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Rabu, 02 Februari 2011

JPM Indo: Sales Call Switch from PTBA into the other coal names

“Head of coal association Bob Kamandanu told reporters that PLN and coal producers have reached into agreement on coal pricing for 2011. It will be set based on average selling price for the last three months, plus 10% premium.” (Investor Daily).

My take – Stevanus Juanda (analyst) recently raised his year 2011 ASP assumption for PTBA, from US$81.6/ton to US$92.4/ton, compared to year 2010 ASP forecast of US$68.0/ton. On his new forecast the stock trades on 15.3x 2011 P/E, versus peer average of 12.3x. His FY10 EPS is 9% below consensus, while his FY11 EPS is 5% below.

His US$92.4/ton ASP assumption could be at risk. Implied from Steve’s FY10 forecast is the ASP of US$72.8/ton for 4Q10. If PLN wins the case and use 4Q10 ASP (plus 10%) to price its coal for year 2011, the realized ASP can be more than US$10/ton lower (vs Street’s assumption) for PTBA.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 09.00

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