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Senin, 12 September 2011

ASIA-6 WEEKLY FUND FLOW ELEVATED VIX LEVELS - BNPP

Elevated VIX levels – not good for flows near term
Foreign flow re-entered Asia-6, recording USD2.0b in inflow breaking seven weeks of outflow amounting to USD18.7b. YTD inflow to Asia-6 remains in the red, recording an outflow of USD9.9b. The 25-week average foreign equity flow that we monitor closely continues to improve but is still in negative territory, rising from –USD240.3m to –USD161.4m. (Exhibit 1) While foreign inflow was positive last week, the indices performed much better than the level of inflow suggests, implying relatively strong domestic buying. The
MSCI Asia-ex JP index rose 4.6% w-w, marking the largest rise since QE2 was implemented in November 2010 inducing a 5.2% w-w gain.

Our economists continue to expect a continued slew of slowing economic data over the next few months. The silver lining in the wake of weakening economic data is that it strengthens the case for QE3 which our US economists are expecting either later this month or in November. This would be supportive of a floor to equities from now until then, with more equity inflow to Asia if QE3 is passed. The VIX moderated to a level of 30-31 by Thursday but rose to 33.9 on Friday following weak US payroll data. While the VIX is still falling from a high of 43.1 two weeks ago, it should be noted that the VIX remains elevated and foreign flow sentiment at this stage is still extremely fragile. (Exhibit 2) In the coming week, we expect renewed worries on the global economic front to put a drag on foreign flow to Asia.

Korea and Taiwan flow momentum stabilizing From a flow momentum perspective, short term momentum indicators continue to show signs of stabilizing especially in Korea and Taiwan. In the past week, the two largest foreign inflow came from these two
countries, recording USD1.2bn and USD452.2m respectively. North Asian indices performed spectacularly last week, with India clinching top spot of a 6.1% w-w gain despite a lack of foreign inflow. Wrapping up August flow, Asia-6 recorded USD15.5b in outflow with Taiwan comprising 42.4% of the outflow.

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