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Senin, 07 Maret 2011

Adaro Energy - Revised down earnings in anticipation of results from bad weather and higher fuel price - Credit Suisse

● Revised down earnings by 25% for 2010E and 7.6% for 2011E. We anticipate further impact of bad weather in 2010E and rising fuel prices in 2011E. Our revised 2010E and 2011E EPS is about 22% and 15% below consensus.

● Revised ASP down by 3.4% and costs up by 3%. We expect that bad weather in 2010 will have resulted in higher off-specs coal given less flexibility in choosing mine areas. Bad weather has also pressured costs as ADRO focused on fulfilling its volume contracts to costumers.

● Strong fundamentals, but relatively weak results may put temporary pressure on price. In the medium to longer term, we believe ADRO’s fundamentals are still strong given its growth profile from Wara and coking coal project, as well as its initiatives in reducing costs. However, relatively weak results may put temporary pressure on the stock price.

● We retain NEUTRAL rating and decrease our target price to Rp 2,700 based on 2011E target multiple of 18x (13.0x 2012E).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 21.36

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