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Kamis, 28 April 2011

INDO TAMBANGRAYA (ITMG): In-line 1Q11 sales volume -15% YoY – reit Buy! - Credit Suisse

1Q EPS to be strong despite 1Q volume in-line but rather weak. EPS Sensitivities Analysis to US$10/bbl rise in oil coal price is -2.3%, 5% volume shortfall is -5.5%, and US$10/t rise in coal benchmark price is +8.7%. At Rp47,600/share, ITMG IJ is trading on 13.3x 2011F PER and implying 20% upside to end-2011F Target Price Rp57,000 (based on 16x 2011F PER), we reiterate BUY ITMG!

· Investor Daily newspaper: ITMG 1Q11 coal sales reached 5.2 mn tonnes (-14.7% YoY, 20.8% of our FY11E assumption) with the average selling price (ASP) of US$80/ tonne (+19.4% YoY). The company managed to produce 5.5 mn tonnes of coal in 1Q11 (22% of company’s target of 25 mn tonnes), ITMG Finance Director Edward Manurung said.

· Paworamon Suvarnatemee: Management expect 11mnt in 1H and the rest (14mnt) to be done in 2H with two new mines starting up then. Therefore, the company said it is in line w their mining plan. An unknown for the 1Q is actually the derivatives gain/loss.
Posted by Saham Pilihan at 13.18

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