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Senin, 12 September 2011


Foreign flow on track to stabilizing
In the past week, more foreign outflow exited Asia-6, recording USD1.8b in outflow on the back of similar outflow of USD1.9bn in the preceding week. The continued outflow was expected given the elevated levels of the VIX and the uncertainty clouding policy outlook in the US. YTD inflow as of last week to Asia-6 is now firmly in the red, recording an outflow of USD11.8bn. The 25-week average foreign equity flow that we monitor closely has begun to stabilize, rising from -USD263.1m to -USD239.5m. (Exhibit 1) BNP now views a US recession as more likely than not. Compared to the Fed’s current GDP forecasts in 2H11, our growth forecasts are more pessimistic and our US economists are expectant of a QE3 announcement at some point
in 2H11 if the outlook continues to deteriorate. This would be supportive of a floor to equities from now till then, with more equity inflow to Asia if QE3 is passed. Meanwhile, the VIX has retreated to 35.6 at last Friday’s close from a high of 43.1 in the previous week. Notably, the VIX fell last Friday following Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole despite the lack of specifics on further policy steps and that fiscal policy will have to play a larger role going forward. The latest moderation in the VIX points to welcome relief from the wave of foreign outflow.

Korea and Taiwan flow momentum stabilizing
From a flow momentum perspective, short term momentum indicators show signs of stabilizing especially Korea and Taiwan. Taiwan ST momentum indicators are pointing to foreign flows bottoming out with Taiwan as the only country to record an inflow (albeit small) of USD64.3m and the TAIEX rose 1.4% w-w last week. Korea’s foreign outflow is also slowing, recording USD296m compared to an average outflow of
USD855.3m since May-11. India, Indonesia and Thailand on the other hand, appear some way from a rebound in foreign flow, as ST and LT momentum indicators are on a downtrend. In the past week, Thailand experienced heavy outflow of USD611m (more than four times its average outflow since-04), exacerbated by the BOT hiking the key policy rate.

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