Perusahaan Gas Negara : a concerning statement from BPMigas (PGAS, Rp4,000, Buy, TP: Rp4,960) - Mandiri

􀂄 In Bisnis Indonesia newspaper, head of BPMigas Mr.Priyono made a statement implying that the regulatory body wants PGAS to increase its gas purchase price from certain suppliers, quoting that some of its contracts are done at a price as low as US$1.8/mmbtu, against average domestic price of US$5.5/mmbtu. He said that if the government of Indonesia is about to re-negotiate LNG selling price to Fujian China, then the country will need to show policy consistency towards domestic players. Furthermore, a higher gas selling price will increase state revenue. He said that BPMigas has formally asked PGAS to re-negotiate its gas purchase price and notified the state owned ministry.
􀂄 Comment – the statement implies that BPMigas is asking PGAS to voluntarily pay more for its gas purchase, a move that will erode its margin overnight and reduce its equity value. Why would the regulatory body do such a thing to a fellow state owned company, to the benefit of a multinational oil corporations? Is BPMigas holding PGAS as prisoner, against the threat of political pressure to re-negotiate LNG selling price to Fujian China? Looks like it, but the stakes are high for PGAS. We would not be surprised to see some selling pressure on the name on the back of this development.
􀂄 If we assume US$2/mmbtu purchase price increase for one-third of PGAS supply volume, net profit may need to be cut by US$350-400mn, against current consensus estimate of US$930mn for year 2012. Currently the stock trades on 14.1x and 14.0x P/E for 2011-12F.