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Rabu, 03 Agustus 2011

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI, O, PT Rp8,350): 2Q11 Results – Softer Earnings Quality with Undemanding Valuations - Credit Suisse

We like BBRI fantastic franchise in the micro lending business, which is unparalleled in Indonesia, if not the world. Despite somewhat lower asset quality in 1H11, we remain a buyer of BBRI amid its compelling valuation – 2.9x 2012 PBV with 33% ROE and 12.3x 2012 PE with 16% EPS growth in 2011-13.

· BBRI 1H11 PPOP came-in at Rp10.9 tn (-3% QoQ, +22% YoY), with earnings at Rp6.8 tn (+8% QoQ +57% YoY) – 51% and 53% of CS previous and Street 2011 forecast.
· Unfortunately, BBRI earnings quality is softer-than-expected with the decline in provision expense (153% in 2Q11 vs 191% in 1Q11) and higher gross NPL ratio in 2Q11 (3.64% in 2Q11 vs 3.05% in 1Q11) – mainly driven by small commercial and medium sized loans.
· Teddy tweaked up BBRI 2011 earnings by 3% for marginally softer PPOP and lower-than-expected provision expense and maintains Outperform rating on the stock given its undemanding valuation.

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