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Rabu, 02 Februari 2011

JPM Indo: Aneka Tambang - Higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation and downside to nickel prices; sell into strength

•Higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation: Recently ANTM released its guidance for the gold operation for FY11. The cash cost of producing one t.oz of gold at US$750/t.oz is significantly higher than the originally expected cash cost of US$544/t.oz and also the 9M10 cash cost of US$564/t.oz. The company citied lower-than-expected production volume at the Pongkor gold mine, the unavailability of highgrade veins, and the unavailability of low-cost veins as the main reasons. With these, we lower our FY11 net income forecast by 3% to Rp1,694B, which is 8% below the consensus estimate.

•Downside to nickel prices; sell into strength: J.P. Morgan’s global metals strategist, Michael Jansen, in his report titled, “Base and Precious Metals Daily Nickel – a little left in the tank but a compelling medium term sell at $28k-$30k”, published on January28, 2011, views that the nickel price could peak in the range of US$28,000–US$30,000/ton on the back of faster growth in supply than demand. Jansen expects nickel to trade around US$22,000/ton by the year end. In view of this, we recommend selling ANTM into strength.

•Investment drivers: Negatives: (1) High production costs for the gold operation; (2) a Q/Q decline in nickel price working against the stock’s performance; (3) rising oil price translate into rising costs; and (4) no significant progress on ANTM’s projects. Positives: (1) Rising preciousmetal prices generating higher profits; (2) a strong Y/Y profit growth in FY11E; and (3) unrecognized upside value in the joint ventures.

•Downgrade to UW from OW, extend and lower our price target to Rp2,000: With lower volume and higher-than-expected costs for the gold operation, declining nickel prices, and higher costs due to the rising oil price, we downgrade ANTM from OW to UW. We also extend the time horizon of our price target from June-11 to Dec-11 and lower our price target from Rp3,250 to Rp2,000. Our price target is derived from the average of our DCF and SOTP valuations.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 12.46

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