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Selasa, 22 Maret 2011

Indofood Sukses Makmur: Buy; Rp4,950; TP Rp6,050; INDF IJ Strong 4Q10 results - DBS Vickers

• 4Q10 net earnings came in at Rp705.1bn (-16% q-o-q, +41% y-o-y) – in line
• 4Q10 EBIT was slightly ahead on sales and lower-than-expected costs
• Expect a strong 2H11 on higher noodle ASP, lower feedstock costs; FY11F-13F EPS adjusted by -3 to +3%.
• Buy call reiterated for 22% upside to Rp6,050 TP.

4Q10 results in line. Indofood (INDF) booked 4Q10 net profit of Rp705.1bn (-16% q-o-q, +41% y-o-y), bringing FY10 earnings to Rp2,952.9bn (+42% y-o-y) – in line with expectations. However, 4Q10 group operating profit of Rp1,868.9bn and pretax of Rp1,481.2bn were higher than anticipated on both stronger sales and lower costs. This was on the back of higher Bogasari sales volume and lower wheat costs during the quarter (we understand average landed price was US$280-300/MT – lower than US$343 expected). Net gearing (ex MI) dropped to 20.4% from 122.9% in FY09 on proceeds from ICBP spin off.

Strong segmental results. Last year INDF secured market share of 52% for Bogasari, c.73-77% for noodles (i.e. based on external and internal estimations) – relatively unchanged from 2009.Higher contributions from Agribusiness and CBP were due to stronger CPO and noodle ASPs as well as higher volumes. Although Bogasari raised ASPs on its lower-end products by c.5%, impact was insignificant. Bogasari’s resilient results were mainly due to lower-than-expected realized wheat costs.

FY11F-13F adjusted by -3 to +3% after imputing FY10 results. We expect noodle volumes to grow c.4% p.a. in FY11F and FY12F with noodle ASPs rising c.3.5% in each year. Bogasari is assumed to grow FY11F-12F volumes by c.2.5% p.a. with ASP declining 3% p.a. on lower feedstock costs. FY11 capex guidance is Rp5.1trn, mainly for CBP’s capacity expansion and new oil palm planting (20k ha). We forecast Rp2.3trn outlay this year, given last year’s lower-than-budgeted realization.

Buy call reiterated. TP is adjusted marginally to Rp6,050, primarily on lower IndoAgri valuation. We continue to expect strong earnings growth in 2H11, backed by lower feedstock costs, higher volumes for both the group’s noodle and flour segments.

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