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Rabu, 27 April 2011

ASEAN Monthly CPO Update Developments in Competing Oils - Citigroup

 CPO price vs. soya oil price — Futures CPO price is hovering around US$1,100/t (RM3,300/t). Currently futures CPO price is at a US$169/t discount to futures soya oil price. With improving price competitiveness versus soya oil, there is a rising likelihood that palm oil will gain market share. We are maintaining our average CPO price of US$1,050/t for 2011 as rising production in 2H11 should result in CPO price trending down in 2H. The LT correlation between CPO and soya oil is 0.91.

 CPO production estimates — We now forecast global CPO production to grow by about 4% for CY2011 versus 1.1% in CY2010. Global stock usage ratio estimated at 15.4% for 2011 versus 15.5% in 2010.

 Development in soya — Soybean harvesting is 92% done in Brazil and almost complete in Mato Grosso as of 20 April according to Oil World. In Argentina , soybean harvesting was completed on 54% of the area as of 20 April. In recent weeks, China cancelled around 10 soybean cargoes (about 500,000 mt) and this is expected to result in lower soybean exports to China in April. Importers are trying to cancel/postpone delivery of soybeans given the deterioration of crush margins in China stemming from price controls on vegetable oils.

 Rapeseed output down — After palm oil and soya oil, rapeseed oil would be the next biggest contributor to 17 oils & fats, make up around 13% of total oils & fats. Drier than usual conditions will curb yield potential especially in Germany . According to Oil World estimates, rapeseed production in the European Union may decline to a 3-year low of 20.1m tonne in 2011. The LT correlation between CPO and rapeseed oil is 0.87.

 Malaysian exports — Based on statistics from Societe Generale de Surveillance (SGS), Malaysian exports for the first 25 days of April decline marginally by 0.7% MoM to 947,470 mt. Rising MoM exports to China , EU countries, Egypt and India . Lower MoM exports to Pakistan and USA .

 Export tax in Indonesia — Government of Indonesia may cut its export tax on CPO to 17.5% in May 2011 from the current 22.5% given recent declines in international palm oil prices.

 Company specific events to drive stock prices — Unless weather conditions deteriorates further, we think it will be more company specific events that will drive stock prices up. Among Malaysian planters, we think Sime Darby would likely announce more good news in the months to come. Among Indonesian planters, Indofood Agri and London Sumatra have the potential to benefit on news of the planned listing of Salim Ivomas (SIMP) in June 2011.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 10.17

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