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Selasa, 25 Januari 2011

CLSA Indo : Indonesia and India has been the worst performing market

Indonesia and India has been the worst performing market in the region YTD.  On the back of unprecedented reflation effort in the west + extreme weather patterns, these two markets will be one of the most sensitive with higher prices (food is big component to CPI + poor logistics). 

Looking back at history, the immense outpouring of printed money always achieve its intended effect, which was to produce prosperity.  Everyone benefits and no one pays.  That is early part of the cycle.  In the later inflation, effects are all bad.  There is just no free lunch.

The good news is that governments in this part of the world (with its strong balance sheet and fiscal positions) has the ability to control inflation.  In fact, Indonesia has survived and subsequently thrived on many episodes of inflation scare.  It’s only a scare because this inflation threat is from either one off government policy or temporary weather disruptions.  As oppose to money printing programs which always end up in tears. 

True that risk premium could rise as the market become more volatile.  But for anyone that has followed Indonesia for years, it has never been about smooth sailing.  In fact, seasoned investors here understand that volatility here is the best way to profit! 

Indonesia CPI roller coaster since 2005

In 2005, market corrected 12% in March when inflation picked up and another 20% in Aug when inflation peaked.   Despite the drawdowns, the JCI still managed to close up almost 20% for that year. 

Since the beginning of this year, market is down over 10%.  As always, it is impossible to pick the bottom but I would say from a fundamental point of view, good value starting to emerge.  Some if our top picks will be:

BCA (BBCA IJ) - Down 25% from peak now trading at 3.2x PB (back to 3 year historical mean).  They are beneficiary of higher rates because of its large variable rate bond portfolio.  Bank Negara (BBNI IJ) and Bank Jabar (BJBR IJ) also looks attractive now, respectively trading at 11.4x and 8.1x earnings 2011

United Tractors (UNTR IJ) - Down 25% despite better fundamentals from the coal space.  Paying 14x earnings for this 1st class cash rich operator.

Summarecon (SMRA IJ) - Down whopping 33%.  Now trading at 40%+ discount to NAV.  Strong recurrent income makes this the most attractive property play.   
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.59

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