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Jumat, 25 Februari 2011

London Sumatra - 4Q10: Soft CPO output covered by rubber price surge - Credit Suisse

● LSIP reported 79.5% YoY, 74.8% QoQ 4Q10A earnings jump, supported by strong 4Q10A rubber price. LSIP’s FY10A earnings are up by 46.1% YoY, 14% ahead of our forecast and 4% ahead of consensus.

● 4Q10A CPO output was down by 0.5% YoY, up by 13.2% QoQ, but remained 8% below our FY10E forecasts. LSIP 4Q10A robust earnings growth has largely been driven by the surge in rubber prices with contribution of rubber to LSIP’s revenues jumping from 11% in FY09A to 15% in FY10A.

● Given LSIP’s weak FY10A CPO output, we reduce our FY11-12E CPO output forecast by 5.2%. We tweak down our FY11-12E earnings forecasts for LSIP by 1.2-2.7% on lower CPO output assumptions.

● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on LSIP and lower our target price from Rp13,030/share to Rp12,900/share as we reduce our FY11E earning estimates. Our target price for LSIP is based on 15x 2011E P/E.

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