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Selasa, 22 Maret 2011

ELSA: Stimulating upstream services - Mandiri Sekuritas

PT Elnusa (ELSA) recorded revenue growth of 14.8% yoy to Rp4.2tn. Nonetheless, surging COGS pulled down its gross and operating margins quite significantly. Consequently, net income plunged by 86.3% yoy to Rp64bn. Integrated downstream services, which now contributes 40% to revenue, grew strongly by 80.3% yoy, while upstream services remained flat. This year, ELSA is maxing out its upstream segment with vast capex allocation of US$100.2mn as the growth was relatively flat. Furthermore, to boost its capacity and in anticipation of the eventual implementation of the cabotage law, ELSA is forming a joint venture with a foreign partner to rent out the first Indonesian-flagged seismic vessels. The development would arguably improve ELSA’s margin, especia lly in the marine seismic services.

Declining operating margin. Elnusa (ELSA) recorded increasing revenue to Rp4.2tn (+14.8% yoy, +10.6% qoq), due to strong growth in downstream services. However, as a result of significant COGS increase in FY10 of Rp3.8tn (+22% yoy), gross and operating margin declined to 9.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Moreover, net income of Rp64bn (-86.3% yoy), due to significant non-recurring revenues in the previous period (e.g. one time gain from IMN divestment and other revenues).

Flat upstream services, push expansion. ELSA’s integrated upstream services business was relatively steady at Rp2.2tn (52% of total revenue), which was due to lower drilling-rig utilization and the implementation of high-tech rigs. Meanwhile, the downstream segment was up to Rp2.0tn (+80.3% yoy) and contributed 47% to total revenue (FY09: 30%). ELSA can’t simply count on its downstream business as it has relatively small margin. Thus to fortify its upstream business, ELSA has allocated capex for the upstream segment of about US$100.2mn (+238% yoy) in 2011. For 2011, ELSA expects revenue will grow by 30.7% yoy to Rp5.5tn, while net income will significantly grow by around 280% yoy.

Aiming more geosciences contracts. As of FY10, ELSA has secured US$44.3mn and US$83.5mn marine (GDP) and land (GDL) seismic contracts, respectively. ELSA is currently chasing another tender totaling around US$60.0mn and US$53.5mn each. ELSA has also intention to go to deep water seismic. In addition, despite the exemption of the cabotage law on the oil-related vessels, ELSA is now on talk with a foreign partner to rent out seismic vessels, carrying Indonesia flag. This, according to the company, will improve marine seismic margin in the future.

At par PER 11F. We have no rating on ELSA and there are no consensus multiples figures currently. However, using ELSA’s 2011 earnings forecast (EPS11: Rp24.5/share), ELSA is currently traded at PER 11.8x (peers average: 11.5x).
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.41

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