.

Between April 29 and Aug. 8, the S&P 500 fell 18 percent amid concern about the European debt crisis and after S&P downgraded the U.S. government’s credit rating. The measure has risen 3.1 percent since then. It closed as low as 1,119.46 on Aug. 8, within 29 points of a bear market, or a 20 percent drop.

Lehman Brothers

The European debt crisis may mimic the events that led to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in September 2008, which spurred the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s, according to Eric Upin, chief investment officer at Makena Capital Management LLC.

“The problems in Europe are the same kind of problems we had in the U.S.,” Upin, who oversees $14.5 billion at the Menlo Park, California-based money manager, said on Sept. 8 at the Bloomberg Global Inflation Conference in New York. “The problems in Europe border on -- we don’t know the magnitude -- a solvency crisis, and there may not be the political system to solve those problems.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Nick Baker in New York at nbaker7@bloomberg.net; Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net

XL AXIATA Oversold quality name BUY - BNPP

CHANGE
Lower earnings forecast; revised TP: IDR6,600
We lower our EBITDA forecast for 2011-13 by 2.5-6.2%. XL’s three-year EBITDA CAGR is now 6.4% (previous: 8.7%). We have also factored in an increase in capex from IDR5t to IDR6t pa in 2011-13, in line with management’s latest guidance. As a result, our DCF-based TP is reduced by 9.0% to IDR6,600, offering 30.7% upside potential.

CATALYST
Lower Voice & SMS revenues but data growth is strong Voice and SMS revenues in 1H11 were below expectations. Key reasons: 1) loss of market share in the low-end prepaid segment, 2) shift in spending towards data, and 3) market maturity. For capex, XL will accelerate the roll-out of its data network coverage and upgrade the
backhaul due to stronger-than-expected growth in the data business.

VALUATION
Trading at lower-end of historical EV/EBITDA trading band XL trades at 5.0x 2012E EV/EBITDA, which is a 5.8% premium to Indosat and a 6.1% discount to Telkom. Valuation is now at the lower-end of its 18-month trading band. Besides attractive valuation, we forecast dividend yield will rise from 2.1% in 2010 to 5.1% in 2013E. Downside risks are intense price competition and short-term cost pressures.

KEY CHART
XL's EV/EBITDA trading band

Key Earnings Drivers & Sensitivity
§ XL's earnings are sensitive to changes in tariffs for its voice and SMS business, which, combined, still constitute 62% of its total revenues for 2012E
§ Increase in competition and deterioration in economic conditions may slow revenue growth for data, which is the main growth driver for XL.

The Risk Experts Long/Short Chart
Our starting point for this page is a recognition of the macro factors that can have a significant impact on stock-price performance, sometimes independently of bottom-up factors.
With our Risk Expert page, we identify the key macro risks that can impact stock performance.
This analysis enhances the fundamental work laid out in the rest of this report, giving investors yet another resource to use in their decision-making process

Lower EBITDA on slower Voice & SMS revenue growth
We have lowered our EBITDA forecast for XL by 2.5% in 2011, 5.7% in 2012 and 6.2% in 2013. This was after factoring in:
a) Steeper 5.0% y-y decline (previous: -3.1% y-y) in Voice revenue to IDR8.04t this year. Our revised
Voice revenue forecasts for 2011, 2012 and 2013 is now 2.0%, 2.6% and 2.3% lower, respectively, than our previous forecast.
b) Slower 12.9% y-y growth (previous: +16.1% y-y) in SMS revenue to IDR3.93t in 2011. Our revised SMS revenue forecast for 2011, 2012 and 2013 is now 2.8%, 5.6% and 5.2% lower, respectively, than our previous forecast.
c) Higher +43.8% y-y growth (previous: +36.8% y-y) in Data & VAS revenues to IDR3.35t in 2011. Our revised Data & VAS revenue forecast for 2011, 2012 and 2013 is now 5.1%, 6.9% and 4.8% higher, respectively, than our previous forecast.
d) Lower EBITDA margin of 51.1% in 2011 (previous: 52.0%), 50.5% in 2012 (previous: 52.9%) and 50.9% in 2013 (previous: 53.5%).

The revision in Voice and SMS revenues follows the company’s weaker-than-expected performance in 1H11, which was impacted by: 1) lost of market share in the low-end prepaid segment, 2) shift in spending towards data, and 3) market maturity. Nevertheless, we expect XL to register stronger growth in Voice and SMS revenues in 2H11 due to higher usage during the festive season and less intense market competition since March-April 2011.
Our lower EBITDA margin forecast is due to higher opex related to the data business, some of which are incurred ahead of the generation of data revenues. For example, XL saw an increase in Value-AddedServices (VAS) cost in 1H11 as it launched various VAS programmes. Also, as XL accelerates the roll-out of its data network, it will have to incur higher rental, installation and utilities costs for new BTS.
Nevertheless, we remain optimistic that XL’s EBITDA margin will remain healthy at above 50% over the next three years. We also stress that the higher opex is to support the strong growth in the data business and is not the same as a situation where there is limited revenue growth potential and margin pressure.
Overall, we forecast XL’s EBITDA will deliver a three-year CAGR of 6.4% (previous: 8.7%), which now ranks it behind Indosat (ISAT IJ, BUY) (three-year CAGR: +7.3%) but ahead of Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ, BUY) (three-year CAGR: +4.4%).

Higher capex to accelerate data network roll-out
During its 2Q11 results conference call, management raised its 2011 capex guidance from IDR5t to IDR6t.
This is due to acceleration in the roll-out of its data network coverage and upgrade of its transmission/backhaul network to support the stronger-than-expected growth in the data business.
Thereafter, we have assumed that capex remains steady at IDR6t pa in 2012-13E.

While we sense an urgency to chase after data revenue opportunities, we believe XL’s management remains cognisant of the returns on its investments. In addition, we believe XL could also achieve additional capex savings in the next 12-24 months by entering into network sharing initiatives with industry players, particularly with regards to building out the transmission/backhaul network.

Revised TP of IDR6,600 offers 30.7% upside potential
On the back of our earnings and capex revisions, we have reduced our DCF-based TP by 9.0% to IDR6,600,which offers 30.7% upside potential. For our DCF calculation, we use a WACC of 10.9% (cost of equity: 14.4%, after-tax cost of debt: 6.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 3.0%. Our revised TP implies a fair 2012 EV/EBITDA of 6.3x.

ASIA-6 WEEKLY FUNDS FLOW FLOW STABILIZING - BNPP

Foreign flow on track to stabilizing
In the past week, more foreign outflow exited Asia-6, recording USD1.8b in outflow on the back of similar outflow of USD1.9bn in the preceding week. The continued outflow was expected given the elevated levels of the VIX and the uncertainty clouding policy outlook in the US. YTD inflow as of last week to Asia-6 is now firmly in the red, recording an outflow of USD11.8bn. The 25-week average foreign equity flow that we monitor closely has begun to stabilize, rising from -USD263.1m to -USD239.5m. (Exhibit 1) BNP now views a US recession as more likely than not. Compared to the Fed’s current GDP forecasts in 2H11, our growth forecasts are more pessimistic and our US economists are expectant of a QE3 announcement at some point
in 2H11 if the outlook continues to deteriorate. This would be supportive of a floor to equities from now till then, with more equity inflow to Asia if QE3 is passed. Meanwhile, the VIX has retreated to 35.6 at last Friday’s close from a high of 43.1 in the previous week. Notably, the VIX fell last Friday following Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole despite the lack of specifics on further policy steps and that fiscal policy will have to play a larger role going forward. The latest moderation in the VIX points to welcome relief from the wave of foreign outflow.

Korea and Taiwan flow momentum stabilizing
From a flow momentum perspective, short term momentum indicators show signs of stabilizing especially Korea and Taiwan. Taiwan ST momentum indicators are pointing to foreign flows bottoming out with Taiwan as the only country to record an inflow (albeit small) of USD64.3m and the TAIEX rose 1.4% w-w last week. Korea’s foreign outflow is also slowing, recording USD296m compared to an average outflow of
USD855.3m since May-11. India, Indonesia and Thailand on the other hand, appear some way from a rebound in foreign flow, as ST and LT momentum indicators are on a downtrend. In the past week, Thailand experienced heavy outflow of USD611m (more than four times its average outflow since-04), exacerbated by the BOT hiking the key policy rate.