Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Jumat, 05 Agustus 2011

U.S. Stocks Sink as Economic Fear Drives S&P 500 to Biggest Drop Since ’09 - Bloomberg

U.S. stocks plunged, driving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the biggest decline since February 2009, as concern the global economy is weakening prompted a global rout.

Only three out of 500 stocks in the benchmark measure of American equities rose. Losses exceeded 10 percent for 13 of the companies including Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (ANR) and Gap Inc. (GPS), which fell after the retailer’s sales missed estimates. All 10 S&P 500 groups slumped, led by losses topping 5.3 percent for energy, material and industrial shares. Chevron Corp. (CVX) and Alcoa Inc. (AA) fell more than 5.7 percent as Japan sold its currency, driving down commodities priced in the dollar.

The S&P 500 decreased 4.8 percent to an eight-month low of 1,200.07 at 4 p.m. in New York. It has retreated 11 percent since July 22, the biggest loss over the same amount of time since March 9, 2009, when the equity bull market began. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 512.76 points, or 4.3 percent, to 11,383.68 today, erasing its 2011 gain. Almost 14 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges at 4:27 p.m., 90 percent higher than the three-month average.

“It’s unbelievable,” David Joy, Boston-based chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc., said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $693 billion in assets. “The emotional aspect of this is ticking higher. It’s left everybody with this mindset that things are not good. The situation in Europe is getting everyone concerned. We had the impact of the Japan intervention in the currency market. The flight-to-quality trade is going to pick up.”
Global Stocks Tumble

Global stocks had their biggest one-day rout since March 2009. A measure of global equities fell more than 10 percent from this year’s high in May, entering a correction amid concern about a recession. The MSCI All-Country World Index of stocks in developed and emerging markets slid 4.1 percent to 311.60, falling 13 percent from its May 2 high.

Stocks tumbled from Hong Kong to London and Sao Paulo as the yen dropped by the most since October 2008 against the dollar after Japan sold its currency to stem gains that threaten the nation’s economic recovery. The euro fell against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said policy makers will offer banks additional cash to ease tensions in financial markets.

Trichet indicated the ECB is reluctant to shelve further rate hikes even as investors reduce bets on the ECB adding to its two rate moves in 2011. While acknowledging a “particularly high” level of uncertainty, rates are still “accommodative” and inflation risks “remain on the upside,” he said.
‘Gloomy’ Mood

“The mood right now is gloomy,” Mike Ryan, the New York- based chief investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $774 billion. “The burden of proof is for better data that show the economy is not falling into recession.”

U.S. stocks rose yesterday amid speculation the Federal Reserve may consider another economic stimulus program to avert a recession. The Fed finished its second round of so-called quantitative easing, nicknamed “QE2” by investors, at the end of June. The program helped propel a rally of as much as 28 percent in the S&P 500 after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke foreshadowed the plan on Aug. 27.

Stock-futures maintained losses before the open of regular trading as a report showed that initial claims for unemployment insurance payments in the U.S. fell last week to a level that shows limited improvement in the labor market. Employers added 85,000 workers in July, economists project a Labor Department report to show tomorrow, failing to reduce a jobless rate that’s holding above 9 percent.
‘Crucial’ Report

“Tomorrow’s payroll report is crucial,” UBS’s Ryan said. “If we see another disappointment, the stock market will have significant downside from here.”

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the S&P 500, soared 35 percent, the most since February 2007, to 31.66. The S&P 500 moved in a 4.8 percentage-point range between today’s intraday high and low, the widest range since a 20-minute rout on May 6, 2010, erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares before prices rebounded. Today’s swing is more than double the 1.59 percentage-point average range in the past four weeks.
‘Not a Flash Crash’

“It’s not a flash crash,” Michael Shaoul, chairman of Marketfield Asset Management in New York, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $1 billion. “It’s much more orderly and I don’t see any weird prints like we saw that day in individual issues. It’s a plain and simple liquidation of equities and commodities.”

Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), the world’s largest custody bank, will charge clients a 13 basis point fee for “extraordinarily high” cash deposits. A basis point is one- hundredth of a percent.

“We have seen a growing level of deposits on our balance sheet from clients seeking a safe haven in light of the global interest rate and credit environment,” the company said today in an e-mailed statement.

The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most-tied to economic growth tumbled 6.7 percent as all of its 30 stocks retreated. The Dow Jones Transportation Average of 20 stocks, considered a proxy for the economy, slumped 5.1 percent.

“The market’s essentially pricing in a greater risk of a recession,” New York-based Kevin Shacknofsky, who helps manage about $6 billion for Alpine Mutual Funds, said in a telephone interview. “It’s the cyclical, economically sensitive parts of the economy that are getting hurt the most.”
Commodity Shares Slump

Energy and raw-material shares led the declines in the S&P 500, falling at least 6.6 percent. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. oil company, slid 5.8 percent to $96.84. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, sank 9.3 percent to $12.94.

Gap decreased 12 percent to $16.98. The retailer said July same-store sales fell 5 percent, compared with analysts’ estimates for a decline of 0.6 percent.

Only three stocks in the S&P 500 rose today. Motorola Mobility Holdings Inc., the handset maker spun off from parent Motorola Inc., rallied 3.6 percent to $23.09. Vulcan Materials Co., the producer of crushed stone, gained 1.6 percent to $33.54. PG&E Corp., the San Francisco-based utility owner, advanced 0.4 percent to $40.65.

The rout since July 22 dragged the S&P 500’s valuation to 13.2 times reported earnings, the cheapest level since April 2009, a month after the bull market began, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Laszlo Birinyi, one of the first investors to recommend buying stocks when the bull market began, said he remains optimistic about U.S. equities even after the biggest nine-day slump since March 2009.

“Our view continues that we’re in a long-term bull market, and in long-term bull markets you have downdrafts,” he said in a Bloomberg Radio interview today. “Everything that we’ve built our bullish case on continues to exist.”

Recession Seen Looming as Jobless Benefits End - CNBC

The likely loss of unemployment benefits for 3.71 million Americans in a few months will only add to an economy edging ever closer to recession, according to analysis that puts the chances of another downturn at better than 1 in 3.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists say the ending of benefits for the so-called "99ers"—those who have exceeded their normal benefit allotment and are on an emergency compensation program through the end of the year—will slow the economy even further. The term comes from a previous extension to 99 weeks of eligibility for benefits.

When the long-term unemployed hit the same point several months ago, Congress stepped in with an extension. But that may not come now.

"We do not expect them to get extended," BofAML economist Joshua Dennerlein wrote in a note to clients. "This will act as a hit to income, hurting consumption growth in the first half of the year."

More importantly, this "hit" comes at a time when BofAML thinks the economy—already battered by rising unemployment and a Depression-level housing market—is very fragile. Another shock, the bank argues, could send it into recession

In fact, chances of the U.S. economy entering another recession, the firm says, are now 35 percent, about double from a forecast it issued during the spring. Recession is often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth.

"It would take a modest worsening in financial conditions, falling oil prices and rising unemployment. None of these are extreme scenarios," economist Michelle Meyer writes in a separate note. "We argue that after a series of sucker punches earlier this year, the economy is only one shock away from falling into recession."

The good news is that the recession likely would be "mild since the economy already is very lean," specifically citing the 8.8 million jobs sliced during the previous recession and only 1.8 million rehires.

Ominously, though, a recession could trigger a number of unexpected events, with Meyer specifically citing "a muni crisis" where state and local governments, which have been cutting costs aggressively, would face more intense pressure from a new recession that could lead to bond defaults. This is in part the scenario put forth from banking analyst Meredith Whitney, who has been widely reviled for her forecast of a wave of muni defaults.

Meyer said her economic team's "baseline"—or most probable—forecast is no recession. But growth will remain slow and "still feel like a recession to many."

The forecast falls in line with others who believe a second full recession—rather than a double-dip—is on the way or in fact already here.

"It is evident that we will be going into another recession—I think at this point it's only a question of whether it has already begun—with the levels of output, employment and income all lower now than they were prior to the last contraction phase," Gluskin Sheff economist and strategist David Rosenberg said in a note.

Rosenberg said he has "pegged a U.S. recession as a virtual certainty" and warned investors to plan accordingly.

He recommends a mix of risk hedging—shorting low-quality and buying high-quality stocks —and using an income-equity distribution with low correlations to the stock market. He also backs high-yielding corporate debt from companies with solid balance sheet, gold and mining stocks, and commodities, particularly raw food and energy.

"The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession," he said. "That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction—cash should not have to be an option."

Investors were fleeing to safety during Thursday's market rout, pushing bond prices sharply higher and the stock market off more than 3 percent as talk spread of a looming recession. The Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX 1200.07 -60.27 (-4.78%) ] officially entered correction phase of a 10 percent decline from its recent high, although it recovered somewhat later in the day.

"Price declines of 5 percent or more aren't reason enough to signal recession, as there have been eight times as many of these as there have been recessions since WW II," Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P, said in a note. "But unrelenting price declines that are accompanied by weaker-than-expected GDP, ISM (manufacturing) and jobs data add to existing concerns."

Those concerns are manifesting themselves in portfolios, where a return to diversification and stock picking is likely to occur after more than two years of a highly correlated market where asset classes and individual stocks all moved in unison.

"Our advice in the last couple of months has been really pushing the notion of diversification and rebalancing which sounds like plain old vanilla advice," Liz Ann Sonders, chief strategist at Charles Schwab, said in an interview. "Correlations are starting to come down. There's more differentiation now."

Sonders said she too worries about the economy but believes the U.S. is more likely to muddle through than hit an actual recession.

"On our most optimistic day we didn't see anything close to robust growth," said Sonders, who in previous interviews had speculated a return to a "Goldilocks" economy where growth was not too fast or not too slow. "No matter how you slice it, it's not a robust picture."

VIX Surges Most Since February 2007 Amid ‘Panic’ of Global Stocks Plunge - Bloomberg

U.S. options prices soared the most in four years as investors scrambled to buy protection against greater stock-market losses as worsening economic data sent stocks to the longest losing streak since the bull market began.

The VIX, as the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index is known, jumped 35 percent to 31.66 at 4:15 p.m. in New York, the highest close since July 2010 and the biggest jump since Feb. 27, 2007. The index measures the cost of using options as insurance against declines in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which fell 4.8 percent and had the biggest nine-day drop since the March 2009 start of the bull market.

“It’s just panic out there,” Andrew Keene, an independent options trader at the CBOE, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Everyone is moving into cash. People are selling everything.”

Today’s surge is the largest since the gauge soared 64 percent in February 2007, the most in its 21-year history -- a jump sparked by the biggest rout in four years that wiped out about $600 billion in market value in a day. The S&P 500 rallied 12 percent in the next seven months to peak at 1,565.15, then plunged 57 percent to a 12-year low in March 2009.

Global stocks had their biggest one-day rout since March 2009. A measure of global equities fell more than 10 percent from this year’s high in May, entering its first correction in more than a year, amid concern about a recession. The MSCI All- Country World Index of stocks in developed and emerging markets slid 4.1 percent to 311.60, falling 13 percent from its May 2 high.
‘It’s Fear’

“It’s fear,” Luke Rahbari, a VIX options trader at Stutland Equities LLC in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “There’s definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market, whether you want to talk about European banks, European sovereign debt, slowing growth in the U.S.”

All VIX futures expiring this year rose above 24. August futures jumped 25 percent to 27.45, the highest level among all listed contracts, while September futures climbed 19 percent to 25.90 and January’s rose 8.1 percent to 25.35. The most-active VIX options were August 25 calls, followed by August 30 calls.

Europe’s benchmark gauge of stock-market volatility rose for a seventh day, its longest rising streak since October 2008. The VStoxx Index (V2X), which measures the cost of protecting against a decline in shares on the Euro Stoxx 50 Index, surged 17 percent today to 34.63 for its biggest jump since March 16.

The S&P 500 moved in a 4.8 percent range between today’s intraday high and low, the widest range since a 20-minute rout on May 6, 2010, erased $862 billion from the value of U.S. shares before prices rebounded. Today’s swing is around triple the 1.63 percentage point average range in the past four weeks.

“People have had three years of being told by Washington and the news media that we are in a recovery,” Doreen Mogavero, chief executive officer of Mogavero, Lee & Co., said in a telephone interview from the New York Stock Exchange. “Now to find out that we are not only not recovering but that growth is slowing, things are reversing, there’s going to be a double dip, ten more years of austerity, it’s completely disconcerting to the average investor.”

Obama, Bernanke out of ammo to boost jobs, growth - Reuters

The United States has a jobs problem and there's not a lot President Barack Obama or Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke can do about it.

In the face of rising risks of a recession that could imperil his re-election chances next year, Democrat Obama wants Congress to extend a payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits that are due to expire in December.
But the Republican-controlled House of Representatives is emboldened by budget concessions it made Obama swallow to lift the country's debt limit this week and he has little political leverage to win significant fresh spending to aid growth.
"Obama does not have much presidential persuasion left. He is running out of capital," said James Thurber, of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies.

Obama's political opponents have been openly scornful of the impact of two previous stimulus packages, which were accompanied by extraordinary measures by the Federal Reserve to kick-start the U.S. economy.
"It seems we've thrown everything at it. We've had QE1 and QE2, Stimulus 1 and Stimulus 2, and the unemployment rate is still 9.2 percent," said John Makin, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "Maybe there are just not many options here at this point," he said.

World stock markets shuddered after disappointing U.S. growth and manufacturing numbers and investors rushed to buy long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds in a move that suggests deep concerns about the economic outlook.
Data on Friday is expected to confirm the U.S. unemployment rate remained stuck at 9.2 percent in July.
Lawrence Summers, a top Obama adviser until last year, wrote in a Reuters column on Tuesday the odds of another U.S. recession were 1 in 3. Goldman Sachs has said a slight tick up in the unemployment rate could provide a strong recession signal.

Obama signed a hard-won compromise on Tuesday to raise the $14.3 trillion U.S. debt limit in return for measures that will reduce deficits by at least $2.1 trillion over 10 years.
Joel Prakken of the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers estimates an extension of the payroll tax cut could add about 0.25 percentage points to U.S. growth next year.
Republicans fought hard to cut spending but are open to tax cuts, and the White House expects bipartisan support when Obama advances the idea in the coming months.
But analysts are skeptical it will make much difference for an economy that is having trouble gaining traction.

"A major option is extending the payroll tax cut. We did that in December, and the economy grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate over the first half of the year," said Makin.
But the economic benefit of extending the payroll tax cut will be curbed by the government spending cuts agreed to Obama, and a weak economy will make hitting deficit-reduction targets that much more difficult.
JPMorgan's Michael Feroli estimates fiscal policy will subtract about 1-3/4 percentage points from growth next year as spending cuts kick in, if the earlier payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance extensions expire on schedule.
"Given that GDP growth has been 1.6 percent over the past four quarters when fiscal policy has been much less of a drag, this doesn't bode well for next year," he said.
JPMorgan has cut its first half 2012 growth forecast to 2 percent from 2.5 pct due to fiscal drag.

Bernanke also seems to have few options at his disposal.
The Fed is not expected to announce an extension of its so-called quantitative easing, or QE, measures to stimulate economic activity at a policy meeting on Tuesday, despite the sense of gloom descending on the economy.
If push comes to shove, the Fed would likely look to cement its promise of keeping in place a loose monetary policy for a long period. It might even consider shifting the composition of its Treasury note holdings toward longer maturities, an option Bernanke has raised as a way to give the economy some relief.
"Someone should do something. Given that the Congress has declared itself unwilling to provide support for the economy, the Fed will feel pressure to try to do what it can," said Barry Eichengreen, an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

However, the Fed's options hardly add up to a game-changing play to dramatically improve the U.S. outlook.
"Everyone is really looking to the Fed to support the economy, and I think (Bernanke) would realize that you could only do so much with monetary policy," said Mike Knebel at Portland, Oregon-based Ferguson Wellman Capital Management.
The Fed's scope for more easing of monetary policy has been narrowed by a rise in core inflation, which bottomed at 0.9 percent in December but has since hit 1.3 percent.

As Obama signed the debt deal, which averted a devastating default and reduced the risk to the country's AAA credit rating, he promised more ideas to boost hiring soon.

The White House declined to say what he had in mind or when he would lay out suggestions. But Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an opinion piece in the Washington Post that Congress could make space to fund a payroll tax cut extension by "locking in" long-term budget savings.
With lawmakers out of town for a summer recess, no major initiative is likely before September, although Obama does plan a Midwestern bus tour from August 15 to August 17 to talk up jobs.

When it comes, the odds favor small steps that allow Obama to show he is taking action, without disturbing investors.
"There is a good case to be made for additional stimulus, but given our fiscal situation it has to be targeted to create more jobs," said Karen Dynan, a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Euro zone policymakers fail to extinguish market fire - Reuters

European policymakers tried to turn a more powerful fire hose on the euro zone debt crisis on Thursday but financial markets were unimpressed with their response.

The European Central Bank resumed buying government bonds after a four-month break and announced new longer-term funding for liquidity-starved banks. But after a brief hiccup, Italian and Spanish bond yields resumed the climb toward danger levels.
The executive European Commission urged holidaying euro zone leaders to consider swiftly boosting the size of their financial rescue fund, but was promptly rebuffed by the Germans and Dutch.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank's controversial program of buying government paper in an effort to stabilize markets, inactive since March, was ongoing.
"You will see what we do," he told a news conference.
Traders duly saw the ECB enter the market as Trichet spoke but an EU monetary source said purchases were limited to Irish and Portuguese bonds and there were no plans to buy bonds of other nations.

Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields, which had fallen in anticipation of ECB action, rose again in volatile trading and safe haven German Bund futures jumped.
Traders said they were not convinced the bond-buying would be effective in stopping contagion to the euro area's third and fourth largest economies.
"The ECB may have missed an opportunity to act more convincingly. The key now is to see whether and in which size the ECB actually intervenes in the Spanish and Italian bond markets," economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg Bank said.

Trichet acknowledged the decision was not unanimous, but an "overwhelming majority" supported it. That revived memories of a damaging split on the governing council last year, when then German Bundesbank chief Axel Weber publicly opposed the policy.
It also raised questions about whether the ECB was waiting for Rome and Madrid to take extra fiscal adjustment measures before it will buy their bonds, or whether the central bank was unable to agree on widening the scope of bond-buying to them.
Trichet said the central bank would conduct a special six-month liquidity operation and keep providing unlimited short-term funds to banks at least until next January.
Several banks in Greece, Portugal and Ireland remain totally shut out of market funding and some Spanish and Italian lenders are also dependent on ECB funds.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a letter to EU leaders: "I... urge a rapid re-assessment of all elements related to the EFSF, and concomitantly the ESM, in order to ensure that they are equipped with the means for dealing with contagious risk."
In a quick put-down, a finance ministry spokesman in EU paymaster Germany said it was unclear how re-opening the debate about financial backstops so soon after last month's emergency summit could help calm markets.
The Dutch Finance Ministry also said the focus should be on implementing the summit decisions not reopening the discussion.

The European Financial Stability Facility, which has bailed out Ireland and Portugal and will run a planned second package for Greece, has a maximum capacity of 440 billion euros. It will be replaced in 2013 by a 500 billion euro permanent European Stability Mechanism.

The 17 euro zone leaders left the size unchanged when they agreed on July 21 to widen the funds' role to buying bonds in the secondary market and providing precautionary credit lines to states under pressure on credit markets.
Market analysts and economists say the EFSF would need to be at least doubled and perhaps trebled to pre-empt attacks on larger economies such as Italy and Spain.
Madrid sold 3.3 billion euros ($3.14 billion) in short-term bonds earlier on Thursday but had to pay a sharply higher borrowing cost.
Across the globe, Japanese authorities acted to weaken a strong yen, joining Switzerland in efforts to tame currencies buoyed by safe-haven demand from investors fretting about the health of the global economy and the euro zone's debt woes.
Trichet said those moves were not part of any concerted multilateral policy approach.

Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti voiced frustration at the pace of the ECB response to a selloff of Italian stocks and bonds over the last three weeks.
"I note that the Bank of Japan today launched quantitative easing and the Swiss central bank cut rates to zero. We are waiting for (ECB) decisions if possible, but desirable," he said.

Tremonti said when he talked to Asian investors, they said: "If your central bank doesn't buy your bonds, why should we buy them?"
Asked whether Italy was taking adequate steps to strengthen its public finances, Trichet said it was necessary to frontload structural measures. A 48 billion euro austerity program passed by parliament last month delays the brunt of spending cuts until after a 2013 general election.

The chief European economist of credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's said only the ECB could act swiftly to stabilize battered euro zone sovereigns.
"Markets are still moving so we need someone to intervene," S&P's Jean-Michel Six said. "The only effective fireman capable of rushing out of the fire station at top speed is the European Central Bank, which has played an admirable role since the start of the crisis to calm markets."

He told France-Inter radio that until a contagion-fighting plan adopted by euro zone leaders last month came into effect, which requires parliamentary approval in some countries, the ECB had to play an interim role.

There is strong opposition to the bond-buying policy among guardians of central banking orthodoxy in Germany who argue it compromises the core mission of fighting inflation. German Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann broke off his holiday to attend Thursday's ECB policy-setting meeting.

The ECB bought 76 billion euros of sovereign bonds, believed to be only Greek, Irish and Portuguese, to stabilize markets last year but critics said the Securities Market Program had only limited, short-term impact and did not prevent any of those countries requiring EU/IMF bailouts.

Japan sold one trillion yen ($12.6 billion) and its central bank eased monetary policy on Thursday to try to push down the yen against the dollar and euro.
Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano said policymakers of major economies needed to discuss currencies at either Group of Seven or Group of 20 level -- the first official call for multilateral action since twin crises over U.S. and euro zone debt became acute last month.

Official sources in several G7 countries said on Wednesday they were not aware of any move so far to involve the G7 or G20, but that France, which holds the chair of both groups this year, might consult those forums if the turmoil persists.
In addition to Italy and Spain, some investors are becoming jittery about the finances of France, the euro zone's second biggest economy. The spread of 10-year French government bonds above German Bunds hit a euro lifetime high of 0.81 percentage point on Wednesday.

Any major expansion of the euro zone bailout fund would put a greater financial burden on Paris, the second largest contributor to the fund, and could push up its yields further.

In another pointer to spreading concern, Britain's Financial Services Authority has asked UK banks to detail their exposure to Belgian sovereign debt, adding it to a list of countries with debt problems including Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, the finance director of Lloyds bank said.

GJTL, Proton in talks for tire supply - Insider Stories

Tire manufacturer PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk has an opportunity to supply 4,000 tires to Malaysian car maker Proton. Gajah Tunggal, maker of GT Tire, will initiate to supply tires in November, in line with agreement made between Gajah Tunggal and Proton in August this year.

"We are in final discussion. We are optimistic to conclude agreement with Proton," said Director Catharina Widjaja as quoted by Investor Daily today.
If Gajah Tunggal could secure the agreement, Gajah Tunggal will supply 4,000 tires a month to Proton up to January 2012. Afterward, the supply will be boosted to 22,000 tires a month. However, Catharina declined to explain further detail about the agreement.

Oil Falls to US$87, Energy & Metals Stocks Tumbled - The Indonesia Today

Crude oil tumbled 4.41% to US$87.88 per barrel on Nymex Thursday (Aug 4) as Wall Street lost ground.

The substantial drop of crude oil triggered the biggest corrections of energy stocks. Xstrata, the world's largest thermal coal exporter, slashed 8.52% in London, while Peabody, the world's largest producer in private sector, dropped 6.7% midday in New York. Consol Energy was even worse, collapsed 9.2%.

Oil and gas stocks also dropped substantially with Chevron lost 4.1%, while Shell and Total conceded 5% and 4.2% respectively. Anadarko crashed 6%, while BP dropped 4%.

Glencore closed lower by 8.2% in London, while Rio Tinto slashed 6.8%. In New York, Freeport McMoRan dropped 4.92%, while Teck Resources tumbled 5.6%.

Metals ended mostly lower in London Thursday, with tin dropped 3.04% to US$25,500, while copper fell 3.36% to US$9,355 per ton. Nickel, however, only slipped 0.67% to US$23,645.

Mandiri cs win US$1 bio Antam's deal - Insider Stories

The state-controlled nickel and gold miner PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam) finally has sent a mandate letter to consortium of lenders led by PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) which arrange and seek US$1 billion financing for Halmahera's ferronickel project at Buli, North Maluku.

A source close to the deal said a consortium led by PT Bank Mandiri Tbk has won the financing deal.

"The financing structure will be US$350 million through the issuance of rupiah denominated bonds and the remaining of project financing," the source said.
Previously anout 26 banks, the sources said, had set up three consortium and one individual foreign bank. The consortium is led by Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara Indonesia, Bank Central Asia, and the invidual bank Barclays Capital.

Bank Mandiri teamed up with Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, and Standard Chartered Bank.
Bank Negara Indonesia led several members such as Bahana Securities, ANZ Bank, BNP Paribas, Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, CIMB, and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.
Bank Central Asia led a consortium of Credit Agricole, DBS Bank, HSBC, and JPMorgan Securities.

Barclays is stand-alone bank has also proposed its financing structure.
During the proposals submission, one consortium led by BCA was late to submit their proposals.

"Antam might drop the BCA consortium. But it depends on Antam. But, if BCA was dropped, five banks would be unable to proceed the beauty contest."
Antam expects to complete the project financing, select EPC contractor, and start of construction at end of this year.
The company aims to spend US$369 million of capital expenditure this year, consisting of routine capex of US$52 million and US$317 million development capex.

Jasa marga bidik proyek tol penghubung BRR-Ciawi - Bisnis Indonesia

BANDUNG: PT Jasa Sarana membidik proyek pembangunan ruas tol penghubung antara tol Bogor Ring Road dan Ciawi-Sukabumi sepanjang 20 kilometer.

Direktut Utama Jasa Sarana Soko Sandi Buwono mengatakan perusahaan sedang mematangkan rencana untuk melakukan pra-studi kelayakan jalan tol penghubung tersebut dengan sebuah pengembang properti.

“Jarak penghubung kedua tol itu sekitar 20 km. Jika hasil studinya rampung akan kami usulkan kepada pemerintah supaya masuk program pembangunan jalan tol,” katanya kepada Bisnis, hari ini.

Soko menilai pembangunan tol pada jalur penghubung antara Darmaga dan Ciawi tersebut sangat penting. Apalagi, kata dia, kawasan di sepanjang kawasan itu diproyeksikan menjadi kawasan pertumbuhan baru.

“Jalur itu sangat layak dan perlu dikembangkan lebih lanjut. Jika kami mampu mampu menyelesaikan studi tersebut dan disetujui pemerintah tentu kami akan mendapatkan prioritas,” katanya.

Saat ini, Jasa Sarana bersama-sama PT Jasa Marga Tbk memiliki anak perusahaan PT Marga Sarana Jabar yang sedang menyelesaikan jalan tol Bogor Ring Road sepanjang 11 km.

Pada kesempatan yang sama, perusahaan juga memiliki saham PT Trans Jabar Toll yang sedang merealisasikan pembangunan jalan tol Ciawi-Sukabumi sepanjang 54 km.

Soko mengemukakan pengusahaan jalan tol tersebut sebetulnya sudah berlangsung sejak 1997 lalu. Akan tetapi, realisasi oleh pemegang konsesi sebelumnya berjalan lambat karena sejumlah persoalan.

Truba Alam returns net profit in 1H - Insider Stories

PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk (TRUB) returned to post net profit of Rp1.77 billion in the first half of this year on the back of net other incomes.
Truba Alam reported Rp14.40 billion net loss in the first half of last year. Net other incomes surged to Rp17.53 billion from Rp5.04 billion.

However, Truba was still in operating loss of Rp469.08 million, narrowed from Rp4.74 billion operating loss as higher cost of goods revenue of 2.84%. Truba's revenue increased 2.84% to Rp601.98 billion from Rp585.35 billion.

Pressures Continue on Energy & Mining Stocks - The Indonesia Today

Energy and mining stocks continue their substantial corrections worldwide Thursday on worries about world economy. Crude oil also declines further to US$91 per barrel on Nymex.

Anglo American and Xstrata dropped 4.37% and 6% respectively in London, while Rio Tinto slashed 6.42%. Freeport McMoRan opened lower by 2.55% in New York, while BHP slipped 0.22% in Sydney.

Glencore lost 2% in Hong Kong, and opened lower by 2.54% in London, while Teck Resources drops 3.23% in New York.

Earlier in Asia, Shenhua lost 1.06% in Hong Kong, while Straits Asia conceded 3.5% in Singapore. Peabody also opened substantially lower by 3.15% in New York. In Jakarta, Bumi Resources, Berau Coal, Borneo Lumbung, Indika, Indo Tambangraya were all ended in lower ground.

In the oil and gas sector, ExxonMobil and Chevron opened lower by 1.45% and 2.11% in New York, while BP down 1.47% in London. CNOOC and PetroChina ended lower by 2.36% and 1.29% in Hong Kong, while Santos lost 2.45% in Sydney.

In Jakarta, Energi Mega Persada conceded 5.88%, the same with PGAS, while Medco down 1%.

Sentul City rights issue approved - Insider Stories

Shareholders meeting yesterday approved a Rp333.98 billion non preemptive rights of property developer PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL).
The company plans to issue 2.85 billion of new shares at Rp117 per share. The proceed will be used by Sentul City to acquire PR Aftanesia Raya and additional working capital.

Finance Director Pesta Uli Sitanggang said the company has set the rights issue at Rp117 per share. But, Pesta Uli declined to mention the standby buyers.
"We have several standby buyers both from our shareholders and external parties. But, we can't mention their name," Pesta Uli said.

STAR Tambah Modal Anak Usaha Rp135 Miliar - TopSaham

PT Star Petrochem Tbk (STAR) menyatakan telah menuntaskan penambahan penyertaan modal pada anak usaha senilai Rp135 miliar.

Direktur STAR, Irwando Saragih dalam suratnya yang disampaikan ke BEI di Jakarta Kamis (4/8) mengatakan, penambahan modal yang dilakukan tersebut antara lain penambahan modal pada PT Star Asia Indonesia senilai Rp10 miliar, penambahan modal pada PT Tunas Surya senilai Rp125 miliar.

Selanjutnya penyertaan modal ke anak usaha PT Tunas Surya yaitu Bintang Perkasa," tukasnya

HRUM:Upbeat selling price - Mandiri

HRUM’s 2Q11 results were lower than expectations mainly due to lower sales volume which decreased 5% qoq caused by shipment delay in 2Q11 to 3Q11. We expect HRUM will book strong improvement in 3Q11 as indicated by July’s sales volume that increased 20% from its average monthly sales. MSJ has achieved a record production of 798k tons, a significant increase of 35%-36% from its average monthly which is likely be ramped up to compensate potential delay on the TBH’s coal production of 0.5Mt in 4Q11 that is still waiting for land borrow-use permit. The company has revised down SB’s target to 2.0Mt vs 2.5Mt previously. However, supported by upbeat coal price outlook following Japanese contract repricing, we also have increased our coal benchmark price to US$120/ton onward, this will translate into higher ASP for MSJ and SB. As we roll over into 2012 valuation, our blended valuation derived higher TP at Rp14,800/share implying 14.3x adjusted PER12F and offering 51% upside potential. Maintain our Buy rating.

Slower growth in 1H11 due to some delay. HRUM posted 1H11 revenue of Rp2,986bn, (+42.6%yoy, -2.8%qoq) followed by operating profit of Rp961bn (+95%yoy, -8.7%qoq). Yearly basis, HRUM booked robust earnings growth mainly driven by ASP growth of 30.5%yoy but quarterly basis it grew slower than expectations mainly due to some sales delay as indicated by the inventory level hike of 61%yoy to US$53mn.

SB is benefiting from spot market. As most of SB’s coal is sold at spot market, SB’s ASP jumped faster at 16.4%qoq growth up to US$99.5/ton vs MSJ’s only grew by 5.1% qoq amid robust global demand. Upbeat ASP would compensate SB’s lower sales volume this year due to land acquisition issue on some part of its concession. Additional fleets to support production growth in 2012 will be mobilized in 2H11. So we maintain SB’s coal production in FY12F at 3.0Mt.

Minor earnings changes compensated by higher ASP. We lowered HRUM’s earnings in FY11F and FY12F by only 2.0 – 3.0% to Rp1,722bn and Rp2,506bn respectively mainly driven by the rupiah’s appreciation, lower sales volume (including lower trading volume) and higher fuel prices. However, upbeat coal price outlook will translate into higher ASP in forthcoming quarters as the exposure to index link and spot price remains high of 30%-40% from its FY11F total planned production.

Reiterate Buy. We still like HRUM as it still offers robust production volume and its pricing strategy amid buoyant seaborne coal demand. Furthermore, adjustment on its minority dividend accounting treatment and high quality coal assets acquisition would offer further upside potential, supported by its strong balance sheet and robust ROAE in the industry. Reiterate our Buy rating.

MYOR:Margin hit in 2Q11 - Mandiri

MYOR’s disappointing 1H11 results justify our Sell rating and below-consensus estimates. Rising input costs caused net income to contract by 27.6% yoy and 30.8% qoq. Net income only represented 38.0% and 31.2% of our and consensus’ FY11F. The 1H11 gross margin also declined to 17.8%, the lowest level in the last 10 years. Although margins should rebound in 2H11 due to demand seasonality, ASP increase, and use of cheaper inventory, the stock is trading on demanding PER11-12F of 28.9-21.1x, an unjustifiable premium to other consumer companies. We re-iterate Sell on MYOR.

1H11 results were below our and consensus’ FY11F estimates. MYOR posted 1H11 revenue of Rp4.2tn (+27.1%yoy, +14.7%qoq). However, its 1H11 net income was only Rp153bn (-27.6%yoy, -30.8%%qoq). While the top-line figure was in line with our and consensus’ estimate, the bottom-line figure was way below estimates by representing only 38.0% of our FY11F and 31.2% of consensus’ FY11F estimate.

The lowest gross margin in a decade. The company experienced margin pressure from the surge in input costs. In 1H11, gross margin was only 17.8%, compared with a 10-year average of 23.9%. However, as the company kept focusing on market share, it maintained stable selling-expense-to-revenue ratio of 9.3% (vs 10-year average of 9.4%). Lower gross margin amidst sticky discretionary expense resulted in short term pain with 1H11 operating margin of only 6.5%, which is lower than our and consensus’ FY11F expectation of 7.6% and 9.2% (10 years average was 10.5%)

2H11F should be better. We think the company’s performance will be better in 2H11F. Upside in net income may happen due to (1) strong demand during Muslim festive in 3Q11, and (2) 3-5% ASP increase in July 2011 that will take fully into effect by 4Q11. At the same time, downside risk is minimized as the company has built sufficient inventory balance in June 2011 to mitigate raw material costs volatility. Note that the company’s inventory balance as of June 2011 has increased by 70.9%yoy, which was faster than revenue growth rate.

Maintain Sell. At the current price, MYOR is trading at PER11-12F of 28.9-21.1x, which is above its average PER+1 standard deviation, and at premium to other consumer sector companies. Our DCF valuation with WACC of 10.4% and TG rate of 6.0% results in TP of Rp12,000/share. We maintain our Sell recommendation for MYOR.

BBCA:No doubt, but still expensive - Mandiri

BBCA’s share price continued skyrocketing, reaching its highest at Rp8,850/share, translating into 2012F P/BV of 4.7x, the highest valuation in the region. It is difficult to justify BBCA’s current valuation from the ordinary valuation approach. We therefore tried to look from different angle, which is basically derived from the bank’s main strength: its deposit franchise. Using the deposit franchise approach, we arrived at a new TP of Rp9,000/share for the bank, which only provided limited upside from the current share price. Maintain neutral.

Minimal surprises from the 1H11 results. The bank’s 1H11 results were hardly surprising. Its performance was relatively stable, with net profit growing by 20.4% yoy in 1H11 supported by 43.3% yoy growth in net interest income. Note that such higher growth in net interest income was due to the transfer of around Rp50tn of the bank’s placement in SBIs (which interest income was recognized as part of non interest income) to term deposits.

Unbeatable strong deposit franchise … BBCA’s strong deposit franchise was again reflected in the 2Q11 results, whereby total deposits grew by 3.6% qoq, driven mainly by demand deposits (+5.9% qoq) and saving (+4.0% qoq). This brought CASA proportion to increase to 77.3% at end Jun11 from 76.6% at end Jun10, significantly higher than the average CASA proportion of commercial banks of 52.8%. What’s more interesting - despite such increase in deposits - its interest expenses contracted by 3.9% qoq in 2Q11 (the bank has cut its saving rate by total 25 bps since Apr11). Coupled with higher interest income (+4.5% qoq) as a result of improvement in earning asset mix, the bank’s NIM improved from 5.4% in 1Q11 to 5.6% in 1H11.

Strong asset quality maintained.. The bank’s asset quality remained sound at 0.7% at end Jun11, the lowest compared with its peers. BBCA was in fact recorded an upgrade on its Rp148bn NPL, allowing it to book net correction on impairment expenses of Rp120bn in 1H11.

Is the current valuation justifiable? BBCA’s current valuation is the highest in the industry. We believe this premium was due to at least 2 factors (1) expectation of interest rate hike which will benefit BBCA as it has huge excess liquidity and (2) the bank’s excess provisioning (estimated at Rp97/share if all NPL was considered as bad debt). Still, looking from this angle doesn’t justify the current share price. Another different approach is taken, whereby we tried to translate the earnings generated from its strong deposit franchise. Assuming average spread of 4.5% and cost per deposits of 3.5%, we arrived at our new TP of Rp9,000/share.

Uncertainty looms large: Emerging Equity Markets Monthly Wrap - July 2011 - JP Morgan

· Equities declined in July, driven by heightened uncertainty over the increase in US debt ceiling, European sovereign stress, and slowdown in Chinese economic growth. EM Asia was the best performing sub-region +0.3%. EMEA and LatAm declined 0.6% and 3.5% respectively (see page 7).

· Thailand, Peru and Philippines were the best performing markets in July. Mexico, Taiwan and South Africa were the worst performing markets. At the sector level, Consumer Staples and Telecoms (+0.7% each) were the best performing sectors. Industrials (-3.1%), Utilities (-2.5%) and IT (-1.7%) were the worst performers.

· The Japanese Yen and Aussie dollar were the best performing DM currencies in July, appreciating 5% and 2.5% respectively. The Philippines Peso (+2.8%), Malaysian Ringgit (+1.5%) and Korean Won (+1.4%) were the best performing EM currencies. The Turkish Lira and Hungarian Forint depreciated by 4% and 2% respectively.

· Gold gained 8.5% in the last month as investors sought safe havens amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the increase in US debt ceiling and fiscal stress in US and Europe. Brent gained 4.6% followed by industrial metals up 4% and agriculture up 3.3%.

· Total EM equity funds had inflows of US$1.4B in July. GEM and Asia ex equity funds had inflows of US$1.8B and US$740MM while EMEA and LatAm equity funds had outflows of US$558B and US$276MM respectively. Year to date total EM equity outflows are US$5.1B. EM fixed income has strong inflows of US$32.2B year to date.

· Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, 29 July 2011.

Downgrade banking sector - valuations have priced in strong fundamental and lack of positive surprise - CIMB

Indonesia's inflation rate looks to have reached the bottom and I would think that Aug/Sep inflation would be higher as consumption increase as the results of the fasting month and Lebaran holiday. Our banking analyst, Mulya Chandra, CFA, downgraded the banking sector to Neutral from Overweight. The banks have had strong results in 1H11, and the core operations (loan growth and NIM) are very much in line with expectations. Some banks delivered better than expected earnings, but these better results were helped by unusually low cost-income ratios, low tax rates, or reductions in provisioning coverage, which were not sustainable. He does not expect any further positive surprises and valuations look stretch. His preference would be medium size banks like Bukopin and BBTN; for big size bank is Mandiri, but buy after the pull back of the sector. I would take profit on banks for the time being.

ASII (TP Rp79,200) All time high July 2011 industry car sales volume looks priced in - Credit Suisse

● The July 2011 industry car sales volume reached an all time high of 88,751 units, 23% YoY and 27% MoM growth. The 7M11A industry auto sales came at 506,078 units, up by 14% YoY.
● Despite robust growth, the 7M11A industry car sales came in line with our expectations at 57% of our FY11E forecast, in line with the historical range. We maintain our FY11E industry car sales volume of 894,623 units, a 17% YoY growth.
● While we remain positive about the fundamental outlook of ASII, we believe the recent rapid rally in ASII’s share price implies market expectations on the stock are currently quite rich.
● Thus, we maintain our NEUTRAL rating on ASII and target price of Rp79,200/share as we believe the robust growth of industry July 2011 car sales volume has been largely priced in and expected by the market.

PT Bank Central Asia Tbk Thanks to High Portion of CASA - AAA

BBCA unbeatable high CASA portion remains the catalyst for its profitability growth in all interest rates environment. With its low cost funding, NIM continued to increase and BBCA is well positioned to offer competitive rates.

± 1H11 Higher Net Interest Income and Gain on Provisioning Reversal
After a weak growth in 1Q11 at only 4% yoy, in 1H11 BBCA net profit grew 20% yoy, 38% qoq, led by 37% yoy higher net interest income. In addition, the ongoing reversal in provisioning expense to Rp120 bn (from Rp275 bn previously) also contribute positively to the bottom line. 1H11 net profit was in line and comprising 53% of our estimate, hence confirming our full-year bottom line figure which will experience relatively flat growth this year. Fee based income declined by 17% yoy due to lower proceeds of the government bond (financial assets) of only Rp136 bn in 1H11 (Rp1,1 tn in 1H10).

± Shifting to Higher Yield Earnings Assets Composition
BBCA is reducing its government bond holding as it is earning only 5% SPN (3-month T-Bills) instead of 3-month SBI that carried higher yield. The latter, however, has been removed from the market by the Central Bank. With lower portion of government bond, the portion of higher yield assets, i.e. loan, has increased to 63% (62% in 1Q11). Currently, the government bond stands at Rp37 tn (Rp42 tn in 1H10) while loan grew 21% yoy led by expansion in commercial loan by 41% yoy. Third fund deposits rose 12% yoy with CASA portion improved to 77%. NIM has slightly increased to 5.6% as saving rate decreased by 40 bps to 2.6%. NPL remained very healthy at 0.7%.

± Valuation: Upgrade TP to Rp9,200. HOLD.
The growth catalysts for 2011-12 are: 1) BBCA will benefit from potential higher interest rate environment in 2012 (see box in page 2). Plus, 73% of BBCA’s government bond is earning variable rate. 2) High CASA portion should entice more borrowers across all loan segments. 3) Higher potential fee income after the acquisition of securities firm. We roll forward our TP to FY12F at Rp9,200 implying 4.6x PBV. But we recommend HOLD since our TP only provides less than 10% upside compare to current price. Opportunity to BUY occurs if BBCA share is traded at its average historical PBV of 4.1x.

DOID:Short-term pain, long-term gain - Mandiri

We have made a 50-59% downward adjustment to our FY11-12F net profit forecast for DOID, following the release of its 1H11 results. We and the consensus may have underestimated the heavy re-investment needs, double declining depreciation effect, employee turnover, and cost structure changes following the change of shareholders. We are hopeful that DOID can migrate out of its punitive double declining depreciation policy to straight line by YE11 that could soften the blow to earnings. While we acknowledge that the stock may need time to win back investors’ trust, we are keeping our Buy rating based on the promising industry outlook, strength of new shareholders, and DCF upside potential. Assuming successful adoption of straight-line accounting, we value DOID at Rp1,220/share based on blended approach, implying 15.2x adjusted PER12F and 28.4% potential upside. A lot of the negatives have been priced in, considering the severe underperformance to the index over the past 12 months and Rp1,100 entry price by the new shareholders.

Operationally improve. Buma is currently aiming OB activities up to 32-33mn bcm per month in 2H11F about 15-20% increase from 1H11 monthly average volume. In 1H11 OB removal achieved 155.7mn bcm or represent 43.3% our FY11F, slightly below our expectation considering seasonal factors in 1H11 and some new fleets have not yet commenced operation.

SL is important for public investor. Buma’s CFO, Mr Sujoko Martin, highlighted that investment decision should not merely affected by depreciation method. Instead, investor should focus on operational improvement. However to get fair comparison with peers changing into Straight line method (SL) is considered as a critical factor in our opinion. Currently Buma is still reviewing and analyzing the cost and benefit of changing its depreciation method since it could affect it historical asset’s value and might create some asset impairment.

Labor incentives and cost remodeling for a better future. Buma’s legacy fleets from the old owners, Mr Johan Lensa, were not well maintained in the past which created unexpected expensive costs which lead to asset replacement. At the same time, high quality labor forces are required to support the company’s operating improvement. Therefore, some incentives and cost structure remodeling would be necessarily to bolster the company’s long-term outlook.

Maintain Buy – lower TP. DOID’s inexpensive valuation somewhat has been factored in by the market based on its existing project. In our view, DOID’s earnings growth catalysts mainly are future projects and change on its depreciation method. We have rolled into 2012 valuation and adjusted for SL’s earnings version vs DD’s version in our earnings. We maintain our Buy rating with lower TP at Rp 1,220/share implying 15.2x adjusted PER12F and 6.5x EV/EBITDA12F.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Growth With Quality - AAA

BBRI aims to grow with quality. Loan has been growing at modest pace, while NPL has been pushed down lower. In terms of profitability, NIM is on an upward trend due to higher portion of micro loan. Meanwhile, micro loan demand continues to be robust.
± Strong Performance

BBRI continues to post strong bottom line growth at 57% yoy, 8% qoq thanks to higher composition of high yield micro loans. This, despite its lower than the industry loan growth of 17% versus the industry of 25% yoy. As such, net interest income was up by 23% yoy, 4% qoq. Fee based income also rose 33% yoy, 18% qoq mostly due to Rp897 bn from SME loan recovery. 1H11 net profit stood at Rp6.7 tn, in line and accounted for 50% of our FY11F estimate.
± Higher Portion of Micro Loan Results in Higher NIM

Micro loan now accounts at 32% of total Rp265 tn loan, the highest portion level ever. It has grown by 35% yoy, sending NIM to 9.9% from 9.4%. At the same time, BBRI is reducing its SME loan portion to 28% (from 28.49% previously) as it carries high NPL (7.5% for small and 9.3% for medium loan). Meanwhile, influx of funding remained healthy with 15% yoy growth and with CASA ratio stable at 57%.
± Pushing Down NPL

Aside from robust loan demand in micro segment, the catalyst in 2011 will include better assets quality. In 2Q11, NPL has been pushed down to 3.6% from 4.3%. By the year-end, we expect BBRI could reduce NPL even lower to 2.5%. Among many initiatives to achieve this, BBRI is placing 2 senior credit officers in every branch to supervise and to speed up the loan collection and restructuring process.
± Valuation, BUY with TP Rp8,200

As the 1H11 results is in line with our estimates and the share price has gone up by 33% ytd, we roll forward our TP to FY12F at Rp8,200 which implies 3.3x PBV. The current valuation is still attractive as BBRI’s share is trading at 2.8x PBV FY12F, while historically it was traded at 3.5x. BUY.

Indonesia Macro View - What Will Be Done About Energy Subsidies (and When)? - Citigroup

 No crisis, no action? — Given the government’s excess cash position and the lingering debt crisis in developed economies, swelling domestic energy subsidies have so far not triggered serious concerns in the bond market. The government may thus continue to take its time in implementing subsidy reform.
 But eventually the subsidies must be managed, as they take up a growing portion of the budget — The question is how and when? Energy subsidies already exceed the central government’s capital spending budget. And even at the provincial/regional government level, capital expenditure is dwarfed by salary payments. Under the status quo, long-term growth objectives are clearly being outweighed by short-term considerations.
 From a political standpoint, we think rationing will be preferred over price hikes — Although only mild price hike scenarios have been put on the table, they may have a higher inflation impact compared to a rationing program, and thus would likely be less popular. We estimate an 11% fuel price increase would push up inflation by 1.4pps from a no-hike scenario. Meanwhile, rationing in Java-Bali would push inflation by 0.3 – 0.8 percentage points upon full implementation, depending on the width of coverage.
 In regard to the timing, we don’t think a wide-scale subsidy limitation program will be carried out until 1Q12 — The infrastructure for a coordinated wide-scale rationing program may still need months to prepare. Hence we don’t think that immediate implementation after the Eid holidays (end-August) is likely, although a rationing plan of limited scope, involving Jakarta only, is not impossible.
 Lowering our YE11 inflation forecast to 5.0%, and raising our YE12 inflation forecast to 6.2% — This is from previously 5.8% and 5.8%. Although fuel scarcities are still a risk, there hasn’t been extraordinarily high inflation in the areas of occurrence. Meanwhile we maintain our projection of a stable BI rate this year and only one 25bps hike in 2012.

APLN:Sweet spot - Mandiri

APLN share price may catch up with its peers following the release of impressive 1H11 results. Doubt over the company’s revenue and expense recognition policy may start to subside after two consecutive quarters of good numbers. The 1H11 net profit came in strong at Rp338bn (+116% YoY) or 64% of consensus. The 1H11 sales already accounted for 66% of our full year projection, a strong achievement considering that last year 60% of sales came in 2H10. We are not changing our forecast as yet, but our current forecast is looking conservative if the strong marketing sales momentum seen in 1H11 can sustain its course (see exhibit 3). We reiterate Buy with TP: Rp430/share. Our rolling 2012 valuation stands APLN at PER 11.9x (vs. CTRP PER12F of 20.8x) and 33% discount to RNAV12F.

Strong 1H11 results, 64% of FY11F consensus. APLN’s marketing sales continued to be upbeat. The 6M11 sales booked at Rp2.5tn, led net profit to soar to Rp338bn (+116% YoY), above of our (63%) and consensus (64%) estimates. Overall margin expanded, boosted by major booking from higher- margin projects, including the Kuningan City and Green Bay, aside from accelerating ASP. Looking at our bullish outlook in the sector, this may trigger potential earnings breakout, with selling price as the main growth engine. APLN also bagged sales backlog amounting to Rp3.6tn, as at Jun11.

Next two-year expansion fueled by low-cost debt. The company announced last week of its plan to issue bonds to raise total proceeds of up to Rp800bn (3years: 30%; 5 years: 70%). As the cost of debt would yield the company at 9.5%-11.5%, while property projects today offers an IRR of 15-25, we think the next two-year expansion will be a breeze, thanks to favorable macroeconomic conditions. Post the planned debt issuance, the company’s DER will be at 51%, using its last cash position of Rp1.68tn.

Two new acquisitions before year-end. We are yet to revise our forecast, despite of the good results. We are waiting to firmer structure of the bonds, as well as better view on the nearest project expansion. APLN hinted at least there are two projects to be acquired before the end of 2011. Besides, our channel check suggested that one of the targets would give the company a direct recurring income contribution, which we suspect this will be an asset injection from its group level. In the meantime, the company still maintains its guidance for FY11F net profit of Rp500-550bn.

Maintain Buy. We maintain Buy on APLN with TP: Rp430/share. As we rolled to 2012 valuation, the stock now trades at PER 11.9x and 33% discount to RNAV12F.

Medco Energi: Key takeaways from analyst meeting (MEDC, Rp2,525, Neutral, TP: Rp3,200) - Mandiri

􀂄 We attended Medco Energi (MEDC) analyst meeting and highlighted several points 􀂄 Management changes occur with new board positions:
(i) Lukman Mahfoedz, CEO, previously Project Director (now dispensed)
(ii) Syamsurizal Munaf, CFO, previously a Technical Director in Medco E&P Indonesia, has been in MEDC group level since 1997
(iii) Dasril Dahya, Human Capital previously Producing Asset Director in Medco E&P Indonesia, with Geologist background, has served around 30 years in MEDC
(iv) Frila Berlini Yaman, COO E&P, has a long experience in global oil companies
(v) Akira Mizuta, Chief Planning Officer, a representative from Mitsubishi.
􀂄 We noted MEDC now has two COO, with different focus (E&P and non-E&P business) and more boards at MEDC level (previously positioned in Medco E&P Indonesia group)
􀂄 As expected, revenue growth was mainly driven by strong oil price ASP at US$113.2/bbl (+40.7%yoy), mitigating oil lifting decline to 29.3mbopd (-4.5%yoy). On the other hand, gas production grew at high single digit to 159.6mmscfd (+9.7%yoy) mainly came from Lematang block.
􀂄 In terms of reserves, MEDC is still faced a declining trend with 2P reserves at 243mmboe (vs 3M11: 248mmboe). However, there is a potential reserve may come from Lika well in SCS block as MEDC conducted exploration efforts recently.
􀂄 We are reviewing our forecast on MEDC, currently traded at EV/2P US$5.2/boe

Bukit Sentul (BKSL) – Yesterday’s EGM approves non-preemptive right issue plan (BKSL, Rp225, Not rated) - Mandiri

􀂄 Shareholders of BKSL yesterday gave approval to the company on its plan of conducting non-preemptive right issue. The proceeds, targeted at Rp333bn, will be used by BKSL to acquire 100% stakes in PT Aftanesia (Rp2bn), a company which has 95.3ha of land in Karang Tengah, Bogor. For the balance, BKSL will use it for capital injection in Aftanesia (Rp276.81bn), as well as group’s additional working capital (Rp55.1bn)
􀂄 Aftanesia’s land bank is strategically located as it will give easy access from Sentul to Puncak-Bogor once Poros Tengah artery road construction will have been completed. In the meantime, Karang Tengah will be part of Sentul Nirwana’s 1st phase development. The area has an average acquisition cost of Rp100k/sqm. Having Sentul Nirwana launching price two weeks ago been tagged at Rp2.2mn/sqm, 50% GPM is already in hand. We think BKSL can continue reaping higher margin, along with progress of Poros Tengah construction. Note, that the company will also bring-in theme park in the area.
􀂄 BKSL is getting more interesting! The stock currently trades at rock-bottom 70% discount to NAV, an internal appraised valuation that still accounts Sentul Nirwana land at cost.

Tire Manufacturer: Car tire sales in 1H11 up by 3%yoy, supported by domestic sales (GJTL, Rp3,150, Buy, TP: Rp3,000) (MASA, Rp580, Buy, TP: Rp520) - Mandiri

􀂄 According to Indonesian Tire Manufacturer Association (APBI); as quoted in Investor Daily, 1H11 car tire sales volume reached 25.58mn units (+2.9%yoy), while around 28.7% are domestic sales. Domestic sales in 1H11 is predicted to reach Rp5.5-18.4tn. The amount is based on sales volume, which reached 7.35mn units (+3.7%yoy) and selling price on range Rp750k-2.5mn per unit. Around 70% of the domestic sales are OEM (original equipment manufacturer) sales. Car tire export in 1H11 reached 18.22mn units (+2.5%yoy) equivalent to US$2.2bn - 9.1bn. Meanwhile, production of car tire reached 26.47mn units (+6.5%yoy).
􀂄 In 1H11, GJTL has sold 6.1mn units of PCR (passenger car radial) (+19.6%yoy) and 7.2mn units of bias tire (-0.1%yoy). We have a buy recommendation on GJTL, is trading at PER11-12F of 11.6-11.2x.
􀂄 Meanwhile, MASA’s sales volume for PCR in 1H11 reached 3.2mn units (+13.0%yoy). We have a buy recommendation on MASA, is trading at PER11-12F of 14.6-11.5x.

Kamis, 04 Agustus 2011

IHSG Siap Kembali Melaju - Detikfinance

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) kemarin ditutup melemah hingga 41 poin terseret jatuhnya bursa regional akibat data-data ekonomi negatif dari AS. Investor asing pun mulai melarikan dananya dari bursa senilai lebih dari Rp 500 miliar.

Pada perdagangan, Rabu (3/8/2011), IHSG ditutup melemah 41,339 poin (0,99%) ke level 4.136,507. Indeks LQ 45 terkoreksi 7,892 poin (1,07%) ke level 732,744.

Setelah koreksi tajam kemarin, IHSG berpeluang menguat. Membaiknya bursa-bursa utama dunia akan memberikan sedikit angin segar meski investor masih gamang. Pada perdagangan Kamis (4/8/2011), IHSG diprediksi bergerak menguat tipis.

Sementara tadi malam Bursa Wall Street akhirnya rebound setelah kemarin mengalami kemerosotan yang cukup tajam. Indeks saham menguat tipis dalam volume perdagangan yang sangat ramai mengapai 10 miliar lembar saham.

Pada perdagangan Rabu (3/8/2011), indeks Dow Jones industrial average ditutup menguat tipis 29,82 poin (0,25%) ke level 11.896,44. Indeks Standard & Poor's 500 juga menguat 6,29 poin (0,50%) ke level 1.260,34 dan Nasdaq menguat 23,83 poin (0,89%) ke level 2.693,07.

Bursa Jepang yang kemarin terpuruk cukup dalam juga sudah membaik. Mengawali perdagangan Kamis, indeks Nikkei-225 menguat 48,36 poin (0,50%) ke level 9.685,50.

“Hold your Russia, Korea and Indonesia and look to lighten up everywhere else.”

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- An “ominous” head-and-shoulders pattern has formed over the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which may foreshadow declines that will take it to the lowest level in almost a year, according to Auerbach Grayson & Co.

Investors should sell stocks of developing nations except for Russia, South Korea and Indonesia, Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, said in a note to clients dated July 29. The emerging-markets gauge dropped 1.8 percent to 1,126.97 yesterday, the most in three weeks. A weekly close below the 50-week moving average at 1,120 could “set the stage for a fast move down to 1,043,” Ross said. The MSCI measure plunged as much as 58 percent after breaking below the 50-week average in June 2008.

“An ominous rolling head-and-shoulders top has formed over the emerging markets,” said Ross. “Hold your Russia, Korea and Indonesia and look to lighten up everywhere else.”

Ross, who is based in New York, said on Jan. 27 that Indonesia’s benchmark stock index may rise 18 percent after slumping to a key Fibonacci support level. The measure has since climbed 19 percent, closing at a record high on Aug. 1.

The emerging-markets gauge has fallen 2.7 percent this year, compared with a 1.2 percent slump in the MSCI World Index, on concern accelerating inflation in countries from China to India will spur more increases in interest rates, curbing economic growth. The MSCI index closed below 1,043 in September 2010.

A head-and-shoulders formation is three highs, with the middle peak rising above two roughly equal outside peaks. The middle peak, or crown, occurred in April, while the two shoulders formed in January and July, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Credit Suisse

The Jakarta Composite Index has rallied 13 percent this year, the most among Asia’s benchmark stock gauges, while Russia’s dollar-denominated RTS Index gained 10 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index has climbed 0.7 percent.

Credit Suisse Group AG cut its equity allocations for Indonesia and Thailand stocks in its global emerging-markets portfolio, while adding equities in China, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, according to an Aug. 1 report. Thailand’s SET Index has advanced 10 percent this year, surging to a 15-year high on Aug. 1.

In technical analysis, investors study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security.

U.S. Stocks Rise on Bets of More Stimulus; Treasuries Pare Gains - Bloomberg

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, reversing earlier losses and preventing the longest Dow Jones Industrial Average slump since 1978, as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will start another stimulus program. Treasuries 10-year notes erased gains, and the dollar slid.

Speculation the Fed will embark on a third round of asset purchases to stem off a recession grew after the Wall Street Journal said three former central bank officials support the approach. More than $2.3 trillion had been erased from the value of global equities since July 22, and Treasury yields set 2011 lows, amid concern the economic recovery is faltering. Service industries grew in July at the slowest pace since February 2010, the Institute for Supply Management said today.

Stocks recovered after the Wall Street Journal reported that former Fed officials Donald Kohn, Vincent Reinhart and Brian Madigan said the central bank should consider a third round of bond purchases to help the economy.

Quantitative Easing

The Fed may arrange a third round of quantitative easing, known as QE3, Gross said. The central bank purchased bonds to cap borrowing costs in the first two easing efforts. The Fed has also promised to keep the target for overnight bank lending low for an “extended period.” The Fed may need to consider signaling an even longer commitment to low interest rates, according to BlackRock’s Fisher, who is based in New York.

Investors are also awaiting a government employment report in two days, which economists forecast will show the U.S. added a net 85,000 jobs last month including a 115,000 boost to private-sector employment.
Oil fell 2 percent to $91.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures rose 1.3 percent to a record $1,675.90 an ounce.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks sank 2.2 percent, set for the lowest close in more than a month.

Alam Sutera (ASRI IJ; BUY; TP IDR 530): 2Q11 Results Review - Riding on Buoyant Prices - OSK

We have raised our TP from IDR 400 previously to IDR 530 to reflect: i) rolling forward of our base year from 2011 to 2012; ii) additional 400ha landbank in Pasar Kemis. ASRI remains the top pick in our property universe, with its share price gaining traction and putting on 52% in 2Q11. The stock is currently trading at a 42% discount to company’s new NAV of IDR 762 per share, with a 12x PE12f, 2.5x PBV12f. It’s a BUY.

Strong 1H11 showing. ASRI’s 1H11 results definitely reflected the strong demand in the Serpong area in the past few years. The company managed to book revenue of IDR 706bn in 1H11 (+78% y-o-y), with gross margins expanding to 43% in 2Q11, up by 400bps from 39% in 1Q11. This was lifted by sales of land plots, which contributed 34% of revenue, or IDR 232bn, from which margins can be as high as 65%. As a result, 1H11 earnings grew two-fold to IDR 289bn, accounting for 59% of our FY11f forecast of IDR 489bn. This is deemed in line since 63% of the company’s FY10 pre-sales was achieved within a 6-month period last year. The company still holds IDR1.4trn in customers’ advance payment in its balance sheet which can potentially be regarded as revenue. In 1H11, it was in a net cash position, and has a considerably low gearing of 24%.

Demand in Serpong still strong. On 28 July 2011, the company successfully launched the residential subcluster “Pelangi” in Serpong. Some 87% of the 62 housing units were sold out, adding IDR 146bn to ASRI’s pre-sales, which stood at IDR 1trn up to June 2011. The price range is IDR 2.3bn to IDR 5.2bn per unit, or equivalent to a land selling price of IDR 6.1-6.5m per sq m. As the land is Serpong is diminishing, we expect the group’s 2H11 pre-sales to come from its 2nd township projects in Pasar Kemis.

29% of ASRI’s value, or IDR 3.8trn, lies in Pasar Kemis. This is based on the development cost (including land acquisition) of IDR 400,000/sq m. However, we expect value in Pasar Kemis to increase in the near term as the project is ready for launch sometime in October 2011. The land selling price is estimated to start from IDR 1m/sq m, which is still at a discount if we compare it with that in neighbouring Talaga Bestari estate (owned by Intiland–DILD IJ), currently going for IDR 1.5m/sq m. The price per unit will be about IDR 200m-300m per unit, with a gross floor area (GFA) of around 125 sq m.

Default Concerns Prompt Investors to Flee U.S. Money-Market, Stock Funds - Bloomberg

Investors nervous about the prospect of a default by the U.S. government pulled money out of all forms of mutual funds, from money-market funds to those that invest in stocks.

U.S. money-market funds experienced $103 billion in redemptions the week ended Aug. 2, the most in one week since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008, according to iMoneyNet, a fund research firm in Westborough, Massachusetts.

Mutual funds that invest in stocks and bonds had net redemptions of $10.4 billion in the week ended July 27, according to an e-mailed statement from the Investment Company Institute, a Washington-based trade group. It was the biggest withdrawal since the week ended May 26, 2010, when investors pulled $17.4 billion, ICI data show.

“We saw people get nervous in May during the Greek debt crisis and this situation hit much closer to home,” Russel Kinnel, director of mutual fund research at Chicago-based Morningstar Inc. (MORN), said in a telephone interview.

After weeks of failed negotiations, U.S. congressional leaders and the White House agreed to raise the U.S. debt ceiling yesterday, the same day the Treasury Department said the government would run out of money. Republicans had refused to back the measure until Democrats agreed to a long-term deficit- reduction plan. U.S. debt still faces a potential downgrade by ratings firms.

U.S. Equity Funds

Money funds lost more only once before, when investors pulled $121 billion in the week ended Sept. 23, 2008. Lehman declared bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008, and the $62.5 billion Reserve Primary Fund, which held Lehman debt, closed the following day, triggering a run on money funds eligible to buy corporate debt, known as prime funds.

Institutional prime funds lost $61 billion and institutional government funds had $47 billion in withdrawals last week, according to iMoneyNet. Retail government funds lost $1 billion, while retail prime funds attracted $6 billion in deposits.

Funds that invest in U.S. stocks suffered $8.8 billion in redemptions last week, the most among stock and bond funds. Such funds had $9 billion in withdrawals in the first six months of 2011, ICI data show, which puts them on pace for a record fifth- straight year of redemptions.

Investors withdrew $1.34 billion from funds that buy international stocks, $67 million from taxable bond funds and $147 million from municipal bond funds, ICI data show.
Downgrade Risk Remains

Moody’s Investors Service, which found the deficit- reduction deal insufficient, put the U.S. on notice that it is at risk of a downgrade without additional deficit reduction measures. While the New York-based firm retained its AAA rating on U.S. debt, the outlook is now negative. Read More

Emerging-Market Stocks Decline to a 10-Week Low on U.S. Growth Concern - Bloomberg

Emerging-market stocks fell for the second day, driving the benchmark index down the most in 10 weeks, as slower expansion in U.S. service industries added to concern over growth in the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index sank 2.2 percent, the most since May 23, to 1,102.59 at 4:30 p.m. in New York. Brazil’s Bovespa Index plunged 2.3 percent, the biggest loss in six months, while Chile’s benchmark slid to the lowest since February. Equities fell in almost all nations across central and eastern Europe, led by slumps in Poland and Russia. South Korea’s Kospi Index (KOSPI) dived 2.6 percent for the biggest two-day plunge since November 2009.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the U.S. economy, dropped to 52.7 last month from 53.3 in June. Readings above 50 signal expansion, and economists projected 52.3 for July. Companies in the U.S. added 114,000 workers to payrolls in July, less than the 157,000 a month earlier, according to ADP Employer Services.

“The U.S. debt ceiling resolution did not turn around sentiment and investors’ worries turned to the sluggish outlook for the global growth and the renewed worries about Europe’s debt,” analysts at BNP Paribas SA including Bartosz Pawlowski in London wrote in an e-mailed report. “The market is unlikely to take the European debt crisis off the hook just yet.”

The U.S. personal spending dropped for the first time in almost two years, a report showed yesterday, outweighing relief the nation averted a default after President Barack Obama signed a plan to raise the government’s debt ceiling.
Debt Ratings

Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the U.S., while warning of possible downgrades if lawmakers fail to enact debt-reduction measures and the economy weakens. China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. cut the rating for the U.S. to A from A+ with a negative outlook even after the government’s approval of a higher debt ceiling, according to an e-mailed statement from Dagong today. Read More

Jaya Real Property H1 Profit Jumps 50% - The Indonesia Today

PT Jaya Real Property (JRPT) Tbk booked net profit of Rp146.38 billion in the first half of 2011, jumped 50% from the corresponding period last year.

The company reported sales revenue of Rp359.78 billion, an increase of 15.5% from the same period last year. Jaya Real Property booked operating profit of Rp136.4 billion, rose 26% from the first half of 2011.

Higher revenues from interest also contributed to the strong first half net profit growth as the company's cash almost doubled to Rp887.19 billion.

Jaya Real Property had total assets and equity of Rp3.76 trillion and Rp1.78 trillion respectively as of June 30, 2011.

RUIS mendapatkan kontrak Rp 2 Triliun hingga Juli 2011 - Britama

Radiant Utama Interinsco (RUIS) mendapatkan kontrak on hand senilai Rp 2 triliun hingga 31 Juli 2011. Kontrak-kontrak tersebut terdiri atas divisi inspeksi yang telah mendapatkan proyek senilai Rp 94,7 miliar dan divisi operasional sebesar Rp 682,9 miliar. Divisi lainnya, yakni offshore juga memperoleh proyek baru senilai Rp 63,9 miliar. Perseroan juga telah mendapatkan kontrak Mobile Offshore Production Unit (MOPU) yang baru saja selesai diakuisisi dari mitra mereka yakni perusahaan asal Dubai, Global Process Systems senilai USD 40 juta. RUIS juga telah mendapatkan kontrak dari Santos sebesar USD 90 juta. Kontrak itu jangka panjang, sampai tahun 2017.

Ups! Dana Pemerintah di Askrindo Rp1 T Bisa Raib -

Dana pemerintah yang diinvestasikan Asuransi Kredit Indonesia (Askrindo) yang nilainya sekitar Rp1 triliun terancam menguap.

Hal itu bisa terjadi jika pihak berwenang tidak segera melakukan penyelidikan dan penyidikan terhadap pihak-pihak yang paling bertanggung jawab dalam pengelolaan dan pengawasan di Badan Pengawasan Pasar Modal - Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK).

"Potensi untuk dibailout mencapai Rp2 triliun. Jika tidak ditangani dengan baik maka akan terjadi rush mencapai Rp150 triliun," ujar Panglima Besar Laskar Empati Pembela Bangsa (LEPAS), Eggi Sudjana di Jakarta, Rabu (3/8) dalam sebuah diskusi.

Seperti diketahui, Askrindo telah menginvestasikan dana pemerintah di 10 perusahaan manajer investasi (MI). Namun sejumlah MI justru mengaku tidak pernah menerima aliran dana dari Askrindo.

Komisi XI DPR RI telah memanggil sepuluh MI yang mengelola dana Askrindo untuk dimintai keterangan perihal dana tersebut. Wakil Ketua Komisi XI, Achsanul Qosasih menyatakan kesungguhan DPR untuk mengungkap kasus ini dan meminta keterangan dari mereka yang dianggap paling bertanggung jawab dalam hal ini.

Selanjutnya, Komisi XI DPR RI akan memanggil kedua kepala Biro Bapepam, yakni Kabiro Pengelolaan Investasi Djoko Hendrato dan Kabiro Pengawasan dan Penyidikan Sardjito menyusul terkuaknya kasus keuangan yang menimbulkan kerugian sekitar Rp1 triliun pada sejumlah BUMN.

Anggota Komisi XI dari Fraksi PDIP, Maruarar Sirait juga menegaskan, pihaknya akan menanyakan lemahnya peran Bapepam sebagai regulator. Dan menyelidiki peran kedua pejabat Bapepam tersebut dalam kasus penggelapan dana Elnusa dan transaksi reksadana fiktif di Askrindo. Komisi XI akan terus mendalami persoalan tersebut dan memanggil semua pihak yang diduga terkait.

Sementara menurut Pengamat Pasar Modal Januar Rizky ada kecenderungan pembiaran yang dilakukan Bapepam LK terhadap kasus tersebut dan kasus lainnya. "Bapepam LK dalam banyak hal menyerahkan banyak kasus ke polisi. Ini menurunkan kredibilitas karena dia itu penyidik," ujarnya.

Great Eastern H1 Profit Soars 58% to S$117.7 Million - The Indonesia Today

Insurance giant Great Eastern booked net profit of S$117.7 million in the second quarter of 2011, soared 58% from the corresponding period last year.

The second quarter profit, however, is substantially lower than the first quarter of 2011 at S$158.7 million. As a result, the first half profit of S$176.4 million grew only 9% from the corresponding period last year.

The first half weighted new sales rose 23% to S$363.6 million, where Singapore contributed S$214.6 million, while Malaysia at S$127.5 million. Singapore market grew substantially from S$154.7 million in the first half of 2010, while Malaysian market was somewhat flat.

Emerging markets, Indonesia and Vietnam, contributed S$21.5 million, increased substantially from S$16.8 million in H1/10. Great Eastern is building bancassurance partnership with Bank OCBC-NISP in Indonesia.

Tritunggal Borong 4,78 Juta Saham Indomobil

PT Tritunggal Intipermata (TIP) membeli 4.780.000 saham PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk (IMAS) pada 29 Juli 2011. Pembelian itu menambah kepemilikan saham IMAS oleh TIP dari 17,71% menjadi 18,05%.

TIP membeli 4,78 juta saham IMAS pada harga Rp 12.000/saham untuk tujuan investasi jangka panjang. Dengan demikian, TIP menjadi pemilik 18,05% saham IMAS, selain PT Cipta Sarana Duta Perkasa yang menguasai 52,35% saham IMAS.

TPG, Yokohama, Hankook eye MASA - Insider Stories

Three potential shortlisted bidders namely Texas Pacific Group (TPG), Hankook Tire Group, and Yokohama Tire Corporation are schedule to propose their final bid for 40% stake in tire maker PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk (MASA).

Two executives familiar with the matter said Multistrada is now helped by Hongkong amd Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) as financial adviser.
"The floor price for 40% shareholding in Multistrada is set at Rp600 per share," the sources said as quoted by Bisnis Indonesia today.

Even Goh, Head of Investor Relations at Multistrada, said there is no such bidding process to sell Multistrada. "Where did you hear about the information? So far, there is no such bidding process," he said.

However, in fact, Multistrada stocks have peaked and reached the highest level ever at Rp590 on July 7 in the last 5 years. The higest level reflected a 14.82x of estimated PER this year.

Citi dan OPIC Beri Pinjaman Danamon Rp170 M - Vivanews

VIVAnews- Citi Indonesia, dan Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) memberikan pinjaman sebesar US$20 juta (Rp170 miliar) kepada Bank Danamon. Pinjaman ini untuk mendanai unit usaha pembiayaan mikro Bank Danamon atau Danamon Simpan Pinjam.

Pinjaman ini merupakan yang pertama kali disalurkan oleh Citi dan OPIC dalam segmen pembiayaan mikro di Indonesia. Pinjaman ini merupakan bagian dari inisiatif global Citi dan OPIC senilai US$250 juta dalam memberikan pinjaman pembiayaan mikro kepada peminjam di negara berkembang di dunia.

“Pembiayaan mikro menunjukkan potensi yang sangat kuat, tidak hanya dalam hal mengurangi tingkat pengangguran dan meningkatkan akses finansial, tapi juga menjadi salah satu mesin pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam negeri,” kata Kunardy Lie, Head of Global Banking Citi Indonesia.

OPIC sendiri baru saja mengadakan konferensi tentang Investasi dibulan Mei di Indonesia. Indonesia merupakan negara prioritas bagi OPIC dan dipandang sebagai negara yang memiliki peningkatan ekonomi yang tinggi di tahun tahun kedepan. "Kami memberikan kesempatan bagi pengusaha mikro untuk mendapatkan peranan dalam pertumbuhan akan memastikan kuatnya pondasi ekonomi Indonesia," tambah OPIC President and CEO Elizabeth Littlefield.

Sementara itu menurut Direktur Micro Business Danamon Minhari Handikusuma, pinjaman itu akan memperluas pembiayaan mikro melalui unit usaha Danamon Simpan Pinjam. Tahun ini Danamon akan membuka sekitar 157 uni baru DSP di seluruh Indonesia, sehingga total unit DSP menjadi 1.200 unit.

Anak Usaha AKR Perpanjang Utang di Bank Mandiri US$ 15 Juta - Detikfinance

Jakarta - PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) memperpanjang corporate guarantee anak usahanya Khalista Chemical Industries Ltd dari PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) cabang Hong Kong senilai US$ 15 juta. Perpanjangan tersebut berupa penanggungan utang dan komitmen penyediaan cash deficit atas fasilitas kredit.

Menurut Direktur AKR Jimmy Tandyo, tujuan dari diperpanjangnya fasilitas kredit tersebut untuk modal kerja Khatalista termasuk untuk pembelian bahan baku dan kegiatan usaha anak perusahaan distributor bahan kimia, BBM, dan gas tersebut.

"Perpanjangan corporate guarantee tersebut berlaku selama 2 tahun," katanya dalam keterbukaan informasi di situs resmi Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI), Kamis (4/8/2011).

Khalista merupakan anak usaha 100% sahamnya dimiliki oleh AKR dan berkedudukan di China. Anggota Komisaris dan Direksi perseroan yang kini menjabat sebagai direksi di Khalista adalah Soegiarto Adikoesoemo dan Haryanto Adikoesoemo.

Soegiarto merupakan Presiden Komisaris di AKR dan Chairman & Legal Representative di Khalista. Sementara Haryanto merupakan Presiden Direktur AKR dan Chairman di Khalista.

Pada penutupan perdagangan kemarin, harga saham AKRA turun 25 poin (0,83%) ke level Rp 2.975 per lembar. Sebanyak 22.440 lot sahamnya ditransaksikan 1.042 kali dengan nilai Rp 32,9 miliar.

Astra Graphia (ASGR.IJ, BUY) – New foray to spur growth - Kim Eng

Astra Graphia booked 1H11 net profit of Rp53b and revenue of Rp648b, representing growth of 21% y/y and 13% y/y, respectively. Through its subsidiary, AGIT, the company recently signed an agreement with Monitise Asia Pacific Ltd to set up a joint venture to support mobile commerce solutions (eg, mobile money banking and payment) in Indonesia. The JV, named AGIT Monitise Indonesia, will have an initial capital outlay of US$2m and AGIT will hold a 51% stake. We maintain our revenue growth target of 15% CAGR over the next two years vis-à-vis management’s expectation of 25% CAGR. We also roll forward our base valuation to 2012 and our TP thus increases from Rp1,540 to Rp1,700 (based on 12.3x FY12F PER). Reiterate BUY.

Perusahaan Gas Negara : a concerning statement from BPMigas (PGAS, Rp4,000, Buy, TP: Rp4,960) - Mandiri

􀂄 In Bisnis Indonesia newspaper, head of BPMigas Mr.Priyono made a statement implying that the regulatory body wants PGAS to increase its gas purchase price from certain suppliers, quoting that some of its contracts are done at a price as low as US$1.8/mmbtu, against average domestic price of US$5.5/mmbtu. He said that if the government of Indonesia is about to re-negotiate LNG selling price to Fujian China, then the country will need to show policy consistency towards domestic players. Furthermore, a higher gas selling price will increase state revenue. He said that BPMigas has formally asked PGAS to re-negotiate its gas purchase price and notified the state owned ministry.
􀂄 Comment – the statement implies that BPMigas is asking PGAS to voluntarily pay more for its gas purchase, a move that will erode its margin overnight and reduce its equity value. Why would the regulatory body do such a thing to a fellow state owned company, to the benefit of a multinational oil corporations? Is BPMigas holding PGAS as prisoner, against the threat of political pressure to re-negotiate LNG selling price to Fujian China? Looks like it, but the stakes are high for PGAS. We would not be surprised to see some selling pressure on the name on the back of this development.
􀂄 If we assume US$2/mmbtu purchase price increase for one-third of PGAS supply volume, net profit may need to be cut by US$350-400mn, against current consensus estimate of US$930mn for year 2012. Currently the stock trades on 14.1x and 14.0x P/E for 2011-12F.

Astra International: Key takeaways from analyst meetings (ASII, Rp71,200, Under review) - Mandiri

􀂄 We attended ASII’s analyst meeting yesterday. Management of ASII said that July11 auto sales was very strong. Management forecasts FY11F domestic car sales volume between 800,000 and 850,000 units.
􀂄 The president director of UNTR indicated Komatsu sales volume may exceed 7,500 units in FY11F. There will not supply constraint due to Komatsu will supply more units if demand on heavy equipment keep strong.
􀂄 Regarding news that Bank Indonesia may regulate the minimum down payment for auto financing (which BI consider that 30% is an ideal limit for down payment) management of ASII said that BI can only regulate the Bank. Multi-finance companies are regulated by Ministry of Finance. Therefore, there should not be problem for auto sales.
􀂄 We are reviewing our assumptions. At Rp71,200, ASII is traded at PER FY11F and FY12F consensus of 17.1x and 14.9x, respectively.

Pembangunan Perumahan: 1H11 net profit up by 78%yoy, above ours (17.7%) and consensus’ (16.7%) FY11F estimates (PTPP, Rp620, Buy, TP: Rp780) - Mandiri

􀂄 PTPP deserves to be put on investors buy screen, given the recent news about Bank Mandiri and Pelindo II signing MoU for US$1.28bn loan. PTPP has extensive experience in building ports throughout Indonesia, and it should be the front runner to win new contracts should port building activities in Indonesia picks up.
􀂄 1H11 net profit up by 78%yoy, accounting for 17.7% of our forecast and 16.7% of consensus. Such achievement is ahead of forecast given the backloaded nature of contract award and realization. Last year in 2010, 1H net profit accounted for 12.5% of full year forecast.
􀂄 PTPP booked 1H11 revenue of Rp1.7tn (+23.7%yoy, +64.1%qoq) translating to 27.1% and 27.5% of ours and consensus’ FY11F estimates.
􀂄 By end of Jun’11 new contract obtained reached Rp5.0tn translating to 31.3% of FY target. PTPP is targeting FY11F new contract to reach Rp16.0tn (+83.9%yoy), while carry over contract is targeted to reach Rp6.0tn (+140.0%yoy). PTPP is targeting FY11F revenue to reach Rp8.4tn (+90.9%yoy).
􀂄 We only assume Rp10trillion worth of new contracts (+16.9%yoy) for PTPP this year, to arrive at our revenue estimate of Rp6.2tn (+40.3%yoy). We have a buy recommendation on PTPP, which trades at PER11F of 11.8-10.3x.

Automotive: July11 domestic car wholesale hit all-time high - Mandiri

􀂄 Domestic car wholesale volume hit all-time high in July11 at 88,751 units (+23.1%yoy, +26.5%mom). Toyota booked 30,009 units (+8.1%yoy, +14.6%mom) in July11. Daihatsu booked all time high at 14,075 units (+22.1%yoy, +27.1%mom).
􀂄 Marketing Director of Toyota Astra Motor said that car sales volume in July11 has not fully included car sales at Indonesia International Motor show.
􀂄 Indonesia International Motor Show (IIMS) was on 22-31 July 2011. During IIMS, there were car sales volumes of 11,585 units (Toyota sold 6,962 units. Nissan sold 1,524 units. Mazda sold 1.259 units. Mitsubishi sold 1,053 units. Suzuki sold 524 units. Daihatsu sold 394 units). Transaction value at IIMS around Rp3.2tn (28% higher than Rp2.5tn in 2010).

Agung Podomoro Land: Terus bertumbuh menjadi pengembang - Mandiri

Kunci berinvestasi
q Keahlian dan pengalaman yang handal. Perseroan merupakan bagian dari Agung Podomoro Grup yang berdiri pada tahun 1969, yang berarti lebih dari empat puluh tahun berkecimpung di industri poperti. Dalam 10 tahun terakhir Perseroan telah menyelesaikan 59 proyek dengan rata-rata pertahunnya adalah sebanyak lima proyek. Selain itu, pada saat krisis keuangan 2008-2009, hampir tidak ada pengembang lain yang membangun selain Perseroan.

q Grup properti terkemuka dengan pangsa terbesar. Agung Podomoro Grup memegang pangsa pasar terbesar kondominium dengan total pangsa pasar sebesar 51% dari total 72,000 unit kondominium yang terjual selama periode 2002 – Juni 2010. Diperkirakan sampai dengan tahun 2012 akan tersedia 33,600 unit kondominium di pasar superblok, dimana 60% nya merupakan kondominium yang berasal dari proyek-proyek Perseroan yang saat ini sedang berjalan.

q Tingkat kesuksesan proyek mencapai 100%. Menjadi bagian dari Agung Podomoro Group, secara historis Perseroan mampu mencapai level kesuksesan pengembangan proyek mencapai 100%. Tingkat kesuksesan yang sempurna memungkinkan Perseroan memiliki hubungan yang baik dengan supplier dan memperoleh marjin yang lebih baik. Sebagai catatan, Perseroan telah merampungkan 59 proyek dalam 10 tahun terakhir.

q Pertumbuhan yang menjanjikan. Laba bersih Perseroan melaju pesat dengan pertumbuhan sebesar 169% CAGR 2007-2010. Per 3M11, laba bersih Perseroan sudah mencapai Rp141miliar atau sebesar 50% dari pencapaian tahun 2010 yang sebesar Rp242miliar. Semua ini membawa ROAE Perseroan ke tingkat 14.4% per3M11 dari sebelumnya yang sebesar 2.1% di tahun 2007.

Risiko yang dihadapi
q Kenaikan suku bunga dapat pengaruhi permintaan apartemen
Sektor properti berkaitan erat dengan pergerakan suku bunga, terutama di segmen menengah, yang mana merupakan target segmen utama Perseroan, seperti halnya untuk proyek Green Bay, Royal Mediterania, Grand Emerald, dan Green Lake. Meskipun demikian, dengan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang kuat kami memperkirakan risiko tersebut belum akan terjadi dalam waktu dekat. Sebagai tambahan, Perseroan mengungkapkan bahwa bisnis Perseroan mulai rentan jika tingkat suku bunga mencapai 15-16%.

q Kenaikan harga bahan bangunan yang cukup pesat
Perseroan menghadapi risiko kenaikan harga bahan bangunan yang dapat mempengaruhi profitabilitas Perseroan. Mitigasi risiko yang dilakukan adalah dengan monitoring harian atas harga-harga bahan bangunan yang dibutuhkan untuk konstruksi proyek. Pengamatan yang terus menerus memungkinkan Perseroan untuk segera mengamankan bahan bangunan ketika mulai melihat potensi kenaikan harga.

BBRI:Shifting to low gear - Mandiri

We like the bank’s move to slow its loan growth this year considering its relatively low CAR and high LDR. Yet, it is worth noting that the loan mix has improved more toward higher yielding assets. Rolling valuation into 2012F caused us to upgrade our TP for the bank from Rp6,750/share previously to Rp8,100/share, thus upgraded our recommendation from neutral to buy.

Changes in forecast, upgraded to buy … BBRI’s 1H11 results came above our expectation. The bank reported higher-than-expected pre-provision profit, which we believe was a result of changes in interest income recognition post PSAK 50/55 implementation. We therefore adjusted up our forecast by 12% and 9% for FY11 and FY12, respectively. Furthermore, rolling our valuation into 2012F led us to upgrade our TP to Rp8,100/share from previously Rp6,750/share., which offers 11.7% potential upside from the current share price.

Highlight from 1H11 results: Loan growth was slow.. Even though BBRI’s loans grew quite strong at 6.5% qoq in 1Q11, the annual growth was still low at 18.8% yoy, the lowest in the past four years. We like the management’s move to slow its loan growth due to two factors (1) the bank’s relatively lower CAR compared with other large banks and (2) the bank’s high LDR position of 90.1%; which implied that a focus toward stronger liquidity will be more important given the current economic conditions. We expect the bank to book 19% yoy loan growth this year and 20% yoy next year.

… yet, loan mix improved. Yet, it is worth noting that micro loans still grew very strong at 31.5% yoy in Jun11, which was not only extended through the bank’s conventional micro units but also through BRI Teras. BBRI has been aggressively penetrating the traditional market through these BRI Teras which reached 929 units at end Jun11. Since it was launched in 2009, the loan growth through BRI Teras was quite astonishing, reaching Rp1.8tn at end Jun11. With such strong growth in micro loans, the contribution of micro loans to total loans expanded from 27.1% at end Jun10 to 31.5% at end Jun11.

While the increase in NPL is believed to be seasonal. The bank’s NPL worsened to 3.6% at end Jun11 from 3.1% at end Mar11. Yet, we believe this would be seasonal. The bank’s NPL will reach its peak in 3Q before going down at the end of the year. NPL from medium and small commercial segment remains a concern (=7.9% at end Jun11), yet in term of absolute amount, it actually dropped from Rp6.4tn at end Jun10 to Rp6.0tn at end Jun11. BBRI has initiated several efforts to deal with this NPL, including accelerating loan collections and loan restructuring as well as seizing the collaterals. We expect NPL to reach 3.0% by end 2011 and 2.6% at end 2012.