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Selasa, 25 Januari 2011

JPM Indo: Agung Podomoro Land: Positive updates

We spoke with the management of APLN, to get a business update and assess performance relative to our current forecasts. Our positive view of the company stands reinforced. We maintain our OW stance for APLN with PT of Rp470, based on 15% discount to Dec-11 NAV.
·         * Marketing sales ahead of expectation: The company stated in its presentation that it achieved Rp2.7tr in FY10 marketing sales (excluding the marketing sales in the minority owned Lindeteves Trade Center), 46% higher than our estimate of Rp1.8tr. Better-than-expected marketing sales of Greenbay Pluit, Central Park Office, and Kuningan City Office drove the surprise. APLN aims to add new landbanks in FY11, suggesting our forecast of flat y/y marketing sales target is likely to be too conservative.
·         * Land-banking continues; positive news likely to flow in 1Q11. The company acquired around 14ha of landbank in South Jakarta (Ulujami area) in end of December for around Rp150-200bn and will start pre-marketing in end of January. We estimate the township development and apartment project would likely contribute additional Rp400bn of marketing sales in FY11. APLN also expects to acquire 2-4 new plots of land within 1Q11, including one likely to be outside of Jakarta and one within the strategic locations of Jakarta CBD.
·         * Projects running on-schedule. APLN currently views that its project deliveries and construction will be on-track. The company also stated that they have factored in 15% cost increases this year.
·         * Stock drivers & risks: We view new project launches as a positive catalyst for the company. Key risks: 1) Lack of launches of new projects as APLN's new projects are key for APLN's outperformance to its peers, (2) Delay on projects, (3) Lack of transparency on asset injections.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 11.02

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