Market Flash: iSHARES MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index Fund (EIDO:US) PRICE: 28.530 USD Down -0.360 (-1.246%) >>> BI: Rupiah Melemah Akibat Kondisi Eropa >>> Pertemuan FED pertimbangkan langkah baru dorong ekonomi >>> KIJA akan Terbitkan MEN Valas USD150 Juta >>> PT Indika Energy Perusahaan Teladan Dunia 2011 >>> Govt Promises Revision of Cost Recovery Regulation >>> BPMigas Demands PGN to Pay US$6 per MMBTU >>> Jababeka to Raise US$150 Million from Debt Markets >>> SCG Chemicals buys Chandra Asri >>> Solusi Tunas eyes Rp380 bio IPO >>> SMR Utama scouts Rp300 bio IPO >>> Alam Sutera picks two bond arrangers >>> ASII Tetap Rajai Penjualan Mobil Agustus 2011 >>> Perusahaan Thailand kuasai Saham TPIA senilai Rp 3,76 Triliun >>> Agis Main ke Tambang, Sahamnya Masuk Dalam Pengawasan >>> ACES Mendekati The Northern Agar Mau Kurangi Kepemilikan >>> IHSG masih harus berjuang terus bertahan diatas MA200 >>> Melirik Peluang Akumulasi di Saham Perbankan >>> Analisa Saham BUMI: Kuat Bertahan & Berpeluang Kembali Uptrend >>> Analisa Saham JSMR: Bertahan Di Support, What Next? >>> INDF Tertahan Di Area Support Kuat, Berpeluang Rebound >>> ASII Break Minor Support, Sell on Strength >>> ADRO Membentuk Descending Wedges, Berpeluang Rebound Terbatas >>> Wall Street ends flat as early gains evaporate >>> Fed begins policy meeting, tiptoes toward easing >>> Fed meeting to help decide on long-term Treasuries >>> Greece Makes 'Good Progress' in Reform Talks: EC >>> China worried Europe debt crisis will hit trade >>> China could roll out 4.65tr yuan stimulus package >>> IMF sees Mideast stagnation >>> NYMEX-Crude ends higher at Oct contract expiry >>> Asian Crude Palm Oil Up On Technical Buying, Soyoil >>> Foreign net Sell - 61.785.746

Sabtu, 12 Maret 2011

Industrial metals rocked by tsunami - Commodity Online

By Amrita Mashar
AHMEDABAD (Commodity Online): Industrial metals plunged sharply in morning trades after news of a major a massive 8.9 magnitude earthquake that jolted Japan today.

World market fell on morning session pushing them a multi week decline, as investors and speculators in world market sold off metals from day high levels.

Japan's earthquake forced port closures and shutdowns of oil refineries and metal plants in the world's third-biggest economy, rattling commodity and energy markets as participants weighed up how quickly activity could return to normal.

This natural disaster could result in another sharp rise in risk aversion on markets and a continuation of yesterday's correction on commodity markets. The demand for oil could be lower, at least in the short term, because of the earthquake.

Such news feeds into the risk-negative week, also with political unrest in the Middle East and the slightly weak China import data for base metals. All of those factors have fed into sentiment towards red zone in metals commodities.

Industrial metals were already under pressure on worries about high oil prices, sparked by unrest in the Middle East, which may hurt the global economy.

Output of most industrial metals showed supportive growth in the first two months of the year. Refined copper output gained nearly 8 percent, semi-finished products and alloy output jumped 15.2 percent on the year.

The published data is quite strong, although there's concern that output growth could have outstripped demand expansion, which might cause some problems in the coming 2-3 months.

Technically on charts, Metals prices were overbought from beginning of the year 2011. Prices were expected to correct at least 15-18 percent in near term. Economical, geographical and natural calamities news helped to provide short term correction in metal price ahead this week.

Base metals prices may suffer in coming month due to such significant mix macro economy data from all over world. On another side, Precious metals are likely to extend gains as traders may start buying the commodity as a safe haven asset.

Base metals crumble under Japan quake - The Economic Times

MUMBAI: Base metal and energy prices dipped in a kneejerk reaction to Friday's calamity in Japan on fears it would affect near-term demand for commodities by the world's third largest economy. However, economists felt the tide could turn if the damage to property was large, as this would entail revival of commodity demand for reconstruction.

Copper, aluminium, lead, nickel, and crude oil ? beaten down in the last few trading sessions ? extended losses by falling 1.5% to 3% on international bourses.

?The devastation could have an impact on early greenshoots seen in Japan and seems to have had a softening impact on commodities, particularly oil, as a kneejerk reaction,? said Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank . ?However, Japan accounts for 4.5% of global trade and is not a small economy. Whether demand for goods and services shrink or rise because of reconstruction, as has been observed in Australia , will become clearer once damage assessment is completed.?

Agencies reported last month that Japan?s gross domestic product fell less than estimated in the fourth quarter in a pullback that may prove temporary as overseas demand revives production after the nation fell behind China as the world?s second-largest economy.

Copper, which leads the base metals pack on London Mercantile Exchange (LME), was down 1.7% at $9,035 a tonne, aluminium fell by 2.6% to $2,517 a tonne, lead was down by 1.5% at $2,395 a tonne, and nickel fell by 1.9% to $25,555 a tonne.

Benchmark crude oil on New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) slipped below $100 a barrel, falling 2.9% to $99.72, as major refineries were shut down after disaster struck Japan.

SK Joshi, director (finance), BPCL, said margins could rise if refinery throughput is above 20 tonnes a day, but he did not expect the calamity to have a major impact on crude price. Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with rating agency Care, said demand for all commodities tended to rise after a large scale natural calamity. ?We have to assess the damage before making any comment but normally events of such scale should boost commodity prices rather than pull them down. Japan is a net importer of most commodities and if the damage to property is great we could expect good demand for food and metals, which could be bullish for prices,? he said.

Quake and tsunami a blow to fragile Japan economy - Associated Press

Disaster a blow to already fragile Japanese economy; rebuilding could be a boost later
Paul Wiseman and Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writers, On Friday March 11, 2011, 5:40 pm

The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on Friday forced multinational companies to close factories, fight fires and move workers, inflicting at least short-term damage on the Japan's fragile economy.

Assessing the full economic impact was impossible in the hours after the quake. But traffic clogged streets, trains stopped, flights were grounded and phone service was disrupted or cut off. U.S. companies DuPont and Procter & Gamble said communications problems made it hard to gauge the effect on their operations in Japan.

Japanese stocks plunged. The benchmark Nikkei index fell 1.7 percent, and the Japanese market was only open for about 15 minutes after the quake.

Still, the damage to Japan's economy, the world's third-largest, wasn't nearly as severe as it might have been. The devastated northeastern coastal region is far less developed than the Tokyo metro area.

"Something similar hitting Tokyo Bay would have been unimaginable," said Michael Smitka, an economist who specializes in Japan at Washington and Lee University.

And in the long run, the disaster could help the Japanese economy as reconstruction projects put people back to work.

Natural disasters "do eventually boost output," said David Hensley, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. The 1989 San Francisco earthquake and the 1994 Northridge quake outside Los Angeles, for example, ultimately helped the local California economies, he said.

Takuji Okubo, an analyst at French bank Societe Generale, said Japan's economy will probably take a hit in March and then rebound strongly. Japanese consumers will need to replace lost cars and appliances, and reconstruction will start.

"The earthquake will most likely lead to stronger growth in 2011, rather than weaker," Okubo said.

Okubo noted that industrial production in Japan fell 2.6 percent in January 1995, the month of the devastating earthquake near the city of Kobe. But it rebounded 2.2 percent the following month and 1 percent the month after that.

Overall, Japan's economy grew 1.9 percent that year and 2.6 percent in 1996, Okubo said -- faster than the anemic pace it had been growing. In 1996, private consumption rose at double the rate of an average year between 1995 and 2004.

On Friday, Japanese auto companies halted production at some assembly plants. But it was not clear whether the catastrophe would have a major effect on the global auto industry. Japan's central Aichi prefecture, site of much of the country's auto manufacturing, is far from the disaster zone in northeastern Japan.

Analysts said the damage to production seemed to be limited. But the status of the ports and roads that automakers rely on to move their vehicles remains unclear.

"I don't think in the end it's going to be more than a passing impact," said Ephraim Levy, an auto industry analyst with Standard & Poor's Equity Research. "It would mostly impact Japanese sales, including exports. Some of that may just be deferred rather than lost."

Levy cautioned, though, that it was still hard to assess the damage to Japanese infrastructure. more ...

Japan earthquake: Production halted at factories - BBC

Production has been halted at many factories in Japan, as companies assess the damage of the earthquake and tsunami on the north-east coast. Sony, Toyota, Nissan and Honda are among firms to have closed plants.

Economists say the earthquake and tsunami could have a "profound" impact on Japan's economy - the world's third largest - although it is too early to make any judgements. But they say the damage is unlikely to be as bad as the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Macqarie Economics Research said that the epicentre of the latest earthquake was well offshore, while in 1995 it was very close to the city of Kobe.
It also suggested that the area most affected by this disaster was less important economically than Kobe, which was one of Japan's most important ports.
Capital Economics said that Japan was now "much better prepared for this kind of disaster than it was in 1995".

The Kobe earthquake left more than 6,400 people dead, about 300,000 homeless, and caused damage estimated at 10 trillion yen ($100bn at the time).
'Bad timing' The earthquake, which measured 8.9 on the Richter scale, and the 10-metre high tsunami, has shut down ports, power plants and refineries.
Capital Economics said that the timing of the current disaster "could not have been much worse" for the Japanese economy, which contracted at the end of last year.
It said a large part of the rebuilding costs would have be to paid for by the government, adding to its already large debt problem.

Its government debt is now three times the size of its GDP (economic output), and twice the level it was in 1995. But Capital Economics added that Japan was better prepared than most countries for such disasters. It also pointed out that although economic activity usually falls following major incidents, subsequent reconstruction work had in other cases boosted demand and helped the economy to bounce bank. It said it expected the scale to be similar to the Niigata quake in 2004, which cost $30bn.

GDP fell by 0.4% afterwards, but then rose by nearly 1% in the following six months.
David Cohen, a Singapore-based analyst at regional economic commentators Action Economics, agreed. "In the short term, the damage could even knock off almost 1% of the country's GDP," he said. "Longer-term though, it will balance out, through the rebuilding exercise which will be positive for growth will all the construction taking place. It could turn positive in about 12 months."

There will also be concerns about damage to productive capacity, Mr Cohen said, and industrial production may suffer as a consequence of the damage caused.
Electronics giant Sony has six factories - four in Miyagi and two in Fukushima - in the north-east of the country, the region which suffered the brunt of the quake.
"Production in all factories has been halted for now," said Sue Tanaka, of the firm's communications department.

"The company does not know how long it will take to restart operations. It depends on the extent of the damage that has been caused. We are still awaiting an update on what kind of devastation has taken place." The factories mainly produce components for use in things like Blu-ray players, and all employees have been safely evacuated. Toyota Motors said production had been halted at three plants, and also said that there had been damage to some dealerships, and that they were currently checking what the situation was with their suppliers. Nissan has closed four factories, and said two workers had been injured, while Honda has stopped production at two plants and said that one employee had been killed and about 30 injured.

Power down
Further afield an oil refinery near Tokyo caught fire, causing a massive blaze.
And activity at the major port in the nearby city of Yokohama has been disrupted by the earthquake, suffering a loss of power at its terminal.

"At the moment they are trying to get power back but it's unlikely to happen today," said Boon Lee Lur of shipping company Neptune Orient Lines.
The city of Sendai in the north of Japan, which was the worst hit by the disaster, saw fires break out and its port overrun by the tidal wave.
The cost of clearing up the damage done could run into the billions, according to HSBC Private Bank's chief Asia strategist, Arjuna Mahendaran, and that is likely to add further to the Japanese government's ballooning debts.
But rating agency Moody's was more upbeat about Japan's capacity to deal with the quake.

"In a big economy like Japan, the impact of a natural disaster can be absorbed economically by the government and private insurance, so there will be no impact on government's finances and therefore Japan's sovereign rating," it said.

Asian Crude Palm Oil Extends Losses Amid Fears Of Japan Quake - PalmOil HQ

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange extended losses Friday mostly tracking crude and the Dalian soy complex, after a strong earthquake hit Japan, weighing on commodity demand.

Concerns about inflationary pressures in China, with the CPI estimated to have risen 4.9% in February compared with a year earlier, also led to a bearish market sentiment, said market participants.

CBOT May soyoil settled 0.3% lower at 56.93 cents a pound overnight as USDA raised its soybean harvest forecast for Brazil. The contract was trading 81 points lower in screen trade around 0945 GMT.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR95 lower at MYR3,364 a metric ton, off an intraday high of MYR3,483/ton.

A trading executive in Kuala Lumpur pegged immediate support for BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures at MYR3,300/ton levels in the next few sessions.

CPO prices may have peaked and “are likely to come off during the course of the year as we expect production to grow in light of better fertilization last year and a likely return to ENSO (El Nino/La Nina-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions by the middle of this year,” said Macquarie Wednesday, pegging CPO estimates on an average for 2011 at MYR3,425/ton, and at MY3,050/ton for 2012.

But the key risks to the thesis would be a significant shift in U.S. acreage away from soybeans this summer even though it’s unlikely and a spike in crude oil prices, which may increase biodiesel demand, the bank said.

Malaysia’s February inventory data released Thursday by the government-linked Malaysian Palm Oil Board is bearish for CPO prices, as supply tightness has eased compared with January, said Daiwa Capital Markets.

The MPOB estimated end-February stock levels rose 4.2% to 1.48 million tons, compared with market expectations for inventories of 1.39 million-1.40 million tons.

Output in the world’s second-largest producer after Indonesia rose 3.5% from the previous month, to 1.09 million tons, according to MPOB.

Traders are expecting fresh cues from an oilseeds conference in the U.S. commencing March 13 where top vegoil analyst James Fry is scheduled to speak.

Fry had given a bearish outlook at Bursa Malaysia’s Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook this week, saying that BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures may fall to MYR2,250/ton in the second half as CPO output rises in Malaysia and Indonesia and inflation-fighting measures in various countries crimp demand.

The most active rupiah-denominated CPO contract for May on the Indonesia Commodity & Derivatives Exchange was last traded 0.9% lower at IDR10,055 a kilogram around 0955 GMT.

In the cash market, refined palm olein for April shipment was traded at $1,205-$1,207.50/ton and July, August, September shipment was traded at $1145/ton, free on board Malaysian ports, said a Singapore-based physical market broker.

Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR60 lower at MYR3,500/ton.

Jumat, 11 Maret 2011

Coal: Another flash flood warning in Queensland - DBS Vickers

* Spot coal price to remain high due to bad weather in Australia
* Benefits miners with high spot exposure - Yanzhou (1171 HK), Shenhua (1088), ITMG (ITMG IJ) and PTBA (PTBA IJ)
* Price increase should more than offset the impact of lower volume from Felix for Yanzhou

Bad weather continues in Australia. Based on news report, a huge band of monsoon rain hanging over a coastal area south of Cairns has prompted flash flood warnings from the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland state. The fresh floodwaters have caused authorities to close schools on Thursday in at least one affected town. Leading to higher coal price. The bad weather in Australia will continue to limit supplies from Australia, which was already badly affected by
the severe floods in late 2010. Australia is the largest exporter of coal in the world, and supplies from Queensland account for c.20% of Australian exports. We expect thermal coal spot price to stay high at US$110-130/t due to the potential flash floods that may damage coal
mines, as well as railway and port facilities. The higher price benefits both the coking and thermal coal players, especially the coking coal players due the larger exports of coking coal from Australia.

Benefits miners with high spot exposure; Indonesian miners to benefit more. The higher spot price benefit miners with high spot exposure such as ITMG (60%), Yanzhou (50%), Shenhua (35%) and PTBA (35%). We believe Indonesian miners will benefit more from the supply shortages from
Australia due to the larger proportion of exports, average at 80% against 10% for miners in China. The export destinations for Indonesian miners also similar to Australian miners.

Net positive impact on Yanzhou. Australian operations are estimated to account for c.20% of Yanzhou's expected output of 51m tons in 2011. Of which, only two out of four mines at its Felix subsidiary - Yarrabi and Minerva (to be sold) - are located in Queensland, and estimated to
contribute a mere 5% of Yanzhou's total output. We expect the potential reduction in volumes to be more than offset by rising spot prices.

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ), in the hot seat - CLSA Indo

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ): In the Hot Seat, maintain SELL, with TP Rp6,409 indicating a 14% downside

Dee Senaratne and I had the opportunity to meet up with Pak Jusman Djamal, the new Chairman of Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ). Pak Jusman arrived at TLKM about one month ago after previously being the transportation minister.

Being the chairman of TLKM is not an easy task.

approach and seeking feedbacks from investment community.

The new chairman likened the hypercompetitive telco industry to that of the aviation industry with low cost carriers having a similar negative on prices and earnings in that sector.

Overall, Dee believes that the upside risks to capex outweigh potential higher dividends. Reiterates SELL as defensive nature slowly dissipating.

Key points from report:
· New chairman requested to meet us due to our lone SELL call after just 1 month into the job
· Pak Jusman outlines TLKM’s twin missions: (1) contributing to society via telecom services and (2) creating shareholder value. First priority, however, is to create shareholder value.
· The two missions are not mutually exclusive and we think balancing them is difficult.
· Hard to see the attractiveness of TLKM's aggressively fiberising Indo via an FTTH (fibre to the home) roll-out across major cities (412 cities) by 2014.
· Chairman was willing to listen to our suggestion of increasing pay-out ratio to boost yields
· 'Defensive' characteristics are in question, and consensus continues to revise earnings downwards
· Positive note: Cambodia deal is still fluid. TLKM was non-committal to this acquisition.
· Maintain SELL call, with TP 6,409 indicating a 14% downside

Indonesia Infra Update: toll road tariff; MRT & land reform - Deutsche Bank

A bi-annual tariff adjustment on 13 toll roads by September 2011
The government plans to increase tariff for 13 toll roads by 10-12%, which is inline with the current tariff regulation where the government guarantees tariff adjutment every two years based on inflation. These toll roads include:
A) Jasa Marga: 1. Belmera, 2. Jagorawi, 3. Jakarta-Tangerang, 4. Jakarta Inner City Toll Road, 5. Pondok Aren-Ulujami, 6. Padalarang-Cileunyi, 7. Cipularang, 8. Palimanan-Kaci, 9. Semarang, 10. Surabaya-Gempol, 11. Jakarta Outer Ring Road and 12. Bogor Ring Road, and B) Marga Mandala Sakti (Astra Int'l): Tangerang-Merak.

Prequalification tender for Jakarta's MRT project
Ten contractors from domestic and Japan have expressed their interests to participate in the prequalification tender for Jakarta's MRT project that will be held in the next 1-2 months with expected contract signing in April-May 2012 and project completion in 2016. There are three MRT routes that would be developed - 1) Jakarta (Central): 27km; 2) Jakarta-Bekasi-Cikarang (East): 18-30km, and 3) Jakarta-Tangerang-Karawaci (West): 16-25km. Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) will finance this project.

Parliament has begun to review the proposed land acquisition bill
Since yesterday, the Commission V in the parliament has started the review process on the proposed land acquisition bill, which was submitted by the government on 15 December 2010. This review is scheduled for completion as soon as 8 April 2011 or June/July 2011 at the lattest in a bid to pass this bill into Law in mid-2011. The members of Commission V appear to have common goal to pass-on this proposed bill to speed-up land procurement process for infrastructure realization in the country. Thus far, the disagreement is localized around the inclusion of land acquisition for private sector in this bill.

Regional plantations Europe-US marketing feedback – turning bearish - Macquarie Research

􀂃 We visited about 60 clients across Europe and the US over the past two weeks to discuss the outlook for grains, oilseeds and CPO. Many clients have reduced their equities exposure in the plantations space. However, most are positive on a medium term structural story of demand growth
outstripping supply and prices staying relatively higher compared to historical levels.

􀂃 Have prices peaked – was the key question: Given the strong price performance of soft commodities including CPO over the past six months, most clients questioned whether prices have already peaked. We highlighted that we do believe that CPO prices have peaked and are likely to come off during the course of the year, as we expect production to grow in light of better fertilisation last year and a likely return to ENSO neutral conditions by the middle of this year. Most investors agreed with our analysis. The key risks to our thesis would be a significant shift in the US acreage away from soybeans this summer (which we believe is unlikely) and a spike in crude oil prices, which could increase biodiesel demand.

􀂃 At what point does crude oil - CPO correlation start to work again?
We highlighted to clients that a spike in crude oil prices following the tensions in the Middle East could increase discretionary blending of biodiesel. We believe that at current CPO prices, WTI prices of above US$125/bbl would make it economical to use biodiesel again. See Fig 1 for CPO break-even prices at various crude oil price levels.

􀂃 More interest in Singaporean names, worries over Wilmar:
Of all the stocks listed across Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore, most clients preferred to look at the Singapore listed names due to their strong production growth prospects and good liquidity. Among the Malaysian companies, KL Kepong was a favoured pick due to strong production growth prospects and focus on the core business. We found that clients were most negative on Wilmar (WIL SP, NR, CP: S$5.31) due to negative soy crush margins in China at the moment, and risk of further earnings downgrades if China does not lift the price caps on veg oils and venture into the Chinese property market.

􀂃 We are Neutral on the plantations sector for 2011. We see increasing production start to pressure prices, while a tight soy complex and rising crude oil prices could support prices. Our preference, therefore, is to own stocks that are still likely to grow their earnings in 2012, despite our assumption of an 11% decline in CPO prices next year or at least where the earnings decline in minimal. Based on this, our top picks are KL Kepong in Malaysia, London Sumatra in Indonesia and New Britain Palm Oil in London. We would be taking profits on IOI Corp, where we see limited growth prospects and on Genting Plantations, which has been the 2010 outperformer.

Roubini Sees Double-Dip Recession for Advanced Economies If Oil Hits $140 - Bloomberg (Reminder)

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said an increase in oil prices to $140 a barrel will cause some advanced economies to slide back into recession.

Underlying how fragile the global economic recovery is, Roubini said the European Central Bank may be making a mistake by raising interest rates “too soon” when debt-ridden countries on the euro region’s periphery struggle to restore the competitiveness of exports.

“If you had the oil price going up to where it was in the summer of 2008, at $140 a barrel, at that point some of the advanced economies will start to double dip,” he told reporters in Dubai today. “In the U.S., where growth is accelerating fast, a 15 to 20 percent increase in oil prices, there won’t be double dip, but growth reaching a stalled speed again.” LINK ...

Indonesia’s Exchange Plans to Extend Trading Hours By One Hour From July - Bloomberg

The Indonesia Stock Exchange plans to begin trading an hour earlier by July to align itself with regional markets, President Director Ito Warsito said.

The bourse is seeking approval for the extension from Indonesian regulators, Warsito said today in an interview in Tokyo. The move will bring Indonesia’s trading hours more in line with other Asian markets such as Hong Kong and Singapore, and may boost trading volumes, he said.

“Right now, the emerging market is more dependent on what happened in the morning in Hong Kong and Singapore because we open later,” Warsito said on the sidelines of a conference organized by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. “But if we open the market earlier, global investors will already have a trading strategy in Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia, unlike right now, where Indonesia is left behind.”

Warsito’s comments on the bourse’s plans come the same week that the Hong Kong exchange extended its own hours to complement China’s trading times. Hong Kong’s trading day from March 7 began 30 minutes earlier while the lunch break was reduced to 90 minutes from two hours.

Trading hours in Jakarta are from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. local time, with a 1 1/2-hour break from Monday to Thursday and a 2 1/2-hour break on Friday for prayers. Stock trading in Singapore starts at 8 a.m. Jakarta time and 8:30 a.m. in Hong Kong.
Attracting Investors

“Longer trading hours will enable us to synchronize trading with the regional markets,” said Soni Wibowo, vice president of PT Bahana TCW Investment Management in Jakarta, which manages about $2 billion. “But, I don’t think it will be what attracts more investors. Investors are focusing more on the fundamentals and attractiveness of the Indonesian market when deciding to invest, not the trading hours.”

About 3 billion shares traded each day on average this year in Jakarta, compared with 163.6 billion in Hong Kong, Asia’s third-biggest stock market after Japan and China.

Indonesia’s bourse also expects the Jakarta Composite index (JCI) to rise 25 percent to 30 percent in 2011 as profits for listed companies grow, and as the number of initial public offerings increase, Warsito said. The stock gauge has fallen 3.1 percent this year, after surging 46 percent last year.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anna Kitanaka in Tokyo

Moody's kembali menggunting peringkat utang Spanyol - Kontan Online

LONDON. Peringkat utang Spanyol kembali digunting oleh Moody's Investor Service dari Aa1 menjadi AA2. Prospek peringkat AA2 adalah negatif.

Keputusan ini diambil Moody's karena biaya restrukturisasi perbankan melebihi asumsi yang dipatok pemerintah. Hal tersebut mengarah pada peningkatan rasio utang publik lebih lanjut.

"Kami khawatir dengan kemampuan pemerintah Spanyol dalam menyelesaikan krisis ekonomi. Struktur keuangan Spanyol secara umum masih akan terganggu," ujar Moody's.

CPO futures fall after bearish export data - Business Times


CRUDE palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed lower yesterday on selling pressure following bearish export data, dealers said.

Societe Generale de Surveillance said Malaysia's palm oil exports for March 1-10 fell 16.6 per cent to 355,485 tonnes from 426,163 tonnes shipped during the same period last month.

The March 2011 CPO futures contract fell RM123 to RM3,515 per tonne while April 2011, May 2011 and June 2011 declined by RM126 each to RM3,492, RM3,459 and RM3,432, respectively.


LONDON: Brent crude futures slipped yesterday but remained above US$115 (US$1.00 = RM3.03) a barrel, as forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi launched a fresh bombardment on the eastern Libyan oil town of Ras Lanuf, triggering fears of long-term damage to the country’s oil infrastructure.

Bombs or missiles were landing a few kilometres from Ras Lanuf oil refinery, a Reuters witness said, a day after an oil pipeline leading to Es Sider was damaged.

Brent crude for April were 59 cents lower to US$115.35 a barrel at 1050 GMT after soaring almost US$3 on Wednesday.

US crude futures fell 44 cents to US$103.95 after touching a 2½-year peak of almost US$107 earlier this week.

Attention is still focused on Libyan oil exports after an official from the East Libya oil company AGOCO said it is making arrangements to market oil directly to foreign buyers.


THE Malaysian rubber market closed lower yesterday despite steadier rubber prices on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, dealers said.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 36.5 sen to 1,369.5 sen per kg, while the latex-in-bulk fell 17 sen to 1,002.0 sen per kg.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 rose 20.5 sen to 1,379.0 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk decreased 13 sen to 994.5 sen per kg.


THE tin price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed lower by US$845 to US$29,750 per tonne yesterday in line with the downtrend on the London Metal Exchange (LME), dealers said.

They said buyers also stayed on the sidelines amid the current political unrest in Libya.

The tin price on LME declined sharply US$1,075 to US$29,525 per tonne. At the opening level on the KLTM, no bids were recorded but sellers offered 101 tonnes.

Turnover at the closing declined to 15 tonnes from the 35 tonnes on Wednesday with trading dominated by European and local players.

The price differential between the KLTM and the LME widened to a premium of US$690 per tonne from US$460 a tonne on Wednesday. — Agencies

BoE mempertahankan suku bunga acuan di level 0,5% - Kontan Online

LONDON. Bank of England (BoE) kembali mempertahankan suku bunga bunga acuan pada rekor terendah. Bank sentral Inggris masih khawatir terhadap ancaman inflasi yang bisa menghambat laju ekonomi.

Komite Kebijakan Moneter, dipimpin oleh Gubernur Mervyn King, menetapkan suku bunga sebesar 0,5% selama 25 bulan terakhir. Langkah BoE sudah diprediksi 61 ekonom yang survei Bloomberg News.

Keputusan datang seminggu setelah Presiden Bank Sentral Eropa Jean-Claude Trichet mengatakan kawasan euro paling cepat akan menaikkan suku bunga bulan depan. Sebetulnya, tiga pejabat Inggris menginginkan ada kenaikan suku bunga.

Poundsterling memperpanjang penurunan terhadap dollar AS setelah keputusan itu diumumkan dan turun 0,3% menjadi US$ 1,6162 per 12:03 pm di London.

Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

FITCH credit briefing: Indonesia on cusp of investment grade

(The following was released by the rating agency)

March 09 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings will host its annual Indonesia Credit Briefing in Jakarta on Thursday, 17 March. Fitch revised the Outlook on Indonesia's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings to Positive from Stable on 24 February, reflecting favourable macroeconomic prospects and a strengthening credit profile. This places Indonesia on the cusp of an upgrade to investment-grade status,
joining the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. The briefing will include presentations by Fitch's senior analysts from the Sovereign, Financial Institutions and Corporate Finance groups. Also, the event will feature a keynote address by H.E. Bapak Agus Martowardojo, Minister of Finance of the Republic of

The full agenda is available at

The venue details and contacts are as follows:

Fitch Ratings Credit Briefing

Thursday, 17 March 2011


Four Seasons Hotel, Jakarta

Ikat Room

Jalan H.R. Rasuna Said, Jakarta 12920

Admission is complimentary, but pre-registration is

required. Members of the press should register with the Fitch

media relations contacts listed at the bottom of this press


Interested market participants should register with

Benedicta Setyorini, +62 21 2902 6403/

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Strong Catalyst Will Help ITMG to Bounce Back - AAA Securities

Lemahnya kinerja keuangan ITMG yang disebabkan oleh tingginya biaya demurrage yang mencapai US$23 juta, hutang derivatif sebesar US$52 juta, yang akan jatuh tempo pada akhir tahun 2011 akan di kompensasi oleh earning catalyst ITMG di tahun 2011, yang terpenting diantaranya adalah peningkatan efisiensi dan produktivitas serta peningkatan ASP sebesar 15%. Karenanya kami meningkatkan target price kami dari Rp55,800 menjadi Rp61,000. Kami juga akan merubah rekomendasi kami dari HOLD menjadi BUY. Target price kami mengimplementasikan 13.5X PE. Dan saat ini saham ITMG diperdagangkan di PE9.3X. Selain itu ITMG juga menawarkan dividen yield sebesar 5,4% yang diklaim sebagai yang tertinggi di industrinya.

4Q10: ITMG Financial Performance Below Our Expectations
Pada 4Q10 kinerja ITMG secara keseluruhan tidak sesuai dengan target tahun lalu kami dalam beberapa aspek. Diantaranya, ITMG gagal mempertahankan laba bersih perusahaan sebesar US$336 juta, dan turun menjadi US$204 juta (-39% YoY). Secara triwulanan ITMG hanya menghasilkan laba bersih sebesar US$18 juta, atau mengalami penurunan sebesar 66% QoQ. Hasil tersebut di bawah (59%) estimasi kami, dan dibawah estimasi (60%) konsesus. Ditinjau dari sisi laba operasi, ITMG juga mencatat penurunan sebesar 17% YoY, yang menurun dari US$435juta menjadi US$362juta, ini jauh di bawah dari perkiraan estimasi (70%) kami. Menurut manajemen ITMG, underperformance dalam aspek keuangan ini, disebabkan terutama oleh faktor-faktor sebagai berikut: 1) curah hujan yang tinggi, yang mengakibatkan biaya demurrage meningkat menjadi US$23 juta. 2) Naiknya harga bahan bakar, dikarenakan oleh ketidakstabilan kondisi politik global. Harga rata-rata diesel meningkat menjadi US$0.72 per liter ditahun 2010, dibandingkan dengan harga rata ditahun 2009 hanya
sebesar US$0,52 per liter. 3) Kerugian derivatif sebesar US$52 juta, dari transaksi
kontrak swap batubara. Berdasarkan laporan keuangan FY2010, ITMG memiliki dua instrumen derivatif, yaitu transaksi swap batubara dan transaksi swap bahan bakar. Dari transaksi tersebut hanya 23% yang merupakan transaksi derivatif bersifat hedging dan sisanya bersifat non-hedging. Hal terakhir yang kami rasa telah menyebabkan kerugian derivatif yang cukup besar.

Revision in our assumptions for 2011FY
Berdasarkan laporan keuangan Perusahaan, total produksi ITMG mencapai 22 mt, angka ini dibawah estimasi (92%) kami, yang mencapai 23,9 Mt sehingga kami mengubah asumsi produksi kami untuk 2011FY dari 26,5Mt ke 26,3 Mt. Di sisi lain, kenaikan harga minyak dunia juga meningkatkan asumsi kami untuk harga minyak dari US$85/barrel menjadi US$100 yang menyebabkan peningkatan biaya bahan bakar dari US$0.69 / liter menjadi US$0.82 / liter. Disisi pendapatan harga batubara acuan diprediksi meningkat sebesar 15% dari US $ 100 ke US $ 115. Hal ini menyebabkan ASP meningkat dari US$ 81,7 per ton menjadi US$94,1 per ton.

Catalyst 2011
Kami memprediksi kinerja ITMG akan lebih baik di tahun 2011 – 2012, hal ini dikarenakan oleh beberapa faktor:1) Tingkat produksi yang lebih tinggi, meskipun hujan akan masih menjadi tantangan utama ITMG. Driver peningkatan produktivitas ini akan datang Tambang Indominco, yang kami perkirakan akan memberikan kontribusi sebesar 15Mt hingga 16Mt di tahun 2011f – 2012. Selain itu ITMG telah menambah beberapa kontraktor untuk beroperasi di lokasi tambang Trubaindo, yang akan memberikan kontribusi sebesar 7,3 Mt per tahun. 2) Tingginya ASP kami, yang dikarenakan oleh iklim global yang tidak menentu, dan dapat mempengaruhi supply batubara dunia. 3) Permintaan batubara cenderung meningkat di tahun 2011 – 2012, yang disebabkan oleh meningkatnya GDP di negara-negara Asia, yang diperkirakan akan meningkat sebesar 5%. Cina juga diprediksikan akan meningkatkan konsumsi batubara sebesar 10% - 12%. 4) peningkatan efisiensi, hal ini disebabkan oleh telah beroperasinya pembangkit tenaga listrik di Bontang. 5) Batubara ITMG yang memiliki kualitas yang tinggi. Hal ini dapat menjaga tingkat permintaan domestik maupun internasional.

Valuation and Outlook

Berdasarkan faktor diatas, kami memprediksikan bahwa laba bersih ITMG di tahun 2011 – 2012 akan meningkat sebesar lebih dari 50%. Karenanya kami meningkatkan target price kami dari Rp55,800 menjadi Rp61,000 dan kami juga akan merubah rekomendasi kami dari HOLD menjadi BUY. Target price kami mengimplementasikan 13.5X PE. Dan saat ini saham ITMG diperdagangkan di PE9.3X. selain itu ITMG juga menawarkan dividen yield sebesar 5,4% yang diklaim sebagai yang tertinggi di industri.

MAYORA INDAH TBK Growth and Profitability Remain Intact

3rd Quarter results are encouraging
As of September 2010, Mayora has booked total sales of Rp 5,123 billion, up 43.7% compared to the 3rd quarter sales in 2009. Net profit also increased by 20.1% YOY to Rp 322 billion. Mayora has benefited from strong domestic consumption, particularly during the Ramadhan period. We expect sales to grow strongly in the 4th quarter, approaching Christmas, thus we have upgraded our estimated FY2010
revenue to Rp 6,688 billion.

Going strong internationally
As of 3Q2010, Mayora’s export sales amounted to Rp 1,470 billion, and accounted for 28.7% of total revenue. Export sales contribution to total revenue has grown strongly, considering in 2005, export sales only made up 5% of the total revenue. The rise in export sales shows that Mayora has been successful in penetrating the international market, and that it has competitive and quality products to compete
globally. Currently, Mayora’s key export product is Kopiko, its famous coffee candy product, which is now available in over 50 countries, and Torabika Coffee. In future, growing export sales will help boost Mayora’s revenue and profile internationally.

Possible margin reduction
Mayora’s profit margin has been under pressure particularly due to the rise in the company’s cost of raw materials such as wheat (+25.6%), coffee (+71.9%), sugar (+40.4%) and CPO (±41%), and the rise in operating cost mainly due to the higher marketing cost. As of 3Q2010, marketing cost reached Rp 425 billion, almost double the marketing cost in the same period last year, as Mayora looks to maintain or even increase its market share domestically and also internationally. Cost of raw materials made up almost 67% of total sales whilst marketing cost made up around 6.8% of total sales. Therefore, Mayora’s margin will decline if the rise in these two costs is not offset by a proportionate price increase. We forecast net profit margin to be in the region of 6.5%-7% for 2011

Maintaining BUY recommendation
Based on Mayora’s strong performance up until 3Q2010, we have raised our estimate for FY2010 revenue to Rp 6,688 billion, and raise our revenue growth forecast from 22% CAGR to 27% CAGR by 2012. Profit margin is forecast to be within 6.7%-7.1% range, due to the strength in the commodities price and increase in competition. As a result, we have upgraded our previous target price to Rp 13,400.

Bukit Asam (Outperform) - Finally PLN contract is settled! - MACQUARIE RESEARCH

§ PTBA reported its FY10 financial and operational results, with reported net profit down 26% YoY from Rp2.7tr in 2009 to Rp2.0tr in 2010, reflecting lower domestic coal pricing and Rupiah appreciation. The net profit figure was in line with our forecast, but came 6% below consensus.

§ Further, the company has also reported that the pricing for domestic coal with PLN is now completed. The average PLN contracts come in at Rp777k (up 21% YoY) and also 12% ahead of our expectations, implying a benchmark price of +/-US$120/t. This reiterates our Outperform recommendation on the stock.

§ FY10 sales volumes came slightly below expectation. FY10 sales volume came in at 12.95mt (up 4% YoY), which was slightly below our forecast of 13.1mt, mainly due to the lower than expected production at the IPC mine in Kalimantan (as it was affected by the severe weather conditions throughout the year). The company's relatively low YoY volume growth was also due to lower than expected capacity at the existing railway (railway capacity only grew by 3% YoY to 10.8mt vs. the original expectation of 11.5mt).

§ …and lower price is offset by lower costs. The company's FY10 ASP came in at US$67.5/t (down 2%YoY and lower than our US$69/t forecast), as lower domestic prices were offset by higher export prices. This in turn was offset by lower production costs, as COGS come in at US$36/t vs. our forecast of US$37/t.

§ 2011 production outlook appears solid. The company aims to increase its coal sales volumes from 12.95mt in 2010 to 16.8mt in 2011. This is higher than our 16.2mt forecast. The projected YoY sales volume increase is mainly driven by the increase in coal transportation capacity from 10.8mt last year to 13.6mt as well as ramp-up at the IPC mine.

§ +/-5% upside to our forecast. Assuming the higher domestic PLN contracts and sales volumes, adjusting for US$130-135/t JFY2011 contracts (vs. our US$145/t forecast), we still see roughly +/-5% upside to our current forecast and 15% upside to consensus. On this, the company trades on 11x 2011 PER and US$2.4/t EV/reserves (vs. the sector at US$12/t).

Earnings and target price revision
§ No change.

Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp 28,000 based on a PER methodology.
§ Catalyst: Completion of land acquisition for parallel railway project, increasing production and coal price

Action and recommendation
§ We reaffirm our Outperform recommendation on the stock with a Rp28,000 price target, given its strong long-term production growth outlook ( upon completion of ramp-up at the existing railway and completion of the parallel railway).

Nippon Indosari Tbk Fundamentally Strong - Sinarmas Sekuritas

Third quarter results are on track with our expectation
By the end of September 2010, the company has booked unaudited net profit of Rp 63.2 billion, up 63.7% YoY. Increase in net profit is supported by the growth in revenue with revenue growing 22.5% YoY to Rp 428.8 billion, and an improvement in company’s margin. Revenue and net profit has achieved 65.6% and 75% of our 2010 FY estimates. Economic condition remained strong in 4Q2010, and thus we are confident that FY2010 results will be in line with our estimate.

Penetration into untapped market
Nippon Indosari is in the process of finalizing the development of its two new factories in Semarang—expected to start operation in February 2011, and Medan. New factory in Medan will give the company access to Sumatra, which is previously untapped, as it currently only serves Java, Lampung and Bali area. In 2012, the company is looking to start the process of building a new factory in West Java. Once
these new factories start to operate, the company will be able to extend its products to a wider population.

We do not expect significant margin erosions
Main concern for the company is the rising cost of raw material as it accounted for almost 80% of the company’s cost of production. Sugar has risen 40.4%, whilst wheat—main ingredient for flour has risen 50% since January 2010. However it seems that the company has been able to pass on the rising cost by increasing the selling price of its products. It has increased its selling price by ±10% since mid 2010.
As a result, the company’s margin remain strong as of 3Q2010. Although selling price has been increased, price still remains affordable for its customers, judging by the ability of the companies to increase revenue which partly also
driven by increase in sales volume.

Maintaining BUY recommendation—TP upgrade to Rp 3,000
We have revised and upgrade our valuation of Nippon Indosari in 2011 to Rp 3,000. At current price, ROTI is trading at 21x P/E 2011 and 16x P/E 2012 based on our forecast. We see the company’s growth prospect remaining intact, especially with the opening of new factories which enables Nippon Indosari to tap new market potential, and the company’s proven ability to maintain margin in a period of rising
cost of raw materials driven by rising commodities price. The company also has robust balance sheet with no interest bearing debt to support its expansion plan. In addition, the company is currently trading at a discount, thus we recommend buy.

Djarum Beli 4,88% Saham BCA Rp8.200 /Saham - TopSaham

Grup Djarum melalui Farindo Investment dikabarkan akan melakukan pembelian atas 4,88% saham PT Bank Central Asia Tbk (BBCA) untuk kembali menguasai saham bank tersebut sebesar 50%.

Saat ini, Djarum menguasai 11.125.990.000 (45,12%) saham BBCA. Kabar yang beredar di pelaku pasar, Djarum akan membeli 1.201.515.000 (4,88%) saham BBCA.

Belum diketahui perkiraan harga transaksi ini. Jika Djarum melakukan pembelian melalui pasar sekunder, harga bisa melesat hingga Rp 8.200 per saham.

Hingga saat ini, manajemen BBCA belum dapat dikonfirmasi untuk meminta keterangan lebih lanjut.

Sejak akhir Januari 2011, harga saham BBCA telah menanjak cukup tajam 26,85% sebesar dari level Rp 5.400 pada 24 Januari 2011 menjadi Rp 6.850 pada 9 Maret 2011.

Broker Bahana (DX), Citigroup (CG) dan Kim Eng (ZP) tercatat menjadi pembeli bersih (net buy) paling banyak masing-masing 83.998 lot, 31.315 lot dan 30.096 lot.

Analis kian khawatir IHSG terpapar kisruh Timteng - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Pergolakan politik yang mulai merambat ke Kuwait sebagai negara eksportir minyak dunia terbesar kelima di dunia diprediksikan akan membuat harga minyak dunia semakin sulit untuk turun sehingga menahan pergerakan indeks bursa saham Indonesia yang saat ini mulai menguat.

Kepala Riset PT BNI Securities Norico Gaman menyatakan kondisi politik Kuwait menyusul kerusuhan di Libya akan mengganggu pasokan minyak dari Timur Tengah ke negara-negara di dunia. Harga minyak diprediksikan bisa mencapai US$120 per barel hingga pertengahan 2011.

“Kenaikan harga minyak dalam jangka panjang ini akan memicu inflasi dunia sehingga pertumbuhan perekonomian melambat. Pada periode harga minyak dunia di atas US$100 per barel, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak fluktuatif pada rentang 3.450-3.650,” ujarnya hari ini.

Dia menambahkan kenaikan harga minyak dunia akan ikut menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan Asia, sehingga akan berpengaruh negatif terhadap indeks. Investor biasanya merespon negatif terhadap inflasi karena berpotensi menaikkan suku bunga.

Sementara itu rupiah terus menguat sejak awal Januari 2011 juga akan memicu laju inflasi. Sampai dengan hari ini penguatannya sebesar 2,25% dari kurs jual Rp8.818 per US dolar pada hari ini dibandingkan dengan Rp9.021 per US dolar pada 3 Januari 2011.

“Penguatan rupiah ini masih belum rawan, investor asing baru akan menarik dananya dari bursa ketika pemulihan ekonomi di Eropa dan Amerika Serikat mampu menaikkan suku bunga kedua wilayah tersebut,” tambahnya.

Kepala Riset PT Universal Broker Indonesia Satrio Utomo menjelaskan penguatan rupiah ini mencerminkan aliran dana yang masuk ke pasar modal.

“Dampak negatifnya terdapat sekitar 25% dari emiten bursa yang merupakan eksportir komoditas, dengan menguatnya rupiah ini akan menurunkan pendapatan mereka karena pembiayaan yang diperlukan untuk produksi semakin tinggi,” ujarnya hari ini.

Menurut Satrio Utomo sentimen negatif indeks lebih pada melebarnya krisis politik di Kawasan Timur Tengah ke Kuwait ini sehingga akan membuat Arab Saudi terkepung dan menimbulkan kecemasan dalam waktu dekat Arab Saudi akan ikut bergejolak.

“Dampak kondisi politik Timur Tengah yang berkepanjangan ini adalah harga minyak merk brent akan mendekati level berbahaya,” ujarnya hari ini.

Arab Saudi merupakan negara pengekspor minyak terbesar kedua setelah Rusia dengan cadangan minyak sebesar 19,2% dari total persediaan minyak mentah dunia.

Analis politik Timur Tengah yang juga dosen Fakultas Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik UIN Jakarta Ali Munhanif menyatakan Arab Saudi sebagai rentier state yang perekonomiannya sudah maju memiliki kemungkinan yang sangat kecil untuk terkena efek domino dari pergolakan politik di Mesir dan Kuwait.

“Ketika terjadi krisis sekecil apapun, negara dan ulama akan menyatu untuk menyelesaikan masalah yang terjadi sehingga akan sulit bagi oposisi untuk meruntuhkan rezim yang sedang berkuasa,”ujarnya.

Kecuali sambungnya, ada campur tangan dari kekuatan besar seperti Amerika Serikat. Namun, Amerika Serikat juga akan sangat berhati-hati dalam bersikap sehubungan dengan ketergantungannya terhadap minyak dari Arab Saudi.

PTBA: Capex Rp1,8 T Juga untuk Akusisi Tambang Batubara - TopSaham

Dirut PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) Sukrisno mengungkapkan pihaknya menganggarkan belanja modal (capital expenditure/capex) sebesar Rp1,8 triliun pada tahun 2011 ini. Selain untuk pendanaan proyek, dana itu juga untuk akusisi tambang batu bara.

Capex ini akan dipergunakan untuk melaksanakan proyeknya di tahun 2011 diantaranya proyek jalur kereta api baru yang sedang dikembangkan oleh PTBA yaitu jalur Tanjung Enim ke Propinsi Lampung sepanjang 307 Km dengan kapasitas angkut sebesar 25 juta ton per tahun. Proyek ini dilaksanakan bersama-sama dengan mitra usaha melalui perusahaan patungan PT Bukit Asam Transpacific Railway (PT BATR).

"Kedua proyek ini akan disertai dengan pembangunan pelabuhan baru di Lampung dan fasilitas pendukung lainnya yang ditargetkan rampung pada tahun 2014," ujar Sukrisno dalam jumpa pers di Jakarta (10/3).

Untuk pengembangan kereta api lainnya dilakukan oleh pihak investor (PT Adani bekerja sama dengan Pemprov Sumsel) dengan jalur Tanjung Enim ke Tanjung Api Api di Sumatera Selatan sejauh kurang lebih 270 Km dengan kapasitas 35 juta ton per tahun. Proyek ini diharapkan dapat beroperasi di tahun 2014.

Disampaikan, pembebasan lahan untuk proyek kereta api baru (Tanjung Enim-Lampung) akan dilakukan mulai semester pertama tahun ini yang aka diikuti dengan proses pembangunan infrastruktur perkereta apian beserta pelabuhannya.

Untuk menjamin kehandalan operasional penambangan di (Tanjung Enim dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan listrik sebagai Alat Tambang Utamanya,PTBA pada saat ini sudah menyelesaikan 85persen dari pembangunan PLTU 3x10 MW di W -Tanjung Enim dan diharapkan pada TW III 2011 sudah dapat beroperasi.

Harga pangan global catat rekor tertinggi - Bisnis Indonesia

JAKARTA: Harga pangan global yang dicatat dalam indeks harga pangan organisasi pangan dunia (FAO) naik hingga mencapai rekor tertinggi pada periode Februari 2011. Bahkan diprediksi melanjutkan kenaikannya hingga 2012.

Indeks harga pangan (Food Price Index) organisasi pangan dunia, atau Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), menanjak 2,2% menjadi 236 poin pada Februari 2011 dari posisi Januari 2011. Ini merupakan rekor tertinggi sejak lembaga PBB ini memantau harga sejak 1990.

Dalam situs resmi FAO, disebutkan pada periode delapan bulan hingga Februari 2011, mayoritas harga pangan yang dipantau dalam indeks harga pangan mencatat kenaikan, kecuali harga gula.

FAO menyatakan kenaikan harga ini seiring semakin ketatnya pasokan di tengah tingginya permintaan khususnya untuk produk sereal yang terdiri dari gandum, beras dan jagung.

Produksi sereal global pada tahun ini diperkirakan turun karena berkurangnya persediaan gandum dan biji-bijian kasar. Harga sereal di pasar internasional langsung menanjak dengan harga ekspor sejumlah biji-bijian lainnya juga naik 70% dari Februari tahun lalu.

“Secara tidak terduga kenaikan harga minyak mentah lebih lanjut dapat memperburuk situasi yang sudah genting di pasar bahan pangan, ” kata David Hallam, direktur divisi perdagangan dan pasar FAO.

Hiroyuki Konuma, perwakilan regional FAO di Asia mengatakan harga pangan dunia cenderung melanjutkan kenaikannya pada tahun ini karena harga minyak yang tinggi dan hasil panen yang lebih rendah.

“Korea Utara dan Afghanistan menghadapi risiko kekurangan pangan dan kenaikan harga,” kata Konuma di Bangkok, Kamis, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.

Biaya pangan global naik hingga rekor tertinggi pada Februari. Peningkatan ini telah memberikan kontribusi untuk kerusuhan di Afrika Utara dan Timur Tengah yang menggulingkan pemimpin di Mesir dan Tunisia.

Harga melonjak karena cuaca buruk merusak tanaman dari Kanada ke Australia, dan Rusia melarang ekspor biji-bijian setelah kekeringan terburuk dalam setengah abad. “Pasar akan mendapatkan peningkatan produksi tetapi tidak cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan global,” kata Abdolreza Abbassian, seorang ekonom senior FAO.

Dia menambahnya level harga tinggi akan terus terjadi pada tahun ini, bahkan berlanjut pada tahun depan.

Dalam Food Price Index FAO yang mencatat harga 55 komoditas ini, indeks harga sereal (gandum, jagung dan beras) naik 3,7% menjadi 254 poin pada Februari 2011. Ini merupakan level tertinggi sejak Juli 2008.

Harga gandum sudah menanjak 60% di Chicago Board of Trade dalam 12 bulan terakhir, jagung menanjak 92% dan beras bertambah 5%.

Untuk kontrak pengiriman Mei, harga gandum naik 0,9% menjadi US$7,86 per bushel di Chicago Board of Trade. Harga kontrak jagung pengiriman Mei juga menanjak 0,6% menjadi US$7,10 per bushel.

Results Snapshot BBNI & PTBA - DBS Vickers

Bank Negara Indonesia: Buy; Rp3,800; TP Rp4,300; BBNI IJ

FY10 net profit could exceed Rp4tr
BBNI’s CEO signaled that the bank’s FY10 net profit could exceed Rp4tr or grew 69.35% y-o-y. Growth in earnings was mostly contributed by loan expansion. BBNI allocated Rp10tr for infrastructure loan with main focuses in toll road and power plant construction this year. However, BBNI cut corporate loan target from Rp70tr in FY10 to be Rp15tr in FY11F.

Bukit Asam: Buy; Rp20,300; TP Rp26,650; PTBA IJ

Rainbow after the rain
• Weak FY10 earnings inline with industry
• Strong contract price to PLN to drive earnings momentum this year.
• Attractively priced at 11x FY11 PE. Maintain Buy, TP Rp26,650/share for 31% upside potential.

Indo Tambangraya: Buy; Rp43,850; TP Rp59,000 prev Rp62,350; ITMG IJ Buying opportunity - DBS Vickers

• Banpu is unlikely to sell down ITM stake for now
• Accumulate for upside to earnings on higher ASP resulting from rising coal prices
• Maintain Buy for strong growth and attractive valuation; TP cut by 5% to reflect lower earnings forecast

Attractive entry point. ITM’s share price fell 6% over the last two weeks despite rising coal price. We understand this was mainly due to rumours that Banpu planned to sell more ITM shares at a discount. Our channel checks indicate Banpu has no such plans since it has managed to refinance the debt taken to fund the CEY acquisition. The price weakness presents an attractive entry point to increase exposure to ITMG in anticipation of strong earnings growth this year underpinned by higher volumes and contract prices.

Potential upside from higher coal prices. We estimate FY11F volume at 26m tons and ASP at US$85/ton, against 23m tons and US$73 in FY10. ITM has contracted 89% of FY11F volume with 40% priced at above US$82. We expect more upside to earnings, the catalyst being higher-than-expected contract prices with the prevailing high oil prices. ITM may also declare higher dividends if the acquisition is delayed.

Attractive valuation. We cut FY11-12F earnings by 2% after imputing higher fuel costs and lower volume from Jorong. Our target price is also cut to Rp59,000 (from Rp62,500) based on blended valuation of 17x FY11F PE and 6x PBV to reflect lower earnings forecast. The stock is attractive at 10x FY11F PE versus 12-13x for Indonesian peers

Regional Plantation Biofuels are back! - DBS Vickers

• Speakers at 2011 Palm Oil Conference were bearish for 2H11, but expect FY11 prices to average higher than our forecast
• Factors to watch: US RFS2, acreage battle, weather, funds participation, and macros
• We continue to expect near term CPO price strength, followed by weaker 2H11 – reviewing FY11-13F numbers with upside bias
• No change to top picks: Sampoerna Agro, Genting Plantations, Sime Darby, IndoAgri and Wilmar

CY11 prices may average RM3,350. Most of the speakers at the 2011 Palm Oil Conference indicated that near term palm oil prices will be strong, followed by softening in 2H11. The exception was Mr. Dorab Mistry, who expects prices to strengthen in 2HCY11 and retest RM3,600 – RM4,000 levels, led by strong soybean oil prices. In a hard landing scenario, Dr. James Fry of LMC International also expects prices to strengthen to RM4,300 by Sep11, followed by a steep drop to RM2,250 by Dec11.

Increased biofuel mandate at the centre of attention. Reasons for the expectation of strong prices ranged from late-stage El-Nino impact on palm oil supply, Indonesian export tax, extension of US biodiesel tax credit, RFS2, acreage shift away from oilseeds, global demand shifts and strong crude oil prices. Arguments for lower prices in 2H11 ranged from lower demand from China to lack of political will to increase RFS requirement after 2012 given the large US budget deficit. Mr. Thomas Mielke of Oil World believes current biofuel mandates are too high, and that they key issue going forward will be meeting food demand, given recent consumer protests.

CPO price assumptions under review. Taking into account a lagged effect of 2009 El Nino and continued shortage of labour in Malaysia , our 2011 Malaysian CPO volume projection of 18.2m MT now looks optimistic. On the other hand, our soybean production forecast of 70.4m MT is now considered too low, and that of Argentina (50m MT) is probably on the high side. We are reviewing these assumptions and look to revise our FY11-12F CPO price assumptions with a slight upside bias.

No change to our recommendations, as we believe that at current prices some planters have been significantly oversold given the tightness in soybean oil supplies. Our top picks are Sampoerna Agro, Genting Plantations, Sime Darby, IndoAgri and Wilmar.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk | Converts MCN's into PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk. ("BRMS") Equity : Increases


PT Bumi Resources Tbk is pleased to confirm that its $546 million worth of Mandatory Convertible Notes (MCN's) have been converted into BRMS equity today - in line with its Conditional SPA dated 23 Jun 2010.

Bumi's share holding in BRMS increases to 22,27 billion shares (from earlier 14.87 billion shares) raising its stake in BRMS to 87.0943% (from earlier 81.8367%).

The MCN conversion price per BRMS share is Rp 670.

This would enable BRMS to strengthen its balance sheet, reduce its debt:equity ratio to a very healthy 0.1x and self reliant for its future funding needs .

The BRMS announcement is attached for information.


Dileep Srivastava
Director & Corporate Secretary

PT Bumi Resources Tbk.
Bakrie Tower, 11th Floor
Kompleks Rasuna Epicentrum
Jl. H.R. Rasuna Said
Jakarta 12960

Tel : +62 21 57942080
Fx : +62 21 57942070

Vallar : BUMI’s panacea? - Mandiri Sekuritas

The completion of the transfer of a 25% ownership of BUMI from the Bakrie Group to Vallar in return of ownership in Vallar, we believe, is a game changer. However to be positively convinced we need one more action : change BUMI’s auditor. As Vallar promised an accountable board of directors free of interference from the Bakrie Group (it is sealed in ‘Bakrie Relationship Agreement’), BUMI’s discount to peers is expected to narrow. However we also caution investors of BUMI’s FY11 net income. Should the new auditor apply stricter accounting rules we might see charge-offs applied. Our NAV calculation brings a valuation of Rp4,714/share. We will maintain our target price, and look for upgrade after announcement of a change in the auditor.

What’s in the UK Governance Code? Excerpts from the Code: Every company should be headed by an effective board which is collectively responsible for the long-term success of the company. There should be a dialogue with shareholders based on the mutual understanding of objectives. The board as a whole has responsibility for ensuring that a satisfactory dialogue with shareholders takes place.

What’s in Bakrie Relationship Agreement? The agreement is made between Vallar and members of the Bakrie Group (Bakrie Brothers and Long Haul). The principal purpose is to ensure that Vallar is capable of carrying on its business independently of the Bakrie Group and its associates and that all transactions and relationships between the Company and the Bakrie Group are at arm’s length and on a normal commercial basis.

What are signals of improved governance? One signal of change should be a new appointment of BUMI’s auditor. Should BUMI divest Bumi Mineral Resources, we also expect it will be made using credible appraisals.

Expect charge-offs. If BUMI decides to change auditor, we should caution of potential charge-offs if the new auditor applies stricter accounting rules. Although comparison might not be applicable, deferred mining expenses/total asset excl Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), Dairi in BUMI reached 22.0% (9M10), while ITMG’s was 8.5% (12M10). However we view it positively. Using reserves reported in the prospectus, added with NNT and Dairi Prima acquisition prices, and deducted with debt (including unamortized cost and discount), deferred assets, other assets, and several non-debt liabilities (Exhibit 4) result in NAV/share of Rp4,714. At thi s point, we are maintaining our target price of Rp3,665/share and wait for change of auditor to take place.

Alam Sutera Realty – Indonesia 2010 results preview: Earnings in line - UOB KayHian

What’s New
• Robust 2010 bottom line performance. Management indicated that 2010 net profit may reach Rp300b or more than tripled 2009’s net profit of Rp94b. Stellar bottom line performance was mainly driven by: a) robust revenue growth of 88% yoy to about Rp750b, b) improving profit
margins on the back of higher ASP of land sales.
• Business expansion mode is on. The company plans to acquire a 6-7ha land bank in Sanur-Bali worth about Rp200b (to develop a hotel & resort property). Although this acquisition has not been finalised yet, it shows that ASRI is seriously aiming to strengthen its property investment divisions (targeting recurring incomes accounted for about 20% of total revenues in the next five years).

Stock Impact
• No surprise on the results. The indicated 2010 net profit of Rp300b is in line with our FY10 forecast of Rp296b. Meanwhile, the company expects to book 2010 revenues of Rp750b, which is basically lower than our FY10 revenue estimation of Rp837b. This means that profit margins would be much better than our expectations.
• Proposed 2010 DPS is likely at Rp4. Following these stellar 2010 results, ASRI plans to distribute total dividend of Rp70b (DPS of Rp4) with payout of 23%. The management would propose this dividend distribution during EGM, which will be held in May.
• Expects 2011 earnings to grow by 65% yoy. We expect 2011 earnings to improve further by 65% yoy to Rp700b, backed by greater portion of strong marketing sales in 2010 (+52% yoy to Rp1.6t) to be booked this year. We also envisaged 2011 marketing sales to grow further by 15%
yoy to Rp1.8t, which is driven by additional sales from new residential developments in Pasar Kemis (to be launched in 2H11).

Earnings Revision/Risk
• None.

• Still a BUY with target price of Rp400. While current FY11F P/B is trading on a par with peers’ average of 2.0x, the stock is compelling based on: a) low FY11F PE at 9.7x or lower than sector’s 14.1x, and b) share price is also at a steep 54% discount to our RNAV estimate of Rp571/share.

United Tractors (UNTR IJ, Rp24,350 BUY) United we stand - Danareksa Sekuritas

Maintain BUY despite slightly lower TP
We remain upbeat on UNTR despite the stronger expected IDR and believe that the company is in a great position to capture growth in the resurging coal mining industry. To reflect the recently released FY10 results, we incorporate our latest USD/IDR exchange rate and oil price assumptions, and also adjust our heavy equipment sales and coal mining contracting targets, as well as our coal mining operations sales target. Consequently, our FY11-12F EPS estimates are adjusted down by 3.8-1.9% - only a slight reduction. Our slightly lower TP of Rp27,000 implies P/E 11-12F of 17.6-14.7x, admittedly at the high end of the historical P/E, yet justified thanks to higher coal prices and the ongoing recovery taking place in the coal mining industry.

FY10 results in line
UNTR’s 12M10 operational and financial performance is broadly in line with our forecast. Compared to 3Q10, the 4Q10 gross margins showed an improvement in all business segments. This was thanks to less one-off charges for extra maintenance arising from the heavy rains in the mining contracting and coal mining business. It indicates that the operating environment for mining contracting and coal mining was much better in 4Q10 than in previous quarters. Net profits declined, however, in 4Q10. They dropped 17.9% qoq due to higher employee costs and strengthening of the rupiah.

Set for operational improvement this year
We raise our Komatsu heavy equipment sales assumption to 6,000 units this year, or in line with UNTR’s guidance. Pama’s coal production and overburden removal, meanwhile, is expected to grow 15%, while DEJ and TTA are expected to sell 2.5Mt and 1.5Mt of coal, respectively, this year. All in all, the outlook for the mining industry is rosy and the ongoing recovery should continue as the weather returns to normal by the winter of 2011 (or June 2011 in Australia). This will translate into better profitability in all business segments, we believe. Further underpinning our confidence are UNTR’s excellent 1M11 operational results, with yoy growth in all segments. In this period, Komatsu heavy equipment sales recorded breakneck 116% yoy growth; Pama’s coal production and overburden removal was up by 5.0% and 19.7% yoy, respectively; and DEJ’s sales increased by 2.6% yoy.

The main risks are IDR strengthening and higher oil prices
The main risks to earnings that the company faces are IDR strengthening and surging crude oil prices. This is because: 1) UNTR gains most of its revenues in USD, while around 20% of its costs are denominated in IDR and 2) higher oil prices would mean additional costs in its mining contracting and coal mining operations, although Pama would, for the most part, be able to pass its higher fuel costs on to coal companies. We assume an average FY11F IDR/USD exchange rate of Rp9,117/USD and oil price of US$90/barrel. Our sensitivity analysis shows that for every 2.5% fluctuation in the IDR/USD exchange rate, the FY11F core profit will change 3.4%, while for every 5% fluctuation in the oil price there will be a 2.1% change in the FY11F core profit.

Perusahaan Gas Ex growth - Downgrade UNDERPERFORM - CLSA

We downgrade PGas to underperform as the stock goes ex-growth for next two years. There is no material new gas supply and we do not expect price increases. We cut earnings by 6-12% as we cut volumes. The days of super margins are also over and PGas margins on LNG will be much lower than current distribution margins as it will be a cost plus business model. Potential delays on LNG are also possible. Underperform

Pgas losses volumes again
The current weakness in the stock price is because of the partial diversion of Conoco Phillips volumes from PGas to Chevron. PGas’s current contracted amount from Conoco Phillips is 375mmscfd, but Conoco Phillips is delivering only 300mmscfd currently to PGas. BP Migas confirmed that PGAS is unlikely to get the gas from Conoco Phillips back anytime soon. We cut volumes earnings by 6-12% for 2011CL. PGas expects to recover these volumes in 2H11 when Chevron can get gas from Jambi Marang.

West Java LNG receiving terminal construction has started
PGas has started construction of West Java LNG receiving terminal and this should complete in 2H12. The current gas supply agreement (HOA only) is of 130mmscfd, (1/3 of the capacity) with Bontang. The GSA should be signed soon. The pricing structure will be cost plus. The pricing to the customers will be determined by cost of gas (floating) + operating expense + part of the
investment cost + PGas’s distribution margin.

New supply?
Press report states that Indonesia will start importing 4.5mn tonnes of LNG starting in 2013. This is positive as the government is giving indication that importing gas is an option to meet domestic gas shortage. In the past, importing gas has been political as Indonesia being a large producer/exporter of gas has to import for domestic needs. This opens up potential for Pgas to
import gas. While growth will be slow next two years, growth profile longer term is intact as LNG construction has started and will complete end 2012.

We downgrade PGas to underperform as the stock goes there is little growth for next two years. We cut earnings by 6-12% as we cut volumes. Our price target is DCF derived. The days of super margins are also over and PGas margins on LNG will be much lower than current distribution margins as it will be a cost plus business model. Our price target is 20% discount to DCF.

United Tractors - Strong Komatsu sales continue in February - Deutsche Bank

Strong February heavy equipment sales
Komatsu sales in February remained stellar reaching c. 690 units (tentative), +74% YoY, which showed that the record high monthly sales in January totaling 731 units was not just simply due to carry-over sales from last year. We attributed this condition to strong heavy equipment demand following buoyant coal and palm oil prices. United Tractors (UNTR) heavy equipment sales in 2M11 has exceeded our monthly sales forecast of 565 units translating to 6,500 units (UNTR: 6,000 units; +11% YoY), +20% YoY, in 2011F.

Supply availability would be limiting sales factor
We believe the challenge for delivering higher sales would come from the supply availability as we have heard about supply difficulty that hit Hitachi and Kobelco. Meanwhile, UNTR confirms that the supply availability from its principal is tighter than last year given the demand from other market outside Indonesia is recovering going into 2011. In this year, UNTR has received a confirmed heavy equipment supply from Komatsu totaling 6,500 units. UNTR needs to negotiate with Komatsu for additional supplies - once its sales hit above 7,000 units, the principal must sacrifice its supply to other markets for Indonesia (happened in 2010 as UNTR's sales exceeded 5,000 units).

Maintain Buy rating with TP of Rp30,000
This Buy rating is predicated upon its strong earnings prospects following (1) buoyant commodity prices, particularly coal, which accounts for 90% of its consolidated earnings; and (2) the expected weather normalization that should lead to sharp earnings and margin improvement at Pama. The stock's share price has been relatively unchanged and performing inline with the market in the past 3 months trading at 14.9x, at par to the market.

IDX Composite Ends Higher on Foreign Buying - The Indonesia Today

Composite index of IDX ended higher by 0.51% at 3,598.68 on the back of foreign buying. Regional markets sentiment also supported. Foreign investors booked net buying of Rp346.88 billion.
Crown holder Astra International jumped 2.26% and PT Telkom inched up 0.11%, while Bank Mandiri and Bank BCA stood flat.

Mining stocks are mainly in red zone. BNBR lost 2.94%, followed by ADRO (2.08%), PTBA (1.22%), TINS (0.92%), and INCO (0.50%). ANTM and Bumi closed unchanged.

Gainers of the day were GJTL (6.17%), CPIN (5.13%), ISAT (5.00%), LPKR (3.51%), KLBF (2.56%), and BORN (2.55%).

Nikkei led the regional market by 0.61% jump. Others follow were Hang Seng (0.42%), KLSE (0.40%), Kospi (0.26%), and SSE (0.11%). Meanwhile, All Ordinaries and Straits Times lost 0.80% and 0.29% respectively, while BSE Sensex inched up 0.05% an hour before closing.

At 04.00 PM, light sweet crude oil stood at US$104.65 per barrel in New York. Rupiah gained 5 points to Rp8,784 per US dollar according to Bank Indonesia.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 10 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Kamis, 10 Maret 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG ditutup naik 18 poin (0,51%) ke level 3.598,67. Kenaikan terjadi di hampir semua sektor, kecuali mining dan basic industri. Asing kemarin membukukan net buying Rp 342 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah mining dan banking. Secara teknikal, indeks dalam tiga hari terakhir bergerak menguat dengan volume yang meningkat. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.548–3.635. Cermati TLKM, MYOR, dan ISAT.

2. Kresna Sekurindo
IHSG masih melanjutkan penguatan meskipun tekanan jual mulai terlihat kemarin. Tekanan jual diperkirakan akan terus meningkat mengingat stochastic telah berada di area overbought. Seiring dengan itu, hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak di 3.570-3.630 dengan TLKM dan MEDC sebagai saham pilihan.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada perdagangan Kamis (10/3), indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed pada kisaran 3.580-3.617. Ini menyusul turunnya harga minyak akibat rencana OPEC menambah produksi. Namun, investor perlu mewaspadai kemungkinan adanya profit taking. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain TLKM, KLBF, ASRI, dan PGAS

Bukit Asam Net Profit Drops 26% - The Indonesia Today

Coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) Tbk booked net profit of Rp2 trillion last year, dropped 26% from 2009 on lower sales revenue.

Bukit Asam reported sales revenue of Rp7.9 trillion last year, declined 11.6% from 2009, while its operating profit slashed 35% to Rp2.3 trillion.

Asam's cost of goods sold increased slightly by 3.75% to Rp4.26 trillion, resulting in 24% drop of gross profit to Rp3.65 trillion. Bukit Asam produced about 14 million tons of coal last year.

As at December 31, 2010, Bukit Asam had total assets of Rp8.72 trillion and total equity of Rp6.36 trillion. The stock closed at Rp20,300 Wednesday (March 9). At that price, Bukit Asam currently has market capitalization of Rp46.77 trillion.

PTBA results - JP Morgan

* Research call – buy PTBA. FY10 results in-line with Steve’s estimate. Most important development is that PTBA has fleshed-out its FY11 sales contract in details, suggesting that the company has locked-in a 27% yoy rise in ASP for about 10mn tons of its coal, out of 15mn sales forecast for the year. This is despite the controversy surrounding PLN (as main buyer of PTBA coal) wanting to negotiate lower the coal price purchase for FY11. My take – In my own opinion, I would remain cautious on PTBA’s ASP outlook for FY11, until somebody can confidently reconcile the two (potentially conflicting) statements from PTBA as the seller and PLN as the buyer, with regards to FY11 ASP. Before that can happen, the statement from PTBA is just a one-sided statement from the seller. Prefer the thermal coal exporters who are better leveraged to upside surprises in international coal price settlement.

Tambang batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) (Stevanus Juanda)
US$92/ton domestic coal ASP – up 27.4% Y/Y: PTBA also released information that the FY11 average blended domestic coal ASP signing with PLN is likely to be up 27.4% Y/Y: (a) 6.1MM tons to PLTU Suralaya at Rp815,000/ton, up 19%Y/Y; (b) 1.0MM tons to PLTU Bukit Asam at Rp575,000/ton, up 34% Y/Y; (c) 0.7MM tons to PLTU Tarahan at Rp729,325/ton, up 28% Y/Y; and (d) 1.0MM ton additional volime for Rp740,211/ton, up 29% Y/Y. The Rp805,000/ton average blended price is above our estimate of Rp784,000/ton. With domestic accounting for roughly 60-65% of the yearly volume, we believe the signings bode well for strong profit growth in FY11.

Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS): clear catalysts ahead - JP Morgan

Investment thesis
Other than being the only gold and copper play in Indonesia, investment in BRMS presents a mixture of (1) arbitrage value opportunity for NNT, operator of Asia's third largest copper and gold mine, significant value and earnings contributor to the US$26bn NYSE-listed Newmont Mining Corporation, world largest gold company, (2) metal and diamond exploration upside with the Bakries, a politically connected business group with strong track record in Indonesia's mining sector, and (3) execution upside on Dairi, one of the best zinc and lead deposit in the world with above average metal content of 22%. It could also be seen as trading play on the plan by its parent company to de-leverage balance sheet, qualifying BRMS as potential take-over target.

Recent Positives
* Debt default risk goes to near zero. Yesterday, BRMS parent company converted US$546mn worth of parent company loan into shares, at a price of Rp670/share (vs last close of Rp660). What’s left on BRMS balance sheet is the US$271mn CS loan facility, with interest and principal repayment tied to dividend income from NNT (the facility is ring-fenced around NNT stake only). So even if NNT stops paying dividend for the next 8 quarters, debt servicing for this particular debt will not be a problem.

* One step closer to start of Dairi project. According to BRMS management, president SBY has signed the decree confirming that miners are allowed to mine undergound within the protected forest area. Next, the forestry minister will need to issue the Pinjam pakai (borrow-to-use) permit authorizing the exploitation activities. Once obtained, BRMS may spend US$10mn per month for the next 20 months on capex on Dairi, to generate US$200mn EBITDA (1mn tons of feed per year, with Zinc and Lead price between US$1.10-1.20/lb). Dairi project offers impressive zinc grade (13.7% Zn and 8.2% Pb), four times higher grade than the average zinc mines in China.

* Strong gold price and normal NNT output in 1Q11. Heavy rain has delayed NNT’s phase VI expansion, and as a result NNT produced normal output in 1Q11. Average gold price was 24% higher yoy in 1Q11, while for copper it was 33% higher yoy. Average gold price for 1Q11 was 12% higher compared to full year 2010 average, while for copper it was 28% higher. At the time of IPO for BRMS, JPMorgan analyst had expected year 2011 net profit to collapse by 64% yoy. The reality may not look as bleak, and the yoy comparison for 1Q11 may even look healthy.

Potential Catalysts
* Warrants exercise period nearing. It is quite crucial for BRMS to obtain fresh US$170mn capital from the conversion of its outstanding warrants, despite the US$170mn cash balance now. The management had hoped that proceeds from IPO and warrants can cover the two year exploration plans for Gorontalo copper & gold, Liberia diamond, and Citra Palu copper & gold, and the exploitation plan for Dairi zinc & lead and Mauritania iron ore. The warrants have a conversion price of Rp700/share, valid from 9-Jun-2011 until 12-Oct-2012.

* Parent company deleveraging process nearing. BRMS parent company plans to de-leverage its balance sheet. One of the possible ways to achieve such objective is to spin-off its stake in BRMS. Tender offer for BRMS shares is a debatable possibility.

* NNT stake sale decision in March-April 2011. The central government is due to decide and act on its first right of refusal to buy the last 7% stake in NNT, over the next few weeks. Lack of action by the central government may lapse the offer, and the right to purchase will be passed on to the regional governments of Nusa Tenggara (who partners with BRMS in their bid to purchase the stake). The offer price of US$270mn for the 7% stake is perceived to be an attractive price by the market.

* IPO of NNT in June 2011. The Newmont consortium (56% stakeholder) plans to offer 10% new shares in NNT to the Indonesian public in June 2011, a plan that is supported by BRMS consortium (24% stakeholder). Before the IPO can go ahead, there are two prerequisites: (1) finalization of the 7% selldown, and (2) all parties (Newmont, BRMS, and Merukh consortiums) must agree to waive non pre-emptive rights to buy the new shares. The IPO can potentially set the real valuation benchmark for NNT, that I believe can be at big premium to the purchase price by BRMS.

* Exploration results. BRMS management appears confident on Gorontalo proofing itself as a world class copper and gold mine, comparable to that of NNT Batu Hijau mine. The confidence came from the old drilling results by previous owner BHP, before ex-president Soeharto put a national park boundary right on top of the concession. On NNT, the Indonesian spokesman told the press recently that the copper-gold reserves at Elang is estimated to be 1.5x bigger than that of Batu Hijau. At the time of IPO, they were at advanced exploration stages only for Elang, 60km away from Batu Hijau.

* Stock liquidity risk with average daily turnover of US$2mn.
* Famine period for NNT dividends, eight consecutive quarters starting from 2Q11.
* Skyrocketing costs of exploration. BRMS executing exploration and exploitation plans without third party contractors.
* Geopolitical risks in African countries.

Rabu, 09 Maret 2011

Base metals hit by weak physical demand - Commodity Online

Base metals traded lower across the board in Asian session on the London Metal Exchange, the benchmark metal exahnge on Tuesday.Physical market for base metals is also weak that adds to the pressure on metal prices to go downward. A weak global equity market is also a bearish factor for base metal complex.

However, bulls are waiting for the lower levels in base metals to buy. Crude prices are trading weak at present. Crude prices are present trading near 104.25 USD per barrel. Higher crude prices may lead to higher inflationary situation in the world and may dampen global economic recovery. If Crude prices remain weak or fall further, selloff in the metals may stop and base metals may stabilise at present levels.

LME 3 Month Copper last traded at USD 9425 a tonne. While 3 Months Lead and Nickel on LME last traded at USD 2535 per tonne and USD 26772 per tonne respectively. At LME, 3 Month Aluminium last traded at 2562 a tonne. Zinc 3 Month LME contract was trading at 2441 per tonne.

LME 3M Copper prices are likely to rise from the present levels and may test 9600-9700 levels in the next few trading sessions. While 3M Lead and Nickel could touch 2625-2650 and 27250-27750 levels in the next few trading days.

Metals may find its direction from global equity markets and currency movements in the next couple of weeks.

Palm futures end mixed on lack of interest - Business Times


CRUDE palm oil futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives closed mixed yesterday on lack of strong buying interest, dealers said.

Most players remained sidelined ahead of slew industry data expected to be released today by two cargo surveyors and the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).

At the close, March and April fell RM5 each to RM3,638 per tonne and RM3,618 per tonne, respectively. May gained RM1 to RM3,585 per tonne and June increased RM4 to RM3,558 per tonne.

Turnover declined to 13,566 lots, from 17,621 lots registered yesterday, while open interest increased to 95,878 contracts, from 95,048 contracts, recorded previously.


LONDON: Oil rose over US$1 (US$1.00 = RM3.03) yesterday as fighting intensified in Libya, and an Opec delegate said it saw no need to hold an emergency meeting to ease supply fears.

Brent crude oil futures for April were up 94 cents to US$114 a barrel at 1320 GMT as Libyan forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi closed in on rebels in the western city of Zawiyah and an area around Es Sider oil terminal was hit by an air strike.

Brent had earlier pushed to an intraday high of US$114.39 following news that the heavy fighting had forced the shutdown of the Zawiyah refinery.

US crude was up 18 cents at US$105.20 after earlier reaching an intraday high of US$105.38.

Christopher Bellew, an oil trader at Bache Commodities in London, said the perception of prolonged trouble in Libya was driving the rally in oil prices.


THE Malaysian rubber market closed lower yesterday in line with the downtrend in the regional markets, dealers said.

The Malaysian Rubber Board’s noon official physical price for tyre-grade SMR 20 declined 83 sen to 1,406 sen per kg, while the latex-in-bulk fell 20 sen to 1,019 sen per kg.

The unofficial sellers’ closing price for tyre-grade SMR 20 decreased 93.5 sen to 1,358.5 sen per kg while latex-in-bulk decreased 20.5 sen to 1,007.5 sen per kg.


TIN price on the Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) closed lower by US$605 to US$30,595 per tonne yesterday on technical correction, dealers said.

They said buyers stayed on the sidelines amid a higher premium between KLTM and the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Tuesday.

The tin price on LME declined US$150 to US$30,600 per
tonne. At the opening level on KLTM, no bids were recorded but sellers offered 99 tonnes.

Turnover at closing increased to 35 tonnes from 28 tonnes on Tuesday with trading dominated by Japanese, European and local players.

The price differential between KLTM and LME narrowed to a premium of US$460 per tonne from US$915 a tonne on Tuesday. — Agencies

Newmont's Indonesia unit to seek $500 mln via IPO - Reuters

* Listing to value Indonesia unit at about $5 bln - sources
* Newmont to sell 1.128 bln new shares, option for existing shares
* Legal issue regarding share ownership could be an obstacle

PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara (NNT), the Indonesian unit of U.S. miner Newmont Mining Corp , is seeking to raise about $500 million in an initial public offering in Jakarta by selling a 10 percent stake within the next twelve months, sources said on Wednesday.

The IPO would mark the first listing by a gold and copper miner on Indonesia's stock exchange, though it could be delayed by legal issues surrounding the planned divestment of another stake to local partners.

"We're looking at a $5 billion valuation for the whole firm," said one of the four sources with knowledge of the deal, who declined to be identified because the details were not public.
Newmont is expected to sell up to 1.128 billion of new shares and may also sell an option of an additional 880 million existing shares owned by local partner PT Pukuafu Indah, the source added.

The firm could raise more than $500 million if it exercises the option.

Although there is no official mandate for underwriters, sources said UBS has been tapped to be one of the lead underwriters and other banks will be added once the firm completes a deal to divest a 7 percent stake to local partners, two sources said.

UBS is also the advisor for the divestment stake sale, a source said.

"What we can confirm to you now is that NNT's intention to do an IPO has been discussed in its previous shareholders meeting and supported by the majority of shareholders," Rubi Purnomo, Newmont's Indonesia spokesman, told Reuters.

"The IPO plan is one of the financing options for NNT to develop the company's operation," he said. "At the moment, we are focusing on finalizing the divestiture obligation."

Newmont and Japan's Sumitomo Corp , the majority owners in NNT, were ordered by an Indonesian arbitration court in 2009 to reduce their holding in NNT to less than 50 percent by selling to local investors.

Newmont and the government have agreed on $271.6 million as a price for the divestment of a final 7 percent stake, after Newmont sold the rest to PT Multi Daerah Bersaing -- a consortium of the governments of West Nusa Tenggara province, West Sumbawa regency, Sumbawa regency and PT Multicapital, a unit of Bumi Resources Minerals.

However a Jakarta court said in late 2010 that PT Pukuafu Indah was entitled to a 31 percent stake, a ruling Newmont is appealing against.

The Indonesia unit of the world's No.2 gold producer runs the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in West Nusa Tenggara province. Batu Hijau, on eastern Sumbawa island, is the nation's second biggest copper mine.
"It will be one of the biggest IPOs this year and there should be huge demand for it," said Harry Su, head of research at PT Bahana Securities in Jakarta. "It depends on the timing and valuation, but we expect market sentiment to improve in the second half."

Investors have sold Indonesian stocks this year on worries over inflation and to take profits on a 46 percent rally last year. Still, longer-term sentiment on Southeast Asia's largest economy remains positive because of its resources and growing consumer demand.

The IPO would come after a strong rally in commodity prices, with gold hitting a record high this week and copper hitting a record last month.

Bumi Minerals Lunasi Sebagian Besar Utang - VivaNews

Dengan konversi fasilitas MCN, kepemilikan Bumi di Bumi Minerals Resources jadi 87 persen.

Manajemen PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) segera mengkonversikan fasilitas mandatory convertible note (MCN) sebesar Rp4,95 triliun atau sekitar US$546 juta menjadi kepemilikan ekuitas di anak usaha, PT Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS), pada harga Rp670 per saham.

Untuk itu, Bumi Resources Minerals menerbitkan 7,4 miliar saham baru atas nama Bumi Resources guna pelunasan MCN tersebut.

"Pada Desember 2010, kami menggunakan sebagian dana hasil penawaran umum perdana untuk melunasi fasilitas pinjaman sebesar US$148 juta dari Bright Ventures Pte Ltd," kata Direktur Utama Bumi Resources Minerals, Kenneth Farrell, dalam keterangan tertulis yang diterima di Jakarta, Rabu 9 Maret 2011.

Untuk itu, menurut dia, pelunasan fasilitas MCN sebesar US$546 juta tersebut akan dapat memperbaiki rasio utang terhadap modal perusahaan menjadi 0,1 kali. "Saat ini, Bumi Resources Minerals dioperasikan dengan hampir tanpa pinjaman," ujarnya.

Direktur Keuangan Bumi Resources Minerals, Yuanita Rohali, menambahkan, pinjaman perseroan sebagian besar telah dilunasi, sehingga berdampak terhadap berkurangnya beban bunga secara keseluruhan. "Perusahaan kini dapat mengalokasikan tambahan arus kas untuk kegiatan operasional," ujar Yuanita.

Dengan dikonversikannya fasilitas MCN tersebut, kepemilikan Bumi Resources di Bumi Resources Minerals akan bertambah dari sekitar 82 persen menjadi 87 persen. Kepemilikan investor publik di bursa selanjutnya akan terdilusi dari 18 persen menjadi 13 persen.

Namun, apabila seluruh waran yang ada dikonversikan menjadi saham dalam 24 bulan ke depan, kepemilikan investor publik di bursa akan naik menjadi sekitar 20 persen. Sementara itu, kepemilikan Bumi Resources di Bumi Minerals Resources akan terdilusi menjadi sekitar 80 persen.

Bumi Resources Minerals diharapkan akan mendapatkan tambahan dana sebesar US$171 juta apabila keseluruhan waran yang ada dikonversikan menjadi saham di harga Rp700 per saham dari Juni 2011 hingga Desember 2012.

Berau to buyback US$350 mio notes - Insider Stories

Berau Capital Resources, Indonesia's fifth largest coal producer PT Berau Coal Energy Tbk (BRAU), has announced an offer to repurchase of US$350 million guaranteed senior secured notes issued by Berau Capital on July 8 2010.

In an official statement submitted to Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) dated on March 8 2011, John Ramos, BRAU's Director and also Chief Financial Offer, said the notes buyback will be arranged by HSBC. Regarding to the offer, notes holder have 30 days to respond.

Referring to Vallar Plc prospectus, Berau Capital, a wholly owned subsidiary of BRAU, issued US$350 million of 12.5% guaranteed senior secured notes. Berau Capital sold US$100 million of 12.5% guaranteed senior secured notes on July 29 2010.
These notes bear interest from July 8 2010 at the rate of 12.5% per annum, payable semi-annually, commencing on January 8 2011. The maturity date of the notes is July 8 2015.

Within the same month, BRAU also entered into a US$400 million senior secured credit facility and drew down US$400 million available thereunder.
The facility comprises two tranches: tranche A in a principal amount of US$300 million and tranche B in a principal amount of US$100 million. The tranche A has a maturity of 4 years and trance B has a maturity of 57 months. The facility is guaranteed by Berau Coal and other subsidiaries of BRAU.

GPRA Batalkan Rencana Right Issue - TopSaham

PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) batalkan rencana terbitkan saham baru (rights issue). Hal itu terkait juga batalnya rencana akuisisi lima pusat perbelanjaan di kota-kota besar, seperti Jakarta, Bekasi, Solo, dan Bandung.

Direktur PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk, Arief Aryanto di Jakarta, Rabu (9/3) mengatakan semula perseroan merencanakan akan melakukan right issue pada triwulan II tahun ini, namun karena kondisi pasar yang bleum stabil dan batal nya rencana akuisisi, maka rights issue dibatalkan." Belum ditentukan lagi rencana right issue," ujar nya.

Sebelumnya PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) akan menerbitkan saham baru (rights issue) sebesar Rp 700 miliar guna mengakusisi lima pusat perbelanjaan di kota-kota besar, seperti Jakarta, Bekasi, Solo, dan Bandung. Rights issue rencananya akan meluncur di triwulan II-2011.Penerbitan saham baru rencananya sebesar 10-20% dari modal disetor dan ditempatkan.

Berlian Laju Closes Sale & Leaseback Transaction - The Indonesia Today

Shipping company PT Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA) Tbk has has signed an agreement with Standard Chartered Bank on the sale and leaseback of four stainless steel chemical tankers.

The Transaction value of USD93.5 million entails the lease of the four chemical tankers for 7 to 11 year bareboat basis of which three of them are already in service with the remaining one to be delivered within the coming weeks.

Kevin Wong, Finance Director of the Company, said that the Transaction will generate positive cash flows, significantly improves the balance sheet of the Company and solidify the Company’s financial strength as well as cementing the Company’s relationship with Standard Chartered Bank.

“With the completion of this Transaction, we will significantly enhance our liquidity and further improve BLT’s credit profile especially following its recent US$685 million landmark refinancing initiative. This is also reflects BLT’s unremitting commitment to continuously improve its balance sheet.”

BLTA is one of the largest chemical tanker operators in the world, with fleet comprises chemical tankers (65 vessels plus 3 newbuilds), oil tankers (14 vessels), gas tankers (16 vessels and 4 newbuilds), one FSO, and one FPSO.

Indonesia's domestic car sales in Feb up 24.8 pct y/y - Reuters

Indonesia's total domestic car sales, an indicator of consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, were 69,489 units in February, up 24.8 percent from the same month last year, automotive association data showed on Tuesday.

However, domestic car sales in February declined 5.8 percent from January's 73,761 units.

Sales volumes in February were led by Toyota as usual, though Mitsubishi displaced Daihatsu for the second spot, according to the Indonesian Automotive Association (Gaikindo) data.

The country's largest automotive distributor Astra International has said it expects car sales volumes of 800,000 units this year.

BRI FY10 net income reaches Rp9.03 trio - Insider Stories

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BRI) bagged Rp9.03 trillion net income during 2010 while Bank Mandiri packed Rp8.8 trillion net income.

Minister of State-Owned Enterprises, Mustafa Abubakar said that such net income jump was mainly backed by the huge credit disbursement from those two lenders.
“After Bank Mandiri conducted the rights issue then the capital is somehow more intensified merely to disburse more credit. The same case applies to BRI that previously issued bonds for earning capital,” he said today.

With such amount of net income, BRI recorded 23.52% growth compared to the net income in 2009, reaching Rp7.31 trillion. The percentage is relatively higher than the company’s net income target at 15%.
In the meantime, Bank Mandiri booked 22.9% net income growth compared to the year before, Rp7.16 trillion.

Mustafa added that besides those two banks, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk and PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk also booked a significant net income jump.
“However, for BNI and BTN, we have not received the data. We estimate that the jump is somehow significant,” said Mustafa.

In order to boost the growth of credit disbursement, government through the Ministry of State Owned Enterprises chooses to cut the dividend of state lender from the 2010’s year book.

According to Mustafa, such dividend cut will be also imposed to other state owned enterprises that foster the growth of real sector.