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Rabu, 03 Agustus 2011

Managable inflation, no more rate hike expected this year - Mandiri

Consumer price index accelerated 0.67% mom in Jul11, which was much lower than our forecast and consensus of 0.88% and 0.85%, respectively, driven by food prices and school fees inflation. Although monthly inflation was higher than last month, the annual pace continued to slow down, reaching 4.61% yoy from as high as 7% in Jan11, thanks to high base effect. More interestingly, core inflation also came down from 4.63% yoy in June 2011 to 4.55% yoy in July 2011 partly helped by the rupiah’s appreciation.

We believe the impact of high base will end ahead and likely to push yoy headline inflation higher to 5.5% yoy at year end. Moreover, it’s still below our previous forecast as inflation in the first seven months came below our expectation. Inflation could fall further should the government delay the fuel consumption rationing to next year. Tame core inflation and continuing capital inflows, we believe, will likely to lead the central bank to keep the interest rate flat for the rest of the year.

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