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Kamis, 15 September 2011

Aug11 cement sales slipped 0.3% - Mandiri

Domestic cement sales slipped 0.3% yoy and 17.7% qoq in Aug11 due to seasonality factor, confirming our prediction. Continued works on property and infrastructure during the month managed to support growth, shown from the solid bulk cement sales growth (16.3% yoy), despite bag segment fell 3.8% yoy. Hence, cumulative sales growth eased to 13.1% yoy, amounting to total sales of 31.3 mn tons during 8M11. We think sales should rebound in Sept11, as no major impediments yet seen, including the weather. Our favorites are still SMCB and INTP, given consistently strong growth at their home markets, namely Jakarta and West Java, with strong presence in the ready-mix segment. We maintain overweight on the sector.

August growth softened due to religious holiday. Domestic cement sales in Aug11 recorded 3.6mn tons, fell by 0.3% yoy and 17.7% qoq. This was expected following religious festive period when similar trend occurred at least in the past 5 years. Yet, cement sales was helped by the boom in property sector and progressing infrastructure works, as indicated by the strong 16.3% growth in bulk cement sales, while bag segment fell 3.8% yoy. Growth in Jakarta (5.1%) and West Java (1.2%) also supported the argument, besides notable growth seen in resource-rich regions, including Sulawesi (42.7% yoy) and Kalimantan (+4.5% yoy). All concludes to domestic cumulative sales of 31.3mn tons, which increased by 13.1% yoy, a little softer than in the previous month of 15.1% yoy.

SMCB tackled the two giants. SMCB lead the pack in terms of growth in Aug, by posting 16.8% yoy growth, while INTP’s was flat 0.1% yoy and SMGR even recorded a decline of 8.3% yoy. As a result, SMCB’s Indonesia market share improved to 15.7%, which was the best since 2005. We see the key is on the company’s ability in tapping upbeat growth in areas outside Java, while sustaining market presence on its main areas, namely Jakarta and West Java that are experiencing bullish market condition. For INTP, despite of overall decline in Java region by 1.9% (70% of its sales), the company managed to mitigate this by strengthening its presence in areas outside Java, such as Sulawesi (+89.4% yoy), Kalimantan (3.1% yoy) and East Indonesia (40.9%), as a result of the recent improvement of the port in Tarjun, South Kalimantan that provides an additional 1mn tons cement to market. In the meantime, SMGR seemed to continue struggling in sustaining market share underpinned by weak pricing power, in our view. In Aug, SMGR market share contracted to 40.6%, the lowest, at least, in the past 6 years.

Sales should rebound in Sept11. While we don’t see any major event yet that would cloud cement demand, including economic and weather factors, sales should rebound in Sept11 that sustain cumulative sales growth for the entire year. SMCB and INTP are still our favorites given stronger pricing power, supported by strong market presence in the ready-mix segment, which outlook continue to be buoyant. We maintain overweight on the sector.

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