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Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS IJ, Rp3,750 BUY) Steady Flow - Danareksa Sekuritas

BP Migas to prioritize oil production
Falling oil production raises concerns for the government since revenues from oil exports remain important to balance out the cost of imported oil for consumption. In the past five years, oil production has been below 1.0mn barrels per day. This has prompted BP Migas to prioritize an increase in lifting capacity, including a shift in gas production to old oil fields. This is also the case for Conoco Phillips’s gas production. Instead of delivering gas to PGAS, Chevron was given priority to use Conoco Phillips’ gas in order to boost oil lifting capacity. Chevron has relatively old oil wells and they need to be injected with hot gas to lift the oil to the surface. As a consequence of this policy, PGAS’s gas allocation is below the contract numbers. Currently, Conoco Phillips is only able to provide 300-350 mmscfd of gas to PGAS, below its contract of 375mmscfd.

Shortfall from Pertamina as well
PGAS also has a gas purchase agreement with Pertamina amounting to 250 mmcfd. However, for unspecified reasons Pertamina has only been able to supply around 170-180 mmscfd or a maximum of 200mmscfd, which falls short of the initial volume under the sale and purchase agreement. PGAS has not been able to confirm when Pertamina will be able to deliver the gas as promised. So far PGAS has not imposed any penalty on Pertamina because of the shortfall. The management guidance of gas volume is around 800-850 mmscfd (which takes into account the shortfall from Pertamina and Conoco Phillips). Our estimate is below 800 mmscfd for the next five years, already reflecting the current situation.

Construction to start on West Java floating terminal
PGAS has started construction on the LNG receiving terminal in West Java. Total capex allocated for this project is around US$100mn, mainly for the onshore facility, pipeline and jetty. This capex excludes the FSRU unit as PGAS intends to lease the vessel from Golar Energy, a global FSRU operator. By leasing the vessel, PGAS will not bear the capex for the FSRU and operating start-up time could be faster. PGAS would, however, be liable to pay certain amounts that comprise maintenance and operational expenses. PGAS is fully aware of the lack of expertise it has in operating and maintaining such a unit. The total capacity of the receiving terminal is designed to handle gas of 500mmscfd. However, PGAS has so far only been able to secure around 140mmscfd that will be directly allocated to PLN. According to PGAS, this is basically the break-even volume. Any volume above that amount will translate into profits for PGAS. This project is under PT Regas Nusantara, a joint venture between PGAS (40%) and Pertamina (60%). The project is expected to start commercial operation in 2H12 or early FY13.

Maintain BUY
We have already incorporated the shortfall of gas supply from Conoco Phillips and Pertamina in our model. We have not included the upside potential from the LNG receiving terminal due to a lack of gas supply at the current time. With these assumptions we arrive at a DCF Target Price of Rp5,430. BUY maintained.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 22.56

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