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Senin, 12 September 2011

ICBP:Volume pressure - Mandiri

ICBP posted 1H11 net profit of Rp990bn (23.7% yoy; 28.4% qoq), which slightly above of our expectation (52.8%), but in-line with consensus (51.7%). Further YoY contraction in its instant noodle volume (-6.7%), however, reiterates our initial concern over consumption purchasing power that was lagging behind industry-wide ASP increase in 1Q11. We still see imminent risk over inflationary pressure post to Eid lebaran holiday that may continue giving pressure on purchasing power. We sliced our FY11F instant noodle sales volume assumption by 8%%, led to earnings cut by 2.5%. Maintain Neutral on ICBP.

1H11 results slightly above our expectation, but in-line with consensus. ICBP 1H11 revenue grew by 5.7% yoy to Rp9.4tn, as attributable to growth in overall business segment, notably noodle segment which grew significantly by 68% yoy. The growth in noodle was mainly bolstered by ASP increase (+7-8%) in 1Q11, despite of sales volume decline by 6.7% yoy. GPM corrected to 25.7% (vs. 1H10 26.8%) as increase in raw materials. Yet, this was offset by easing selling expense, thus maintained EBIT margin at 14.0%. All is translated to bottom-line of Rp990bn, which grew by 23.7% yoy.

Restrained purchasing power results in volume sales decline. Further yoy contraction in instant noodle sales volume evidenced a similar trend of what occurred back in 1H108. During that time, the company increased ASP by twice that simultaneous to drop in sales by 10% yoy. Only that this year, which also indicated by ICBP, the pressure was combined with crops failure in some major areas in Java that restrained purchasing power.

No room for another price increase, in our view. We see volume should rebound in 2H, as a result of Eid lebaran season and flat ASP towards year end. We don’t see much room for the company to tickle the price higher, given easing wheat flour price trend and slow pace in volume sales i n the previous semester that sho

Inflationary risk lingers, stay Neutral. Yet, risk lingers over inflationary pressure post to Eid lebaran season that may result sales volume rebound to be below expectation. We sliced our FY11F instant sales noodle sales volume by 8%, led to revised-down of our FY11F earnings by 8%. We maintain Neutral on ICBP with fair value of Rp5,398/share. Currently the stock trades at PE12F 13.8x and PBV12F 2.5x.

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